Search

Instead of testing for unanimous agreement, I propose learning how broad of a consensus favors one distribution over another (of earnings, productivity, asset returns, test scores, etc.). Specifically, given a sample from each of two distributions, I propose statistical inference methods to learn about the set of utility functions for which the first distribution has higher expected utility than the second distribution. With high probability, an "inner" confidence set is contained within this true set, while an "outer" confidence set contains the true set. Such confidence sets can be formed by inverting a proposed multiple testing procedure that controls the familywise error rate. Theoretical justification comes from empirical process results, given that very large classes of utility functions are generally Donsker (subject to finite moments). The theory additionally justifies a uniform (over utility functions) confidence band of expected utility differences, as well as tests with a utility-based "restricted stochastic dominance" as either the null or alternative hypothesis. Simulated and empirical examples illustrate the methodology., Comment: accepted manuscript

The NANOGrav 15-year data provides compelling evidence for a stochastic gravitational-wave (GW) background at nanohertz frequencies. The simplest model-independent approach to characterizing the frequency spectrum of this signal consists in a simple power-law fit involving two parameters: an amplitude A and a spectral index \gamma. In this paper, we consider the next logical step beyond this minimal spectral model, allowing for a running (i.e., logarithmic frequency dependence) of the spectral index, \gamma_run(f) = \gamma + \beta \ln(f/f_ref). We fit this running-power-law (RPL) model to the NANOGrav 15-year data and perform a Bayesian model comparison with the minimal constant-power-law (CPL) model, which results in a 95% credible interval for the parameter \beta consistent with no running, \beta \in [-0.80,2.96], and an inconclusive Bayes factor, B(RPL vs. CPL) = 0.69 +- 0.01. We thus conclude that, at present, the minimal CPL model still suffices to adequately describe the NANOGrav signal; however, future data sets may well lead to a measurement of nonzero \beta. Finally, we interpret the RPL model as a description of primordial GWs generated during cosmic inflation, which allows us to combine our results with upper limits from big-bang nucleosynthesis, the cosmic microwave background, and LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA., Comment: 17 pages, 4 figures, 2 tables

Pulsar-timing-array experiments have reported evidence for a stochastic background of nanohertz gravitational waves consistent with the signal expected from a population of supermassive--black-hole binaries. Those analyses assume power-law spectra for intrinsic pulsar noise and for the background, as well as a Hellings--Downs cross-correlation pattern among the gravitational-wave--induced residuals across pulsars. These assumptions are idealizations that may not be realized in actuality. We test them in the NANOGrav 15 yr data set using Bayesian posterior predictive checks: after fitting our fiducial model to real data, we generate a population of simulated data-set replications, and use them to assess whether the optimal-statistic significance, inter-pulsar correlations, and spectral coefficients assume extreme values for the real data when compared to the replications. We confirm that the NANOGrav 15 yr data set is consistent with power-law and Hellings--Downs assumptions. We also evaluate the evidence for the stochastic background using posterior-predictive versions of the frequentist optimal statistic and of Bayesian model comparison, and find comparable significance (3.2\ $\sigma$ and 3\ $\sigma$ respectively) to what was previously reported for the standard statistics. We conclude with novel visualizations of the reconstructed gravitational waveforms that enter the residuals for each pulsar. Our analysis strengthens confidence in the identification and characterization of the gravitational-wave background as reported by NANOGrav., Comment: 20 pages, 14 Figures

Late-time ($\sim$ year) radio follow-up of optically-discovered tidal disruption events (TDEs) is increasingly resulting in detections at radio wavelengths, and there is growing evidence for this late-time radio activity to be common to the broad class of sub-relativistic TDEs. Detailed studies of some of these TDEs at radio wavelengths are also challenging the existing models for radio emission. Using all-sky multi-epoch data from the Australian Square Kilometre Array Pathfinder (ASKAP), taken as a part of the Rapid ASKAP Continuum Survey (RACS), we searched for radio counterparts to a sample of optically-discovered TDEs. We detected late-time emission at RACS frequencies (742-1032\,MHz) in five TDEs, reporting the independent discovery of radio emission from TDE AT2019ahk and extending the time baseline out to almost 3000\,days for some events. Overall, we find that at least $22^{+15}_{-11}$\% of the population of optically-discovered TDEs has detectable radio emission in the RACS survey, while also noting that the true fraction can be higher given the limited cadence (2 epochs separated by $\sim 3\,$ years) of the survey. Finally, we project that the ongoing higher-cadence ($\sim 2$\,months) ASKAP Variable and Slow Transients (VAST) survey can detect $\sim 20$ TDEs in its operational span (4\,yrs), given the current rate from optical surveys., Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ, comments welcome

Based on the rate of change of its orbital period, PSR J2043+1711 has a substantial peculiar acceleration of 3.5 $\pm$ 0.8 mm/s/yr, which deviates from the acceleration predicted by equilibrium Milky Way models at a $4\sigma$ level. The magnitude of the peculiar acceleration is too large to be explained by disequilibrium effects of the Milky Way interacting with orbiting dwarf galaxies ($\sim$1 mm/s/yr), and too small to be caused by period variations due to the pulsar being a redback. We identify and examine two plausible causes for the anomalous acceleration: a stellar flyby, and a long-period orbital companion. We identify a main-sequence star in \textit{Gaia} DR3 and Pan-STARRS DR2 with the correct mass, distance, and on-sky position to potentially explain the observed peculiar acceleration. However, the star and the pulsar system have substantially different proper motions, indicating that they are not gravitationally bound. However, it is possible that this is an unrelated star that just happens to be located near J2043+1711 along our line of sight (chance probability of 1.6\%). Therefore, we also constrain possible orbital parameters for a circumbinary companion in a hierarchical triple system with J2043+1711; the changes in the spindown rate of the pulsar are consistent with an outer object that has an orbital period of 80 kyr, a companion mass of 0.3 $M_\odot$ (indicative of a white dwarf or low-mass star), and a semi-major axis of 2000 AU. Continued timing and/or future faint optical observations of J2043+1711 may eventually allow us to differentiate between these scenarios.

Dark matter may exist today in the form of ultraheavy composite bound states. Collisions between such dark matter states can release intense bursts of radiation that includes gamma-rays among the final products. Thus, indirect-detection signals of dark matter may include unconventional gamma-ray bursts. Such bursts may have been missed not necessarily because of their low arriving gamma-ray fluxes, but rather their briefness and rareness. We point out that intense bursts whose non-detection thus far are due to the latter can be detected in the near future with existing and planned facilities. In particular, we propose that, with slight experimental adjustments and suitable data analyses, imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescopes (IACTs) and Pulsed All-sky Near-infrared and Optical Search for Extra-Terrestrial Intelligence (PANOSETI) are promising tools for detecting such rare, brief, but intense bursts. We also show that if we assume these bursts originate from collisions of dark matter states, IACTs and PANOSETI can probe a large dark matter parameter space beyond existing limits. Additionally, we present a concrete model of dark matter that produces bursts potentially detectable in these instruments.

We report on the results of an image-based search for pulsar candidates toward the Galactic bulge. We used mosaic images from the MeerKAT radio telescope, that were taken as part of a 173 deg**2 survey of the bulge and Galactic center of our Galaxy at L band (856-1712 MHz) in all four Stokes I, Q, U and V. The image root-mean-square noise levels of 12-17 uJy/ba represent a significant increase in sensitivity over past image-based pulsar searches. Our primary search criterion was circular polarization, but we used other criteria including linear polarization, in-band spectral index, compactness, variability and multi-wavelength counterparts to select pulsar candidates. We first demonstrate the efficacy of this technique by searching for polarized emission from known pulsars, and comparing our results with measurements from the literature. Our search resulted in a sample of 75 polarized pulsar candidates. Bright stars or young stellar objects were associated with 28 of these sources, including a small sample of highly polarized dwarf stars with pulsar-like steep spectra. Comparing the properties of this sample with the known pulsars, we identified 30 compelling candidates for pulsation follow-up, including two sources with both strong circular and linear polarization. The remaining 17 sources are either pulsars or stars, but we cannot rule out an extragalactic origin or image artifacts among the brighter, flat spectrum objects., Comment: 28 pages, 10 figures, 6 tables. ApJ, submitted

We describe a gyroscope that measures rotation based on the effects of the rotation on the polarization of light. Rotation induces a differential phase shift in the propagation of left and right circularly polarized light and this phase shift can be measured in suitably designed interferometric setups. The signal in this setup is independent of the frequency of light, unlike various sources of noise such as vibrations, which cause phase shifts that depend on the frequency. Such vibrations are the practical limit on the sensitivity of conventional Sagnac-style optical interferometers that are typically used as gyroscopes. In the proposed setup, one can potentially mitigate this source of noise by simultaneously using two (or more) sources of light that have different frequencies. The signal in this setup scales with the total storage time of the light. Due to its frequency independence, it is thus most optimal to measure the signal using superconducting RF systems where the high finesse of the available cavities enables considerably longer storage times than is possible in an optical setup., Comment: 15 pages, 1 figure

Several sources of repeating coherent bursts of radio emission with periods of many minutes have now been reported in the literature. These ``ultra-long period'' (ULP) sources have no clear multi-wavelength counterparts and challenge canonical pulsar emission models, leading to debate regarding their nature. In this work we report the discovery of a bright, highly-polarised burst of radio emission at low Galactic latitude as part of a wide-field survey for transient and variable radio sources. ASKAP\,J175534.9$-$252749.1 does not appear to repeat, with only a single intense two-minute $\sim 200$\,mJy burst detected from 60~hours of observations. The burst morphology and polarisation properties are comparable to those of classical pulsars but the duration is more than one hundred times longer, analogous to ULPs. No comparable bursts are detected in the rest of our widefield survey to date. Combined with the existing ULP population, this suggests that these sources have a strong Galactic latitude dependence and hints at an unexplored population of transient and variable radio sources in the thin disk of the Milky Way. The resemblance of this burst with both ULPs and pulsars calls for a unified coherent emission model for objects with spin periods from milliseconds to tens of minutes. However, whether or not these are all neutron stars or have the same underlying power source remains open for debate.

We present a systematic search for tidal disruption events (TDEs) using radio data from the Variables and Slow Transients (VAST) Pilot Survey conducted using the Australian Square Kilometre Array Pathfinder (ASKAP). Historically, TDEs have been identified using observations at X-ray, optical, and ultraviolet wavelengths. After discovery, a few dozen TDEs have been shown to have radio counterparts through follow-up observations. With systematic time-domain radio surveys becoming available, we can now identify new TDEs in the radio regime. A population of radio-discovered TDEs has the potential to provide several key insights including an independent constraint on their volumetric rate. We conducted a search to select variable radio sources with a single prominent radio flare and a position consistent within 2$\sigma$ of the nucleus of a known galaxy. While TDEs were the primary target of our search, sources identified in this search may also be consistent with active galactic nuclei exhibiting unusual flux density changes at the timescales probed, uncharacteristically bright supernovae, or a population of gamma-ray bursts. We identify a sample of 12 radio-bright candidate TDEs. The timescales and luminosities range from ~6 to 230 days and ~10$^{38}$ to 10$^{41}$ erg s$^{-1}$, consistent with models of radio emission from TDEs that launch relativistic jets. After calculating the detection efficiency of our search using a Monte Carlo simulation of TDEs, and assuming all 12 sources are jetted TDEs, we derive a volumetric rate for jetted TDEs of 0.80$^{+0.31}_{-0.23}$ Gpc$^{-3}$ yr$^{-1}$, consistent with previous empirically estimated rates., Comment: 37 pages, 37 figures, accepted to ApJ

It has been shown that some Lorentz-invariant quantum field theories, such as those with higher-dimensional operators with negative coefficients, lead to superluminality on some classical backgrounds. While superluminality by itself is not logically inconsistent, these theories also predict the formation of closed time-like curves at the classical level, starting from initial conditions without such curves. This leads to the formation of a Cauchy Horizon which prevents a complete description of the time evolution of such systems. Inspired by the chronology protection arguments of General Relativity, we show that quantum mechanical effects from low energy quanta strongly backreact on such configurations, exciting unknown short-distance degrees of freedom and invalidating the classical predictions. Thus, there is no obvious low-energy obstruction to the existence of these operators., Comment: 5 pages, 2 figures

Pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) are designed to detect low-frequency gravitational waves (GWs). GWs induce achromatic signals in PTA data, meaning that the timing delays do not depend on radio-frequency. However, pulse arrival times are also affected by radio-frequency dependent "chromatic" noise from sources such as dispersion measure (DM) and scattering delay variations. Furthermore, the characterization of GW signals may be influenced by the choice of chromatic noise model for each pulsar. To better understand this effect, we assess if and how different chromatic noise models affect achromatic noise properties in each pulsar. The models we compare include existing DM models used by NANOGrav and noise models used for the European PTA Data Release 2 (EPTA DR2). We perform this comparison using a subsample of six pulsars from the NANOGrav 15 yr data set, selecting the same six pulsars as from the EPTA DR2 six-pulsar dataset. We find that the choice of chromatic noise model noticeably affects the achromatic noise properties of several pulsars. This is most dramatic for PSR J1713+0747, where the amplitude of its achromatic red noise lowers from $\log_{10}A_{\text{RN}} = -14.1^{+0.1}_{-0.1}$ to $-14.7^{+0.3}_{-0.5}$, and the spectral index broadens from $\gamma_{\text{RN}} = 2.6^{+0.5}_{-0.4}$ to $\gamma_{\text{RN}} = 3.5^{+1.2}_{-0.9}$. We also compare each pulsar's noise properties with those inferred from the EPTA DR2, using the same models. From the discrepancies, we identify potential areas where the noise models could be improved. These results highlight the potential for custom chromatic noise models to improve PTA sensitivity to GWs.

During the first half of the fourth observing run (O4a) of the International Gravitational Wave Network (IGWN), the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) conducted a systematic search for kilonova (KN) counterparts to binary neutron star (BNS) and neutron star-black hole (NSBH) merger candidates. Here, we present a comprehensive study of the five high-significance (FAR < 1 per year) BNS and NSBH candidates in O4a. Our follow-up campaigns relied on both target-of-opportunity observations (ToO) and re-weighting of the nominal survey schedule to maximize coverage. We describe the toolkit we have been developing, Fritz, an instance of SkyPortal, instrumental in coordinating and managing our telescope scheduling, candidate vetting, and follow-up observations through a user-friendly interface. ZTF covered a total of 2841 deg$^2$ within the skymaps of the high-significance GW events, reaching a median depth of g~20.2 mag. We circulated 15 candidates, but found no viable KN counterpart to any of the GW events. Based on the ZTF non-detections of the high-significance events in O4a, we used a Bayesian approach, nimbus, to quantify the posterior probability of KN model parameters that are consistent with our non-detections. Our analysis favors KNe with initial absolute magnitude fainter than -16 mag. The joint posterior probability of a GW170817-like KN associated with all our O4a follow-ups was 64%. Additionally, we use a survey simulation software, simsurvey, to determine that our combined filtered efficiency to detect a GW170817-like KN is 36%, when considering the 5 confirmed astrophysical events in O3 (1 BNS and 4 NSBH), along with our O4a follow-ups. Following Kasliwal et al. (2020), we derived joint constraints on the underlying KN luminosity function based on our O3 and O4a follow-ups, determining that no more than 76% of KNe fading at 1 mag/day can peak at a magnitude brighter than -17.5 mag., Comment: submitted

Motivated by the quantum description of gauge theories, we study the cosmological effects of relaxing the Hamiltonian and momentum constraints in general relativity and Gauss' law in electromagnetism. We show that the unconstrained theories have new source terms that mimic a pressureless dust and a charge density that only follows geodesics. The source terms may be the simplest explanation for dark matter and generically predict a charged component. We comment that discovery of such terms would rule out inflation and be a direct probe of the initial conditions of the universe., Comment: 6 pages

PINT is a pure-Python framework for high-precision pulsar timing developed on top of widely used and well-tested Python libraries, supporting both interactive and programmatic data analysis workflows. We present a new frequentist framework within PINT to characterize the single-pulsar noise processes present in pulsar timing datasets. This framework enables the parameter estimation for both uncorrelated and correlated noise processes as well as the model comparison between different timing and noise models in a computationally inexpensive way. We demonstrate the efficacy of the new framework by applying it to simulated datasets as well as a real dataset of PSR B1855+09. We also describe the new features implemented in PINT since it was first described in the literature., Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ

We present the Sydney Radio Star Catalogue, a new catalogue of stars detected at megahertz to gigahertz radio frequencies. It consists of 839 unique stars with 3,405 radio detections, more than doubling the previously known number of radio stars. We have included stars from large area searches for radio stars found using circular polarisation searches, cross-matching, variability searches, and proper motion searches as well as presenting hundreds of newly detected stars from our search of Australian SKA Pathfinder observations. The focus of this first version of the catalogue is on objects detected in surveys using SKA precursor instruments; however we will expand this scope in future versions. The 839 objects in the Sydney Radio Star Catalogue are distributed across the whole sky and range from ultracool dwarfs to Wolf-Rayet stars. We find that the radio luminosities of cool dwarfs are lower than the radio luminosities of more evolved sub-giant and giant stars. We use X-ray detections of 530 radio stars by the eROSITA soft X-ray instrument onboard the SRG spacecraft to show that almost all of the radio stars in the catalogue are over-luminous in the radio, indicating that the majority of stars at these radio frequencies are coherent radio emitters. The Sydney Radio Star Catalogue can be found in Vizier or at https://radiostars.org., Comment: 21 pages, 8 Figures, 7 Tables, Submitted to PASA

The cosmic merger history of supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs) is expected to produce a low-frequency gravitational wave background (GWB). Here we investigate how signs of the discrete nature of this GWB can manifest in pulsar timing arrays through excursions from, and breaks in, the expected $f_{\mathrm{GW}}^{-2/3}$ power-law of the GWB strain spectrum. To do this, we create a semi-analytic SMBHB population model, fit to NANOGrav's 15 yr GWB amplitude, and with 1,000 realizations we study the populations' characteristic strain and residual spectra. Comparing our models to the NANOGrav 15 yr spectrum, we find two interesting excursions from the power-law. The first, at $2 \; \mathrm{nHz}$, is below our GWB realizations with $p$-value significance $p = 0.05$ to $0.06$ ($\approx 1.8 \sigma - 1.9 \sigma$). The second, at $16 \; \mathrm{nHz}$, is above our GWB realizations with $p = 0.04$ to $0.15$ ($\approx 1.4 \sigma - 2.1 \sigma$). We explore the properties of a loud SMBHB which could cause such an excursion. Our simulations also show that the expected number of SMBHBs decreases by three orders of magnitude, from $\sim 10^6$ to $\sim 10^3$, between $2\; \mathrm{nHz}$ and $20 \; \mathrm{nHz}$. This causes a break in the strain spectrum as the stochasticity of the background breaks down at $26^{+28}_{-19} \; \mathrm{nHz}$, consistent with predictions pre-dating GWB measurements. The diminished GWB signal from SMBHBs at frequencies above the $26$~nHz break opens a window for PTAs to detect continuous GWs from individual SMBHBs or GWs from the early universe., Comment: 10 pages, 8 figures, 1 appendix, submitted to ApJ

We present the timing solution for the 5.31-ms spider millisecond pulsar (MSP) J1242-4712, discovered with the GMRT. PSR J1242-4712 orbits a companion of minimum mass 0.08 M$_{\odot}$ with an orbital period of 7.7 hrs and occupies a relatively unexplored region in the orbital period versus companion mass space. We did not detect gamma-ray pulsations for this MSP, and also could not identify the optical counterpart for PSR J1242-4712 in available optical/near-infrared data. The profile of J1242-4712 evolves with frequency showing a clear single component at lower frequencies and a three-component profile at 650 MHz. PSR J1242-4712 eclipses for a very short duration near superior conjunction (orbital phase ~ 0.23-0.25) below 360 MHz. Moreover, significant DM delays and errors in pulse times of arrivals are observed near inferior conjunction (orbital phase ~ 0.7), along with an observed eclipse in one epoch at 650 MHz. Observed eclipses and significant orbital period variability suggest that PSR J1242-4712 is possibly not a He-WD binary, but has a semi or non-degenerate companion, indicating that this is a ``spider" MSP lying in a region between typical black widows and redbacks. This system may represent a distinct category of spider MSPs, displaying characteristics that bridge the gap between known black widow and redback MSPs., Comment: 13 pages, 8 figures, 2 tables. Accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journal

Model uncertainty is pervasive in real world analysis situations and is an often-neglected issue in applied statistics. However, standard approaches to the research process do not address the inherent uncertainty in model building and, thus, can lead to overconfident and misleading analysis interpretations. One strategy to incorporate more flexible models is to base inferences on predictive modeling. This approach provides an alternative to existing explanatory models, as inference is focused on the posterior predictive distribution of the response variable. Predictive modeling can advance explanatory ambitions in the social sciences and in addition enrich the understanding of social phenomena under investigation. Bayesian stacking is a methodological approach rooted in Bayesian predictive modeling. In this paper, we outline the method of Bayesian stacking but add to it the approach of posterior predictive checking (PPC) as a means of assessing the predictive quality of those elements of the stacking ensemble that are important to the research question. Thus, we introduce a viable workflow for incorporating PPC into predictive modeling using Bayesian stacking without presuming the existence of a true model. We apply these tools to the PISA 2018 data to investigate potential inequalities in reading competency with respect to gender and socio-economic background. Our empirical example serves as rough guideline for practitioners who want to implement the concepts of predictive modeling and model uncertainty in their work to similar research questions., Comment: 40 pages including abstract and references (23 pages without), 3 figures

The tentative identification of approximately ten relativistic anti-helium cosmic-ray events at AMS-02 would, if confirmed, challenge our understanding of the astrophysical synthesis of heavy anti-nuclei. We propose a novel scenario for the enhanced production of such anti-nuclei that is triggered by isolated, catastrophic injections of large quantities of energetic Standard Model (SM) anti-quarks in our galaxy by physics beyond the Standard Model (BSM). We demonstrate that SM anti-nucleosynthetic processes that occur in the resulting rapidly expanding, thermalized fireballs of SM plasma can, for a reasonable range of parameters, produce the reported tentative $\sim 2:1$ ratio of anti-helium-3 to anti-helium-4 events at AMS-02, as well as their relativistic boosts. Moreover, we show that this can be achieved without violating anti-deuterium or anti-proton flux constraints for the appropriate anti-helium fluxes. A plausible BSM paradigm for the catastrophic injections is the collision of macroscopic composite dark-matter objects carrying large net anti-baryon number. Such a scenario would require these objects to be cosmologically stable, but to destabilize upon collision, promptly releasing a fraction of their mass energy into SM anti-particles within a tiny volume. We show that, in principle, the injection rate needed to attain the necessary anti-helium fluxes and the energetic conditions required to seed the fireballs appear possible to obtain in such a paradigm. We leave open the question of constructing a BSM particle physics model to realize this, but we suggest two concrete scenarios as promising targets for further investigation., Comment: 42 pages, 10 figures, journal version

Binaries containing a compact object orbiting a supermassive black hole are thought to be precursors of gravitational wave events, but their identification has been extremely challenging. Here, we report quasi-periodic variability in X-ray absorption which we interpret as quasi-periodic outflows (QPOuts) from a previously low-luminosity active galactic nucleus after an outburst, likely caused by a stellar tidal disruption. We rule out several models based on observed properties and instead show using general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic simulations that QPOuts, separated by roughly 8.3 days, can be explained with an intermediate-mass black hole secondary on a mildly eccentric orbit at a mean distance of about 100 gravitational radii from the primary. Our work suggests that QPOuts could be a new way to identify intermediate/extreme-mass ratio binary candidates., Comment: Accepted for publication in Science Advances. We report a new supermassive black hole phenomenon that we call quasi-periodic outflows (QPOuts)

We present an intensive multiwavelength monitoring campaign of the quasar PG 1302$-$102 with Swift and the Las Cumbres Observatory network telescopes. At $z\sim0.3$, it tests the limits of the reverberation mapping (RM) technique in probing the accretion disk around a supermassive black hole (SMBH) and extends the parameter space to high masses and high accretion rates. This is also the first time the RM technique has been applied to test disk structures predicted in the SMBH binary model that has been suggested for this source. PG 1302$-$102 was observed at a $\sim$daily cadence for $\sim 9$ months in 14 bands spanning from X-ray to UV and optical wavelengths, and it shows moderate to significant levels of variability correlated between wavelengths. We measure the inter-band time lags which are consistent with a $\tau \propto \lambda^{4/3}$ relation as expected from standard disk reprocessing, albeit with large errors. The disk size implied by the lag spectrum is consistent with the expected disk size for its black hole mass within uncertainties. While the source resembles other reverberation-mapped AGN in many respects, and we do not find evidence supporting the prevalent hypothesis that it hosts an SMBH binary, we demonstrate the feasibility of studying SMBH binaries from this novel angle and suggest possibilities for the LSST Deep Drilling Fields., Comment: 11 pages, 5 figures, 4 tables. Accepted for publication in ApJ. The full dataset will be available with the ApJ article

The population of radio-loud stars has to date been studied primarily through either targeted observations of a small number of highly active stars or widefield, single-epoch surveys that cannot easily distinguish stellar emission from background extra-Galactic sources. As a result it has been difficult to constrain population statistics such as the surface density and fraction of the population producing radio emission in a particular variable or spectral class. In this paper we present a sample of 36 radio stars detected in a circular polarisation search of the multi-epoch Variables and Slow Transients (VAST) pilot survey with ASKAP at 887.5~MHz. Through repeat sampling of the VAST pilot survey footprint we find an upper limit to the duty cycle of M-dwarf radio bursts of 8.5 per cent, and that at least $10 \pm 3$ per cent of the population should produce radio bursts more luminous than $10^{15}$ erg s$^{-1}$ Hz$^{-1}$. We infer a lower limit on the long-term surface density of such bursts in a shallow 1.25 mJy PSF$^{-1}$ sensitivity survey of $9^{+11}_{-7} \times 10^{-3}$ deg$^{-2}$ and an instantaneous radio star surface density of $1.7 \pm 0.2 \times 10^{-3}$ deg$^{-2}$ on 12 min timescales. Based on these rates we anticipate ${\sim}200 \pm 50$ new radio star detections per year over the full VAST survey and ${\sim}41\,000^{+10\,000}_{-9\,000}$ in next-generation all-sky surveys with the Square Kilometre Array., Comment: 14 pages, 9 figures, submitted to MNRAS

The phenomenon of unpaired Weyl fermions appearing on the sole 2n-dimensional boundary of a (2n+1)-dimensional manifold with massive Dirac fermions was recently analyzed in a companion paper by one of the authors. In this Letter we show that similar unpaired Weyl edge states can be seen on a finite lattice. In particular, we consider the discretized Hamiltonian for a Wilson fermion in (2+1) dimensions with a 1+1 dimensional boundary and continuous time. We demonstrate that the low lying boundary spectrum is indeed Weyl-like: it has a linear dispersion relation and definite chirality and circulates in only one direction around the boundary. We comment on how our results are consistent with Nielsen-Ninomiya theorem. This work removes one potential obstacle facing the program for regulating chiral gauge theories recently proposed by one of the authors., Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures. This version coincides with the version accepted for publication in Phys. Rev. Lett. on Jan. 26, 2024. Major changes include performing computations on a disk-shaped lattice instead of square, with corresponding changes in the figures. Supplemental material of the publication version has been included here as an appendix. Scientific conclusions have not changed

I demonstrate how chiral fermions with an exact gauge symmetry can appear on the d-dimensional boundary of a finite volume (d+1)-dimensional manifold, without any light mirror partners. The condition for the d-dimensional boundary theory to be local is that gauge anomalies cancel and that the volume be large. This can likely be achieved on a lattice and provides a new paradigm for the lattice regularization of chiral gauge theories., Comment: V3: updated to version accepted for publication by Phys. Rev. Lett. on Jan. 21, 2024. Rendered more concise, no changes in the physics

Large widefield surveys make possible the serendipitous discovery of rare sub-classes of pulsars. One such class are "spider"-type pulsar binaries, comprised of a pulsar in a compact orbit with a low-mass (sub)stellar companion. In a search for circularly-polarized radio sources in ASKAP Pilot Survey observations, we discovered highly variable and circularly polarized emission from a radio source within the error region of the $\gamma$-ray source {4FGL}~J1646.5$-$4406. The variability is consistent with the eclipse of a compact, steep-spectrum source behind ablated material from a companion in a $\sim 5.3\,$h binary orbit. Based on the eclipse properties and spatial coincidence with {4FGL} J1646.5$-$4406, we argue that the source is likely a recycled pulsar in a "redback" binary system. Using properties of the eclipses from ASKAP and Murchison Widefield Array observations, we provide broad constraints on the properties of the eclipse medium. We identified a potential optical/infra-red counterpart in archival data consistent with a variable low-mass star. Using the Parkes Radio Telescope "Murriyang" and MeerKAT, we searched extensively for radio pulsations but yielded no viable detections of pulsed emission. We suggest that the non-detection of pulses is due to scattering in the intra-binary material, but scattering from the ISM can also plausibly explain the pulse non-detections if the interstellar dispersion measure exceeds $\sim$600$\,$pc$\,$cm$^{-3}$. Orbital constraints derived from optical observations of the counterpart would be highly valuable for future $\gamma$-ray pulsation searches, which may confirm the source nature as a pulsar., Comment: Submitted to MNRAS. 13 Pages, 10 figures, 3 tables

Recently we found compelling evidence for a gravitational wave background with Hellings and Downs (HD) correlations in our 15-year data set. These correlations describe gravitational waves as predicted by general relativity, which has two transverse polarization modes. However, more general metric theories of gravity can have additional polarization modes which produce different interpulsar correlations. In this work we search the NANOGrav 15-year data set for evidence of a gravitational wave background with quadrupolar Hellings and Downs (HD) and Scalar Transverse (ST) correlations. We find that HD correlations are the best fit to the data, and no significant evidence in favor of ST correlations. While Bayes factors show strong evidence for a correlated signal, the data does not strongly prefer either correlation signature, with Bayes factors $\sim 2$ when comparing HD to ST correlations, and $\sim 1$ for HD plus ST correlations to HD correlations alone. However, when modeled alongside HD correlations, the amplitude and spectral index posteriors for ST correlations are uninformative, with the HD process accounting for the vast majority of the total signal. Using the optimal statistic, a frequentist technique that focuses on the pulsar-pair cross-correlations, we find median signal-to-noise-ratios of 5.0 for HD and 4.6 for ST correlations when fit for separately, and median signal-to-noise-ratios of 3.5 for HD and 3.0 for ST correlations when fit for simultaneously. While the signal-to-noise-ratios for each of the correlations are comparable, the estimated amplitude and spectral index for HD are a significantly better fit to the total signal, in agreement with our Bayesian analysis., Comment: 11 pages, 5 figures

Through evolution, nature has presented a set of remarkable protein materials, including elastins, silks, keratins and collagens with superior mechanical performances that play crucial roles in mechanobiology. However, going beyond natural designs to discover proteins that meet specified mechanical properties remains challenging. Here we report a generative model that predicts protein designs to meet complex nonlinear mechanical property-design objectives. Our model leverages deep knowledge on protein sequences from a pre-trained protein language model and maps mechanical unfolding responses to create novel proteins. Via full-atom molecular simulations for direct validation, we demonstrate that the designed proteins are novel, and fulfill the targeted mechanical properties, including unfolding energy and mechanical strength, as well as the detailed unfolding force-separation curves. Our model offers rapid pathways to explore the enormous mechanobiological protein sequence space unconstrained by biological synthesis, using mechanical features as target to enable the discovery of protein materials with superior mechanical properties.

We develop a quantitative method to assess the style of American poems and to visualize a collection of poems in relation to one another. Qualitative poetry criticism helped guide our development of metrics that analyze various orthographic, syntactic, and phonemic features. These features are used to discover comprehensive stylistic information from a poem's multi-layered latent structure, and to compute distances between poems in this space. Visualizations provide ready access to the analytical components. We demonstrate our method on several collections of poetry, showing that it better delineates poetry style than the traditional word-occurrence features that are used in typical text analysis algorithms. Our method has potential applications to academic research of texts, to research of the intuitive personal response to poetry, and to making recommendations to readers based on their favorite poems., Comment: accepted manuscript; see doi for version of record

In this article, I introduce the sivqr command, which estimates the coefficients of the instrumental variables (IV) quantile regression model introduced by Chernozhukov and Hansen (2005). The sivqr command offers several advantages over the existing ivqreg and ivqreg2 commands for estimating this IV quantile regression model, which complements the alternative "triangular model" behind cqiv and the "local quantile treatment effect" model of ivqte. Computationally, sivqr implements the smoothed estimator of Kaplan and Sun (2017), who show that smoothing improves both computation time and statistical accuracy. Standard errors are computed analytically or by Bayesian bootstrap; for non-iid sampling, sivqr is compatible with bootstrap. I discuss syntax and the underlying methodology, and I compare sivqr with other commands in an example., Comment: accepted manuscript

The radio galaxy 3C 66B has been hypothesized to host a supermassive black hole binary (SMBHB) at its center based on electromagnetic observations. Its apparent 1.05-year period and low redshift ($\sim0.02$) make it an interesting testbed to search for low-frequency gravitational waves (GWs) using Pulsar Timing Array (PTA) experiments. This source has been subjected to multiple searches for continuous GWs from a circular SMBHB, resulting in progressively more stringent constraints on its GW amplitude and chirp mass. In this paper, we develop a pipeline for performing Bayesian targeted searches for eccentric SMBHBs in PTA data sets, and test its efficacy by applying it on simulated data sets with varying injected signal strengths. We also search for a realistic eccentric SMBHB source in 3C 66B using the NANOGrav 12.5-year data set employing PTA signal models containing Earth term-only as well as Earth+Pulsar term contributions using this pipeline. Due to limitations in our PTA signal model, we get meaningful results only when the initial eccentricity $e_0<0.5$ and the symmetric mass ratio $\eta>0.1$. We find no evidence for an eccentric SMBHB signal in our data, and therefore place 95% upper limits on the PTA signal amplitude of $88.1\pm3.7$ ns for the Earth term-only and $81.74\pm0.86$ ns for the Earth+Pulsar term searches for $e_0<0.5$ and $\eta>0.1$. Similar 95% upper limits on the chirp mass are $(1.98 \pm 0.05) \times 10^9\,M_{\odot}$ and $(1.81 \pm 0.01) \times 10^9\,M_{\odot}$. These upper limits, while less stringent than those calculated from a circular binary search in the NANOGrav 12.5-year data set, are consistent with the SMBHB model of 3C 66B developed from electromagnetic observations., Comment: 27 Pages, 10 Figures, 1 Table, Accepted for publication in ApJ

Spider silks are remarkable materials characterized by superb mechanical properties such as strength, extensibility and lightweightedness. Yet, to date, limited models are available to fully explore sequence-property relationships for analysis and design. Here we propose a custom generative large-language model to enable design of novel spider silk protein sequences to meet complex combinations of target mechanical properties. The model, pretrained on a large set of protein sequences, is fine-tuned on ~1,000 major ampullate spidroin (MaSp) sequences for which associated fiber-level mechanical properties exist, to yield an end-to-end forward and inverse generative strategy. Performance is assessed through: (1), a novelty analysis and protein type classification for generated spidroin sequences through BLAST searches, (2) property evaluation and comparison with similar sequences, (3) comparison of molecular structures, as well as, and (4) a detailed sequence motif analyses. We generate silk sequences with property combinations that do not exist in nature, and develop a deep understanding the mechanistic roles of sequence patterns in achieving overarching key mechanical properties (elastic modulus, strength, toughness, failure strain). The model provides an efficient approach to expand the silkome dataset, facilitating further sequence-structure analyses of silks, and establishes a foundation for synthetic silk design and optimization.

We propose to use atoms and molecules as quantum sensors of axion-mediated monopole-dipole forces. We show that electron spin precession experiments using atomic and molecular beams are well-suited for axion searches thanks to the presence of co-magnetometer states and single-shot temporal resolution. Experimental strategies to detect axion gradients from localised sources and the earth are presented, taking ACME III as a prototype example. Other possibilities including atomic beams, and laser-cooled atoms and molecules are discussed., Comment: 9 pages, 2 figures. Comments welcome. V2: matches published version. Appendix on axion co-magnetometry added

We give a general derivation of Ginsparg-Wilson relations for both Dirac and Majorana fermions in any dimension. These relations encode continuous and discrete chiral, parity and time reversal anomalies and will apply to the various classes of free fermion topological insulators and superconductors (in the framework of a relativistic quantum field theory in Euclidean spacetime). We show how to formulate the exact symmetries of the lattice action and the relevant index theorems for the anomalies., Comment: 14 pages. Submitted Version. Section III.D revised, and other minor improvements

Analysis of pulsar timing data have provided evidence for a stochastic gravitational wave background in the nHz frequency band. The most plausible source of such a background is the superposition of signals from millions of supermassive black hole binaries. The standard statistical techniques used to search for such a background and assess its significance make several simplifying assumptions, namely: i) Gaussianity; ii) isotropy; and most often iii) a power-law spectrum. However, a stochastic background from a finite collection of binaries does not exactly satisfy any of these assumptions. To understand the effect of these assumptions, we test standard analysis techniques on a large collection of realistic simulated datasets. The dataset length, observing schedule, and noise levels were chosen to emulate the NANOGrav 15-year dataset. Simulated signals from millions of binaries drawn from models based on the Illustris cosmological hydrodynamical simulation were added to the data. We find that the standard statistical methods perform remarkably well on these simulated datasets, despite their fundamental assumptions not being strictly met. They are able to achieve a confident detection of the background. However, even for a fixed set of astrophysical parameters, different realizations of the universe result in a large variance in the significance and recovered parameters of the background. We also find that the presence of loud individual binaries can bias the spectral recovery of the background if we do not account for them., Comment: 14 pages, 8 figures, version matching published paper

We present the detection of 661 known pulsars observed with the Australian SKA Pathfinder (ASKAP) telescope at 888 MHz as a part of the Rapid ASKAP Continuum Survey (RACS). Detections were made through astrometric coincidence and we estimate the false alarm rate of our sample to be ~0.5%. Using archival data at 400 and 1400 MHz, we estimate the power law spectral indices for the pulsars in our sample and find that the mean spectral index is -1.78 +/- 0.6. However, we also find that a single power law is inadequate to model all the observed spectra. With the addition of the flux densities between 150 MHz and 3 GHz from various imaging surveys, we find that up to 40% of our sample shows deviations from a simple power law model. Using Stokes V measurements from the RACS data, we measured the circular polarization fraction for 9% of our sample and find that the mean polarization fraction is ~10% (consistent between detections and upper limits). Using the dispersion measure (DM) derived distance we estimate the pseudo luminosity of the pulsars and do not find any strong evidence for a correlation with the pulsars' intrinsic properties., Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ (18 pages, 16 figures), comments are welcome

We present the results of a Bayesian search for gravitational wave (GW) memory in the NANOGrav 12.5-yr data set. We find no convincing evidence for any gravitational wave memory signals in this data set (Bayes factor = 2.8). As such, we go on to place upper limits on the strain amplitude of GW memory events as a function of sky location and event epoch. These upper limits are computed using a signal model that assumes the existence of a common, spatially uncorrelated red noise in addition to a GW memory signal. The median strain upper limit as a function of sky position is approximately $3.3 \times 10^{-14}$. We also find that there are some differences in the upper limits as a function of sky position centered around PSR J0613$-$0200. This suggests that this pulsar has some excess noise which can be confounded with GW memory. Finally, the upper limits as a function of burst epoch continue to improve at later epochs. This improvement is attributable to the continued growth of the pulsar timing array., Comment: 29 pages, 5 figures

In this and companion papers, we show that quantum field theories with gauge symmetries permit a broader class of classical dynamics than typically assumed. In this article, we show that the quantization of electromagnetism permits the existence of classical electric field states that do not obey Gauss's law. These states are gauge invariant and their time evolution can be consistently described using the Schr\"{o}dinger equation. The time evolution of these states is such that at the classical level, the full set of Maxwell's equations would appear to hold, with the physical effects of these states being attributable to an auxiliary, static ``shadow'' charge density with no internal degrees of freedom. This density could affect the dynamics of charged particles in our universe and it may thus be of observational interest., Comment: 14 pages