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Abstract Background Carbon and water use efficiencies (CUE and WUE, respectively) are vital indicators of the adaptability of plants to environmental conditions. However, the effects of grazing and climate change on the spatiotemporal changes in CUE and WUE in Qinghai–Tibet Plateau grasslands (QTPG) are still unclear. Results Using the enhanced Biome-BGCMuSo model in combination with observed data, we estimated and analyzed the spatiotemporal variations in CUE and WUE and their responses to grazing in QTPG from 1979 to 2018. The mean annual CUE was 0.7066 in QTPG from 1979 to 2018 under the actual climate scenario. In general, the grassland CUE was low in the southeast and high in the northwest. Grazing generally decreased CUE in QTPG from 1979 to 2018, and there was an increasing trend in the difference in CUE between the grazing and nongrazing scenarios. The difference in CUE was generally greater in the northwest than in the southeast. The mean annual WUE was 0.5591 g C/kg H2O in QTPG from 1979 to 2018 under the actual climate scenario. After 2000, the grassland WUE exhibited a fluctuating upward trend. In general, the grassland WUE was greater in the southeast than in the northwest. Grazing generally decreased WUE in QTPG from 1979 to 2018, and there was an increasing trend in the difference in WUE between the grazing and nongrazing scenarios. The difference in WUE was generally greater in the northwest than in the southeast. Conclusions The findings of this study suggested that the spatiotemporal changes in CUE and WUE in QTPG were closely related to changes in the natural environment and grazing management.

Study region: Ili River, the main river in the Lake Balkhash basin. Study focus: This study introduces a novel hybrid model by coupling the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model with machine learning algorithms. It aims to simulate and forecast the streamflow of the Ili River, clearly delineating the roles of meteorological factors and anthropogenic factors in the process of streamflow change. New hydrological insights for the region: During the period 1960–2020, the contribution of climate change to streamflow variation was 104.59%-113.07%, the contribution of land use ranged from −10.75% to −4.59%, and the impact of reservoir construction was −2.27%. The predictive outcomes of the hybrid model indicate that, under the SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5 scenarios, the streamflow of the Ili River is projected to increase by 12.8% and 14.3% respectively in the future period (2021–2100), in comparison to the historical period (1960–2020). The warming and humidification from 2021 to 2100 will lead to changes in the streamflow components of the Ili River, with a decrease in the proportion of groundwater flow and an increase in the proportion of surface flow. The results of this study provide a reference for the rational utilization and scientific management of water resources in the Ili River Basin.

Study Region: Upper Amu Darya (UAD). Study Focus: The UAD has abundant hydropower potential (HP). This study focuses on the potential sites of small hydropower stations (sHPs) and explores the impact of future climate change on discharge and HP. New Hydrological Insights for the Region: The conflict between water resources and hydropower in Central Asia is a key issue affecting regional development. Developing sHPs provides a new direction for alleviating energy shortages in Central Asia. Combining the hydrological model with the geographic information decision-making method, we have determined the potential sites for ten sHPs in the UAD and calculated the HP for each station. Based on future climate data from two shared socioeconomic pathways and four global climate models, we found that future precipitation and temperature are projected to increase, with precipitation increasing mainly in spring and winter. The average discharge will increase by 19.1∼36.6% in the near-term (2031–2050) and by 29.7∼106.8% in the long-term (2071–2090). In addition, climate change has significantly increased HP in winter, and the increase of HP in relatively high altitudes is higher than that in low altitudes. This implies that the HP development prospect of UAD is broad in future, but for sHPs construction schemes, it is necessary to further consider the impact on both environment and society.

Abstract Simulating the carbon-water fluxes at more widely distributed meteorological stations based on the sparsely and unevenly distributed eddy covariance flux stations is needed to accurately understand the carbon-water cycle of terrestrial ecosystems. We established a new framework consisting of machine learning, determination coefficient (R2), Euclidean distance, and remote sensing (RS), to simulate the daily net ecosystem carbon dioxide exchange (NEE) and water flux (WF) of the Eurasian meteorological stations using a random forest model or/and RS. The daily NEE and WF datasets with RS-based information (NEE-RS and WF-RS) for 3774 and 4427 meteorological stations during 2002–2020 were produced, respectively. And the daily NEE and WF datasets without RS-based information (NEE-WRS and WF-WRS) for 4667 and 6763 meteorological stations during 1983–2018 were generated, respectively. For each meteorological station, the carbon-water fluxes meet accuracy requirements and have quasi-observational properties. These four carbon-water flux datasets have great potential to improve the assessments of the ecosystem carbon-water dynamics.

Abstract The eddy covariance (EC) flux stations have great limitations in the evaluation of the global net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEE) and in the uncertainty reduction due to their sparse and uneven distribution and spatial representation. If the EC stations are linked with widely distributed meteorological stations using machine learning (ML) and remote sensing, it will play a big role in effectively improving the accuracy of the global NEE assessment and reducing uncertainty. In this study, we developed a framework for estimating NEE at meteorological stations. We first optimized the hyperparameters and input variables of the ML model based on the optimization method called an adaptive genetic algorithm. Then, we developed 566 random forest (RF)‐based NEE estimation models by the strategy of spatial leave‐out‐one cross‐validation. We innovatively established the Euclidean distance‐based accuracy projection algorithm of the R square (R2), which could test the accuracy of each model to estimate the NEE of the specific flux at the weather station. Only the model with the highest R2 was selected from the models with a prediction accuracy of R2 > 0.5 for the specific meteorological stations to estimate its NEE. 4674 out of 10,289 weather stations around the world might match at least one of the 566 NEE estimation models with a projected accuracy of R2 > 0.5. The NEE estimation models we screened for the meteorological stations showed a reliable performance and a higher accuracy than the former studies. The NEE values of the most (96.9%) screened meteorological stations around the world are negative (carbon sink) and most (65.3%) of those showed an increasing trend in the mean annual NEE (carbon sink). The NEE dataset produced at the meteorological stations could be used as a supplement to the EC observations and quasi‐observation data to assess the NEE products of the global grid. The NEE dataset is publicly available via the figshare with https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.20485563.v1.

The dust originating from the extinct lake of the Aral Sea poses a considerable threat to the surrounding communities and ecosystems. The accurate location of these wind erosion areas is an essential prerequisite for controlling sand and dust activity. However, few relevant indicators reported in this current study can accurately describe and measure wind erosion intensity. A novel wind erosion intensity (WEI) of a pixel resolution unit was defined in this paper based on deformation due to the wind erosion in this pixel resolution unit. We also derived the relationship between WEI and soil InSAR temporal decorrelation (ITD). ITD is usually caused by the surface change over time, which is very suitable for describing wind erosion. However, within a pixel resolution unit, the ITD signal usually includes soil and vegetation contributions, and extant studies concerning this issue are considerably limited. Therefore, we proposed an ITD decomposition model (ITDDM) to decompose the ITD signal of a pixel resolution unit. The least-square method (LSM) based on singular value decomposition (SVD) is used to estimate the ITD of soil (SITD) within a pixel resolution unit. We verified the results qualitatively by the landscape photos, which can reflect the actual conditions of the soil. At last, the WEI of the Aral Sea from 23 June 2020, to 5 July 2020 was mapped. The results confirmed that (1) based on the ITDDM model, the SITD can be accurately estimated by the LSM; (2) the Aral Sea is experiencing severe wind erosion; and (3) the middle, northeast, and southeast bare areas of the South Aral Sea are where salt dust storms may occur.

ABSTRACTThe Mountain-Oasis-Desert System (MODS) is the fundamental landscape component within the vast arid region of Central Asia. Human activities and natural processes cause surface displacement in the MODS, resulting in geoenvironmental issues and hazards. However, surface displacement and its driving mechanisms in the MODS are not understood. In this study, we used the time-series interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) method to detect deformation in the MODS in north Tianshan Mountain, Xinjiang and investigated its attribution from the geological conditions, groundwater level changes, and climate variability. The results along the vertical gradient indicate that decorrelation is severe in the high mountain areas with ice-marginal environments (over 3600 m above sea level (a.s.l.)) and the forest-covered mid-mountainous belt (1700–2800 m asl), rendering effective detection unfeasible. Dynamic characteristics are identified in subalpine areas with an elevation of 2800–3600 m asl, with maximum horizontal and vertical displacements of −80.2 mm/year and −58.6 mm/year, respectively. The seasonal acceleration is influenced by the combined effects of temperature and precipitation changes. We observed dense subsidence funnels and ground fissures associated with coal mining in the foreland hills (700–1700 m asl). Ground displacements here exceeded −50 mm/year two years after mining activities had ceased. Subsidence has expanded in the oases with elevations of less than 700 m asl, due to extensive groundwater extraction for agricultural irrigation. The correlation coefficient between groundwater level and displacement was 0.89 and 0.45 at wells in the agricultural and desert areas, respectively. The deformation exhibited seasonal variations associated with groundwater level. The deformation remains relatively stable in the surrounding oasis-affected desert areas, with weak fluctuations influenced by seasonal variations in groundwater level.

The dynamics of Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) is key to understand the global carbon cycle. Multiple GPP products are currently available based on remote sensing, Light Use Efficiency model (LUE) or diagnostic biophysical model. However, little knowledge is available on the spatial patterns of the uncertainty of different GPP products and their potential drivers over the Central Asia (CA), a fragile environment for accurate GPP estimation. This study investigates the sensitivity of the 8-day, monthly and yearly GPP uncertainties based on the three-cornered hat (TCH) method and Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) model in terms of vegetation, energy, water, climate and terrain factors in the dryland ecosystem during the 2003–2015 period. Ten GPP products were examined, including one product (FLUXCOM) from machine learning (ML), six products (EC-LUE, FluxSat, LUEopt, MODIS, MuSyQ and VPM) based on the (LUE), two products (GOSIF and NIRv) from satellite-based direct proxies (Proxies) and one product (PML) from the diagnostic biophysical model. The results indicate that the spatial distribution of the ten GPP products in CA showed similar patterns at different time scales, but with values varied at different products and time scales. According to the eddy covariance (EC) observations and the TCH-based uncertainties, the FLUXCOM product showed smaller relative uncertainties than other products. The attribution analysis denotes that the sources of uncertainty of the GPP varied for each product, and thus the improvement strategies for different products should be implemented separately The FLUXCOM should adapt the vegetation- related module to the dryland environment of CA. The LUE model should optimize the LUE parameters for the dryland ecosystem and incorporate the water related variables in the model. The Proxies model should incorporate the water and energy variables (such as soil moisture and radiation) as input data to improve their performance in CA. The diagnostic model should consider the elevation variable as input data, which may improve the performance of the PML in CA. Our results do not only provide an important basis for the selection of GPP products in the study of the carbon cycle in CA, but also offer a new insight into the GPP model development and improvement for the dryland ecosystem.

This paper shows that desertification combating practices decline incomes of farmers and herders, and China needs to adapt its ecological programmes to address the impacts of climate change and create positive synergies to combat desertification.

Net primary productivity (NPP) has been substantially changed under the intense oasification in the urban agglomerations on the northern slopes of mid-Tianshan Mountain (UANSTM) and climate change. However, the temporal variations of NPP under the oasification remain unclear, and the relative contribution of oasification and climate change on annual NPP variation is still under debate. By using remote sensing data, reanalysis data, modified Carnegie–Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) model, and a machine learning method, we explored the spatial–temporal variation of NPP in the UANSTM region and quantified the contribution of oasification and climate change to NPP variation from 2001 to 2020. Our study indicated that: (1) the NPP presents an overall increasing trend in the most of region and the region presented decreasing trend mainly due to the cropland conversion to the urban area; (2) the oasification-dominated NPP area concentrated in the built-up land and cropland; (3) during 2001–2020, the NPP increased by about 5.4 Tg·C, and the contribution of climatic and oasification to NPP increase were quantified (73.1% and 26.9%, respectively); (4) water-related factors was the main driver of NPP variation in the UANSTM region.

There has been an increasing number of studies on the potential effects of land-use change on the carbon (C) balance. However, few of these studies have focused on arid regions. Cropland in Xinjiang, a typical arid region in China, has expanded dramatically over the last 40 years. This study applied the Carbon Bookkeeping Model to estimate the changes in C stocks resulting from cropland expansion in Xinjiang from 1975 to 2015. The results showed that the area of cropland increased by a factor of ∼1.6. This increase was driven by advancements in agricultural technology and favorable agricultural policies. The increase in cropland area of 2.03 Mha (M = 106) was the result of the clearing of ∼4.09 Mha land for cropland and the conversion of 2.06 Mha cropland to other land cover types. The expansion in cropland resulted in substantial sequestration of C, with that in Xinjiang amounting to 94.24 Tg C (1Tg = 1012g), accounting for 1.4% of the regional C stocks. Land clearing for cropland (LCC) had the greatest contribution to C sequestration in Xinjiang. The rate of increase in C density through LCC was 0.61 Mg C ha−1a−1 and 1.54 Mg C ha−1a−1 from 1975 to 2004 and 2005 to 2015, respectively. C sequestration due to cropland loss (CLO) of 29.40 Tg C was attributed to the expansion of built-up land and afforestation. Sustainable agricultural activities represented by large-scale clearing for cropland were a major C sink in Xinjiang. Therefore, sustainable management of cropland is essential for maintaining a high C density and preventing loss of C to the atmosphere through cropland abandonment in the future.

Accurate monitoring of aboveground biomass (AGB) and its spatial distribution is essential for sustainable management and development. The most frequently used method for estimating AGB with remotely sensed data is based on the relationship between AGB measured data and vegetation indices. In the past, there were some shortcomings in analyzing the spatial heterogeneity and solving scale difference. Therefore, this paper realized the space-air-ground integrated based on Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI), Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) and measured data. The results indicated that the RFR models have excellent adaptability to invert AGB of three different coverage regions in study area, with R2 of 0.69 and root mean square error (RMSE) of 116.22 kg·hm−2 for low-coverage region, R2 of 0.65 and RMSE of 164.16 kg·hm−2 for medium-coverage region, R2 of 0.73 and RMSE of 149.99 kg·hm−2 for high-coverage region. We found that the main driving vegetation indices was different in each region during the process of model building and it was related to the characteristics of vegetation indices. Moreover, regions with different coverage have different responses to topography. The findings showed that the spatial distribution and driving mechanism of AGB in the study area could be more clearly analyzed based on the coverage division. The introduction of coverage division reasonably enhanced the accuracy of RFR modeling AGB. This study confirmed that using the Sentinel-2 MSI, UAV images, measured data and the RFR model to realize the space-air-ground integrated is an applicable method for monitoring and assessment of AGB in Qilian Mountains, which can offer scientific basis and theoretical support to rational development of land resources and maintaining the balance of ecosystem.

Fragmented ecosystems of the desiccated Aral Sea seek answers to the profound local hydrologically- and water-related problems. Particularly, in the Small Aral Sea Basin (SASB), these problems are associated with low precipitation, increased temperature, land use and evapotranspiration (ET) changes. Here, the utility of high-resolution satellite dataset is employed to model the growing season dynamic of near-surface fluxes controlled by the advective effects of desert and oasis ecosystems in the SASB. This study adapted and applied the sensible heat flux calibration mechanism of Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL) to 16 clear-sky Landsat 7 ETM+ dataset, following a guided automatic pixels search from surface temperature Ts and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index NDVI ($${T_{{s_{hot/NDVI}}}},{T_{{s_{cold/NDVI}}}}$$). Results were comprehensively validated with flux components and actual ET (ETa) outputs of Eddy Covariance (EC) and Meteorological Station (KZL) observations located in the desert and oasis, respectively. Compared with the original SEBAL, a noteworthy enhancement of flux estimations was achieved as follows: – desert ecosystem ETa $$ \to $$ R2 = 0.94; oasis ecosystem ETa $$ \to $$ R2 = 0.98 (P

Quantifying the variation of biophysical parameters and their driving mechanisms is essential for monitoring land surface environmental changes and for understanding the land–atmosphere interaction in the arid region. Due to the complexity of human activities, most researches are limited to climate change, whereas the response analysis of human activities to changes in biophysical parameters are still lacking or not comprehensively considered. Therefore, large biases and uncertainties still exist in the estimates of regional responses to global change. Firstly, we specifically quantified the main human activities related to land use/land cover change (LULCC) in the northern Tianshan Mountains (NTM), and identified the spatiotemporal changes of primary biophysical parameters, including Albedo, leaf area index (LAI), land surface temperature (LST), and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Then, we tested the performance of the five models used, including multiple linear regression (MLR), random forest (RF), support vector regression (SVR), multi-layer perceptron (MLP), and K-nearest neighbor (KNN). RF outperformed others and was used to quantify and disaggregate the contribution of climate change and human activities to land surface parameters in the NTM. We found a strong spatial heterogeneity in the spatial variation of all biophysical parameters. Except for LST, the annual maximum Albedo, LAI, and NDVI showed a significant increasing trend in the NTM from 2000 to 2019 (p

Lake ice phenology is an indicator of past and present climate, it is sensitive to regional and global climate change. In the past few decades, the climate of Central Asia has changed significantly due to global warming and anthropogenic activities. However, there are few studies on the lake ice phenology in Central Asia. In this study, the lake ice phenology of 53 lakes in Central Asia were extracted using MODIS daily LST products from 2002 to 2020. The results show that MODIS-extracted lake ice phenology is generally consistent with Landsat-extracted and AVHRR-extracted lake ice phenology. Generally, lakes in Central Asia start to freeze from October to December. The trends in the lake ice phenology show strong regional differences. Lakes distributed along the Kunlun Mountains show overall delayed trends in all lake ice phenology variables, while lakes located in southwestern Central Asia show clear advancing trends in the freeze-up start dates (7.06 days) and breakup end dates (6.81 days). Correlations between the phenology of lake ice and local and climatic factors suggest that the ice breakup process and the duration of its complete coverage depend more on heat, while precipitation mainly affects the freezing time of the ice. Wind speed mainly affects the time of completely frozen of ice. In general, the breakup process is more susceptible to climatic factors, while local factors have strong influences on the freeze-up process.

Inland river runoff variations in arid regions play a decisive role in maintaining regional ecological stability. Observation data of inland river runoff in arid regions have short time series and imperfect attributes due to limitations in the terrain environment and other factors. These shortages not only restrict the accurate simulation of inland river runoff in arid regions significantly, but also influence scientific evaluation and management of the water resources of a basin in arid regions. In recent years, research and applications of machine learning and in-depth learning technologies in the hydrological field have been developing gradually around the world. However, the simulation accuracy is low, and it often has over-fitting phenomenon in previous studies due to influences of complicated characteristics such as “unsteady runoff”. Fortunately, the circulation layer of Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) can explore time series information of runoffs deeply to avoid long-term dependence problems. In this study, the LSTM algorithm was introduced and improved based on the in-depth learning theory of artificial intelligence and relevant meteorological factors that were monitored by coupling runoffs. The runoff data of the Yarkant River was chosen for training and test of the LSTM model. The results demonstrated that Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Square error (RMSE) of the LSTM model were 3.633 and 7.337, respectively. This indicates that the prediction effect and accuracy of the LSTM model were significantly better than those of the convolution neural network (CNN), Decision Tree Regressor (DTR) and Random Forest (RF). Comparison of accuracy of different models made the research reliable. Hence, time series data was converted into a problem of supervised learning through LSTM in the present study. The improved LSTM model solved prediction difficulties in runoff data to some extent and it applied to hydrological simulation in arid regions under several climate scenarios. It not only decreased runoff prediction uncertainty brought by heterogeneity of climate models and increased inland river runoff prediction accuracy in arid regions, but also provided references to basin water resource management in arid regions. In particular, the LSTM model provides an effective solution to runoff simulation in regions with limited data.

Anthropogenic activities and climate change affect the type, structure and function of ecosystems, resulting in important changes in vegetation net primary productivity (NPP). Therefore, in this study we used the vegetation photosynthesis model (VPM) to reveal the spatiotemporal variations in NPP in Xinjiang from 2000 to 2019. The impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on NPP changes were quantified and separated by the residual analysis-control variables (RES-CON) method. The results showed that the average NPP in Xinjiang increased by 17.77% from 2000 to 2019. Anthropogenic activities and climate change generally had a positive impact on NPP from 2000 to 2019. The most important anthropogenic activity was land use and land cover (LULC) transformation from grass to arable land, which significantly increased vegetation productivity. Regarding climate change, precipitation has played a significant role in promoting the productivity of vegetation. Overall, the average contribution of climate change (temperature and precipitation) to NPP variation (21.44%) is much greater than the contribution of anthropogenic activities (3.46%), but in areas where anthropogenic activities occur, the average contribution of anthropogenic activities to NPP variation (75.01%) is much greater than the average contribution of climate change (15.53%). Where there are no anthropogenic activities, the average contribution of climate change to NPP variation is 21.72%. In summary, anthropogenic activities are the main driver of NPP variation in areas where anthropogenic activities occur, while the total area in Xinjiang where climate change is the most important driver is larger than the total area where anthropogenic activities are the dominant driver.

The human appropriation of net primary production (HANPP) was developed to estimate the intensity of human activities in natural ecosystems, which is still unclear in the Xinjiang grasslands. Using the Biome-Biogeochemical Cycle (Biome-BGC) grazing model in combination with field data, we assessed the HANPP and explored its spatiotemporal patterns in the Xinjiang grasslands. Our results showed that (1) the HANPP increased from 38 g C/m2/yr in 1979 to 88 g C/m2/yr in 2012, with an average annual increase of 1.47%. The HANPP was 80 g C/m2/yr, which represented 51% of the potential net primary production (NPPpot), and the HANPP efficiency was 70% in this region. (2) The areas with high HANPP values mainly occurred in northern Xinjiang and northwest of the Tianshan Mountains, while areas with low HANPP values mainly occurred in southern Xinjiang and southwest of the Tianshan Mountains. (3) Interannual variations in HANPP and NPPpot were significantly positively correlated (P

Shortfalls in regular evapotranspiration (ET) monitoring and evaluation pose a huge challenge to agricultural water resource distribution in arid Central Asia (CA). In this study, a first detailed regional assessment of GLEAM, ERA5, MERRA2, CLSM and NOAH ET products in CA was performed by systematically implementing the triple collocation (TC) method, in which about 36,936 grid cells for each ET data (within a six-triplet design) were collocated, at 0.25° and with monthly resolutions during 2003–2020. The reliability of the strategy adopted was confirmed in four arid biomes using standard evaluation metrics (R, RMSE and BIAS), and by spatiotemporal cross-validation of the six ET triplets across CA. Results show that the systematic TC method produced more robust ET product assessment metrics with reduced RMSEs compared to the initial ET product validation using in-situ, which showed weak-positive correlation and high negative bias-range (i.e., −21.02 ≤ BIAS < 16 mm) in the four arid biomes of CA. The spatial cross-validation by TC showed that the magnitude of ET random errors significantly varies, and confirms the systematic biases with site-scale measurements. The highest ET uncertainties by CLSM (27.43%), NOAH (29.16%), MERRA2 (38.28%), ERA5 (36.75), and GLEAM (41%) were more evident in the shrubland, cropland, grassland, cropland again, and desert biomes, respectively. Moreover, error magnitudes in high altitudes (Tianshan Mountain range) are generally lower than in plain-desert areas. All ET products spatially captured ET dynamics over CA, but none simultaneously outperformed the other. These findings are invaluable in the utilization of the assessed ET products in supporting regional water resource management, particularly in CA.

Understanding the impacts of environmental factors on spatial–temporal and large-scale rodent distribution is important for rodent damage prevention. Investigating rat hole density (RHD) is one of the most effective methods to obtain the intensity of rodent damage. However, most of the previous field surveys or UAV-based remote sensing methods can only evaluate small-scale RHD and its influencing factors. However, these studies did not consider large-scale temporal and spatial heterogeneity. Therefore, we collected small-scale and in situ measurement records of RHD on the northern slope of the Tien Shan Mountains in Xinjiang (NTXJ), China, from 1982 to 2015, and then used correlation analysis and Bayesian network (BN) to analyze the environmental impacts on large-scale RHD with satellite remote sensing data such as the GIMMS NDVI product. The results show that the built BN can better quantify causality in the environmental mechanism modeling of RHD. The NDVI and LAI data from satellite remote sensing are important to the spatial–temporal RHD distribution and the mapping in the future. In regions with an elevation higher than 600 m (UPR) and lower than 600 m (LWR) of NTXJ, there are significant differences in the driving mechanism patterns of RHD, which are dependent on the elevation variation. In LWR, vegetation conditions have a weaker impact on RHD than UPR. It is possibly due to the Artemisia eaten by the dominant species Lagurus luteus (LL) in UPR being more sensitive to precipitation and temperature if compared with the Haloxylon ammodendron eaten by the Rhombomys opimus (RO) in LWR. In LWR, grazing intensity is more strongly and positively correlated to RHD than UPR, possibly due to both winter grazing and RO dependency on vegetation distribution; moreover, in UPR, sheep do not feed Artemisia as the main food, and the total vegetation is sufficient for sheep and LL to coexist. Under the different conditions of water availability of LWR and UPR, grazing may affect the ratio of aboveground and underground biomass by photosynthate allocation, thereby affecting the distribution of RHD. In extremely dry years, the RHD of LWR and UPR may have an indirect interactive relation due to changes in grazing systems.

The fine particles produced during the desertification process provide a rich material source for sand and dust activities. Accurately locating the desertified areas is a prerequisite for human intervention in sand and dust activities. In arid and semi-arid regions, due to very sparse vegetation coverage, the microwave surface scattering model is very suitable for describing the variation of topsoil property during the process of desertification. However, the microwave backscattering coefficient (MBC) trend of the soil during the desertification process is still unclear now. Moreover, the MBC of a resolution unit usually involves the contribution of soil and vegetation. These problems seriously limit the application of microwave remote sensing technology in desertification identification. In this paper, we studied the soil MBC change trend during the desertification process and proposed a microwave backscattering contribution decomposition (MBCD) model to estimate the soil MBC of a resolution unit. Furthermore, a simple microwave backscattering threshold (SMSBT) model was established to describe the severity of desertification. The MBCD and SMSBT models were verified qualitatively through landscape photos of sampling points from a field survey in November 2018. The results showed that the MBC would gradually decline with the deepening degree of desertification. The MBCD model and the corresponding least squares method can be used to estimate the soil MBC accurately, and the SMSBT model can accurately distinguish different degrees of desertification. The results of desertification classification showed that more than 68% of the dry bottom of the Aral Sea is suffering from different degrees of desertification.

The dynamics of Pinus mugo krummholz during concomitant change in pastoral land use and climate in central Italy since the mid-20th century was investigated. Krummholz dynamics were detected using sequential aerial photography and fitted to a logistic regression model with elevation, grazing, proximity to beech forest, and proximity to krummholz as explanatory variables. Dendrochronological series were correlated with temperature and precipitation and fitted to a linear model. During this period krummholz doubled in extent and migrated 35–65 m upslope. Expansion was positively associated with krummholz proximity, residual pastoral grazing, and proximity to beech forest beyond 10 m and negatively associated with elevation and beech forest closer than 10 m. The logistic regression model forecasts krummholz migration by an additional 30 m upslope by 2060. During the 20th century, winter and spring minimum temperatures increased but did not result in increased radial stem growth of P. mugo. The combined evidence suggests that krummholz dynamics can be explained by the legacy of summer pastoralism and the dispersal limitations of P. mugo, rather than by climate change.

The accelerated global warming and heterogeneous change in precipitation have been resulting in climate system shifts, which plays a key role in the stability of ecosystem and social economic development. Central Asia is account 80% of the temperate desert, characterized by fragile ecosystem; however, it has experienced the fastest warming in recent decades and projected warming in future. The Köppen-Geiger climate classification is a useful tool to assess the potential impacts of climate change on regional ecosystem. The spatial shift and temporal evolution of each climatic zone based on Köppen-Geiger climate classification are analyzed in historical and future period under different scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), high risk regions that might experience more frequent climatic zone shifts are delimited in this study, which could provide the useful information for developing mitigate strategies in coping with the warming threat. The hotter and dryer subtypes of arid climatic zone and warmer subtypes of temperate climatic zone expanded their coverage in Central Asia, corresponding to the tundra climatic, cooler subtype of arid and temperate climatic zone contracted. Based on a method defining the climate-sensitivity, high risk regions are mainly distributed in northern Kazakhstan and Tianshan Mountains region.

The rapid oasis expansion and urbanization that occurred in Xinjiang province (China) in the last decades have greatly modified the land surface energy balance and influenced the local circulation under the arid mountains-plain background system. In this study, we first evaluated the ALARO regional climate model coupled to the land surface scheme SURFEX at 4 km resolution using 53 national climatological stations and 5 automatic weather stations. We found that the model correctly simulates daily and hourly variation of 2 m temperature and relative humidity. A 4-day clear sky period has been chosen to study both local atmospheric circulations and their mutual interaction. Observations and simulations both show that a low-level divergence over oasis appears between 19:00 and 21:00 Beijing Time when the background mountain-plain wind system is weak. The model simulates a synergistic interaction between the oasis-desert breeze and urban-rural breeze from 16:00 until 22:00 with a maximum effect at 20:00 when the downdraft over oasis (updraft over urban) areas increases by 0.8 (0.4) Pa/s. The results show that the oasis expansion decreases the nocturnal urban heat island in the city of Urumqi by 0.8 °C, while the impact of urban expansion on the oasis cold island is negligible.

Agricultural oasis expansion and intensive management practices have occurred in arid and semiarid regions of China during the last few decades. Accordingly, regional carbon and water budgets have been profoundly impacted by agroecosystems in these regions. Therefore, study on the methods used to accurately estimate energy, water, and carbon exchanges is becoming increasingly important. Process-based models can represent the complex processes between land and atmosphere among agricultural ecosystems. However, before the models can be applied they must be validated under different environmental and climatic conditions. In this study, a process-based agricultural ecosystem model (Agro-IBIS) was validated for maize crops using 3 years of soil and biometric measurements at Wulanwusu agrometeorological site (WAS) located in the Shihezi oasis in Xinjiang, northwest China. The model satisfactorily represented leaf area index (LAI) during the growing season, simulating its peak values within the magnitude of 0–10%. The total biomass carbon was overestimated by 15%, 8%, and 16% in 2004, 2005, and 2006, respectively. The model satisfactorily simulated the soil temperature (0–10 cm) and volumetric water content (VWC) (0–25 cm) of farmland during the growing season. However, it overestimated soil temperature approximately by 4 °C and VWC by 15–30% during the winter, coinciding with the period of no vegetation cover in Xinjiang. Overall, the results indicate that the model could represent crop growth, and seems to be applicable in multiple sites in arid oases agroecosystems of Xinjiang. Future application of the model will impose more comprehensive validation using eddy covariance flux data, and consider including dynamics of crop residue and improving characterization of the final stage of leaf development.

Because of the use of outdated terrestrial datasets, regional climate models (RCMs) have a limited ability to accurately simulate weather and climate conditions over heterogeneous oasis-desert systems, especially near large mountains. Using actual terrestrial datasets from satellite products for RCMs is the only possible solution to the limitation; however, it is impractical for long-period simulations due to the limited satellite products available before 2000 and the extremely time- and labor-consuming processes involved. In this study, we used the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with observed estimates of land use (LU), albedo, Leaf Area Index (LAI), and green Vegetation Fraction (VF) datasets from satellite products to examine which terrestrial datasets have a great impact on simulating water and heat conditions over heterogeneous oasis-desert systems in the northern Tianshan Mountains. Five simulations were conducted for 1–31 July in both 2010 and 2012. The decrease in the root mean squared error and increase in the coefficient of determination for the 2 m temperature (T2), humidity (RH), latent heat flux (LE), and wind speed (WS) suggest that these datasets improve the performance of WRF in both years; in particular, oasis effects are more realistically simulated. Using actual satellite-derived fractional vegetation coverage data has a much greater effect on the simulation of T2, RH, and LE than the other parameters, resulting in mean error correction values of 62%, 87%, and 92%, respectively. LU data is the primary parameter because it strongly influences other secondary land surface parameters, such as LAI and albedo. We conclude that actual LU and VF data should be used in the WRF for both weather and climate simulations.

The oases in the mountain-basin systems of Central Asia are extremely fragile. Investigating oasis effects and oasis-desert interactions is important for understanding the ecological stability of oases. However, previous studies have been performed only in oasis-desert environments and have not considered the impacts of mountains. In this study, oasis effects were explored in the context of mountain effects in the northern Tianshan Mountains (NTM) using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Four numerical simulations are performed. The def simulation uses the default terrestrial datasets provided by the WRF model. The mod simulation uses actual terrestrial datasets from satellite products. The non-oasis simulation is a scenario simulation in which oasis areas are replaced by desert conditions, while all other conditions are the same as the mod simulation. Finally, the non-mountain simulation is a scenario simulation in which the elevation values of all grids are set to a constant value of 300 m, while all other conditions are the same as in the mod simulation. The mod simulation agrees well with near-surface measurements of temperature, relative humidity and latent heat flux. The Tianshan Mountains exert a cooling and wetting effects in the NTM region. The oasis breeze circulation (OBC) between oases and the deserts is counteracted by the stronger background circulation. Thus, the self-supporting mechanism of oases originating from the OBC plays a limited role in maintaining the ecological stability of oases in this mountain-basin system. However, the mountain wind causes the “cold-wet’’ island effects of the oases to extend into the oasis-desert transition zone at night, which is beneficial for plants in the transition region.

Identifying the effects of grazing is critical for the conservation, protection and sustainable use of arid grassland ecosystems. However, research regarding the ecological effects of grazing along mountainous elevation gradients is limited in arid areas, particularly at the regional scale. Using the Biome-BGC grazing model, we explored the effects of grazing on grassland net primary productivity (NPP), evapotranspiration (ET) and water use efficiency (WUE) from 1979 to 2012 along an elevation gradient in the northern Tianshan Mountains. The NPP, ET and WUE values were generally lower under the grazing scenario than under the ungrazed scenario; the differences between the grazing and ungrazed scenarios showed increasing trends over time; and distinct spatial heterogeneity in these differences was observed. Distinct decreases in NPP and WUE under the grazing scenario mainly occurred in regions with high livestock consumption. The decrease in ET was greater in mountainous areas with high grazing intensity due to decreased transpiration and increased surface runoff. This study contributes to a better understanding of the ecological effects of grazing along an elevation gradient in the northern Tianshan Mountains and provides data to support the scientific management of grassland ecosystems.

Arid grassland ecosystems are widely distributed across Central Asia. However, there is a lack of research and observations of the land–atmosphere exchange of water and heat in the arid grasslands in this region, particularly over complex surfaces. In this study, systematic observations were conducted from 2013 to 2015 using an HL20 Bowen ratio and TDR300 and WatchDog1400 systems to determine the characteristics of these processes during the growing season (April–October) of the arid mountainous grasslands of this region. (1) The latent heat flux (Le) was lower than the sensible heat flux (He) overall, and a small transient decrease in Le was observed before its daytime maximum; daily comparative variations in both fluxes were closely related to vegetation growth. (2) Evapotranspiration (ET) showed substantial variation across different years, seasons and months, and monthly variations in ET were closely related to vegetation growth. Water condensation (Q) was low and relatively stable. Relatively high levels of soil water were measured in spring followed by a decreasing trend. The land–atmosphere exchange of water and heat during the growing season in this region was closely associated with phenology, available precipitation and terrain. This study provides data support for the scientific management of arid mountainous grasslands.

In this work, rain totals from 1960–2014, obtained during the warm season (May to October) from 52 meteorological stations, over Xinjiang, China were classified as either light, moderate, or heavy rain in two sub-regions (northern and southern). Spatial and temporal trends for rain amounts and days for the three rain classes were determined. All light, moderate, and heavy rain amounts displayed increasing trends over the two sub-regions. Furthermore, heavy rain amounts contributed the most to changes in total rain amounts. Light rain days in northern Xinjiang significantly decreased, in contrast to increasing light rain days in southern Xinjiang and moderate and heavy rain days within two sub-regions. Results obtained from correlation and relative weights analyses implied that lower-tropospheric specific humidity was the main factor responsible for light rain day trends in Xinjiang. Increasing temperatures were not found to have a significant effect.