1. Dynamic SARS-CoV-2 surveillance model combining seroprevalence and wastewater concentrations for post-vaccine disease burden estimates
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Rochelle H. Holm, Grzegorz A. Rempala, Boseung Choi, J. Michael Brick, Alok R. Amraotkar, Rachel J. Keith, Eric C. Rouchka, Julia H. Chariker, Kenneth E. Palmer, Ted Smith, and Aruni Bhatnagar
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Medicine - Abstract
Abstract Background Despite wide scale assessments, it remains unclear how large-scale severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccination affected the wastewater concentration of the virus or the overall disease burden as measured by hospitalization rates. Methods We used weekly SARS-CoV-2 wastewater concentration with a stratified random sampling of seroprevalence, and linked vaccination and hospitalization data, from April 2021–August 2021 in Jefferson County, Kentucky (USA). Our susceptible ( $$S$$ S ), vaccinated ( $$V$$ V ), variant-specific infected ( $${I}_{1}$$ I 1 and $${I}_{2}$$ I 2 ), recovered ( $$R$$ R ), and seropositive ( $$T$$ T ) model ( $${SV}{I}_{2}{RT}$$ S V I 2 R T ) tracked prevalence longitudinally. This was related to wastewater concentration. Results Here we show the 64% county vaccination rate translate into about a 61% decrease in SARS-CoV-2 incidence. The estimated effect of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant emergence is a 24-fold increase of infection counts, which correspond to an over 9-fold increase in wastewater concentration. Hospitalization burden and wastewater concentration have the strongest correlation (r = 0.95) at 1 week lag. Conclusions Our study underscores the importance of continuing environmental surveillance post-vaccine and provides a proof-of-concept for environmental epidemiology monitoring of infectious disease for future pandemic preparedness.
- Published
- 2024
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