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Abstract Background In farm animals, mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) effect on economic performance remains hot-topic for breeding and genetic selection. Here, 53 maternal lineages of Small-tailed Han sheep were used to investigate the association of mitochondrial DNA variations and the lambing litter size. Results Sequence sweeping of the mitochondrial coding regions discovered 31 non-synonymous mutations, and the association study revealed that T7719G in mtDNA tRNA-Lys gene was associated with litter size (P 0.05). In addition, the nuclear major gene BMPR1B was significantly correlated with litter size in the flock (P 0.05). Conclusions Our results highlight mutations of ovine mitochondrial coding genes, suggesting T7719G in tRNA-Lys gene be a potentially useful marker for selection of sheep litter size.

Environmental DNA (eDNA) metabarcoding is transforming biodiversity monitoring in aquatic environments. Such an approach has been developed and deployed for monitoring lake fish communities in Great Britain, where the method has repeatedly shown a comparable or better performance than conventional approaches. Previous analyses indicated that 20 water samples per lake are sufficient to reliably estimate fish species richness, but it is unclear how reduced eDNA sampling effort affects richness, or other biodiversity estimates and metrics. As the number of samples strongly influences the cost of monitoring programmes, it is essential that sampling effort is optimised for a specific monitoring objective. The aim of this project was to explore the effect of reduced eDNA sampling effort on biodiversity metrics (namely species richness and community composition) using algorithmic and statistical resampling techniques of a data set from 101 lakes, covering a wide spectrum of lake types and ecological quality. The results showed that reliable estimation of lake fish species richness could, in fact, usually be achieved with a much lower number of samples. For example, in almost 90% of lakes, 95% of complete fish richness could be detected with only 10 water samples, regardless of lake area. Similarly, other measures of alpha and beta-diversity were not greatly affected by a reduction in sample size from 20 to 10 samples. We also found that there is no significant difference in detected species richness between shoreline and offshore sampling transects, allowing for simplified field logistics. This could potentially allow the effective sampling of a larger number of lakes within a given monitoring budget. However, rare species were more often missed with fewer samples, with potential implications for monitoring of invasive or endangered species. These results should inform the design of eDNA sampling strategies, so that these can be optimised to achieve specific monitoring goals.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting COVID-19 trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID-19 forecasting was coordinated by a large group of universities, companies, and government entities led by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org). We evaluated approximately 9.7 million forecasts of weekly state-level COVID-19 cases for predictions 1-4 weeks into the future submitted by 24 teams from August 2020 to December 2021. We assessed coverage of central prediction intervals and weighted interval scores (WIS), adjusting for missing forecasts relative to a baseline forecast, and used a Gaussian generalized estimating equation (GEE) model to evaluate differences in skill across epidemic phases that were defined by the effective reproduction number. Overall, we found high variation in skill across individual models, with ensemble-based forecasts outperforming other approaches. Forecast skill relative to the baseline was generally higher for larger jurisdictions (e.g., states compared to counties). Over time, forecasts generally performed worst in periods of rapid changes in reported cases (either in increasing or decreasing epidemic phases) with 95% prediction interval coverage dropping below 50% during the growth phases of the winter 2020, Delta, and Omicron waves. Ideally, case forecasts could serve as a leading indicator of changes in transmission dynamics. However, while most COVID-19 case forecasts outperformed a naïve baseline model, even the most accurate case forecasts were unreliable in key phases. Further research could improve forecasts of leading indicators, like COVID-19 cases, by leveraging additional real-time data, addressing performance across phases, improving the characterization of forecast confidence, and ensuring that forecasts were coherent across spatial scales. In the meantime, it is critical for forecast users to appreciate current limitations and use a broad set of indicators to inform pandemic-related decision making.

Abstract Seasonal variation in habitat use and animal behavior can alter host contact patterns with potential consequences for pathogen transmission dynamics. The endangered Florida panther (Puma concolor coryi) has experienced significant pathogen-induced mortality and continues to be at risk of future epidemics. Prior research has found increased panther movement in Florida’s dry versus wet seasons, which may affect panther population connectivity and seasonally increase potential pathogen transmission. Our objective was to determine if Florida panthers are more spatially connected in dry seasons relative to wet seasons, and test if identified connectivity differences resulted in divergent predicted epidemic dynamics. We leveraged extensive panther telemetry data to construct seasonal panther home range overlap networks over an 11 year period. We tested for differences in network connectivity, and used observed network characteristics to simulate transmission of a broad range of pathogens through dry and wet season networks. We found that panthers were more spatially connected in dry seasons than wet seasons. Further, these differences resulted in a trend toward larger and longer pathogen outbreaks when epidemics were initiated in the dry season. Our results demonstrate that seasonal variation in behavioral patterns—even among largely solitary species—can have substantial impacts on epidemic dynamics.

IntroductionThe mapping of soil properties, such as soil texture, at the field scale is important Q6 in the context of national agricultural planning/policy and precision agriculture. Electromagnetic Induction (EMI) surveys are commonly used to measure soil apparent electrical conductivity and can provide valuable insights into such subsurface properties. MethodsMulti-receiver or multi-frequency instruments provide a vertical distribution of apparent conductivity beneath the instrument, while the mobility of such instruments allows for spatial coverage. Clustering is the grouping together of similar multi-dimensional data, such as the processed EMI data over a field. A neural network clustering process, where the number of clusters can be objectively determined, results in a set of one-dimensional apparent electrical conductivity cluster centers, which are representative of the entire three-dimensional dataset. These cluster centers are used to guide inversions of apparent conductivity data to give an estimate of the true electrical conductivity distribution at a site.Results and discussionThe method is applied to two sites and the results demonstrate a correlation between (true) electrical conductivity with soil texture (sampled prior to the EMI surveys) which is superior to correlations where no clustering is included. The method has the potential to be developed further, with the aim of improving the prediction of soil properties at cluster scale, such as texture, from EMI data. A particularly important conclusion from this initial study is that EMI data should be acquired prior to a focused soil sampling campaign to calibrate the electrical conductivity – soil property correlations.

The MIRI Exoplanets Orbiting White dwarfs survey is a cycle 2 JWST program to search for exoplanets around dozens of nearby white dwarfs via infrared excess and direct imaging. In this Letter, we present the detection of mid-infrared excess at 18 and 21 μ m toward the bright ( V = 11.4) metal-polluted white dwarf WD 0310–688. The source of the IR excess is almost certainly within the system; the probability of background contamination is

Abstract Background West Nile virus (WNV) is the leading cause of mosquito-borne illness in the continental USA. WNV occurrence has high spatiotemporal variation, and current approaches to targeted control of the virus are limited, making forecasting a public health priority. However, little research has been done to compare strengths and weaknesses of WNV disease forecasting approaches on the national scale. We used forecasts submitted to the 2020 WNV Forecasting Challenge, an open challenge organized by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, to assess the status of WNV neuroinvasive disease (WNND) prediction and identify avenues for improvement. Methods We performed a multi-model comparative assessment of probabilistic forecasts submitted by 15 teams for annual WNND cases in US counties for 2020 and assessed forecast accuracy, calibration, and discriminatory power. In the evaluation, we included forecasts produced by comparison models of varying complexity as benchmarks of forecast performance. We also used regression analysis to identify modeling approaches and contextual factors that were associated with forecast skill. Results Simple models based on historical WNND cases generally scored better than more complex models and combined higher discriminatory power with better calibration of uncertainty. Forecast skill improved across updated forecast submissions submitted during the 2020 season. Among models using additional data, inclusion of climate or human demographic data was associated with higher skill, while inclusion of mosquito or land use data was associated with lower skill. We also identified population size, extreme minimum winter temperature, and interannual variation in WNND cases as county-level characteristics associated with variation in forecast skill. Conclusions Historical WNND cases were strong predictors of future cases with minimal increase in skill achieved by models that included other factors. Although opportunities might exist to specifically improve predictions for areas with large populations and low or high winter temperatures, areas with high case-count variability are intrinsically more difficult to predict. Also, the prediction of outbreaks, which are outliers relative to typical case numbers, remains difficult. Further improvements to prediction could be obtained with improved calibration of forecast uncertainty and access to real-time data streams (e.g. current weather and preliminary human cases). Graphical Abstract

Space scientists often face the question of whether data collected by different instruments are measurements of the same source population. This paper proposes a statistical validation method for evaluating the agreement between such related data sets. It offers a detailed case study focused on validating a new data set from the Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX) mission, which serves as a practical how-to guide for similar analyses. Since 2008, the IBEX satellite has been gathering data on heliospheric energetic neutral atoms (ENAs) while being exposed to various sources of background noise, such as cosmic rays and solar energetic particles. The IBEX mission initially released only a qualified triple-coincidence (qABC) data product, which was designed to provide observations of ENAs free of background contamination. Further measurements revealed that the qABC data were in fact susceptible to contamination, having relatively low ENA counts and high background rates. To mitigate this issue, the mission team recently considered releasing a certain qualified double-coincidence (qBC) data product, which has roughly twice the detection rate of the qABC data product. This paper presents a simulation-based validation of the new qBC data product against the already-released qABC data product. The results show that the qBCs can plausibly be said to be measuring the same source population as the qABCs up to an average absolute deviation of 3.6%. Visual diagnostics provide additional confirmation of source rate coherence across data products. The framework introduced here is general and can be applied to other validation problems both within and outside the field of space physics.

Background: Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise the predictive performance of such forecasts if multiple models are combined into an ensemble. Here, we report on the performance of ensembles in predicting COVID-19 cases and deaths across Europe between 08 March 2021 and 07 March 2022. Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance. Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models. Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks. Funding: AA, BH, BL, LWa, MMa, PP, SV funded by National Institutes of Health (NIH) Grant 1R01GM109718, NSF BIG DATA Grant IIS-1633028, NSF Grant No.: OAC-1916805, NSF Expeditions in Computing Grant CCF-1918656, CCF-1917819, NSF RAPID CNS-2028004, NSF RAPID OAC-2027541, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 75D30119C05935, a grant from Google, University of Virginia Strategic Investment Fund award number SIF160, Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) under Contract No. HDTRA1-19-D-0007, and respectively Virginia Dept of Health Grant VDH-21-501-0141, VDH-21-501-0143, VDH-21-501-0147, VDH-21-501-0145, VDH-21-501-0146, VDH-21-501-0142, VDH-21-501-0148. AF, AMa, GL funded by SMIGE - Modelli statistici inferenziali per governare l'epidemia, FISR 2020-Covid-19 I Fase, FISR2020IP-00156, Codice Progetto: PRJ-0695. AM, BK, FD, FR, JK, JN, JZ, KN, MG, MR, MS, RB funded by Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Poland with grant 28/WFSN/2021 to the University of Warsaw. BRe, CPe, JLAz funded by Ministerio de Sanidad/ISCIII. BT, PG funded by PERISCOPE European H2020 project, contract number 101016233. CP, DL, EA, MC, SA funded by European Commission - Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology through the contract LC-01485746, and Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovacion y Universidades and FEDER, with the project PGC2018-095456-B-I00. DE., MGu funded by Spanish Ministry of Health / REACT-UE (FEDER). DO, GF, IMi, LC funded by Laboratory Directed Research and Development program of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) under project number 20200700ER. DS, ELR, GG, NGR, NW, YW funded by National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582; the content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health). FB, FP funded by InPresa, Lombardy Region, Italy. HG, KS funded by European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. IV funded by Agencia de Qualitat i Avaluacio Sanitaries de Catalunya (AQuAS) through contract 2021-021OE. JDe, SMo, VP funded by Netzwerk Universitatsmedizin (NUM) project egePan (01KX2021). JPB, SH, TH funded by Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF; grant 05M18SIA). KH, MSc, YKh funded by Project SaxoCOV, funded by the German Free State of Saxony. Presentation of data, model results and simulations also funded by the NFDI4Health Task Force COVID-19 (https://www.nfdi4health.de/task-force-covid-19-2) within the framework of a DFG-project (LO-342/17-1). LP, VE funded by Mathematical and Statistical modelling project (MUNI/A/1615/2020), Online platform for real-time monitoring, analysis and management of epidemic situations (MUNI/11/02202001/2020); VE also supported by RECETOX research infrastructure (Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic: LM2018121), the CETOCOEN EXCELLENCE (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/17-043/0009632), RECETOX RI project (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16-013/0001761). NIB funded by Health Protection Research Unit (grant code NIHR200908). SAb, SF funded by Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z).

Abstract: Although taurine has been identified as a required nutrient in several Seriola species, there are no available quantitative data on dietary taurine requirements for these commercially important species and recommendations are highly variable. Therefore, juvenile Seriola lalandi were fed one of eight practical diets supplemented with graded levels of taurine (0.11–1.08% of the dry diet, analyzed) to estimate their taurine requirement. Response in growth rate, feed efficiency, and nutrient deposition were evaluated using a broken‐quadratic model and 4‐ and 5‐parameter saturation kinetic models (4‐SKM and 5‐SKM) Blood serum composition was analyzed using linear models. Requirement estimates based on growth rates (thermal‐unit growth coefficient) and protein deposition were similar at 0.26% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.23–0.28) and 0.29% (95% CI: 0.25–0.34) dietary taurine, respectively. Feed and protein deposition efficiencies were optimized at 0.26–1.02% and 0.26–1.00% dietary taurine, respectively. Taurine deposition in the animal was maximized at higher dietary levels (0.64%). Levels of serum taurine increased in response to dietary levels and peaked at around 0.80% dietary taurine. Concomitantly, serum urea and total amino acid levels decreased with increasing dietary taurine levels, suggesting a reduced amino acid catabolism relative to the aforementioned improvement in protein deposition efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]