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We trace the evolution of research on extreme solar and solar-terrestrial events from the 1859 Carrington event to the rapid development of the last twenty years. Our focus is on the largest observed/inferred/theoretical cases of sunspot groups, flares on the Sun and Sun-like stars, coronal mass ejections, solar proton events, and geomagnetic storms. The reviewed studies are based on modern observations, historical or long-term data including the auroral and cosmogenic radionuclide record, and Kepler observations of Sun-like stars. We compile a table of 100- and 1000-year events based on occurrence frequency distributions for the space weather phenomena listed above. Questions considered include the Sun-like nature of superflare stars and the existence of impactful but unpredictable solar "black swans" and extreme "dragon king" solar phenomena that can involve different physics from that operating in events which are merely large., Comment: Invited review article for Living Reviews in Solar Physics

Solar coronal dimmings have been observed extensively in the past two decades. Due to their close association with coronal mass ejections (CMEs), there is a critical need to improve our understanding of the physical processes that cause dimmings as well as their relationship with CMEs. In this study, we investigate coronal dimmings by combining simulation and observational efforts. By utilizing a data-constrained global magnetohydrodynamics model (AWSoM: Alfven-wave Solar Model), we simulate coronal dimmings resulting from different CME energetics and flux rope configurations. We synthesize the emissions of different EUV spectral bands/lines and compare with SDO/AIA and EVE observations. A detailed analysis of the simulation and observation data suggests that the transient dimming / brightening are related to plasma heating processes, while the long-lasting core and remote dimmings are caused by mass loss process induced by the CME. Moreover, the interaction between the erupting flux rope with different orientations and the global solar corona could significantly influence the coronal dimming patterns. Using metrics such as dimming depth and dimming slope, we investigate the relationship between dimmings and CME properties (e.g., CME mass, CME speed) in the simulation. Our result suggests that coronal dimmings encode important information about the associated CMEs, which provides a physical basis for detecting stellar CMEs from distant solar-like stars., Comment: 16 pages, 9 figures, accepted for publication in ApJ

Major solar flares are prone to occur in active region atmospheres associated with large, complex, dynamically-evolving sunspots. This points to the importance of monitoring the evolution of starspots, not only in visible but also in ultra violet (UV) and X-rays, in understanding the origin and occurrence of stellar flares. To this end, we perform spectral irradiance analysis on different types of transiting solar active regions by using a variety of full-disk synoptic observations. The target events are an isolated sunspot, spotless plage, and emerging flux in prolonged quiet-Sun conditions selected from the past decade. We find that the visible continuum and total solar irradiance become darkened when the spot is at the central meridian, whereas it is bright near the solar limb; UV bands sensitive to the chromosphere correlate well with the variation of total unsigned magnetic flux in the photosphere; amplitudes of EUV and soft X-ray increase with the characteristic temperature, whose light curves are flat-topped due to their sensitivity to the optically thin corona; the transiting spotless plage does not show the darkening in the visible irradiance, while the emerging flux produces an asymmetry in all light curves about the central meridian. The multi-wavelength sun-as-a-star study described here indicates that such time lags between the coronal and photospheric light curves have the potential to probe the extent of coronal magnetic fields above the starspots. In addition, EUV wavelengths that are sensitive to the transition-region temperature sometimes show anti-phased variations, which may be used for diagnosing plasmas around starspots., Comment: 20 pages, 11 figures, 3 tables, accepted for publication in ApJ

Solar coronal dimmings have been observed extensively in the past two decades and are believed to have close association with coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Recent study found that coronal dimming is the only signature that could differentiate powerful ares that have CMEs from those that do not. Therefore, dimming might be one of the best candidates to observe the stellar CMEs on distant Sun-like stars. In this study, we investigate the possibility of using coronal dimming as a proxy to diagnose stellar CMEs. By simulating a realistic solar CME event and corresponding coronal dimming using a global magnetohydrodynamics model (AWSoM: Alfven-wave Solar Model), we first demonstrate the capability of the model to reproduce solar observations. We then extend the model for simulating stellar CMEs by modifying the input magnetic flux density as well as the initial magnetic energy of the CME flux rope. Our result suggests that with improved instrument sensitivity, it is possible to detect the coronal dimming signals induced by the stellar CMEs., Comment: 8 pages, 4 figures, to appear in the Proceedings of IAU Symposium No. 354 - Solar and Stellar Magnetic Fields: Origins and Manifestations

Transits of exoplanets across cool stars contain blended information about structures on the stellar surface and about the planetary body and atmosphere. To advance understanding of how this information is entangled, a surface-flux transport code, based on observed properties of the Sun's magnetic field, is used to simulate the appearance of hypothetical stellar photospheres from the visible near 4000 Angstrom to the near-IR at 1.6 micron, by mapping intensities characteristic of faculae and spots onto stellar disks. Stellar appearances are computed for a Sun-like star of solar activity up to a star with mean magnetic flux density ~30 times higher. Simulated transit signals for a Jupiter-class planet are compared with observations. This (1) suggests that the solar paradigm is consistent with observations for stars throughout the activity range explored provided that infrequent large active regions with fluxes up to $\sim 3\times 10^{23}$ Mx are included in the emergence spectrum, (2) quantitatively confirms that for such a model, faculae brighten relatively inactive stars while starspots dim more active stars, (3) suggests that large starspots inferred from transits of active stars are consistent with clusters of more compact spots seen in the model runs, (4) that wavelength-dependent transit-depth effects caused by stellar magnetic activity for the range of activity and the planetary diameter studied here can introduce apparent changes in the inferred exoplanetary radii across wavelengths from a few hundred to a few thousand kilometers, increasing with activity, and (5) that activity-modulated distortions of broadband stellar radiance across the visible to near-IR spectrum can reach several percent., Comment: Accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal. Version corrected to match paper in print

Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), especially the larger ones, emanate from active regions (ARs). With the aim to understand the magnetic properties that govern such flares and eruptions, we systematically survey all flare events with GOES levels of >=M5.0 within 45 deg from disk center between May 2010 and April 2016. These criteria lead to a total of 51 flares from 29 ARs, for which we analyze the observational data obtained by the Solar Dynamics Observatory. More than 80% of the 29 ARs are found to exhibit delta-sunspots and at least three ARs violate Hale's polarity rule. The flare durations are approximately proportional to the distance between the two flare ribbons, to the total magnetic flux inside the ribbons, and to the ribbon area. From our study, one of the parameters that clearly determine whether a given flare event is CME-eruptive or not is the ribbon area normalized by the sunspot area, which may indicate that the structural relationship between the flaring region and the entire AR controls CME productivity. AR characterization show that even X-class events do not require delta-sunspots or strong-field, high-gradient polarity inversion lines. An investigation of historical observational data suggests the possibility that the largest solar ARs, with magnetic flux of 2x10^23 Mx, might be able to produce "superflares" with energies of order of 10^34 erg. The proportionality between the flare durations and magnetic energies is consistent with stellar flare observations, suggesting a common physical background for solar and stellar flares., Comment: 31 pages, 12 figures, 3 tables, accepted for publication in ApJ. A high-quality version can be found at http://www-space.eps.s.u-tokyo.ac.jp/~toriumi/toriumi2016apj.pdf

After more than half a century of community support related to the science of "solar activity'', IAU's Commission 10 was formally discontinued in 2015, to be succeeded by C.E2 with the same area of responsibility. On this occasion, we look back at the growth of the scientific disciplines involved around the world over almost a full century. Solar activity and fields of research looking into the related physics of the heliosphere continue to be vibrant and growing, with currently over 2,000 refereed publications appearing per year from over 4,000 unique authors, publishing in dozens of distinct journals and meeting in dozens of workshops and conferences each year. The size of the rapidly growing community and of the observational and computational data volumes, along with the multitude of connections into other branches of astrophysics, pose significant challenges; aspects of these challenges are beginning to be addressed through, among others, the development of new systems of literature reviews, machine-searchable archives for data and publications, and virtual observatories. As customary in these reports, we highlight some of the research topics that have seen particular interest over the most recent triennium, specifically active-region magnetic fields, coronal thermal structure, coronal seismology, flares and eruptions, and the variability of solar activity on long time scales. We close with a collection of developments, discoveries, and surprises that illustrate the range and dynamics of the discipline., Comment: To be published in the Transactions of the IAU, by the International Astronomical Union

Large solar flares and eruptions may influence remote regions through perturbations in the outer-atmospheric magnetic field, leading to causally related events outside of the primary or triggering eruptions that are referred to as "sympathetic events." We quantify the occurrence of sympathetic events using the full-disk observations by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory associated with all flares of GOES class M5 or larger from 01 May 2010 through 31 December 2014. Using a superposed-epoch analysis, we find an increase in the rate of flares, filament eruptions, and substantial sprays and surges more than 20 degrees away from the primary flares within the first four hours at a significance of 1.8 standard deviations. We also find that the rate of distant events drops by two standard deviations, or a factor of 1.2, when comparing intervals between 4 hours and 24 hours before and after the start times of the primary large flares. We discuss the evidence for the concluding hypothesis that the gradual evolution leading to the large flare and the impulsive release of the energy in that flare both contribute to the destabilization of magnetic configurations in distant active regions and quiet-Sun areas. These effects appear to leave distant regions, in an ensemble sense, in a more stable state, so that fewer energetic events happen for at least a day following large energetic events., Comment: In press for Solar Physics. 9 pages, 3 figures

Society needs to prepare for more severe space weather than it has experienced in the modern technological era. To enable that, we must both quantify extreme-event characteristics and analyze impacts of lesser events that are frequent yet severe enough to be informative. Exploratory studies suggest that economic impacts of a century-level space hurricane and of a century of lesser space-weather "gales" may turn out to be of the same order of magnitude. The economic benefits of effective mitigation of the impacts of space gales may substantially exceed the required investments, even as these investments provide valuable information to prepare for the worst possible storms., Comment: In press for Space Weather Journal

We test the feasibility of 3D coronal-loop tracing in stereoscopic EUV image pairs, with the ultimate goal of enabling efficient 3D reconstruction of the coronal magnetic field that drives flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). We developed an automated code designed to perform triangulation of coronal loops in pairs (or triplets) of EUV images recorded from different perspectives. The automated (or blind) stereoscopy code includes three major tasks: (i) automated pattern recognition of coronal loops in EUV images, (ii) automated pairing of corresponding loop patterns from two different aspect angles, and (iii) stereoscopic triangulation of 3D loop coordinates. We perform tests with simulated stereoscopic EUV images and quantify the accuracy of all three procedures. In addition we test the performance of the blind stereoscopy code as a function of the spacecraft-separation angle and as a function of the spatial resolution. We also test the sensitivity to magnetic non-potentiality. The automated code developed here can be used for analysis of existing {\sl Solar TErrestrial RElationship Observatory (STEREO)} data, but primarily serves for a design study of a future mission with dedicated diagnostics of non-potential magnetic fields. For a pixel size of 0.6\arcsec (corresponding to the {\sl Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA)} spatial resolution of 1.4\arcsec), we find an optimum spacecraft-separation angle of $\alpha_s \approx 5^\circ$., Comment: Solar Physics (accepted 2015 June 15), in press

There is a growing appreciation that the environmental conditions that we call space weather impact the technological infrastructure that powers the coupled economies around the world. With that comes the need to better shield society against space weather by improving forecasts, environmental specifications, and infrastructure design. [...] advanced understanding of space weather requires a coordinated international approach to effectively provide awareness of the processes within the Sun-Earth system through observation-driven models. This roadmap prioritizes the scientific focus areas and research infrastructure that are needed to significantly advance our understanding of space weather of all intensities and of its implications for society. Advancement of the existing system observatory through the addition of small to moderate state-of-the-art capabilities designed to fill observational gaps will enable significant advances. Such a strategy requires urgent action: key instrumentation needs to be sustained, and action needs to be taken before core capabilities are lost in the aging ensemble. We recommend advances through priority focus (1) on observation-based modeling throughout the Sun-Earth system, (2) on forecasts more than 12 hrs ahead of the magnetic structure of incoming coronal mass ejections, (3) on understanding the geospace response to variable solar-wind stresses that lead to intense geomagnetically-induced currents and ionospheric and radiation storms, and (4) on developing a comprehensive specification of space climate, including the characterization of extreme space storms to guide resilient and robust engineering of technological infrastructures. The roadmap clusters its implementation recommendations by formulating three action pathways, and outlines needed instrumentation and research programs and infrastructure for each of these. [...], Comment: In press for Advances of Space Research: an international roadmap on the science of space weather, commissioned by COSPAR and ILWS (63 pages and 4 figures)