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Data acquisition for sustainable forest management has focused on obtaining high quality information to estimate biomass. Improving the quality of non-timber sustainability indicators, like deadwood volume, has been a minor interest. To explore how inventory approaches could be improved, we applied a Global Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis (GUSA) to evaluate which factors propagate more errors in deadwood modelling and how better data collection can minimize them. The impact of uncertainty on deadwood characteristics (diameter, collapse ratio, decay class, tree species, and position) was explored under stakeholders´ preferences, management actions, and climate change scenarios. GUSA showed that removing the prediction error in deadwood tree species and diameter would alter the most the total uncertainty in deadwood volume. We found that assessment of high deadwood volume was less uncertain for the scenarios where small deadwood items were left decaying on the forest floor (BAU) and for high-end climate change scenario (RCP8.5) which resulted in lower deadwood accumulation in forest stands and therefore also in lower likelihood of erroneous estimates. Reduced uncertainty in tree species and diameter class will elevate the certainty of deadwood volume to a similar level achieved in living biomass estimation. Our uncertainty and sensitivity analysis was successful in ranking factors propagating errors in estimate of deadwood and identified a strategy to minimize uncertainty in predicting deadwood characteristics. The estimation of uncertainty in deadwood levels under the scenarios developed in our study can help decision makers to evaluate risk of decreasing deadwood value for biodiversity conservation and climate change mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Management of drained peatlands may pose a risk or a solution on the way towards climate change mitigation, which creates a need to evaluate the current state of forestry-drained peatlands, the magnitude of degradation processes and indicators for carbon (C) loss. Using a large dataset (778 profiles, 891 peat samples, collected between 1977 and 2017) from peatlands having different fertility classes across Finland, we investigate whether the surface peat profiles of undrained and forestry-drained peatlands differ in C:N, von Post and dry bulk density. The utility of element ratios (C:N:H stoichiometry) as site indicators for degradation were further analyzed from a subsample of 16 undrained and 30 drained peat profiles. This subsample of drained sites had carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) fluxes measured allowing us to link peat element ratios to annual C gas effluxes. Element ratios H:C, O:C and C:N and degree of unsaturation (combining C, N, H changes) were found widely valid: they captured both differences in the botanical origin of peat as well as its potential decomposition pathway (C lost via a combination of dissolved organic C and C gas loss and/or the gaseous loss predominantly as CO2). Of the stoichiometric indexes, peat H:C ratio seemed to be the best proxy for degradation following drainage, it indicated not only long-term degradation but also explained 48% of the variation in annual CO2 emission. The O:C ratio positively correlated with annual CH4 flux, presumably because high O:C in peat reflected the availability of easily degradable substrate for methanogenesis. The differences in C:N ratio indicated notable decomposition processes for Sphagnum-dominated peatlands but not in Carex-dominated peatlands. Degree of unsaturation showed potential for an integrative proxy for drainage-induced lowering water table and post-drainage changes in peat substrate quality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Today, city planners design urban futures by considering environmental degradation and climate mitigation. Here, we studied the greenhouse gas fluxes of urban lawns and meadows and linked the observations with plant functional types and soil properties. In eight lawns and eight meadows in the Helsinki metropolitan area, Finland, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) fluxes were measured using manual chambers, and plant functional types were recorded. Four of these sites, i.e. an irrigated lawn, an old mesic meadow, a non-irrigated lawn and a young dry meadow, were more intensively studied in 2021–2022. The process-based ecosystem model JSBACH was utilized together with the momentary observations collected approximately every second week on CO2 exchange to quantify the annual carbon (C) balance of these sites. On the remaining sites, we studied the initial dynamics of conversion from lawns to meadows by transforming parts of lawns to meadows in late 2020 and conducting measurements from 2020 to 2022. The mean photosynthetic production (GPP) of the irrigated lawn and mesic meadow was the highest in this study, whereas the dry meadow had the lowest GPP. The studied lawns were stronger C sinks compared to the meadows. However, the net exchange values were uncertain as the soils were not in equilibrium with the vegetation at all sites, which is common for urban habitats, and modelling the heterotrophic emissions was therefore challenging. The conversion from a lawn to a meadow did not affect the fluxes of CH4 and N2O. Moreover, the mesic meadow was more resistant to drought events than the non-irrigated lawn. Lastly, the proportion of herbaceous flowering plants other than grasses was higher in meadows than in lawns. Even though social and economic aspects also steer urban development, these results can guide planning when considering environmentally friendlier green spaces and carbon smartness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change mitigation requires countries to report their annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and sinks, including those from land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF). In Finland, the LULUCF sector plays a crucial role in achieving net-zero GHG emissions, as the sector is expected to be a net sink. However, accurate estimates of LULUCF-related GHG emissions, such as methane (CH 4 ), remain challenging. We estimated LULUCF-related CH 4 emissions in Finland in 2013–2020 by combining national land cover and remote-sensed surface wetness data with CH 4 emissions estimated by an inversion model. According to our inversion model, most of Finland's CH 4 emissions were attributed to natural sources such as open pristine peatlands. However, our research indicated that forests with thin tree cover surrounding open peatlands may also be a significant source of CH 4 . Unlike open pristine peatlands and pristine peatlands with thin tree cover, surrounding transient forests are included in the Finnish GHG inventory if they meet the criteria used for forest land. The current Finnish national GHG inventory may therefore underestimate CH 4 emissions from forested organic soils surrounding open peatlands, although more precise methods and data are needed to verify this. Given the potential impact on net GHG emissions, CH 4 emissions from transitional forests on organic soils should be further investigated. Furthermore, the results demonstrate the potential of combining atmospheric inversion modelling of GHGs with diverse data sources and highlight the need for methods to more easily combine atmospheric inversions with national GHG inventories. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Harvested wood products (HWP) may contribute to climate change mitigation by storing carbon and by replacing energy‐intensive materials and fossil energy, reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, when assessing improved HWP utilisations, interactions between wood use pathways, the carbon stock dynamics, and the resulting effect on the GHG balance are still not well‐understood. This research aims to assess the carbon sequestration effects of alternative wood product utilisations in four European Union (EU) countries. We conducted a material flow analysis of wood uses in France, Finland, Germany, and Spain for 2017 taking into account national production, imports, and exports. Then, we quantified the future dynamics of carbon stock in the HWP through time, assuming the same as in 2017 input and ignoring the forest sink. We then ran six alternative scenarios: two energy‐focused (Energy, Energy+), two material‐focused (Cascading, Material), one with extended half‐life of the wood products (HL) and one as business as usual. For the simulation period (2020–2050), the material scenario leads to the highest mitigation benefits with a cumulative HWP net CO2 removals of −502 Mt CO2 for Germany, −290 Mt CO2 for France, −118 Mt CO2 for Spain, and −116 Mt CO2 for Finland over the 30 years. The Energy+ scenario with an increase in wood usage for bioenergy generates a loss of the HWP pool of 351, 80, 77, and 6 Mt CO2 for the same countries, not accounting for energy substitution effects. Overall, our results suggest that the HWP carbon stock can be increased in the short‐medium term by prioritizing the use of wood for material purposes, while maintaining constant harvest. The HWP mitigation potential differed greatly according to national wood industry characteristics. Hence, tailoring the HWP mitigation strategies to the specific characteristics of the national wood chain would enhance the HWP climate benefits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Media representations of the future are a key component of climate change and energy policies. This study integrates media analysis with futures studies and focuses on the media framings and representations of futures related to key national-level energy and climate strategy documents. It utilizes qualitative content analysis of online news articles of Finland's national public broadcasting company committed to high-quality journalism. The results show that a more multifaceted coverage of climate action increased during the study period of 2015–2020, especially in terms of frames and future scenario archetypes, and indicate gradually widening awareness of climate risks. However, climate change has been framed as an isolated policy area, and climate change mitigation and adaptation remain framed as subordinate to economic policy targets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Peatlands are significant to global efforts to combat climate change. However, to date, they have been a missing piece in the climate change mitigation policy puzzle in the European Union (EU). Taking a policy coherence perspective, we investigate how policies from different governance levels—that is, EU, member state, and regional levels—support and impede existing and new policies for climate-friendly peatland usage. We put a particular focus on incentive-based policy instruments, because such incentives are often advocated as promising policy instruments for supporting the transition to the sustainable management of peatlands. We selected the three peatland-rich EU countries Finland, Germany, and the Netherlands. Based on semi-structured interviews with 35 experts, we indicate a lack of horizontal policy coherence between agriculture, nature conservation, water management, forestry, energy, and climate policies in terms of climate change mitigation measures on peatlands. At the EU level, most prominently, the Common Agricultural Policy counteracts climate targets because direct payments currently encourage the unsustainable management of peatlands. At the national and subnational levels, water quality in Finland, nature conservation in Germany, and subsidence in the Netherlands were primary objectives of peatland relevant policies. Due to a lack of clear guidance on raising the groundwater table, the current incentive-based policy instruments are ineffective for reducing emissions. Despite its higher mitigation potential, potential incentive-based policies for rewetting encounter various regulatory barriers caused by the policy incoherence. We conclude that the transition to climate-friendly peatland usage requires coherent regulatory frameworks and incentive-based policies supporting rewetting. • We demonstrate the multi-sectoral and multi-level nature of peatland policies in the EU. • Agriculture, nature, water, and energy policies often impede horizontal coherence. • Conflicts between EU, national, and regional policies hinder vertical coherence. • Regulatory frameworks and incentive-based policies should be coherent. • Current incentive-based policy instruments are ineffective for emissions reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Finland, the widespread drainage of boreal peatlands has led to increased forest productivity. The cost is a dramatic increase in soil greenhouse gas emissions. Empirical research of drained peatlands has found a correlation between greenhouse gas emissions and the ground water table. This suggests an opportunity to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions through forest management. We explore this opportunity at the landscape level through a simulation and optimization framework. We explore how forest management actions can impact the ground water table and the related greenhouse gas emissions. There are various economic and societal constraints for a set of forested peatland landscapes in Finland. First, we link forest simulations with hydrological and statistical models to predict CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions from the drained peatlands. We then present the range of landscape level solutions that prioritize between minimizing the net ecosystem greenhouse gas emissions, the economic timber value, and the even flow of timber income over time. Our results highlight the impact that integrating peatland soil greenhouse gas emissions will have on the planning process. This promotes the use of management options that benefit both biomass growth and reduced peatland soil greenhouse gas emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Food security under climate change, several sustainability problems, and ambitious climate targets are considered challenges for agriculture and food sectors in many countries. Since agricultural production and its land use produce appr. 20% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of Finland, reducing agricultural GHG emissions is important for meeting national target of climate neutrality by 2035. Healthier food diets, maintenance of biodiversity, and reduced nutrient leaching from agriculture are also required for a more sustainable food economy. This paper aims to show how agriculture in Finland, traditionally dominated by livestock production, could decrease GHG emissions significantly and simultaneously respond to other sustainability concerns. Our results, based on economic modelling of the agricultural sector, suggest that moderate changes in food diets and land use can reduce GHG emissions of agriculture by more than 40% by 2050 if productivity growth and policy changes support the overall change in the agriculture and food sector. Adaptation to climate change, e.g. more higher crop yields efficient input use, is necessary for productivity growth. Decreased demand for meat and decreased cultivation of feed crops would decrease GHG emissions and free up land for carbon sequestration through afforestation. Whilst healthier food diets imply less livestock and increased imports of protein crops for food, a reasonable volume of livestock production is useful for maintaining food security, grasslands, crop rotations, soil carbon, and biodiversity. We conclude that transition to low carbon and more sustainable agriculture is possible without risking food security at northern latitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding landowners' willingness to act on climate change is important for effective climate policy. This study investigates the determinants of Finnish non-industrial private forest owners' preferences for alternative climate change mitigation strategies related to forests and wood use. The study tests hypotheses concerning the role of risk perception and political leaning for the support of seven alternative strategies with varying degree of disruption to the current logic of commercial forestry in Finland, which further aligns with the temporal delay in the impact of climate change mitigation strategies that landowners are willing to accept. Based on 887 survey responses from three regions, the study finds that forest owners generally support all but one of the seven strategies: reduced harvest. Results from ordinal logistic regression models further indicate that along with socio-demographic determinants, higher perceived risk and left-wing leaning with a university degree explain support for more disruptive strategies with more immediate mitigation impact (increased conservation, reduced harvest), while lower perceived risk and right-wing leaning without a university degree tend to associate with support for the less disruptive strategies (intensified management, increased harvest), both of which arguably sideline the urgency of climate action. In the highly politicized matter of harvest levels in Finland, the study also finds that right-wing leaning may negate the effect of higher education, which otherwise predicts greater support for more disruptive strategies. Implications for policy at the climate-forest nexus are derived. • Preferences of forest owners for mitigation strategies in forests were investigated. • Ordinal logistic regression with 887 survey responses was used. • Forest owners support all but one of the seven strategies: reduced harvest. • High perceived risk and left-wing leaning explain support for strengthening sinks. • Political leaning influences effect of higher education on support for strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• CAP subsidy regime is keeping peatland in production, causing high GHG emissions. • Emission abatement payments would lead to reduction in GHG emissions in agriculture. • The largest reduction in GHG emissions is by reducing peatland use and diet change. • Diet change with decrease in animal production would lead to a drop in farm income. • Just transition for farmers in livestock dominated regions is a policy challenge. This study, based on agricultural sector modelling, shows how changes in food consumption and land use measures can reduce GHG emissions from Finnish agriculture, and what are the impacts on regional levels of agricultural production, land use, GHG emissions, and farm income. The results demonstrate that it is difficult to achieve a large reduction in GHG emissions from agriculture by just changing diet alone. There is a big disparity in the distribution of farm income among the main regions in Finland due to a radical decrease in the consumption of livestock products. However, land use measures alone do not create the disparity in farm income among the different regions. Combining changes in diet and land use is the most effective in mitigating GHG emissions from agriculture, but the relatively disadvantaged regions with high shares of livestock production and peatlands may experience major restructuring in agriculture and land use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In December 2022, representatives adopted the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF). The overarching goal of the agreement is to halt biodiversity loss and restore natural ecosystems – and a much-cited target is the "30x30" target of protecting and restoring 30% of Earth by 2030. Salt marshes are highly productive coastal ecosystems relevant for both biodiversity and climate change mitigation but have experienced historical major losses and are among the habitats in need of protection and restoration. Currently, there is little knowledge about how salt marshes are valued from a societal perspective, which has important management implications. This is particularly the case in the Nordic region where awareness of these habitats is low. Using survey data from Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, and Germany, this study contributes understanding how citizens value salt marshes by examining support for different management initiatives framed as contributing to the goal of either biodiversity protection or climate change mitigation. Generally, both respondents primed with information about the importance of salt marshes for biodiversity and for climate change mitigation were supportive of the management initiatives despite having little previous knowledge of salt marshes. For one initiative, respondents who were informed of the importance of salt marshes for biodiversity were slightly more likely to support the management initiative than those informed about the importance of salt marshes for climate change mitigation. Our study provides guidance for assessment of trade-offs from a human valuation perspective, thus supporting policy makers when considering arguments for salt marsh management within the context of the 30x30 targets for protected areas. • When salt marshes were framed as important ecosystems, there was public support for management initiatives. • Respondents primed with information on the potential importance of salt marshes for climate change mitigation were not more supportive of management initiatives. • Initiatives with the least direct monetary contribution gained the most public support. • Public support for salt marsh management initiatives differed based on country and, in some cases, age and gender. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global agriculture faces severe challenges due to climate change. For boreal agriculture, climate change might also bring opportunities as the growing season lengthens, if the risks of climate change are managed properly. Agricultural production is a source of greenhouse gases, while agricultural land has also a great possibility to mitigate climate change as a carbon sink. Farmers are the central group for implementing these actions. Their views and beliefs contribute to their corresponding pro-environmental agricultural behavior. This research is based on the theory of value-belief-norm (VBN) as a predictive model of pro-environmental agricultural behavior. We extend the theory by studying how opportunities caused by climate change affect pro-environmental behavior in agriculture and present differences between farmer groups and experiment with the longitudinal possibilities of the theoretical model. Based on the structured survey responses from 4,401 farmers in Finland in 2018 and 2000 responses in 2020, we found that all the elements of VBN theory did help to predict intention for climate change mitigation, among which felt possibility to perform mitigation practices was the strongest predictor while risk perception was rather an unimportant one. Furthermore, opportunities caused directly or indirectly by climate change have an effect on Finnish farmer's implementation of mitigation practices. Therefore, future efforts in agricultural research and policy in Finland should concentrate to bring forth concrete farm-level mitigation practices with proven environmental benefits and the direct and indirect opportunities should be given more attention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reliable, up-to-date biomass data are needed for climate change mitigation and resource efficiency. Therefore, a calculation and reporting tool with thematic maps and data was developed. A free web-tool, Biomass Atlas, collects the spatial distribution of biomasses in Finland. Over 300 data layers present land use, cultivation, residual biomasses from forest, crop production, animal husbandry, municipalities, and industry at 1 km2 spatial resolution. The service enables calculations of biomass amount in a defined geographical area of interest and examining the opportunities and restrictions to utilise biomasses. The service was evaluated with six test-users in laboratory tests and 20 voluntary pilot test-users. Biomass Atlas shows the regional potential of biomaterials, fertilizer products, and renewable energy, as well as potential targets for utilized, recyclable biomass. Other possible uses include monitoring plant cover on fields and assessing land use diversity. Application enables users with no experience in GIS or biomass assessments to analyse biomass resources, produce maps and data summaries for decision making. [Display omitted] • Biomass Atlas is a spatially explicit web application to assess the biomass data. • Amounts and location of produced and recyclable biomass in Finland. • Forests, agricultural areas, crops and sidestreams on thematic maps. • Biomass modelling and calculation tools are given at 1 km2 spatial resolution. • Data for decision making on biomass utilisation for biomaterials, nutrients, and energy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forest biomass and carbon monitoring play a key role in climate change mitigation. Operational large area monitoring approaches are needed to enable forestry stakeholders to meet the increasing monitoring and reporting requirements. Here, we demonstrate the functionality of a cloud-based approach utilizing Sentinel-2 composite imagery and process-based ecosystem model to produce large area forest volume and primary production estimates. We describe the main components of the approach and implementation of the processing pipeline into the Forestry TEP cloud processing platform and produce four large area output maps: (1) Growing stock volume (GSV), (2) Gross primary productivity (GPP), (3) Net primary productivity (NPP) and (4) Stem volume increment (SVI), covering Finland and the Russian boreal forests until the Ural Mountains in 10 m spatial resolution. The accuracy of the forest structural variables evaluated in Finland reach pixel level relative Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values comparable to earlier studies (basal area 39.4%, growing stock volume 58.5%, diameter 35.5% and height 33.5%), although most of the earlier studies have concentrated on smaller study areas. This can be considered a positive sign for the feasibility of the approach for large area primary production modelling, since forest structural variables are the main input for the process-based ecosystem model used in the study. The full coverage output maps show consistent quality throughout the target area, with major regional variations clearly visible, and with noticeable fine details when zoomed into full resolution. The demonstration conducted in this study lays foundation for further development of an operational large area forest monitoring system that allows annual reporting of forest biomass and carbon balance from forest stand level to regional analyses. The system is seamlessly aligned with process based ecosystem modelling, enabling forecasting and future scenario simulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents an approach for assessing lifestyle carbon footprints and lifestyle change options aimed at achieving the 1.5 °C climate goal and facilitating the transition to decarbonized lifestyles through stakeholder participatory research. Using data on Finland and Japan it shows potential impacts of reducing carbon footprints through changes in lifestyles for around 30 options covering food, housing, and mobility domains, in comparison with the 2030 and 2050 per-capita targets (2.5–3.2 tCO2e by 2030; 0.7–1.4 tCO2e by 2050). It discusses research opportunities for expanding the footprint-based quantitative analysis to incorporate subnational analysis, living lab, and scenario development aiming at advancing sustainability science on the transition to decarbonized lifestyles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nordic catchments provide a variety of ecosystem services, from harvestable goods to mitigation of climate change and recreational possibilities. Flows of supplied ecosystem services depend on a broad range of factors, including climate, hydrology, land management and human population density. The aims of this study were: 1) to quantify the total economic value (TEV) of consumed ecosystem services across Nordic catchments, 2) to explain variation in ecosystem service value using socio-geographic and natural factors as explanatory variables in multiple linear regression, and 3) to determine which societal groups benefit from these ecosystem services. Furthermore, we tested the scientific rigour of our framework based on the concept of final ecosystem services (FES). We used a spatially explicit, integrative framework for ecosystem services quantification to compile data on final ecosystem services provision from six catchments across Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. Our estimates showed a broad variation in TEV and in the proportion contributed by separate services, with the highest TEV of €7,199 ± 4,561 ha-1 y-1 (mean ± standard deviation) in the Norwegian Orrevassdraget catchment, and the lowest TEV of €183 ± 517 ha-1 y-1 in the Finnish Simojoki catchment. The value of material services was dependent on both geographic factors and land management practices, while the value of immaterial services was strongly dependent on population density and the availability of water. Using spatial data on land use, forest productivity and population density in a GIS analysis showed where hotspots of ecosystem services supply are located, and where specific stakeholder groups benefit most. We show that our framework is applicable to a broad variety of data sources and across countries, making international comparative analyses possible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this paper is to analyse role of forest industry in meeting energy and climate targets that aim to mitigating global change. Finland as an important forest industry country with the ambitious target of becoming carbon neutral by 2035 is selected to a target county. This study aims to present a plausible assessment of the future of the Finnish forest industry until 2035 based on literature and a scenario building approach. The focus is on energy use and fossil carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The results suggest that electricity consumption will decrease, whereas electricity production will increase, which indicates that forest industry can provide more renewable electricity to the grid. Heat consumption may even increase as a result from building new biorefineries, but those mills can most probably meet their heat demand by combusting biofuels. Changes in forest industry's direct fossil CO2 emissions can reduce Finnish fossil CO2 emissions 2─4% in comparison to 2018. Biofuels production is likely to rise, but the extent remains to be seen. It is concluded that the Finnish forest industry can contribute significantly to meeting national climate policy targets, and forest industry in general can play a role in mitigating global change. Additionally, it was found that development of the Finnish forest industry will probably be limited by the requirement for sustainable wood harvesting, which may also be a problem for other forest industry countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sequestering carbon into agricultural soils is considered as a means of mitigating climate change. We used agronomic soil test results representing c. 95% of the farmed land area in Finland to estimate the potential of the uppermost 15 cm soil layer of mineral agricultural soils to sequester organic carbon (OC) and to contribute to the mitigation of climate change. The estimation of the maximum capacity of mineral matter to protect OC in stable mineral-associated form was based on the theory that clay and fine-sized (fines = clay + silt) particles have a limited capacity to protect OC. In addition, we used the clay/OC and fines/OC ratios to identify areas with a risk of erosion and reduced productivity, thus indicating priority areas potentially benefitting from the increased soil OC contents. We found that 32–40% of the mineral agricultural soils in Finland have the potential to further accumulate mineral-associated OC (MOC), while in the majority of soils, the current OC stock in the uppermost 15 cm exceeded the capacity of mineral matter to protect OC. The nationwide soil OC sequestration potential of the uppermost 15 cm in mineral agricultural soils ranged between 0.21 and 0.26 Tg, which corresponds to less than 2% of annual greenhouse gas emissions in Finland. The fields with the highest potential for SOC accrual were found in the southern and southwestern parts of the country, including some of the most intensively cultivated high-clay soils. Although the nationwide potential for additional OC sequestration was estimated to be relatively small, the current OC storage in Finnish arable mineral soils (0-15 cm) is large, 128 Tg. Farming practices enabling maximum OC input into the soil play an important role as a tool for mitigating the loss of carbon from high-OC soils in the changing climate. Furthermore, especially in high-clay areas with potential for MOC accrual, efforts to increase soil OC could help improve soil structural stability and therefore reduce erosion and the loss of nutrients to the aquatic environments. [Display omitted] • We estimated the potential of mineral arable soils for organic carbon sequestration • Nationwide carbon sequestration potential in the uppermost soil layer was 0.21–0.26 Tg • Less than 40% of mineral arable soils have potential to increase stable organic carbon • Greatest potential lies in the intensively cultivated high-clay soils • Maintenance of current significant carbon stock (128 Tg, 0–15 cm) should be secured [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Carbon footprint at the UBI consumption level is 4.8 tCO 2 -eq per capita. • UBI carbon footprint is around half of the average carbon footprint in Finland. • Downscaling consumption alone is not enough to achieve sustainable lifestyles. • Additional mitigation solutions are needed alongside downscaling. • At a societal level, downscaling is hard to reconcile with high social security. Human economic activities and following carbon emissions have been recognized to be a real threat to the environment. The current levels of consumption-based carbon footprints in all developed economies grossly exceed the sustainable level. Scientists have concluded that in addition to technological solutions, downscaling of consumption and far-reaching changes in lifestyles will be needed to achieve environmental sustainability. In this study, we provide a tangible real-world example that reveals the scale of the needed change from a perspective of a European welfare state citizen. Universal basic income (UBI) represents an income that is just enough to fulfil basic needs, such as food, shelter, and medication. In our case country, Finland, UBI is in practice at the same level as the income of the lowest income decile. The purpose of this study is to present and analyse the carbon footprints at a consumption level that corresponds to UBI. We compare the carbon footprints at this low-income level to average Finnish carbon footprints and discuss their sustainability in the light of global carbon budgets. We use an input-output approach based on the Finnish ENVIMAT model. The average carbon footprint at the UBI level is 4.8 tCO 2 -eq and it focuses on necessities. It's significantly lower than the average carbon footprint in Finland, 9.4 tCO 2 -eq, but still far from the level compatible with the current climate change mitigation targets. The results emphasize how challenging it is to find true low-carbon solutions for living in affluent countries. Lifestyle changes and technological leaps need to be combined and fostered by legislation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Creating an analytical framework of intermediating transitions in the policy cycle. • Analyses intermediation in 2 building energy efficiency policy processes in Finland. • Advocating visions and influencing policy options part of intermediating to policy. • Policy translation and training as vital intermediation functions in implementation. • Intermediation deterring policy change contains inaction, disinterest or deceit. The roles of intermediaries in sustainability transitions are increasingly recognised. How intermediaries advance transitions vis-a-vis public policy has, however, received little attention. Thus, we create an analytical framework of intermediating policy processes, drawing from transition and policy cycle literatures. We apply this to investigate two policy processes pertaining to Finland's building energy efficiency. The findings show how the central role of the Ministry of the Environment and high political attention have reduced the need for intermediation by external organisations in agenda setting and policy formulation. However, intermediaries external to the Ministry have been vital in facilitating policy implementation. The cases show that facilitating training as an intermediary activity can be undertaken by different organisations, such as a trade union, a government agency or an education committee. Based on our analysis, we argue that, when political attention on transitions is low, the need for intermediary action is likely to be higher. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forests and forest industries can contribute to climate change mitigation by sequestering carbon from the atmosphere, by storing it in biomass, and by fabricating products that substitute more greenhouse gas emission intensive materials and energy. The objectives of the study are to specify alternative scenarios for the diversification of wood product markets and to determine how an increasingly diversified market structure could impact the net carbon emissions (NCEs) of forestry in Finland. The NCEs of the Finnish forest sector were modelled for the period 2016–2056 by using a forest management simulation and optimization model for the standing forests and soil and separate models for product carbon storage and substitution impacts. The annual harvest was fixed at approximately 70 Mm3, which was close to the level of roundwood removals for industry and energy in 2016. The results show that the substitution benefits for a reference scenario with the 2016 market structure account for 9.6 Mt C (35.2 Mt CO2 equivalent [CO2 eq]) in 2056, which could be further increased by 7.1 Mt C (26 Mt CO2 eq) by altering the market structure. As a key outcome, increasing the use of by‐products for textiles and wood–plastic composites in place of kraft pulp and biofuel implies greater overall substitution credits compared to increasing the level of log harvest for construction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the last couple of decades, many peer-reviewed publications focused on the bioeconomy, which it is frequently argued to be a key part of the solution to global challenges (climate change, ecosystem degradation). This study investigates the scientific literature on forest bioeconomy by applying a social network analysis to the bibliometric science. The bibliometric network analysis was performed over the time-frame of 2003-2020 to provide an overview on the main aspects characterising the forest bioeconomy issue. The results show that 225 documents on forest bioeconomy were published by 567 organisations from 44 countries. Finland and Canada are the two most productive countries with 32.8% and 12.7% of forest bioeconomy documents respectively. The co-occurrence network map of the keywords shows that the forest bioeconomy is related to three main concepts: sustainable development, bioenergy production, climate change mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We studied how different thinning regimes and initial age structures of a Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) forest landscape affect the radiative forcing of forest biomass production and use. We considered the effects of forest carbon sequestration, substitution of materials and fossil fuels with forest biomass, and timber use efficiency. The initial age structures of our hypothetical forest landscapes in the middle boreal zone in Finland were young, middle-aged, and mature. Forest landscapes were thinned using either the current thinning recommendations (baseline) or maintaining 20% higher or 20% lower stocking over the 80-year study period. We employed forest ecosystem model simulations together with a life cycle assessment tool. The highest carbon sequestration was obtained by maintaining higher stocking in the landscapes. The initially middle-aged and mature age structures resulted in the strongest cooling of the climate in the first three decades of the simulation, but the highest cooling was found in the young age structure. However, radiative forcing was less sensitive to the thinning than to the substitution or timber use efficiency. Our results indicate that modeled climate impacts are affected by both initial age structure and forest management, which should be considered when generalizing the climate change mitigation potential of forests and forestry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article, we argue that the science--policy interface can be understood as a discourse network constituted by discursive interaction between scientific organizations and other actors that both use scientific arguments in conjunction with other policy arguments. We use discourse network analysis to investigate the climate change policy process in Finland between 2002 and 2015, focusing on the role of and relationships between scientific actors and arguments in the discourse networks. Our data consist of policy actors' written testimonies on two law proposals, the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol (2002) and the enactment of the Finnish Climate Law (2015). Our results show that two competing discourse coalitions have influenced the development of climate change policy in the 2000s. In 2002, the dominant coalition was economic, prioritizing economic growth over climate change mitigation. In 2015, the climate coalition that argued for ambitious mitigation measures became dominant. The majority of scientific actors were part of the dominant economy coalition in 2002 and part of the dominant ecology coalition in 2015. The centrality of scientific arguments increased over time, and both discourse coalitions used them progressively more. These developments reflect the increasingly central position of science in Finnish climate policymaking. We contribute to the literature on the science--policy interface by operationalizing the interface as a set of connections in a discourse network and by showing how the analysis of discourse networks and their properties can help us understand the shifts in the role of science in policymaking over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A displacement factor (DF) may be used to describe the efficiency of using wood-based products or fuels instead of fossil-based ones to reduce net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, the DFs of individual products and their production volumes could not be used alone to evaluate the climate impacts of forest utilization. For this reason, in this study we have developed a methodology to assess a required displacement factor (RDF) for all wood products and bioenergy manufactured and harvested in a certain country in order to achieve zero CO 2 equivalent emissions from increased forest utilization over time in comparison with a selected baseline harvesting scenario. Input data for calculations were produced with the simulation model, Monsu, capable of predicting the carbon stocks of forests and wood-based products. We tested the calculations in Finnish conditions in a 100-year time horizon and estimated the current average DF of manufactured wood-based products and fuels in Finland for the interpretation of RDF results. The results showed that if domestic wood harvesting will be increased by 17–33% compared to the basic scenario, the RDF will be 2.0 to 2.4 tC tC−1 for increased wood use in 2017–2116. However, the estimated average DF of manufactured wood-based products and fuels currently in Finland was less than 1.1 tC tC−1. The results indicate strongly that the increased harvesting intensity from the current situation would represent a challenge for the Finnish forest-based bioeconomy from the viewpoint of climate change mitigation. For this reason, there is an immediate need to improve reliability and applicability of the RDF approach by repeating corresponding calculations in different circumstances and by improving estimations of DF s on country levels. • Displacement factor (DF) describes the substitution climate impact of wood use. • We estimated required displacement factor (RDF) to achieve zero emissions. • RDF should be 2.0–2.4 tC tC−1 for increased wood use in 2017–2116 in Finland. • RDF appears greater than the estimated current average DF. • This is a threat for forest-based bioeconomy from the climate change viewpoint. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Currently, the economic performance of rooftop photovoltaics (PVs) is predominantly evaluated using the levelized cost of electricity approach. Some researchers have argued that rooftop PVs should be viewed as an investment, where performance is evaluated using relevant investment analysis methods. This article argues that the proper economic value and climate mitigation potential of rooftop PVs can be assessed only if the market mechanisms and characteristics of the underlying building stock are understood better. This paper utilises a customer-driven investment model to examine the feasible market potential of rooftop PVs in an urban environment. The economic returns of PV installations are calculated for 89,000 buildings separately and by comparing them to the underlying spatial property returns, the profitability and adoption years of rooftop PVs for in different locations are estimated. Implications for CO2 emissions and the impact of the net metering (NM) policy on the rate of adoption are calculated. The results imply that even in Finland rooftop solar PVs are already profitable for a third of the residential building stock and will be profitable for a fourth of the commercial building stock by 2025. Finally, the NM could increase substantially the diffusion rate of solar PVs in the coming years. Highlights • Real estate economics provides a new perspective to estimate the diffusion of rooftop PVs. • In the Helsinki Metropolitan Area, rooftop PVs are already profitable for a third of the residential building stock. • A fourth of the commercial building stock will be profitable by 2025. • Net metering (NM) could increase the diffusion of rooftop PVs rapidly. • The benefits of implementing NM seem to outweigh the costs of implementation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • All year climate change impact in an urban catchment is evaluated using SWMM. • Average annual runoff and seasonal extreme flows are expected to increase. • An overall increase in the number of flow events is modelled, notably in winter. • A holistic stormwater management is needed to mitigate and adapt to climate change. • The benefit of using convection-permitting climate models is evident. Urbanization coupled with climate change is expected to put pressure on the urban stormwater network. To predict and mitigate the effects of these trends, accurate modeling of urban stormwater changes is required at scales and resolutions meaningful to stormwater management. Although numerous studies have analyzed the effect of climate change on urban flooding risk using the event-based approach, none have incorporated the continuous modelling approach to investigate the whole spectrum of changes in an urban catchment. This study analyzes seasonal changes in future urban hydrological behavior using a mini-ensemble of six state-of-the-art climate model projections and a calibrated hydrological-hydraulic Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). The modelling results show future changes in seasonal and monthly hydrological behavior. The notable winter warming is the major driver in the future snow processes, resulting in considerably less snow days and an increase in the flow events frequency during the winter months. The modelling results also suggest an increase in the annual maximum hourly flow in all seasons, with the clearest trend modelled in winter. Monthly average runoff during the cold period is modelled to increase, while no clear trends are detected for the rest of the year. There is a clear added benefit in using convection-permitting regional climate models throughout the year. Overall, the climate change mitigation and adaption strategies in urban catchments should focus more on the whole spectrum of changes rather than only on urban pluvial flooding risk. These findings call for a transition from traditional to a more advanced stormwater management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cropland soil organic carbon (SOC) stock can be increased by agricultural management, but is subject to various factors. The extent and rates of SOC sequestration potential, as well as the controlling factors, under different climate and management practices across a region or country are important for policy-makers and land managers, however have been rarely known. We aim to investigate the extent and rates of SOC sequestration potential over 2021–2040 under different scenarios of climate change and Sustainable Soil Management (SSM) practices, and quantify the impacts of climate change and SSM practices on the SOC sequestration potential, for croplands across Finland at a spatial resolution of 1 km. RothC model is run iteratively to equilibrium to calculate the size of the SOC pools and the annual plant carbon inputs. Then, it is applied to investigate the SOC sequestration potential over 2021–2040 under different scenarios of climate change and SSM practices. Finally, facorial simulation experiments are conducted to quantify the impacts of climate change and SSM practices, alone and in combination, on SOC sequestration potential. Under the combined impacts of climate change and SSM practices, the SOC sequestration potential during 2021–2040 relative to 2020 will be on average − 0.03, 0.007, 0.05, and 0.13 t C ha−1 yr−1, respectively, with carbon input being business as usual, 5%, 10%, and 20% increase. This is equivalent to an annual change rate of −0.04%, 0.009%, 0.07%, and 0.17%, respectively. Therefore, a 20% increase in C input to soil will not be enough to obtain a 4‰ increase per year over the 20-year period in Finland. Carbon input will promote SOC sequestration potential; however, climate change will reduce it on average by 0.28 t C ha−1 yr−1. Across the cropland in Finland, on average, the relative contributions of C input, temperature, and precipitation to SOC sequestration potential in 2021–2040 will be 56%, 24%, and 20%, respectively, however there is a spatially explicit pattern. The SOC sequestration potential will be relatively high and dominated by C input in west and southwest Finland. By contrast, it will be relatively low and dominated by climate in north and east Finland, and the central part of southern Finland. Our findings provide the information as to where, how much, and which SSM practices could be applied for enhancing SOC sequestration at a high spatial resolution, which is essential for stakeholders to increase cropland SOC sequestration efficiently. • IPCC tier 3 approach was applied to quantify cropland SOC sequestration potential. • 20% increase in C input would not be enough to meet the 4‰ target over 2021–2040. • Climate change would reduce SOC sequestration on average by 0.28 t C ha−1 yr−1. • 20% additional C input is not enough to compensate climate change impact on SOC. • Contribution of C input, temperature, precipitation to SOC sequestration is 56%, 24%, and 20%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Driven by climate change mitigation, EU countries are committed to improve energy efficiency of their building stock by implementing the energy performance of buildings directive (EPBD). Should higher energy efficiency result in better indoor environmental quality (IEQ), this policy could also be seen as an opportunity to improve public health across Europe.Objectives: This paper focuses on the assessment of the effects of energy retrofits on occupant satisfaction with IEQ and health in multifamily buildings.Methods: Data on occupant satisfaction with IEQ and health were collected from the occupants of 39 Finnish and 15 Lithuanian multifamily buildings (an average of five apartments per building, one adult per apartment) both before and after energy retrofits (such as improving thermal insulation, windows, heating and/or ventilation systems). Parallel to the data collected from the occupants, data on several IEQ parameters, including temperature, temperature factor, and air change rate, were collected from their apartments. Moreover, data from seven Finnish and five Lithuanian non-retrofitted control buildings were collected according to the same protocol.Results: Occupant satisfaction regarding indoor temperature was associated with both retrofit status (OR 5.3, 95% CI 2.6-11.0) and measured IEQ parameters (indoor temperature OR 1.4 per 1 °C increase, temperature factor OR 1.1 per 1% increase, and air change rate OR 5.6 per 1/h increase). Additional positive associations were found between retrofit status and occupants reporting absence of upper respiratory symptoms (OR 1.8, 95% CI 1.1-2.9) as well as not missing work or school due to respiratory infections (OR 4.1, 95% CI 1.2-13.8), however, these associations were independent of the measured IEQ parameters.Conclusions: There seems to be a strong subjective component related to the observed changes in occupant satisfaction with IEQ and health as a result of energy retrofitting in buildings. Further studies are needed to verify the actual mechanisms, as well as possible long term effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents forest research news briefs. Celebration of 100th anniversary of Finland and Finnish forest research, and includes need for knowledge and timber, and information on acid rain and demand for energy. Meeting of Nordic Co-operation Group for Forest Inventory to be held in Denmark on August 2018 for discussing future forest resource availability, and role of forests in climate change mitigation. Celebration of 100th anniversary of Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation.

Wood use is expanding to new markets, driven by the need to substitute fossil-intensive products and energy. Wood products can contribute to climate change mitigation, if they have a lower fossil footprint than alternative products serving the same function. However, the climate change mitigation potential is contingent on the net fossil and biogenic emissions over time, as well as the realism of the counterfactual scenario and market assumptions. This study aims to improve the consistency of assessing the avoided fossil emissions attributed to changes in wood use, and to estimate the additional mitigation potential of increased wood use in construction and textile markets based on wood harvested in Finland. The results show that, compared to baseline, an increase in the market share of wood leads to an increase in atmospheric CO 2 concentration by 2050. Thus, the substitution impacts of wood use are not large enough to compensate for the reduction in forest carbon sinks in the short and medium term. This outcome is further aggravated, considering the decarbonization of the energy sector driven by the Paris Agreement, which lowers the fossil emissions of competing sectors more than those of the forest sector. The expected decarbonization is a highly desirable trend, but it will further lengthen the carbon parity period associated with an increase in wood harvest. This creates a strong motive to pursue shifts in wood uses instead of merely expanding all wood uses. [Display omitted] • Increase in wood use for construction or textiles increases net emissions by 2050 • Substitution impacts will fall remarkably by 2050 due to decarbonization • Results motivate shifts in wood uses as opposed to expanding all wood uses • Substitution assumptions remain oversimplified which causes great uncertainty [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fundamental knowledge on the determinants of air temperatures across spatial and temporal scales is essential in climate change mitigation and adaptation. Spatial-based statistical modelling provides an efficient approach for the analysis and prediction of air temperatures in human-modified environments at high spatial accuracy. The aim of the study was firstly, to analyse the environmental factors affecting extreme air temperature conditions in a coastal high-latitude city and secondly, to explore the applicability of generalized additive model (GAM) in the study of urban–rural temperatures. We utilized air temperature data from 50 permanent temperature logger stations and extensive geospatial environmental data on different scales from Turku, SW Finland. We selected five temperature situations (cases) and altogether 12 urban and natural explanatory variables for the analyses. The results displayed that (i) water bodies and topographical conditions were often more important than urban variables in controlling the spatial variability of extreme air temperatures, (ii) case specificity of the explanatory variables and their scales should be considered in the analyses and (iii) GAM was highly suitable in quantifying and visualizing the relations between urban–rural temperatures and environmental determinants at local scales. The results promote the use of GAMs in spatial-based statistical modelling of air temperature in future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is a complex and wicked problem, which needs to be addressed through relevant climate change education. However, the preconditions for combatting climate change differ in different parts of the world, depending on physical, cultural and social circumstances. The diversity of circumstances also influences the implementation of climate change in education. Therefore, in this article we have chosen to examine climate change education (CCE) based on an interview study in two distinct school contexts. More specifically, the cases aim to explore Finnish and Tanzanian primary students' views on climate change. A hermeneutical approach guided the analysis, and a significant result was that most of the students understood the severity of climate change. Nevertheless, some misconceptions regarding both causes, consequences and mitigation of climate change were also obvious. In addition, the analysis revealed interesting variations in the students' reasoning, which relate to their different contexts. Unquestionably, the sample size in this study is limited, and further research is needed for a more detailed picture of Finnish and Tanzanian students' views. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A rare, large national sample collected in Finland in 2019 was used as data. • All indexes of climate anxiety and hope correlated positively with climate action. • Climate anxiety and climate hope were strongly intercorrelated. • Both climate anxiety and climate hope had unique effects on climate action. • Supports seeing anxiety and hope as intertwined, adaptive feelings. Climate anxiety is a phenomenon which raises growing attention. Based on a national survey of climate-related feelings and behaviors (N = 2070) in Finland, we analyzed and discussed the concept of climate anxiety and its relationship with hope and action. We found that all our measures for climate anxiety (including worry and some stronger manifestations of anxiety) and hope (including efficacy beliefs) correlated positively with each other and climate action. Furthermore, climate anxiety and hope explained unique parts of variance in self-reported climate action. We propose that, in line with the Extended Parallel Process model (EPPM) that was used as a framework, the interplay of emotions needs to be considered when studying and explaining their effect on climate action. In conclusion, the results provide support for seeing climate anxiety and hope as intertwined and adaptive feelings, which could be needed to motivate humankind in finding solutions to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We report on preparatory work to develop a virtual laboratory for ecosystem services, ESLab, and demonstrate its pilot application in southern Finland. The themes included in the pilot are related to biodiversity conservation, climate mitigation and eutrophication mitigation. ESLab is a research environment for ecosystem services (ES), which considers ES indicators at different landscape scales: habitats, catchments and municipalities and shares the results by a service that utilizes machine readable interfaces. The study area of the pilot application is situated in the boreal region of southern Finland and covers 14 municipalities and ten catchments including forested, agricultural and nature conservation areas. We present case studies including: present carbon budgets of natural ecosystems; future carbon budgets with and without the removal of harvest residues for bioenergy production; and total phosphorus and nitrogen future loads under climate and agricultural yield and price scenarios. The ESLab allows researchers to present and share the results as visual maps, statistics and graphs. Our further aim is to provide a toolbox of easily accessible virtual services for ES researchers, to illustrate the comprehensive societal consequences of multiple decisions (e.g. concerning land use, fertilisation or harvesting) in a changing environment (climate, deposition). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The EU's energy sector depends heavily on fossil fuels, which contribute to climate change. This is why climate mitigation targets for energy production have been set, including an increased biomass use requirement. In Finland, biomass is commonly utilised but its capital, Helsinki, is still dependent on fossil fuels. With the ambition of becoming climate neutral by 2050, Helsinki is testing, inter alia, low-share wood pellet and coal co-combustion in a CHP (combined heat and power) plant. The objectives of this paper were to assess the net environmental impacts of the co-combustion and changes in urban air quality connected to pellet transport, and to identify environmental hotspots relevant to possible future higher-share co-combustion. The applied methods were screening LCA (life cycle assessment) and fine particle dispersion modelling. The results prove that low-share wood pellet co-combustion in CHP production leads to net environmental impact reductions and does not deteriorate air quality in the urban environment. If higher-share co-combustion were to be implemented, the environmental hotspots to focus on would be the operational issues of a power plant and the origin and sustainability aspects of wood pellet production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A harmful impact of climate change and global warming has concerned various sectors of the international community. Numerous energy policies aiming at climate change mitigation have been implemented on a national and global scale. Renewable energy technologies (RETs) play a critical role in enhancing sustainable solutions that significantly limit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Such innovative technologies can facilitate energy transition through providing, e.g., energy security, sustainable development, and effective usage of indigenous resources. However, the commercialization of RETs is extremely challenging. The barriers can be of a different nature, although this study focused on socioeconomic and regulatory issues. There is ample evidence that energy policies play a central role in supporting adoption of renewables. It is also claimed that RETs require the whole ecosystem to support their successful diffusion. In this study, we explored multifarious barriers for widespread RET diffusion in two European Union countries, Finland and Poland, indicating the most common barriers existing in the literature as well as analyzing major bottlenecks from the viewpoint of renewable energy companies' executives. We also present statistics of the most commonly used RETs in these countries in order to express the diffusion issues more appropriately. The research shows that inflexible, ineffective, and excessive regulatory frameworks; limited financing options; as well as an insufficient level of societal awareness have been seen as the main bottlenecks for RET diffusion in both countries. The outcomes of this study provide useful insights for the researchers in the energy transition field as well as practical managerial and regulatory implications aimed at overcoming these challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • The grassland extensification can reduce future soil carbon emission by ∼ 1 ‰ thus below proposed Paris 4‰ initiative. • The afforestation could offset CO 2 emissions at a maximum rate ∼ 2 Mg C ha−1 y-1 only after 30 years delay. • Offsetting average person CO 2 emissions, 10300 kg year -1, requires afforestation of 1.4 ha by spruce. • Land use change of agricultural soils cannot play major role in Finland's ambitious goal of being carbon neutral by 2035. Offsetting nation-wide CO 2 emissions by carbon sinks from land use change (LUC), e.g. agricultural fields extensification and afforestation, is considered as a major climate change mitigation option. We evaluated the LUC potential for reducing emissions and creating annual soil and ecosystem carbon sinks in Finland. We used agricultural statistics, the forest growth model MOTTI, the soil carbon model Yasso07, and the RCP8.5 climate scenario. The soil carbon stock (SOC) of extensified grasslands showed on average less carbon loss than cropland, thus reducing future carbon emissions by LUC between 0.17 Mg ha−1 y-1, initially, and 0.08 Mg ha−1 y-1 after 50 years. The annual rate of such carbon gain was in comparison to SOC between 1.4‰ and 0.7‰ which is lower than proposed by the Paris 4‰ initiative for offsetting global anthropogenic CO 2 emissions. Furthermore, after afforestation, estimated SOC is expected to increase above pre-LUC levels with 30 years lag. Estimated SOC sink from afforestation when compared to continuous cultivation varied depending on dominant tree species and soil fertility from between 0.19 Mg ha−1 y-1 (1.7‰ for spruce in medium fertile soil) to 0.46 Mg ha−1 y-1 (3.7‰ for silver birch in highly fertile soil). Future total soil and biomass carbon sink attributed to afforestation ranged between 1.65 and 2.44 Mg ha−1 y-1. Combined carbon sinks created by the present LUC could with 30 years lag offset annually between 0.01 and 4% of the present national net CO 2 emissions in Finland. The long delay and a small scale of potential future carbon emission reduction by the LUC highlighted the importance of employing additional tools to reach the national neutrality targets due in next 15 or 30 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Wood-based substitution benefits are likely to decrease over time • Carbon residence has more importance in the future as an indicator • Energy use of wood should be reduced to increase climate benefits • Global agreement is needed to fund clean technologies and reduce fossil ones To obtain net climate benefits from intensified forest utilization in the short-term, the substitution impact of wood harvesting and increased carbon stocks of wood-based products should be higher than the forest carbon stock loss. However, the product specific substitution impacts change dynamically over time along with technological development, and long-term climate change mitigation strategies need to consider this, as well as the market forces. We identified future pathways enabling globally market viable environments for wood utilization scenarios in Finland resulting in net climate benefits in 2050. We I) indicated substitution impacts in 2050 applying future-oriented parameter modification based on LCA, and developed quantitative target scenarios by altering wood-based product portfolios to achieve required substitution, and II) identified pathways enabling scenarios by applying participatory backcasting. In the scenarios, a major shift from primary energy use to high added-value products including textiles, chemicals, composites and advanced biofuels, or long-lifetime construction products was needed and more lifecycles for wood products by recycling were required. The actions enabling market viable environment focused on the global level policies and consumer perceptions, while actions locally were limited and current production technology development oriented. We recommend multi-target backcasting together with LCA to analyse more synergies and trade-offs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sweden and Finland have national goals to reach net negative greenhouse gas emissions before mid-century. Achieving these ambitious goals could employ negative emission technologies, such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, but it is unclear how this technology could be realized in an energy transition. Sweden and Finland stand out for having a large share of substantial point source emissions of biogenic carbon dioxide, in the production of pulp, heat and power. In the European Pollutant Release and Transfer Register, Sweden and Finland reported 64% and 51% biogenic emissions, respectively, in facilities emitting over 100 kt of carbon dioxide in 2017, while the corresponding collective figure for all European states in the database is 6%. This qualitative study highlights company actors' perspectives on bioenergy with carbon capture and storage within a Nordic regional context and explores their perspective on emerging tensions in the energy transition. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 20 of the 24 companies with the largest point sources of biogenic emissions. The results are framed around four emerging tensions regarding bioenergy with carbon capture and storage from companies' perspectives in this study: (1) absence of reliable long-term policies; (2) limits to companies' climate change responsibility; (3) technical trade-offs of carbon capture; and (4) lack of customer demands for negative emissions. According to most of the companies, it is technically feasible to capture carbon dioxide, but it could be a challenge to determine who is responsible to create a financially viable business case, to enact supporting policies, and to build transport and storage infrastructure. Company representatives argue that they already contribute to a sustainable society, therefore bioenergy with carbon capture and storage is not their priority without government collaboration. However, they are willing to contribute more and could have an increasing role towards an energy transition in an international context. • BECCS discussions are on the horizon, but few companies are first movers. • Large-scale deployment of BECCS would require political and financial support. • Swedish and Finnish companies lack customer demand for negative emissions. • There are trade-offs between energy efficiency and carbon capture. • Companies consider BECCS as one of many climate change mitigation measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We introduce a multistep modeling approach for studying optimal management of fertilizer inputs in a situation where soil nitrogen and carbon dynamics and water and atmosphere externalities are considered. The three steps in the modeling process are: (1) generation of the data sets with a detailed simulation model; (2) estimation of the system models from the data; (3) application of the obtained dynamic economic optimization model considering inorganic and organic fertilizer inputs. We demonstrate the approach with a case study: barley production in southern Finland on coarse and clay soils. Our results show that there is a synergy between climate change mitigation and water protection goals, and a trade-off between pollution mitigation and crop production goals. If a field is a significant source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and an insignificant source of water pollution, atmospheric externalities dominate the water externalities, even for a relatively low social cost of carbon (SCC). If a field is a significant source of water pollution, the SCC would have to be very high before atmospheric externalities dominate water externalities. In addition, an integrated nutrient management system appears better than a system in which only inorganic or organic fertilizer is used, although manure is not a solution to agriculture's GHG emissions problem. Moreover, GHG emissions and nitrogen and carbon leaching mitigation efforts should first be targeted at coarse soils rather than clay soils, because the marginal abatement costs are considerably lower for coarse soils. • Economic study including N and C soil dynamics and water and climate externalities. • We constructed large systems of models from simulated data for economic optimization. • Water externalities must be considered in parallel to atmospheric externalities. • There is a synergy between climate change mitigation and water protection goals. • The marginal abatement costs are lower for coarse soils than for clay soils. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Most effective measures are associated to the reduction of deforestation. • Most effective policy instrument would be a fee for deforestation. • Experts emphasized efficiency and legitimacy of policy instruments. • More attention should be paid to the vertical coherence of policy instruments. The land use sector offers government the means to contribute to the achievement of climate change mitigation targets. The aim of this study was to identify the most important policy instruments for supporting climate change mitigation efforts in the land-use sector in Finland and increase understanding on the performance of these instruments. This was done by analysing experts' views on the most effective policy instruments related to climate change mitigation in agricultural and urban land use in Finland and identifying the criteria that experts use when evaluating these instruments. The experts' views were obtained by interviews, a workshop and a survey, and the results were qualitatively and quantitatively analysed. The experts emphasized the effectiveness of economic policy instruments in the promotion of practical measures for climate change mitigation. According to the experts, the most effective policy instrument for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the land use sector would be a fee for deforestation. However, based on the analyses using four other evaluation criteria (efficiency, legality, democracy, legitimacy), economic policy instruments imply greater challenges than regulatory or informational policy instruments. Furthermore, based on the results, the coherence of economic policy instruments, i.e. to what extent they have synergies in achieving different policy objectives, needs to be carefully examined in the planning phase. In particular, more attention should be paid to the analysis of relationship across different scales of governance when designing new policy instruments for climate change mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Peatlands provide habitats for many species and a variety of ecosystem services worldwide. In this study we used an integrated biophysical-economic modeling approach with multi-objective optimization to investigate how alternative land-use and land-management (LULM) options jointly affect economic returns from marketed (timber, energy peat, restoration costs) and non-marketed public goods (water quality, GHG emissions, biodiversity) in a typical landscape dominated by peatlands in northern Finland. We considered several LULM options including no action (the current state will continue), bioenergy wood harvesting, intensive forest management, restoration, and energy peat extraction with three after use options (no after use, reforestation, rewetting). Our study revealed strong tradeoffs between biodiversity and ecosystem services in drained peatlands. Optimal LULM depended strongly on the chosen objectives, i.e. whether marketed or non-marketed goods were preferred. For example, when the objective was carbon neutral land-use, the no action option was mostly chosen, while bioenergy wood harvesting was mostly chosen when the objective was to provide economic and environmental benefits at the same time. The strong tradeoff between biodiversity and ecosystem services indicates that compromises are unavoidable in order to obtain a multi-functional landscape which provides biodiversity conservation, climate change mitigation and water protection in a cost-effective manner. • Selection of alternative land-management options for peatlands was analyzed. • The cost-impact analysis utilized multi-objective optimization. • The variables were the NPV, biodiversity, climate impact, and water emissions. • A small decrease in the NPV resulted in a clear increase in environmental benefits. • Optimal land-management depended strongly on the chosen objectives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Influential actors in Finland prioritize economic competitiveness over climate change mitigation. • These actors do not actively seek media visibility or directly attack the validity of climate science. • Their influence on climate policy is based on other means, such as inside lobbying. • Opponents of climate change mitigation can be powerful despite a weak media presence. The lack of ambitious climate change policies in large anglophone countries, such as the United States, has been explained by the strong media presence of denialist arguments against climate science. Such counterarguments are less visible in the news media of most European countries. Why do many of these countries nevertheless fail to enact ambitious climate change policies? This paper suggests that influential organizations may block ambitious climate change policies in corporatist countries without an extensive media strategy or a strong denialist message. We draw from theories on the policy process, policy networks, influence strategies, and comparative politics to formulate hypotheses about the existence, influence, and strategies of organizations that oppose ambitious climate policy. We test these hypotheses using an original combination of media data and survey data on the national climate policy network in Finland, a corporatist European country that has long lacked ambitious climate policies. The findings show that a coalition that prioritizes economic competitiveness over climate change mitigation is influential and occupies a central position in the policy network. This pro-economy lobby does not question the validity of climate science or actively seek media visibility. Rather, it influences the policy process using other strategies, such as inside lobbying, and appears in the news media less often than other climate policy organizations. Our results suggest that opponents of climate change mitigation can be powerful despite a weak media presence. This implies that studies on climate politics should pay more attention to strategies of influencing beyond the media spotlight. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Finland has adopted a high profile in climate change mitigation. A national target of achieving carbon neutrality by 2035 has been declared. As a part of this, the use of coal for energy purposes has been banned from May 2029 onwards. The Nordic electricity market was a world fore-runner in creating a liberalized, multi-national electricity market in the 1990s. At present, the electricity systems of Finland, Sweden, and Norway are already very low-carbon. The Baltic countries Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania joined the Nordic market about a decade ago. Estonian electricity production is the most carbon-intensive of all the EU countries due to the extensive use of domestic oil shale. Especially Lithuania still suffers from capacity deficit created by the closure of the Soviet time nuclear reactor Ignalina in Lithuania. This paper presents the ambitions of the EU and national level energy and climate policies and models the multi-national impacts of Finland's forthcoming closure of coal-fired generation. We also take into account Sweden's planned decrease in nuclear generation. We find that these national-level policies have an impact on the Baltic countries as reduced import possibilities and increasing electricity prices, and the expected rise of the EU CO2 allowance prices amplifies these. We further find that the abandonment of coal and nuclear power plants increases the net import and increases CO2 emissions in neighboring regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forest characteristics vary largely at regional level and also on smaller geographic areas in Finland. The amount of greenhouse gas emissions is related to changes in biomass and for example to the soil type (e.g. upland soils vs. peatlands). Forest characteristics affects on forest management practices and on how vulnerable single stands are for disturbances. Hence, spatially accurate maps are needed for forest management planning. By means of map data we are able to consider where and which kind of operations in the forests are the most beneficial, e.g., in terms of climate change mitigation. In our study estimating and explaining spatial patterns across Finland is the main interest. For this we have analysed biomass changes on different soil and site types on forest land. The Finnish Multi-Source National Forest Inventory (MS-NFI) provide multi-temporal thematic raster layers for the whole country on large number of forest variables at pixel resolution of 16 m, e.g., timber volume and biomasses by tree species, land use class, site type (http://kartta.luke.fi/index-en.html). MS-NFI data is based satellite images (Landsat 5 TM/7 ETM+/8 OLI, Sentinel 2A-MSI, IRS P6, ALOS AVNIR-2), digital maps and NFI field data. We used MS-NFI layers from two time points to investigate the spatial variation of biomass. Silvicultural management and treatment units larger than individual pixels were created by automatic segmentation of the thematic forest maps. The segmentation of thematic maps was carried out using a modified implementation of the 'segmentation with directed trees' algorithm, which employs the local edge gradient for recognizing potential segment borders. This operation was done to decrease large random errors related to single pixel observations. We have produced segmented biomass maps and biomass change maps for the whole country. The biomass maps were evaluated with available data on forest resources, growth and drains, e.g., applying statistics on forestry or forest inventory data. The findings will be discussed in the paper including the spatial evaluation of carbon stock changes. According to previous studies the accuracy of biomass variables is relatively high and close to those on timber volumes. Distribution on forest site types according to thematic maps and field data is also analysed in the study due to it has effects to the emissions from soil. The reasons for the observed biomass changes will be studied and discussed. Decline in biomass are usually caused by timber harvesting, but also due to wind storms or deforestation. The maps on biomass provide useful tool for forest owners to analyse carbon stock changes in their forests and how to affect the amount of carbon by forest management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]