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The prevalence of dyslexia identification has increased significantly over the last two decades. Yet there is debate over whether there are distinct biological and cognitive differences between those with literacy difficulties and the subgroup of people identified as dyslexic. This is the first paper that provides evidence for this ongoing debate by investigating the socio-demographic factors, outside biology and cognition, that predict whether a child is identified as dyslexic in the UK. Using secondary data from the UK's Millennium Cohort Study, this paper examines the socio-demographic factors that predict whether a child's teacher identifies them as dyslexic at age 11. Gender, season of birth, socio-economic class and parental income are found to be significant predictors of the dyslexia label. Therefore, factors seemingly unrelated to the clinical aspects of dyslexia influence whether a child is identified as dyslexic in England and Wales. This suggests that label may not be evenly distributed across a population; furthermore, it may also indicate that resources for support may not be fairly allocated. The findings further support the argument that a 'dyslexic sub-group' within poor readers is created due to the impact of environmental factors. The results from this national-scale study thus questions the reliability, validity and moral integrity of the allocation of the dyslexia label across current education systems in the UK. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to its progressive nature, dementia is now the leading cause of death in England and Wales, so a palliative approach to care is beneficial because of its emphasis on supportive care. Many people with dementia also have other comorbid health conditions common in older age, that in themselves may induce pain. However, people with dementia may have difficulty in understanding what they are feeling and in describing and locating the pain due to having issues with communicating their needs as their dementia progresses. This paper considers the recognition, assessment, treatment and management of pain in older people with dementia. It introduces the learner to what is known about the subject and why it is important to know the person's past history and previous ways of self-managing pain and discomfort using information gained from their family, carers and friends. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background There is an urgent need to address high levels of work-related violence (WRV) in Britain to improve the workplace experience of both employers and employees. Aims This study specifically explores prevalence rates of work-related violence assaults (WRVAs) for staff at high risk that have supervisor responsibilities and work full-time. Methods Five years of data were used for analysis from the Crime Survey of England and Wales (CSEW). Data were filtered for victims of crime from a working population in Britain. Results Forty-four per cent of respondents who are supervisors and have full-time jobs report that they had been victims of WRVAs. This figure is higher than other previous studies of WRV. Conclusions The current study provides further alternative evidence to support high prevalence rates of WRV by selecting for analysis specific work characteristics data that are strongly associated with WRV (supervisor responsibilities and full-time work). It is therefore recommended that future work explores different means of intervention for organizations to implement within the workplace to reduce WRV and protect workers from harm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: Dogs are considered property under U.K. law, while owners generally regard their canine companions as family. Reports that the number of stolen dogs in England and Wales rose from 1788 in 2016 to 1909 in 2017 led to public calls to change the law. Recognising that a more robust analysis of dog theft crime statistics is required, we gathered dog theft data for 2015, 2016, and 2017 from 41 of 44 police forces. This paper examines how dog theft crime statistics are constructed, assesses the strengths and weaknesses of these data, and categorises, maps, and measures dog theft changes temporally per police force in England and Wales. Our findings reveal there has been an increase in dog theft crimes, with 1559 thefts in 2015, 1653 in 2016 (+6.03%), and 1842 in 2017 (+11.43%), and a decrease in court charges related to dog theft crimes, with 64 (3.97%) in 2015, 51 (3.08%) in 2016, and 39 (2.11%) in 2017. The actual number of dog theft crimes will be higher as three forces could not supply useable data. There is a need for a qualitative study to understand dog theft crime in different parts of the country, and a standardised approach to recording dog theft by all police forces in England and Wales. We recommend classifying dog theft (or pet theft more generally) as a crime in itself under the Sentencing Guidelines associated with the Theft Act 1968. Dogs are considered property under U.K. law, while current discourses of pet ownership place canine companions as part of an extended family. This means sentences for those who steal dogs are not reflective of a dogs' sentience and agency, rather in line with charges for those who steal a laptop or wallet. This is particularly problematic as dog theft is currently on the rise in England and Wales, leading to public calls to change the law. Recognising that a more robust analysis of dog theft crime statistics is required, we gathered dog theft data for 2015, 2016, and 2017 from 41 of 44 police forces through Freedom of Information (FOI) requests. This paper uses these data to examine how dog theft crime statistics are constructed, assesses the strengths and weaknesses of these data, and categorises, maps, and measures dog theft changes temporally per police force in England and Wales. Our findings reveal there has been an increase in dog theft crimes, with 1559 in 2015, 1653 in 2016 (+6.03%), and 1842 in 2017 (+11.43%), and a decrease in court charges related to dog theft crimes, with 64 (3.97%) in 2015, 51 (3.08%) in 2016, and 39 (2.11%) in 2017. There were police force inconsistencies in recording dog theft crime, which meant some data were unusable or could not be accessed or analysed. We recommend a qualitative study to understand stakeholder perspectives of dog theft crime in different areas, and a standardised and transparent approach to recording the theft of a dog by all forces across England and Wales. This could be achieved by classifying dog theft (or pet theft more generally) as a crime in itself under the Sentencing Guidelines associated with the Theft Act 1968. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Individuals from minority ethnic groups in the UK are thought to be at higher risk of developing dementia while facing additional barriers to receiving timely care. However, few studies in the UK have examined if there are ethnic disparities in survival once individuals receive a dementia diagnosis. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using electronic health record data of individuals diagnosed with dementia from a large secondary mental healthcare provider in London. Patients from Black African, Black Caribbean, South Asian, White British, and White Irish ethnic backgrounds were followed up for a 10-year period between 01 January 2008 and 31 December 2017. Data were linked to death certificate data from the Office of National Statistics to determine survival from dementia diagnosis. Standardised mortality ratios were calculated to estimate excess deaths in each ethnicity group as compared to the gender- and age-standardised population of England and Wales. We used Cox regression models to compare survival after dementia diagnosis across each ethnicity group. Results: Mortality was elevated at least twofold across all ethnicity groups with dementia compared to the general population in England and Wales. Risk of death was lower in Black Caribbean, Black African, White Irish, and South Asian groups as compared to the White British population, even after adjusting for age, gender, neighbourhood-level deprivation, indicators of mental and physical comorbidities. Risk of death remained lower after additionally accounting for those who emigrated out of the cohort. Conclusions: While mortality in dementia is elevated across all ethnic groups as compared to the general population, reasons for longer survival in minority ethnic groups in the UK as compared to the White British group are unclear and merit further exploration. Implications of longer survival, including carer burden and costs, should be considered in policy and planning to ensure adequate support for families and carers of individuals with dementia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Access to high-quality palliative care is inadequate for most people living and dying with serious illness. Policies aimed at optimising delivery of palliative and end of life care are an important mechanism to improve quality of care for the dying. The extent to which palliative care is included in national health policies is unknown. We aimed to identify priorities and opportunities for palliative and end of life care in national health policies in the UK. Methods: Documentary analysis consisting of 1) summative content analysis to describe the extent to which palliative and end of life care is referred to and/or prioritised in national health and social care policies, and 2) thematic analysis to explore health policy priorities that are opportunities to widen access to palliative and end of life care for people with serious illness. Relevant national policy documents were identified through web searches of key government and other organisations, and through expert consultation. Documents included were UK-wide or devolved (i.e. England, Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales), health and social care government strategies published from 2010 onwards. Results: Fifteen policy documents were included in the final analysis. Twelve referred to palliative or end of life care, but details about what should improve, or mechanisms to achieve this, were sparse. Policy priorities that are opportunities to widen palliative and end of life care access comprised three inter-related themes: (1) integrated care – conceptualised as reorganisation of services as a way to enable improvement; (2) personalised care – conceptualised as allowing people to shape and manage their own care; and (3) support for unpaid carers – conceptualised as enabling unpaid carers to live a more independent lifestyle and balance caring with their own needs. Conclusions: Although information on palliative and end of life care in UK health and social care policies was sparse, improving palliative care may provide an evidence-based approach to achieve the stated policy priorities of integrated care, personalised care, and support for unpaid carers. Aligning existing evidence of the benefits of palliative care with the three priorities identified may be an effective mechanism to both strengthen policy and improve care for people who are dying. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The prevalence of obesity has increased in the United Kingdom, and reliably measuring the impact on quality of life and the total healthcare cost from obesity is key to informing the cost-effectiveness of interventions that target obesity, and determining healthcare funding. Current methods for estimating cost-effectiveness of interventions for obesity may be subject to confounding and reverse causation. The aim of this study is to apply a new approach using mendelian randomisation for estimating the cost-effectiveness of interventions that target body mass index (BMI), which may be less affected by confounding and reverse causation than previous approaches.Methods and Findings: We estimated health-related quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and both primary and secondary healthcare costs for 310,913 men and women of white British ancestry aged between 39 and 72 years in UK Biobank between recruitment (2006 to 2010) and 31 March 2017. We then estimated the causal effect of differences in BMI on QALYs and total healthcare costs using mendelian randomisation. For this, we used instrumental variable regression with a polygenic risk score (PRS) for BMI, derived using a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of BMI, with age, sex, recruitment centre, and 40 genetic principal components as covariables to estimate the effect of a unit increase in BMI on QALYs and total healthcare costs. Finally, we used simulations to estimate the likely effect on BMI of policy relevant interventions for BMI, then used the mendelian randomisation estimates to estimate the cost-effectiveness of these interventions. A unit increase in BMI decreased QALYs by 0.65% of a QALY (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.49% to 0.81%) per year and increased annual total healthcare costs by £42.23 (95% CI: £32.95 to £51.51) per person. When considering only health conditions usually considered in previous cost-effectiveness modelling studies (cancer, cardiovascular disease, cerebrovascular disease, and type 2 diabetes), we estimated that a unit increase in BMI decreased QALYs by only 0.16% of a QALY (95% CI: 0.10% to 0.22%) per year. We estimated that both laparoscopic bariatric surgery among individuals with BMI greater than 35 kg/m2, and restricting volume promotions for high fat, salt, and sugar products, would increase QALYs and decrease total healthcare costs, with net monetary benefits (at £20,000 per QALY) of £13,936 (95% CI: £8,112 to £20,658) per person over 20 years, and £546 million (95% CI: £435 million to £671 million) in total per year, respectively. The main limitations of this approach are that mendelian randomisation relies on assumptions that cannot be proven, including the absence of directional pleiotropy, and that genotypes are independent of confounders.Conclusions: Mendelian randomisation can be used to estimate the impact of interventions on quality of life and healthcare costs. We observed that the effect of increasing BMI on health-related quality of life is much larger when accounting for 240 chronic health conditions, compared with only a limited selection. This means that previous cost-effectiveness studies have likely underestimated the effect of BMI on quality of life and, therefore, the potential cost-effectiveness of interventions to reduce BMI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Transgender, or trans, people experience a number of barriers to accessing gender-affirming healthcare and have a range of barriers and facilitators to primary care and specialist services, commonly citing discrimination and cisgenderism playing a central role in shaping accessibility. The pathway through primary care to specialist services is a particularly precarious time for trans people, and misinformation and poorly applied protocols can have a detrimental impact on wellbeing.Method: We recruited trans participants from an HIV Self-Testing Public Health Intervention (SELPHI) trial to interviews which explored contemporary gender-affirming service experiences, with an aim to examine the path from primary care services through to specialist gender services, in the UK.Results: A narrative synthesis of vignettes and thematic analysis of in-depth qualitative interviews were conducted with twenty trans individuals. We summarise positive and negative accounts of care under three broad categories: Experiences with primary care physicians, referrals to gender identity clinics (GICs), and experiences at GICs.Conclusions: We discuss implications of this research in terms of how to improve best practice for trans people attempting to access gender-affirming healthcare in the UK. Here we highlight the importance of GP's access to knowledge around pathways and protocols and clinical practice which treats trans patients holistically. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective To determine whether mobilisation timing was associated with the cumulative incidence of hospital discharge by 30 days after hip fracture surgery, accounting for potential confounders and the competing risk of in-hospital death. Method We examined data for 135,105 patients 60 years or older who underwent surgery for nonpathological first hip fracture between 1 January 2014 and 31 December 2016 in any hospital in England or Wales. We tested whether the cumulative incidences of discharge differed between those mobilised early (within 36 h of surgery) and those mobilised late, accounting for potential confounders and the competing risk of in-hospital death. Results A total of 106,722 (79%) of patients first mobilised early. The average rate of discharge was 39.2 (95% CI 38.9–39.5) per 1,000 patient days, varying from 43.1 (95% CI 42.8–43.5) among those who mobilised early to 27.0 (95% CI 26.6–27.5) among those who mobilised late, accounting for the competing risk of death. By 30-day postoperatively, the crude and adjusted odds ratios of discharge were 2.36 (95% CI 2.29–2.43) and 2.08 (95% CI 2.00–2.16), respectively, among those who first mobilised early compared with those who mobilised late, accounting for the competing risk of death. Conclusion Early mobilisation led to a 2-fold increase in the adjusted odds of discharge by 30-day postoperatively. We recommend inclusion of mobilisation within 36 h of surgery as a new UK Best Practice Tariff to help reduce delays to mobilisation currently experienced by one-fifth of patients surgically treated for hip fracture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigated how the COVID-19 crisis and the extraordinary experience of lockdown affected young adults in England and Wales psychologically. One month after lockdown commenced (T2), we assessed 30 psychological and behavioural traits in more than 4000 twins in their mid-twenties and compared their responses to the same traits assessed in 2018 (T1). Mean changes from T1 to T2 were modest and inconsistent. Contrary to the hypothesis that major environmental changes related to COVID-19 would result in increased variance in psychological and behavioural traits, we found that the magnitude of individual differences did not change from T1 to T2. Twin analyses revealed that while genetic factors accounted for about half of the reliable variance at T1 and T2, they only accounted for ~ 15% of individual differences in change from T1 to T2, and that nonshared environmental factors played a major role in psychological and behavioural changes. Shared environmental influences had negligible impact on T1, T2 or T2 change. Genetic factors correlated on average.86 between T1 and T2 and accounted for over half of the phenotypic stability, as would be expected for a 2-year interval even without the major disruption of lockdown. We conclude that the first month of lockdown has not resulted in major psychological or attitudinal shifts in young adults, nor in major changes in the genetic and environmental origins of these traits. Genetic influences on the modest psychological and behavioural changes are likely to be the result of gene–environment correlation not interaction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigated the prevalence of loneliness among 1206 adults aged 40 + from six minority communities in England and Wales: Black Caribbean, Black African, Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi and Chinese. Replicating the approach from the previous studies, we demonstrate robust acceptability, reliability and validity for both the six-item De Jong Gierveld (DJG) and single-item loneliness scales in our six ethnic groups. The prevalence of loneliness using a single-item question (loneliness reported as often/always) ranges from 5% (Indian) to 14% (Chinese) compared with approximately 5% for the general population aged 40 + in Britain. Levels of loneliness are very much higher using the DJG scale. Using a loneliness threshold score of 5 +, the percentage ranged from 13% (Indian) to 36% (Chinese). We explored the importance of six established loneliness vulnerability factors for our sample using regression modelling. Three factors were not associated with loneliness—number of children, gender and health rating, and three factors were protective: younger age, being married and low financial strain. The addition of ethnicity did not change these relationships or enhance statistical power of our models. Being a member of the African Caribbean group was protective against loneliness but not for the other groups included in our study. We suggest that exposure to loneliness vulnerability factors rather than ethnicity per se or measurement artefact underpins differences in loneliness across ethnic groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increased emphasis on efficiency improvements has brought the benefits of internal savings and improved service deliveries of water supplies to the developed countries. However, water supply services in developing countries often exhibit large inefficiencies making it difficult to expand coverage or improve supply services. A comparative assessment of efficiencies in the developed and developing countries is therefore essential to estimate the actual lag that developing countries typically experience, and to arrive at an estimate of their efficiency improvements. This manuscript makes an effort in this direction by undertaking a cross-country benchmarking study on the level of inefficiencies prevailing in Indian urban water supply services (IUWSS) relative to the utilities in the UK—England and Wales. This manuscript uses data envelopment analysis approach to measure relative efficiencies of water supplies for a sample of 30 water utilities in India and the UK—England and Wales for the year 2015. The results indicate that there exist significant technical and scale inefficiencies in water supply operations of Indian municipalities compared with the UK—England and Wales. DEA results also show a significant scope for savings with respect to operating expenditures and non-revenue water, if Indian utilities were to adopt the best practices and managerial tools of the utilities in the UK—England and Wales. Further, it was found that IUWSS need a restructuring of their municipalities to become more efficient. This manuscript discusses the above results in the context of policy implications and suggests few mechanisms that are relevant from a developing country perspective for possible improvement in water supply services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Stratifying patient populations by risk of adverse events was believed to support preventive care for those identified, but recent evidence does not support this. Emergency admission risk stratification (EARS) tools have been widely promoted in UK policy and GP contracts.Aim: To describe availability and use of EARS tools across the UK, and identify factors perceived to influence implementation.Design and Setting: Cross-sectional survey in UK.Method: Online survey of 235 organisations responsible for UK primary care: 209 clinical commissioning groups (CCGs) in England; 14 health boards in Scotland; seven health boards in Wales; and five local commissioning groups (LCGs) in Northern Ireland. Analysis results are presented using descriptive statistics for closed questions and by theme for open questions.Results: Responses were analysed from 171 (72.8%) organisations, of which 148 (86.5%) reported that risk tools were available in their areas. Organisations identified 39 different EARS tools in use. Promotion by NHS commissioners, involvement of clinical leaders, and engagement of practice managers were identified as the most important factors in encouraging use of tools by general practices. High staff workloads and information governance were identified as important barriers. Tools were most frequently used to identify individual patients, but also for service planning. Nearly 40% of areas using EARS tools reported introducing or realigning services as a result, but relatively few reported use for service evaluation.Conclusion: EARS tools are widely available across the UK, although there is variation by region. There remains a need to align policy and practice with research evidence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Giving children the best start in life is critical for their future health and wellbeing. Political devolution in the UK provides a natural experiment to explore how public health systems contribute to children's early developmental outcomes across four countries. Method A systematic literature review and input from a stakeholder group was used to develop a public health systems framework. This framework then informed analysis of public health policy approaches to early child development. Results A total of 118 studies met the inclusion criteria. All national policies championed a 'prevention approach' to early child development. Political factors shaped divergence, with variation in national conceptualizations of child development ('preparing for life' versus 'preparing for school') and pre-school provision ('universal entitlement' or 'earned benefit'). Poverty and resourcing were identified as key system factors that influenced outcomes. Scotland and Wales have enacted distinctive legislation focusing on wider determinants. However, this is limited by the extent of devolved powers. Conclusion The systems framework clarifies policy complexity relating to early child development. The divergence of child development policies in the four countries and, particularly, the explicit recognition in Scottish and Welsh policy of wider determinants, creates scope for this topic to be a tracer area to compare UK public health systems longer term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In October 2017, the United Kingdom Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) recommended removal of one primary dose of the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) from the existing 2+1 schedule (2, 4, 12 months). We conducted a mathematical modelling study to investigate the potential impact of a 1+1 (3, 12 month) schedule on invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) and pneumococcal community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). Our results and those from a 1+1 immunogenicity study formed the key evidence reviewed by JCVI.Methods and Findings: We developed age-structured, dynamic, deterministic models of pneumococcal transmission in England and Wales to describe the impact on IPD of 7-valent PCV (PCV7; introduced in 2006) and PCV13 (introduced in 2010). Key transmission and vaccine parameters were estimated by fitting to carriage data from 2001/2002 and post-PCV IPD data to 2015, using vaccine coverage, mixing patterns between ages, and population data. We considered various models to investigate potential reasons for the rapid increase in non-PCV13 (non-vaccine serotype [NVT]) IPD cases since 2014. After searching a large parameter space, 500 parameter sets were identified with a likelihood statistically close to the maximum and these used to predict future cases (median, prediction range from 500 parameter sets). Our findings indicated that the emergence of individual NVTs with higher virulence resulting from ongoing replacement was likely responsible; the NVT increase was predicted to plateau from 2020. Long-term simulation results suggest that changing to a 1+1 schedule would have little overall impact, as the small increase in vaccine-type IPD would be offset by a reduction in NVT IPD. Our results were robust to changes in vaccine assumptions in a sensitivity analysis. Under the base case scenario, a change to a 1+1 schedule in 2018 was predicted to produce 31 (6, 76) additional IPD cases over five years and 83 (-10, 242) additional pneumococcal-CAP cases, with together 8 (-2, 24) additional deaths, none in children under 15 years. Long-term continuation with the 2+1 schedule, or changing to a 1+1, was predicted to sustain current reductions in IPD cases in under-64-year-olds, but cases in 65+-year-olds would continue to increase because of the effects of an aging population. Limitations of our model include difficulty in fitting to past trends in NVT IPD in some age groups and inherent uncertainty about future NVT behaviour, sparse data for defining the mixing matrix in 65+-year-olds, and the methodological challenge of defining uncertainty on predictions.Conclusions: Our findings suggest that, with the current mature status of the PCV programme in England and Wales, removing one primary dose in the first year of life would have little impact on IPD or pneumococcal CAP cases or associated deaths at any age. A reduction in the number of priming doses would improve programmatic efficiency and facilitate the introduction of new vaccines by reducing the number of coadministered vaccines given at 2 and 4 months of age in the current UK schedule. Our findings should not be applied to other settings with different pneumococcal epidemiology or with immature programmes and poor herd immunity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Buried palaeo‐valley systems have been identified widely beneath lowland parts of the UK including eastern England, central England, south Wales and the North Sea. In the Midland Valley of Scotland palaeo‐valleys have been identified yet the age and genesis of these enigmatic features remain poorly understood. This study utilizes a digital data set of over 100 000 boreholes that penetrate the full thickness of deposits in the Midland Valley of Scotland. It identified 18 buried palaeo‐valleys, which range from 4 to 36 km in length and 24 to 162 m in depth. Geometric analysis has revealed four distinct valley morphologies, which were formed by different subglacial and subaerial processes. Some palaeo‐valleys cross‐cut each other with the deepest features aligning east–west. These east–west features align with the reconstructed ice‐flow direction under maximum conditions of the Main Late Devensian glaciation. The shallower features appear more aligned to ice‐flow direction during ice‐sheet retreat, and were therefore probably incised under more restricted ice‐sheet configurations. The bedrock lithology influences and enhances the position and depth of palaeo‐valleys in this lowland glacial terrain. Faults have juxtaposed Palaeozoic sedimentary and igneous rocks and the deepest palaeo‐valleys occur immediately down‐ice of knick‐points in the more resistant igneous bedrock. The features are regularly reused and the fills are dominated by glacial fluvial and glacial marine deposits. This suggests that the majority of infilling of the features happened during deglaciation and may be unrelated to the processes that cut them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Dating and relationship violence (DRV) is under-researched in the UK, especially among Further Education (FE) students. This study examines the association between DRV victimization and socio-demographic characteristics, sexual identity and dating and relationship behaviours among 16–19 year olds FE students. Methods Cross-sectional self-report data were collected from 1751 students aged 16–19 at six FE settings in England and Wales. Factor analysis examined the structure of DRV victimization by gender. Multilevel logistic regression examined the odds ratios of DRV victimization according to socio-demographics, sexual identity and dating behaviours. Results DRV victimization clusters into two categories for females, and three for males. Among females, 46.1% experienced controlling behaviours and 31.6% threatening behaviours; 49.9% of males experienced controlling behaviours, 27.1% threatening behaviours and 5.8% online sexual violence. The odds of DRV victimization were 2–8 times greater for males and 2–4 times greater for females who had ever sent a sexually explicit image. No consistent association was found between DRV and age, spending money per week, educational attainment or meeting partners online. Conclusions The high prevalence, absence of gender differences and social patterning, suggests DRV victimization may be becoming normalized and is of significant public health importance for young people in England and Wales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction Coronary heart disease (CHD) remains a leading cause of UK mortality. Dietary trans fats (TFA) represent a powerful CHD risk factor. However, UK efforts to reduce intake have been less successful than other nations. We modelled the potential health and economic effects of eliminating industrial and all TFA up to 2020. Methods We extended the previously validated IMPACTsec model, to estimate the potential effects on health and economic outcomes of mandatory reformulation or a complete ban on dietary TFA in England and Wales from 2011 to 2020. We modelled two policy scenarios: 1) Elimination of industrial TFA consumption, from 0.8% to 0.4% daily energy 2) Elimination of all TFA consumption, from 0.8% to 0% Results Elimination of industrial TFA across the England and Wales population could result in approximately 1600 fewer deaths per year, with some 4000 fewer hospital admissions; gaining approximately 14 000 additional life years. Health inequalities would be substantially reduced in both scenarios. Elimination of industrial TFA would be cost saving. This would include approximately £100m saved in direct healthcare costs. Elimination of all TFA would double the health and economic gains. Conclusions Eliminating industrial or all UK dietary intake of TFA could substantially reduce CHD mortality and inequalities, while resulting in substantial annual savings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

School closure is often considered as an influenza control measure, but its effects on transmission are poorly understood. We used 2 approaches to estimate how school holidays affect the contact parameter (the per capita rate of contact sufficient for infection transmission) for influenza using primary care data from England and Wales (1967-2000). Firstly, we fitted an age-structured susceptible-infectious-recovered model to each year's data to estimate the proportional change in the contact parameter during school holidays as compared with termtime. Secondly, we calculated the percentage difference in the contact parameter between holidays and termtime from weekly values of the contact parameter, estimated directly from simple mass-action models. Estimates were combined using random-effects meta-analysis, where appropriate. From fitting to the data, the difference in the contact parameter among children aged 5-14 years during holidays as compared with termtime ranged from a 36% reduction to a 17% increase; estimates were too heterogeneous for meta-analysis. Based on the simple mass-action model, the contact parameter was 17% (95% confidence interval: 10, 25) lower during holidays than during termtime. Results were robust to the assumed proportions of infections that were reported and individuals who were susceptible when the influenza season started. We conclude that school closure may reduce transmission during influenza outbreaks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Burglary in England and Wales fell by 67 % between 1993 and 2008/09. This study examines whether this fall was equitable across different population segments (with respect to their socio-economic characteristics) and area types. In particular, it estimates the extent of burglary falls and any changes in the victimisation divide across socio-economic (population) groups taking into account group composition. To this end, it compares their burglary incidence rates based on burglary count models of the 1994 and 2008/09 Crime Survey for England and Wales data. The results show that some socio-economic groups experienced inequitable burglary falls, and relative to others continue to experience burglaries at higher rates after the crime drop than before. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We evaluated clinical Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli O157 infections in England and Wales during 1983-2012 to describe changes in microbiological and surveillance methods. A strain replacement event was captured; phage type (PT) 2 decreased to account for just 3% of cases by 2012, whereas PT8 and PT21/28 strains concurrently emerged, constituting almost two thirds of cases by 2012. Despite interventions to control and reduce transmission, incidence remained constant. However, sources of infection changed over time; outbreaks caused by contaminated meat and milk declined, suggesting that interventions aimed at reducing meat cross-contamination were effective. Petting farm and school and nursery outbreaks increased, suggesting the emergence of other modes of transmission and potentially contributing to the sustained incidence over time. Studies assessing interventions and consideration of policies and guidance should be undertaken to reduce Shiga toxin-producing E. coli O157 infections in England and Wales in line with the latest epidemiologic findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In 2010, the "Tackling Suicide on the Railways" programme was launched as a joint initiative among Network Rail, the Samaritans and other key organisations such as the British Transport Police and train operators to achieve a 20% reduction in railway suicides from 2010 to 2015 in Great Britain. We report the most recent age and sex specific trends in railway suicide in England and Wales from 2000 to 2013 and examine whether the initiative's target reduction in railway suicides is likely to be achieved.Methods: Population data and suicide mortality data (all methods combined and railway) for England and Wales were obtained from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and used to calculate age and gender specific rates for deaths registered from 2000 to 2013. Data on railway suicides were also obtained from the Rail Safety and Standards Board (RSSB) and compared with ONS data. We used joinpoint regression to identify changes in suicide trends across the study period.Results: The railway was used in 4.1% of all suicides in England and Wales (RSSB data were similar to ONS data for most years). Suicides in all persons from all causes decreased from 2000 to 2007, with small increases from 2008 until 2013; this rise was entirely due to an increase in male suicides. Railway suicide rates increased over the entire study period; the proportion of railway suicides in all persons increased from 3.5 to 4.9% during the study period. This trend was also mainly driven by increases in male suicides as female railway suicide rates remained steady over time. The highest age specific railway suicide rates were observed in middle aged men and women. Although there was no conclusive evidence of an increase in ONS railway suicides, RSSB data showed a statistically significant increase in railway suicides in males from 2009 onwards.Conclusion: The continued rise in male railway suicide in England and Wales is concerning, particularly due to the high economic costs and psychological trauma associated with these deaths. The initiative's target of a 20% reduction in railway suicide is unlikely to be achieved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Secure hospitals are a high-cost, low-volume service consuming around a fifth of the overall mental health budget in England and Wales.Aims: A systematic review and meta-analysis of adverse outcomes after discharge along with a comparison with rates in other clinical and forensic groups in order to inform public health and policy.Method: We searched for primary studies that followed patients discharged from a secure hospital, and reported mortality, readmissions or reconvictions. We determined crude rates for all adverse outcomes.Results: In total, 35 studies from 10 countries were included, involving 12 056 patients out of which 53% were violent offenders. The crude death rate for all-cause mortality was 1538 per 100 000 person-years (95% CI 1175-1901). For suicide, the crude death rate was 325 per 100 000 person-years (95% CI 235-415). The readmission rate was 7208 per 100 000 person-years (95% CI 5916-8500). Crude reoffending rates were 4484 per 100 000 person-years (95% CI 3679-5287), with lower rates in more recent studies.Conclusions: There is some evidence that patients discharged from forensic psychiatric services have lower offending outcomes than many comparative groups. Services could consider improving interventions aimed at reducing premature mortality, particularly suicide, in discharged patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Long-term, low-level exposure to toxic elements in soil may be harmful to human health but large longitudinal cohort studies with sufficient follow-up time to study these effects are cost-prohibitive and impractical. Linkage of routinely collected medical outcome data to systematic surveys of soil quality may offer a viable alternative. Methods: We used the Geochemical Baseline Survey of the Environment (G-BASE), a systematic X-ray fluorescence survey of soil inorganic chemistry throughout England and Wales to obtain estimates of the concentrations of 15 elements in the soil contained within each English and Welsh postcode area. We linked these data to the residential postcodes of individuals enrolled in The Health Improvement Network (THIN), a large database of UK primary care medical records, to provide estimates of exposure. Observed exposure levels among the THIN population were compared with expectations based on UK population estimates to assess representativeness. Results: Three hundred seventy-seven of three hundred ninety-five English and Welsh THIN practices agreed to participate in the linkage, providing complete residential soil metal estimates for 6,243,363 individuals (92% of all current and former patients) with a mean period of prospective computerised medical data collection (follow-up) of 6.75 years. Overall agreement between the THIN population and expectations was excellent; however, the number of participating practices in the Yorkshire & Humber strategic health authority was low, leading to restricted ranges of measurements for some elements relative to the known variations in geochemical concentrations in this area. Conclusions: The linked database provides unprecedented population size and statistical power to study the effects of elements in soil on human health. With appropriate adjustment, results should be generalizable to and representative of the wider English and Welsh population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, UK public health messages about the risks of sunlight exposure (skin cancer) have been increasingly balanced by messages about its benefits (vitamin D production). Currently, data about the effects of this shift on public knowledge, awareness, and behaviour are scant. Thus, the objective of this paper is to report the findings of the first large-scale and representative survey of the awareness, knowledge, and behaviour of adults in Great Britain (England, Scotland, and Wales) ( n = 2024) with respect to sunlight exposure, vitamin D, and sunburn and skin cancer. The findings suggest that the public in Great Britain is much more aware of public promotion of the risks of sunlight exposure than its benefits. That said, knowledge about sunlight exposure and vitamin D is fairly strong, though not with respect to the detail of the 'little and often' approach. However, the survey also suggests that levels of sunlight exposure among the public are often excessive. The survey indicates that knowledge and behaviour are both less satisfactory among men and people in lower socio-economic groups. The paper concludes with recommendations for public health communications and for research in this area.