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This paper sheds light on an important and under‐researched issue: The sources of information about climate change that teachers use. Utilising a 'scoping review' methodological approach, we analysed over 600 papers to address two main questions: What sources of information about climate change are teachers using? In what ways are teachers using these sources of information? Through our use of inclusive search terms and detailed analysis of papers, we found only 13 studies of relevance, none of which primarily focus on the sources of information teachers use. The 13 studies are all located in the Global North, and within this nearly half are in the USA. Methodologically, all apart from two rely on teachers' reports rather than observation or other methods. Four types of sources of information were frequently mentioned: The Internet; government sources; mass media and professional development courses. The 'superabundance' of information now available to teachers (particularly online), the importance of high‐quality information for students' understandings of climate change, and the limited research on the sources of information about climate change that teachers use makes this is a significant blind spot for research to address. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the Arctic and its rivers continue to warm, a better understanding of the possible future impacts on people would benefit from close partnership with Indigenous communities and scientists from diverse fields of study. We present efforts by the Arctic Rivers Project to conduct community‐engaged research to increase collective understanding of the historical and potential future impacts of climate change on rivers, fish, and Indigenous communities. Working in central to northern Alaska and the Yukon Territory in Canada, the project seeks to engage with Indigenous communities in ethical and equitable ways to produces science that is useful, useable, and used that may serve as an example for future research efforts. Toward this goal, we formed an Indigenous Advisory Council and together developed project‐specific knowledge co‐production protocols. This paper provides a novel model of design and implementation to co‐produce knowledge with communities across a large study domain. Plain Language Summary: The Arctic and rivers located in the Arctic and subarctic are warming due to climate change. To understand the impacts this warming will have on people, partnering with impacted Indigenous communities in the region is important. It is also important that these partnerships are ethical and equitable and produce science that is actionable. This paper discusses efforts undertaken by a specific project, the Arctic Rivers Project, to conduct ethical and equitable research with Indigenous communities and generate science that is useful to those communities. Through this research our goal is to better understand potential future impacts of climate change on rivers, fish, and Indigenous communities in central northern Alaska and the Yukon Territory in Canada. To achieve this goal, the project formed an Indigenous Advisory Council (IAC) and together developed guidelines for how we can work collaboratively with Indigenous communities. Our specific process of forming an IAC and guidelines is, to our knowledge, a new way to approach collaborative research when working across a large geographic area. We present our process here so that it may provide an example for other research efforts. Key Points: Arctic climate information can be made useful, useable, and used by equitably accounting for diverse community adaptation needs through knowledge co‐productionInstitutional and community capacity, including means and ability, is necessary for equitable knowledge co‐production to occurWe present an approach for co‐producing knowledge with Indigenous communities that can serve as an example for other scientific efforts [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An important component of the risks from climate change arises from outcomes that are very unlikely, but whose impacts if they were to occur would be extremely severe. Examples include levels of surface warming, or changes in the water cycle, that are at the extreme of plausible ranges, or crossing of a climate system "tipping point" such as ice sheet or ocean circulation instability. If such changes were to occur their impacts on infrastructure or ecosystems may exceed existing plans for adaptation. The traditional approach of ensemble climate change projections is not well suited to managing these High Impact‐Low Likelihood (HILL) risks, where the objective is to "prepare for the worst" rather than to "plan for what's likely." In this paper we draw together a number of ideas from recent literature, to classify four types of HILL climate outcome and to propose the development of a practical "toolkit" of physical climate information that can be used in future to inform HILL risk management. The toolkit consists of several elements that would need to be developed for each plausible HILL climate outcome, then deployed individually to develop targeted HILL risk management approaches for individual sectors. We argue that development of the HILL toolkit should be an important focus for physical climate research over the coming decade, and that the time is right for a focused assessment of HILL risks by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in its 7th Assessment Cycle. Plain Language Summary: To prepare for the risks that arise from climate change (and avoid them where possible), it is important to understand how climate is likely to change in future, and what the impacts are likely to be. Over many years, climate science has developed sophisticated climate projections to estimate these likely impacts, and these are widely used to plan how people and societies will need to adapt to climate change. However it is also important to understand possibilities that are unlikely, but would have even more severe impacts if they did occur—for example, global warming levels at the high end of plausible estimates, or crossing a "tipping point" for major changes in ice sheets or ocean currents. A different type of information is needed to plan for these risks. In this paper we propose a new set of climate information "tools" to respond to these high‐impact risks. The tools include plausible scenarios of extreme outcomes, and early warning systems to detect if they are on the horizon. Combining these new tools with existing climate projections will allow society to understand more fully the risks of climate change, and to plan for the likely effects while preparing for the worst. Key Points: Climate outcomes or events that have a high impact are a key component of climate risk, even if their likelihood is lowTraditional climate projections are of limited use to inform management of high impact‐low likelihood risksPhysical climate science needs an increased focus on storylines, early warning and monitoring to inform management of high impact risks [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The year 2021 marked the bicentenary of the birth of James Croll (1821–1890), the self‐educated son of a crofter‐stonemason, whose life was characterised by a dizzying range of occupations and homes, poor health and financial concerns, and yet he became a pioneer of orbital dynamics and ice age climate change with an impressive record of publication. Drawing upon archival information and recently published observations, this paper explores selected aspects of Croll's biography, his scientific connections and controversies, and that area of his life relevant to Quaternary science. He was a 19th century polymath whose multifaceted contributions have been a catalyst for subsequent systems‐based climate science on the grand scale, including the foundations for the seminal work of Milutin Milankovitch on the rhythms of Quaternary environmental change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global response to climate‐sensitive infectious diseases has been uncertain and slow. The understanding of the underlying vulnerabilities which forms part of changes created by forces within the Earth system has never before been critical until the coronavirus disease 2019, "COVID‐19" pandemic with the initial developmental phase linked to weather elements and climate change. Hence, the heightened interest in climate‐sensitive infectious diseases and GeoHealth, evident in the renewed calls for "One Health" approach to disease management. "One Health" explains the commonality of human and animal medicine, and links to the bio‐geophysical environment, yet are at crossroads with how forces within the Earth system shape etiologies, incidences, and transmission dynamics of infectious diseases. Hence, the paper explores how these forces, which are multistage and driven by climate change impacts on ecosystems affect emerging infectious diseases, leading to the question "what drive the drivers of diseases?" Three questions that challenge broad theories of Earth system science on boundaries and connectivity emerged to guide study designs to further interrogating disease surveillance and health early warning systems. This is because, climate change (a) drives prevailing biological health hazards as part of forces within the Earth system, (b) shifts disease control services of ecosystems and functioning to effectively regulate disease incidence, and (c) modifies pathogen—species hosts relationships. Hence, the need to rethink pluralistic concepts of climate‐sensitive diseases in their infection and management from a GeoHealth perspective, which "One Health" potentially conveys, and to also maintain ecosystem health. Plain Language Summary: Climate change, an Earth system process (forces deep inside the earth that bring about adjustments) is considered the greatest threat to human health in the twenty‐first century. Climate change has been linked to shifts in ecosystem processes, services and interactions that affect how many organisms thrive including those causing diseases. Yet, how climate change influences specific processes between air, land, life, and water on earth to ultimately affect diseases is still emerging. Collectively partly defined as GeoHealth, it has become topical amidst the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) pandemic. Thus, its origin partly links to changes in land‐atmosphere interactions. Hence, the paper poses questions to better appreciate how climate change influence forces within the Earth system to subsequently impact infectious diseases and management in a holistic approach called "One Health," which GeoHealth is positioned to contribute to. Thus, "One Health" provides pathways to environmentally safeguard and sustain ecosystem health and human well‐being. Key Points: Earth system science of ecosystems and climate change hardly tells mechanisms of disease‐causing organisms, detection, and managementRevisiting "One Health" amidst "coronavirus disease 2019" is opportune pathway for GeoHealth's influence of climate‐sensitive infectious diseasesModern Earth system science of climate context of "One Health" is key to maintaining human well‐being and ecosystem integrity [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Current soil‐ and land degradation seriously challenge our societies; it contributes to climate change, loss of biodiversity and loss of agricultural productions. Yet, soils are also seen as a major part of the solution, if maintained or restored to provide ecosystem services. Climate‐smart sustainable management of soils can provide options for soil health maintenance and restoration. In the European Union, the resource management and sustainability challenge are addressed in the Green Deal that, among other goals, aspires towards a healthy climate‐resilient agricultural sector that will produce sufficient products without damaging ecosystems and contribute to better biodiversity and mitigate climate change. The European Joint Programme (EJP) SOIL was set up to contribute to these goals by developing knowledge, tools and an integrated research community to foster climate‐smart sustainable agricultural soil management that provides a diversity of ecosystem service, such as adapting to and mitigating climate change, allowing sustainable food production, and sustaining soil biodiversity. This paper provides an overview of the potential of climate‐smart sustainable soil management research to the targets of the Green Deal that are related to soils most directly. The EJP SOIL EU‐wide consultation (interviews and questionnaires) and literature analysis (national and international reports and papers) done in the first year (2020–2021) generated a wealth of data. This data showed that there are specific manners to do research that are essential for it to be effective and efficient and that can actively contribute to the Green Deal targets. We concluded that research needs to be: (i) interdisciplinary, (ii) long‐term, (iii) multi‐scaled, from plot to landscape, (iv) evaluating trade‐offs of selected management options for ecosystem services and (v) co‐constructed with key stakeholders. Research on climate‐smart sustainable soil management should be developed (1) on plot scale when mobilizing soil processes and on landscape scale when addressing sediment and water connectivity and biodiversity management; and (2) address the enabling conditions through good governance, social acceptance and viable economic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While the majority of adults across the United States report that they believe that global warming is happening, far fewer report discussing global warming (Howe et al., 2015, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2583; Marlon et al., 2022, https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/visualizations‐data/ycom‐us/). One way to inspire further climate action and engagement is to increase individuals' capacity to confidently and effectively discuss climate change. Climate communication science highlights that such communication is most effective when it is anecdotal, narrative, tailored to the audience, and place‐based. To generate climate conversations and inspire action in a variety of communities, partners at the University of Minnesota Extension piloted a program to train community members from across the state of Minnesota in effective climate communication through a series of instructional workshops, coaching, and participant‐led communication activities. Following the training portion of the program, participants identified and hosted their own climate‐related communication activities in their communities. These "climate conversations" took place across Minnesota and included community events, dialogue with elected leaders, and conversations stimulated through literature, among other activities. In their communities, program participants sparked conversations, initiated long‐term climate action efforts, and improved their sense of efficacy in response to climate change. Participants also reported that they improved their climate conversation skills, increased their local climate knowledge, established a support network with fellow participants, had reduced anxiety around communicating, and increased their confidence in being able to communicate about climate change in their communities. This pilot program provides a framework for future cohort‐ and community‐based climate communication programs in the state and beyond. Plain Language Summary: More frequent, effective climate conversations initiated by a diversity of trusted voices can help to increase climate concern and desire for action at the community level. However, in the United States, there is a disconnect between the level of concern individuals have about climate change and the extent to which individuals talk about the issue. To help bridge this gap, the University of Minnesota Climate Adaptation Partnership developed a training program aimed at inspiring and equipping local community members across Greater Minnesota with the skills and confidence to have effective conversations about climate change in their communities. This paper summarizes the programmatic activities we used to support our goals, and some reflections on the program's results. This pilot program provides a framework for future efforts that can be facilitated by Extension programs, community‐based organizations, universities, and others to inspire and accelerate similar community‐centered climate conversations. Key Points: We piloted a training program to teach Minnesotans to effectively communicate about climate change and its impacts on their communitiesParticipants improved behavioral and conversation skills to communicate about climate change more effectivelyThis program provides a framework for future programs aimed at increasing the diversity of people engaging in local climate conversations [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Glynn et al. (2017, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016EF000487) note the importance of engaging stakeholders in the process of public policymaking and analysis. In particular, they highlight the central role biases, beliefs, heuristics, and values play in such engagement. However, the framework they propose neglects uncertainty, which significantly restricts any ability to engage effectively with BBHV. We show how their paper's narrow view can be widened to include aspects of risk and uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This document provides a summary of a hackathon event organized by the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) and Aon, a reinsurance company, to explore the social impacts of climate change. The hackathon focused on developing consistent scenarios for future climate risk, understanding uncertainties in European windstorm modeling, and providing real-time context for extreme weather events. The teams developed tools and methodologies to assess the severity and potential impact of extreme events on insured losses. The collaboration between the MoJ, Aon, and participants from various institutions aims to further research and develop papers and grant proposals in these areas. [Extracted from the article]

Separating existing historical precipitation data into solid and liquid precipitation remains a challenge in the study of climate change, extreme precipitation, and hydrological modelling. Based on historical daily air temperature and precipitation data, as well as visual observations of precipitation phase (weather phenomena records) in China mainland, this study proposed a snow‐day direct definition method (SDDM) to determine the threshold air temperature (TAT) of rainfall and snowfall, and analysed the spatial pattern and its influential factors. The main findings include: (1) the TAT based on the SDDM varied from −1.2 to 6.3°C, with a mean value of 2.8°C for the entire study region; (2) TAT was generally higher and more variable in the low‐latitude areas, and the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau was characterized by an abnormally high average TAT of 5.2°C, almost twice as large as that of the eastern monsoon region; (3) TAT exhibited a significant positive correlation with altitude and negative correlation with precipitation and relative humidity. The results presented in this paper have potential application for studies of large‐scale snowfall climatology and climate change, weather forecasting techniques, and hydrological model parameterization in areas with complex and diverse geographical and climatic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: The dedication of the international anaesthetic community to reducing the environmental impact of healthcare is important and to be celebrated. When this is underpinned by robust science, it has the potential to make a real difference. However, volatile anaesthetic agents have been widely promoted in the medical literature as damaging to the climate, leading to a drive to remove them from clinical practice. This is based on notional 'CO2‐equivalent' values created using the simple emission metric known as the global warming potential. Here, we assert that when proper consideration is given to the science of climate change, volatile anaesthetic gas emissions cannot be simply equated to real carbon dioxide emissions, and that their climate impact is vanishingly small. This paper gives anaesthetists a framework to make informed choices founded on climate science and calls for attention to be refocused on the urgent need to reduce the real carbon dioxide emissions associated with healthcare. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rise in the Earth's global average surface temperature and the increase of extreme weather events have been the focus of scientific discussion in the last decades. Extreme heat combined with other environmental extremes, like high concentrations of air pollution, may induce health problems—especially in socioeconomically vulnerable populations. Spring in South America requires particular attention due to its association with hot, dry weather and air pollution in most parts of the continent. This paper intends to better comprehend the behaviour of heatwaves during the austral winter–spring transition. We propose identifying the spatial coverage, frequency and intensity of heatwaves in homogeneous areas of maximum air temperature near the surface (Tmax). We employed cluster analyses during the period between July and October for 41 years (1979–2019) through the ERA5 reanalysis. Homogeneous Tmax areas in South America were defined by cluster analyses that indicated three homogeneous Tmax regions, as follows: a larger area of the continent including the tropical region (Area 1), eastern and southeastern South America (Area 2) and southernmost and steep areas in the Andes (Area 3). The heatwave events identified via ERA5 reanalysis were classified according to their intensity (intense, moderate and weak events). Spatial frequency and trend analyses were also performed regarding the intensity and persistence of heatwave episodes. These methods allowed the identification of the behavioural aspect of heatwaves spanning the last four decades. The Mann–Kendall statistical test (MK) was applied in order to analyse the heatwave trend with a statistical significance level of 5%. A total of 191 heatwave episodes were identified. Of this total, 47.12, 35.60 and 17.28% of episodes occurred in Areas 2, 3 and 1, respectively. The hotter area extending from northeast to southwest in central South America stood out by its largest frequencies of intense heatwave episodes. Across the continent there was a significant increase in the intensity and persistence of heatwaves over the period of 1979 through to 2019. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In climate science and applications, the term "metric" is used to describe the distillation of complex, multifaceted evaluations to summarize the overall quality of a model simulation, or other data product, and/or as a means to quantify some response to climate change. Metrics provide insights into the fidelity of processes and outcomes from climate models and can assist with both differentiating models' representation of variables or processes and informing whether models are "fit for purpose." Metrics can also provide a valuable reference point for co‐production of knowledge between climate scientists and climate impact practitioners. Although continued metric developments enable model developers to better understand the impacts of decisions made in the model design process, metrics also have implications for the characterization of uncertainty and facilitating analyses of underlying physical processes. As a result, comprehensive evaluation with multiple metrics enhances usability of climate information by both scientific and stakeholder communities. This paper presents examples of insights gained from the development and appropriate use of metrics, and provides examples of how metrics can be used to engage with stakeholders and inform decision‐making. This article is categorized under:Climate Models and Modeling > Knowledge Generation with ModelsThe Social Status of Climate Change Knowledge > Climate Science and Decision MakingAssessing Impacts of Climate Change > Evaluating Future Impacts of Climate Change [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes the GISS‐E2.1 contribution to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6 (CMIP6). This model version differs from the predecessor model (GISS‐E2) chiefly due to parameterization improvements to the atmospheric and ocean model components, while keeping atmospheric resolution the same. Model skill when compared to modern era climatologies is significantly higher than in previous versions. Additionally, updates in forcings have a material impact on the results. In particular, there have been specific improvements in representations of modes of variability (such as the Madden‐Julian Oscillation and other modes in the Pacific) and significant improvements in the simulation of the climate of the Southern Oceans, including sea ice. The effective climate sensitivity to 2 × CO2 is slightly higher than previously at 2.7–3.1°C (depending on version) and is a result of lower CO2 radiative forcing and stronger positive feedbacks. Plain Language Summary: This paper describes the latest iteration of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate model, which will be used for understanding historical climate change and to make projections for the future. We compare the model output to a wide range of observations over the recent era (1979–2014) and show that there has been a significant increase in how well the model performs compared to the previous version from 2014, particularly in the Southern Ocean, though some persistent biases remain. The model has a temperature response to the increase of carbon dioxide that is slightly higher than previous versions but is well within the range expected from observational and past climate constraints. Key Points: GISS‐E2.1 is an updated climate model version for use within the CMIP6 projectAtmospheric composition is calculated consistently in all model versionsResults demonstrate a significant improvement in skill in a climate model without changes to atmospheric resolution [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While UN reports indicate increasingly dire consequences of climate change, the political will to initiate rapid decarbonization is lacking, as nations fail to meet targets set by international agreements. Given these developments, this paper investigates the role of climate dread and fatalism in the discourse about climate science. We examine the treatment of fatalism in major theories of the policy process, noting that climate policy represents a relatively novel situation—in which a problem once deemed solvable is being redefined as an issue outside the realm of human control. Using automated content analysis, we examine how journalists and interest groups framed reports issued by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) from 2013 to 2022. We find limited changes in the tone and content of news stories and environmental groups' statements, and we suggest that these findings reflect under‐reaction of the political system to new information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sinking atolls are an enduring symbol of the power of climate change to destroy inhabited places. Climate impact science and the media share a panoptic gaze on atoll islands seeing them as being small, inert and passive in the face of rising seas. The focus in these accounts is on the power of water as the agent of destruction, while the agency of the assemblage of human and non‐human actors that is the (is)land itself is ignored. Thus, atolls are said to be vulnerable, and the prevailing ideas of adaptation are either international relocation to avoid the sea or seawalls to contain it. Based on qualitative field research in Pacific atolls, this paper examines the connections between island peoples and their terrestrial environments, and the work that they are doing in response to the impacts of climate change. It shows how land is conceived symbolically, socio‐culturally and legally, and considers its role in sustaining livelihoods and anchoring identities through a changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We reviewed studies addressing the extent to which more integrated agricultural systems ( IAS) have been found to be more resilient to climate variability and climate change than more specialized agricultural systems. We found limited literature directly addressing the topic, necessitating the use of proxy measures to enlarge the sample. Where necessary, we used agricultural system richness and diversity as proxies for the presence of the sort of synergistic relationships that typify IAS, interannual climate variability for climate change, and myriad agricultural indicators for resilience. We found that (1) 37 papers addressed the topic either through mathematical modeling or statistical modeling; (2) in the statistical papers, integration was overwhelmingly ( n = 17/24) associated with increased climate resilience; (3) these findings stemmed mainly from comparisons of more versus less diverse or rich farming systems, while few studies investigated the influence of farm system synergies on resilience; (4) yield, revenue, profit, and yield variance were all used to demonstrate resilience; (5) modeling studies tended to investigate resilience across multiple years, while most statistical approaches tracked single-year outcomes; (6) the IAS-climate resilience links demonstrated were not generalizable across units of analysis, spatiotemporal scale, and from autonomous to directed integration; and (7) few of the articles reviewed identified and measured the mechanism by which IAS were shown to have conferred resilience. Our findings reveal suggestive, although by no means conclusive, evidence that farm system integration can enhance resilience and highlight the need for research to test whether integration policies can have similar outcomes. WIREs Clim Change 2017, 8:e461. doi: 10.1002/wcc.461 For further resources related to this article, please visit the . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The tropics are expanding poleward at an alarming rate-with massive implications for societies, economies, and natural environments. This expansion appears to be determined largely by anthropogenic drivers-notably rises in greenhouse gases. Of greatest concern is the poleward shift of the dry sub-tropical zone into highly populated regions that have generally enjoyed a more temperate climate. While the effects of latitudinal shifts of climate zones will be most severe in temperate regions outside the tropics, there will also be significant changes in climate within the tropics-notably unprecedented thermal conditions for hundreds of millions of people, along with projections for more extreme weather events. Australia's geographical location makes it particularly vulnerable to an expanding tropics. As the tropics expand poleward, more of southern Australia will be influenced by the dry sub-tropical zone and associated reductions in winter rainfall. These drying trends are projected to continue over most southern parts of Australia this century, accompanied by rising temperatures and more hot days. Future rainfall trends for northern Australia remain uncertain, but there is an expected significant increase in the number of hot days, together with more extreme weather events. Future climate change in northern Australia has been ignored by the White Paper for the Development of Northern Australia (2015), bringing into serious question the feasibility and affordability of many of the development policies, plans, and projects promulgated in the White Paper. Even without climate change, the north faces many significant environmental and economic challenges for its future development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is now widely recognized that climate change affects multiple sectors in virtually every part of the world. Impacts on one sector may influence other sectors, including seemingly remote ones, which we call "interconnections of climate risks." While a substantial number of climate risks are identified in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report, there have been few attempts to explore the interconnections between them in a comprehensive way. To fill this gap, we developed a methodology for visualizing climate risks and their interconnections based on a literature survey. Our visualizations highlight the need to address climate risk interconnections in impact and vulnerability studies. Our risk maps and flowcharts show how changes in climate impact natural and socioeconomic systems, ultimately affecting human security, health, and well‐being. We tested our visualization approach with potential users and identified likely benefits and issues. Our methodology can be used as a communication tool to inform decision makers, stakeholders, and the general public of the cascading risks that can be triggered by climate change. Plain Language Summary: The paper demonstrates in a most holistic manner how climate change can generate various risks and how they are actually interconnected. Based on a literature survey using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report, we identified 91 climate risks and 253 causal relationships among them and graphically drew such interconnected risks. We found that changes in the climate system impact the natural and socioeconomic system, influencing ultimately human security, health, and well‐being. This indicates that climate change can trigger a cascade of impacts across sectors. Our findings point to the need to address the climate risk interconnections in impact and vulnerability studies. We tested our visualization approach with potential users and identified likely benefits and issues. The implications of our study go beyond science. Our study is useful to inform stakeholders of a broad yet fresh perspective of climate risks that have not been presented before. Key Points: The paper developed a methodology for visualizing how climate change can generate various risks and how they can be interconnectedWe identified 91 climate risks and 253 causal relationships among them based on a literature survey and graphically presented the interconnected risksWe found that changes in the climate system impact natural and socioeconomic systems, ultimately influencing human security, health, and well‐being [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The carbon footprint of flying overseas to conferences, meetings, and workshops to share and build knowledge has been increasingly questioned over the last two decades, especially in environmental and climate sciences, due to the related colossal carbon emissions. Here, we infer the value of scientific meetings through the number of publications produced either directly or indirectly after attending a scientific conference, symposium, or workshop (i.e., the conference‐related production) and the number of publications produced per meeting (i.e., the conference‐related productivity) as proxies for the academic value of these meetings, and relate them to both the number of meetings attended and the related carbon emissions. We show that conference‐related production and productivity, respectively, increase and decay with the number of meetings attended, and noticeably that the less productive people exhibit the largest carbon footprint. Taken together, our results imply that a twofold decrease in the carbon footprint FCO2 of a given scientist would result in a twofold increase in productivity through a fivefold decrease in the number of meeting attended. In light of these figures, we call for both the implementation of objective and quantitative criteria related to the optimum number of conferences to attend in an effort to maximize scientific productivity while minimizing the related carbon footprint, and the development of a rationale to minimize the carbon emission related to scientific activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, numerous studies have investigated the relationship of extreme precipitation intensities with temperature derived from a binning method using present‐day weather data. The aim of this approach is that these dependencies, or so‐called apparent scaling rates, provide insights on how precipitation extremes could evolve in the future climate. In a recent paper, Bao et al. showed that there is a large discrepancy between the present‐day apparent scaling rates—showing a negative dependency of daily rainfall extremes on temperature for Darwin—and the climate change response showing a substantial increase in daily rainfall extremes. Their results provide compelling evidence that it may not be straightforward to predict the climate change response from the temperature scaling. We agree with this statement, but disagree with the physical explanation put forward in that study and think that moisture limitations are the most likely cause. Therefore, we advocate the use of dew point temperatures in scaling studies as a much more direct proxy of the absolute humidity of the air in which precipitation extremes develop, which we think is physically more consistent with the underlying mechanism causing the increase in precipitation extremes with global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Notions of 'co-production' are growing in popularity in social science and humanities research on climate change, although there is some ambiguity about the meanings of the term and how it is being used. It is time to critically and reflexively take stock of this expanding area of scholarship. A comprehensive review of over 130 scientific publications first mapped the scholars using co-production, relative to characteristics like their discipline, nationality, and research themes. Second, it looked at how this diversity of scientific perspectives has opened up a multiplicity of meanings of co-production. While most discussions of co-production stop at a basic distinction between descriptive and normative uses of the term, this review unpacked eight conceptual lenses on co-production, each discernible by its particular emphases, academic traditions, logic, and criteria of success. There are two important implications of this work. On one hand, it urges self-reflexive transparency when using co-production concepts. The multiple meanings attached to co-production add richness to the concept and open it up to different uses. However, it is important that scholars clearly communicate how they use the term and are mindful of what they 'buy into' by using the concept in certain ways. On the other hand, there are tensions between the different perspectives as well as opportunities for combining them into a compound concept of co-production. In this way, co-production is reconceptualized as a prism, where each aspect allows different but complimentary insights on the relationship between science, society, and nature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drawing from theory on the "co-production" of science and society, this paper provides an account of trajectories in US climatology, roughly from the 1850s to 1920, the period during which climatology emerged as an organized branch of meteorology and government administration. The historical narrative traces the development of climatology both as a professional/institutional project and as a component of a larger governmental logic. Historical analysis of climatologists' scientific texts, maps, and social organization within government provides a sociological explanation for the emergent "stabilization" of climate as a geographic-statistical category. Climatic stability, defined by the view that climate is unchanging, was advanced over this period in a way that linked the interests and practices of climatologists to actors invested in facilitating and administrating commercial agriculture and trade. I position the logic of climatology and the discourse of climatic stability historically, with reference to prior concern with climate change and, in recent decades, efforts to govern global warming through geoengineering climatic stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change poses worldwide challenges, perhaps most in coastal areas. Governments on different scales respond with planning and policy measures, many with drastic impact. In this paper we assess the role of cultural heritage in planning for climate change on the former island Goeree‐Overflakkee in the Netherlands. We do so by exploring the theoretical discourse on the nexus of climate change and heritage discourses and relating these to an analysis of mitigation and adaptation measures on the island of Goeree‐Overflakkee in the Dutch river delta. It appears that the scale and political urgency of climate change induces involvement of many different governments, resulting in an inconsistent integration of cultural heritage in these plans and policies. These outcomes demonstrate that in order to integrate heritage in climate adaptation and mitigation planning, governments cannot rely on established planning traditions for other spatial challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Key Points: Despite improvements to better characterize risk in climate assessments, scientists' certainty in findings is often misinterpretedU.S. climate assessments often report high confidence and likelihood findings and rarely report low certainty, potentially severe impactsAlternative representations of calibrated language may alleviate confusion caused by the common use of colloquial likelihood terms The use of calibrated language in climate assessments has evolved over time and is an important tool for better characterizing climate risk. Despite improvements in communication, likelihood and confidence terms continue to be misinterpreted by nontechnical audiences. Public understanding of scientific certainty in climate impacts, particularly at the extreme tails of likelihood distribution, is inadequate. This study evaluates the use of calibrated language in the four most recent U.S. climate assessments. Across the assessments, there is inconsistent use, definition, location, and formatting designating a term as calibrated. Authors include additional, undefined certainty categories bridging qualitative confidence categories (e.g., "medium to high") and likelihood terms with no associated statistical value (e.g., "highly likely"). Confidence and likelihood levels are more frequently reported for terms at the high end of certainty distributions, with at least 70% of all instances of confidence terms reporting high or very high confidence in three of the assessments. Almost all (>98%) likelihood language reported is in the likely (>66%) category or above and no likelihood terms below 50% are reported in any of the assessment's Key Messages. There is significant room for improvement in the representation of likelihood, as the word "likely" is frequently used with ambiguous intent; at least half of all instances of likelihood terms are used with noncalibrated, potentially colloquial intent in three of the assessments. The study concludes with a set of recommendations for improving the use of calibrated language and communication of risk in the development of future assessment products. Plain Language Summary: It is important for scientists to describe how certain they are about climate change science so that people can make informed decisions about how to reduce greenhouse gas emissions or prepare for climate impacts. Scientists who evaluate and summarize key findings from a broad review of climate change literature describe their certainty in these findings in scientific assessments using calibrated language. Calibrated language uses specific terminology to express varying degrees of confidence in a statement and how statistically likely an effect or impact is to occur. However, many people outside scientific fields are unfamiliar with calibrated language and often misinterpret their meaning. This study identifies three issues with how calibrated language is used in U.S. climate assessments. First, there is inconsistent use of calibrated language across reports, with authors sometimes using terms that are not defined. Second, these reports focus on findings with high confidence and high likelihood, potentially leaving out information on low probability but highly dangerous impacts. Finally, use of likelihood terms is particularly problematic because the word "likely" is commonly used as part of everyday conversation and different people assign different definitions to it based on their own language, culture, or field of work. It is therefore hard for readers to know, when they come across the word "likely," whether that word is meant colloquially or whether it has a specific statistical definition associated with it. This paper suggests some ways in which future U.S. climate assessments can be improved to address these three issues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the business environmental literature and system dynamics, this paper develops a simulation model for managing the business risks derived from climate change. In particular, the purpose of this paper is to transform the valuable findings from the literature regarding climate change and corporate implications into an effective business management model with a broad applicability, regardless of the size of the business or the sector in which it operates. A methodology consistent with the basic principles of the system dynamic modeling process is developed, and a case study is designed to determine the level of completeness of the simulation model and its ability to address different aspects of business performance. To do so, three different scenarios have been simulated to analyze the reactive, proactive and inactive stance of managers against climate change risks. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Local climate governance has become a key focus of the climate change agenda. Much research has been conducted on the topic in northern countries, but more research is needed in the South, where local governments often are less equipped to deal with challenges associated with climate change. This paper discusses different forms of local climate governance, with a specific focus on the relevance of networks. Local climate governance in eThekwini Municipality, South Africa, is used as a case study, particularly focusing on a campaign that was implemented in 2011 before the international climate conference (COP17). The modes of governing in eThekwini are considered through a framework of local climate governing and identified mainly as self-governing and governing through enabling, the campaign being an example of the latter. The campaign also exemplifies how network governance can shape climate policy and significantly alter a project from initiation to implementation. While networks can contribute to improved communication and information exchange, there may be an inherent risk of private partners having a perverse incentive against implementing effective climate policies due to their own interests in maintaining current structures. It is not clear whether the change from regulative governance to governing by enabling will lead to more effective climate policies in the longer term. More research is required to determine this. While this study is too small to make broader generalizations, it does provide insight into how the introduction of network governance may impact climate governance at the local level in the South. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates whether and under what conditions a binding climate treaty can affect our individual moral obligations. Walter Sinnott-Armstrong has argued that our sole moral obligation regarding climate change is to develop something like a binding treaty. On such an understanding, a binding agreement of the right type would absolve individuals of any further moral responsibilities to reduce carbon emissions. However, while something like this may be true in ideal circumstances of strict compliance, this paper argues that this is not the case in nonideal circumstances of partial compliance. The paper will proceed, first, by outlining the distinction between constitutive and nonconstitutive rules, or practice and summary rules, in Rawlsian terminology. I will then suggest that climate treaties, under the right circumstances, could fulfill the role of a practice with constitutive rules. If this is right, then the binding or nonbinding nature of a treaty (as well as the content of the treaty itself) could make it such that, under ideal circumstances, individuals have no obligation to reduce their carbon output beyond the requirements of the treaty. However, in the nonideal conditions of the actual world, the absence of full compliance to such institutions results in individual actions being subject to strict moral obligations. Consequently, it is in an individual's interest to enact such a binding treaty, at least insofar as they are at least somewhat concerned with fulfilling their moral obligations and would like to reduce the burdens of doing so. WIREs Clim Change 2017, 8:e459. doi: 10.1002/wcc.459 For further resources related to this article, please visit the . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the mid-2000s, several highly-cited papers called for improving conceptual coherence and methodological transparency in vulnerability research to support greater policy relevance. As reducing vulnerability rises on political agendas, identifying empirically validated measures will become increasingly important in the design and evaluation of multi-site and multi-scale programmatic interventions. Using a systematic review methodology, we analyze the current range of conceptual frameworks, operationalizations and research methodologies as used in empirical studies of local-level vulnerability in agricultural settings. Detailed analysis of theories and methods provides a platform for moving toward reporting that supports valid comparisons between disparate studies. This in turn, enables the design and implementation of empirically-informed programmatic interventions. The results show that earlier concerns remain relevant. Even the best reported cases do not support aggregated analysis because conceptual ambiguity and methodological heterogeneity renders each study effectively unique. While conceptualization is broadly consolidating around the IPCC framework, declaration of that framework does not predict consistent operationalization. Furthermore, emerging alternative frameworks, especially Vulnerability as Expected Poverty, reveal important limitations of the IPCC framework. Findings also highlight that reporting practices in vulnerability research perpetuate problematic ambiguity. When designing and reporting research, we recommend addressing six key questions that can help specify the objectives of the study: (1) Is this system vulnerable? (2) To what is this system vulnerable? (3) How vulnerable is this system? (4)What is causing this system to be vulnerable? (5) How is vulnerability distributed within the system? (6) What is causing the observed distribution of vulnerability within the system? WIREs Clim Change 2017, 8:e464. doi: 10.1002/wcc.464 For further resources related to this article, please visit the . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the advent of climate change as a major challenge of our time, Earth system modeling has become highly policy‐relevant regulatory science. In this situation, the social mechanisms that play a role in any scientific endeavor become particularly exposed. By discussing historical, philosophical, and sociological (HPS) aspects of the field's current "cultures of prediction" together with the physical science community in a physical science journal, we aim to provide an entry point into HPS reasoning for climate scientists interested in reflecting on their field and science in general. This paper, first, introduces our perspective on "science as culture" and climate modeling as "regulatory science" and, second, highlights and connects relevant ideas from the three commentaries that follow it. In so doing, we hope to give a fuller picture of climate science, the interplay it engenders between HPS and the physical sciences, the distinctions that it gives rise to as compared to some of the more traditional, exact, sciences in which it is rooted and its place in society including its role in scientific policy advice. Key Points: With the advent of climate change as a major challenge of our time, Earth system modeling has become highly policy relevantIn this situation, the social mechanisms that play a role in any scientific endeavor become particularly exposedThis paper introduces perspectives on "science as culture" and highlights relevant ideas from the three subsequent commentaries [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Microbursts are meteorological phenomena in the lower troposphere which can produce damaging surface winds and pose a severe risk to aircraft flying close to the ground. As these events usually span less than 4 km and 15 min, the spatiotemporal resolution is a challenge for numerical simulations. Although research of microburst using operative mesoscale models is scarce, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been used in the diagnosis of this phenomenon. In this paper, such model is used to simulate several microburst conducive days using two different boundary conditions. The energy spectra of the simulations are computed to evaluate the effective resolution of the model. The results are in line with previous studies and produce no notable differences among the boundary conditions. Nonetheless, the energy spectra show an overenergetic troposphere at microscale resolutions, rendering the effective resolution inadequate for microburst forecasting using the simulated physics variables. Thus, mesoscale indices are analyzed as a prognostic tool. The wind index, the wet microburst severity index and the microburst windspeed potential index do not show high forecasting performances, even though improving the results of climatology. Also, notable differences among the boundary conditions can be seen. The most consistent results are achieved by the wet microburst severity index. Key Points: The WRF model shows an unrealistic energy spectrum when microscale spatial resolutions are usedThe effective resolution of the simulations casts doubts over the ability to forecast microburstsWINDEX, WMSI, and MWPI microburst indices show better forecasting performance than climatology, despite being suboptimal in general terms [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) acts as a key source of multidecadal variability and plays an important role in climate change in many regions of the Northern Hemisphere, resulting in great social and economic impacts. This paper shows that, since the late 19th century, the AMV has experienced a significant increasing trend. The AMV intensified at a rate of 0.0040°C per decade from 1870 to 2014, which is statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. The AMV teleconnects the amplified signal from the North Atlantic across the Eurasian continent to North America through a circumglobal teleconnection pattern, which further intensifies the regional climate variability and climate extremes in North Africa, Europe, East Asia, and North America. Results from the single‐forcing and all‐but‐one‐forcing experiments of the Community Earth System Model, version 1, indicate that anthropogenic aerosol emissions have played a more important role in the AMV intensification compared to other external forcings, especially during the period from the 1900s to 1990s. Key Points: The AMV has experienced a significant increasing trendThe intensified AMV has amplified the regional climate variability and climate extremes in the Northern HemisphereAnthropogenic aerosol emissions have played an important role in the AMV intensification [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With climate change impacting systems globally at alarming rates, the need for educating the next generation of environmental stewards is necessary. The Rocky Mountain Sustainability and Science Network (RMSSN) is an immersive field experience for undergraduate and graduate students interested in climate change and sustainability within National Parks. The program was established to educate and cultivate a diverse audience of future leaders, environmental guardians, and sustainability advocates with a focus on engaging underrepresented minorities (URM) in science. Participants were evaluated through efficacy instruments and focus groups to determine how a short‐term research experience could impact a student's future outlook and perceived ability to impact science and sustainability. Findings indicate URM, and majority students were more confident in their abilities, and more motivated to continue within their studies. RMSSN provides a framework that is translatable to other field‐based curriculums. This paper addresses specific engagement mechanisms for educating future science leaders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tidal motion of oceanic salt water through the ambient geomagnetic field induces periodic electromagnetic field signals. Amplitudes of the induced signals are sensitive to variations in electrical seawater conductivity and, consequently, to changes in oceanic temperature and salinity. In this paper, we computed and analyzed time series of global ocean tide‐induced magnetic field amplitudes. For this purpose, we combined data of global in situ observations of oceanic temperature and salinity fields from 1990–2016 with data of oceanic tidal flow, the geomagnetic field, mantle conductivity, and sediment conductance to derive ocean tide‐induced magnetic field amplitudes. The results were used to compare present day developments in the oceanic climate with two existing climate model scenarios, namely, global oceanic warming and Greenland glacial melting. Model fits of linear and quadratic long‐term trends of the derived magnetic field amplitudes show indications for both scenarios. Also, we find that magnetic field amplitude anomalies caused by oceanic seasonal variability and oceanic climate variations are 10 times larger in shallow ocean regions than in the open ocean. Consequently, changes in the oceanic and therefore the Earth's climate system will be observed first in shelf regions. In other words, climate variations of ocean tide‐induced magnetic field amplitudes are best observed in shallow ocean regions using targeted monitoring techniques. Key Points: Magnetic signals estimated from in situ temperature and salinity observations correlate well with oceanic heat content variationsThe derived magnetic field amplitude and ocean heat content trends match the expectations of previous studiesVariations in oceanic tidal magnetic fields are largest in shelf regions, which allow a targeted monitoring of oceanic climate there [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate models struggle to produce sea surface temperature (SST) gradient trends in the tropical Pacific comparable to those seen recently in nature. Here, we find that the magnitude of the cloud‐SST feedback in the subtropical Southeast Pacific is correlated across models with the magnitude of Eastern Pacific multi‐decadal SST variability. A heat‐budget analysis reveals coupling between cloud‐radiative effects, circulation, and SST gradients in driving multi‐decadal variability in the Eastern Pacific. Using this relationship and observed feedback estimates, we find that internal Eastern Pacific SST variability is underestimated in most models. Adjusting for model bias increases the likelihood of generating a cooling trend at least as large as observations in preindustrial control simulations by ∼ ${\sim} $56% on average. If models underestimate climate "noise," as our results suggest, this bias should be accounted for when attributing the relative importance of forced versus unforced changes in the climate. Plain Language Summary: In recent decades, observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have cooled in the eastern tropical Pacific and warmed in the western tropical Pacific. Historical simulations using state‐of‐the‐art climate models fail to reproduce this pattern. We find that the feedback between low‐lying clouds and SSTs is related to the magnitude of naturally occurring SST variability in the Southeast Pacific. On average, climate models that have too weak a cloud‐SST feedback in the Southeast Pacific underestimate the likelihood of multi‐decadal cooling in the eastern Pacific in preindustrial simulations. Our results suggest that biases in cloud feedbacks may be causing models to underestimate internal SST variability. Key Points: Multi‐decadal Southeast Pacific sea surface temperature trends are related to the strength of the subtropical cloud feedbackCloud radiative effects amplify multi‐decadal Pacific sea surface temperature trends by impacting circulation and surface energy fluxesCorrecting model biases in cloud feedback raises the likelihood of internally producing Southeast Pacific cooling as large as observations [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Terrestrial, aquatic, and marine ecosystems regulate climate at local to global scales through exchanges of energy and matter with the atmosphere and assist with climate change mitigation through nature‐based climate solutions. Climate science is no longer a study of the physics of the atmosphere and oceans, but also the ecology of the biosphere. This is the promise of Earth system science: to transcend academic disciplines to enable study of the interacting physics, chemistry, and biology of the planet. However, long‐standing tension in protecting, restoring, and managing forest ecosystems to purposely improve climate evidences the difficulties of interdisciplinary science. For four centuries, forest management for climate betterment was argued, legislated, and ultimately dismissed, when nineteenth century atmospheric scientists narrowly defined climate science to the exclusion of ecology. Today's Earth system science, with its roots in global models of climate, unfolds in similar ways to the past. With Earth system models, geoscientists are again defining the ecology of the Earth system. Here we reframe Earth system science so that the biosphere and its ecology are equally integrated with the fluid Earth to enable Earth system prediction for planetary stewardship. Central to this is the need to overcome an intellectual heritage to the models that elevates geoscience and marginalizes ecology and local land knowledge. The call for kilometer‐scale atmospheric and ocean models, without concomitant scientific and computational investment in the land and biosphere, perpetuates the geophysical view of Earth and will not fully provide the comprehensive actionable information needed for a changing climate. Plain Language Summary: Terrestrial ecosystems provide a natural solution to planetary warming by storing carbon, dissipating surface heating through evapotranspiration, and other processes. That forests, in particular, influence climate is a centuries‐old premise, but its potential for planetary stewardship has not been realized. In an acrimonious controversy spanning several centuries, managing forests to purposely change climate was advocated, legislated, and resoundingly dismissed as unscientific. Similar intellectual bias is evident in today's Earth system science and the associated Earth system models, which are the state‐of‐the‐art models used to inform climate policy. The popular characterization of Earth system science lauds its interdisciplinary melding of physics, chemistry, and biology, but the models emphasize the physics and fluid dynamics of the atmosphere and oceans and present a limited perspective of terrestrial ecosystems in the Earth system. Ecologists studying the living world increasingly have a voice in Earth system science as we move beyond the physical basis for climate change to Earth system prediction for planetary stewardship. As we once again look to forests to solve a climate problem, we must surmount the disciplinary narrowness that failed to answer the forest‐climate question in the past and that continues to limit the interdisciplinary potential of Earth system science. Key Points: Nature‐based climate solutions have been advocated for centuries, but have been distorted by academic bias and colonialist prejudiceEarth system science, while recognizing the climate services of the biosphere, has a geophysical bias in interdisciplinary collaborationTo realize the potential for planetary stewardship, Earth system models must embrace the living world equally with the fluid world [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stock‐and‐flow simulation tools, which provide experiences of cause‐and‐effect relationships, are likely to be effective ways to overcome climate misconceptions. However, little is known about the ability of simulation tools to enable the transfer of system dynamics knowledge to subsequent tasks. The primary objective of this research was to use stronger transfer problems in simulation tools and to test the resulting transfer of knowledge. In an experiment, 120 participants were randomly assigned to problems that varied in the use of a stock‐and‐flow simulation tool, Dynamic Climate Change Simulator (DCCS); and, a subsequent paper‐and‐pencil Climate Stabilization (CS) task. Climate misconceptions reduced significantly in the following CS task across problems where the stock behavior was either identical or different between DCCS and CS tasks. Playing DCCS helped people to transfer their system dynamics knowledge to the CS task. We discuss the advantages of using stock‐and‐flow simulation tools for climate education and policy research. © 2019 System Dynamics Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The assessment and implementation of structural or financial instruments for climate risk mitigation requires projections of future climate risk over the operational life of each proposed instrument. A point often neglected in the climate adaptation literature is that the physical sources of predictability differ between projects with long and short planning periods: While historical and paleo climate records emphasize low‐frequency modes of variability, anthropogenic climate change is expected to alter their occurrence at longer time scales. In this paper we present a set of stylized experiments to assess the uncertainties and biases involved in estimating future climate risk over a finite future period, given a limited observational record. These experiments consider both quasi‐periodic and secular change for the underlying risk, as well as statistical models for estimating this risk from an N‐year historical record. The uncertainty of IPCC‐like future scenarios is considered through an equivalent sample size N. The relative importance of estimating short‐ or long‐term risk depends on the investment life M. Shorter design lives are preferred for situations where interannual to decadal variability can be successfully identified and predicted, highlighting the importance of sequential investment strategies for adaptation. Key Points: Quasi‐periodic and secular climate signals, with different identifiability and predictability, control future uncertainty and riskAdaptation strategies must consider how uncertainties in risk projections influence success of decision pathwaysStylized experiments reveal how bias and variance of climate risk projections influence risk mitigation over a finite planning period [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change adaptation strategies that aim to minimize harm and maximize benefits related to climate change impacts have mushroomed at all levels of government in recent years. While many studies have explored barriers that stand in the way of their implementation, the factors determining their potential to mainstream adaptation into various sectors are less clear. In the present paper, we aim to address this gap for two international, six national, and six local adaptation strategies. Based on document analyses and 35 semi‐structured interviews, the 14 case studies also explore in how far the factors facilitating climate change adaptation are similar across levels of government or level‐specific. Although located at three different levels of government, we find that the 14 adaptation strategies analyzed here represent "one‐size‐fits‐all governance arrangements" that are characterized by voluntariness and a lack institutionalization. Since adaptation strategies are relatively weak coordination hubs that are unable to force adaptation onto sectoral policy agendas, they rely mainly on sectoral self‐interest in adapting to climate change, largely determined by problem pressure. We conclude that one‐size‐fits‐all governance arrangements are rarely adequate responses to complex challenges, such as climate change. Although climate change adaptation depends more on framework conditions such as problem pressure than on administrative or governance features, the findings presented here can help to understand under what circumstances adaptation is likely to make progress. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vb cyclones typically emerge in the Western Mediterranean and propagate to the Northeast into Central Europe. This paper explores the temporal characteristics of Vb cyclone occurrence based on cyclone tracks identified at the atmospheric levels of Z700 and sea level pressure, using JRA‐55 reanalysis data for the period 1959–2015. The risk of Vb occurrence was significantly high in the 1960s and has remained at a lower level since then. Vb cyclones do not occur fully randomly according to a Poisson point process. Eleven well‐separated and distinct clusters as well as 11 hiatus periods are identified, with average occurrence rates of 21.5 and 5.2 yrea−1, respectively. During the event of Vb, the large‐scale atmospheric circulation is changed into a state favoring the development of successive Vb cyclones. Clustering is very prominent in the case of Genoan Vb cyclones in summer as well as those Vb cyclones developing over the Iberian Peninsula or the North African Coast in winter. Superposition of the polar and the subtropical jet stream over the Western Mediterranean is identified as a main feature at the onset of Vb cyclones. Vb cyclone occurrence appears to be synchronized with the Northern Atlantic Oscillation (NAO; at Z500) and Arctic Oscillation (AO; at Z1000). Clusters have occurred when both NAO and AO were negative. This relation applies to Western Mediterranean cyclones not following a Vb track as well, however to a much weaker extent. In contrast, Vb cyclone frequency was particularly low from 1988 to 1997 during a sustained positive phase of both NAO and AO. Key Points: In the past 50 years, the frequency of Vb cyclones was high in the 1960s and lower since thenVb cyclones were strongly synchronized with NAO and AO; high frequency clusters occurred when NAO and AO were negativeThe coupling of the polar and the subtropical jet stream over the Western Mediterranean is a driving mechanism of the onset of Vb cyclones [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the shaping of Bangladesh's southern coastal region, often framed as the most climate vulnerable place in the world, as a zone of climate crisis. As rising waters threaten communities inhabiting the low‐lying coastal islands scattered across the deltaic plain, many within the government and donor community have identified shrimp aquaculture as a principal adaptation strategy. Shrimp aquaculture is integral to the dynamics of what I call anticipatory ruination, a discursive and material process of social and ecological destruction in anticipation of real or perceived threats. I elaborate anticipatory ruination as a process that both responds to and produces Bangladesh's climate crisis. I use this concept to explore not only the dynamics taking place in Bangladesh's delta region, but also the ways in which climate crisis is constituted more broadly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper compares extreme value statistics of daily maximum 10 m wind speed in winter simulated by the regional climate model COSMO‐CLM at a horizontal resolution of 15 km (C15) with the reanalyses ERA‐Interim and Arctic System reanalysis (ASR version 1 and 2) and with a satellite data set (CCMPv2). Our C15 simulation (1979/1980–2015/2016, November–April) is thereby the longest high‐resolution simulation available for the Arctic. The results show that the extreme wind speeds tend to increase over the ocean with increasing the horizontal model resolution. A horizontal resolution of ≤15 km is required to sufficiently capture all extreme wind characteristics, in particular for the tip jets and barrier winds over the Irminger Sea and in the Denmark Strait, and for the low‐level jets in the Nares Strait. Of almost equal importance are physical parameterizations of surface fluxes and of turbulence. Capturing extreme wind characteristics has a direct effect on climate relevant air–ice–ocean interactions, such as triggering open‐ocean deep convection, polynya dynamics, or on the sea ice and freshwater balance of the Arctic. State‐of‐the‐art global climate models and reanalyses (e.g., ERA‐Interim) underestimate the extreme near‐surface wind speeds in the Arctic and around Greenland. Regional climate models, for example, ASR/WRF or COSMO‐CLM, resolve the mesoscale wind systems that frequently produce extreme winds, which we estimated i.a. as 10‐year return levels (see the figure). Capturing extreme wind characteristics has a direct effect on climate relevant air–ice–ocean interactions, such as triggering open‐ocean deep convection, polynya dynamics, or on the sea ice and freshwater balance of the Arctic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we analyse the relationship between the mean and extreme precipitation for five stations in Hungary and the circulation types at the 500 hPa level, for a 52‐year period, 1958–2010. We used daily rainfall data for each station and a calendar of the daily circulation types at the 500 hPa geopotential height for Hungary based on an automatic classification scheme. A trend analysis showed that, in general, the mean and extreme precipitation rarely exhibit significant trends, similarly to previous studies. The only exception was found for the number of annual and summer rainy days in Budapest with significant negative trends (p = .05), as well as the number of days with rainfall amounts greater than the 95% probability level for Debrecen with a significant positive trend. It was found that the circulation types that are mainly responsible for the largest precipitation amounts overall show (in some cases significant) negative trends, as well as the precipitation amounts that are associated with them (Cwsw, Cse, Cwnw). In most cases, the circulation types that are prevailing during the extreme precipitation events are associated with western or almost‐western atmospheric circulations (Cwsw, Ase) and Mediterranean‐ or Atlantic‐origin depressions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies have reported that much of the surface wind speed (SWS) over the mid‐latitudes of the northern hemisphere has declined. However, very few studies have investigated the relatively recent phenomenon of wind recovery. Based on 68 wind data series, this paper examines changes in wind speed in northwest China between 1969 and 2015. In 1992, following a decade of sharply decreasing at a rate of 0.036 m s−1 a−1 (p < .05), the SWS began to significant increase at a rate of 0.004 m s−1 a−1. The specific reasons for this increase are as follows: (a) The decrease in SWS during the pre‐1992 slowdown period is the result of declining wind speeds in spring and summer, whereas increases in wind speed during the post‐1992 recovery period are caused by increased wind in winter. (b) The number of days featuring strongly varying wind speeds has changed. Specifically, the number of days above 2 m s−1 all show a significant decreasing trend from 1969 to 1992, whereas the number of days of 1–3 m s−1 shows a significant upward trend from 1993 to 2015. (c) Stations located between 1,000 and 1,500 m.a.s.l. (meter above sea level) are more sensitive to climate change than those at other altitudes, which shows the biggest decline (increase) trend during wind speed slowdown (recovery) period. These stations could potentially act as climatic indicators to predict future wind speed changes. SWS in northwest China have been affected by changes both in large‐scale atmospheric circulation and in regional warming. Surface pressure gradient variations between high‐ and low‐latitude regions may be important contributors to wind speed changes under asymmetric warming. However, urbanization is only moderately responsible for trend changes in SWS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: To better understand the potential effects of climate change on atmospheric dynamics, this paper studies Rossby wave breaking and isentropic stratosphere‐troposphere exchange (STE) in the Northern Hemisphere between 320 and 380 K during 1981–2015 using the Modern‐Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Application version 2 data. The isentropic STE is estimated using Contour Advection. Our results show that anticyclonic wave breaking events have become more frequent, especially in summer at higher isentropic surfaces, and cyclonic wave breaking events have become less frequent at 320 K. The anticyclonic wave breaking has shifted poleward in summer. The isentropic STE is found to be strongest over the regions where Rossby wave breaking activities are most frequent. Both isentropic STE and Rossby wave breaking are shown to be strongest in summer and weakest in winter. Our results do not show any discernable trends during isentropic STE during 1981–2015. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper looks at the way policy entrepreneurs construct horizontal coherence through problem definition and the promotion of policy frames that bond different objectives and instruments together. Building on the case of the 2009 climate and energy package, the paper analyses how the European Commission and successive European Union Presidencies exploited a growing climate change momentum to devise, assemble and facilitate the adoption in an exceptionally short period of an ambitious legislative package cutting across traditional sectoral boundaries. The recourse to a narrative presenting Europe at the vanguard of a green revolution and the framing of European internal policies as a tool for international climate leadership were instrumental in constructing the package as a coherent response to the joint energy and climate change challenges, and in rallying wide support. However, the paper shows that the institutionalization of this framing has been undermined by the economic crisis and stalled international negotiations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Information on the response of vegetation to different environmental drivers, including rainfall, forms a critical input to ecosystem models. Currently, such models are run based on parameters that, in some cases, are either assumed or lack supporting evidence (e.g., that vegetation growth across Africa is rainfall‐driven). A limited number of studies have reported that the onset of rain across Africa does not fully explain the onset of vegetation growth, for example, drawing on the observation of prerain flush effects in some parts of Africa. The spatial extent of this prerain green‐up effect, however, remains unknown, leaving a large gap in our understanding that may bias ecosystem modelling. This paper provides the most comprehensive spatial assessment to‐date of the magnitude and frequency of the different patterns of phenology response to rainfall across Africa and for different vegetation types. To define the relations between phenology and rainfall, we investigated the spatial variation in the difference, in number of days, between the start of rainy season (SRS) and start of vegetation growing season (SOS); and between the end of rainy season (ERS) and end of vegetation growing season (EOS). We reveal a much more extensive spread of prerain green‐up over Africa than previously reported, with prerain green‐up being the norm rather than the exception. We also show the relative sparsity of postrain green‐up, confined largely to the Sudano‐Sahel region. While the prerain green‐up phenomenon is well documented, its large spatial extent was not anticipated. Our results, thus, contrast with the widely held view that rainfall drives the onset and end of the vegetation growing season across Africa. Our findings point to a much more nuanced role of rainfall in Africa's vegetation growth cycle than previously thought, specifically as one of a set of several drivers, with important implications for ecosystem modelling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: What is the relationship between social movements and polycentric governance? The concept of polycentricity has been at the center of recent debates in environmental governance. While most of this work has analyzed polycentric arrangements in relation to collaborative and adaptive governance, some have recently focused on how political conflicts shape these arrangements. In this paper we build on this work through Luther Gerlach's forgotten framework of polycentric social movements to undertake the task of politicizing polycentricity. This task entails expanding the analytical focus of institutional analyses of polycentricity and examining the social group politics of social movements. To this end, we present a case study of the climate justice movement and its relation to climate change governance. We analyze whether and to what extent the movement has embodied polycentric arrangements throughout its history, and to what effects. We show that show that, in seeking to address the multiscalar nature of environmental problems and the limits of existing institutional arrangements, climate justice groups are increasingly organized in a polycentric fashion. Climate justice groups mobilize multiple strands of environmental justice movements from the global North and South, as well as from indigenous and peasant rights movements, and it is organized as a decentralized network of semiautonomous, coordinated units. We find that this strategy generates new opportunities and challenges for the movement, and thus has important implications for its effectiveness in achieving these transformations. Lastly, we find that through these polycentric arrangements, movements such as that for climate justice are able to exert simultaneous influence on multiple sites of environmental governance, from the local to the global, furthering increased polycentricity in formal institutional arrangements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Going Green! Middle Schoolers Out to Save the World project aims to direct middle school students' enthusiasm for hands‐on activities toward interest in science and other STEM areas while guiding them to solve real‐world problems. Students in this project are taught by their teachers to use energy monitoring equipment to audit standby power consumed by electronic devices in their homes and communities. Major findings were: (a) Beliefs in climate change increased more for students in the treatment than comparison group, pre to post; and (b) For girls there was a larger positive impact on climate change beliefs than for boys. These and additional findings presented in this paper provide evidence that a hands‐on engaged‐learning curriculum can have a positive influence on climate change beliefs and intentions and strengthen the association between the two constructs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Communication of climate change (CC) risks is challenging, in particular if global‐scale spatially resolved quantitative information is to be conveyed. Typically, visualization of CC risks, which arise from the combination of hazard, exposure and vulnerability, is confined to showing only the hazards in the form of global thematic maps. This paper explores the potential of contiguous value‐by‐area cartograms, that is, distorted density‐equalizing maps, for improving communication of CC risks and the countries' differentiated responsibilities for CC. Two global‐scale cartogram sets visualize, as an example, groundwater‐related CC risks in 0.5° grid cells, another one the correlation of (cumulative) fossil‐fuel carbon dioxide emissions with the countries' population and gross domestic product. Viewers of the latter set visually recognize the lack of global equity and that the countries' wealth has been built on harmful emissions. I recommend that CC risks are communicated by bivariate gridded cartograms showing the hazard in color and population, or a combination of population and a vulnerability indicator, by distortion of grid cells. Gridded cartograms are also appropriate for visualizing the availability of natural resources to humans. For communicating complex information, sets of cartograms should be carefully designed instead of presenting single cartograms. Inclusion of a conventionally distorted map enhances the viewers' capability to take up the information represented by distortion. Empirical studies about the capability of global cartograms to convey complex information and to trigger moral emotions should be conducted, with a special focus on risk communication. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]