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• We find that financial development reduces growth variability across various horizons, with some signs of heterogeneity and nonlinearity. • Since Burns (1960) many authors drew attention to a trend that macroeconomic volatility has been declining at least from the WW2 and mid-eighties both in US and other countries. • Like some authors, we found evidence of a non-linear relationship (decreasing marginal effect) , although not in every specification and horizon. • Fluctuations in world economic growth have been the most consistent factor amplifying growth fluctuations in individual countries, while institutional development has had a significant dampening effect. • Although there is no single identifiable date for any individual or collective moderation, data from our sample suggest that both average volatility in each period and volatility in most individual economies have been decreasing for at least 40 years. • Estimates of the main equation using five-year data with various specifications show that financial development is significantly associated with decreasing volatility at the relevant p values (Table 3, regression 1 (R1) to regression 8 (R8). • From this level, the financial development index begins to increase growth volatility instead of decreasing it. • On the contrary, the relationship is stronger with a larger coefficient and linearity in reducing volatility. • We find that there is a strong theoretical literature that suggests alternative causes and channels to explain how financial development can help reduce volatility. • As expected from nonlinearity, marginal effects were stronger when we excluded high-income (eurozone) economies. Growth is liked, but volatility is not. Volatility implies uncertainty, as up and down are often large unpredictable fluctuations. In fact, according to the financial literature, people pay a price to reduce it. Some studies found a trend that macroeconomic volatility has been changing and proposed some structural changes that are responsible for its decline. Many studies have found that financial development helps growth. And relatively few studies have shown that financial development also explains structurally varying macroeconomic volatility. In this panel study, we investigated the relationship between financial development and growth volatility using the Financial Development Index with recent data from eighty-six countries. We also looked at its relationship with consumption and investment fluctuations using its sub-indices. The index is the result of many dimensions of financial development such as access and efficiency, not just the size of credit. We find that financial development reduces growth variability across various horizons, with some signs of heterogeneity and nonlinearity. Institutional development (polity index) and volatility in global economic growth are other important consistent variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Both economic growth targets and environmental targets drive green growth. • The two types of targets crowd out each other in driving green growth. • They drive green growth through a shared channel of stimulating green innovation. Stimulating green growth is an important element of China's economic planning. Green growth has dual attributes of greenness and growth, while economic growth targets and environmental targets respond to these two attributes, respectively. Whether the combination of dual targets is more effective than a single target is critical to understanding the dynamics of green development. Although scholars and practitioners have studied government performance targets, we know little about interaction effects of different targets in a multi-target system. This study considers the interaction effects of environmental and economic growth targets on green growth. Using panel data from China's provinces, we find both economic growth and environmental targets can drive green growth. However, these targets crowd out each other in driving green growth, implying a trade-off between economic growth and environmental protection. The crowding-out effect exhibits a clear inverted U-shaped trend influenced by environmental governance and technological support, as it is prominent mainly in provinces with moderate environmental governance and technological support. Furthermore, economic growth targets affect green growth by promoting investment in research and development, while environmental targets drive green growth by promoting industrial agglomeration. Notably, green innovation is a shared channel for both types of targets to influence green growth, making both targets crowd out each other. These findings suggest that we should value synergy between multiple targets in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the trajectory of global income inequality since 1981. Commonly used (relative) definitions indicate a decline in global inequality since the late 1980s. Looking ahead, it has been intuited that the influence of China's economic development—and that of other rapidly growing, populous nations—on the between-country component will, at some juncture, diminish and start to add to global inequality should economic growth persist. Our paper formalizes the turning point of global inequality through a simple model. For illustrative purposes, we empirically present the implications for the timing of the turning point in the context of a weaker post-pandemic growth recovery versus a stronger, albeit improbable, post-pandemic growth recovery. We conclude by arguing that the era of declining global income inequality is likely over, considering the forces influencing both the between-country and within-country components. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prior studies indicate that expanding the length of roadways and railways has a beneficial effect on economic performance. Nevertheless, the requirement for land transport infrastructure, which offers different degrees of accessibility and mobility, to facilitate economic expansion differs based on a country's stage of development. The present study has two objectives. Firstly, it is essential to ascertain the required investment for different types of land transport infrastructure to facilitate different stages of economic performance. Secondly, the objective is to examine the impact of different forms of land transportation infrastructure on economic performance by means of urbanization and exports. To highlight these concerns, a fixed-effects panel linear regression analysis was conducted on a panel consisting of 50 countries spanning the years 1980–2018. In countries with lower levels of urbanization and exports, improvements to road infrastructure, especially roads with high accessibility, are of greater importance for economic performance compared to the improvement of railways. Nevertheless, as urbanization and exports rise, the comparative impact of improvements in road infrastructure on economic performance in relation to improvements in railway infrastructure diminishes. Railway improvements have a more significant effect on economic performance compared to road improvements, owing to increased urbanization and export rates. During these stages of development, high-mobility roads are more crucial for economic performance compared to high-accessibility roads. The conclusion of the research examined a variety of policy recommendations derived from our findings, which are applicable to different levels of urbanization and exports. • Evaluate the economic benefits of various land transportation infrastructure. • Assess the capital needed for various transport infrastructure to help the economy. • Low urbanization and export require high-access roads to boost economy. • High urbanization and export require railways to boost economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the spillover effect of government locations on economic growth by exploring more than 180 relocation events of city governments in China. Empirical results demonstrate that government relocations improve regional economic growth measured by night lights. This positive effect decreases with the distance to city governments' new locations. Government relocations are also found to accelerate urbanization. Potential mechanisms include the changes in land conversion and firm birth patterns in the move-in areas. These results indicate that the relocation of local governments can be an effective place-based policy to improve economic growth and urbanization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We build an endogenous growth model featuring a new mode of human capital accumulation in a data economy. Data are generated as the byproducts of economic activities and then used by consumers for human capital accumulation apart from education. Although we find similar growth patterns compared with those in the related literature, economic growth is further accelerated by the new use of data factor. Quantitative analyses suggest that although the accumulation of human capital is promoted by the increasing importance of data, this promotion is not unlimited since data may over-absorb resources and crowd out education. In the transition dynamics, we see that consumers suffer temporary welfare loss. However, as data become a key factor in human capital accumulation, welfare ultimately increases. Our paper provides a first view of the effect of the data factor in the process of human capital accumulation. • Digital economy promotes economic growth through human capital accumulation. • A model is built to incorporate data into human capital accumulation. • The promotion effect of data on human capital accumulation is not unlimited. • In transition dynamics, consumers may face temporary welfare loss. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Investigation on an asymmetric impact of the informal sector on economic growth. • The informal sector asymmetrically affects the economic growth in Bangladesh. • Urbanization and capital growth contribute to increase economic growth in Bangladesh. • Diminishing the prevalence of informality is suggested for higher economic growth in Bangladesh. The role of the informal sector in economic growth still remains an issue of debate. This study contributes to resolving this by taking into account the asymmetric effect of the informal sector on economic growth. The study applies the Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (N-ARDL) model to capture the asymmetric relationship between the informal sector activity and economic growth for the period 1982–2018 in Bangladesh. The estimation of the N-ARDL model reveals that the informal sector asymmetrically affects the domestic output and economic growth in Bangladesh for both the short-run and the long run. The study has observed an asymmetrically larger effect on output and economic growth from the falling contribution of the informal sector. Urbanization and capital growth also contribute to an increase in economic growth. Therefore, proper incentives and careful policy measures are suggested to effectively diminish the prevalence of informality and promote its transition towards a more formalized framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the moderating role of the macroeconomic environment in the crash risk-policy uncertainty sensitivity. We find that managers have lower risk perception and crash risk is less sensitive to policy uncertainty during periods of economic expansion. Managers' risk perception is the critical channel through which the macroeconomic environment affects the relationship between crash risk and policy uncertainty. Consequently, when firms' managers have an accurate understanding of the future economic environment, the moderating effect of economic growth is lower. This manifests in the weaker moderating effect of economic growth for SOEs and firms with stronger managerial ability, lower managerial ownership, and high media attention, which further supports the risk perception channel. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The financial sector plays a vital role in fostering economic growth, regardless of a nation's development stage. However, East Africa, compared to other regions, faces unique challenges in advancing its financial landscape. While the existing body of research acknowledges the significance of financial development in promoting economic growth, some studies need more regional specificity, focusing on broader frameworks that may neglect specific factors like the quality of institutions within East Africa. This research addresses this gap by investigating the relationship between financial development and economic growth in 18 East African countries from 1995 to 2021. Employing dynamic panel estimation (GMM) to address potential Endogeneity and reverse causality concerns, the study delves into the moderating effect of institutional quality on this relationship. Factors like government stability, rule of law, presence of the military in politics, and corruption control measure institutional quality. Additionally, the study controls for other relevant factors influencing economic growth. Data sourced from reputable international organizations such as the World Bank, International Monetary Fund, and relevant risk assessment institutions serves as the basis for analysis. The findings reveal that the impact of financial development on economic growth in East Africa is multifaceted. While financial development itself demonstrates a positive influence on growth, this effect is significantly amplified in countries with stronger institutional frameworks. This suggests that robust institutions act as a catalyst, maximizing the positive impact of financial development on economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article argues that Croatia's growth over the past two decades is deeply related to the dynamics of international trade. Under the premise that what is bought and sold in global markets reflects the economy's fundamentals, we show that the rate of growth compatible with equilibrium in the balance-of-payments, i.e. the dynamic Harrod trade multiplier, is a good predictor of the country's actual long-run growth rate. For this purpose, we apply a state–space model and the Kalman smoother to obtain time-varying parameter estimates of the exports and imports functions. We use these estimates to investigate the determinants of international non-price competitiveness. Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) and Weighted Average Least Squares (WALS) techniques are combined to tackle model selection uncertainty. It is shown that R&D investments and human capital accumulation are the most important explanatory variables. The success of the European Union's (EU) integration process depends on the capacity of its new members to achieve a balanced-growth path. Being the last country to join the union, the experience of this single country is particularly relevant to understand possible development alternatives for the region. We conclude by highlighting the policy relevance of our findings to the evaluation of Croatia's catching-up performance as part of the EU. • Croatia's growth is deeply related to the dynamics of international trade. • We apply a state–space model to estimate the trade-multiplier for this country. • We show it is a good predictor of the actual long-run growth rate. • Estimates are used to investigate the determinants of international non-price competitiveness. • R&D, human capital, and demography are the most important explanatory variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• During 1993–2018, market services grew at a faster rate than non-market services. • Applying Domar weights we observed that transport and storage was the highest contributor among market services industries, while public administration has made relatively higher contribution to aggregate non-market services TFP growth. • TFP growth in manufacturing has a significant positive effect on TFP growth of both market services and non-market services. • Market services TFP growth is positively impacted by a spillover effect of TFP growth in India's trade partners. The services have been the driver of India's overall growth since the onset of economic reforms in the 1990s. The value-added share of services increased from 41 percent in 1990 to 53 percent in 2018. On average, the sector grew at 7.5 percent annually during 1993–2018, contributing to about half of the aggregate economic growth. Using the India KLEMS data, we examine the trends in total factor productivity (TFP) in individual industries within services and their contribution to aggregate TFP growth in the sector during 1993–2018. We find that transport and storage was the highest contributor among various market services industries followed by financial services, while public administration made a relatively high contribution to aggregate non-market services TFP growth. Moreover, we investigate the factors driving TFP growth in the services sector, particularly the role of manufacturing TFP – looking into spillover effect from manufacturing to market services and non-market services. Our results suggest that TFP growth in manufacturing had a significant positive impact on TFP growth in the services sector. Also, we find evidence of significant productivity spillover effect to India's services sector from other countries, particularly the developed countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we develop a three-period gender-based Overlapping Generations (OLG) model of economic growth for Côte d'Ivoire in which life expectancy is endogenized and the rate of change of the poverty rate is linked to the growth rate of output per capita. We then calibrate the model using the country-specific calibration data to illustrate the role of public policies in the model, and its implications for long-term growth, gender equality, and poverty in Côte d'Ivoire. To this end, we discuss three sets of quantitative experiments: broad-based development policies (increase in education spending and infrastructure investment, and governance reform), gender-based policies (reduction in gender bias in the market place, increase in women's bargaining power, and reduction in family bias against girls' education), and a composite reform program (combination of pro-growth, pro-gender policies). Overall, our findings suggest that Côte d'Ivoire could achieve better growth and poverty outcomes if the country could implement a composite reform program that includes comprehensive development and gender-based policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of the study is to determine the clean energy future based on economic stability in the lines of Strategic Development Goals (SDGs). The Sustainable Growth Goals are an international strategy for guiding countries toward sustainable growth. When developing nations like China achieve one Sustainable Development Goal (SDG), it frequently forces them to make concessions in other areas, threatening sustainability as a whole. The reputable study looked at data from 2000 to 2020. The unit root examination and the generalized technique of moments are employed for inference. Since both energy consumption and energy costs are expected to rise under the growth circumstances, the research concludes that further investment in the energy industry is warranted. There is a trade-off among financial development and ecological sustainability when more money is put into other investments and energy use. The presents multiple policy implications for the associated stakeholders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By representing up to 60.5% of Indonesia's GDP, Micro, Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises (MSMEs) have a major effect on the economic growth of the nation. This study intends to create a model that examines the association between social competence (SC) and Social Media use Intensity for CRM (SMIC) of their impact on business performance satisfaction (BPS) in MSMEs. The study furthermore examines how Social Media Sales Intensity (SMSI) may have an impact on this relationship. The association between SMIC, SC, SMSI, and BPS variables gonna be examined using structural equation modeling (SEM), from an online survey which was given to MSME owners. However, this study doesn't evaluate the model's results, rather it focused solely on describing the model. The analysis will provide beneficial recommendations for MSME owners who want to improve the performance of their businesses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Determination of macroeconomic policies in real-time requires assessing the correct information regarding current economic conditions. This statement spurred researchers to develop methods involving high-frequency data for risk analysis. This paper extends the quarterly growth-at-risk (GaR) approach by involving a machine-learning approach based on the Mixed-Frequency Data Sampling Quantile Regression Neural Network (MIDAS-QRNN) model. This paper shows that the MIDAS-QRNN model has the best prediction accuracy and can show good PDB nowcasting. The monthly financial GaR can detect unusual economic growth movements during the COVID-19 pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article aims to demonstrate how a market exposed to a catastrophic event strives to find a balance between adaptation and mitigation policies through R&D strategies. Our analysis reveals that, within our framework, there exists no trade-off between adaptation and mitigation. Rather, the critical relationship exists between adaptation and pollution because adaptation (wealth accumulation) increases the growth rate of the economy, leading to a higher flow pollution due to the scale effect. We also investigate the long-run effects of pollution taxes on growth rates and the influence of the probability of catastrophic events on these outcomes. Our findings suggest that even with a higher likelihood of catastrophe, the economy can elevate its R&D endeavors, provided that the penalty rate stemming from an abrupt event remains sufficiently high and the economy confronts a risk of a doomsday scenario. Additionally, we illustrate that pollution taxes can foster heightened long-term growth, with the positive effects being more pronounced when the probability of catastrophe is elevated, assuming an adequately substantial penalty rate. Finally, we find that pollution growth can be higher with less polluting inputs due to a scale effect, a phenomenon akin to the Jevons-type paradox. • The article analyzes the impact of the probability of harmful events on the creative destruction rate. • The harmful event probability may enhance economic growth if knowledge accumulation from R&D sufficiently reduces damages. • The effect of a green tax imposed by a regulator on the growth rate is also examined. • Pollution growth can be higher with less polluting inputs due to a scale effect, a phenomenon akin to the Jevons-type paradox. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the relationship among Research and Development (R&D) expenditure, government effectiveness, and voice accountability in 15 Latin American countries. R&D expenditure is a crucial driver of innovation and economic growth, and effective governance and voice accountability are essential for promoting transparency and citizen participation in decision-making processes. The study utilizes a panel dataset from 2002 to 2021 and employs computer data analysis to estimate the effects of changes in government effectiveness and voice accountability on R&D expenditure. The findings reveal a positive impact of government effectiveness and voice accountability on R&D expenditure. A 1% increase in government effectiveness is associated with a 0.618% increase in research development expenditure, while a 1% rise in voice accountability corresponds to a 0.625% increase. These results highlight the importance of effective governance and citizen engagement in fostering R&D investment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Industries with more complex input-output relationships are comparatively larger in U.S. states with higher levels of trust. This specialization pattern is not driven by differences in the states' and industries' other observable characteristics. Given the importance of complexity in economic growth and development, our results underscore the need to focus more on the role of social norms, particularly trust, in shaping patterns of economic specialization. • Trust shapes economic specialization patterns. • We show formally that trust may alleviate high verification costs of complex transactions. • We construct a new complexity measure based on I-O relationships. • We find that complex industries thrive in higher-trust U.S. states. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The critical aspects of SDG 13 and 7 in Canada explored. • Economic growth worsens ecological deterioration. • Renewable electricity and financial development improve clean environmental in the later periods. • Financial development and renewable electricity promote economic growth in all periods. While Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 13 and 7 are increasingly being explored in climate change research, financialization remains a fundamental part of the discourse on clean and renewable energy development. This study focuses on a policy reconfiguration that may be necessary to further advance clean environment in Canada. More precisely, the research evaluates the co-movement of carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions, financial development, renewable electricity and economic growth. The data, which encompass the quarterly periods from 1984Q1 to 2021Q4, are analysed via the novel wavelet local multiple correlation method. This method is capable of capturing the effect of two or three independent variables on the dependant variable at different frequencies and periods. In this study, the results show that economic growth intensifies ecological deterioration in all periods even as renewable electricity utilisation and financial development restrict ecological deterioration in the medium and long term. Additionally, financial development and renewable electricity consumption promote economic growth in the short, medium and long term. On the basis of these findings, a policy agenda that builds on the SDGs is proposed. Although this policy framework aims to achieve the objectives of SDG 13 and 7 in Canada, it may be extended to other developed countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drawing from city-level data spanning 2013 to 2020 in China, this study examines the economic outcomes of a digital currency pilot test policy. Through the application of a Difference-in-Differences (DID) model, the findings indicate areas promoting digital currencies are more inclined to draw businesses to establish and allocate investments into fixed assets, thereby fostering economic growth. Our empirical evidence also suggests that the robust adaptability of digital currencies across varied cultural contexts and geographical locations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long-term growth is not a simple transition along the path of equilibrium growth, but a process of the interplay of technological, economic, institutional, and social factors. Social capability is an important prerequisite for late-developing countries to catch up with leading countries, and the combination of social capability and the technology gap co-determine the potential of a country to improve productivity through catching up. This paper clarifies the theoretical mechanism of social capability to promote economic growth, and reveals that accountability quality may become capability gap which impedes the convergence of economic growth of the low-income countries by analyzing the panel data from 166 countries over the period 1996–2019. This paper believes that with the rising income level, it is the general path of sustained economic growth to promote the modernization of economic structure while ensuring the supply of goods and effective social incentives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The construction of overseas military bases requires significant investment from the defence budget, but the literature is still divided on whether this has a negative impact on the host nation's economy. This study empirically examines these issues using data from the most recent US defence budget, revenue statistics from military contractors, and financial information from US military bases in Japan. The results of the study suggest that the construction of overseas bases only harms the American economy if they are acquired through military occupation. On the other hand, building overseas bases that are secured through an alliance will support American economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine impacts of environmental regulations and political incentives on firms' green innovation. By exploiting a natural experiment on reduction of sulfur dioxide (SO 2) emissions in China, we show that the environmental regulation significantly enhances firms' green innovations. For 1% increase in provincial SO 2 reduction targets, there is average 1.77% (2.67%) increase in green patent amount (quality). A plausible mechanism driving our findings is that target-based performance evaluation in political promotion may properly motivate local bureaucrats to exert pressures on firms to implement environmentally friendly innovations. However, local bureaucrats' political turnover and short-term pressures of economic growth negatively moderate our findings. Our findings are more pronounced to state-owned, non-financing constrained firms and firms under eastern provinces or SO 2 -filled industries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Earlier empirical studies examining the impact of exchange rate misalignment on economic growth were based on a symmetric approach, assuming that undervaluation and overvaluation affect economic growth symmetrically. However, recent empirical studies have shown that exchange rate misalignments asymmetrically affect economic growth. This study, therefore, examines the asymmetric effects of real exchange rate misalignments on economic growth in Turkey. The asymmetric effects of the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag model show that both overvaluation and undervaluation impede economic growth in Turkey. The study recommends that Turkey should maintain a market-based exchange rate policy to reduce currency misalignment. The study also recommends that the central bank of Turkey should intervene in the foreign exchange market for a short-term to mitigate the excessive distortions in exchange rates and avoid inefficiencies in resource allocation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, there has been a rapid increase in the trend towards environmental sustainability through the adoption of renewable energy resources. However, the main concern revolves around whether renewable energy consumption contributes to economic growth. Thus, this study aims to investigate the relationship between renewable energy and economic growth in European countries from 1970 to 2019 using panel data analysis with structural breaks. Additionally, this study demonstrates the influence of renewable energy consumption, capital stock, and the human capital index on economic growth performance in European countries. To control for structural breaks with sharp and smooth changes in the model, Bai & Perron's [10–11] structural breaks test and Sun et al.'s [66] time-varying fixed effects model are applied. The findings indicate that modeling significant structural breaks helps to consider nonlinearity in the model structure, define time dynamics in relationships, and gain new insights. Moreover, new modeling approaches reveal the validity of the time-varying effect of renewable energy on economic growth. Based on the obtained results, this study provides policy implications for governors and researchers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We reinterpreted Hall and Soskice, 2001 by adopting State-permeated capitalism. • A model with factor of state influence in the market for innovation is proposed. • Econometric analysis with continuous factors in an expanded framework is suggested. • We identify which factors of VoC affect innovation and to what extent they do so. • Empirical results in Hall and Soskice, 2001 are reexamined based on the recent data. Hall and Soskice's (2001) Varieties of Capitalism provides a background for explaining institutional benefits for specific types of innovation. Extensive research has been conducted to verify their claims, but controversy remains because the criteria of radical innovation are ambiguous. In this study, the numerous indicators for radical innovation presented in previous research are comprehensively verified. In addition, the expanded framework, including the concept of state capitalism, is used to reflect real-world economic circumstances in which state involvement in the market drives economic growth and innovation. By expressing the components that serve as the basis for clusters of market economy types as continuous variables, we identified which factors affect innovation and to what extent they do so. The results of a patent analysis support Hall and Soskice's (2001) claims, while those based on a trade analysis show conflicting results. A trade-off exists between state involvement in the market and innovation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We aim to examine the role of governance in accomplishing sustainable economic growth of Saudi Arabia. • The results confirm the significant and positive impact of voice of accountability, rule of law and corruption control. • However, the short-run estimations declaring that short-run dynamics are quite different than long-run empirics. • Post 2030 Vision analysis illustrated that institutional dimension have positive coefficients. • Political stability and governance effectiveness need to be addressed to attain sustainable economic growth in Saudi Arabia. The study's goal is to explore and scrutinize the role of governance in achieving, manipulating, and modifying sustainable economic growth in Saudi Arabia. It also highlight the role of governance measures prior and after Vision 2030, by using ARDL and dynamic ARDL simulated econometric approaches. On contrary to the existing literature, the empirical estimations have reported the adverse impact of governance effectiveness on economic growth. Further, the findings have endorsed the significant and positive impact of voice of accountability, rule of law and corruption control. Moreover, the results of post Vision 2030 have illustrated that institutional dimension of governance has substantial and positive coefficients, while political stability and governance effectiveness need to be addressed to undertake sustainable economic growth in Saudi Arabia. In turn of policy recommendations, this study empowers administration in monitoring current strategies and later decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The ARDL cointegration technique was applied for the Brazilian context in the very long-run (1822–2019). • We focus on three main determinants of Brazil's economic growth, namely human capital, structural change, and institutional quality. • The research provides policy suggestions for promoting economic growth in Brazil through human capital accumulation and industrialization. A growing body of empirical literature has considered very long-time horizons when studying the sources of a country's economic growth. Nevertheless, the growth experiences of emerging economies (EEs) have been overlooked. This study examines to what extent human capital, structural change, and institutional quality contribute to the economic growth of one of the largest EEs in the world, Brazil, between 1822 and 2019. Resorting to the ARDL cointegration technique, the results suggest that years of schooling (human capital) have a positive and long-lasting impact on Brazil's economic growth. Moreover, there is solid evidence that sectoral changes toward more advanced and sophisticated manufacturing basis is growth-enhancing in the country. Finally, institutional quality does not constitute over the very long-run, a significant booster of Brazilian economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming has hit The modern period worse than ever since the industrial revolution. As a result, more programs that benefit the environment have been launched, notably in renewable energy and green financing. This research delves into how carbon neutrality and sustainable financial development in China are affected by factors including renewable energy, green finance, technological innovation, and economic complexity. The report evaluates the impacts of renewable energy, transportation infrastructure, and green economic growth on China's green financial development from 2008 to 2020. A two-stage ordinary least squares method is used to account for the endogeneity of this connection. Empirical research supports the significance of green finance in China's sustainable development, with the results indicating that renewable energy and green economic growth (GDP) are critical determinants for sustainable development. The study's findings inform policy decisions on how best to promote green finance, renewable energy, and technical innovation in China, all of which are essential to the country's long-term economic success. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aggregate income share of middle-class households is observed to be shrinking in some developed countries. The cause of the disappearance of the middle class needs further investigation. We are aware of Piketty's hypothesis that inequality increases if the rate of return on capital exceeds the economic growth rate. However, increasing inequality is not identical to the vanishing middle class, and the macroeconomic mechanism for the latter is yet to be investigated. This study analyses the mechanism by which the middle class vanishes by constructing a wealth-in-the-utility-function model. Our findings are as follows: (1) If a modified Piketty condition is combined with a lower-class targeted redistribution, the middle class vanishes through the vicious cycle of expansion of the lower class and increasing taxes. (2) An institutional conversion to a universal redistribution can prevent the middle class from vanishing, even if the modified Piketty condition holds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper revisits the relation between economic growth and life insurance consumption for a panel of 130 countries in the period between 2003 and 2016. To address endogeneity concerns, we instrument economic growth by the quality of governments' regulations and show that economic growth positively affects different measures of insurance consumption. Additionally, we find that the share of income households spend on life insurance increases as economies become wealthier. Our findings thus support the demand-following and feedback hypotheses, which state that economic growth contributes to insurance sector development. Finally, we provide evidence that these effects are stronger for middle- compared to high-income economies. Consistent with the idea that the marginal propensity to consume is especially large in low-income economies, we cannot find any evidence that economic growth affects insurance consumption in these countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies have largely ignored the role of small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs) and instead concentrated on corporate social responsibility (CSR) in large corporations. In the developing Chinese economy, promoting responsible behavior​ among manufacturing SMEs has taken on greater significance. Using mixed-level probit regression and qualitative comparative analysis, this study examines data from Chinese SMEs between 2010 and 2018. Results show that worker productivity has a positive impact on how public spending and R&D spending are related. The study reveals a wide range of relationships between various SME categories. Results show that public spending and R&D significantly contribute to the economic expansion of Chinese SMEs. Pre-crisis financial flexibility, which has little impact on R&D employment flexibility during a crisis, also undermines the positive relationship between increased R&D flexibility and post-crisis business performance. These observations clarify how SMEs participate in international R&D and highlight opportunities and management challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China faces the challenge of balancing economic development with environmental sustainability as one of the largest economies and the world's top emitter of greenhouse gases. This study investigates the role of fiscal incentives and energy efficiency in fostering green economic growth in China. The Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model is used in the analysis, which spans the years 2010 to 2021, to assess the effectiveness of energy use and the influence of financial incentives on environmental sustainability. The results show that increasing energy efficiency reduces environmental deterioration and improves resource utilization, positively contributing to green economic growth. The study also demonstrates the critical role financial incentives, such as tax breaks and subsidies, play in encouraging investments in sustainable practices and clean technology development. These results underline how crucial it is to implement targeted fiscal policies and energy efficiency measures to promote green economic growth in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study, for the first time in Taiwan, uses the mixed frequency vector autoregressive (MF-VAR) model in the high-frequency dataset to investigate the causal association between economic progress and carbon dioxide emissions over time periods spanning from 1970Q1-2019Q4. This study also includes primary energy consumption as a control variable for analysis since the bias of missing variables could lead to misleading results. In accordance with the forecast error variance decomposition and the Granger causality test, our empirical findings imply that the MF-VAR model has more explanatory power than the traditional VAR model. The empirical LF-VAR model results demonstrate a reciprocal and causal association between economic progress and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions is supported by evidence; primary energy consumption significantly influences economic progress. Additionally, MF-VAR model results also indicate, in Taiwan, a reciprocal and causal association between economic progress and carbon dioxide emissions as well as between primary energy consumption and economic progress. Based on the finding of the results, this study suggests policy implications to the government that an effective energy strategy should be addressed along with the plan for economic development in Taiwan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Bielefeld School of economics emerged in the 1990s, led by economists located at/or regularly visiting the University of Bielefeld in that period and the following decades, with Peter Flaschel as arguably its central leading figure based at that university. This school drew especially on the work of Richard Goodwin and his nonlinear dynamical models of macroeconomic growth and fluctuations. His work, in turn, drew on both Keynes and Marx as well as Schumpeter. Besides these influences, the school would also eventually add inventory adjustment models due to Lloyd Metzler to model endogenous fluctuations with associated income distribution dynamics with economic growth. While drawing on both classical and Keynesian sources, these models differ from modern New Keynesian models by eschewing rational expectations as well as equilibrium, emphasizing instead ongoing disequilibrium adjustment. While they have some similarities to Post Keynesian models, there has been relatively little interchange or interaction between the two schools. Several in the Bielefeld group appeared to be sometimes critical of Post Keynesians for a perceived lack of rigor in a number of their models. At the same time though there are several sub-schools of Post Keynesian economics similar to the Bielefeld School in approach than others. Probably the clearest area of overlap and similarity involves models exhibiting dynamic complexity, irregular endogenous fluctuations. Indeed one Post Keynesian tradition derives from nonlinear dynamical models due to Kaldor, which resemble those of Goodwin, the main foundation for the Bielefeld School models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article analyzes the advantages of the multi-objective dynamic input-output optimization model compared to the single objective dynamic input-output optimization model, and demonstrates the reason why the multi-objective model improves the stability of the solution of the dynamic input-output equation system by constructing a goal programming model. Based on the 2021 and 200 input-output table, a multi-objective dynamic input-output optimization model was established for the actual economic and social development of City A. The model includes five objective functions, including economic growth and comprehensive economic balance, and is solved using the goal programming method. The prediction results of the city's main economic indicators, such as GDP, tertiary output added value, and so on from 2021 to 2025, are presented. This result is basically the same as the results obtained using artificial neural network methods, and is more in line with the actual situation of the city. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Poverty is one of the world's main problems, which has been very difficult to overcome. The poverty rate has influences on economic growth in an area. The greater the poverty rate in an area, the more difficult it is for an area to grow economically. Many factors affect the level of poverty. Geographical location, level of education, population growth in each region, significantly affect the poverty level. The many factors that affect the poverty level make it difficult for us to predict which factors will influence the level of poverty in an area, making it difficult for us to solve the problem. This research was made to predict what factors influence the level of poverty in Papua, Indonesia. This study uses a Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) method due to the existence of spatial heterogeneity. It produces model estimates that are local for each location and different from other locations to get a model with the most influential factors in each region. The results of this study are as follows. First, agricultural employees affected the poverty rate in each location in Papua. Second, house area and households with access to safe water are significant variables in Yapen, Biak Numfor, and Supiori. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we explore the co-movements between renewable and non-renewable energy sources and CO 2 emissions and GDP per capita in Saudi Arabia, respectively. Using the spectral Granger causality approach, our results suggested that non-renewable energy sources lead to carbon emission expansion in the frequency domain. Taken together, a significant causal relationship from fossil to economic growth is perceived over the long-term horizon while renewable energy source drives economic growth over different frequencies and considerably contributes to carbon emissions reduction. The wavelet plots revealed strong discrepancies in all variables in the time-frequency space. While non-renewable energy sources indorsed the economic growth across short-and medium-term scales and contribute to a polluted environment, renewable energy consumption has a substantial effect on carbon emission drop and on economic growth in the short-term. The multiple wavelet outcomes show that renewable energy may not only stimulate the economic growth but also promote sustainable and cleaner environment. The combined effects of non-renewable energy sources rise the carbon emissions. Thus, Saudi's government is counselled to promote the green energy investments and accelerate the transition to renewable energy production as its use as a substitute of fossil fuels carries advantages and opportunities alternating from environment to social-economic. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The analysis investigates the effect of the membership duration in the GATT and the WTO on economic growth volatility. • It uses an unbalanced panel dataset of 153 countries over the period from 1980 to 2019, and several estimators. • Results suggest that the membership duration has been associated with lower economic growth volatility. • The negative effect is larger in member states that have been subject to rigorous accession procedures than in other member states. • The membership duration also exerts a larger dampening effect on economic growth volatility in countries that further upgrade their export products. • Finally, countries that enjoy a greater openness to international trade experience a larger negative effect of the membership duration on economic growth volatility. This article investigates how the duration of membership in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and the World Trade Organization (WTO) affects economic growth volatility. Using an unbalanced panel dataset of 153 countries over the period 1980–2019, it has revealed that the duration of membership in the GATT/WTO reduces economic growth volatility, with this negative effect being larger in member states that have been subject to rigorous accession procedures. More importantly, the membership duration exerts a larger dampening economic growth volatility effect as countries further upgrade their export products. It also exerts a larger negative effect on economic growth volatility in countries that enjoy a greater openness to international trade. These findings complement the findings of the positive economic growth effect of the membership in the GATT/WTO, by showing that more than the mere membership in the GATT/WTO, the duration of such membership affects economic growth volatility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We develop an index measuring the efficiency of the tax structure. • The TSE (Tax Structure Efficiency) index is based on the marginal excess burden. • We validate the index following two accepted models, using the OECD data. • The perceived tax burden can be controlled by broadening the tax base. Identifying the impact of tax structures on economic growth is crucial to those who create tax policies. In this article, we create a tool called Tax Structure Efficiency Index that is based on the level of the tax system's concentration for assessing the tax structure's efficiency. We validate the measure by using the findings of two existing models—those of Arnold at el. and Lee and Gordon–that analyze the impact of different tax structures on economic growth. Our results accord with the findings of both previous studies and provide an explanation for them–the concentration of the tax structure affects economic growth through the excess burden. We also find that the perceived tax burden can be controlled by broadening the tax base, which can be measured by the TSE index. Those who create tax policies can use our simple measurement tool to design a tax structure that might lower the perceived tax and excess burdens and improve a country's long-term growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Investigate the effect of economic complexity on energy-related environmental risks (ERER) in the USA. • Extend the traditional quantile-on-quantile regression model to the multivariate case. • Find time-varying effects of economic complexity, economic growth, FDI, trade, and urbanization on ERER. • Effect of economic complexity is negative and weak in the extremely lower quantiles of ERER. • Effect of FDI (except the middle quantile) and urbanization is negative across the quantiles of ERER. This study uses the economic complexity index to examine how knowledge accumulation and its uses affect energy-related environmental risks in the USA over the period 1995:Q1–2020:Q4. To this end, we extend the traditional bivariate Quantile-on-Quantile Regression to the multivariate case. The empirical results provide time-varying effects of economic complexity, economic growth, FDI, trade openness, and urbanization on energy-related environmental risks. Particularly, the effect of economic complexity is negative and weak in the extremely lower quantiles of energy-related environmental risks, while it is positive and stronger in the middle and higher quantiles. The implication of these results is that economic complexity only condenses energy-related environmental risks when such environmental risks caused by energy-related factors are extremely low. Furthermore, economic growth and tradeopenness stimulate energy-related environmental risks but the effects of FDI and urbanization reduce energy-related environmental risks. Therefore, these findings provide insights into achieving environmental sustainability targets in the USA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We proposed an evolutionary general equilibrium framework on new technology diffusion and economic growth. • The framework can capture the nonlinear, path-dependent, and S-shaped technological diffusion process. • Impact of carbon pricing and life expectancy of coal-fired power is analyzed. • A well-designed policy can bring a win-win future for near-zero emissions of power sector and economic growth of china. • The framework may be insightful for developing the next-generation computable general equilibrium models on structural change of low-carbon technologies. The thorough transition of energy system is required to achieve the Paris Agreement goal. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are a common tool for estimating the energy transition pathway and the impact of low-carbon policies on economic growth. However, CGE models encounter challenges on modeling diffusion of new technologies. This study proposed a novel evolutionary dynamic general equilibrium model to capture the nonlinear, path-dependent and S-shaped technology diffusion process, and examined the low-carbon transition pathway of power sector and its impact on economic growth of China. We found that imposing a moderate carbon tax and avoiding the over-reliance on coal-fired power could achieve the near-zero emissions of power sector, avoid the large economic loss and hasten the economic growth in the long term. The evolutionary framework may be useful for developing the next-generation model, particularly for simulating the diffusion of new technologies, and their structural effects on economic dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A long tradition in economic theory has seen the real exchange rate (RER) as a key determinant of trade performance. Several empirical studies, however, have found low estimates of macro trade elasticities and, as a result, questioned this argument. In this paper, we show that to understand and estimate the effect of RER on trade performance, it is crucial to explore the existence of heterogeneous responses of individual products to RER movements. Using trade data from Argentina, we employ the Mean Group method to estimate macro trade elasticities by individual products disaggregated at four digits of the SITC; rev.2. We find a wide range of heterogeneous responses of exports and imports to RER movements at the individual product level. We find that the estimated RER-elasticities in differentiated products and labor-intensive manufacturing goods are substantially larger than those of primary and homogeneous products. Based on the estimated elasticities at the product level, we obtain a "low" aggregate RER-elasticity of exports when we weigh them by the country's trade basket. We show that this result is a consequence of Argentina's economic structure, a country whose exports are heavily specialized in primary and homogeneous products. Our results are important because they help build a bridge between two conflicting views in the RER-economic development literature. Even in countries with "low" aggregate macro RER-elasticities, the real exchange rate may be an important variable for economic performance. An undervalued RER may facilitate economic growth by stimulating investment in activities producing more complex/differentiated goods in countries that specialize in the production of primary and homogeneous goods and, as a result, have "low" trade elasticities. This seems to be the case of several countries in Latin America, including Argentina. • We find a wide range of heterogeneous responses of exports and imports to RER movements at the individual product level. • The estimated RER-elasticities in differentiated products and labor-intensive manufacturing goods are substantially larger than those of primary and homogeneous products. • Based on the estimated elasticities at the product level, we obtain a "low" aggregate RER-elasticity of exports when we weigh them by the country's trade basket. • We show that this result is a consequence of Argentina's economic structure, a country whose exports are heavily specialized in primary and homogeneous products. • Our results are important because they help build a bridge between two conflicting views in the RER-economic development literature. Even in countries with "low" aggregate macro RER-elasticities, the real exchange rate may be an important variable for economic performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The significance of international tourism for economic (de)stabilization and recovery has been recognized. However, it remains unclear whether and why tourism drives economic growth in all phases of the business cycle. To investigate this relationship, we conducted a causality-in-quantile study using data on tourism and GDP from 12 European countries between 1995 and 2021. Our analysis reveals that tourism's influence on growth recedes during both crises and booms. Following an economic downturn, short-term mechanisms, such as direct and multiplier effects, contribute to stabilize and stimulate growth, which then activate long-term mechanisms, such as reallocation effects, that shape the growth trend. Our findings indicate that macro-tourism policies and their timing play a role in managing business cycles. However, potential long-term challenges arise from tourism specialization, such as resource reallocation towards low-productivity sectors and externalities. Therefore, policymakers must consider both the short- and long-term impacts of tourism when devising tourism-led recovery strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To assess the ultimate causal flow between monetary policy indicators, fiscal sustainability and economic growth has been deeply studied in the literature. However, this issue is still open to discussion due to mixed results and caveats/limitations of existing studies. Importantly, previous analyses mostly focus on bivariate/trivariate systems, missing a relevant piece of economic drivers. We analyse jointly these interdependencies by applying multivariate Granger Causality and determining an ultimate "causality path" excluding redundant relationships. Thus, we combine recent developments introduced to estimate the Granger causality procedure based on Meta-analysis in heterogeneous mixed panels and graphical models searching iteratively for the existing dependencies between a multivariate set of information. Our results provide novel empirical evidence suggesting that monetary policy variables play a leading role in the resulting complex economic system. Furthermore, we do find evidence supporting the role of Total Expenditure as a driver of fiscal policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, Asian countries have invested heavily in renewable energy technologies as a means of fulfilling energy demand while reducing carbon emissions. This study focuses on the relationship between clean energy, technological innovation, and economic growth in Asian countries. The study analyzes panel data for 38 Asian countries from 1990 to 2021, utilizing several statistical models such as the second-generation unit root test, Westerlund co-integration test, and AMG regression model. Based on empirical findings, the study suggest a positive and significant relationship between clean energy consumption, technological innovation, and economic growth. Additionally, financial development was found to have a positive impact on economic growth, while population size and CO2 emissions had negative impacts. The study emphasizes that promotion of clean energy and technological innovation is essential for achieving sustainable economic growth in Asia while reducing carbon emissions and improving the environment for future generations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Innovation, coordination, green initiatives, openness, and sharing are now considered to be essential building blocks for achieving high-quality economic development in China. Using a novel index, we investigate the impact of manufacturing agglomeration on high-quality economic development. Our results revealed the following: (1). The overall level of manufacturing agglomeration has been steadily decreasing, and there are significant differences in the spatial and temporal patterns of high-quality development across the country. (2). Manufacturing agglomeration promotes high-quality economic development not only within a region but also in its surrounding areas. However, different regions exhibit different spatial effects. (3). While manufacturing agglomeration simultaneously promotes economic growth, innovation, openness, and sharing between local and neighboring regions, it hinders local coordination and restrains green development in both local and neighboring regions. Overall, our findings provide timely policy evaluations on new policy trends in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]