Search

To evaluate the role of Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) on Northern Hemisphere (NH) surface air temperature trends it is important to have reliable estimates of both quantities. 16 different TSI estimates were compiled from the literature. 1/2 of these estimates are low variability and 1/2 are high variability. 5 largely-independent methods for estimating NH temperature trends were evaluated using: 1) only rural weather stations; 2) all available stations whether urban or rural (the standard approach); 3) only sea surface temperatures; 4) tree-ring temperature proxies; 5) glacier length temperature proxies. The standard estimates using urban as well as rural stations were anomalous as they implied a much greater warming in recent decades than the other estimates. This suggests urbanization bias might still be a problem in current global temperature datasets despite the conclusions of some earlier studies. Still, all 5 estimates confirm it is currently warmer than the late 19th century, i.e., there has been some global warming since 1850. For the 5 estimates of NH temperatures, the contribution from direct solar forcing for all 16 estimates of TSI was evaluated using simple linear least-squares fitting. The role of human activity in recent warming was then calculated by fitting the residuals to the UN IPCC's recommended anthropogenic forcings time series. For all 5 NH temperature series, different TSI estimates implied everything from recent global warming being mostly human-caused to it being mostly natural. It seems previous studies (including the most recent IPCC reports) that had prematurely concluded the former failed to adequately consider all the relevant estimates of TSI and/or to satisfactorily address the uncertainties still associated with NH temperature trend estimates. Several recommendations are provided on how future research could more satisfactorily resolve these issues., Comment: 71 pages, 18 figures. To be published in Research in Astronomy and Astrophysics

The satellite total solar irradiance (TSI) database provides a valuable record for investigating models of solar variation used to interpret climate changes. The 35-year ACRIM TSI satellite composite was updated using corrections to ACRIMSAT/ACRIM3 results derived from recent testing at the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics/Total solar irradiance Radiometer Facility (LASP/TRF). The corrections lower the ACRIM3 scale by ~5000 ppm, in close agreement with the scale of SORCE/TIM results (solar constant ~1361 W/m^2). Relative variations and trends are not changed. Differences between the ACRIM and PMOD TSI composites, e.g. the decadal trending during solar cycles 21-22, are tested against a set of solar proxy models, including analysis of Nimbus7/ERB and ERBS/ERBE results available to bridge the ACRIM Gap (1989-1992). Our findings confirm: (1) The validity of the TSI peak in the originally published ERB results in early 1979 during solar cycle 21; (2) The correctness of originally published ACRIM1 results during the SMM spin mode (1981-1984); (3) The upward trend of originally published ERB results during the ACRIM Gap; (4) The occurrence of a significant upward TSI trend between the minima of solar cycles 21 and 22 and (5) a decreasing trend during solar cycles 22-23. Our findings do not support: (1) The downward corrections to originally published ERB and ACRIM1 results during solar cycle 21; (2) A step function sensitivity change in ERB results at the end-of-September 1989; (3) the validity of ERBE's downward trend during the ACRIM Gap or (4) the use of ERBE results to bridge the ACRIM Gap. Our analysis provides a first order validation of the ACRIM TSI composite approach and its 0.037%/decade upward trend during solar cycles 21-22. Thus, solar forcing of climate change may be a significantly larger factor than represented in the CMIP5 general circulation climate models., Comment: 26 pages, 15 figures

Herein we adopt a multi-scale dynamical spectral analysis technique to compare and study the dynamical evolution of the harmonic components of the overlapping ACRIMSAT/ACRIM3, SOHO/VIRGO and SORCE/TIM total solar irradiance (TSI) records during 2003.15 to 2013.16 in solar cycles 23 and 24. The three TSI time series present highly correlated patterns. Significant power spectral peaks are common to these records and are observed at the following periods: 0.070 year, 0.097 year, 0.20 year, 0.25 year, 0.30-0.34 year, 0.39 year. Less certain spectral peaks occur at about 0.55 year, 0.60-0.65 year and 0.7-0.9 year. Four main frequency periods at 24.8 days (0.068 year), 27.3 days (0.075 year), at 34-35 days (0.093-0.096 year) and 36-38 days (0.099-0.104 year) characterize the solar rotation cycle. The amplitude of these oscillations, in particular of those with periods larger than 0.5 year, appears to be modulated by the 11-year solar cycle. Similar harmonics have been found in other solar indices. The observed periodicities are found highly coherent with the spring, orbital and synodic periods of Mercury, Venus, Earth and Jupiter. We conclude that solar activity is likely modulated by planetary gravitational and electromagnetic forces acting on the sun. The strength of the sun's response to planetary forcing depends non-linearly on the state of internal solar dynamics: planetary-sun coupling effects are enhanced during solar activity maxima and attenuated during minima., Comment: 18 pages, 10 figures, 3 tables

The time series of total solar irradiance (TSI) satellite observations since 1978 provided by ACRIM and PMOD TSI composites are studied. We find empirical evidence for planetary-induced forcing and modulation of solar activity. Power spectra and direct data pattern analysis reveal a clear signature of the 1.09-year Earth-Jupiter conjunction cycle, in particular during solar cycle 23 maximum. This appears to suggest that the Jupiter side of the Sun is slightly brighter during solar maxima. The effect is observed when the Earth crosses the Sun-Jupiter conjunction line every 1.09 years. Multiple spectral peaks are observed in the TSI records that are coherent with known planetary harmonics such as the spring, orbital and synodic periods among Mercury, Venus, Earth and Jupiter: the Mercury-Venus spring-tidal cycle (0.20 year); the Mercury orbital cycle (0.24 year); the Venus-Jupiter spring-tidal cycle (0.32 year); the Venus-Mercury synodic cycle (0.40 year); the Venus-Jupiter synodic cycle (0.65 year); and the Venus-Earth spring tidal cycle (0.80 year). Strong evidence is also found for a 0.5-year TSI cycle that could be driven by the Earth's crossing the solar equatorial plane twice a year and may indicate a latitudinal solar-luminosity asymmetry. Because both spring and synodic planetary cycles appear to be present and the amplitudes of their TSI signatures appear enhanced during sunspot cycle maxima, we conjecture that on annual and sub-annual scales both gravitational and electro-magnetic planet-sun interactions and internal non-linear feedbacks may be modulating solar activity. Gravitational tidal forces should mostly stress spring cycles while electro-magnetic forces could be linked to the solar wobbling dynamics, and would mostly stress the synodic cycles., Comment: 16 pages, 5 figures, 3 tables; Astrophysics and Space Science, (2013)

The historical Hungarian auroral record extends from 1523 to 1960 and is longer than the sunspot record. Harmonic analysis reveals four major multidecadal secular cycles forming an approximate harmonic set at periods of 42.85, 57.13, 85.7 and 171.4 years. These four frequencies are very close to the four major heliospheric oscillations relative to the center of mass of the solar system caused by Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune. Similar frequencies are found in solar radiation models based on long cosmogenic isotope records (Steinhilber et al. 2012) and in long records of naked-eye sunspot observations (Vaquero et al., 2002). Harmonic regression models are used to reconstruct and forecast aurora and solar activity for the period 1956-2050. The model predicts: (1) the multidecadal solar minimum in the 1970s that is also observed in the sunspot record; (2) a solar maximum in 2000-2002 that is observed in the ACRIM total solar irradiance satellite composite; (3) a prolonged solar minimum centered in the 2030s. These findings support a hypothesis that the Sun, the heliosphere and the terrestrial magnetosphere are partially modulated by planetary gravitational and magnetic forces synchronized to planetary oscillations, as also found in other recent publications (Scafetta, 2010, 2012a, 2012c, 2012d; Abreu et al., 2012; Tan & Cheng, 2012)., Comment: 29 pages, 6 figures, 2 tables

A continuous record of direct total solar irradiance (TSI) observations began with a series of satellite experiments in 1978. This record requires comparisons of overlapping satellite observations with adequate relative precisions to provide useful long term TSI trend information. Herein we briefly review the active cavity radiometer irradiance monitor physikalisch-meteorologisches observatorium davos (ACRIM-PMOD) TSI composite controversy regarding how the total solar irradiance (TSI) has evolved since 1978 and about whether TSI significantly increased or slightly decreased from 1980 to 2000. The main question is whether TSI increased or decreased during the so-called ACRIM-gap period from 1989 to 1992. There is significant discrepancy between TSI proxy models and observations before and after the gap, which requires a careful revisit of the data analysis and modeling performed during the ACRIM-gap period. In this study, we use three recently proposed TSI proxy models that do not present any TSI increase during the ACRIM-gap, and show that they agree with the TSI data only from 1996 to 2016. However, these same models significantly diverge from the observations from 1981 and 1996. Thus, the scaling errors must be different between the two periods, which suggests errors in these models. By adjusting the TSI proxy models to agree with the data patterns before and after the ACRIM-gap, we found that these models miss a slowly varying TSI component. The adjusted models suggest that the quiet solar luminosity increased from the 1986 to the 1996 TSI minimum by about 0.45 W/sq.m reaching a peak near 2000 and decreased by about 0.15 W/sq.m from the 1996 to the 2008 TSI cycle minimum. This pattern is found to be compatible with the ACRIM TSI composite and confirms the ACRIM TSI increasing trend from 1980 to 2000, followed by a long-term decreasing trend since.

The affinity of metal chelates for amino acids, such as histidine, is widely used in purifying proteins, most notably through six-histidine 'tails'. We have found that metal affinity interactions can also be applied to separation of single-stranded nucleic acids through interactions involving exposed purines. Here we describe a metal affinity precipitation method to resolve RNA from linear and plasmid DNA. A copper-charged copolymer of N-isopropyl acrylamide (NIPAM) and vinyl imidazole (VI) is used to purify plasmid from an alkaline lysate of E. coli. The NIPAM units confer reversible solubility on the copolymer while the imidazole chelates metal ions in a manner accessible to interaction with soluble ligands. RNA was separated from the plasmid by precipitation along with the polymer in the presence of 800 mM NaCl. Bound RNA could be recovered by elution with imidazole and separated from copolymer by a second precipitation step. RNA binding showed a strong dependence on temperature and on the type of buffer used.

Recombinant proteins are often purified from microbial lysates containing high concentrations of nucleic acids. Pre-purification steps such as nuclease addition or precipitation with polyethyleneimine or ammonium sulfate are normally required to reduce viscosity and to eliminate competing polyanions before anion exchange chromatography. We report that small polycationic compaction agents such as spermine selectively precipitate nucleic acids during or after Escherichia coli lysis, allowing DNA and RNA to be pelleted with the insoluble cell debris. Analysis by spectrophotometry and protein assay confirmed a significant reduction in the concentration of nucleic acids present, with preservation of protein. Lysate viscosity is greatly reduced, facilitating subsequent processing. We have used 5mM spermine to remove nucleic acids from E. coli lysate in the purification of a hexahistidine-tagged HIV reverse transcriptase.

The use of adsorptive chromatography for preparative nucleic acid separations is often limited by low capacity. The possibility that the adsorbent surface area sterically accessible to nucleic acid molecules could be increased by reducing their radius of gyration with compaction agents has been investigated. The equilibrium adsorption capacity of Q Sepharose anion-exchange matrix for plasmid DNA at 600 mM NaCl was enhanced by up to ca. 40% in the presence of 2.5 mM spermine. In addition, compaction agent selectivity has been demonstrated. Spermine, for example, enhances the adsorption of both plasmid and genomic DNA, spermidine enhances binding only of plasmid, and hexamine cobalt enhances only the binding of genomic DNA. Compaction may be generally useful for enhancing adsorptive separations of nucleic acids.

Ribosomal RNA (rRNA) and engineered stable artificial RNAs (aRNAs) are frequently used to monitor bacteria in complex ecosystems. In this work, we describe a solid-phase immunocapture hybridization assay that can be used with low molecular weight RNA targets. A biotinylated DNA probe is efficiently hybridized in solution with the target RNA, and the DNA-RNA hybrids are captured on streptavidin-coated plates and quantified using a DNA-RNA heteroduplex-specific antibody conjugated to alkaline phosphatase. The assay was shown to be specific for both 5S rRNA and low molecular weight (LMW) artificial RNAs and highly sensitive, allowing detection of as little as 5.2 ng (0.15 pmol) in the case of 5S rRNA. Target RNAs were readily detected even in the presence of excess nontarget RNA. Detection using DNA probes as small as 17 bases targeting a repetitive artificial RNA sequence in an engineered RNA was more efficient than the detection of a unique sequence.

MOTIVATION: The phylogenetic structure of the bacterial world has been intensively studied by comparing sequences of 16S ribosomal RNA (16S rRNA). This database of sequences is now widely used to design probes for the detection of specific bacteria or groups of bacteria one at a time. The success of such methods reflects the fact that there are local sequence segments that are highly characteristic of particular organisms or groups of organisms. It is not clear, however, the extent to which such signature sequences exist in the 16S rRNA dataset. A better understanding of the numbers and distribution of highly informative oligonucleotide sequences may facilitate the design of hybridization arrays that can characterize the phylogenetic position of an unknown organism or serve as the basis for the development of novel approaches for use in bacterial identification. RESULTS: A computer-based algorithm that characterizes the extent to which any individual oligonucleotide sequence in 16S rRNA is characteristic of any particular bacterial grouping was developed. A measure of signature quality, Q(s), was formulated and subsequently calculated for every individual oligonucleotide sequence in the size range of 5-11 nucleotides and for 15mers with reference to each cluster and subcluster in a 929 organism representative phylogenetic tree. Subsequently, the perfect signature sequences were compared to the full set of 7322 sequences to see how common false positives were. The work completed here establishes beyond any doubt that highly characteristic oligonucleotides exist in the bacterial 16S rRNA sequence dataset in large numbers. Over 16,000 15mers were identified that might be useful as signatures. Signature oligonucleotides are available for over 80% of the nodes in the representative tree.

For more than a decade total solar irradiance has been monitored simultaneously from space by different satellites. The detection of total solar irradiance variations by satellite-based experiments during the past decade and a half has stimulated modeling efforts to help identify their causes and to provide estimates of irradiance data, using `proxy' indicators of solar activity, for time intervals when no satellite observations exist. In this paper total solar irradiance observed by the Nimbus-7/Earth Radiation Budget (ERB), Solar Maximum Mission (SMM)/Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM) 1, and Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS)/ACRIM 2 radiometers is modeled with the Photometric Sunspot Index and the Mg II core-to-wing ratio. Since the formation of the Mg II line is very similar to that of the Ca II K line, the Mg core-to-wing ratio, derived from the irradiance observations of the Nimbus-7 and NOAA9 satellites, is used as a proxy for the bright magnetic elements. It is shown that the observed changes in solar irradiance are underestimated by the proxy models at the time of maximum and during the beginning of the declining portion of solar cycle 22 similar to behavior just before the maximum of solar cycle 21. This disagreement between total irradiance observations and their model estimates is indicative of the fact that the underlying physical mechanism of the changes observed in the solar radiative output is not well-understood. Furthermore, the uncertainties in the proxy data used for irradiance modeling and the resulting limitation of the models should be taken into account, especially when the irradiance models are used for climatic studies.

For more than a decade total solar irradiance has been monitored simultaneously from space by different satellites. The detection of total solar irradiance variations by satellite -based experiments during the past decade and a half has stimulated modeling efforts to help identify their causes and to provide estimates of irradiance data, using "proxy" indicators of solar activity, for the time intervals when no satellite observations exist. In this paper the variations in total solar irradiance observed by the Nimbus-7/ERB, SMM/ACRIM I, and UARS/ACRIM II radiometers are compared to the changes in sunspot darkening and the enhanced emission of bright magnetic elements, including faculae and the magnetic network. Quantitative indices of sunspot darkening have been derived from the area and position of sunspots published in the NOAA-WDC Solar Geophysical Data catalog. The Mg core-to-wing ratio, derived from the irradiance observations of Nimbus-7 and NOAA9 satellites, is used as a proxy for the bright magnetic elements. It has been found that a model, calculated from the Mg II core-to-wing ratio underestimates the observed total irradiance at the time of maximum and during the beginning of the declining portion of solar cycle 22 similar in behaviour just before the maximum of solar cycle 21. Similar results are found using He-line equivalent width and 10.7 cm radio flux which indicates that the current irradiance models are in general not capable to reproducing the changes observed in total solar irradiance.

The Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM I) measured the sun's luminosity from early 1980 to late 1989. The first account of the complete ACRIM I data set is presented and evidence is given which confirms that solar luminosity varies with the 11-yr solar cycle. This slow variation closely follows statistical measures of the distribution of magnetic and photospheric features on the solar surface. An exception to this correlation occurred in the form of a remarkable irradiance excess during 1980, at about the time of the sunspot maximum of solar cycle 21. The linkage, over a whole cycle, of luminosity variation to photospheric activity suggests the existence of an unknown physical mechanism other than the thermal diffusion model that explains luminosity deficits due to sunspots. Luminosity models connecting total irradiance to global indicators of solar activity are consistent with the gross features of the variability but fail to account for the 1980 irradiance excess.

Total solar irradiance measured by the SMM/ACRIM radiometer is modelled from the Photometric Sunspot Index and the Mg II core-to-wing ratio with multiple regression analysis. Considering that the formation of the Mg II line is very similar to that of the Ca II K line, the Mg II core-to-wing ratio, measured by the Nimbus-7 and NOAA9 satellites, is used as a proxy for the bright magnetic elements, including faculae and the magnetic network. It is shown that the relationship between the variations in total solar irradiance and the above solar activity indices depends upon the phase of the solar cycle. Thus, a better fit between total irradiance and its model estimates can be achieved if the irradiance models are calculated for the declining portion and minimum of solar cycle 21, and the rising portion of solar cycle 22, respectively. There is an indication that during the rising portion of solar cycle 22, similar to the maximum time of solar cycle 21, the modelled total irradiance values underestimate the measured values. This suggests that there is an asymmetry in the long-term total irradiance variability.

Total solar irradiance observations by the Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM) on the Solar Maximum Mission, the Nimbus 7/Earth Radiation Budget (ERB), the NASA/Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS), and NOAA 9/Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) are combined to demonstrate the characteristics of the variation of solar luminosity over the solar cycles 21 and 22 between 1978 and 1990. Observations of solar Lyman Alpha and 10.7 MHz fluxes are used to demonstrate a total irradiance variability asymmetry relative to the maximum of solar activity.

Long-term variations in the solar total irradiance found in the ACRIM I experiment on the SMM satellite have revealed a downward trend during the declining phase of solar cycle 21 of the sunspot cycle, a flat period between mid-1095 and mid-1987, and an upturn in late 1987 which suggests a direct correlation of luminosity and solar active region population. If the upturn continues into the activity maximum of solar cycle 22, a relation between solar activity and luminosity of possible climatological significance could be ascertained. The best-fit relationship for the variation of total irradiance S with sunspot number Rz and 10-cm flux F(10) are S = 1366.82 + 7.71 x 10 to the -3rd Rz and S = 1366.27 + 8.98 x 10 to the -3rd F(10)(W/sq m). These findings could be used to approximate total irradiance variations over the periods for which these indices have been compiled.