Search

Explainable AI constitutes a fundamental step towards establishing fairness and addressing bias in algorithmic decision-making. Despite the large body of work on the topic, the benefit of solutions is mostly evaluated from a conceptual or theoretical point of view and the usefulness for real-world use cases remains uncertain. In this work, we aim to state clear user-centric desiderata for explainable AI reflecting common explainability needs experienced in statistical production systems of the European Central Bank. We link the desiderata to archetypical user roles and give examples of techniques and methods which can be used to address the user's needs. To this end, we provide two concrete use cases from the domain of statistical data production in central banks: the detection of outliers in the Centralised Securities Database and the data-driven identification of data quality checks for the Supervisory Banking data system., Comment: European Congress of Machine Learning (ECMLPKDD) - 2nd Workshop on bias and fairness in AI

This note assesses the relative aggressiveness with which central banks around the world have responded to the post-pandemic surge in inflation. We estimate a 'cross-sectional Taylor rule' in which changes in policy interest rates since December 2020 for a range of advanced and emerging market economies are regressed on changes in core CPI inflation and in output gaps. We find that Brazil exceeded the extent of monetary tightening predicted by the estimated Taylor rule by the greatest extent; on the dovish side, Japan exhibited the greatest deviation from prediction. The Federal Reserve's 5 % percentage point hike in rates is just a little higher than the 4 3/4 percentage points predicted by the model, while both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England have tightened more than 2 percentage points less than predicted. A key determinant of these deviations from the model's predictions is the level of pre-pandemic inflation: central banks with histories of high inflation (e.g., Brazil) are more likely to over-tighten relative to the model, whereas central banks that had struggled to push inflation up to target (Japan) are more likely to err on the dovish side., For the past couple of years, the policy responses of central banks around the world to surging inflation have been under the microscope. But evaluating the appropriateness of monetary policymaking [...]

Following Manzan (2021), this paper examines how professional forecasters revise their uncertainty (variance) forecasts. We show that popular first moment 'efficiency' tests are not applicable to study variance forecasts and instead employ monotonicity tests developed by Patton and Timmermann (2012). We find strong support for the Bayesian learning prediction of decreasing patterns in the variance of fixed-event density forecasts and their revisions as the forecast horizon declines. We explore the role of financial conditions indices in variance forecasts and document their predictive content for the revision process of US professional forecasters, although the evidence is weaker for euro area forecasters. Keywords: Variance forecasts, survey expectations, Bayesian learning JEL Codes: C53, E17, E37., I. Introduction The study of expectations and the process underlying their formation remains a topic of considerable interest and importance. The recently published Handbook of Economic Expectations (2022) speaks to [...]

Appendix E. British, U.S., and European Central Bank Operations, April to Mid-October 2008 Coordinated Bank of Federal European Central Bank England Reserve Central Bank Announcements May Announced Expanded size Expansion […]

Appendix E. British, U.S., and European Central Bank Operations, April to Mid-October 2008 Bank of England Federal Reserve May Announced that Expanded size of expanded three- Term Auction Facility month [...]

Appendix D. British, U.S., and European Central Bank Operations, April to Mid-October 2008 Bank of England Federal Reserve May Announced that Expanded size of expanded three- Term Auction month long-term […]

Copper futures settled down on Monday ahead of US and European central bank interest rate decisions, while persistent worries about the Chinese economy and metal demand in line with surging Covid-19 infections also weighed on copper prices. Copper futures for March delivery fell $0.0780 to settle at $3.8005 a pound on the Comex metals division of New York Mercantile Exchange. [Extracted from the article]

Executive Summary With positive growth rates projected for 2017 and 2018, the eurozone's economic crisis appears to be over, at least for now. However, the damage lingers, and so do [...]

Key Points * The temporary conversion of debt holders to shareholders will recapitalize weak eurozone banks without taxpayer money. * The increase in the bank's equity capital is permanent even [...]

The European Central Bank has cut interest rate for the first time since September 2019 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a novel empirical framework that uses high-frequency data to test for persistent variation in market perceptions of the reaction function of the European Central Bank (ECB) during its first 6 years of operation, from January 1999 to mid-2005. This episode serves as a natural experiment for considering the evolution of central bank credibility since the ECB began in an atmosphere of uncertainty, and controversy, as to its policy stance. We argue that these perceptions significantly evolved over this period, a conclusion based on tests of the effect of economic news announcements on the yield curves in the euro area and on the eurodollar exchange rate. An increase in the perceived weight on inflation in the policy decisions of the ECB, or a view that inflation targets were lower than previously perceived, occurred in the wake of ECB monetary tightening. In contrast, there is no comparable evidence of any change in market perceptions of the reaction function of the Federal Reserve over this period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents an interview with Milton Ezrati, senior economist and market strategist with investment management firm Lord Abbett about the monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB) in 2014. Topics discussed include the economic concerns behind the debate over the central bank's monetary and interest rate policy, the limits to the freedom of action of the ECB, and the changes in the role of the ECB in the European Union's institutional architecture.

CONTENTS Assumptions and Conventions Further Information and Data Preface Foreword Executive Summary Chapter 1. Recent Developments and Prospects The Demand and Activity Perspective The External Sector Perspective Downside Risks Policies [...]

Inflation has been remarkably stable in the wake of the Great Recession even though unemployment has increased significantly. The analysis reported here finds that, over the past decade or so, inflation in advanced economies has become less responsive to changes in economic slack and that longer-term inflation expectations have become more firmly anchored. Thus, the recent stability of inflation is consistent with the prevalence of ongoing economic slack and a more muted response of inflation to cyclical conditions. Looking to the future, our analysis suggests that ongoing monetary accommodation is unlikely to have significant inflationary consequences, as long as inflation expectations remain anchored. In this regard, preserving central banks' independence is key. Notwithstanding this, policymakers must remain alert to possible imbalances that may not be reflected in consumer price inflation., 'Is there any point to which you would wish to draw my attention?' 'To the curious incident of the dog in the night-time.' 'The dog did nothing in the night-time.' [...]

European Central Bank (ECB) is ready to provide full assistance to the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) and the ministry of finance in dealing with non-performing loans (NPLs) and maintaining [...]

The European Central Bank (ECB) has given the green light to allow Serbian lender AIK banka, which is majority owned by Serbian businessman Miodrag Kostic, to acquire a 13.9% stake [...]

The controversial foundations of the Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) will reduce investment in government bonds in response to repeated criticism from the European Central Bank (ECB), an MNB official confirmed [...]

None of the seven candidates for adoption of the euro are close to meeting the European Central Bank (ECB) criteria for entry to the eurozone, an ECB report said on [...]