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This study proposes an estimate of the phases of the financial cycle in the Bulgarian economy using a variety of financial and macroeconomic indicators and investigates its interaction with the business cycle. For assessing the financial cycle in Bulgaria two alternative approaches are applied. The first one is based on the use of the band-pass filter and the principal component analysis. The second one relies on a structural unobserved components model. According to both methods the length of the financial cycle is estimated in the range of 11-12 years, which fits well within the widely accepted in the academic literature range of 8 to 30 years. At the same time the business cycle is found to exceed the generally assumed maximal length of 8 years. The results from both approaches indicate, that the financial cycle in Bulgaria is to a large extent synchronised with the business cycle. Another finding of our research is that in 2017 the Bulgarian economy is entering an initial phase of cyclical risk accumulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A country report for South East Europe is presented from publisher Business Monitor International with information on topics including the Turkish government fiscal policy, improved economic growth and higher public expenditure in Bulgaria, and investment growth in Slovenia.

A country report for Bulgaria is presented from publisher IHS Global, with topics including economic growth, economic policy, country risk, and political structure.

This publication provides an economic and political outlook for Bulgaria for 2014-2018. Topics include the country's political stability, international relations, policy trends, fiscal and monetary policies, economic growth, inflation and exchange rates. Also provided are data and charts on Bulgaria's annual, quarterly and monthly economic indicators and trends.

The report presents an outlook for political and economic conditions in Bulgaria from 2013 to 2017. The country's political stability is expected to remain under strain after the formation of a ruling coalition. The Economist Intelligence Unit predicts policy changes which aim at increasing employment and enhancing economic growth. Also provided are forecasts for Bulgaria's other economic indicators, including gross domestic product (GDP), inflation and exchange rates.

The report on the economic outlook and conditions of Bulgaria in 2013 is presented. It predicts that the country's economic growth will still be modest due to high unemployment, need to maintain tight fiscal stance, and slow export demand. It notes the developments in its construction activity, retail trade turnover, and industrial output. The outlook on its consumer demand, labor markets, inflation, exchange rates, and economic policy are also provided.

The article provides an outlook on the economy in Bulgaria from 2012 to 2016. Developments in the economic policies, inflation and the exchange rates from 2009 to 2012 are highlighted. Economic indicators depicting the external sector are summarized. An overview on the economic structure and trade profile of the country is offered.

This publication presents a country report for Bulgaria as of June 2012. It includes political and economic outlook for 2012-2016, a monthly review of the political scene, economic policy and economic outlook, as well as basic country information and political structure. Bulgaria will undergo close scrutiny by the European Union, which continue to demand judicial reform. Growth in Bulgarian economy is expected to weaken in 2012 due to the impact of a forecast recession in the euro zone.

The article analyzes the economic conditions prevailing in Bulgaria. It is reported that, there are several factors because which economic growth in the country in the year 2012 is likely to be moderate including, fragile business and consumer confidence, slow growth of domestic credit, and the need to maintain a relatively tight fiscal stance.

The article provides a political, economic policy, and economic outlook for Bulgaria for 2012-2016. It states that the Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (CEDB), which won in the parliamentary election in July 2009, lacks an outright majority and depends on support from independent parliamentarians to pursue with its legislative programme. The improvement in relations with the European Union (EU) from 2008 to 2009 is noted. Factors that are affecting demand in 2012 are discussed.

The article provides the outlook for the economic performance and economic policy of Bulgaria for 2012. Because of lackluster prospects for exports, still-fragile business and consumer confidence, slow growth of domestic credit, and the need to maintain a relatively tight fiscal stance, it expects that the economic growth will remain at a very moderate pace. Meanwhile, the economic policy is anticipated to stay sensible and will move the country toward even greater macroeconomic stability.

The article presents an outlook for the economic condition of Bulgaria from 2009- 2012. It predicts that the country's economic recovery will stay at a moderate pace due to lackluster prospects for exports, slow growth of domestic credit, and the need to maintain a tight fiscal stance. It mentions the policy of the government under Prime Minister Boyko Borissov to make commensurate cuts in expenditures, given that the country's fiscal revenues are falling far short of original targets.

This publication presents information on Bulgaria. It covers a geographical map of the country, discussions on the political and economic conditions of the country as of July 2011, economic and political forecasts for 2011-2015, and economic trends data and charts. It also provides basic data on Bulgaria including geography, population, main cities, language and currency.

The article presents information on the economic and political conditions in Bulgaria. It summarizes highlights of economic and political outlook for 2011-2015 under the leadership of the Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (CEDB). A forecast on the country's relations with the European Union (EU), Russia and North Atlantic Treaty Organization is offered. Trends in economic, monetary and fiscal policies are also discussed.

This publication offers information about economic and political conditions in Bulgaria as of May 2011. It discusses political and economic outlooks for the country, as well as an economic policy forecast. It also presents charts that show values of economic indicators, including gross domestic product (GDP), population and consumer price inflation.

The article offers information on Bulgaria. It presents political and economic outlook for the country, as well as economic forecast. It also examines the political, economic and economic policy situation in the country as of February 2011. Several charts on annual, quarterly and monthly economic indicators are included.

This publication offers information on Bulgaria. It provides highlights of the country's economic and political outlook for 2011-2015, including the projected 2.6% growth of its real gross domestic product (GDP) in 2011. It offers a review of its political situation, economic policy and performance as of January 2011. Data and charts are provided on the country's annual, quarterly and monthly economic indicators. It also offers information on its political structure.

The article presents information on Bulgaria. It includes several maps, charts and tables showing political and economic data on the country, including economic indicators, such as gross domestic product, inflation rates and current account, and social indicators, including population, work force distribution and ethnic groups. Political and economic forecasts are also discussed.

The article presents information on Bulgaria. It includes several maps, charts and tables showing political and economic data on the country, including economic indicators, such as gross domestic product, inflation rates and current account, and social indicators, including population, work force distribution and ethnic groups. Political and economic forecasts are also discussed.

This publication offers information about the political and economic conditions in the republic of Bulgaria. Economic policy outlook and economic and political forecasts for the country from 2009 to 2010 are provided. Information about economic trends and political structure in Bulgaria are also presented.

The article presents political and economic policy outlook for Bulgaria for 2008-2009. It describes Bulgaria's political scene, economic policy and economic performance for September 2008. Also included are monthly, quarterly and annual data summary on gross domestic product, consolidated government finance and exchange rate. Monthly and annual trends charts are presented including consumer price inflation, wage growth and foreign trade.

A country report for Bulgaria in 2007-2008 are presented. It describes domestic political conditions, with focus on the relations among the members of the coalition government and the country's accession into the European Union. It discusses economic conditions as well as trends in economic policy. Economic forecasts and political outlook are also presented.

This article discusses the economic policy of Bulgaria, a country in eastern Europe. The country's fiscal stance continuos to tighten and the government is well on its target to post budget surplus in fiscal 2006. The non-tax revenue has risen in the first three quarters of 2006. The projection of the government says that there will be an overperformance in all the main tax categories in 2006.

The article offers an outlook on the economic policy of Bulgaria for 2007-2008. The latest data for the implementation of the 2006 budget show strong revenue growth and cautious spending. The three-year budget framework agreed by the government in June 2006 envisions a surplus equivalent to 0.8% of gross domestic product in 2007. The tax plans for 2006 are also assessed. An analysis of the energy sector's privatization is also provided.

The article presents the political and economic outlook for Bulgaria from 2006-2007. The current updates on the country are presented including elections, international relations, economic policy, policy trends, fiscal policy and monetary policy. The economic forecast, economic growth of the country, inflation, exchange rates and external sectors are also discussed.

Discusses the economic policy in Bulgaria in 2006. Budget surplus reported by the government; Rise in public capital spending; Position of the International Monetary Fund on the Bulgarian economic policy.

Forecasts the political and economic conditions in Bulgaria from 2006 to 2007. Stability of the government formed by the Bulgarian Socialist Party; Relations with other countries; Trends in the economic policy; Growth of the economy.

Presents information on the economic policy in Bulgaria in 2005. Substantial surplus in the consolidated budget of the country; Growth in revenue; Government spending for flood repairs.

The government budget was in strong surplus in the first four months of the year, suggesting that it will have few problems in meeting the target of a surplus of 1% of GDP this year. The central bank reacted to attempts by the commercial banks to evade its latest set of lending controls by imposing new restrictions on those banks that had increased lending sharply in March. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Discusses the political and the economic outlook for Bulgaria from 2005 to 2006. Political structure of the country; Trends in Bulgaria's economic policy; Forecast on the economic performance of Bulgaria.

Presents a report on the political and economic conditions in Bulgaria as of April 2005. Political and economic structure; Political and economic policy outlook for 2005-2006; Economic forecast; Domestic economy; Foreign trade and payments.

The IMF has criticised government plans for a sharp increase in the minimum wage. The 2005 budget projects a small budget deficit, but this year's experience, when revenue has been stronger than expected, suggests that the deficit projection may be conservative. Progress in privatisation has been mixed, with the sale of the Bulgartabac tobacco firm running into problems, but the sale of the electricity distributors concluded successfully. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The government has agreed a new stand-by arrangement with the IMF. The draft 2005 budget proposes some cuts in direct taxes and a limited budget deficit. Worries about the rapid growth of domestic lending have led the Bulgarian National Bank (BNB) to tighten the controls on the banking system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forecasts the political and economic conditions in Bulgaria from 2005 to 2006. Stability of the coalition of the Simeon II National Movement and the Turkish Movement for Rights and Freedoms; Trends in the economic policy; Growth in the real gross domestic product.

Presents the political and economic outlook for Bulgaria from 2004-2005. Problems faced by the government concerning the crime levels and the effectiveness of the country's criminal justice system; Fiscal and monetary policy trends of the country as of August 2004; Forecast on the economic growth of the country.

Forecasts the economic and political condition of Bulgaria from 2004 to 2005. Political tensions that are likely to strengthen in 2004; Events that have increased popular concerns about the criminal justice system; Factors that will drive the economic policy over the forecast period.

Despite calls for a lower deficit from the IMF, the government has proposed a budget with a deficit of 0.7% of GDP for 2004. The IMF agreed to the higher deficit after the government agreed to run a balanced budget in 2003 and to go ahead with promised off-budget spending in 2004 only if the current account starts to improve. Corporate taxes are to be cut to 19.5% in 2004, but there has been little progress in privatisation in the past three months. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Presents political and economic outlook for Bulgaria from 2004-2005. Problems faced by the government concerning the crime levels and the effectiveness of the country's criminal justice system; Fiscal and monetary policy trends of the country as of November 2003; Forecast on the economic growth of the country.

Presents statistical description of the macroeconomic activity in Bulgaria from 1996 to 2000. Real gross domestic product (GDP); Money supply, interest rates and foreign exchange reserves; Consumer prices; Labor force.

Presents an overview of the economic conditions in Bulgaria, including gross domestic product, key economic indicators, macroeconomic activity, employment by sector, finance and monetary policy, inflation, foreign exchange and trade balance.

Presents an overview of the corporate and enterprises sector in Bulgaria, including foreign investments, taxation, key enterprises and the stock market.

The article looks at the economic policy of Bulgaria as of March 2012. Figures from the Ministry of Finance showed that the general consolidated budget deficit dropped to 2.1% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2011 from four percent in 2010. It states that the government was successful in bringing the deficit below three percent of GDP which was the limit set by the European Union's (EU) Stability and Growth Pact (SGP).

This article discusses the economic policy conditions of Bulgaria as of February 2012. It reports on the decision of the government to privatise EVN Bulgaria, an energy distribution company that supplies electricity in southern Bulgaria. The support given by Bulgaria to a fiscal compact created by several members of the European Union (EU) is also examined.

The article provides information on the economic policy of Bulgaria as of September 2011. The consolidated budget in the first half of 2011 posted a deficit of 466 million U.S. dollars. Costs for social expenditure and subsidies rose while the public-sector wage bill declined, along with capital spending. Issues on the withdrawal of the license of Neftochim refinery by the Customs Agency to operate its warehousing facilities due to its failure to conform to a law passed in 2009 are discussed.

The article presents an outlook on the economic policy of Bulgaria. It explains why the Bulgarian government would be reluctant to change the present currency board in preparation for the adoption of the euro. It relates the possibility for Bulgaria to seek external financial assistance if the euro zone debt crisis intensifies. It discusses the plans of the government to privatize Bulgartabac and Sofia Airport.

The article presents information on key economic policy direction in Bulgaria for the month of June 2011. The government continues to pursue its privatization of public assets including the tobacco company Bulgartabac and the railway company BDZ. The shares of the government in the electricity distribution companies EVN and CEZ, and in the Bulgarian Stock Exchange-Sofia (BSE-Sofia), will also be privatized. As part of the policy restructuring, the government will control the budget deficit.

The article focuses on the economic policy of Bulgaria as of March 2011. Preliminary data from the finance ministry showed that the consolidated general budget deficit in 2010 reached 2.8 billion Bulgarian lev or 3.9% of officially estimated gross domestic product (GDP). Simeon Djankov, the country's deputy prime minister and finance minister, introduced measures aimed at strengthening fiscal stability further. It is believed that these measures will limit the budget deficit and public debt.

The article reports on the economic policy developments in Bulgaria as of February 2011. Following a significant monthly deficit of 384.7 million Bulgarian lev in October 2010, the country recorded a budgetary surplus of 36.5 million Bulgarian lev. The country has used 15.5% of the 6.7 billion euros of European Union (EU) structural funds available to it for 2007-2013 but the government plans to increase absorption to 20% by the end of 2011.

The article looks at the economic policy of Bulgaria as of January 2011. A significant deficit was reportedly recorded by the consolidated general government in October 2010, stemming from higher expenditure. Spending was recorded as 11.2% higher than in September and 13% higher than in October 2009. An improvement in the performance of tax revenue is also noted in 2010.

The article discusses the economic policy of Bulgaria. The country has posted a growth in tax revenue intake in August 2010. It relates the difficulty that the country may face in restraining expenditure in 2010 amidst complaints of insufficient funds by various ministries and interest groups. It expects limited growth of value-added tax (VAT) receipts in 2011 and subsequent years in line with weaker growth in private consumption and imports.