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This paper presents an analytical framework that captures the informational problems and tradeoffs that policy makers face when choosing between public goods (e.g., infrastructure) and industrial policies (e.g., firm or sector-specific subsidies). The paper first provides a discussion of the literature on industrial policies. It then presents an illustrative model, where the economy consists of a set of firms that vary by productivity and a government that can support firms through general or targeted expenditures. The paper examines the cases of full and asymmetric information on firm productivity. Working under full information, it describes the first-best allocation of government resources among firms according to their productivity. It then introduces uncertainty by restricting information regarding firm productivity to be private to the firm. The paper develops an optimal contract (which replicates the first-best) consisting of a tax-based mechanism that induces firms to reveal their true productivity. As this requires high government capacity, the paper considers other simpler policies, one of which is the provision of public goods to all firms. The paper concludes that providing public goods is likely to dominate industrial policies under most scenarios, especially when government capacity is low. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This is the background paper for the productivity extension of the World Bank's Long-Term Growth Model (LTGM). Based on an extensive literature review, the paper identifies the main determinants of economic productivity as innovation, education, market efficiency, infrastructure, and institutions. Based on underlying proxies, the paper constructs indexes representing each of the main categories of productivity determinants and, combining them through principal component analysis, obtains an overall determinant index. This is done for every year in the three decades spanning 1985-2015 and for more than 100 countries. In parallel, the paper presents a measure of total factor productivity (TFP), largely obtained from the Penn World Table, and assesses the pattern of productivity growth across regions and income groups over the same sample. The paper then examines the relationship between the measures of TFP and its determinants. The variance of productivity growth is decomposed into the share explained by each of its main determinants, and the relationship between productivity growth and the overall determinant index is identified. The variance decomposition results show that the highest contributor among the determinants to the variance in TFP growth is market efficiency for Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries and education for developing countries in the most recent decade. The regression results indicate that, controlling for country- and time-specific effects, TFP growth has a positive and significant relationship with the proposed TFP determinant index and a negative relationship with initial TFP. This relationship is then used to provide a set of simulations on the potential path of TFP growth if certain improvements on TFP determinants are achieved. The paper presents and discusses some of these simulations for groups of countries by geographic region and income level. In addition, as a country-specific illustration, the paper presents simulations on the potential path of TFP growth for Peru under various scenarios. An accompanying Excelbased toolkit, linked to the LTGM, provides a larger set of simulations and scenario analysis at the country level for the next few decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary This paper analyzes the impact of conditional cash transfers on the amount and type of child labor in poor households. It first develops a simple theoretical model where child labor and training are chosen to maximize inter-temporal household income, given constraints to social, household, and child endowments. Then, it conducts an empirical analysis using the randomized trial data collected to evaluate the 2006 Nicaragua conditional cash transfer (CCT) program. This social program transferred wealth to poor families in rural areas of the country conditional on children’s school attendance and health check-ups. One-third of the beneficiaries received, in addition, a wealth transfer to begin a non-agricultural business. The paper finds that the CCT program had a selective impact on the volume and quality of child labor, reducing it in the aggregate and steering it toward skill-forming activities. Specifically, the program appears to have reduced child labor for household chores and traditional farming while increasing it for non-traditional activities related to commerce and retail. These require the child to develop basic skills in reading and writing, arithmetic, and interpersonal relationships. Moreover, the paper finds that the source behind the increase in the better-quality type of child labor is not the basic component of the program but distinctively its business-grant intervention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Despite the tremendous human suffering caused by natural disasters, their effects on economic growth remain unclear, with some studies reporting negative, and others indicating no or even positive effects. To reconcile these seemingly contradictory findings reported in the literature, this study explores the effects of natural disasters on growth separately by disaster and economic sector. Applying a dynamic generalized method of moments panel estimator to a 1961–2005 cross-country panel dataset, three major insights emerge. First, disasters do affect economic growth but not always negatively, with effects that differ across types of disasters and economic sectors. Second, although moderate disasters (such as moderate floods) can have a positive growth effect in some sectors, severe disasters do not. Third, growth in developing countries is more sensitive to natural disasters than in developed ones, with more sectors affected and the effects larger and economically meaningful. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Summary: Is informal employment a safety net or a growth engine? To address this question, this paper studies the trends and cycles of informal employment. It first presents a theoretical model of long- and short-run behavior of informal labor. Then it analyzes these relationships empirically, using the share of self-employment in the labor force as the proxy for informal employment. In the long run, informality is larger when labor productivity is lower, government services weaker, and business flexibility less prevalent. In the short run, informal employment behaves counter-cyclically, indicating that it acts primarily as a safety net. The degree of counter-cyclicality, however, varies inversely with the size of informal labor itself. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the experience of economic growth in Peru during the last five decades. It describes its principal characteristics, explains the changes along the period and predicts its future path. The methodological approach consists in a combination of accounting and econometric techniques, both based in comparisons between countries and periods of time. The study discovers that the most important turning points of the economic growth were caused by changes in the productivity of all inputs, instead of the simple accumulation of capital. Specifically, the paper finds out that the recover of the economic growth in Peru during the 1990's was caused by the process of structural reforms and stabilization and lasts until now. The future growth of the economy depends on the continuation and deepness of this process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper addresses three questions: (1) what would have been the growth and income trajectory of Syria in the absence of war; (2) given the war, what explains the reduction in economic growth; and (3) what potential growth scenarios for Syria there could be in the aftermath of war. Conflict impact estimates point to negative GDP growth of −12% on average over 2011–2018, with output contracting to about one-third of the 2010 level. In post-conflict simulation scenarios, the growth drivers are affected by the assumed levels of reconstruction assistance, repatriation of refugees, and productivity improvements associated with three political settlement outcomes: a baseline (Sochi-plus) moderate scenario, an optimistic (robust political settlement) scenario, and a pessimistic (de facto balance of power) scenario. Respectively for these scenarios, GDP per capita average growth in the next two decades is projected to be 6.1%, 8.2%, or 3.1%, assuming a final and stable resolution of the conflict. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]