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Growth in Syria: losses from the war and potential recovery in the aftermath.
- Source :
-
Middle East Development Journal . Dec 2021, Vol. 13 Issue 2, p215-244. 30p. - Publication Year :
- 2021
-
Abstract
- This paper addresses three questions: (1) what would have been the growth and income trajectory of Syria in the absence of war; (2) given the war, what explains the reduction in economic growth; and (3) what potential growth scenarios for Syria there could be in the aftermath of war. Conflict impact estimates point to negative GDP growth of −12% on average over 2011–2018, with output contracting to about one-third of the 2010 level. In post-conflict simulation scenarios, the growth drivers are affected by the assumed levels of reconstruction assistance, repatriation of refugees, and productivity improvements associated with three political settlement outcomes: a baseline (Sochi-plus) moderate scenario, an optimistic (robust political settlement) scenario, and a pessimistic (de facto balance of power) scenario. Respectively for these scenarios, GDP per capita average growth in the next two decades is projected to be 6.1%, 8.2%, or 3.1%, assuming a final and stable resolution of the conflict. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 17938120
- Volume :
- 13
- Issue :
- 2
- Database :
- Academic Search Index
- Journal :
- Middle East Development Journal
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 153815808
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1080/17938120.2021.1930829