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Envisioning positive scenarios that recognize the multiple values of nature is fundamental for designing transformative changes in local socio-ecological systems. This study developed a protocol with three specifications for operationalizing the Nature Futures Framework (NFF) in a landscape scenario analysis using a multi-objective optimization framework composed of: (1) exploring nature-positive futures, (2) seeking alternative pathways for targets satisfying visions of plural values, and (3) screening key direct drivers to achieve the targets. This research conducted a case study of a rural landscape in northeastern Japan. First, 110 strategies of landscape management options were simulated from 2015 to 2100 using a forest landscape model, LANDIS-II. The simulation developed a data frame of four integrated indicators of the NFF values for each year and strategy. Second, nature-positive strategies were screened using the common values. Pareto optimal strategies were then identified to obtain equally good solutions. Finally, the key response options to achieve good nature-positive futures were identified using decision tree analysis. Our protocol identified (1) multiple, but few nature-positive and Pareto optimal strategies that satisfied NFF visions, (2) nature-positive, but not Pareto optimal strategies, and (3) non-nature-positive strategies. In most Pareto optimal strategies, the maximized value perspectives changed over time. Our protocol also identified key response options to achieve three different NFF value perspectives in the case study area: (1) clear or selective cutting in forestry and (2) solar PV installation on abandoned pastureland in agriculture and energy sectors. We discussed the implication for local landscape management, localizing NFF narratives to develop future scenarios and modeling practice of NFF. The protocol does not depend on a specific model and indicator. Thus, our scalable protocol can be applied to scenarios and model practices in

ContextForest management practices that conserve biodiversity and maximize carbon sequestration under climate change are needed. Although post-windthrow salvage logging and scarification can reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions within ecosystems by removing downed logs, they can greatly affect species composition. Additionally, salvage logging may increase CO2 emissions based on a cradle-to-grave analysis of salvaged wood.ObjectivesWe aimed to assess the effects of changes in climate, windthrow regimes and post-windthrow management on aboveground biomass, species composition, and carbon balance in the forest sector by combining forest landscape simulations and life cycle assessment (LCA).MethodsThe study landscape is a 12,169 ha hemiboreal forest located in northern Japan. We simulated 115 years (2015-2130) of forest dynamics in 36 scenarios based on features of the climate, windthrow regime, and management using the LANDIS-II forest landscape model. CO2 emissions related to management and salvaged wood were estimated by LCA.ResultsIncreases in the windthrow area, which was more vulnerable to climate warming, caused a shift to temperate broadleaved forests and a decrease in aboveground biomass. These were accelerated by the removal of advanced seedlings and dead wood, which greatly reduced the recruitment of Picea species. The 115-year cumulative net CO2 absorption of the forest sector, including carbon balance within ecosystems and CO2 emissions estimated by LCA, greatly decreased due to salvage logging (maximum 81%) and scarification (maximum 114%).ConclusionsLeaving downed logs and advanced seedlings is recommended to conserve boreal conifers and carbon sinks and maximize net CO2 absorption under climate change.

Comparing the future state of natural capital and ecosystem services with quantitative scenarios is essential in the decision-making process for a sustainable management of forest landscapes. In Sweden, an intensified forest management will likely be necessary to meet future demands of woody biomass as a source of bioenergy and building materials. At the same time an intensified forest harvest can cause conflicts with goals for biodiversity conservation and reduce the amount of carbon being stored the forest. This study conducted a scenario analysis to evaluate how different types of forest management would affect changes in carbon stock between the above ground biomass in a Swedish forest and the biomass harvested from the forest. Potential conflicts between the harvesting scenarios and the in Sweden critically endangered White-backed Woodpecker (Dendrocopos leucotos) was also evaluated. The White-backed Woodpecker can be seen as an umbrella species, which means that there are about 200 other endangered plant and animal species that depend on the same kind of forest environments and could therefore be a measure of the state of the forest biodiversity in Sweden. The forest landscape model LANDIS-II was used to simulate vegetation dynamics in species composition, age structure and biomass while considering disturbances only from harvesting. The simulation had a 100-year timeframe and used initial conditions gathered from a previous case study done in Sweden. The IPCC’s representative concentration pathway 4.5 was used to simulate impact from climate change. A business as usual scenario was simulated along with an intensified harvesting scenario and a conservation scenario to evaluate the impact on carbon sequestration in the aboveground biomass and the impact on the White-backed Woodpecker habitat between different forest management scenarios. The change in the stored and harvested carbon was calculated using the Carbon Stock Change Method and by comparing the, Att jämföra det framtida tillståndet för naturkapital och ekosystemtjänster med kvantitativa scenarier är väsentligt i beslutsprocessen för en hållbar förvaltning av skogslandskap. I Sverige kommer sannolikt ett intensifierat skogsbruk att bli nödvändigt för att möta framtida krav på biomassa till bioenergi och byggmaterial. Samtidigt kan en intensifierad skogsavverkning orsaka konflikter med målet att bevara biologisk mångfald och öka mängden kol lagrad i skogen. Denna studie genomförde en scenarioanalys för att utvärdera hur olika typer av skogsskötsel påverkar i kolbalansen i en svensk skog och mängden biomassa som avverkas från skogen. Potentiella konflikter mellan skogsskötsel och den i Sverige kritiskt hotade vitryggiga hackspetten (Dendrocopos leucotos) utvärderades också. Den vitryggiga hackspetten kan ses som en paraplyart, vilket innebär att det finns cirka 200 andra hotade växt- och djurarter som är beroende av samma sorts skogsmiljöer, och den kan därför vara ett mått på tillståndet för den skogsknutna biologiska mångfalden i Sverige. Skogslandskapsmodellen LANDIS-II användes för att simulera vegetationsdynamik för artsammansättning, åldersstruktur och biomassa samtidigt som man beaktade störningar endast från avverkning. Simuleringen gjorde för en 100-årsperiod och använde initiala förutsättningar från en tidigare fallstudie gjord i Sverige. IPCC:s representativa koncentrationsväg 4.5 användes för att simulera påverkan från klimatförändringar. Ett "business as usual"-scenario simulerades tillsammans med ett intensifierat avverkningsscenario och ett bevarandescenario för att utvärdera påverkan på kolbindning i den stående biomassan och påverkan på habitat för vitryggig hackspett mellan olika skogsskötselscenarier. Förändringen i det lagrade kolet beräknades med hjälp av ”Carbon Stock Change”-metoden och genom att jämföra de initiala biomassavärdena med värdena från de senaste tio åren av simuleringen. Ett habitatlämplighetspoäng gjordes med avseende på t

Comparing the future state of natural capital and ecosystem services with quantitative scenarios is essential in the decision-making process for a sustainable management of forest landscapes. In Sweden, an intensified forest management will likely be necessary to meet future demands of woody biomass as a source of bioenergy and building materials. At the same time an intensified forest harvest can cause conflicts with goals for biodiversity conservation and reduce the amount of carbon being stored the forest. This study conducted a scenario analysis to evaluate how different types of forest management would affect changes in carbon stock between the above ground biomass in a Swedish forest and the biomass harvested from the forest. Potential conflicts between the harvesting scenarios and the in Sweden critically endangered White-backed Woodpecker (Dendrocopos leucotos) was also evaluated. The White-backed Woodpecker can be seen as an umbrella species, which means that there are about 200 other endangered plant and animal species that depend on the same kind of forest environments and could therefore be a measure of the state of the forest biodiversity in Sweden. The forest landscape model LANDIS-II was used to simulate vegetation dynamics in species composition, age structure and biomass while considering disturbances only from harvesting. The simulation had a 100-year timeframe and used initial conditions gathered from a previous case study done in Sweden. The IPCC’s representative concentration pathway 4.5 was used to simulate impact from climate change. A business as usual scenario was simulated along with an intensified harvesting scenario and a conservation scenario to evaluate the impact on carbon sequestration in the aboveground biomass and the impact on the White-backed Woodpecker habitat between different forest management scenarios. The change in the stored and harvested carbon was calculated using the Carbon Stock Change Method and by comparing the, Att jämföra det framtida tillståndet för naturkapital och ekosystemtjänster med kvantitativa scenarier är väsentligt i beslutsprocessen för en hållbar förvaltning av skogslandskap. I Sverige kommer sannolikt ett intensifierat skogsbruk att bli nödvändigt för att möta framtida krav på biomassa till bioenergi och byggmaterial. Samtidigt kan en intensifierad skogsavverkning orsaka konflikter med målet att bevara biologisk mångfald och öka mängden kol lagrad i skogen. Denna studie genomförde en scenarioanalys för att utvärdera hur olika typer av skogsskötsel påverkar i kolbalansen i en svensk skog och mängden biomassa som avverkas från skogen. Potentiella konflikter mellan skogsskötsel och den i Sverige kritiskt hotade vitryggiga hackspetten (Dendrocopos leucotos) utvärderades också. Den vitryggiga hackspetten kan ses som en paraplyart, vilket innebär att det finns cirka 200 andra hotade växt- och djurarter som är beroende av samma sorts skogsmiljöer, och den kan därför vara ett mått på tillståndet för den skogsknutna biologiska mångfalden i Sverige. Skogslandskapsmodellen LANDIS-II användes för att simulera vegetationsdynamik för artsammansättning, åldersstruktur och biomassa samtidigt som man beaktade störningar endast från avverkning. Simuleringen gjorde för en 100-årsperiod och använde initiala förutsättningar från en tidigare fallstudie gjord i Sverige. IPCC:s representativa koncentrationsväg 4.5 användes för att simulera påverkan från klimatförändringar. Ett "business as usual"-scenario simulerades tillsammans med ett intensifierat avverkningsscenario och ett bevarandescenario för att utvärdera påverkan på kolbindning i den stående biomassan och påverkan på habitat för vitryggig hackspett mellan olika skogsskötselscenarier. Förändringen i det lagrade kolet beräknades med hjälp av ”Carbon Stock Change”-metoden och genom att jämföra de initiala biomassavärdena med värdena från de senaste tio åren av simuleringen. Ett habitatlämplighetspoäng gjordes med avseende på t

Post-windthrow management delays forest biomass recovery by altering the situation of disturbance legacies and can change the species composition. Although the short-term effects of post-windthrow management have been well studied, we do not have enough knowledge about the long-term effects of post-windthrow management on species composition and biomass recovery. Those effects associated with an increase in the windthrow frequency are also unknown. Although forest landscape models can effectively evaluate these effects, conventional models do not represent the regeneration process on downed logs, which is essential for simulating forest succession. We focused on hemiboreal forests in northern Japan and aimed to (1) incorporate the regeneration process on downed logs into LANDIS-II, which is one of the most used forest landscape models; (2) evaluate the long-term effects of post-windthrow management on tree species composition and aboveground biomass recovery; and (3) evaluate the associated long-term effects of interactions between post-windthrow management and increased windthrow frequency. We incorporated the regeneration process on downed logs into LANDIS-II by regulating the probability of the establishment of species that depend on dead wood, such as spruce, according to the availability of well-decayed dead wood. The incorporation of this process resulted in simulations of trends in species composition and aboveground biomass recovery after post-windthrow management that were more accurate than those produced by the original model. In the modified LANDIS-II simulation, reductions in dead wood and advanced seedlings due to salvage logging had little effect on the tree species composition or aboveground biomass recovery; however, the complete destruction of advanced seedlings by scarification induced a delay in aboveground biomass recovery and a shift to birch-dominated forests that continued for 100 years. In addition, the reduction in dead wood due to salvage