Leaving disturbance legacies conserves boreal conifers and maximizes net CO2 absorption under climate change and more frequent and larger windthrow regimes

ContextForest management practices that conserve biodiversity and maximize carbon sequestration under climate change are needed. Although post-windthrow salvage logging and scarification can reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions within ecosystems by removing downed logs, they can greatly affect species composition. Additionally, salvage logging may increase CO2 emissions based on a cradle-to-grave analysis of salvaged wood.ObjectivesWe aimed to assess the effects of changes in climate, windthrow regimes and post-windthrow management on aboveground biomass, species composition, and carbon balance in the forest sector by combining forest landscape simulations and life cycle assessment (LCA).MethodsThe study landscape is a 12,169 ha hemiboreal forest located in northern Japan. We simulated 115 years (2015-2130) of forest dynamics in 36 scenarios based on features of the climate, windthrow regime, and management using the LANDIS-II forest landscape model. CO2 emissions related to management and salvaged wood were estimated by LCA.ResultsIncreases in the windthrow area, which was more vulnerable to climate warming, caused a shift to temperate broadleaved forests and a decrease in aboveground biomass. These were accelerated by the removal of advanced seedlings and dead wood, which greatly reduced the recruitment of Picea species. The 115-year cumulative net CO2 absorption of the forest sector, including carbon balance within ecosystems and CO2 emissions estimated by LCA, greatly decreased due to salvage logging (maximum 81%) and scarification (maximum 114%).ConclusionsLeaving downed logs and advanced seedlings is recommended to conserve boreal conifers and carbon sinks and maximize net CO2 absorption under climate change.