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A análise do perfil e de projeções populacionais é tema vastamente trabalhado por diversas Ciências. Para estudos de Mercado Imobiliário, conhecer o perfil populacional e prever tendências do mesmo é intrínseco à uma ótima performance de produto, visto que este demanda longos períodos de desenvolvimento e operação, e que deverá ter performance adequada por décadas antes que seja viável pensar em uma mudança radical de uso. Com as rápidas mudanças que o perfil populacional vem sofrido nas últimas décadas, o desafio para empreendimento está em suprir as demandas de seu público alvo durante sua “vida útil”. O estudo populacional permite conhecer não só as demandas atuais, mas prever demandas futuras, antecipando uma solução de produto inovadora em um mercado ainda não suprido. O emergente envelhecimento populacional, no Brasil, é uma oportunidade crescente para o mercado imobiliário. Diante de avanços científicos, principalmente nas áreas da saúde e tecnologia, a expectativa de vida tem progredido mundialmente, implicando em um rápido aumento da parcela de idosos relativa à população total. Naturalmente, este mercado em vertiginosa ascensão, especialmente o de moradia, deve ter suas expectativas e necessidades estudadas. Parte do estudo de desenvolvimento de um projeto imobiliário deve conter análise do público alvo, principalmente no caso de idosos e aposentados que até hoje no Brasil não contam com muitas opções de produtos residenciais específicos e acessíveis à disposição.

[cat] La piràmide poblacional espanyola ha anat canviant en les últimes dècades a conseqüència de la transició demogràfica, que ha comportat una reducció de la fecunditat i un augment en l’esperança de vida. Actualment Espanya té una població envellida i aquest procés de canvi en l’estructura per edats tindrà continuïtat en el futur. S’han calculat diferents mesures per analitzar el grau d’envelliment a partir de dades de la població espanyola des de 1975. Per recollir l’augment de la longevitat en els últims anys i observar les diferències entre homes i dones s’han utilitzat indicadors que tenen en compte l’esperança de vida. A partir de les projeccions fins al 2065 s’ha vist que es mantindrà la mateixa tendència en els propers anys. S’hauran de prendre algunes mesures per tal de poder fer front a les repercussions de l’envelliment, que van més enllà de l’àmbit demogràfic i tindran un impacte econòmic, social i sanitari., [cat] La piràmide poblacional espanyola ha anat canviant en les últimes dècades a conseqüència de la transició demogràfica, que ha comportat una reducció de la fecunditat i un augment en l’esperança de vida. Actualment Espanya té una població envellida i aquest procés de canvi en l’estructura per edats tindrà continuïtat en el futur. S’han calculat diferents mesures per analitzar el grau d’envelliment a partir de dades de la població espanyola des de 1975. Per recollir l’augment de la longevitat en els últims anys i observar les diferències entre homes i dones s’han utilitzat indicadors que tenen en compte l’esperança de vida. A partir de les projeccions fins al 2065 s’ha vist que es mantindrà la mateixa tendència en els propers anys. S’hauran de prendre algunes mesures per tal de poder fer front a les repercussions de l’envelliment, que van més enllà de l’àmbit demogràfic i tindran un impacte econòmic, social i sanitari. [eng] The Spanish population pyramid has been changing in recent decades as a result of the demographic transition, which has led to a reduction in fertility and an increase in life expectancy. Nowadays Spain, as other developed countries, has an aging population and this process of change in the age structure will continue in the future. Different measures have been calculated to analyze the degree of ageing based on data from the Spanish population since 1975. To include the increase in longevity in recent years and observe the differences between men and women some indicators that take into account life expectancy have been calculated. Using the population and the life tables projected until 2065, it has been seen that the same trend will continue in the coming years. It can be observed that in 1975 one of each ten inhabitants were aged 65 or over and in 2065 it will be the triple. Dependency ratios and age measurements also have increased and this situation will be worse in the future. Governments will have to take measures in order to be able

Nighttime imagery has been used since the 1990s and has enabled the study of urban settlement dynamics. Since population censuses are expensive and cannot be con-ducted regularly, DMSP-OLS imagery is introduced as an alternative to project pop-ulation growth in the four main Colombian cities. These projections were made based on the digital pixel values of images before and after time calibration, as well as on relative radiance data. Cali and Barranquilla estimates are close to the population growth predicted by the National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) for 2005, while Bogotá and Medellín data show distortions that overestimated pop-ulation sizes. Findings reaffirm the potential of these images to monitor population dynamics in Colombia., Imagens noturnas têm sido utilizadas desde a década dos anos noventa e tem permit-ido o estudo das dinâmicas dos assentamentos urbanos. Assim mesmo, a geração de censos populacionais regularmente é um processo caro e, portanto, não podem ser constantemente replicados. Por esse motivo, o uso de imagens DMSP-OLS é apre-sentado como uma alternativa para determinar as trajetórias de crescimento popu-lacional das quatro principais cidades colombiana. Essas trajetórias foram estima-das a partir dos valores digitais de pixel das imagens antes e depois da calibração temporária, bem como com os dados da radiância relativa. As estimativas de Cali e Barranquilla aproximaram-se as trajetórias de crescimento populacional projetadas pelo Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estatística (DANE) para o ano 2005; pelo contrário, os dados em Bogotá e Medellín apresentaram distorções que super-estimaram o tamanho da população. Os resultados reafirmam o potencial dessas imagens para monitorar as dinâmicas populacionais na Colômbia., Las imágenes nocturnas se han empleado desde la década de los 90, permitiendo estudiar dinámicas de asentamientos urbanos. La generación de censos poblacionales regularmente es un proceso costoso, por ende no pueden ser replicados constantemente. Por esta razón se presenta como alternativa el uso de imágenes DMSP-OLS para determinar las trayectorias de crecimiento poblacional de las cuatro principales ciudades colombianas. Dichas trayectorias fueron estimadas a partir de los valores digitales de píxel de las imágenes antes y después de la calibración temporal, así como con los datos de la radiancia relativa. Las estimaciones de Cali y Barranquilla resultaron cercanas a las trayectorias de crecimiento poblacional proyectadas por el DANE para el año 2005, por el contrario, los datos en Bogotá y Medellín presentaron distorsiones que sobreestimaron los tamaños poblacionales. Los hallazgos reafirman el potencial de dichas imágenes para monitorear las dinámicas poblacionales en Colombia.

Nighttime imagery has been used since the 1990s and has enabled the study of urban settlement dynamics. Since population censuses are expensive and cannot be con-ducted regularly, DMSP-OLS imagery is introduced as an alternative to project pop-ulation growth in the four main Colombian cities. These projections were made based on the digital pixel values of images before and after time calibration, as well as on relative radiance data. Cali and Barranquilla estimates are close to the population growth predicted by the National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) for 2005, while Bogotá and Medellín data show distortions that overestimated pop-ulation sizes. Findings reaffirm the potential of these images to monitor population dynamics in Colombia., Imagens noturnas têm sido utilizadas desde a década dos anos noventa e tem permit-ido o estudo das dinâmicas dos assentamentos urbanos. Assim mesmo, a geração de censos populacionais regularmente é um processo caro e, portanto, não podem ser constantemente replicados. Por esse motivo, o uso de imagens DMSP-OLS é apre-sentado como uma alternativa para determinar as trajetórias de crescimento popu-lacional das quatro principais cidades colombiana. Essas trajetórias foram estima-das a partir dos valores digitais de pixel das imagens antes e depois da calibração temporária, bem como com os dados da radiância relativa. As estimativas de Cali e Barranquilla aproximaram-se as trajetórias de crescimento populacional projetadas pelo Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estatística (DANE) para o ano 2005; pelo contrário, os dados em Bogotá e Medellín apresentaram distorções que super-estimaram o tamanho da população. Os resultados reafirmam o potencial dessas imagens para monitorar as dinâmicas populacionais na Colômbia., Las imágenes nocturnas se han empleado desde la década de los 90, permitiendo estudiar dinámicas de asentamientos urbanos. La generación de censos poblacionales regularmente es un proceso costoso, por ende no pueden ser replicados constantemente. Por esta razón se presenta como alternativa el uso de imágenes DMSP-OLS para determinar las trayectorias de crecimiento poblacional de las cuatro principales ciudades colombianas. Dichas trayectorias fueron estimadas a partir de los valores digitales de píxel de las imágenes antes y después de la calibración temporal, así como con los datos de la radiancia relativa. Las estimaciones de Cali y Barranquilla resultaron cercanas a las trayectorias de crecimiento poblacional proyectadas por el DANE para el año 2005, por el contrario, los datos en Bogotá y Medellín presentaron distorsiones que sobreestimaron los tamaños poblacionales. Los hallazgos reafirman el potencial de dichas imágenes para monitorear las dinámicas poblacionales en Colombia.

The headship rates method (HRM) of household projections based on the share of household heads in the total population of the same demographic characteristics (age, sex, nationality, marital status, etc.) is the most commonly used method, especially by statistical institutes and planning institutions. The specific rates of household heads by age are calculated by dividing the number of household hold-ers of a certain age with the total number of residents of the appropriate age. The future number of households is then simply projected on the basis of population projections by age and assumptions about the future changes of HR. The HRM is based on the projection of the future age structure of the population. In that sense, the choice of methods of population projection, as well as the meth-od of projecting HR-s have determining impact on the outcome of household projections. Given the methodological inconsistency typical for official popula-tion projections in Serbia and significant differences in addressing uncertainty of the future population change between deterministic and probabilistic approach in making population projections, the decision to use a probabilistic projection of the population of Serbia as the basis for calculating the future number of house-holds and their structure according to the age of the household head proved to be a logical choice. However, as the basic aim of this article is to show the simple method of household projections, the above-mentioned stochastic projection is used in utterly deterministic manner. The median of the prediction interval of the population distributed across age is interpreted as the most probable future, or as a prognosis. The HR-s based on the age structure estimates and estimated number of households by age of the household head from Household budget survey (HBS) are used for the purpose of HR projecting so that the number of observa-tions would be large enough for calculating inclination parameters. The obtained

The headship rates method (HRM) of household projections based on the share of household heads in the total population of the same demographic characteristics (age, sex, nationality, marital status, etc.) is the most commonly used method, especially by statistical institutes and planning institutions. The specific rates of household heads by age are calculated by dividing the number of household hold-ers of a certain age with the total number of residents of the appropriate age. The future number of households is then simply projected on the basis of population projections by age and assumptions about the future changes of HR. The HRM is based on the projection of the future age structure of the population. In that sense, the choice of methods of population projection, as well as the meth-od of projecting HR-s have determining impact on the outcome of household projections. Given the methodological inconsistency typical for official popula-tion projections in Serbia and significant differences in addressing uncertainty of the future population change between deterministic and probabilistic approach in making population projections, the decision to use a probabilistic projection of the population of Serbia as the basis for calculating the future number of house-holds and their structure according to the age of the household head proved to be a logical choice. However, as the basic aim of this article is to show the simple method of household projections, the above-mentioned stochastic projection is used in utterly deterministic manner. The median of the prediction interval of the population distributed across age is interpreted as the most probable future, or as a prognosis. The HR-s based on the age structure estimates and estimated number of households by age of the household head from Household budget survey (HBS) are used for the purpose of HR projecting so that the number of observa-tions would be large enough for calculating inclination parameters. The obtained

The aging population is anticipated to have a large impact on the number of incident dialysis patients, as the risk of end-stage kidney disease increases with age. This study aimed to examine trends in the sex- and age-specific incidence rates of dialysis between 2008 and 2012, and to assess the impact of population aging on the number of incident dialysis patients over the next decade in Japan. Incidence was calculated using published data and Japan's population statistics. The 2012 incidence was extrapolated, and projected future demographic changes within the Japanese population were used to estimate the number of incident dialysis patients in 2020 and 2025. As a general trend, the sex- and age-specific incidence rates of dialysis decreased gradually between 2008 and 2012, except among men aged ≥80 years. The total number of incident dialysis patients was projected to increase by 12.8% from 36 590 in 2012 to 41 270 in 2025. Greater increases were observed in the oldest age group (≥85 years). In 2025, the number of incident dialysis patients in this group was projected to increase by 92.6% in men and 62.2% in women. This study shows the number of patients who initiate dialysis treatment is projected to increase over the next decade in Japan due to aging of the population. Effective strategies are needed to offset the challenges faced by the aging population, with a particular focus on octogenarians and older, given the notable proportion of patients requiring dialysis treatment in the future.

This study used two modelling approaches to predict future urban landscape for the Baltimore-Washington metropolitan areas. In the first approach, we implemented traditional SLEUTH urban simulation model by using publicly available and locally-developed land cover and transportation data. Historical land cover data from 1996, 2001, 2006, and 2011 were used to calibrate SLEUTH model and predict urban growth from 2011 to 2070. SLEUTH model achieved 94.9% of overall accuracy for a validation year of 2014. For the second modelling approach, we predicted future county-level population (e.g., 2050) using historical population data and time-series forecasting. We then used future population projection of 2050, aided by strong population-imperviousness statistical relationship (R2, 0.78-0.86), to predict total impervious surface area for each county. These population-predicted total impervious surface areas were compared to SLEUTH model output, at the county-aggregated spatial scale. For most counties, SLEUTH generated substantially higher number of impervious pixels. An annual urban growth rate of 6.24% for SLEUTH model was much higher than the population-based approach (1.33%), suggesting a large discrepancy between these two modelling approaches. The SLEUTH simulation model, although achieved high accuracy for 2014 validation, may have over-predicted urban growth for our study area. For population-predicted impervious surface area, we further developed a lookup table approach to integrate SLEUTH out and generated spatially explicit urban map for 2050. This lookup table approach has high potential to integrate population-predicted and SLEUTH-predicted urban landscape, especially when future population can be predicted with reasonable accuracy.

This study used two modelling approaches to predict future urban landscape for the Baltimore-Washington metropolitan areas. In the first approach, we implemented traditional SLEUTH urban simulation model by using publicly available and locally-developed land cover and transportation data. Historical land cover data from 1996, 2001, 2006, and 2011 were used to calibrate SLEUTH model and predict urban growth from 2011 to 2070. SLEUTH model achieved 94.9% of overall accuracy for a validation year of 2014. For the second modelling approach, we predicted future county-level population (e.g., 2050) using historical population data and time-series forecasting. We then used future population projection of 2050, aided by strong population-imperviousness statistical relationship (R2, 0.78-0.86), to predict total impervious surface area for each county. These population-predicted total impervious surface areas were compared to SLEUTH model output, at the county-aggregated spatial scale. For most counties, SLEUTH generated substantially higher number of impervious pixels. An annual urban growth rate of 6.24% for SLEUTH model was much higher than the population-based approach (1.33%), suggesting a large discrepancy between these two modelling approaches. The SLEUTH simulation model, although achieved high accuracy for 2014 validation, may have over-predicted urban growth for our study area. For population-predicted impervious surface area, we further developed a lookup table approach to integrate SLEUTH out and generated spatially explicit urban map for 2050. This lookup table approach has high potential to integrate population-predicted and SLEUTH-predicted urban landscape, especially when future population can be predicted with reasonable accuracy.

La ciudad de Ávila se configura, en la actualidad, como un compacto entramado urbano. Este ha conocido un crecimiento espacial sin precedentes a lo largo de los últimos sesenta años y, particularmente, durante la primera década de los años dos mil, fruto de una vinculación, que no siempre está correspondida, entre la evolución poblacional y el desarrollo residencial. Una ampliación del espacio construido -cuyo soporte estratégico se ha fundamentado, además, en la dialéctica establecida entre el centro y la periferia- dimensionado desorbitadamente por la conjunción de una serie de intereses urbanísticos completamente truncados por el estallido de la crisis. Esta manera de seguir construyendo la ciudad -recogida explícitamente por el planeamiento- parece ser más una utopía que una realidad, a tenor de las proyecciones de población realizadas que atisban un horizonte demográfico a corto y medio plazo nada halagüeño., The city of Ávila is configured, currently, as a compact urban structure. This space has seen a unprecedented growth over the last sixty years and, particularly, during the first decade of the new century, which is not always reciprocated between the population evolution and residential development. An extension of the urban space -whose strategic support has also established based on the dialectic between center and periphery- sized exorbitantly by the conjunction of a number of urban interests completely truncated by the economic crisis. This way to continue building the city -which are stated explicitly by urban planning- seems to be more a utopia than a reality, according to population projections that herald a demographic horizon not flattering.

La ciudad de Ávila se configura, en la actualidad, como un compacto entramado urbano. Este ha conocido un crecimiento espacial sin precedentes a lo largo de los últimos sesenta años y, particularmente, durante la primera década de los años dos mil, fruto de una vinculación, que no siempre está correspondida, entre la evolución poblacional y el desarrollo residencial. Una ampliación del espacio construido -cuyo soporte estratégico se ha fundamentado, además, en la dialéctica establecida entre el centro y la periferia- dimensionado desorbitadamente por la conjunción de una serie de intereses urbanísticos completamente truncados por el estallido de la crisis. Esta manera de seguir construyendo la ciudad -recogida explícitamente por el planeamiento- parece ser más una utopía que una realidad, a tenor de las proyecciones de población realizadas que atisban un horizonte demográfico a corto y medio plazo nada halagüeño., The city of Ávila is configured, currently, as a compact urban structure. This space has seen a unprecedented growth over the last sixty years and, particularly, during the first decade of the new century, which is not always reciprocated between the population evolution and residential development. An extension of the urban space -whose strategic support has also established based on the dialectic between center and periphery- sized exorbitantly by the conjunction of a number of urban interests completely truncated by the economic crisis. This way to continue building the city -which are stated explicitly by urban planning- seems to be more a utopia than a reality, according to population projections that herald a demographic horizon not flattering.

Maryland's 60+ population projections by jurisdiction, 2010-2014

Population forecasts are crucial for many social, political and economic decisions. Official population projections rely in general on deterministic models which use different scenarios for future vital rates to indicate uncertainty. However, this technique shows substantial weak points such as assuming absolute correlations between the demographic components. In this paper, we argue that a stochastic projection alternative, with no a priori assumptions provides point forecasts and probabilistic prediction intervals for demographic parameters in addition. Age-sex specific population forecast for Germany is derived through a stochastic population renewal process using forecasts of mortality, fertility and migration. Time series models with demographic restrictions are used to describe immigration, emigration and time varying indices of mortality and fertility rates. These models are then used in the simulation of future vital rates to obtain age-specific population forecast using the cohort-component method. The consequence for the German pension system is discussed. To maintain the actual average pension level the premium rate of the present system rises at least by 50% as the old-age ratio nearly doubles by 2040.

Population forecasts are crucial for many social, political and economic decisions. Official population projections rely in general on deterministic models which use different scenarios for future vital rates to indicate uncertainty. However, this technique shows substantial weak points such as assuming absolute correlations between the demographic components. In this paper, we argue that a stochastic projection alternative, with no a priori assumptions provides point forecasts and probabilistic prediction intervals for demographic parameters in addition. Age-sex specific population forecast for Germany is derived through a stochastic population renewal process using forecasts of mortality, fertility and migration. Time series models with demographic restrictions are used to describe immigration, emigration and time varying indices of mortality and fertility rates. These models are then used in the simulation of future vital rates to obtain age-specific population forecast using the cohort-component method. The consequence for the German pension system is discussed. To maintain the actual average pension level the premium rate of the present system rises at least by 50% as the old-age ratio nearly doubles by 2040.

In demography there are a variety of mathematical functions that are used to represent population dynamics, such as the exponential and logistic functions. However, these only partially describe reality because the assumptions behind their mathematical representations do not entirely capture the dynamics of populations. The aim of this study was to propose a mathematical function that reflects the evolution of human populations between 1980 and 2005, and which adequately reflects the trajectory of the rate of population growth observed within this period. Using this new function we forecaste the world’s populations to the year 2050., En demografía se han desarrollado una diversidad de funciones matemáticas con el fin de representar la dinámica de la población, entre las que se encuentran la exponencial y la logística. Estas funciones describen parcialmente la realidad, debido a que las hipótesis que están detrás de las representaciones matemáticas antes mencionadas no captan la dinámica de la población. El objetivo del presente trabajo es construir una función matemática que muestre la evolución de la población del planeta entre 1980 y el 2005, al tiempo que refleje en forma adecuada la trayectoria de la tasa de crecimiento de la población observada en el periodo señalado. También se realizó un pronóstico de la población mundial al 2050 a partir de la función encontrada.

In demography there are a variety of mathematical functions that are used to represent population dynamics, such as the exponential and logistic functions. However, these only partially describe reality because the assumptions behind their mathematical representations do not entirely capture the dynamics of populations. The aim of this study was to propose a mathematical function that reflects the evolution of human populations between 1980 and 2005, and which adequately reflects the trajectory of the rate of population growth observed within this period. Using this new function we forecaste the world’s populations to the year 2050., En demografía se han desarrollado una diversidad de funciones matemáticas con el fin de representar la dinámica de la población, entre las que se encuentran la exponencial y la logística. Estas funciones describen parcialmente la realidad, debido a que las hipótesis que están detrás de las representaciones matemáticas antes mencionadas no captan la dinámica de la población. El objetivo del presente trabajo es construir una función matemática que muestre la evolución de la población del planeta entre 1980 y el 2005, al tiempo que refleje en forma adecuada la trayectoria de la tasa de crecimiento de la población observada en el periodo señalado. También se realizó un pronóstico de la población mundial al 2050 a partir de la función encontrada.

In demography there are a variety of mathematical functions that are used to represent population dynamics, such as the exponential and logistic functions. However, these only partially describe reality because the assumptions behind their mathematical representations do not entirely capture the dynamics of populations. The aim of this study was to propose a mathematical function that reflects the evolution of human populations between 1980 and 2005, and which adequately reflects the trajectory of the rate of population growth observed within this period. Using this new function we forecaste the world’s populations to the year 2050., En demografía se han desarrollado una diversidad de funciones matemáticas con el fin de representar la dinámica de la población, entre las que se encuentran la exponencial y la logística. Estas funciones describen parcialmente la realidad, debido a que las hipótesis que están detrás de las representaciones matemáticas antes mencionadas no captan la dinámica de la población. El objetivo del presente trabajo es construir una función matemática que muestre la evolución de la población del planeta entre 1980 y el 2005, al tiempo que refleje en forma adecuada la trayectoria de la tasa de crecimiento de la población observada en el periodo señalado. También se realizó un pronóstico de la población mundial al 2050 a partir de la función encontrada.

This article's aim is the elaboration of scenarios on population and households up to the year 2015 in Catalonia, with the objective of estimate housing demand. Previously, an analysis of the recent trends of population and households is done using municipal register data (Padrón continuo) until 2006 as well as 2001 Census data on households and dwellings characteristics. Following the introduction, section 2 studies population flows and stocks in relation to the migratory movements with origin in and destination to Catalonia, as well as the immigrants' basic demographic trends (sex and age structure). Section 3 analyses household formation patterns and housing characteristics, focusing in the differences existing between immigrant and autochthonous populations. Finally, section 4 presents four scenarios for population and household until 2015. Main conclusions are in section 5.L'objectif de cet article est la réalisation de scénarios prospectifs de population et ménages à l'horizon 2015 pour Catalogne, comme une voie pour estimer la demande de logement. Avant, on analyse l'évolution récente grâce aux données démographiques du Padron continu jusqu'à l'année 2006 et l'information du recensement espagnol du 2001 sur les caractéristiques des ménages et des logements. Après l'introduction, la section 2 analyse la croissance des stocks de migrants et des flux migratoires avec origine ou destination en Catalogne, et leurs caractéristiques démographiques basiques (structure par sexe et âge). La section 3 étudie la formation des ménages et les caractéristiques du logement, avec une attention spéciale aux différences qui existent entre la population issue de l'immigration et la population autochtone. En fin, la section 4 présente les quatre scénarios de population et ménages jusqu'à 2015 et la section 5 contient les conclusions.., El objetivo del artículo es la realización de escenarios prospectivos hasta el año 2015 de población y hogares, así como su relación con la demanda de viviendas, para Cataluña. Para ello se realiza un análisis previo utilizando los datos de población del Padrón continuo hasta el año 2006, así como la información relativa a las características de los hogares y viviendas del Censo de población de 2001. En la primera parte se estudia el crecimiento de los stocks y de los flujos relacionados con las migraciones con origen y destino en Cataluña, así como sus características demográficas básicas (estructura por sexo y edad). En la segunda parte se analizan las pautas de formación de hogares y las características de la vivienda de dicha población, especialmente los factores diferenciales respecto a la población autóctona. Finalmente, en la tercera parte, se elaboran cuatro escenarios prospectivos de población y hogares hasta el año 2015.

In demography there are a variety of mathematical functions that are used to represent population dynamics, such as the exponential and logistic functions. However, these only partially describe reality because the assumptions behind their mathematical representations do not entirely capture the dynamics of populations. The aim of this study was to propose a mathematical function that reflects the evolution of human populations between 1980 and 2005, and which adequately reflects the trajectory of the rate of population growth observed within this period. Using this new function we forecaste the world’s populations to the year 2050., En demografía se han desarrollado una diversidad de funciones matemáticas con el fin de representar la dinámica de la población, entre las que se encuentran la exponencial y la logística. Estas funciones describen parcialmente la realidad, debido a que las hipótesis que están detrás de las representaciones matemáticas antes mencionadas no captan la dinámica de la población. El objetivo del presente trabajo es construir una función matemática que muestre la evolución de la población del planeta entre 1980 y el 2005, al tiempo que refleje en forma adecuada la trayectoria de la tasa de crecimiento de la población observada en el periodo señalado. También se realizó un pronóstico de la población mundial al 2050 a partir de la función encontrada.

The Northern Territory government’s recent release of a ‘Stronger Regions Policy’ (Northern Territory Government 2003) raises major questions of public policy and social scientific interest. At the heart of this policy is the gradual establishment of regional governance structures, broader in conception than the current 65 Northern Territory local government councils, both spatially and functionally. As an exercise in restructuring, the key feature is a series of partnership agreements negotiated between the Territory government and these new regional representative bodies. Currently, one such body exists, a number are close to formation, and supposedly they will ultimately extend across the Territory. The agreements associated with them will serve to identify mutually determined social, economic, and service delivery outcomes together with the means to achieve them. Significantly, in the context of the present paper, these will be codified in a series of negotiated regional development plans, and they will be subject to a regular process of evaluation and monitoring against measurable outcomes. This initiative is significant. It represents a shift towards regional planning, as opposed to sectoral planning, as the functional basis of Northern Territory government administrative processes. Viewed historically, it signals a conscious effort to move away from a silo model of planning and development focused on specific sectors such as Asian trade, growth of the Darwin urban area, pastoral management, the mining sector, and the separate servicing of Aboriginal communities, towards an approach which views Territory development as an integrated whole with the development strengths and weaknesses of one region impacting on all others. It is also an equity and efficiency-based model, with needs assessment, equalisation of resource allocation, and measured outcomes as the key drivers. For reasons of spatial distribution and historical exclusion, the implications of this stra

Generally, population projections aim at helping both private and public sector planners to determine the future action scenery and formulate short and medium term policies addressed to specific clients. The present article highlights some important trends and their challenges for planning and managing different social areas, in the light of Paraná ongoing demographic evolution and of the State municipality population projection results recently disclosed by IPARDES/IBGE., Em geral, as projeções populacionais têm como principal propósito subsidiar os planejadores, tanto das esferas públicas quanto dos setores privados, na delimitação de cenários futuros de atuação e na formulação de políticas de curto e médio prazos voltadas a clientelas específicas. À luz da evolução demográfica em curso no Paraná e dos resultados da projeção da população dos municípios do Estado, divulgada recentemente pelo IPARDES/IBGE, o artigo destaca algumas importantes tendências que se prenunciam e chama a atenção para alguns desafios que elas impõem para o planejamento e gestão das distintas esferas sociais.

Generally, population projections aim at helping both private and public sector planners to determine the future action scenery and formulate short and medium term policies addressed to specific clients. The present article highlights some important trends and their challenges for planning and managing different social areas, in the light of Paraná ongoing demographic evolution and of the State municipality population projection results recently disclosed by IPARDES/IBGE., Em geral, as projeções populacionais têm como principal propósito subsidiar os planejadores, tanto das esferas públicas quanto dos setores privados, na delimitação de cenários futuros de atuação e na formulação de políticas de curto e médio prazos voltadas a clientelas específicas. À luz da evolução demográfica em curso no Paraná e dos resultados da projeção da população dos municípios do Estado, divulgada recentemente pelo IPARDES/IBGE, o artigo destaca algumas importantes tendências que se prenunciam e chama a atenção para alguns desafios que elas impõem para o planejamento e gestão das distintas esferas sociais.

Generally, population projections aim at helping both private and public sector planners to determine the future action scenery and formulate short and medium term policies addressed to specific clients. The present article highlights some important trends and their challenges for planning and managing different social areas, in the light of Paraná ongoing demographic evolution and of the State municipality population projection results recently disclosed by IPARDES/IBGE., Em geral, as projeções populacionais têm como principal propósito subsidiar os planejadores, tanto das esferas públicas quanto dos setores privados, na delimitação de cenários futuros de atuação e na formulação de políticas de curto e médio prazos voltadas a clientelas específicas. À luz da evolução demográfica em curso no Paraná e dos resultados da projeção da população dos municípios do Estado, divulgada recentemente pelo IPARDES/IBGE, o artigo destaca algumas importantes tendências que se prenunciam e chama a atenção para alguns desafios que elas impõem para o planejamento e gestão das distintas esferas sociais.

Generally, population projections aim at helping both private and public sector planners to determine the future action scenery and formulate short and medium term policies addressed to specific clients. The present article highlights some important trends and their challenges for planning and managing different social areas, in the light of Paraná ongoing demographic evolution and of the State municipality population projection results recently disclosed by IPARDES/IBGE., Em geral, as projeções populacionais têm como principal propósito subsidiar os planejadores, tanto das esferas públicas quanto dos setores privados, na delimitação de cenários futuros de atuação e na formulação de políticas de curto e médio prazos voltadas a clientelas específicas. À luz da evolução demográfica em curso no Paraná e dos resultados da projeção da população dos municípios do Estado, divulgada recentemente pelo IPARDES/IBGE, o artigo destaca algumas importantes tendências que se prenunciam e chama a atenção para alguns desafios que elas impõem para o planejamento e gestão das distintas esferas sociais.

Recent poverty trends for Appalachia are examined in this report, which looks at how the use of the Census Bureau's annual Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE) would affect ARC's distressed county designations if the SAIPE were used to replace the decennial census estimates.

The International Journal of Population Geography is international in scope and aims to cover "developed and less developed countries embracing all the main fields of interest in population geography". The journal is published by John Wiley and Sons Ltd in association with the Population Geography Research Group (PGRG). The website provides access to contents and abstracts as well as details of instructions to authors and membership of the editorial board. Full text articles are available to users of subscribing institutions or on a pay-per-view basis. The journal was renamed in 2004 as Population, Space and Place.