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25 results on '"PERMAFROST CARBON"'

1. Pan-Arctic soil element bioavailability estimations

Author: Stimmler, Peter, Goeckede, Mathias, Elberling, Bo, Natali, Susan, Kuhry, Peter, Perron, Nia, Lacroix, Fabrice, Hugelius, Gustaf, Sonnentag, Oliver, Strauss, Jens, Minions, Christina, Sommer, Michael, Schaller, Joerg, Stimmler, Peter, Goeckede, Mathias, Elberling, Bo, Natali, Susan, Kuhry, Peter, Perron, Nia, Lacroix, Fabrice, Hugelius, Gustaf, Sonnentag, Oliver, Strauss, Jens, Minions, Christina, Sommer, Michael, and Schaller, Joerg
Abstract: Arctic soils store large amounts of organic carbon and other elements, such as amorphous silicon, silicon, calcium, iron, aluminum, and phosphorous. Global warming is projected to be most pronounced in the Arctic, leading to thawing permafrost which, in turn, changes the soil element availability. To project how biogeochemical cycling in Arctic ecosystems will be affected by climate change, there is a need for data on element availability. Here, we analyzed the amorphous silicon (ASi) content as a solid fraction of the soils as well as Mehlich III extractions for the bioavailability of silicon (Si), calcium (Ca), iron (Fe), phosphorus (P), and aluminum (Al) from 574 soil samples from the circumpolar Arctic region. We show large differences in the ASi fraction and in Si, Ca, Fe, Al, and P availability among different lithologies and Arctic regions. We summarize these data in pan-Arctic maps of the ASi fraction and available Si, Ca, Fe, P, and Al concentrations, focusing on the top 100 cm of Arctic soil. Furthermore, we provide element availability values for the organic and mineral layers of the seasonally thawing active layer as well as for the uppermost permafrost layer. Our spatially explicit data on differences in the availability of elements between the different lithological classes and regions now and in the future will improve Arctic Earth system models for estimating current and future carbon and nutrient feedbacks under climate change (https://doi.org/10.17617/3.8KGQUN, Schaller and Goeckede, 2022)., Arctic soils store large amounts of organic carbon and other elements, such as amorphous silicon, silicon, calcium, iron, aluminum, and phosphorous. Global warming is projected to be most pronounced in the Arctic, leading to thawing permafrost which, in turn, changes the soil element availability. To project how biogeochemical cycling in Arctic ecosystems will be affected by climate change, there is a need for data on element availability. Here, we analyzed the amorphous silicon (ASi) content as a solid fraction of the soils as well as Mehlich III extractions for the bioavailability of silicon (Si), calcium (Ca), iron (Fe), phosphorus (P), and aluminum (Al) from 574 soil samples from the circumpolar Arctic region. We show large differences in the ASi fraction and in Si, Ca, Fe, Al, and P availability among different lithologies and Arctic regions. We summarize these data in pan-Arctic maps of the ASi fraction and available Si, Ca, Fe, P, and Al concentrations, focusing on the top 100 cm of Arctic soil. Furthermore, we provide element availability values for the organic and mineral layers of the seasonally thawing active layer as well as for the uppermost permafrost layer. Our spatially explicit data on differences in the availability of elements between the different lithological classes and regions now and in the future will improve Arctic Earth system models for estimating current and future carbon and nutrient feedbacks under climate change (, Schaller and Goeckede, 2022).
Published: 2023

2. Pan-Arctic soil element bioavailability estimations

Author: Stimmler, Peter, Goeckede, Mathias, Elberling, Bo, Natali, Susan, Kuhry, Peter, Perron, Nia, Lacroix, Fabrice, Hugelius, Gustaf, Sonnentag, Oliver, Strauss, Jens, Minions, Christina, Sommer, Michael, Schaller, Joerg, Stimmler, Peter, Goeckede, Mathias, Elberling, Bo, Natali, Susan, Kuhry, Peter, Perron, Nia, Lacroix, Fabrice, Hugelius, Gustaf, Sonnentag, Oliver, Strauss, Jens, Minions, Christina, Sommer, Michael, and Schaller, Joerg
Abstract: Arctic soils store large amounts of organic carbon and other elements, such as amorphous silicon, silicon, calcium, iron, aluminum, and phosphorous. Global warming is projected to be most pronounced in the Arctic, leading to thawing permafrost which, in turn, changes the soil element availability. To project how biogeochemical cycling in Arctic ecosystems will be affected by climate change, there is a need for data on element availability. Here, we analyzed the amorphous silicon (ASi) content as a solid fraction of the soils as well as Mehlich III extractions for the bioavailability of silicon (Si), calcium (Ca), iron (Fe), phosphorus (P), and aluminum (Al) from 574 soil samples from the circumpolar Arctic region. We show large differences in the ASi fraction and in Si, Ca, Fe, Al, and P availability among different lithologies and Arctic regions. We summarize these data in pan-Arctic maps of the ASi fraction and available Si, Ca, Fe, P, and Al concentrations, focusing on the top 100 cm of Arctic soil. Furthermore, we provide element availability values for the organic and mineral layers of the seasonally thawing active layer as well as for the uppermost permafrost layer. Our spatially explicit data on differences in the availability of elements between the different lithological classes and regions now and in the future will improve Arctic Earth system models for estimating current and future carbon and nutrient feedbacks under climate change (https://doi.org/10.17617/3.8KGQUN, Schaller and Goeckede, 2022)., Arctic soils store large amounts of organic carbon and other elements, such as amorphous silicon, silicon, calcium, iron, aluminum, and phosphorous. Global warming is projected to be most pronounced in the Arctic, leading to thawing permafrost which, in turn, changes the soil element availability. To project how biogeochemical cycling in Arctic ecosystems will be affected by climate change, there is a need for data on element availability. Here, we analyzed the amorphous silicon (ASi) content as a solid fraction of the soils as well as Mehlich III extractions for the bioavailability of silicon (Si), calcium (Ca), iron (Fe), phosphorus (P), and aluminum (Al) from 574 soil samples from the circumpolar Arctic region. We show large differences in the ASi fraction and in Si, Ca, Fe, Al, and P availability among different lithologies and Arctic regions. We summarize these data in pan-Arctic maps of the ASi fraction and available Si, Ca, Fe, P, and Al concentrations, focusing on the top 100 cm of Arctic soil. Furthermore, we provide element availability values for the organic and mineral layers of the seasonally thawing active layer as well as for the uppermost permafrost layer. Our spatially explicit data on differences in the availability of elements between the different lithological classes and regions now and in the future will improve Arctic Earth system models for estimating current and future carbon and nutrient feedbacks under climate change (, Schaller and Goeckede, 2022).
Published: 2023

3. Permafrost and Climate Change : Carbon Cycle Feedbacks From the Warming Arctic

Author: Schuur, Edward A. G., Abbott, Benjamin W., Commane, Roisin, Ernakovich, Jessica, Euskirchen, Eugenie, Hugelius, Gustaf, Grosse, Guido, Jones, Miriam, Koven, Charlie, Leshyk, Victor, Lawrence, David, Loranty, Michael M., Mauritz, Marguerite, Olefeldt, David, Natali, Susan, Rodenhizer, Heidi, Salmon, Verity, Schädel, Christina, Strauss, Jens, Treat, Claire, Turetsky, Merritt, Schuur, Edward A. G., Abbott, Benjamin W., Commane, Roisin, Ernakovich, Jessica, Euskirchen, Eugenie, Hugelius, Gustaf, Grosse, Guido, Jones, Miriam, Koven, Charlie, Leshyk, Victor, Lawrence, David, Loranty, Michael M., Mauritz, Marguerite, Olefeldt, David, Natali, Susan, Rodenhizer, Heidi, Salmon, Verity, Schädel, Christina, Strauss, Jens, Treat, Claire, and Turetsky, Merritt
Abstract: Rapid Arctic environmental change affects the entire Earth system as thawing permafrost ecosystems release greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Understanding how much permafrost carbon will be released, over what time frame, and what the relative emissions of carbon dioxide and methane will be is key for understanding the impact on global climate. In addition, the response of vegetation in a warming climate has the potential to offset at least some of the accelerating feedback to the climate from permafrost carbon. Temperature, organic carbon, and ground ice are key regulators for determining the impact of permafrost ecosystems on the global carbon cycle. Together, these encompass services of permafrost relevant to global society as well as to the people living in the region and help to determine the landscape-level response of this region to a changing climate.
Published: 2022
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4. Mobilization of subsurface carbon pools driven by permafrost thaw and reactivation of groundwater flow : a virtual experiment

Author: Mohammed, Aaron A., Guimond, Julia A., Bense, Victor F., Jamieson, Rob C., McKenzie, Jeffrey M., Kurylyk, Barret L., Mohammed, Aaron A., Guimond, Julia A., Bense, Victor F., Jamieson, Rob C., McKenzie, Jeffrey M., and Kurylyk, Barret L.
Abstract: Permafrost thaw leads to an increase in groundwater circulation and potential mobilization of organic carbon sequestered in deep Arctic sediments (e.g. 3-25 m below surface). Upon thaw, a portion of this carbon may be transported along new groundwater flow paths to surface waters or be microbially transformed or immobilized by in-situ biogeochemical reactions. The fate of thaw-mobilized carbon impacts surface water productivity and global climate. We developed a numerical model to investigate the effects of subsurface warming, permafrost thaw, and resultant increased groundwater flow on the mobilization and reactive transport of dissolved organic carbon (DOC). Synthetic simulations demonstrate that mobilization and groundwater-borne DOC export are determined by subsurface thermo-chemical conditions that control the interplay of DOC production (organic matter degradation), mineralization, and sorption. Results suggest that peak carbon mobilization from these depths precedes complete permafrost loss, occurring within two centuries of thaw initiation with the development of supra-permafrost groundwater flow systems. Additionally, this study highlights the lack of field data needed to constrain these new models and apply them in real-word site-specific applications, specifically the amount and spatial variability of organic carbon in deep sediments and data to constrain DOC production rates for groundwater systems in degrading permafrost. Modeling results point to key biogeochemical parameters related to organic matter and carbon bioavailability to be measured in the field to bridge the gap between models and observations. This study provides a foundation for further developing a physics-based modeling framework to incorporate the influence of groundwater flow and permafrost thaw on permafrost DOC dynamics and export, which is imperative for advancing understanding and prediction of carbon release and terrestrial-aquatic carbon exchange in warming Artic landscapes in th
Published: 2022

5. Thermokarst Lagoons:A Core-Based Assessment of Depositional Characteristics and an Estimate of Carbon Pools on the Bykovsky Peninsula

Author: Jenrich, Maren, Angelopoulos, Michael, Grosse, Guido, Overduin, Pier Paul, Schirrmeister, Lutz, Nitze, Ingmar, Biskaborn, Boris K., Liebner, Susanne, Grigoriev, Mikhail, Murray, Andrew, Jongejans, Loeka L., Strauss, Jens, Jenrich, Maren, Angelopoulos, Michael, Grosse, Guido, Overduin, Pier Paul, Schirrmeister, Lutz, Nitze, Ingmar, Biskaborn, Boris K., Liebner, Susanne, Grigoriev, Mikhail, Murray, Andrew, Jongejans, Loeka L., and Strauss, Jens
Abstract: Permafrost region subsurface organic carbon (OC) pools are a major component of the terrestrial carbon cycle and vulnerable to a warming climate. Thermokarst lagoons are an important transition stage with complex depositional histories during which permafrost and lacustrine carbon pools are transformed along eroding Arctic coasts. The effects of temperature and salinity changes during thermokarst lake to lagoon transitions on thaw history and lagoon deposits are understudied. We analyzed two 30-m-long sediment cores from two thermokarst lagoons on the Bykovsky Peninsula, Northeast Siberia, using sedimentological, geochronological, hydrochemical, and biogeochemical techniques. Using remote sensing we distinguished between a semi-closed and a nearly closed lagoon. We (1) characterized the depositional history, (2) studied the impact of marine inundation on ice-bearing permafrost and taliks, and (3) quantified the OC pools for different stages of thermokarst lagoons. Fluvial and former Yedoma deposits were found at depth between 30 and 8.5 m, while lake and lagoon deposits formed the upper layers. The electrical conductivity of the pore water indicated hypersaline conditions for the semi-closed lagoon (max: 108 mS/cm), while fresh to brackish conditions were observed beneath a 5 m-thick surface saline layer at the nearly closed lagoon. The deposits had a mean OC content of 15 ± 2 kg/m3, with higher values in the semi-closed lagoon. Based on the cores we estimated a total OC pool of 5.7 Mt-C for the first 30 m of sediment below five mapped lagoons on the Bykovsky Peninsula. Our results suggest that paleo river branches shaped the middle Pleistocene landscape followed by late Pleistocene Yedoma permafrost accumulation and early Holocene lake development. Afterward, lake drainage, marine flooding, and bedfast ice formation caused the saline enrichment of pore water, which led to cryotic talik development. We find that the OC-pool of Arctic lagoons may compri
Published: 2021

6. Methane Production Pathway Regulated Proximally by Substrate Availability and Distally by Temperature in a High-Latitude Mire Complex

Author: Chang, KY, Chang, KY, Riley, WJ, Brodie, EL, McCalley, CK, Crill, PM, Grant, RF, Chang, KY, Chang, KY, Riley, WJ, Brodie, EL, McCalley, CK, Crill, PM, and Grant, RF
Abstract: Projected 21st century changes in high-latitude climate are expected to have significant impacts on permafrost thaw, which could cause substantial increases in emissions to the atmosphere of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4, which has a global warming potential 28 times larger than CO2 over a 100-year horizon). However, predicted CH4 emission rates are very uncertain due to difficulties in modeling complex interactions among hydrological, thermal, biogeochemical, and plant processes. Methanogenic production pathways (i.e., acetoclastic [AM] and hydrogenotrophic [HM]) and the magnitude of CH4 emissions may both change as permafrost thaws, but a mechanistic analysis of controls on such shifts in CH4 dynamics is lacking. In this study, we reproduced observed shifts in CH4 emissions and production pathways with a comprehensive biogeochemical model (ecosys) at the Stordalen Mire in subarctic Sweden. Our results demonstrate that soil temperature changes differently affect AM and HM substrate availability, which regulates magnitudes of AM, HM, and thereby net CH4 emissions. We predict very large landscape-scale, vertical, and temporal variations in the modeled HM fraction, highlighting that measurement strategies for metrics that compare CH4 production pathways could benefit from model informed scale of temporal and spatial variance. Finally, our findings suggest that the warming and wetting trends projected in northern peatlands could enhance peatland AM fraction and CH4 emissions even without further permafrost degradation.
Published: 2019

7. Methane Production Pathway Regulated Proximally by Substrate Availability and Distally by Temperature in a High-Latitude Mire Complex

Author: Chang, Kuang-Yu, Riley, William J., Brodie, Eoin L., McCalley, Carmody K., Crill, Patrick M., Grant, Robert F., Chang, Kuang-Yu, Riley, William J., Brodie, Eoin L., McCalley, Carmody K., Crill, Patrick M., and Grant, Robert F.
Abstract: Projected 21st century changes in high-latitude climate are expected to have significant impacts on permafrost thaw, which could cause substantial increases in emissions to the atmosphere of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4, which has a global warming potential 28 times larger than CO2 over a 100-year horizon). However, predicted CH4 emission rates are very uncertain due to difficulties in modeling complex interactions among hydrological, thermal, biogeochemical, and plant processes. Methanogenic production pathways (i.e., acetoclastic [AM] and hydrogenotrophic [HM]) and the magnitude of CH4 emissions may both change as permafrost thaws, but a mechanistic analysis of controls on such shifts in CH4 dynamics is lacking. In this study, we reproduced observed shifts in CH4 emissions and production pathways with a comprehensive biogeochemical model (ecosys) at the Stordalen Mire in subarctic Sweden. Our results demonstrate that soil temperature changes differently affect AM and HM substrate availability, which regulates magnitudes of AM, HM, and thereby net CH4 emissions. We predict very large landscape-scale, vertical, and temporal variations in the modeled HM fraction, highlighting that measurement strategies for metrics that compare CH4 production pathways could benefit from model informed scale of temporal and spatial variance. Finally, our findings suggest that the warming and wetting trends projected in northern peatlands could enhance peatland AM fraction and CH4 emissions even without further permafrost degradation.
Published: 2019
Full Text: View/download PDF

8. Methane Production Pathway Regulated Proximally by Substrate Availability and Distally by Temperature in a High-Latitude Mire Complex

Author: Chang, KY, Chang, KY, Riley, WJ, Brodie, EL, McCalley, CK, Crill, PM, Grant, RF, Chang, KY, Chang, KY, Riley, WJ, Brodie, EL, McCalley, CK, Crill, PM, and Grant, RF
Abstract: Projected 21st century changes in high-latitude climate are expected to have significant impacts on permafrost thaw, which could cause substantial increases in emissions to the atmosphere of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4, which has a global warming potential 28 times larger than CO2 over a 100-year horizon). However, predicted CH4 emission rates are very uncertain due to difficulties in modeling complex interactions among hydrological, thermal, biogeochemical, and plant processes. Methanogenic production pathways (i.e., acetoclastic [AM] and hydrogenotrophic [HM]) and the magnitude of CH4 emissions may both change as permafrost thaws, but a mechanistic analysis of controls on such shifts in CH4 dynamics is lacking. In this study, we reproduced observed shifts in CH4 emissions and production pathways with a comprehensive biogeochemical model (ecosys) at the Stordalen Mire in subarctic Sweden. Our results demonstrate that soil temperature changes differently affect AM and HM substrate availability, which regulates magnitudes of AM, HM, and thereby net CH4 emissions. We predict very large landscape-scale, vertical, and temporal variations in the modeled HM fraction, highlighting that measurement strategies for metrics that compare CH4 production pathways could benefit from model informed scale of temporal and spatial variance. Finally, our findings suggest that the warming and wetting trends projected in northern peatlands could enhance peatland AM fraction and CH4 emissions even without further permafrost degradation.
Published: 2019

9. Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire : an expert assessment

Author: Abbott, Benjamin W., Jones, Jeremy B., Schuur, Edward A. G., Chapin, F. Stuart, III, Bowden, William B., Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia, Epstein, Howard E., Flannigan, Michael D., Harms, Tamara K., Hollingsworth, Teresa N., Mack, Michelle C., McGuire, A. David, Natali, Susan M., Rocha, Adrian V., Tank, Suzanne E., Turetsky, Merritt R., Vonk, Jorien E., Wickland, Kimberly P., Aiken, George R., Alexander, Heather D., Amon, Rainer M. W., Benscoter, Brian W., Bergeron, Yves, Bishop, Kevin, Blarquez, Olivier, Bond-Lamberty, Ben, Breen, Amy L., Buffam, Ishi, Cai, Yihua, Carcaillet, Christopher, Carey, Sean K., Chen, Jing M., Chen, Han Y. H., Christensen, Torben R., Cooper, Lee W., Cornelissen, J. Hans C., de Groot, William J., DeLuca, Thomas H., Dorrepaal, Ellen, Fetcher, Ned, Finlay, Jacques C., Forbes, Bruce C., French, Nancy H. F., Gauthier, Sylvie, Girardin, Martin P., Goetz, Scott J., Goldammer, Johann G., Gough, Laura, Grogan, Paul, Guo, Laodong, Higuera, Philip E., Hinzman, Larry, Hu, Feng Sheng, Hugelius, Gustaf, Jafarov, Elchin E., Jandt, Randi, Johnstone, Jill F., Karlsson, Jan, Kasischke, Eric S., Kattner, Gerhard, Kelly, Ryan, Keuper, Frida, Kling, George W., Kortelainen, Pirkko, Kouki, Jari, Kuhry, Peter, Laudon, Hjalmar, Laurion, Isabelle, Macdonald, Robie W., Mann, Paul J., Martikainen, Pertti J., McClelland, James W., Molau, Ulf, Oberbauer, Steven F., Olefeldt, David, Pare, David, Parisien, Marc-Andre, Payette, Serge, Peng, Changhui, Pokrovsky, Oleg S., Rastetter, Edward B., Raymond, Peter A., Raynolds, Martha K., Rein, Guillermo, Reynolds, James F., Robards, Martin, Rogers, Brendan M., Schaedel, Christina, Schaefer, Kevin, Schmidt, Inger K., Shvidenko, Anatoly, Sky, Jasper, Spencer, Robert G. M., Starr, Gregory, Striegl, Robert G., Teisserenc, Roman, Tranvik, Lars J., Virtanen, Tarmo, Welker, Jeffrey M., Zimov, Sergei, Abbott, Benjamin W., Jones, Jeremy B., Schuur, Edward A. G., Chapin, F. Stuart, III, Bowden, William B., Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia, Epstein, Howard E., Flannigan, Michael D., Harms, Tamara K., Hollingsworth, Teresa N., Mack, Michelle C., McGuire, A. David, Natali, Susan M., Rocha, Adrian V., Tank, Suzanne E., Turetsky, Merritt R., Vonk, Jorien E., Wickland, Kimberly P., Aiken, George R., Alexander, Heather D., Amon, Rainer M. W., Benscoter, Brian W., Bergeron, Yves, Bishop, Kevin, Blarquez, Olivier, Bond-Lamberty, Ben, Breen, Amy L., Buffam, Ishi, Cai, Yihua, Carcaillet, Christopher, Carey, Sean K., Chen, Jing M., Chen, Han Y. H., Christensen, Torben R., Cooper, Lee W., Cornelissen, J. Hans C., de Groot, William J., DeLuca, Thomas H., Dorrepaal, Ellen, Fetcher, Ned, Finlay, Jacques C., Forbes, Bruce C., French, Nancy H. F., Gauthier, Sylvie, Girardin, Martin P., Goetz, Scott J., Goldammer, Johann G., Gough, Laura, Grogan, Paul, Guo, Laodong, Higuera, Philip E., Hinzman, Larry, Hu, Feng Sheng, Hugelius, Gustaf, Jafarov, Elchin E., Jandt, Randi, Johnstone, Jill F., Karlsson, Jan, Kasischke, Eric S., Kattner, Gerhard, Kelly, Ryan, Keuper, Frida, Kling, George W., Kortelainen, Pirkko, Kouki, Jari, Kuhry, Peter, Laudon, Hjalmar, Laurion, Isabelle, Macdonald, Robie W., Mann, Paul J., Martikainen, Pertti J., McClelland, James W., Molau, Ulf, Oberbauer, Steven F., Olefeldt, David, Pare, David, Parisien, Marc-Andre, Payette, Serge, Peng, Changhui, Pokrovsky, Oleg S., Rastetter, Edward B., Raymond, Peter A., Raynolds, Martha K., Rein, Guillermo, Reynolds, James F., Robards, Martin, Rogers, Brendan M., Schaedel, Christina, Schaefer, Kevin, Schmidt, Inger K., Shvidenko, Anatoly, Sky, Jasper, Spencer, Robert G. M., Starr, Gregory, Striegl, Robert G., Teisserenc, Roman, Tranvik, Lars J., Virtanen, Tarmo, Welker, Jeffrey M., and Zimov, Sergei
Abstract: As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.
Published: 2016
Full Text: View/download PDF

10. Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire : an expert assessment

Author: Abbott, Benjamin W., Jones, Jeremy B., Schuur, Edward A. G., Chapin, F. Stuart, III, Bowden, William B., Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia, Epstein, Howard E., Flannigan, Michael D., Harms, Tamara K., Hollingsworth, Teresa N., Mack, Michelle C., McGuire, A. David, Natali, Susan M., Rocha, Adrian V., Tank, Suzanne E., Turetsky, Merritt R., Vonk, Jorien E., Wickland, Kimberly P., Aiken, George R., Alexander, Heather D., Amon, Rainer M. W., Benscoter, Brian W., Bergeron, Yves, Bishop, Kevin, Blarquez, Olivier, Bond-Lamberty, Ben, Breen, Amy L., Buffam, Ishi, Cai, Yihua, Carcaillet, Christopher, Carey, Sean K., Chen, Jing M., Chen, Han Y. H., Christensen, Torben R., Cooper, Lee W., Cornelissen, J. Hans C., de Groot, William J., DeLuca, Thomas H., Dorrepaal, Ellen, Fetcher, Ned, Finlay, Jacques C., Forbes, Bruce C., French, Nancy H. F., Gauthier, Sylvie, Girardin, Martin P., Goetz, Scott J., Goldammer, Johann G., Gough, Laura, Grogan, Paul, Guo, Laodong, Higuera, Philip E., Hinzman, Larry, Hu, Feng Sheng, Hugelius, Gustaf, Jafarov, Elchin E., Jandt, Randi, Johnstone, Jill F., Karlsson, Jan, Kasischke, Eric S., Kattner, Gerhard, Kelly, Ryan, Keuper, Frida, Kling, George W., Kortelainen, Pirkko, Kouki, Jari, Kuhry, Peter, Laudon, Hjalmar, Laurion, Isabelle, Macdonald, Robie W., Mann, Paul J., Martikainen, Pertti J., McClelland, James W., Molau, Ulf, Oberbauer, Steven F., Olefeldt, David, Pare, David, Parisien, Marc-Andre, Payette, Serge, Peng, Changhui, Pokrovsky, Oleg S., Rastetter, Edward B., Raymond, Peter A., Raynolds, Martha K., Rein, Guillermo, Reynolds, James F., Robards, Martin, Rogers, Brendan M., Schaedel, Christina, Schaefer, Kevin, Schmidt, Inger K., Shvidenko, Anatoly, Sky, Jasper, Spencer, Robert G. M., Starr, Gregory, Striegl, Robert G., Teisserenc, Roman, Tranvik, Lars J., Virtanen, Tarmo, Welker, Jeffrey M., Zimov, Sergei, Abbott, Benjamin W., Jones, Jeremy B., Schuur, Edward A. G., Chapin, F. Stuart, III, Bowden, William B., Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia, Epstein, Howard E., Flannigan, Michael D., Harms, Tamara K., Hollingsworth, Teresa N., Mack, Michelle C., McGuire, A. David, Natali, Susan M., Rocha, Adrian V., Tank, Suzanne E., Turetsky, Merritt R., Vonk, Jorien E., Wickland, Kimberly P., Aiken, George R., Alexander, Heather D., Amon, Rainer M. W., Benscoter, Brian W., Bergeron, Yves, Bishop, Kevin, Blarquez, Olivier, Bond-Lamberty, Ben, Breen, Amy L., Buffam, Ishi, Cai, Yihua, Carcaillet, Christopher, Carey, Sean K., Chen, Jing M., Chen, Han Y. H., Christensen, Torben R., Cooper, Lee W., Cornelissen, J. Hans C., de Groot, William J., DeLuca, Thomas H., Dorrepaal, Ellen, Fetcher, Ned, Finlay, Jacques C., Forbes, Bruce C., French, Nancy H. F., Gauthier, Sylvie, Girardin, Martin P., Goetz, Scott J., Goldammer, Johann G., Gough, Laura, Grogan, Paul, Guo, Laodong, Higuera, Philip E., Hinzman, Larry, Hu, Feng Sheng, Hugelius, Gustaf, Jafarov, Elchin E., Jandt, Randi, Johnstone, Jill F., Karlsson, Jan, Kasischke, Eric S., Kattner, Gerhard, Kelly, Ryan, Keuper, Frida, Kling, George W., Kortelainen, Pirkko, Kouki, Jari, Kuhry, Peter, Laudon, Hjalmar, Laurion, Isabelle, Macdonald, Robie W., Mann, Paul J., Martikainen, Pertti J., McClelland, James W., Molau, Ulf, Oberbauer, Steven F., Olefeldt, David, Pare, David, Parisien, Marc-Andre, Payette, Serge, Peng, Changhui, Pokrovsky, Oleg S., Rastetter, Edward B., Raymond, Peter A., Raynolds, Martha K., Rein, Guillermo, Reynolds, James F., Robards, Martin, Rogers, Brendan M., Schaedel, Christina, Schaefer, Kevin, Schmidt, Inger K., Shvidenko, Anatoly, Sky, Jasper, Spencer, Robert G. M., Starr, Gregory, Striegl, Robert G., Teisserenc, Roman, Tranvik, Lars J., Virtanen, Tarmo, Welker, Jeffrey M., and Zimov, Sergei
Abstract: As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.
Published: 2016
Full Text: View/download PDF

11. Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire : an expert assessment

Author: Abbott, Benjamin W., Jones, Jeremy B., Schuur, Edward A. G., Chapin, F. Stuart, III, Bowden, William B., Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia, Epstein, Howard E., Flannigan, Michael D., Harms, Tamara K., Hollingsworth, Teresa N., Mack, Michelle C., McGuire, A. David, Natali, Susan M., Rocha, Adrian V., Tank, Suzanne E., Turetsky, Merritt R., Vonk, Jorien E., Wickland, Kimberly P., Aiken, George R., Alexander, Heather D., Amon, Rainer M. W., Benscoter, Brian W., Bergeron, Yves, Bishop, Kevin, Blarquez, Olivier, Bond-Lamberty, Ben, Breen, Amy L., Buffam, Ishi, Cai, Yihua, Carcaillet, Christopher, Carey, Sean K., Chen, Jing M., Chen, Han Y. H., Christensen, Torben R., Cooper, Lee W., Cornelissen, J. Hans C., de Groot, William J., DeLuca, Thomas H., Dorrepaal, Ellen, Fetcher, Ned, Finlay, Jacques C., Forbes, Bruce C., French, Nancy H. F., Gauthier, Sylvie, Girardin, Martin P., Goetz, Scott J., Goldammer, Johann G., Gough, Laura, Grogan, Paul, Guo, Laodong, Higuera, Philip E., Hinzman, Larry, Hu, Feng Sheng, Hugelius, Gustaf, Jafarov, Elchin E., Jandt, Randi, Johnstone, Jill F., Karlsson, Jan, Kasischke, Eric S., Kattner, Gerhard, Kelly, Ryan, Keuper, Frida, Kling, George W., Kortelainen, Pirkko, Kouki, Jari, Kuhry, Peter, Laudon, Hjalmar, Laurion, Isabelle, Macdonald, Robie W., Mann, Paul J., Martikainen, Pertti J., McClelland, James W., Molau, Ulf, Oberbauer, Steven F., Olefeldt, David, Pare, David, Parisien, Marc-Andre, Payette, Serge, Peng, Changhui, Pokrovsky, Oleg S., Rastetter, Edward B., Raymond, Peter A., Raynolds, Martha K., Rein, Guillermo, Reynolds, James F., Robards, Martin, Rogers, Brendan M., Schaedel, Christina, Schaefer, Kevin, Schmidt, Inger K., Shvidenko, Anatoly, Sky, Jasper, Spencer, Robert G. M., Starr, Gregory, Striegl, Robert G., Teisserenc, Roman, Tranvik, Lars J., Virtanen, Tarmo, Welker, Jeffrey M., Zimov, Sergei, Abbott, Benjamin W., Jones, Jeremy B., Schuur, Edward A. G., Chapin, F. Stuart, III, Bowden, William B., Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia, Epstein, Howard E., Flannigan, Michael D., Harms, Tamara K., Hollingsworth, Teresa N., Mack, Michelle C., McGuire, A. David, Natali, Susan M., Rocha, Adrian V., Tank, Suzanne E., Turetsky, Merritt R., Vonk, Jorien E., Wickland, Kimberly P., Aiken, George R., Alexander, Heather D., Amon, Rainer M. W., Benscoter, Brian W., Bergeron, Yves, Bishop, Kevin, Blarquez, Olivier, Bond-Lamberty, Ben, Breen, Amy L., Buffam, Ishi, Cai, Yihua, Carcaillet, Christopher, Carey, Sean K., Chen, Jing M., Chen, Han Y. H., Christensen, Torben R., Cooper, Lee W., Cornelissen, J. Hans C., de Groot, William J., DeLuca, Thomas H., Dorrepaal, Ellen, Fetcher, Ned, Finlay, Jacques C., Forbes, Bruce C., French, Nancy H. F., Gauthier, Sylvie, Girardin, Martin P., Goetz, Scott J., Goldammer, Johann G., Gough, Laura, Grogan, Paul, Guo, Laodong, Higuera, Philip E., Hinzman, Larry, Hu, Feng Sheng, Hugelius, Gustaf, Jafarov, Elchin E., Jandt, Randi, Johnstone, Jill F., Karlsson, Jan, Kasischke, Eric S., Kattner, Gerhard, Kelly, Ryan, Keuper, Frida, Kling, George W., Kortelainen, Pirkko, Kouki, Jari, Kuhry, Peter, Laudon, Hjalmar, Laurion, Isabelle, Macdonald, Robie W., Mann, Paul J., Martikainen, Pertti J., McClelland, James W., Molau, Ulf, Oberbauer, Steven F., Olefeldt, David, Pare, David, Parisien, Marc-Andre, Payette, Serge, Peng, Changhui, Pokrovsky, Oleg S., Rastetter, Edward B., Raymond, Peter A., Raynolds, Martha K., Rein, Guillermo, Reynolds, James F., Robards, Martin, Rogers, Brendan M., Schaedel, Christina, Schaefer, Kevin, Schmidt, Inger K., Shvidenko, Anatoly, Sky, Jasper, Spencer, Robert G. M., Starr, Gregory, Striegl, Robert G., Teisserenc, Roman, Tranvik, Lars J., Virtanen, Tarmo, Welker, Jeffrey M., and Zimov, Sergei
Abstract: As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.
Published: 2016
Full Text: View/download PDF

12. Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire : an expert assessment

Author: Abbott, Benjamin W., Jones, Jeremy B., Schuur, Edward A. G., Chapin, F. Stuart, III, Bowden, William B., Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia, Epstein, Howard E., Flannigan, Michael D., Harms, Tamara K., Hollingsworth, Teresa N., Mack, Michelle C., McGuire, A. David, Natali, Susan M., Rocha, Adrian V., Tank, Suzanne E., Turetsky, Merritt R., Vonk, Jorien E., Wickland, Kimberly P., Aiken, George R., Alexander, Heather D., Amon, Rainer M. W., Benscoter, Brian W., Bergeron, Yves, Bishop, Kevin, Blarquez, Olivier, Bond-Lamberty, Ben, Breen, Amy L., Buffam, Ishi, Cai, Yihua, Carcaillet, Christopher, Carey, Sean K., Chen, Jing M., Chen, Han Y. H., Christensen, Torben R., Cooper, Lee W., Cornelissen, J. Hans C., de Groot, William J., DeLuca, Thomas H., Dorrepaal, Ellen, Fetcher, Ned, Finlay, Jacques C., Forbes, Bruce C., French, Nancy H. F., Gauthier, Sylvie, Girardin, Martin P., Goetz, Scott J., Goldammer, Johann G., Gough, Laura, Grogan, Paul, Guo, Laodong, Higuera, Philip E., Hinzman, Larry, Hu, Feng Sheng, Hugelius, Gustaf, Jafarov, Elchin E., Jandt, Randi, Johnstone, Jill F., Karlsson, Jan, Kasischke, Eric S., Kattner, Gerhard, Kelly, Ryan, Keuper, Frida, Kling, George W., Kortelainen, Pirkko, Kouki, Jari, Kuhry, Peter, Laudon, Hjalmar, Laurion, Isabelle, Macdonald, Robie W., Mann, Paul J., Martikainen, Pertti J., McClelland, James W., Molau, Ulf, Oberbauer, Steven F., Olefeldt, David, Pare, David, Parisien, Marc-Andre, Payette, Serge, Peng, Changhui, Pokrovsky, Oleg S., Rastetter, Edward B., Raymond, Peter A., Raynolds, Martha K., Rein, Guillermo, Reynolds, James F., Robards, Martin, Rogers, Brendan M., Schaedel, Christina, Schaefer, Kevin, Schmidt, Inger K., Shvidenko, Anatoly, Sky, Jasper, Spencer, Robert G. M., Starr, Gregory, Striegl, Robert G., Teisserenc, Roman, Tranvik, Lars J., Virtanen, Tarmo, Welker, Jeffrey M., Zimov, Sergei, Abbott, Benjamin W., Jones, Jeremy B., Schuur, Edward A. G., Chapin, F. Stuart, III, Bowden, William B., Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia, Epstein, Howard E., Flannigan, Michael D., Harms, Tamara K., Hollingsworth, Teresa N., Mack, Michelle C., McGuire, A. David, Natali, Susan M., Rocha, Adrian V., Tank, Suzanne E., Turetsky, Merritt R., Vonk, Jorien E., Wickland, Kimberly P., Aiken, George R., Alexander, Heather D., Amon, Rainer M. W., Benscoter, Brian W., Bergeron, Yves, Bishop, Kevin, Blarquez, Olivier, Bond-Lamberty, Ben, Breen, Amy L., Buffam, Ishi, Cai, Yihua, Carcaillet, Christopher, Carey, Sean K., Chen, Jing M., Chen, Han Y. H., Christensen, Torben R., Cooper, Lee W., Cornelissen, J. Hans C., de Groot, William J., DeLuca, Thomas H., Dorrepaal, Ellen, Fetcher, Ned, Finlay, Jacques C., Forbes, Bruce C., French, Nancy H. F., Gauthier, Sylvie, Girardin, Martin P., Goetz, Scott J., Goldammer, Johann G., Gough, Laura, Grogan, Paul, Guo, Laodong, Higuera, Philip E., Hinzman, Larry, Hu, Feng Sheng, Hugelius, Gustaf, Jafarov, Elchin E., Jandt, Randi, Johnstone, Jill F., Karlsson, Jan, Kasischke, Eric S., Kattner, Gerhard, Kelly, Ryan, Keuper, Frida, Kling, George W., Kortelainen, Pirkko, Kouki, Jari, Kuhry, Peter, Laudon, Hjalmar, Laurion, Isabelle, Macdonald, Robie W., Mann, Paul J., Martikainen, Pertti J., McClelland, James W., Molau, Ulf, Oberbauer, Steven F., Olefeldt, David, Pare, David, Parisien, Marc-Andre, Payette, Serge, Peng, Changhui, Pokrovsky, Oleg S., Rastetter, Edward B., Raymond, Peter A., Raynolds, Martha K., Rein, Guillermo, Reynolds, James F., Robards, Martin, Rogers, Brendan M., Schaedel, Christina, Schaefer, Kevin, Schmidt, Inger K., Shvidenko, Anatoly, Sky, Jasper, Spencer, Robert G. M., Starr, Gregory, Striegl, Robert G., Teisserenc, Roman, Tranvik, Lars J., Virtanen, Tarmo, Welker, Jeffrey M., and Zimov, Sergei
Abstract: As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.
Published: 2016
Full Text: View/download PDF

13. Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire : an expert assessment

Author: Abbott, Benjamin W., Jones, Jeremy B., Schuur, Edward A. G., Chapin, F. Stuart, III, Bowden, William B., Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia, Epstein, Howard E., Flannigan, Michael D., Harms, Tamara K., Hollingsworth, Teresa N., Mack, Michelle C., McGuire, A. David, Natali, Susan M., Rocha, Adrian V., Tank, Suzanne E., Turetsky, Merritt R., Vonk, Jorien E., Wickland, Kimberly P., Aiken, George R., Alexander, Heather D., Amon, Rainer M. W., Benscoter, Brian W., Bergeron, Yves, Bishop, Kevin, Blarquez, Olivier, Bond-Lamberty, Ben, Breen, Amy L., Buffam, Ishi, Cai, Yihua, Carcaillet, Christopher, Carey, Sean K., Chen, Jing M., Chen, Han Y. H., Christensen, Torben R., Cooper, Lee W., Cornelissen, J. Hans C., de Groot, William J., DeLuca, Thomas H., Dorrepaal, Ellen, Fetcher, Ned, Finlay, Jacques C., Forbes, Bruce C., French, Nancy H. F., Gauthier, Sylvie, Girardin, Martin P., Goetz, Scott J., Goldammer, Johann G., Gough, Laura, Grogan, Paul, Guo, Laodong, Higuera, Philip E., Hinzman, Larry, Hu, Feng Sheng, Hugelius, Gustaf, Jafarov, Elchin E., Jandt, Randi, Johnstone, Jill F., Karlsson, Jan, Kasischke, Eric S., Kattner, Gerhard, Kelly, Ryan, Keuper, Frida, Kling, George W., Kortelainen, Pirkko, Kouki, Jari, Kuhry, Peter, Laudon, Hjalmar, Laurion, Isabelle, Macdonald, Robie W., Mann, Paul J., Martikainen, Pertti J., McClelland, James W., Molau, Ulf, Oberbauer, Steven F., Olefeldt, David, Pare, David, Parisien, Marc-Andre, Payette, Serge, Peng, Changhui, Pokrovsky, Oleg S., Rastetter, Edward B., Raymond, Peter A., Raynolds, Martha K., Rein, Guillermo, Reynolds, James F., Robards, Martin, Rogers, Brendan M., Schaedel, Christina, Schaefer, Kevin, Schmidt, Inger K., Shvidenko, Anatoly, Sky, Jasper, Spencer, Robert G. M., Starr, Gregory, Striegl, Robert G., Teisserenc, Roman, Tranvik, Lars J., Virtanen, Tarmo, Welker, Jeffrey M., Zimov, Sergei, Abbott, Benjamin W., Jones, Jeremy B., Schuur, Edward A. G., Chapin, F. Stuart, III, Bowden, William B., Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia, Epstein, Howard E., Flannigan, Michael D., Harms, Tamara K., Hollingsworth, Teresa N., Mack, Michelle C., McGuire, A. David, Natali, Susan M., Rocha, Adrian V., Tank, Suzanne E., Turetsky, Merritt R., Vonk, Jorien E., Wickland, Kimberly P., Aiken, George R., Alexander, Heather D., Amon, Rainer M. W., Benscoter, Brian W., Bergeron, Yves, Bishop, Kevin, Blarquez, Olivier, Bond-Lamberty, Ben, Breen, Amy L., Buffam, Ishi, Cai, Yihua, Carcaillet, Christopher, Carey, Sean K., Chen, Jing M., Chen, Han Y. H., Christensen, Torben R., Cooper, Lee W., Cornelissen, J. Hans C., de Groot, William J., DeLuca, Thomas H., Dorrepaal, Ellen, Fetcher, Ned, Finlay, Jacques C., Forbes, Bruce C., French, Nancy H. F., Gauthier, Sylvie, Girardin, Martin P., Goetz, Scott J., Goldammer, Johann G., Gough, Laura, Grogan, Paul, Guo, Laodong, Higuera, Philip E., Hinzman, Larry, Hu, Feng Sheng, Hugelius, Gustaf, Jafarov, Elchin E., Jandt, Randi, Johnstone, Jill F., Karlsson, Jan, Kasischke, Eric S., Kattner, Gerhard, Kelly, Ryan, Keuper, Frida, Kling, George W., Kortelainen, Pirkko, Kouki, Jari, Kuhry, Peter, Laudon, Hjalmar, Laurion, Isabelle, Macdonald, Robie W., Mann, Paul J., Martikainen, Pertti J., McClelland, James W., Molau, Ulf, Oberbauer, Steven F., Olefeldt, David, Pare, David, Parisien, Marc-Andre, Payette, Serge, Peng, Changhui, Pokrovsky, Oleg S., Rastetter, Edward B., Raymond, Peter A., Raynolds, Martha K., Rein, Guillermo, Reynolds, James F., Robards, Martin, Rogers, Brendan M., Schaedel, Christina, Schaefer, Kevin, Schmidt, Inger K., Shvidenko, Anatoly, Sky, Jasper, Spencer, Robert G. M., Starr, Gregory, Striegl, Robert G., Teisserenc, Roman, Tranvik, Lars J., Virtanen, Tarmo, Welker, Jeffrey M., and Zimov, Sergei
Abstract: As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.
Published: 2016
Full Text: View/download PDF

14. Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire : an expert assessment

Author: Abbott, Benjamin W., Jones, Jeremy B., Schuur, Edward A. G., Chapin, F. Stuart, III, Bowden, William B., Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia, Epstein, Howard E., Flannigan, Michael D., Harms, Tamara K., Hollingsworth, Teresa N., Mack, Michelle C., McGuire, A. David, Natali, Susan M., Rocha, Adrian V., Tank, Suzanne E., Turetsky, Merritt R., Vonk, Jorien E., Wickland, Kimberly P., Aiken, George R., Alexander, Heather D., Amon, Rainer M. W., Benscoter, Brian W., Bergeron, Yves, Bishop, Kevin, Blarquez, Olivier, Bond-Lamberty, Ben, Breen, Amy L., Buffam, Ishi, Cai, Yihua, Carcaillet, Christopher, Carey, Sean K., Chen, Jing M., Chen, Han Y. H., Christensen, Torben R., Cooper, Lee W., Cornelissen, J. Hans C., de Groot, William J., DeLuca, Thomas H., Dorrepaal, Ellen, Fetcher, Ned, Finlay, Jacques C., Forbes, Bruce C., French, Nancy H. F., Gauthier, Sylvie, Girardin, Martin P., Goetz, Scott J., Goldammer, Johann G., Gough, Laura, Grogan, Paul, Guo, Laodong, Higuera, Philip E., Hinzman, Larry, Hu, Feng Sheng, Hugelius, Gustaf, Jafarov, Elchin E., Jandt, Randi, Johnstone, Jill F., Karlsson, Jan, Kasischke, Eric S., Kattner, Gerhard, Kelly, Ryan, Keuper, Frida, Kling, George W., Kortelainen, Pirkko, Kouki, Jari, Kuhry, Peter, Laudon, Hjalmar, Laurion, Isabelle, Macdonald, Robie W., Mann, Paul J., Martikainen, Pertti J., McClelland, James W., Molau, Ulf, Oberbauer, Steven F., Olefeldt, David, Pare, David, Parisien, Marc-Andre, Payette, Serge, Peng, Changhui, Pokrovsky, Oleg S., Rastetter, Edward B., Raymond, Peter A., Raynolds, Martha K., Rein, Guillermo, Reynolds, James F., Robards, Martin, Rogers, Brendan M., Schaedel, Christina, Schaefer, Kevin, Schmidt, Inger K., Shvidenko, Anatoly, Sky, Jasper, Spencer, Robert G. M., Starr, Gregory, Striegl, Robert G., Teisserenc, Roman, Tranvik, Lars J., Virtanen, Tarmo, Welker, Jeffrey M., Zimov, Sergei, Abbott, Benjamin W., Jones, Jeremy B., Schuur, Edward A. G., Chapin, F. Stuart, III, Bowden, William B., Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia, Epstein, Howard E., Flannigan, Michael D., Harms, Tamara K., Hollingsworth, Teresa N., Mack, Michelle C., McGuire, A. David, Natali, Susan M., Rocha, Adrian V., Tank, Suzanne E., Turetsky, Merritt R., Vonk, Jorien E., Wickland, Kimberly P., Aiken, George R., Alexander, Heather D., Amon, Rainer M. W., Benscoter, Brian W., Bergeron, Yves, Bishop, Kevin, Blarquez, Olivier, Bond-Lamberty, Ben, Breen, Amy L., Buffam, Ishi, Cai, Yihua, Carcaillet, Christopher, Carey, Sean K., Chen, Jing M., Chen, Han Y. H., Christensen, Torben R., Cooper, Lee W., Cornelissen, J. Hans C., de Groot, William J., DeLuca, Thomas H., Dorrepaal, Ellen, Fetcher, Ned, Finlay, Jacques C., Forbes, Bruce C., French, Nancy H. F., Gauthier, Sylvie, Girardin, Martin P., Goetz, Scott J., Goldammer, Johann G., Gough, Laura, Grogan, Paul, Guo, Laodong, Higuera, Philip E., Hinzman, Larry, Hu, Feng Sheng, Hugelius, Gustaf, Jafarov, Elchin E., Jandt, Randi, Johnstone, Jill F., Karlsson, Jan, Kasischke, Eric S., Kattner, Gerhard, Kelly, Ryan, Keuper, Frida, Kling, George W., Kortelainen, Pirkko, Kouki, Jari, Kuhry, Peter, Laudon, Hjalmar, Laurion, Isabelle, Macdonald, Robie W., Mann, Paul J., Martikainen, Pertti J., McClelland, James W., Molau, Ulf, Oberbauer, Steven F., Olefeldt, David, Pare, David, Parisien, Marc-Andre, Payette, Serge, Peng, Changhui, Pokrovsky, Oleg S., Rastetter, Edward B., Raymond, Peter A., Raynolds, Martha K., Rein, Guillermo, Reynolds, James F., Robards, Martin, Rogers, Brendan M., Schaedel, Christina, Schaefer, Kevin, Schmidt, Inger K., Shvidenko, Anatoly, Sky, Jasper, Spencer, Robert G. M., Starr, Gregory, Striegl, Robert G., Teisserenc, Roman, Tranvik, Lars J., Virtanen, Tarmo, Welker, Jeffrey M., and Zimov, Sergei
Abstract: As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.
Published: 2016
Full Text: View/download PDF

15. Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire : an expert assessment

Author: Abbott, Benjamin W., Jones, Jeremy B., Schuur, Edward A. G., Chapin, F. Stuart, Bowden, William B., Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia, Epstein, Howard E., Flannigan, Michael D., Harms, Tamara K., Hollingsworth, Teresa N., Mack, Michelle C., McGuire, A. David, Natali, Susan M., Rocha, Adrian V., Tank, Suzanne E., Turetsky, Merritt R., Vonk, Jorien E., Wickland, Kimberly P., Aiken, George R., Alexander, Heather D., Amon, Rainer M. W., Benscoter, Brian W., Bergeron, Yves, Bishop, Kevin, Blarquez, Olivier, Bond-Lamberty, Ben, Breen, Amy L., Buffam, Ishi, Cai, Yihua, Carcaillet, Christopher, Carey, Sean K., Chen, Jing M., Chen, Han Y. H., Christensen, Torben R., Cooper, Lee W., Cornelissen, J. Hans C., de Groot, William J., DeLuca, Thomas H., Dorrepaal, Ellen, Fetcher, Ned, Finlay, Jacques C., Forbes, Bruce C., French, Nancy H. F., Gauthier, Sylvie, Girardin, Martin P., Goetz, Scott J., Goldammer, Johann G., Gough, Laura, Grogan, Paul, Guo, Laodong, Higuera, Philip E., Hinzman, Larry, Hu, Feng Sheng, Hugelius, Gustaf, Jafarov, Elchin E., Jandt, Randi, Johnstone, Jill F., Karlsson, Jan, Kasischke, Eric S., Kattner, Gerhard, Kelly, Ryan, Keuper, Frida, Kling, George W., Kortelainen, Pirkko, Kouki, Jari, Kuhry, Peter, Laudon, Hjalmar, Laurion, Isabelle, Macdonald, Robie W., Mann, Paul J., Martikainen, Pertti J., McClelland, James W., Molau, Ulf, Oberbauer, Steven F., Olefeldt, David, Pare, David, Parisien, Marc-Andre, Payette, Serge, Peng, Changhui, Pokrovsky, Oleg S., Rastetter, Edward B., Raymond, Peter A., Raynolds, Martha K., Rein, Guillermo, Reynolds, James F., Robards, Martin, Rogers, Brendan M., Schaedel, Christina, Schaefer, Kevin, Schmidt, Inger K., Shvidenko, Anatoly, Sky, Jasper, Spencer, Robert G. M., Starr, Gregory, Striegl, Robert G., Teisserenc, Roman, Tranvik, Lars J., Virtanen, Tarmo, Welker, Jeffrey M., Zimov, Sergei, Abbott, Benjamin W., Jones, Jeremy B., Schuur, Edward A. G., Chapin, F. Stuart, Bowden, William B., Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia, Epstein, Howard E., Flannigan, Michael D., Harms, Tamara K., Hollingsworth, Teresa N., Mack, Michelle C., McGuire, A. David, Natali, Susan M., Rocha, Adrian V., Tank, Suzanne E., Turetsky, Merritt R., Vonk, Jorien E., Wickland, Kimberly P., Aiken, George R., Alexander, Heather D., Amon, Rainer M. W., Benscoter, Brian W., Bergeron, Yves, Bishop, Kevin, Blarquez, Olivier, Bond-Lamberty, Ben, Breen, Amy L., Buffam, Ishi, Cai, Yihua, Carcaillet, Christopher, Carey, Sean K., Chen, Jing M., Chen, Han Y. H., Christensen, Torben R., Cooper, Lee W., Cornelissen, J. Hans C., de Groot, William J., DeLuca, Thomas H., Dorrepaal, Ellen, Fetcher, Ned, Finlay, Jacques C., Forbes, Bruce C., French, Nancy H. F., Gauthier, Sylvie, Girardin, Martin P., Goetz, Scott J., Goldammer, Johann G., Gough, Laura, Grogan, Paul, Guo, Laodong, Higuera, Philip E., Hinzman, Larry, Hu, Feng Sheng, Hugelius, Gustaf, Jafarov, Elchin E., Jandt, Randi, Johnstone, Jill F., Karlsson, Jan, Kasischke, Eric S., Kattner, Gerhard, Kelly, Ryan, Keuper, Frida, Kling, George W., Kortelainen, Pirkko, Kouki, Jari, Kuhry, Peter, Laudon, Hjalmar, Laurion, Isabelle, Macdonald, Robie W., Mann, Paul J., Martikainen, Pertti J., McClelland, James W., Molau, Ulf, Oberbauer, Steven F., Olefeldt, David, Pare, David, Parisien, Marc-Andre, Payette, Serge, Peng, Changhui, Pokrovsky, Oleg S., Rastetter, Edward B., Raymond, Peter A., Raynolds, Martha K., Rein, Guillermo, Reynolds, James F., Robards, Martin, Rogers, Brendan M., Schaedel, Christina, Schaefer, Kevin, Schmidt, Inger K., Shvidenko, Anatoly, Sky, Jasper, Spencer, Robert G. M., Starr, Gregory, Striegl, Robert G., Teisserenc, Roman, Tranvik, Lars J., Virtanen, Tarmo, Welker, Jeffrey M., and Zimov, Sergei
Abstract: As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.
Published: 2016
Full Text: View/download PDF

16. Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire

Author: University of Helsinki, Department of Environmental Sciences, Abbott, Benjamin W., Jones, Jeremy B., Schuur, Edward A. G., Chapin, F. Stuart, Bowden, William B., Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia, Epstein, Howard E., Flannigan, Michael D., Harms, Tamara K., Hollingsworth, Teresa N., Mack, Michelle C., McGuire, A. David, Natali, Susan M., Rocha, Adrian V., Tank, Suzanne E., Turetsky, Merritt R., Vonk, Jorien E., Wickland, Kimberly P., Aiken, George R., Alexander, Heather D., Amon, Rainer M. W., Benscoter, Brian W., Bergeron, Yves, Bishop, Kevin, Blarquez, Olivier, Bond-Lamberty, Ben, Breen, Amy L., Buffam, Ishi, Cai, Yihua, Carcaillet, Christopher, Carey, Sean K., Chen, Jing M., Chen, Han Y. H., Christensen, Torben R., Cooper, Lee W., Cornelissen, J. Hans C., de Groot, William J., DeLuca, Thomas H., Dorrepaal, Ellen, Fetcher, Ned, Finlay, Jacques C., Forbes, Bruce C., French, Nancy H. F., Gauthier, Sylvie, Girardin, Martin P., Goetz, Scott J., Goldammer, Johann G., Gough, Laura, Grogan, Paul, Guo, Laodong, Higuera, Philip E., Hinzman, Larry, Hu, Feng Sheng, Hugelius, Gustaf, Jafarov, Elchin E., Jandt, Randi, Johnstone, Jill F., Karlsson, Jan, Kasischke, Eric S., Kattner, Gerhard, Kelly, Ryan, Keuper, Frida, Kling, George W., Kortelainen, Pirkko, Kouki, Jari, Kuhry, Peter, Laudon, Hjalmar, Laurion, Isabelle, Macdonald, Robie W., Mann, Paul J., Martikainen, Pertti J., McClelland, James W., Molau, Ulf, Oberbauer, Steven F., Olefeldt, David, Pare, David, Parisien, Marc-Andre, Payette, Serge, Peng, Changhui, Pokrovsky, Oleg S., Rastetter, Edward B., Raymond, Peter A., Raynolds, Martha K., Rein, Guillermo, Reynolds, James F., Robards, Martin, Rogers, Brendan M., Schaedel, Christina, Schaefer, Kevin, Schmidt, Inger K., Shvidenko, Anatoly, Sky, Jasper, Spencer, Robert G. M., Starr, Gregory, Striegl, Robert G., Teisserenc, Roman, Tranvik, Lars J., Virtanen, Tarmo, Welker, Jeffrey M., Zimov, Sergei, University of Helsinki, Department of Environmental Sciences, Abbott, Benjamin W., Jones, Jeremy B., Schuur, Edward A. G., Chapin, F. Stuart, Bowden, William B., Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia, Epstein, Howard E., Flannigan, Michael D., Harms, Tamara K., Hollingsworth, Teresa N., Mack, Michelle C., McGuire, A. David, Natali, Susan M., Rocha, Adrian V., Tank, Suzanne E., Turetsky, Merritt R., Vonk, Jorien E., Wickland, Kimberly P., Aiken, George R., Alexander, Heather D., Amon, Rainer M. W., Benscoter, Brian W., Bergeron, Yves, Bishop, Kevin, Blarquez, Olivier, Bond-Lamberty, Ben, Breen, Amy L., Buffam, Ishi, Cai, Yihua, Carcaillet, Christopher, Carey, Sean K., Chen, Jing M., Chen, Han Y. H., Christensen, Torben R., Cooper, Lee W., Cornelissen, J. Hans C., de Groot, William J., DeLuca, Thomas H., Dorrepaal, Ellen, Fetcher, Ned, Finlay, Jacques C., Forbes, Bruce C., French, Nancy H. F., Gauthier, Sylvie, Girardin, Martin P., Goetz, Scott J., Goldammer, Johann G., Gough, Laura, Grogan, Paul, Guo, Laodong, Higuera, Philip E., Hinzman, Larry, Hu, Feng Sheng, Hugelius, Gustaf, Jafarov, Elchin E., Jandt, Randi, Johnstone, Jill F., Karlsson, Jan, Kasischke, Eric S., Kattner, Gerhard, Kelly, Ryan, Keuper, Frida, Kling, George W., Kortelainen, Pirkko, Kouki, Jari, Kuhry, Peter, Laudon, Hjalmar, Laurion, Isabelle, Macdonald, Robie W., Mann, Paul J., Martikainen, Pertti J., McClelland, James W., Molau, Ulf, Oberbauer, Steven F., Olefeldt, David, Pare, David, Parisien, Marc-Andre, Payette, Serge, Peng, Changhui, Pokrovsky, Oleg S., Rastetter, Edward B., Raymond, Peter A., Raynolds, Martha K., Rein, Guillermo, Reynolds, James F., Robards, Martin, Rogers, Brendan M., Schaedel, Christina, Schaefer, Kevin, Schmidt, Inger K., Shvidenko, Anatoly, Sky, Jasper, Spencer, Robert G. M., Starr, Gregory, Striegl, Robert G., Teisserenc, Roman, Tranvik, Lars J., Virtanen, Tarmo, Welker, Jeffrey M., and Zimov, Sergei
Abstract: As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.
Published: 2016

17. Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire : an expert assessment

Author: Abbott, Benjamin W., Jones, Jeremy B., Schuur, Edward A. G., Chapin, F. Stuart, III, Bowden, William B., Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia, Epstein, Howard E., Flannigan, Michael D., Harms, Tamara K., Hollingsworth, Teresa N., Mack, Michelle C., McGuire, A. David, Natali, Susan M., Rocha, Adrian V., Tank, Suzanne E., Turetsky, Merritt R., Vonk, Jorien E., Wickland, Kimberly P., Aiken, George R., Alexander, Heather D., Amon, Rainer M. W., Benscoter, Brian W., Bergeron, Yves, Bishop, Kevin, Blarquez, Olivier, Bond-Lamberty, Ben, Breen, Amy L., Buffam, Ishi, Cai, Yihua, Carcaillet, Christopher, Carey, Sean K., Chen, Jing M., Chen, Han Y. H., Christensen, Torben R., Cooper, Lee W., Cornelissen, J. Hans C., de Groot, William J., DeLuca, Thomas H., Dorrepaal, Ellen, Fetcher, Ned, Finlay, Jacques C., Forbes, Bruce C., French, Nancy H. F., Gauthier, Sylvie, Girardin, Martin P., Goetz, Scott J., Goldammer, Johann G., Gough, Laura, Grogan, Paul, Guo, Laodong, Higuera, Philip E., Hinzman, Larry, Hu, Feng Sheng, Hugelius, Gustaf, Jafarov, Elchin E., Jandt, Randi, Johnstone, Jill F., Karlsson, Jan, Kasischke, Eric S., Kattner, Gerhard, Kelly, Ryan, Keuper, Frida, Kling, George W., Kortelainen, Pirkko, Kouki, Jari, Kuhry, Peter, Laudon, Hjalmar, Laurion, Isabelle, Macdonald, Robie W., Mann, Paul J., Martikainen, Pertti J., McClelland, James W., Molau, Ulf, Oberbauer, Steven F., Olefeldt, David, Pare, David, Parisien, Marc-Andre, Payette, Serge, Peng, Changhui, Pokrovsky, Oleg S., Rastetter, Edward B., Raymond, Peter A., Raynolds, Martha K., Rein, Guillermo, Reynolds, James F., Robards, Martin, Rogers, Brendan M., Schaedel, Christina, Schaefer, Kevin, Schmidt, Inger K., Shvidenko, Anatoly, Sky, Jasper, Spencer, Robert G. M., Starr, Gregory, Striegl, Robert G., Teisserenc, Roman, Tranvik, Lars J., Virtanen, Tarmo, Welker, Jeffrey M., Zimov, Sergei, Abbott, Benjamin W., Jones, Jeremy B., Schuur, Edward A. G., Chapin, F. Stuart, III, Bowden, William B., Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia, Epstein, Howard E., Flannigan, Michael D., Harms, Tamara K., Hollingsworth, Teresa N., Mack, Michelle C., McGuire, A. David, Natali, Susan M., Rocha, Adrian V., Tank, Suzanne E., Turetsky, Merritt R., Vonk, Jorien E., Wickland, Kimberly P., Aiken, George R., Alexander, Heather D., Amon, Rainer M. W., Benscoter, Brian W., Bergeron, Yves, Bishop, Kevin, Blarquez, Olivier, Bond-Lamberty, Ben, Breen, Amy L., Buffam, Ishi, Cai, Yihua, Carcaillet, Christopher, Carey, Sean K., Chen, Jing M., Chen, Han Y. H., Christensen, Torben R., Cooper, Lee W., Cornelissen, J. Hans C., de Groot, William J., DeLuca, Thomas H., Dorrepaal, Ellen, Fetcher, Ned, Finlay, Jacques C., Forbes, Bruce C., French, Nancy H. F., Gauthier, Sylvie, Girardin, Martin P., Goetz, Scott J., Goldammer, Johann G., Gough, Laura, Grogan, Paul, Guo, Laodong, Higuera, Philip E., Hinzman, Larry, Hu, Feng Sheng, Hugelius, Gustaf, Jafarov, Elchin E., Jandt, Randi, Johnstone, Jill F., Karlsson, Jan, Kasischke, Eric S., Kattner, Gerhard, Kelly, Ryan, Keuper, Frida, Kling, George W., Kortelainen, Pirkko, Kouki, Jari, Kuhry, Peter, Laudon, Hjalmar, Laurion, Isabelle, Macdonald, Robie W., Mann, Paul J., Martikainen, Pertti J., McClelland, James W., Molau, Ulf, Oberbauer, Steven F., Olefeldt, David, Pare, David, Parisien, Marc-Andre, Payette, Serge, Peng, Changhui, Pokrovsky, Oleg S., Rastetter, Edward B., Raymond, Peter A., Raynolds, Martha K., Rein, Guillermo, Reynolds, James F., Robards, Martin, Rogers, Brendan M., Schaedel, Christina, Schaefer, Kevin, Schmidt, Inger K., Shvidenko, Anatoly, Sky, Jasper, Spencer, Robert G. M., Starr, Gregory, Striegl, Robert G., Teisserenc, Roman, Tranvik, Lars J., Virtanen, Tarmo, Welker, Jeffrey M., and Zimov, Sergei
Abstract: As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.
Published: 2016
Full Text: View/download PDF

18. Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire : an expert assessment

Author: Abbott, Benjamin W., Jones, Jeremy B., Schuur, Edward A. G., Chapin, F. Stuart, III, Bowden, William B., Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia, Epstein, Howard E., Flannigan, Michael D., Harms, Tamara K., Hollingsworth, Teresa N., Mack, Michelle C., McGuire, A. David, Natali, Susan M., Rocha, Adrian V., Tank, Suzanne E., Turetsky, Merritt R., Vonk, Jorien E., Wickland, Kimberly P., Aiken, George R., Alexander, Heather D., Amon, Rainer M. W., Benscoter, Brian W., Bergeron, Yves, Bishop, Kevin, Blarquez, Olivier, Bond-Lamberty, Ben, Breen, Amy L., Buffam, Ishi, Cai, Yihua, Carcaillet, Christopher, Carey, Sean K., Chen, Jing M., Chen, Han Y. H., Christensen, Torben R., Cooper, Lee W., Cornelissen, J. Hans C., de Groot, William J., DeLuca, Thomas H., Dorrepaal, Ellen, Fetcher, Ned, Finlay, Jacques C., Forbes, Bruce C., French, Nancy H. F., Gauthier, Sylvie, Girardin, Martin P., Goetz, Scott J., Goldammer, Johann G., Gough, Laura, Grogan, Paul, Guo, Laodong, Higuera, Philip E., Hinzman, Larry, Hu, Feng Sheng, Hugelius, Gustaf, Jafarov, Elchin E., Jandt, Randi, Johnstone, Jill F., Karlsson, Jan, Kasischke, Eric S., Kattner, Gerhard, Kelly, Ryan, Keuper, Frida, Kling, George W., Kortelainen, Pirkko, Kouki, Jari, Kuhry, Peter, Laudon, Hjalmar, Laurion, Isabelle, Macdonald, Robie W., Mann, Paul J., Martikainen, Pertti J., McClelland, James W., Molau, Ulf, Oberbauer, Steven F., Olefeldt, David, Pare, David, Parisien, Marc-Andre, Payette, Serge, Peng, Changhui, Pokrovsky, Oleg S., Rastetter, Edward B., Raymond, Peter A., Raynolds, Martha K., Rein, Guillermo, Reynolds, James F., Robards, Martin, Rogers, Brendan M., Schaedel, Christina, Schaefer, Kevin, Schmidt, Inger K., Shvidenko, Anatoly, Sky, Jasper, Spencer, Robert G. M., Starr, Gregory, Striegl, Robert G., Teisserenc, Roman, Tranvik, Lars J., Virtanen, Tarmo, Welker, Jeffrey M., Zimov, Sergei, Abbott, Benjamin W., Jones, Jeremy B., Schuur, Edward A. G., Chapin, F. Stuart, III, Bowden, William B., Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia, Epstein, Howard E., Flannigan, Michael D., Harms, Tamara K., Hollingsworth, Teresa N., Mack, Michelle C., McGuire, A. David, Natali, Susan M., Rocha, Adrian V., Tank, Suzanne E., Turetsky, Merritt R., Vonk, Jorien E., Wickland, Kimberly P., Aiken, George R., Alexander, Heather D., Amon, Rainer M. W., Benscoter, Brian W., Bergeron, Yves, Bishop, Kevin, Blarquez, Olivier, Bond-Lamberty, Ben, Breen, Amy L., Buffam, Ishi, Cai, Yihua, Carcaillet, Christopher, Carey, Sean K., Chen, Jing M., Chen, Han Y. H., Christensen, Torben R., Cooper, Lee W., Cornelissen, J. Hans C., de Groot, William J., DeLuca, Thomas H., Dorrepaal, Ellen, Fetcher, Ned, Finlay, Jacques C., Forbes, Bruce C., French, Nancy H. F., Gauthier, Sylvie, Girardin, Martin P., Goetz, Scott J., Goldammer, Johann G., Gough, Laura, Grogan, Paul, Guo, Laodong, Higuera, Philip E., Hinzman, Larry, Hu, Feng Sheng, Hugelius, Gustaf, Jafarov, Elchin E., Jandt, Randi, Johnstone, Jill F., Karlsson, Jan, Kasischke, Eric S., Kattner, Gerhard, Kelly, Ryan, Keuper, Frida, Kling, George W., Kortelainen, Pirkko, Kouki, Jari, Kuhry, Peter, Laudon, Hjalmar, Laurion, Isabelle, Macdonald, Robie W., Mann, Paul J., Martikainen, Pertti J., McClelland, James W., Molau, Ulf, Oberbauer, Steven F., Olefeldt, David, Pare, David, Parisien, Marc-Andre, Payette, Serge, Peng, Changhui, Pokrovsky, Oleg S., Rastetter, Edward B., Raymond, Peter A., Raynolds, Martha K., Rein, Guillermo, Reynolds, James F., Robards, Martin, Rogers, Brendan M., Schaedel, Christina, Schaefer, Kevin, Schmidt, Inger K., Shvidenko, Anatoly, Sky, Jasper, Spencer, Robert G. M., Starr, Gregory, Striegl, Robert G., Teisserenc, Roman, Tranvik, Lars J., Virtanen, Tarmo, Welker, Jeffrey M., and Zimov, Sergei
Abstract: As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.
Published: 2016
Full Text: View/download PDF

19. Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire:an expert assessment

Author: Abbott, Benjamin W., Jones, Jeremy B., Schuur, Edward A. G., Chapin, F. Stuart, III, Bowden, William B., Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia, Epstein, Howard E., Flannigan, Michael D., Harms, Tamara K., Hollingsworth, Teresa N., Mack, Michelle C., McGuire, A. David, Natali, Susan M., Rocha, Adrian V., Tank, Suzanne E., Turetsky, Merritt R., Vonk, Jorien E., Wickland, Kimberly P., Aiken, George R., Alexander, Heather D., Amon, Rainer M. W., Benscoter, Brian W., Bergeron, Yves, Bishop, Kevin, Blarquez, Olivier, Bond-Lamberty, Ben, Breen, Amy L., Buffam, Ishi, Cai, Yihua, Carcaillet, Christopher, Carey, Sean K., Chen, Jing M., Chen, Han Y. H., Christensen, Torben R., Cooper, Lee W., Cornelissen, J. Hans C., de Groot, William J., DeLuca, Thomas H., Dorrepaal, Ellen, Fetcher, Ned, Finlay, Jacques C., Forbes, Bruce C., French, Nancy H. F., Gauthier, Sylvie, Girardin, Martin P., Goetz, Scott J., Goldammer, Johann G., Gough, Laura, Grogan, Paul, Guo, Laodong, Higuera, Philip E., Hinzman, Larry, Hu, Feng Sheng, Hugelius, Gustaf, Jafarov, Elchin E., Jandt, Randi, Johnstone, Jill F., Karlsson, Jan, Kasischke, Eric S., Kattner, Gerhard, Kelly, Ryan, Keuper, Frida, Kling, George W., Kortelainen, Pirkko, Kouki, Jari, Kuhry, Peter, Laudon, Hjalmar, Laurion, Isabelle, Macdonald, Robie W., Mann, Paul J., Martikainen, Pertti J., McClelland, James W., Molau, Ulf, Oberbauer, Steven F., Olefeldt, David, Pare, David, Parisien, Marc-Andre, Payette, Serge, Peng, Changhui, Pokrovsky, Oleg S., Rastetter, Edward B., Raymond, Peter A., Raynolds, Martha K., Rein, Guillermo, Reynolds, James F., Robards, Martin, Rogers, Brendan M., Schaedel, Christina, Schaefer, Kevin, Schmidt, Inger Kappel, Shvidenko, Anatoly, Sky, Jasper, Spencer, Robert G. M., Starr, Gregory, Striegl, Robert G., Teisserenc, Roman, Tranvik, Lars J., Virtanen, Tarmo, Welker, Jeffrey M., Zimov, Sergei, Abbott, Benjamin W., Jones, Jeremy B., Schuur, Edward A. G., Chapin, F. Stuart, III, Bowden, William B., Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia, Epstein, Howard E., Flannigan, Michael D., Harms, Tamara K., Hollingsworth, Teresa N., Mack, Michelle C., McGuire, A. David, Natali, Susan M., Rocha, Adrian V., Tank, Suzanne E., Turetsky, Merritt R., Vonk, Jorien E., Wickland, Kimberly P., Aiken, George R., Alexander, Heather D., Amon, Rainer M. W., Benscoter, Brian W., Bergeron, Yves, Bishop, Kevin, Blarquez, Olivier, Bond-Lamberty, Ben, Breen, Amy L., Buffam, Ishi, Cai, Yihua, Carcaillet, Christopher, Carey, Sean K., Chen, Jing M., Chen, Han Y. H., Christensen, Torben R., Cooper, Lee W., Cornelissen, J. Hans C., de Groot, William J., DeLuca, Thomas H., Dorrepaal, Ellen, Fetcher, Ned, Finlay, Jacques C., Forbes, Bruce C., French, Nancy H. F., Gauthier, Sylvie, Girardin, Martin P., Goetz, Scott J., Goldammer, Johann G., Gough, Laura, Grogan, Paul, Guo, Laodong, Higuera, Philip E., Hinzman, Larry, Hu, Feng Sheng, Hugelius, Gustaf, Jafarov, Elchin E., Jandt, Randi, Johnstone, Jill F., Karlsson, Jan, Kasischke, Eric S., Kattner, Gerhard, Kelly, Ryan, Keuper, Frida, Kling, George W., Kortelainen, Pirkko, Kouki, Jari, Kuhry, Peter, Laudon, Hjalmar, Laurion, Isabelle, Macdonald, Robie W., Mann, Paul J., Martikainen, Pertti J., McClelland, James W., Molau, Ulf, Oberbauer, Steven F., Olefeldt, David, Pare, David, Parisien, Marc-Andre, Payette, Serge, Peng, Changhui, Pokrovsky, Oleg S., Rastetter, Edward B., Raymond, Peter A., Raynolds, Martha K., Rein, Guillermo, Reynolds, James F., Robards, Martin, Rogers, Brendan M., Schaedel, Christina, Schaefer, Kevin, Schmidt, Inger Kappel, Shvidenko, Anatoly, Sky, Jasper, Spencer, Robert G. M., Starr, Gregory, Striegl, Robert G., Teisserenc, Roman, Tranvik, Lars J., Virtanen, Tarmo, Welker, Jeffrey M., and Zimov, Sergei
Abstract: As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%?85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.
Published: 2016

20. Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire : an expert assessment

Author: Abbott, Benjamin W., Jones, Jeremy B., Schuur, Edward A. G., Chapin, F. Stuart, III, Bowden, William B., Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia, Epstein, Howard E., Flannigan, Michael D., Harms, Tamara K., Hollingsworth, Teresa N., Mack, Michelle C., McGuire, A. David, Natali, Susan M., Rocha, Adrian V., Tank, Suzanne E., Turetsky, Merritt R., Vonk, Jorien E., Wickland, Kimberly P., Aiken, George R., Alexander, Heather D., Amon, Rainer M. W., Benscoter, Brian W., Bergeron, Yves, Bishop, Kevin, Blarquez, Olivier, Bond-Lamberty, Ben, Breen, Amy L., Buffam, Ishi, Cai, Yihua, Carcaillet, Christopher, Carey, Sean K., Chen, Jing M., Chen, Han Y. H., Christensen, Torben R., Cooper, Lee W., Cornelissen, J. Hans C., de Groot, William J., DeLuca, Thomas H., Dorrepaal, Ellen, Fetcher, Ned, Finlay, Jacques C., Forbes, Bruce C., French, Nancy H. F., Gauthier, Sylvie, Girardin, Martin P., Goetz, Scott J., Goldammer, Johann G., Gough, Laura, Grogan, Paul, Guo, Laodong, Higuera, Philip E., Hinzman, Larry, Hu, Feng Sheng, Hugelius, Gustaf, Jafarov, Elchin E., Jandt, Randi, Johnstone, Jill F., Karlsson, Jan, Kasischke, Eric S., Kattner, Gerhard, Kelly, Ryan, Keuper, Frida, Kling, George W., Kortelainen, Pirkko, Kouki, Jari, Kuhry, Peter, Laudon, Hjalmar, Laurion, Isabelle, Macdonald, Robie W., Mann, Paul J., Martikainen, Pertti J., McClelland, James W., Molau, Ulf, Oberbauer, Steven F., Olefeldt, David, Pare, David, Parisien, Marc-Andre, Payette, Serge, Peng, Changhui, Pokrovsky, Oleg S., Rastetter, Edward B., Raymond, Peter A., Raynolds, Martha K., Rein, Guillermo, Reynolds, James F., Robards, Martin, Rogers, Brendan M., Schaedel, Christina, Schaefer, Kevin, Schmidt, Inger K., Shvidenko, Anatoly, Sky, Jasper, Spencer, Robert G. M., Starr, Gregory, Striegl, Robert G., Teisserenc, Roman, Tranvik, Lars J., Virtanen, Tarmo, Welker, Jeffrey M., Zimov, Sergei, Abbott, Benjamin W., Jones, Jeremy B., Schuur, Edward A. G., Chapin, F. Stuart, III, Bowden, William B., Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia, Epstein, Howard E., Flannigan, Michael D., Harms, Tamara K., Hollingsworth, Teresa N., Mack, Michelle C., McGuire, A. David, Natali, Susan M., Rocha, Adrian V., Tank, Suzanne E., Turetsky, Merritt R., Vonk, Jorien E., Wickland, Kimberly P., Aiken, George R., Alexander, Heather D., Amon, Rainer M. W., Benscoter, Brian W., Bergeron, Yves, Bishop, Kevin, Blarquez, Olivier, Bond-Lamberty, Ben, Breen, Amy L., Buffam, Ishi, Cai, Yihua, Carcaillet, Christopher, Carey, Sean K., Chen, Jing M., Chen, Han Y. H., Christensen, Torben R., Cooper, Lee W., Cornelissen, J. Hans C., de Groot, William J., DeLuca, Thomas H., Dorrepaal, Ellen, Fetcher, Ned, Finlay, Jacques C., Forbes, Bruce C., French, Nancy H. F., Gauthier, Sylvie, Girardin, Martin P., Goetz, Scott J., Goldammer, Johann G., Gough, Laura, Grogan, Paul, Guo, Laodong, Higuera, Philip E., Hinzman, Larry, Hu, Feng Sheng, Hugelius, Gustaf, Jafarov, Elchin E., Jandt, Randi, Johnstone, Jill F., Karlsson, Jan, Kasischke, Eric S., Kattner, Gerhard, Kelly, Ryan, Keuper, Frida, Kling, George W., Kortelainen, Pirkko, Kouki, Jari, Kuhry, Peter, Laudon, Hjalmar, Laurion, Isabelle, Macdonald, Robie W., Mann, Paul J., Martikainen, Pertti J., McClelland, James W., Molau, Ulf, Oberbauer, Steven F., Olefeldt, David, Pare, David, Parisien, Marc-Andre, Payette, Serge, Peng, Changhui, Pokrovsky, Oleg S., Rastetter, Edward B., Raymond, Peter A., Raynolds, Martha K., Rein, Guillermo, Reynolds, James F., Robards, Martin, Rogers, Brendan M., Schaedel, Christina, Schaefer, Kevin, Schmidt, Inger K., Shvidenko, Anatoly, Sky, Jasper, Spencer, Robert G. M., Starr, Gregory, Striegl, Robert G., Teisserenc, Roman, Tranvik, Lars J., Virtanen, Tarmo, Welker, Jeffrey M., and Zimov, Sergei
Abstract: As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.
Published: 2016
Full Text: View/download PDF

21. Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire : an expert assessment

Author: Abbott, Benjamin W., Jones, Jeremy B., Schuur, Edward A. G., Chapin, F. Stuart, III, Bowden, William B., Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia, Epstein, Howard E., Flannigan, Michael D., Harms, Tamara K., Hollingsworth, Teresa N., Mack, Michelle C., McGuire, A. David, Natali, Susan M., Rocha, Adrian V., Tank, Suzanne E., Turetsky, Merritt R., Vonk, Jorien E., Wickland, Kimberly P., Aiken, George R., Alexander, Heather D., Amon, Rainer M. W., Benscoter, Brian W., Bergeron, Yves, Bishop, Kevin, Blarquez, Olivier, Bond-Lamberty, Ben, Breen, Amy L., Buffam, Ishi, Cai, Yihua, Carcaillet, Christopher, Carey, Sean K., Chen, Jing M., Chen, Han Y. H., Christensen, Torben R., Cooper, Lee W., Cornelissen, J. Hans C., de Groot, William J., DeLuca, Thomas H., Dorrepaal, Ellen, Fetcher, Ned, Finlay, Jacques C., Forbes, Bruce C., French, Nancy H. F., Gauthier, Sylvie, Girardin, Martin P., Goetz, Scott J., Goldammer, Johann G., Gough, Laura, Grogan, Paul, Guo, Laodong, Higuera, Philip E., Hinzman, Larry, Hu, Feng Sheng, Hugelius, Gustaf, Jafarov, Elchin E., Jandt, Randi, Johnstone, Jill F., Karlsson, Jan, Kasischke, Eric S., Kattner, Gerhard, Kelly, Ryan, Keuper, Frida, Kling, George W., Kortelainen, Pirkko, Kouki, Jari, Kuhry, Peter, Laudon, Hjalmar, Laurion, Isabelle, Macdonald, Robie W., Mann, Paul J., Martikainen, Pertti J., McClelland, James W., Molau, Ulf, Oberbauer, Steven F., Olefeldt, David, Pare, David, Parisien, Marc-Andre, Payette, Serge, Peng, Changhui, Pokrovsky, Oleg S., Rastetter, Edward B., Raymond, Peter A., Raynolds, Martha K., Rein, Guillermo, Reynolds, James F., Robards, Martin, Rogers, Brendan M., Schaedel, Christina, Schaefer, Kevin, Schmidt, Inger K., Shvidenko, Anatoly, Sky, Jasper, Spencer, Robert G. M., Starr, Gregory, Striegl, Robert G., Teisserenc, Roman, Tranvik, Lars J., Virtanen, Tarmo, Welker, Jeffrey M., Zimov, Sergei, Abbott, Benjamin W., Jones, Jeremy B., Schuur, Edward A. G., Chapin, F. Stuart, III, Bowden, William B., Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia, Epstein, Howard E., Flannigan, Michael D., Harms, Tamara K., Hollingsworth, Teresa N., Mack, Michelle C., McGuire, A. David, Natali, Susan M., Rocha, Adrian V., Tank, Suzanne E., Turetsky, Merritt R., Vonk, Jorien E., Wickland, Kimberly P., Aiken, George R., Alexander, Heather D., Amon, Rainer M. W., Benscoter, Brian W., Bergeron, Yves, Bishop, Kevin, Blarquez, Olivier, Bond-Lamberty, Ben, Breen, Amy L., Buffam, Ishi, Cai, Yihua, Carcaillet, Christopher, Carey, Sean K., Chen, Jing M., Chen, Han Y. H., Christensen, Torben R., Cooper, Lee W., Cornelissen, J. Hans C., de Groot, William J., DeLuca, Thomas H., Dorrepaal, Ellen, Fetcher, Ned, Finlay, Jacques C., Forbes, Bruce C., French, Nancy H. F., Gauthier, Sylvie, Girardin, Martin P., Goetz, Scott J., Goldammer, Johann G., Gough, Laura, Grogan, Paul, Guo, Laodong, Higuera, Philip E., Hinzman, Larry, Hu, Feng Sheng, Hugelius, Gustaf, Jafarov, Elchin E., Jandt, Randi, Johnstone, Jill F., Karlsson, Jan, Kasischke, Eric S., Kattner, Gerhard, Kelly, Ryan, Keuper, Frida, Kling, George W., Kortelainen, Pirkko, Kouki, Jari, Kuhry, Peter, Laudon, Hjalmar, Laurion, Isabelle, Macdonald, Robie W., Mann, Paul J., Martikainen, Pertti J., McClelland, James W., Molau, Ulf, Oberbauer, Steven F., Olefeldt, David, Pare, David, Parisien, Marc-Andre, Payette, Serge, Peng, Changhui, Pokrovsky, Oleg S., Rastetter, Edward B., Raymond, Peter A., Raynolds, Martha K., Rein, Guillermo, Reynolds, James F., Robards, Martin, Rogers, Brendan M., Schaedel, Christina, Schaefer, Kevin, Schmidt, Inger K., Shvidenko, Anatoly, Sky, Jasper, Spencer, Robert G. M., Starr, Gregory, Striegl, Robert G., Teisserenc, Roman, Tranvik, Lars J., Virtanen, Tarmo, Welker, Jeffrey M., and Zimov, Sergei
Abstract: As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.
Published: 2016
Full Text: View/download PDF

22. Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment

Author: Abbott, Benjamin W, Jones, Jeremy B, Schuur, Edward A G, Chapin III, F Stuart, Bowden, William B, Bret-Harte, M Syndonia, Epstein, Howard E, Flannigan, Michael D, Harms, Tamara K, Hollingsworth, Teresa N, Mack, Michelle C, McGuire, A David, Natali, Susan M, Rocha, Adrian V, Tank, Suzanne E, Turetsky, Merritt R, Vonk, Jorien E, Wickland, Kimberly P, Aiken, George R, Alexander, Heather D, Amon, Rainer M W, Benscoter, Brian W, Bergeron, Yves, Bishop, Kevin, Blarquez, Olivier, Bond-Lamberty, Ben, Breen, Amy L, Buffam, Ishi, Cai, Yihua, Carcaillet, Christopher, Carey, Sean K, Chen, Jing M, Chen, Han Y H, Christensen, Torben R, Cooper, Lee W, Cornelissen, J Hans C, de Groot, William J, DeLuca, Thomas H, Dorrepaal, Ellen, Fetcher, Ned, Finlay, Jacques C, Forbes, Bruce C, French, Nancy H F, Gauthier, Sylvie, Girardin, Martin P, Goetz, Scott J, Goldammer, Johann G, Gough, Laura, Grogan, Paul, Guo, Laodong, Higuera, Philip E, Hinzman, Larry, Hu, Feng Sheng, Hugelius, Gustaf, Jafarov, Elchin E, Jandt, Randi, Johnstone, Jill F, Karlsson, Jan, Kasischke, Eric S, Kattner, Gerhard, Kelly, Ryan, Keuper, Frida, Kling, George W, Kortelainen, Pirkko, Kouki, Jari, Kuhry, Peter, Laudon, Hjalmar, Laurion, Isabelle, Macdonald, Robie W, Mann, Paul J, Martikainen, Pertti J, McClelland, James W, Molau, Ulf, Oberbauer, Steven F, Olefeldt, David, Paré, David, Parisien, Marc-André, Payette, Serge, Peng, Changhui, Pokrovsky, Oleg S, Rastetter, Edward B, Raymond, Peter A, Raynolds, Martha K, Rein, Guillermo, Reynolds, James F, Robards, Martin, Rogers, Brendan M, Schädel, Christina, Schaefer, Kevin, Schmidt, Inger K, Shvidenko, Anatoly, Sky, Jasper, Spencer, Robert G M, Starr, Gregory, Striegl, Robert G, Teisserenc, Roman, Tranvik, Lars J, Virtanen, Tarmo, Welker, Jeffrey M, Zimov, Sergei, Abbott, Benjamin W, Jones, Jeremy B, Schuur, Edward A G, Chapin III, F Stuart, Bowden, William B, Bret-Harte, M Syndonia, Epstein, Howard E, Flannigan, Michael D, Harms, Tamara K, Hollingsworth, Teresa N, Mack, Michelle C, McGuire, A David, Natali, Susan M, Rocha, Adrian V, Tank, Suzanne E, Turetsky, Merritt R, Vonk, Jorien E, Wickland, Kimberly P, Aiken, George R, Alexander, Heather D, Amon, Rainer M W, Benscoter, Brian W, Bergeron, Yves, Bishop, Kevin, Blarquez, Olivier, Bond-Lamberty, Ben, Breen, Amy L, Buffam, Ishi, Cai, Yihua, Carcaillet, Christopher, Carey, Sean K, Chen, Jing M, Chen, Han Y H, Christensen, Torben R, Cooper, Lee W, Cornelissen, J Hans C, de Groot, William J, DeLuca, Thomas H, Dorrepaal, Ellen, Fetcher, Ned, Finlay, Jacques C, Forbes, Bruce C, French, Nancy H F, Gauthier, Sylvie, Girardin, Martin P, Goetz, Scott J, Goldammer, Johann G, Gough, Laura, Grogan, Paul, Guo, Laodong, Higuera, Philip E, Hinzman, Larry, Hu, Feng Sheng, Hugelius, Gustaf, Jafarov, Elchin E, Jandt, Randi, Johnstone, Jill F, Karlsson, Jan, Kasischke, Eric S, Kattner, Gerhard, Kelly, Ryan, Keuper, Frida, Kling, George W, Kortelainen, Pirkko, Kouki, Jari, Kuhry, Peter, Laudon, Hjalmar, Laurion, Isabelle, Macdonald, Robie W, Mann, Paul J, Martikainen, Pertti J, McClelland, James W, Molau, Ulf, Oberbauer, Steven F, Olefeldt, David, Paré, David, Parisien, Marc-André, Payette, Serge, Peng, Changhui, Pokrovsky, Oleg S, Rastetter, Edward B, Raymond, Peter A, Raynolds, Martha K, Rein, Guillermo, Reynolds, James F, Robards, Martin, Rogers, Brendan M, Schädel, Christina, Schaefer, Kevin, Schmidt, Inger K, Shvidenko, Anatoly, Sky, Jasper, Spencer, Robert G M, Starr, Gregory, Striegl, Robert G, Teisserenc, Roman, Tranvik, Lars J, Virtanen, Tarmo, Welker, Jeffrey M, and Zimov, Sergei
Abstract: As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.
Published: 2016
Full Text: View/download PDF

23. Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire:an expert assessment

Author: Abbott, Benjamin W., Jones, Jeremy B., Schuur, Edward A. G., Chapin, F. Stuart, III, Bowden, William B., Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia, Epstein, Howard E., Flannigan, Michael D., Harms, Tamara K., Hollingsworth, Teresa N., Mack, Michelle C., McGuire, A. David, Natali, Susan M., Rocha, Adrian V., Tank, Suzanne E., Turetsky, Merritt R., Vonk, Jorien E., Wickland, Kimberly P., Aiken, George R., Alexander, Heather D., Amon, Rainer M. W., Benscoter, Brian W., Bergeron, Yves, Bishop, Kevin, Blarquez, Olivier, Bond-Lamberty, Ben, Breen, Amy L., Buffam, Ishi, Cai, Yihua, Carcaillet, Christopher, Carey, Sean K., Chen, Jing M., Chen, Han Y. H., Christensen, Torben R., Cooper, Lee W., Cornelissen, J. Hans C., de Groot, William J., DeLuca, Thomas H., Dorrepaal, Ellen, Fetcher, Ned, Finlay, Jacques C., Forbes, Bruce C., French, Nancy H. F., Gauthier, Sylvie, Girardin, Martin P., Goetz, Scott J., Goldammer, Johann G., Gough, Laura, Grogan, Paul, Guo, Laodong, Higuera, Philip E., Hinzman, Larry, Hu, Feng Sheng, Hugelius, Gustaf, Jafarov, Elchin E., Jandt, Randi, Johnstone, Jill F., Karlsson, Jan, Kasischke, Eric S., Kattner, Gerhard, Kelly, Ryan, Keuper, Frida, Kling, George W., Kortelainen, Pirkko, Kouki, Jari, Kuhry, Peter, Laudon, Hjalmar, Laurion, Isabelle, Macdonald, Robie W., Mann, Paul J., Martikainen, Pertti J., McClelland, James W., Molau, Ulf, Oberbauer, Steven F., Olefeldt, David, Pare, David, Parisien, Marc-Andre, Payette, Serge, Peng, Changhui, Pokrovsky, Oleg S., Rastetter, Edward B., Raymond, Peter A., Raynolds, Martha K., Rein, Guillermo, Reynolds, James F., Robards, Martin, Rogers, Brendan M., Schaedel, Christina, Schaefer, Kevin, Schmidt, Inger Kappel, Shvidenko, Anatoly, Sky, Jasper, Spencer, Robert G. M., Starr, Gregory, Striegl, Robert G., Teisserenc, Roman, Tranvik, Lars J., Virtanen, Tarmo, Welker, Jeffrey M., Zimov, Sergei, Abbott, Benjamin W., Jones, Jeremy B., Schuur, Edward A. G., Chapin, F. Stuart, III, Bowden, William B., Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia, Epstein, Howard E., Flannigan, Michael D., Harms, Tamara K., Hollingsworth, Teresa N., Mack, Michelle C., McGuire, A. David, Natali, Susan M., Rocha, Adrian V., Tank, Suzanne E., Turetsky, Merritt R., Vonk, Jorien E., Wickland, Kimberly P., Aiken, George R., Alexander, Heather D., Amon, Rainer M. W., Benscoter, Brian W., Bergeron, Yves, Bishop, Kevin, Blarquez, Olivier, Bond-Lamberty, Ben, Breen, Amy L., Buffam, Ishi, Cai, Yihua, Carcaillet, Christopher, Carey, Sean K., Chen, Jing M., Chen, Han Y. H., Christensen, Torben R., Cooper, Lee W., Cornelissen, J. Hans C., de Groot, William J., DeLuca, Thomas H., Dorrepaal, Ellen, Fetcher, Ned, Finlay, Jacques C., Forbes, Bruce C., French, Nancy H. F., Gauthier, Sylvie, Girardin, Martin P., Goetz, Scott J., Goldammer, Johann G., Gough, Laura, Grogan, Paul, Guo, Laodong, Higuera, Philip E., Hinzman, Larry, Hu, Feng Sheng, Hugelius, Gustaf, Jafarov, Elchin E., Jandt, Randi, Johnstone, Jill F., Karlsson, Jan, Kasischke, Eric S., Kattner, Gerhard, Kelly, Ryan, Keuper, Frida, Kling, George W., Kortelainen, Pirkko, Kouki, Jari, Kuhry, Peter, Laudon, Hjalmar, Laurion, Isabelle, Macdonald, Robie W., Mann, Paul J., Martikainen, Pertti J., McClelland, James W., Molau, Ulf, Oberbauer, Steven F., Olefeldt, David, Pare, David, Parisien, Marc-Andre, Payette, Serge, Peng, Changhui, Pokrovsky, Oleg S., Rastetter, Edward B., Raymond, Peter A., Raynolds, Martha K., Rein, Guillermo, Reynolds, James F., Robards, Martin, Rogers, Brendan M., Schaedel, Christina, Schaefer, Kevin, Schmidt, Inger Kappel, Shvidenko, Anatoly, Sky, Jasper, Spencer, Robert G. M., Starr, Gregory, Striegl, Robert G., Teisserenc, Roman, Tranvik, Lars J., Virtanen, Tarmo, Welker, Jeffrey M., and Zimov, Sergei
Abstract: As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%?85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.
Published: 2016

24. Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire : an expert assessment

Author: Abbott, Benjamin W., Jones, Jeremy B., Schuur, Edward A. G., Chapin, F. Stuart, III, Bowden, William B., Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia, Epstein, Howard E., Flannigan, Michael D., Harms, Tamara K., Hollingsworth, Teresa N., Mack, Michelle C., McGuire, A. David, Natali, Susan M., Rocha, Adrian V., Tank, Suzanne E., Turetsky, Merritt R., Vonk, Jorien E., Wickland, Kimberly P., Aiken, George R., Alexander, Heather D., Amon, Rainer M. W., Benscoter, Brian W., Bergeron, Yves, Bishop, Kevin, Blarquez, Olivier, Bond-Lamberty, Ben, Breen, Amy L., Buffam, Ishi, Cai, Yihua, Carcaillet, Christopher, Carey, Sean K., Chen, Jing M., Chen, Han Y. H., Christensen, Torben R., Cooper, Lee W., Cornelissen, J. Hans C., de Groot, William J., DeLuca, Thomas H., Dorrepaal, Ellen, Fetcher, Ned, Finlay, Jacques C., Forbes, Bruce C., French, Nancy H. F., Gauthier, Sylvie, Girardin, Martin P., Goetz, Scott J., Goldammer, Johann G., Gough, Laura, Grogan, Paul, Guo, Laodong, Higuera, Philip E., Hinzman, Larry, Hu, Feng Sheng, Hugelius, Gustaf, Jafarov, Elchin E., Jandt, Randi, Johnstone, Jill F., Karlsson, Jan, Kasischke, Eric S., Kattner, Gerhard, Kelly, Ryan, Keuper, Frida, Kling, George W., Kortelainen, Pirkko, Kouki, Jari, Kuhry, Peter, Laudon, Hjalmar, Laurion, Isabelle, Macdonald, Robie W., Mann, Paul J., Martikainen, Pertti J., McClelland, James W., Molau, Ulf, Oberbauer, Steven F., Olefeldt, David, Pare, David, Parisien, Marc-Andre, Payette, Serge, Peng, Changhui, Pokrovsky, Oleg S., Rastetter, Edward B., Raymond, Peter A., Raynolds, Martha K., Rein, Guillermo, Reynolds, James F., Robards, Martin, Rogers, Brendan M., Schaedel, Christina, Schaefer, Kevin, Schmidt, Inger K., Shvidenko, Anatoly, Sky, Jasper, Spencer, Robert G. M., Starr, Gregory, Striegl, Robert G., Teisserenc, Roman, Tranvik, Lars J., Virtanen, Tarmo, Welker, Jeffrey M., Zimov, Sergei, Abbott, Benjamin W., Jones, Jeremy B., Schuur, Edward A. G., Chapin, F. Stuart, III, Bowden, William B., Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia, Epstein, Howard E., Flannigan, Michael D., Harms, Tamara K., Hollingsworth, Teresa N., Mack, Michelle C., McGuire, A. David, Natali, Susan M., Rocha, Adrian V., Tank, Suzanne E., Turetsky, Merritt R., Vonk, Jorien E., Wickland, Kimberly P., Aiken, George R., Alexander, Heather D., Amon, Rainer M. W., Benscoter, Brian W., Bergeron, Yves, Bishop, Kevin, Blarquez, Olivier, Bond-Lamberty, Ben, Breen, Amy L., Buffam, Ishi, Cai, Yihua, Carcaillet, Christopher, Carey, Sean K., Chen, Jing M., Chen, Han Y. H., Christensen, Torben R., Cooper, Lee W., Cornelissen, J. Hans C., de Groot, William J., DeLuca, Thomas H., Dorrepaal, Ellen, Fetcher, Ned, Finlay, Jacques C., Forbes, Bruce C., French, Nancy H. F., Gauthier, Sylvie, Girardin, Martin P., Goetz, Scott J., Goldammer, Johann G., Gough, Laura, Grogan, Paul, Guo, Laodong, Higuera, Philip E., Hinzman, Larry, Hu, Feng Sheng, Hugelius, Gustaf, Jafarov, Elchin E., Jandt, Randi, Johnstone, Jill F., Karlsson, Jan, Kasischke, Eric S., Kattner, Gerhard, Kelly, Ryan, Keuper, Frida, Kling, George W., Kortelainen, Pirkko, Kouki, Jari, Kuhry, Peter, Laudon, Hjalmar, Laurion, Isabelle, Macdonald, Robie W., Mann, Paul J., Martikainen, Pertti J., McClelland, James W., Molau, Ulf, Oberbauer, Steven F., Olefeldt, David, Pare, David, Parisien, Marc-Andre, Payette, Serge, Peng, Changhui, Pokrovsky, Oleg S., Rastetter, Edward B., Raymond, Peter A., Raynolds, Martha K., Rein, Guillermo, Reynolds, James F., Robards, Martin, Rogers, Brendan M., Schaedel, Christina, Schaefer, Kevin, Schmidt, Inger K., Shvidenko, Anatoly, Sky, Jasper, Spencer, Robert G. M., Starr, Gregory, Striegl, Robert G., Teisserenc, Roman, Tranvik, Lars J., Virtanen, Tarmo, Welker, Jeffrey M., and Zimov, Sergei
Abstract: As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.
Published: 2016
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25. An estimate of the terrestrial carbon budget of Russia using inventory based, eddy covariance and inversion methods

Author: Dolman, A.J., Shvidenko, A., Schepaschenko, D., Ciais, P., Tchebakova, N., Chen, T., van der Molen, M.K., Belelli Marchesini, L., Maximov, T.C., Maksyutov, S., Schulze, E.D., Dolman, A.J., Shvidenko, A., Schepaschenko, D., Ciais, P., Tchebakova, N., Chen, T., van der Molen, M.K., Belelli Marchesini, L., Maximov, T.C., Maksyutov, S., and Schulze, E.D.
Abstract: We determine the net land to atmosphere flux of carbon in Russia, including Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan, using inventory-based, eddy covariance, and inversion methods. Our high boundary estimate is -342 Tg C yr-1 from the eddy covariance method, and this is close to the upper bounds of the inventory-based Land Ecosystem Assessment and inverse models estimates. A lower boundary estimate is provided at -1350 Tg C yr-1 from the inversion models. The average of the three methods is -613.5 Tg C yr-1. The methane emission is estimated separately at 41.4 Tg C yr-1. These three methods agree well within their respective error bounds. There is thus good consistency between bottom-up and top-down methods. The forests of Russia primarily cause the net atmosphere to land flux (-692 Tg C yr-1 from the LEA. It remains however remarkable that the three methods provide such close estimates (-615, -662, -554 Tg C yr–1) for net biome production (NBP), given the inherent uncertainties in all of the approaches. The lack of recent forest inventories, the few eddy covariance sites and associated uncertainty with upscaling and undersampling of concentrations for the inversions are among the prime causes of the uncertainty. The dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) suggest a much lower uptake at -91 Tg C yr-1, and we argue that this is caused by a high estimate of heterotrophic respiration compared to other methods.
Published: 2012

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25 results on '"PERMAFROST CARBON"'

1. Pan-Arctic soil element bioavailability estimations

2. Pan-Arctic soil element bioavailability estimations

3. Permafrost and Climate Change : Carbon Cycle Feedbacks From the Warming Arctic

4. Mobilization of subsurface carbon pools driven by permafrost thaw and reactivation of groundwater flow : a virtual experiment

5. Thermokarst Lagoons:A Core-Based Assessment of Depositional Characteristics and an Estimate of Carbon Pools on the Bykovsky Peninsula

6. Methane Production Pathway Regulated Proximally by Substrate Availability and Distally by Temperature in a High-Latitude Mire Complex

7. Methane Production Pathway Regulated Proximally by Substrate Availability and Distally by Temperature in a High-Latitude Mire Complex

8. Methane Production Pathway Regulated Proximally by Substrate Availability and Distally by Temperature in a High-Latitude Mire Complex

9. Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire : an expert assessment

10. Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire : an expert assessment

11. Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire : an expert assessment

12. Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire : an expert assessment

13. Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire : an expert assessment

14. Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire : an expert assessment

15. Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire : an expert assessment

16. Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire

17. Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire : an expert assessment

18. Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire : an expert assessment

19. Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire:an expert assessment

20. Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire : an expert assessment

21. Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire : an expert assessment

22. Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment

23. Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire:an expert assessment

24. Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire : an expert assessment

25. An estimate of the terrestrial carbon budget of Russia using inventory based, eddy covariance and inversion methods

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