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Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire : an expert assessment

Authors :
Abbott, Benjamin W.
Jones, Jeremy B.
Schuur, Edward A. G.
Chapin, F. Stuart, III
Bowden, William B.
Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia
Epstein, Howard E.
Flannigan, Michael D.
Harms, Tamara K.
Hollingsworth, Teresa N.
Mack, Michelle C.
McGuire, A. David
Natali, Susan M.
Rocha, Adrian V.
Tank, Suzanne E.
Turetsky, Merritt R.
Vonk, Jorien E.
Wickland, Kimberly P.
Aiken, George R.
Alexander, Heather D.
Amon, Rainer M. W.
Benscoter, Brian W.
Bergeron, Yves
Bishop, Kevin
Blarquez, Olivier
Bond-Lamberty, Ben
Breen, Amy L.
Buffam, Ishi
Cai, Yihua
Carcaillet, Christopher
Carey, Sean K.
Chen, Jing M.
Chen, Han Y. H.
Christensen, Torben R.
Cooper, Lee W.
Cornelissen, J. Hans C.
de Groot, William J.
DeLuca, Thomas H.
Dorrepaal, Ellen
Fetcher, Ned
Finlay, Jacques C.
Forbes, Bruce C.
French, Nancy H. F.
Gauthier, Sylvie
Girardin, Martin P.
Goetz, Scott J.
Goldammer, Johann G.
Gough, Laura
Grogan, Paul
Guo, Laodong
Higuera, Philip E.
Hinzman, Larry
Hu, Feng Sheng
Hugelius, Gustaf
Jafarov, Elchin E.
Jandt, Randi
Johnstone, Jill F.
Karlsson, Jan
Kasischke, Eric S.
Kattner, Gerhard
Kelly, Ryan
Keuper, Frida
Kling, George W.
Kortelainen, Pirkko
Kouki, Jari
Kuhry, Peter
Laudon, Hjalmar
Laurion, Isabelle
Macdonald, Robie W.
Mann, Paul J.
Martikainen, Pertti J.
McClelland, James W.
Molau, Ulf
Oberbauer, Steven F.
Olefeldt, David
Pare, David
Parisien, Marc-Andre
Payette, Serge
Peng, Changhui
Pokrovsky, Oleg S.
Rastetter, Edward B.
Raymond, Peter A.
Raynolds, Martha K.
Rein, Guillermo
Reynolds, James F.
Robards, Martin
Rogers, Brendan M.
Schaedel, Christina
Schaefer, Kevin
Schmidt, Inger K.
Shvidenko, Anatoly
Sky, Jasper
Spencer, Robert G. M.
Starr, Gregory
Striegl, Robert G.
Teisserenc, Roman
Tranvik, Lars J.
Virtanen, Tarmo
Welker, Jeffrey M.
Zimov, Sergei
Abbott, Benjamin W.
Jones, Jeremy B.
Schuur, Edward A. G.
Chapin, F. Stuart, III
Bowden, William B.
Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia
Epstein, Howard E.
Flannigan, Michael D.
Harms, Tamara K.
Hollingsworth, Teresa N.
Mack, Michelle C.
McGuire, A. David
Natali, Susan M.
Rocha, Adrian V.
Tank, Suzanne E.
Turetsky, Merritt R.
Vonk, Jorien E.
Wickland, Kimberly P.
Aiken, George R.
Alexander, Heather D.
Amon, Rainer M. W.
Benscoter, Brian W.
Bergeron, Yves
Bishop, Kevin
Blarquez, Olivier
Bond-Lamberty, Ben
Breen, Amy L.
Buffam, Ishi
Cai, Yihua
Carcaillet, Christopher
Carey, Sean K.
Chen, Jing M.
Chen, Han Y. H.
Christensen, Torben R.
Cooper, Lee W.
Cornelissen, J. Hans C.
de Groot, William J.
DeLuca, Thomas H.
Dorrepaal, Ellen
Fetcher, Ned
Finlay, Jacques C.
Forbes, Bruce C.
French, Nancy H. F.
Gauthier, Sylvie
Girardin, Martin P.
Goetz, Scott J.
Goldammer, Johann G.
Gough, Laura
Grogan, Paul
Guo, Laodong
Higuera, Philip E.
Hinzman, Larry
Hu, Feng Sheng
Hugelius, Gustaf
Jafarov, Elchin E.
Jandt, Randi
Johnstone, Jill F.
Karlsson, Jan
Kasischke, Eric S.
Kattner, Gerhard
Kelly, Ryan
Keuper, Frida
Kling, George W.
Kortelainen, Pirkko
Kouki, Jari
Kuhry, Peter
Laudon, Hjalmar
Laurion, Isabelle
Macdonald, Robie W.
Mann, Paul J.
Martikainen, Pertti J.
McClelland, James W.
Molau, Ulf
Oberbauer, Steven F.
Olefeldt, David
Pare, David
Parisien, Marc-Andre
Payette, Serge
Peng, Changhui
Pokrovsky, Oleg S.
Rastetter, Edward B.
Raymond, Peter A.
Raynolds, Martha K.
Rein, Guillermo
Reynolds, James F.
Robards, Martin
Rogers, Brendan M.
Schaedel, Christina
Schaefer, Kevin
Schmidt, Inger K.
Shvidenko, Anatoly
Sky, Jasper
Spencer, Robert G. M.
Starr, Gregory
Striegl, Robert G.
Teisserenc, Roman
Tranvik, Lars J.
Virtanen, Tarmo
Welker, Jeffrey M.
Zimov, Sergei
Publication Year :
2016

Abstract

As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.

Details

Database :
OAIster
Notes :
application/pdf, English
Publication Type :
Electronic Resource
Accession number :
edsoai.ocn957072332
Document Type :
Electronic Resource
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.1088.1748-9326.11.3.034014