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Fossil fuels continue to exacerbate climate change due to large carbon emissions resulting from their use across a number of sectors. An energy transition away from fossil fuels seems inevitable, and energy sources such as renewables and hydrogen may provide a low carbon alternative for the future energy system, particularly in large emitting nations such as the United States. This research quantifies and maps potential hydrogen fuel distribution pathways for the continental US, reflecting technological changes, barriers to deployment, and end-use-cases from 2020 to 2100, clarifying the potential role of hydrogen in the US energy transition. The methodology consists of two parts, a linear optimization of the global energy system constrained by carbon reduction targets and system cost, followed by a projection of hydrogen infrastructure development. Key findings include the emergence of trade pattern diversification, with a greater variety of end-uses associated with imported fuels and greater annual hydrogen consumption over time. Further, sensitivity analysis identified the influence of complementary technologies including nuclear power and carbon capture and storage technologies. We conclude that hydrogen penetration into the US energy system is economically viable and can contribute toward achieving Paris Agreement and more aggressive carbon reduction targets in the future.

Fossil fuels continue to exacerbate climate change due to large carbon emissions resulting from their use across a number of sectors. An energy transition away from fossil fuels seems inevitable, and energy sources such as renewables and hydrogen may provide a low carbon alternative for the future energy system, particularly in large emitting nations such as the United States. This research quantifies and maps potential hydrogen fuel distribution pathways for the continental US, reflecting technological changes, barriers to deployment, and end-use-cases from 2020 to 2100, clarifying the potential role of hydrogen in the US energy transition. The methodology consists of two parts, a linear optimization of the global energy system constrained by carbon reduction targets and system cost, followed by a projection of hydrogen infrastructure development. Key findings include the emergence of trade pattern diversification, with a greater variety of end-uses associated with imported fuels and greater annual hydrogen consumption over time. Further, sensitivity analysis identified the influence of complementary technologies including nuclear power and carbon capture and storage technologies. We conclude that hydrogen penetration into the US energy system is economically viable and can contribute toward achieving Paris Agreement and more aggressive carbon reduction targets in the future.

Fossil fuels continue to exacerbate climate change due to large carbon emissions resulting from their use across a number of sectors. An energy transition away from fossil fuels seems inevitable, and energy sources such as renewables and hydrogen may provide a low carbon alternative for the future energy system, particularly in large emitting nations such as the United States. This research quantifies and maps potential hydrogen fuel distribution pathways for the continental US, reflecting technological changes, barriers to deployment, and end-use-cases from 2020 to 2100, clarifying the potential role of hydrogen in the US energy transition. The methodology consists of two parts, a linear optimization of the global energy system constrained by carbon reduction targets and system cost, followed by a projection of hydrogen infrastructure development. Key findings include the emergence of trade pattern diversification, with a greater variety of end-uses associated with imported fuels and greater annual hydrogen consumption over time. Further, sensitivity analysis identified the influence of complementary technologies including nuclear power and carbon capture and storage technologies. We conclude that hydrogen penetration into the US energy system is economically viable and can contribute toward achieving Paris Agreement and more aggressive carbon reduction targets in the future.

The German-Japanese Energy Transition Council (GJETC) was established in 2016 by experts from research institutions, energy policy think tanks, and practitioners in Germany and Japan. The objectives and main activities of the Council and the supporting secretariats are to identify and analyze current and future issues regarding policy frameworks, markets, infrastructure, and technological developments in the energy transition, and to hold Council meetings to exchange ideas and propose better policies and strategies. In its second project phase (2018-2020), the GJETC had six members from academia on the Japanese side, and eight members on the German side, with one Co-Chair from each country. From October 2018 to March 2020, the GJETC worked on and debated six topics: 1) Digitalization and the energy transition. 2) Hydrogen society. 3) Review of German and Japanese long-term energy scenarios and their evaluation mechanism. 4) Buildings, energy efficiency, heating/cooling. 5) Integration costs of renewable energies. 6) Transport and sector coupling. The outputs and the recommendations of the second phase of the GJETC are summarized in this report.

The challenges and also potentials of the energy transition are tremendous in Germany, as well as in Japan. Sometimes, structures of the old energy world need "creative destruction" to clear the way for innovations for a decarbonized, low-risk energy system. In these times of disruptive changes, a constructive and sometimes controversial dialog within leading industrial nation as Japan and Germany over the energy transition is even more important. The German-Japanese Energy Transition Council (GJETC) released a summarizing report for the first project phase 2016-2018. It includes jointly formulated recommendations for politics as well as a controversial dialogue part. The Council jointly states and recommends that: Ambitious long-term targets and strategies for a low-carbon energy system must be defined and ambitiously implemented; Germany and Japan as high technology countries need to take the leadership. Both countries will have to restructure their energy systems substantially until 2050 while maintaining their competitiveness and securing energy supply. Highest priority is given to the forced implementation of efficiency technologies and renewable energies, despite different views on nuclear energy. In both countries all relevant stakeholders - but above all the decision-makers on all levels of energy policy - need to increase their efforts for a successful implementation of the energy transition. Design of the electricity market needs more incentives for flexibility options and for the extensive expansion of variable power generation, alongside with strategies for cost reduction for electricity from photovoltaic and wind energy. The implementation gap of the energy efficiency needs to be closed by an innovative energy policy package to promote the principle of "Energy Efficiency First". Synergies and co-benefits of an enhanced energy and resource efficiency policy need to be realized. Co-existence of central infrastructure and the growing diversity of the activ

This research details outcomes from a global model which estimates future hydrogen penetration into a carbon constrained energy system to the year 2050. Focusing on minimum and maximum penetration scenarios, an investigation of global fuel cell vehicle (FCV) deployment is undertaken, cognizant of optimal economic deployment at the global level and stakeholder preferences in a case study of Japan. The model is mathematically formulated as a very large-scale linear optimization problem, aiming to minimize system costs, including generation type, fuel costs, conversion costs, and carbon reduction costs, subject to the constraint of carbon dioxide reductions for each nation. Results show that between approximately 0.8% and 2% of global energy consumption needs can be met by hydrogen out to the year 2050, with city gas and transport emerging as significant use cases. Passenger FCVs and hydrogen buses account for almost all of the hydrogen-based transportation sector, leading to a global deployment of approximately 120 million FCVs by 2050. Hydrogen production is reliant on fossil fuels, and OECD nations are net importers - especially Japan with a 100% import case. To underpin hydrogen production from fossil fuels, carbon capture and storage (CCS) is required in significant quantities when anticipating a large fleet of FCVs. Stakeholder engagement suggests optimism toward FCV deployment while policy issues identified include necessity for large-scale future energy system investment and rapid technical and economic feasibility progress for renewable energy technologies and electrolyzers.