101. Modelling the dynamics of frequent users of electronic commenrce in Spain using optimization techniques for inverse problems with uncertainty
- Author
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Universitat Politècnica de València. Instituto Universitario de Matemática Multidisciplinar - Institut Universitari de Matemàtica Multidisciplinària, Universitat Politècnica de València. Departamento de Matemática Aplicada - Departament de Matemàtica Aplicada, Agencia Estatal de Investigación, Burgos-Simon, Clara, Cortés, J.-C., Lombana, Iván Camilo, Martínez Rodríguez, David, Villanueva Micó, Rafael Jacinto, Universitat Politècnica de València. Instituto Universitario de Matemática Multidisciplinar - Institut Universitari de Matemàtica Multidisciplinària, Universitat Politècnica de València. Departamento de Matemática Aplicada - Departament de Matemàtica Aplicada, Agencia Estatal de Investigación, Burgos-Simon, Clara, Cortés, J.-C., Lombana, Iván Camilo, Martínez Rodríguez, David, and Villanueva Micó, Rafael Jacinto
- Abstract
[EN] In this paper, we retrieve data about the frequent users of electronic commerce during the period 2011-2016 from the Spanish National Institute of Statistics. These data,coming from surveys, have intrinsic uncertainty that we describe using appropriate random variables. Then, we propose a stochastic model to study the dynamics of frequent users of electronic commerce. The goal of this paper is to solve the inverse problem that consists of determining themodel parameters as suitable parametric random variables, in such a way the model output be capable of capturing the data uncertainty, at the time instantswhere sample data are available, via adequate probability density functions. To achieve the aforementioned goal, we propose a computational procedure that involves building a nonlinear objective function, based on statistical moment measures, to be minimized using a variation of the particle swarm optimization algorithm.
- Published
- 2018