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Recent evidence indicates that end‐users of US soybeans are placing additional quality specifications in their contracts that are outside those covered by the official USDA grades and standards (such as protein and essential amino acid [EAA] content). This has led some industry groups to publish additional quality data on an annual basis. Using a 14‐year panel data set from North Dakota, this study examines whether the release of quality data has an impact on the basis for soybeans at origins. The regression results strongly support the hypothesis that the additional EAA data had a statistically significant impact upon origin basis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Russian invasion of Ukraine resulted in disruptions in grain flows from that region. As a result of the invasion, Ukraine has evolved from a country with some of the lowest logistical costs in the world to having the highest logistical cost. This paper's purpose is to analyze the effects of the Russian invasion on the logistical functions and the costs for corn exports from the Ukraine and its competitors using an optimized Monte Carlo simulation model. Most important are the effects of the radical increase in shipping costs from the Ukraine, reduced port capacity and export supplies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Developments in world agriculture and the commodity market sector are extremely important internationally, as well as to the United States and to North Dakota specifically. The international agricultural commodities market is subject to more change, and competition both among companies and countries than ever before. In addition, there is now more extensive government interventions (e.g., by China, Russia, Ukraine, as well as the United States) than ever before and these have important impacts on these industries. These include changes in demands, both for volume and segments, growth in demands for fuel from agriculture, increase in competing suppliers, logistics, agricultural technology (including GE and GM technologies, digital technology, and use of ag chemical), as well as the structure research and technology development. These all have dramatic impacts on the entire agricultural industry and for researchers. This lecture provides a description of changes in this sector, and provide impetus for interdisciplinary research and technology development., Biosketch: Dr. William W. Wilson received his Ph.D. in Agricultural Economics from the University of Manitoba in 1980. Since then he has been a Professor at North Dakota State University [...]

There has been substantial growth in investments for startup firms to develop agricultural technology. Although investing in startups can produce significant returns, the risk of failure is high, and the commercial strategies are largely unknown. Traditional valuation methodologies, such as discounted cash flow (DCF) and multiples, are not well suited for startups. Real options provide a methodology to quantify the value of growth opportunities and managerial flexibility, two critical features of startups. This study develops a model that integrates decision trees and a stochastic binomial lattice to quantify the value of growth opportunities and managerial flexibility in a prerevenue AgTech startup. Utilizing a binomial lattice and decision trees allows for the quantification of private and market risk. The result is a valuation that quantifies the upside optionality that other methodologies disregard. [EconLit Citations: O32, O34, Q140, Q16, C6, G11]. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To purchase or authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1744-7976.2007.00094.x Byline: William W. Wilson (1), Bruce L. Dahl (1), D. Demcey Johnson (2) Abstract: Issues related to quality uncertainty in wheat producing countries have escalated in importance in recent years. While Canada addresses these issues in part through variety regulations, firms in the United States resolve these through varying commercial strategies. Conventional alternatives for procurement range from spot purchases with specifications for easily measurable characteristics, to varying forms of strategies with precommitment. In grains, these are complicated by intrinsic uncertainty associated with functional qualities that are not easily measurable and that procurement costs vary spatially. Thus, shifting origins may involve higher cost due to having to bid grain away from its best market. We posed alternative procurement strategies and developed analytical models to evaluate the costs and risks of these in the case of hard red spring (HRS) wheat. Climatic conditions are a source of uncertainty in functional performance which reduces incentives for contracting and vertical integration, and poses a challenge to any form of integrated supply chain management. Les problemes lies a l'incertitude quant a la qualite des approvisionnements des pays producteurs de ble ont augmente au cours des dernieres annees. Tandis que le Canada s'attaque a ces problemes en imposant divers reglements, des entreprises etats-uniennes les resolvent en adoptant diverses strategies commerciales. Les moyens d'approvisionnement traditionnels varient des achats au comptant assortis de criteres pour les caracteristiques facilement mesurables, a diverses strategies comprenant un pre-engagement. Dans le secteur des cereales, la situation est compliquee par l'incertitude intrinseque quant aux qualites fonctionnelles qui ne sont pas facilement mesurables et le fait que les couts d'approvisionnements varient d'un endroit a l'autre. Par consequent, s'approvisionner dans d'autres pays pourrait entrainer des couts plus eleves en privant le secteur de son meilleur marche. Nous avons formule d'autres strategies d'approvisionnement et elabore des modeles analytiques pour evaluer les couts et les risques de ces strategies dans le cas du ble de force roux de printemps. Les conditions climatiques sont une source d'incertitude de la qualite fonctionnelle qui diminue les incitatifs pour la conclusion de contrat et l'integration verticale et qui pose un obstacle pour toute forme de gestion integree de la chaine d'approvisionnement. Author Affiliation: (1)Department of Agribusiness & Applied Economics, North Dakota State University, 221 F Morrill Hall, Fargo, ND 58105 (phone: 701-231-7441; fax: 701-231-7400; e-mail:William.Wilson@ndsu.edu,bdahl@ndsuext.nodak.edu). (2)Branch Chief, Field Crops, Market and Trade Economics Division, Economic Research Service, USDA, Room S5213, 1800 M Street NW, Washington, DC 20036-5831 (phone: 202-694-5310; fax: 202-694-5823; e-mail:djohnson@ers.usda.gov).

To purchase or authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1744-7976.2006.00054.x Byline: William W. Wilson (1), Bruce Dahl (2) Abstract: An analytical model was developed to explore prospective costs and risks of alternative testing strategies for a marketing system in Canada which markets both genetically modified (GM) and Non-GM wheats. The problem is solved using stochastic optimization, base case results are defined, and sensitivities conducted to evaluate impacts of selected variables. Added costs include: testing, rejection, and a risk premium which is required for handlers to be indifferent between the current and the proposed dual system. Protocols would require testing at the point of loading at the primary elevator, and export elevator, and supplementing this information with some form of grower variety declaration. There are several sources of inherent risks in such a system. For buyers, the cumulative impact of these is the risk of receiving GM content in a Non-GM shipment. For sellers, it is the risk of having a Non-GM shipment rejected. For sellers, the risk of rejection was typically less than 2%, and for buyers, the risk was typically less than 0.02%. Nous avons elabore un modele analytique pour explorer les couts et les risques potentiels de la mise en place de nouvelles strategies pour analyser le grain si le Canada decidait de commercialiser du ble genetiquement modifie (GM) et du ble non genetiquement modifie (NGM). Le probleme est resolu a l'aide d'une optimisation stochastique; des scenarios de reference sont definis et des tests de sensitivite sont effectues pour evaluer l'impact de variables selectionnees. Les couts supplementaires comprennent les couts d'analyses, les couts lies au rejet ainsi qu'une prime de risque exigee pour que les manutentionnaires demeurent indifferents entre le systeme actuel et le systeme double propose. Les protocoles obligeraient la tenue d'analyses au point de chargement du silo primaire ainsi qu'au silo terminal, auxquelles s'ajouterait une certaine forme de declaration du cerealiculteur sur la variete. Ce genre de systeme comporte plusieurs sources de risques inherents. Pour les acheteurs, l'impact cumulatif est le risque de recevoir un chargement de ble NGM contenant du ble GM. Pour les vendeurs, c'est le risque qu'un chargement de ble NGM soit rejete. Pour les vendeurs, le risque de rejet etait generalement inferieur a 2%, et pour les acheteurs, le risque etait generalement inferieur a 0.02%. Author Affiliation: (1)Professor and Research Scientist, Department of Agribusiness & Applied Economics, North Dakota State University, Fargo, ND (e-mail:bwilson@ndsuext.nodak.edu). (2)Research Scientist, Department of Agribusiness & Applied Economics, North Dakota State University, Fargo, ND

To purchase or authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1744-7976.2006.00051.x Byline: William W. Wilson (1), William E. Nganje (2), Robert Wagner (3) Abstract: Price risk management confronting grain processors differs from that faced by conventional hedgers, especially when futures markets for outputs do not exist. Three components of this problem are addressed in this study. One is the relationship between input and output prices, which are impacted in part by the structure and conduct of an industry. In some cases, these are highly correlated and in others they are not. The second refers to the hedge horizon or how far forward a firm should cover its inherent and persistent short cash positions. This study incorporates these relationships into a utility maximizing model to evaluate hedging effectiveness relative to traditional hedging strategies for processors. Finally, stochastic dominance analysis is used to compare hedging strategies when output is sold at a fixed price for future delivery. Secondary data from the bread-baking industry are used for empirical analysis. Results indicate that hedging decisions are impacted by these relationships and affect firm risk exposure. La gestion du risque de prix des conditionneurs de grain differe de celle des operateurs en couverture traditionnels, surtout lorsqu'il n'existe pas de marches de contrats a terme pour les extrants. La presente etude traite de trois aspects du probleme. Tout d'abord, il y a la relation entre le prix de l'intrant et le prix de l'extrant, prix qu'influencent en partie la structure et le comportement d'une industrie. Dans certains cas, la correlation est tres etroite et dans d'autres, elle ne l'est pas. Ensuite, il y a l'horizon de couverture ou jusqu'ou dans le futur une entreprise devrait-elle couvrir ses faibles positions de tresorerie inherentes et soutenues. Dans la presente etude, nous avons integre ces relations dans un modele de maximisation de l'utilite pour evaluer l'efficacite des operations de couverture par rapport aux strategies de couverture traditionnelles des conditionneurs. Finalement, l'analyse de la dominance stochastique est utilisee pour comparer les strategies de couverture lorsque l'extrant est vendu a un prix fixe pour livraison a terme. Des donnees secondaires issues de l'industrie de la boulangerie ont ete utilisees pour l'analyse empirique. Les resultats ont indique que ces liens influaient sur les decisions de couverture et que ces decisions avaient des repercussions sur l'exposition au risque de l'entreprise. Author Affiliation: (1)Professor, Department of Agribusiness and Applied Economics, North Dakota State University, PO Box 5636 Fargo, ND 58105-5636 (phone: 701-231-7472; fax: 701-231-7400; e-mail:bwilson@ndsuext.nodak.edu). (2)Associate Professor, Department of Agribusiness and Applied Economics, North Dakota State University, PO Box 5636, Fargo, ND 58105-5636 (phone: 701-231-7459; fax: 701-231-7400; e-mail:wnganje@ndsuext.nodak.edu). (3)Manager of Strategic and Financial Planning, ConAgra Foods, Inc. One ConAgra Drive, CC-334 Omaha, NE 68102 (phone: 402-595-4425; fax: 402-977-9526; e-mail:robert.wagner@conagrafoods.com).

Asymmetric information is prevalent in the grain and oilseed markets. This paper demonstrates the benefits of blockchain technology to mitigate asymmetric information about the soybean's protein quality between sellers and buyers. We use decision trees to model information asymmetry under both conventional and blockchain scenarios. The results suggest that asymmetric information can be mitigated with a blockchain, resulting in substantial premiums (40–60 cents per bushel of soybeans). These results could have significant implications for the grain and oilseed industry in order to decrease transaction costs, to improve market efficiency, and to prioritize strategies for the procurement of soybeans. JEL CLASSIFICATION: O33 Q13; Q17 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]