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Objectives: There is an active debate regarding whether metformin use improves survival in people with ovarian cancer. We examined this issue using methods designed to avoid immortal time bias—as bias that occurs when participants in a study cannot experience the outcome for a certain portion of the study time. Methods: We used time-dependent analyses to study the association between metformin use for all 4,951 patients diagnosed with ovarian cancer in 1997 through 2018 in the province of British Columbia, Canada. Cox proportional hazards models were run to estimate the association between metformin and survival in the full cohort of ovarian cancer patients and among a cohort restricted to patients with diabetes. Results: Metformin use was associated with a 17 % better ovarian cancer survival in the full cohort (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 0.83 (95 %CI 0.67, 1.02)), and a 16 % better ovarian cancer survival for serous cancers patient's cohort (aHR = 0.84 (95 %CI 0.66, 1.07)), although both were not significant. However, a statistically significant protective effect was observed when restricting to the diabetic cohort (aHR = 0.71 (95 %CI 0.54–0.91)), which was also seen among serous cancers (aHR = 0.73 (95 %CI 0.54–0.98)). Conclusion: Metformin use was associated with improved ovarian cancer survival. The lack of statistical significance in the full cohort may reflect that diabetes is associated with reduced cancer survival, and thus diabetes itself may offset the benefit of metformin when examining the full cohort. Future research should examine metformin use among non-diabetic ovarian cancer patients.

Abstract Survival from ovarian cancer depends on the resection status after primary surgery. We performed genome-wide association analyses for resection status of 7705 ovarian cancer patients, including 4954 with high-grade serous carcinoma (HGSOC), to identify variants associated with residual disease. The most significant association with resection status was observed for rs72845444, upstream of MGMT, in HGSOC (p = 3.9 × 10−8). In gene-based analyses, PPP2R5C was the most strongly associated gene in HGSOC after stage adjustment. In an independent set of 378 ovarian tumours from the AGO-OVAR 11 study, variants near MGMT and PPP2R5C correlated with methylation and transcript levels, and PPP2R5C mRNA levels predicted progression-free survival in patients with residual disease. MGMT encodes a DNA repair enzyme, and PPP2R5C encodes the B56γ subunit of the PP2A tumour suppressor. Our results link heritable variation at these two loci with resection status in HGSOC.

ABSTRACTObservational studies suggest a link between vitamin D and the composition of the gut microbiome, but there is little evidence from randomized controlled trials of vitamin D supplementation. We analyzed data from the D-Health Trial, a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial. We recruited 21,315 Australians aged 60–84 y and randomized them to 60,000 IU of vitamin D3 or placebo monthly for 5 y. Stool samples were collected from a sample of 835 participants (417 in the placebo and 418 in the vitamin D group) approximately 5 y after randomization. We characterized the gut microbiome using 16S rRNA gene sequencing. We used linear regression to compare alpha diversity indices (i.e. Shannon index (primary outcome), richness, inverse Simpson index), and the ratio of Firmicutes to Bacteroidetes between the two groups. We analyzed between-sample (beta) diversity (i.e. Bray Curtis distance and UniFrac index) using principal coordinate analysis and used PERMANOVA to test for significant clustering according to randomization group. We also assessed the difference in the abundance of the 20 most abundant genera between the two groups using negative binomial regression model with adjustment for multiple testing. Approximately half the participants included in this analysis were women (mean age 69.4 y). Vitamin D supplementation did not alter the Shannon diversity index (mean 3.51 versus 3.52 in the placebo and vitamin D groups, respectively, p = 0.50). Similarly, there was little difference between the groups for other alpha diversity indices, the abundance of different genera, and the Firmicutes-to-Bacteroidetes ratio. We did not observe clustering of bacterial communities according to randomization group. In conlusion, monthly doses of 60,000 IU of vitamin D supplementation for 5 y did not alter the composition of the gut microbiome in older Australians.

Abstract Background Falls cause considerable morbidity and mortality in older people. It is unclear how vitamin D supplementation affects falls risk, particularly when taken at high doses. We sought to determine whether monthly high‐dose vitamin D supplementation reduces risk and incidence of falls. Methods We used data from the randomized, double‐blind, placebo‐controlled D‐Health Trial conducted in Australia. Between February 2014 and May 2015, 21 315 participants aged 60–84 years were randomized (1:1) to monthly doses of either 60 000 IU of colecalciferol or placebo for a maximum of 5 years. People who reported a history of osteomalacia, sarcoidosis, hyperparathyroidism, hypercalcaemia or kidney stones or who were taking >500 IU/day supplementary vitamin D were ineligible. Each year, we collected blood samples from ~450 randomly sampled participants from each trial arm and measured 25‐hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D]. Falls, a prespecified tertiary outcome, were ascertained using annual surveys and, for a subset of participants, 3‐month falls diaries. The primary outcome for this analysis was any fall in the month before completing an annual survey. As part of our process to maintain blinding, we used random samples of participants (surveys, n = 16 000; diaries, n = 2400), with equal numbers per group. Participants with no outcome data were excluded. Following an intention‐to‐treat approach, we analysed outcomes using logistic, ordinal and negative binomial regression. Registration: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ACTRN12613000743763); registered 4 July 2013. Results Mean treatment duration was 4.3 years (standard deviation [SD] = 1.4 years). Mean serum 25(OH)D concentrations during the trial were 114.8 (SD 30.3) nmol/L and 77.5 (SD 25.2) nmol/L in the vitamin D and placebo groups, respectively. Survey and diary analytic sets included 15 416 and 2200 participants, respectively; approximately half were randomized to vitamin D (surveys: 50.1%; diaries: 50.4%). Vitamin D had no effect on falling in the past month (odds ratio [OR] 1.02, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.95–1.10). There was an interaction with body mass index (BMI) (P‐interaction = 0.001); vitamin D increased risk in participants with BMI

Studies of the genetic association between vitamin D and cancer risk have typically been underpowered. Here the authors analyse this using Mendelian Randomisation with more than 70 vitamin D variants obtained from the UK Biobank and large-scale data from various consortia, confirming null associations between vitamin D and most cancers.

Abstract Background Despite the rapid uptake of genomic technologies within cancer care, few studies provide detailed information on the costs of sequencing across different applications. The objective of the study was to examine and categorise the complete costs involved in genomic sequencing for a range of applications within cancer settings. Methods We performed a cost-analysis using gross and micro-costing approaches for genomic sequencing performed during 2017/2018 across different settings in Brisbane, Australia. Sequencing was undertaken for patients with lung, breast, oesophageal cancers, melanoma or mesothelioma. Aggregated resource data were captured for a total of 1433 patients and point estimates of per patient costs were generated. Deterministic sensitivity analyses addressed the uncertainty in the estimates. Estimated costs to the public health system for resources were categorised into seven distinct activities in the sequencing process: sampling, extraction, library preparation, sequencing, analysis, data storage and clinical reporting. Costs were also aggregated according to labour, consumables, testing, equipment and ‘other’ categories. Results The per person costs were AU$347–429 (2018 US$240–297) for targeted panels, AU$871–$2788 (2018 US$604–1932) for exome sequencing, and AU$2895–4830 (2018 US$2006-3347) for whole genome sequencing. Cost proportions were highest for library preparation/sequencing materials (average 76.8% of total costs), sample extraction (8.1%), data analysis (9.2%) and data storage (2.6%). Capital costs for the sequencers were an additional AU$34–197 (2018 US$24–67) per person. Conclusions Total costs were most sensitive to consumables and sequencing activities driven by commercial prices. Per person sequencing costs for cancer are high when tumour/blood pairs require testing. Using the natural steps involved in sequencing and categorising resources accordingly, future evaluations of costs or cost-effectiveness of clinical genomics across cancer projects could be more standardised and facilitate easier comparison of cost drivers.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

Similarities in cancers can be studied to interrogate their etiology. Here, the authors use genome-wide association study summary statistics from six cancer types based on 296,215 cases and 301,319 controls of European ancestry, showing that solid tumours arising from different tissues share a degree of common germline genetic basis.

Endometrial cancer is the most common invasive gynaecological cancer in developed countries. Here a meta-analysis identifies an additional nine novel endometrial cancer risk loci and eQTL analysis reveals risk variants associate with reduced expression of negative regulators of oncogenic signal transduction proteins.

Abstract Epidemiological, biological, and molecular data suggest links between endometriosis and endometrial cancer, with recent epidemiological studies providing evidence for an association between a previous diagnosis of endometriosis and risk of endometrial cancer. We used genetic data as an alternative approach to investigate shared biological etiology of these two diseases. Genetic correlation analysis of summary level statistics from genomewide association studies (GWAS) using LD Score regression revealed moderate but significant genetic correlation (rg = 0.23, P = 9.3 × 10−3), and SNP effect concordance analysis provided evidence for significant SNP pleiotropy (P = 6.0 × 10−3) and concordance in effect direction (P = 2.0 × 10−3) between the two diseases. Cross‐disease GWAS meta‐analysis highlighted 13 distinct loci associated at P ≤ 10−5 with both endometriosis and endometrial cancer, with one locus (SNP rs2475335) located within PTPRD associated at a genomewide significant level (P = 4.9 × 10−8, OR = 1.11, 95% CI = 1.07–1.15). PTPRD acts in the STAT3 pathway, which has been implicated in both endometriosis and endometrial cancer. This study demonstrates the value of cross‐disease genetic analysis to support epidemiological observations and to identify biological pathways of relevance to multiple diseases.

Background: Many observational studies have reported an association between vitamin D and non-skeletal health outcomes. The D-Health Trial was launched to determine if supplementing the older population with high monthly doses of Vitamin D can prevent cancer and premature mortality. The intervention is ongoing but here we provide a detailed statistical analysis plan for the primary and secondary outcomes of the D-Health Trial. Methods/design: The D-Health Trial is a double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial. Between February 2014 and May 2015, 21,315 people were randomized in a 1:1 ratio to receive monthly doses of either 60,000 IU of cholecalciferol (vitamin D3) or placebo for five years. The primary outcome is all-cause mortality and the secondary outcomes are total cancer incidence and colorectal cancer incidence. These will be ascertained via linkage to death and cancer registries. The primary analysis for each outcome will follow an intention-to-treat approach; we will use flexible parametric survival models to investigate the association between supplementation and time to an event. We describe in detail sophisticated secondary analyses that consider non-compliance and contamination due to off-study supplementation. Conclusions: Publication of this statistical analysis plan in advance of the intervention's completion, and adherence to it, will avoid data-driven analyses of the primary and secondary outcomes and ensure robust reporting of outcomes. Clinical trial registration number: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry: ACTRN12613000743763. Registered on 4 July 2013. Keywords: Statistical analysis plan, Randomized controlled trial, Vitamin D, Mortality, Cancer

Abstract Objectives: To estimate the proportion and numbers of cancers occurring in Australia in 2010 attributable to insufficient levels of physical activity. Methods: We estimated the population attributable fraction (PAF) of cancers causally associated with insufficient physical activity (colon, post‐menopausal breast and endometrium) using standard formulae incorporating prevalence of insufficient physical activity (

Abstract Objectives: To estimate the proportion and numbers of cancers in Australia in 2010 attributable to consuming red/processed meat. Methods: We estimated the population attributable fraction (PAF) for cancers causally associated with red/processed meat consumption (colon, rectum) using standard formulae incorporating prevalence of consumption (1995 National Nutrition Survey), relative risks associated with consumption and cancer incidence. We also estimated the proportion change in cancer incidence (potential impact fraction [PIF]) that might have occurred under two hypothetical interventions whereby Australian adults reduced their consumption of red/processed meat from prevailing levels to ≤100 g or ≤65 g per day, respectively. Results: An estimated 2,614 cases (18%) of colorectal cancer occurring in Australians in 2010 were attributable to red/processed meat consumption (16% of colon cancers; 23% of rectal cancers). We estimated that if all Australian adults had consumed ≤65 g/day or ≤100 g/day of red/processed meat, then the incidence of colorectal cancer would have been 5.4% (798 cancers) or 1.4% (204 cancers) lower, respectively. Conclusions: About one in six colorectal cancers in Australians in 2010 were attributable to red/processed meat consumption. Implications: Reducing red/processed meat intake may reduce colorectal cancer incidence, but must be balanced against nutritional benefits of modest lean meat consumption.

Abstract Objective: To describe the approach underpinning a national project to estimate the numbers and proportions of cancers occurring in Australia in 2010 that are attributable to modifiable causal factors. Methods: We estimated the population attributable fraction (PAF) (or prevented fraction) of cancers associated with exposure to causal (or preventive) factors using standard formulae. Where possible, we also estimated the potential impact on cancer incidence resulting from changes in prevalence of exposure. Analyses were restricted to factors declared causal by international agencies: tobacco smoke; alcohol; solar radiation; infectious agents; obesity; insufficient physical activity; insufficient intakes of fruits, vegetables and fibre; red and processed meat; menopausal hormone therapy (MHT); oral contraceptive pill (OCP); and insufficient breast feeding. Separately, we estimated numbers of cancers prevented by: aspirin; sunscreen; MHT; and OCP use. We discuss assumptions pertaining to latent periods between exposure and cancer onset, choices of prevalence data and risk estimates, and approaches to sensitivity analyses. Results: Numbers and population attributable fractions of cancer are presented in accompanying papers. Conclusions: This is the first systematic assessment of population attributable fractions of cancer in Australia.

Abstract Objective: To estimate the numbers and proportions of cancers occurring in Australia in 2010 attributable to modifiable causal factors. Methods: We estimated the population attributable fraction (PAF) of cancers associated with exposure to 13 causal factors using standard formulae incorporating exposure prevalence and relative risk data. We also calculated the potential impact of changing exposure to some factors. Results: A total of 32% of all cancers diagnosed in Australia in 2010 (excluding keratinocyte cancers) were attributable to the 13 factors assessed (men 33%; women 31%). Leading factors were tobacco smoke (PAF all cancers: 13.4%), solar radiation (6.2%), inadequate diet (6.1%) and overweight/obesity (3.4%). Factors conferring highest PAFs differed by sex: highest PAFs for men were tobacco smoke (15.8%), solar radiation (7.1%) and alcohol (3.0%); while highest PAFs for women were tobacco smoke (10.1%), solar radiation (5.0%) and overweight/obesity (4.5%). Sites with the highest counts of potentially preventable cancers were lung (8,569), colorectal (7,404), melanoma of the skin (7,220) and breast (3,233). Conclusions: At least one in three cancers in Australia is attributable to exposure to known modifiable factors. Implications: Up to 37,000 cancers could be prevented in Australia each year if the population avoided exposure to 13 common factors known or strongly suspected to cause cancer.

Abstract Objectives: To estimate the number and proportion of cancers occurring in Australia in 2010 attributable to consumption deficits in fruit, non‐starchy vegetables and dietary fibre. Methods: We estimated the population attributable fraction (PAF) for cancers causally associated with inadequate intake of fruit and non‐starchy vegetables (oral cavity, pharynx, oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma, stomach, larynx); inadequate intake of fruit (lung); and insufficient intake of fibre (colorectum). We used standard formulae incorporating prevalence of exposure (1995 National Nutrition Survey) and relative risks from independent studies. Results: Overall, 1,555 (1.4% of all) and 311 (0.3% of all) cancers were attributable to inadequate intakes of fruit and non‐starchy vegetables, respectively. A further 2,609 colorectal cancers (18% of colorectal) were attributable to insufficient fibre intake. If Australians increased their fibre intake by eating the recommended daily intakes of fruit and vegetables, an estimated 1,293 (8.8%) colorectal cancers could be prevented. Conclusions: One in six colorectal cancer cases was attributable to inadequate intake of dietary fibre and about 1,800 cancers at other sites were attributable to insufficient fruit and non‐starchy vegetable consumption. Implications: Increasing the proportion of Australians who consume the recommended intake of fruit, vegetables and fibre could prevent up to 4% of all cancers.

Abstract Objective: To estimate the proportion and numbers of cancers occurring in Australia in 2010 that are attributable to alcohol consumption. Methods: We estimated the population attributable fraction (PAF) of cancers causally associated with alcohol consumption using standard formulae incorporating prevalence of alcohol consumption and relative risks associated with consumption and cancer. We also estimated the proportion change in cancer incidence (potential impact fraction [PIF]) that might have occurred under the hypothetical scenario that an intervention reduced alcohol consumption, so that no‐one drank >2 drinks/day. Results: An estimated 3,208 cancers (2.8% of all cancers) occurring in Australian adults in 2010 could be attributed to alcohol consumption. The greatest numbers were for cancers of the colon (868) and female breast cancer (830). The highest PAFs were for squamous cell carcinomas of the oral cavity/pharynx (31%) and oesophagus (25%). The incidence of alcohol‐associated cancer types could have been reduced by 1,442 cases (4.3%) – from 33,537 to 32,083 – if no Australian adult consumed >2 drinks/day. Conclusions: More than 3,000 cancers were attributable to alcohol consumption and thus were potentially preventable. Implications: Strategies that limit alcohol consumption to guideline levels could prevent a large number of cancers in Australian adults.

Abstract Objectives: To estimate the proportion and number of cancers occurring in Australia in 2010 attributable to overweight/obesity. Methods: We estimated the population attributable fraction (PAF) and number of cancers causally associated with overweight/obesity. We used standard formulae incorporating Australian prevalence data for body mass index (BMI), relative risks associated with BMI and cancer. We also estimated the proportion change in cancer incidence (potential impact fraction [PIF]) that may have occurred assuming that the prevalence of overweight/obesity had remained at 1990 levels. Results: An estimated 3,917 cancer cases (3.4% of all cancers) diagnosed in 2010 were attributable to overweight/obesity, including 1,101 colon cancers, 971 female post‐menopausal breast cancers and 595 endometrial cancers (PAFs of 10%, 8% and 26%, respectively). Highest PAFs were observed for oesophageal adenocarcinoma (31%), endometrial cancer (26%) and kidney cancer (19%). If the prevalence of overweight/obesity in Australia had remained at levels prevailing in 1990, we estimate there would have been 820 fewer cancers diagnosed in 2010 (PIF 2%). Conclusions: Overweight/obesity causes a substantial number of cancers in Australia. Implications: Public health strategies to reduce the prevalence of overweight and obesity will reduce the incidence of cancer, particularly of the colon, breast and endometrium.

Abstract Objectives: To estimate the proportion and number of cancers occurring in Australia in 2010 attributable to parous women having breastfed for total durations of ≤12 months. Methods: We estimated the population attributable fraction (PAF) of breast cancers (the only cancer site with convincing evidence of causal association) associated with women breastfeeding for ≤12 months in total, using standard formulae incorporating breastfeeding prevalence data, relative risks associated with breastfeeding and cancer incidence. We also estimated the proportion change in disease incidence (potential impact fraction [PIF]) that might have occurred under two hypothetical scenarios of women breastfeeding for longer durations. Results: An estimated 235 (1.7%) breast cancer cases that occurred in Australian in 2010 could be attributed to women breastfeeding for total durations of ≤12 months. Assuming a hypothetical increase in breastfeeding, we estimated that the number of breast cancers prevented would range from 36 to 51 (prevented fraction = 0.3% to 0.4%). Conclusions: More than 200 breast cancers were attributable to women breastfeeding for total durations of ≤12 months. Implications: Policies to increase breastfeeding duration may help prevent breast cancers in the future.

Abstract Objectives: To estimate the proportion and number of cancers occurring in Australia in 2010 attributable to combined oral contraceptive pill (OCP) use. Methods: We estimated the population attributable fraction (PAF) for cancers causally associated with combined OCP use (breast, cervix), and the proportion of endometrial and ovarian cancers prevented (prevented fraction [PF]). We used standard formulae incorporating prevalence of combined OCP use in the Australian population, relative risks of cancer associated with this exposure and cancer incidence. Results: An estimated 105 breast and 52 cervical cancers (0.7% and 6.4% of each cancer, respectively) in Australia in 2010 were attributable to current use of combined OCP. Past combined OCP use was estimated to have prevented 1,032 endometrial and 308 ovarian cancers in 2010, reducing the number of cancers that would otherwise have occurred by 31% and 19%, respectively. Conclusions: A small proportion of breast and cervical cancers is attributable to combined OCP use; OCP use is likely to have prevented larger numbers of endometrial and ovarian cancers. Implications: Women seeking contraceptive advice should be told of potential adverse effects, but should also be told that – along with reproductive health benefits – combined OCP use can reduce long‐term risks of ovarian and endometrial cancers.

Abstract Objectives: To estimate the proportion and number of cancers occurring in Australia in 2010 attributable to menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) use. Methods: We estimated the population attributable fraction for cancers causally associated with MHT (breast, endometrium, ovary), and the proportion of colorectal cancers prevented by MHT. We used standard formulae incorporating Australian prevalence data, relative risks of cancer associated with MHT and cancer incidence. We also estimated potential change in cancer incidence under two hypothetical scenarios whereby 25% fewer Australian women used MHT, or women exclusively used oestrogen‐only MHT. Results: An estimated 539 cancers in Australia in 2010 were attributable to MHT: 453 breast, 67 endometrial and 19 ovarian cancers equating to 3.4%, 3.1% and 1.6% of each cancer type, respectively. In contrast, MHT may have prevented 52 colorectal cancers. If 25% fewer women used MHT, then 141 cancers may have been avoided. If women exclusively used oestrogen‐only MHT then 240 cancers may have been avoided. Conclusions: MHT use caused more than 500 cancers in Australian women in 2010 and prevented ∼50 colorectal cancers. Implications: MHT use continues to cause an excess of cancers. The risks, benefits, regimen and treatment duration should be carefully considered for each woman before MHT is commenced.

Abstract Objectives: To estimate the population attributable fraction (PAF) and numbers of cancers occurring in Australia in 2010 attributable to tobacco smoking, both personal and by a partner. Methods: We used a modified Peto‐Lopez approach to calculate the difference between the number of lung cancer cases observed and the number expected assuming the entire population developed lung cancer at the same rate as never smokers. For cancers other than lung, we applied the standard PAF formula using relative risks from a large cohort and derived notional smoking prevalence. To estimate the PAF for partners' smoking, we used the standard formula incorporating the proportion of non‐smoking Australians living with an ever‐smoking partner and relative risks associated with partner smoking. Results: An estimated 15,525 (13%) cancers in Australia in 2010 were attributable to tobacco smoke, including 8,324 (81%) lung, 1,973 (59%) oral cavity and pharynx, 855 (60%) oesophagus and 951 (6%) colorectal cancers. Of these, 136 lung cancers in non‐smokers were attributable to partner tobacco smoke. Conclusions: More than one in eight cancers in Australia is attributable to tobacco smoking and would be avoided if nobody smoked. Implications: Strategies to reduce the prevalence of smoking remain a high priority for cancer control.

The role of dietary phyto-oestrogens in health has been of continued interest and debate, but data available on the distribution of intake in the Australian diet are scarce. Therefore, we aimed to estimate phyto-oestrogen consumption in Australian women, describe the pattern of intake and identify correlates of high phyto-oestrogen intake. Study participants were 2078 control women (18–79 years) from two population-based case–control studies on gynaecological cancers (2002–2007). Dietary information was obtained using a 135-item FFQ, and the intakes of isoflavones, lignans, enterolignans and coumestans, including their individual components, were estimated using a database of phyto-oestrogen content in food developed in the UK. Median total intake (energy-adjusted) of phyto-oestrogens was 1·29 mg/d, including 611 µg/d isoflavones, 639 µg/d lignans, 21 µg/d enterolignans and 8 µg/d coumestrol. Both isoflavone and lignan intakes were strongly skewed towards higher values and positively correlated with age. Women consumed on average two servings of soyabean foods/week. Compared to lower phyto-oestrogen consumers (≤1·29 mg/d, median split), higher phyto-oestrogen consumers (>1·29 mg/d) were slightly older, less likely to be smokers, had a higher educational and physical activity level, lower BMI, lower intake of dietary fat, and higher intake of fibre, selected micronutrients and soyabean foods (all P

Objective: Studies evaluating the relationships between coffee, tea and caffeine and ovarian cancer risk have given inconsistent results. We have examined these associations using data from an Australian population-based case–control study.Methods: Women with epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) (n = 696) and control women selected from the Electoral Roll (n = 786) provided comprehensive reproductive and lifestyle data and completed a food frequency questionnaire.Results: Increasing coffee consumption was associated with a decreased risk of invasive EOC (p trend = 0.009) with an odds ratio (OR) of 0.51 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.32–0.80) for consumption of ≥4 cups of coffee per day compared to non-drinkers. The association was significant only for serous and endometrioid/clear cell histological subtypes. There was no association with borderline tumours (OR: 1.20, 95% CI: 0.58–2.47). An inverse relationship was also seen between caffeine intake and EOC but tea consumption was not related to EOC (OR: 1.10 95% CI: 0.76–1.61 for ≥4 cups/day versus none).Conclusions: As tea contributed significantly to caffeine intake in this population we conclude that the association we observed with coffee is not due to caffeine, but to other components within coffee. We suggest future studies consider the type as well as the amount of each beverage consumed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We evaluated the effects of various food groups and micronutrients in the diet on survival among women who originally participated in a population-based case-control study of ovarian cancer conducted across 3 Australian states between 1990 and 1993. This analysis included 609 women with invasive epithelial ovarian cancer, primarily because there was negligible mortality in women with borderline tumors. The women's usual diet was assessed using a validated food frequency questionnaire. Deaths in the cohort were identified using state-based cancer registries and the Australian National Death Index (NDI). Crude 5-year survival probabilities were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier technique, and adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were obtained from Cox regression models. After adjusting for important confounding factors, a survival advantage was observed for those who reported higher intake of vegetables in general (HR = 0.75, 95% CI = 0.57–0.99, p-value trend 0.01 for the highest third, compared to the lowest third), and cruciferous vegetables in particular (HR = 0.75, 95% CI = 0.57–0.98, p-value trend 0.03), and among women in the upper third of intake of vitamin E (HR = 0.76, 95% CI = 0.58–1.01, p-value trend 0.04). Inverse associations were also seen with protein (p-value trend 0.09), red meat (p-value trend 0.06) and white meat (p-value trend 0.07), and modest positive trends (maximum 30% excess) with lactose (p-value trend 0.04), calcium and dairy products. Although much remains to be learned about the influence of nutritional factors after a diagnosis of ovarian cancer, our study suggests the possibility that a diet high in vegetable intake may help improve survival. © 2003 Wiley-Liss, Inc. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BACKGROUND Spontaneous dizygotic (DZ) twinning in humans is under genetic control. In sheep, heterozygous loss of function mutations in bone morphogenetic protein 15 (BMP15) increase ovulation and hence twinning rates. METHODS To investigate the role of BMP15 in human twinning, we typed 14 common variants, 4 rare novel variants initially detected by sequencing 279 mothers of DZ twins (MODZT) and 17 variants previously associated with premature ovarian failure (POF) in 933 DZ twinning families. We also typed five additional POF associated GDF9 variants. RESULTS There was some evidence for association between DZ twinning and a common intronic BMP15 variant (rs3897937), but this was not significant after correction for multiple testing. Three of the four novel variants (p.Pro174Ser, p.Ala311Thr and p.Arg392Thr) occurred in 1–5 MODZT but were not detected in 1512 controls. We also detected three POF associated mutations in both BMP15 and GDF9 at low frequencies in MODZT and controls. CONCLUSIONS We conclude that neither rare nor common BMP15 variants play a significant role in the variation in human DZ twinning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Smoking has been identified as a risk factor for esophageal cancer; however, there is evidence that magnitudes and patterns of association differ by histologic type. The authors aimed to measure and compare the independent effects of various dimensions of smoking (duration, intensity, total dose, and time since quitting) on risks of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC), gastroesophageal junction adenocarcinoma (GEJAC), and esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). They used data from a population-based Australian case-control study (2002–2005) comprising 367 EAC cases, 426 GEJAC cases, and 309 ESCC cases and 1,580 controls. Multivariate logistic and generalized additive logistic regression (for nonlinear dose effects) were used. Ever smokers had significantly higher risks of EAC (odds ratio (OR) = 1.7, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.3, 2.3), GEJAC (OR = 2.4, 95% CI: 1.8, 3.2), and ESCC (OR = 2.8, 95% CI: 2.0, 4.0) than did never smokers; however, there were significant differences in magnitude and patterns of association between subtypes. When multiple dimensions of smoking were assessed concurrently, duration was significantly associated with all three subtypes but intensity was associated only with GEJAC and ESCC, and the associations were nonlinear. For all types of esophageal cancer, time since quitting was independently associated with approximately 15–19% risk reductions per decade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

IntroductionThere have been significant advancements in risk identification and treatment for ovarian cancer over the last decade. However, their impact on health services costs is unclear. This study estimated the direct health system costs (government perspective) for women diagnosed with ovarian cancer in Australia during 2006-2013, as a benchmark prior to opportunities for precision-medicine approaches to treatment, and for health care planning.MethodsUsing cancer registry data, we identified 176 incident ovarian cancers (including fallopian tube and primary peritoneal cancer) in the Australian 45 and Up Study cohort. Each case was matched with four cancer-free controls on sex, age, geography, and smoking history. Costs were derived from linked health records on hospitalisations, subsidised prescription medicines and medical services to 2016. Excess costs for cancer cases were estimated for different phases of care relative to cancer diagnosis. Overall costs for prevalent ovarian cancers in Australia in 2013 were estimated based on 5-year prevalence statistics.ResultsAt diagnosis, 10% of women had localised disease, 15% regional spread and 70% distant metastasis (5% unknown). The mean excess cost per ovarian cancer case was $40,556 in the initial treatment phase (≤12 months post-diagnosis), $9,514 per annum in the continuing care phase and $49,208 in the terminal phase (up to 12 months before death). Hospital admissions accounted for the greatest proportion of costs during all phases (66%, 52% and 68% respectively). Excess costs were higher for patients diagnosed with distant metastatic disease, particularly during the continuing care phase ($13,814 versus $4,884 for localised/regional disease). The estimated overall direct health services cost of ovarian cancer in 2013 was AUD$99million (4,700 women nationally).ConclusionThe excess health system costs of ovarian cancer are substantial. Continued investment in ovarian cancer research, particularly prevention, early detection and more effective personalised treatments is necessary to reduce the burden of disease.

Objective Medical research studies often rely on the manual collection of data from scanned typewritten clinical records, which can be laborious, time consuming and error prone because of the need to review individual clinical records. We aimed to use text mining to assist with the extraction of clinical features from complex text-based scanned pathology records for medical research studies.Design Text mining performance was measured by extracting and annotating three distinct pathological features from scanned photocopies of endometrial carcinoma clinical pathology reports, and comparing results to manually abstracted terms. Inclusion and exclusion keyword trigger terms to capture leiomyomas, endometriosis and adenomyosis were provided based on expert knowledge. Terms were expanded with character variations based on common optical character recognition (OCR) error patterns as well as negation phrases found in sample reports. The approach was evaluated on an unseen test set of 1293 scanned pathology reports originating from laboratories across Australia.Setting Scanned typewritten pathology reports for women aged 18–79 years with newly diagnosed endometrial cancer (2005–2007) in Australia.Results High concordance with final abstracted codes was observed for identifying the presence of three pathology features (94%–98% F-measure). The approach was more consistent and reliable than manual abstractions, identifying 3%–14% additional feature instances.Conclusion Keyword trigger-based automation with OCR error correction and negation handling proved not only to be rapid and convenient, but also providing consistent and reliable data abstractions from scanned clinical records. In conjunction with manual review, it can assist in the generation of high-quality data abstractions for medical research studies.

Overweight and obesity are strongly associated with endometrial cancer. Several independent genome-wide association studies recently identified two common polymorphisms, FTO rs9939609 and MC4R rs17782313, that are linked to increased body weight and obesity. We examined the association of FTO rs9939609 and MC4R rs17782313 with endometrial cancer risk in a pooled analysis of nine case-control studies within the Epidemiology of Endometrial Cancer Consortium (E2C2). This analysis included 3601 non-Hispanic white women with histologically-confirmed endometrial carcinoma and 5275 frequency-matched controls. Unconditional logistic regression models were used to assess the relation of FTO rs9939609 and MC4R rs17782313 genotypes to the risk of endometrial cancer. Among control women, both the FTO rs9939609 A and MC4R rs17782313 C alleles were associated with a 16% increased risk of being overweight (p = 0.001 and p = 0.004, respectively). In case-control analyses, carriers of the FTO rs9939609 AA genotype were at increased risk of endometrial carcinoma compared to women with the TT genotype [odds ratio (OR) = 1.17; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03-1.32, p = 0.01]. However, this association was no longer apparent after adjusting for body mass index (BMI), suggesting mediation of the gene-disease effect through body weight. The MC4R rs17782313 polymorphism was not related to endometrial cancer risk (per allele OR = 0.98; 95% CI: 0.91-1.06; p = 0.68). FTO rs9939609 is a susceptibility marker for white non-Hispanic women at higher risk of endometrial cancer. Although FTO rs9939609 alone might have limited clinical or public health significance for identifying women at high risk for endometrial cancer beyond that of excess body weight, further investigation of obesity-related genetic markers might help to identify the pathways that influence endometrial carcinogenesis.

Alterations in stromal tissue components can inhibit or promote epithelial tumorigenesis. Decorin (DCN) and lumican (LUM) show reduced stromal expression in serous epithelial ovarian cancer (sEOC). We hypothesized that common variants in these genes associate with risk. Associations with sEOC among Caucasians were estimated with odds ratios (OR) among 397 cases and 920 controls in two U.S.-based studies (discovery set), 436 cases and 1,098 controls in Australia (replication set 1) and a consortium of 15 studies comprising 1,668 cases and 4,249 controls (replication set 2). The discovery set and replication set 1 (833 cases and 2,013 controls) showed statistically homogeneous (P(heterogeneity)≥0.48) decreased risks of sEOC at four variants: DCN rs3138165, rs13312816 and rs516115, and LUM rs17018765 (OR = 0.6 to 0.9; P(trend) = 0.001 to 0.03). Results from replication set 2 were statistically homogeneous (P(heterogeneity)≥0.13) and associated with increased risks at DCN rs3138165 and rs13312816, and LUM rs17018765: all ORs = 1.2; P(trend)≤0.02. The ORs at the four variants were statistically heterogeneous across all 18 studies (P(heterogeneity)≤0.03), which precluded combining. In post-hoc analyses, interactions were observed between each variant and recruitment period (P(interaction)≤0.003), age at diagnosis (P(interaction) = 0.04), and year of diagnosis (P(interaction) = 0.05) in the five studies with available information (1,044 cases, 2,469 controls). We conclude that variants in DCN and LUM are not directly associated with sEOC, and that confirmation of possible effect modification of the variants by non-genetic factors is required.

The association of ovarian carcinoma risk with the polymorphism rs1271572 in the estrogen receptor beta (ESR2) gene was examined in 4946 women with primary invasive ovarian carcinoma and 6582 controls in a pooled analysis of ten case-control studies within the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium (OCAC). All participants were non-Hispanic white women. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using unconditional logistic regression adjusted for site and age. Women with the TT genotype were at increased risk of ovarian carcinoma compared to carriers of the G allele (OR = 1.10; 95%; CI: 1.01-1.21; p = 0.04); the OR was 1.09 (CI: 0.99-1.20; p = 0.07) after excluding data from the center (Hawaii) that nominated this SNP for OCAC genotyping A stronger association of rs1271572 TT versus GT/GG with risk was observed among women aged ≤50 years versus older women (OR = 1.35; CI: 1.12-1.62; p = 0.002; p for interaction = 0.02) that remained statistically significant after excluding Hawaii data (OR = 1.34; CI: 1.11-1.61; p = 0.009). No heterogeneity of the association was observed by study, menopausal status, gravidity, parity, use of contraceptive or menopausal hormones, tumor histological type, or stage at diagnosis. This pooled analysis suggests that rs1271572 might influence the risk of ovarian cancer, in particular among younger women.

We hypothesized that variants in genes expressed as a consequence of interactions between ovarian cancer cells and the host micro-environment could contribute to cancer susceptibility. We therefore used a two-stage approach to evaluate common single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 173 genes involved in stromal epithelial interactions in the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium (OCAC). In the discovery stage, cases with epithelial ovarian cancer (n=675) and controls (n=1,162) were genotyped at 1,536 SNPs using an Illumina GoldenGate assay. Based on Positive Predictive Value estimates, three SNPs-PODXL rs1013368, ITGA6 rs13027811, and MMP3 rs522616-were selected for replication using TaqMan genotyping in up to 3,059 serous invasive cases and 8,905 controls from 16 OCAC case-control studies. An additional 18 SNPs with Pper-alleleor=0.5). However genotypes at TERT rs7726159 were associated with ovarian cancer risk in the smaller, five-study replication study (Pper-allele=0.03). Combined analysis of the discovery and replication sets for this TERT SNP showed an increased risk of serous ovarian cancer among non-Hispanic whites [adj. ORper-allele 1.14 (1.04-1.24) p=0.003]. Our study adds to the growing evidence that, like the 8q24 locus, the telomerase reverse transcriptase locus at 5p15.33, is a general cancer susceptibility locus.

Purpose: Clinicopathologic data from a population-based endometrial cancer cohort, unselected for age or family history, were analyzed to determine the optimal scheme for identification of patients with germline mismatch repair (MMR) gene mutations., Patients and Methods: Endometrial cancers from 702 patients recruited into the Australian National Endometrial Cancer Study (ANECS) were tested for MMR protein expression using immunohistochemistry (IHC) and for MLH1 gene promoter methylation in MLH1-deficient cases. MMR mutation testing was performed on germline DNA of patients with MMR-protein deficient tumors. Prediction of germline mutation status was compared for combinations of tumor characteristics, age at diagnosis, and various clinical criteria (Amsterdam, Bethesda, Society of Gynecologic Oncology, ANECS)., Results: Tumor MMR-protein deficiency was detected in 170 (24%) of 702 cases. Germline testing of 158 MMR-deficient cases identified 22 truncating mutations (3% of all cases) and four unclassified variants. Tumor MLH1 methylation was detected in 99 (89%) of 111 cases demonstrating MLH1/PMS2 IHC loss; all were germline MLH1 mutation negative. A combination of MMR IHC plus MLH1 methylation testing in women younger than 60 years of age at diagnosis provided the highest positive predictive value for the identification of mutation carriers at 46% versus ≤ 41% for any other criteria considered., Conclusion: Population-level identification of patients with MMR mutation-positive endometrial cancer is optimized by stepwise testing for tumor MMR IHC loss in patients younger than 60 years, tumor MLH1 methylation in individuals with MLH1 IHC loss, and germline mutations in patients exhibiting loss of MSH6, MSH2, or PMS2 or loss of MLH1/PMS2 with absence of MLH1 methylation.