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Abstract It is generally believed that the Maritime Continent (MC) is rarely affected by tropical cyclones (TCs) due to its equatorial location. However, this study reveals that TCs in the tropical western North Pacific can significantly suppress rainfall over the MC and its surrounding seas, based on the composite analysis. This suppression effect of TCs exists across all phases of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). TCs greatly alleviate rainfall enhancement during the convective phases of the MJO and aggravate rainfall suppression during the suppressive phases. Particularly, TCs reduce the likelihood of extremely high rainfall in convective MJO phases from 9% to 5% and increase the likelihood of extremely low rainfall in suppressive MJO phases from 10% to 16%. The rainfall suppression is attributed to the lower-tropospheric southwesterly anomalies to the south of TCs, which result in moisture divergence over the MC. Additionally, the upper-tropospheric equatorward outflows of TCs also promote subsidence and suppress rainfall. This study introduces a new factor influencing the rainfall over the MC from a synoptic climatology perspective.

Abstract The tropical cyclones (TCs) often cause intense rain and destructive winds. While these catastrophic weather conditions capture our attention, the less-known impact of TCs remains overlooked. This study reveals that TCs have a notable suppressive effect on monsoonal rainfall in southern China when they traverse the South China Sea. This phenomenon can be attributed to the influence of these mesoscale disturbances on the quasi-stationary, large-scale monsoonal circulation, which alters the moisture pathway. Furthermore, the case-by-case analysis indicates that ~76% of TCs correspond to rainfall reduction, whereas the other 24% correspond to rainfall increase. The latter is due to the concurrent occurrence of another independent influencing factor: extratropical cyclonic anomalies that promote enhanced rainfall through favoring lower-tropospheric moisture convergence. This study suggests that TCs, as mesoscale disturbances, can change the moisture channel that is usually controlled by quasi-stationary and large-scale monsoonal airflows, and suppress the adjacent land rainfall over China.

Study region: The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA), China. Study focus: Using hourly rain gauge data and CMORPH data, we use the duration-dependent generalized extreme value (d-GEV) model and the scaling invariant GEV model inferred by the Bayesian hierarchical model to derive the intensity-duration-frequency IDF characteristics of extreme precipitation in GBA and adjust their uncertainties. New hydrological insights for the region: The GEV location and scale parameters of IDF curves in GBA show similar spatial distribution and the higher-resolution CMORPH can capture more local details than rain gauge data. Meanwhile, compared with the rain gauge data, CMORPH produces significantly lower rainfall intensity of storms with short durations, which leads to large uncertainties of IDF curves derived from CMORPH for the short-duration rainfall. Additionally, the uncertainties of IDF curves can be substantially reduced by using the scaling invariant model that was inferred by the Bayesian hierarchical model, compared with the ordinary d-GEV method. Therefore, the Bayesian inference is suggested to be adopted for regional estimation of IDF curves, especially for regions of limited sub-daily gauge data.

Summary: Relationships among productivity, leaf phenology, and seasonal variation in moisture and light availability are poorly understood for evergreen broadleaved tropical/subtropical forests, which contribute 25% of terrestrial productivity. On the one hand, as moisture availability declines, trees shed leaves to reduce transpiration and the risk of hydraulic failure. On the other hand, increases in light availability promote the replacement of senescent leaves to increase productivity. Here, we provide a comprehensive framework that relates the seasonality of climate, leaf abscission, and leaf productivity across the evergreen broadleaved tropical/subtropical forest biome. The seasonal correlation between rainfall and light availability varies from strongly negative to strongly positive across the tropics and maps onto the seasonal correlation between litterfall mass and productivity for 68 forests. Where rainfall and light covary positively, litterfall and productivity also covary positively and are always greater in the wetter sunnier season. Where rainfall and light covary negatively, litterfall and productivity are always greater in the drier and sunnier season if moisture supplies remain adequate; otherwise productivity is smaller in the drier sunnier season. This framework will improve the representation of tropical/subtropical forests in Earth system models and suggests how phenology and productivity will change as climate change alters the seasonality of cloud cover and rainfall across tropical/subtropical forests. Public summary: • Three climate-phenology regimes are identified across tropical and subtropical forest biomes • Where light and water limit plant in dry season, litterfall and productivity peak in sunny wet season • Where light or water alternately limits plant, productivity peaks in wet season with low litterfall • Where water does not limit plant, litterfall and productivity peak in sunny dry season

Abstract Convection is highly active on tropical islands. Based on a 3‐year radar climatology over Hainan Island, a mountainous tropical island in South China, we identified a distinct spatial dependence of convection initiation (CI) on the speed of the large‐scale low‐level flow. Convection initiates most prominently over the lee‐side plains in high‐wind conditions while over mountains in low‐wind conditions. Quasi‐idealized numerical simulations suggest that mountain ridges stimulate the formation and growth of horizontal convective rolls (HCRs) over the lee‐side plains in high‐wind conditions. These HCRs subsequently intersect with sea‐breeze fronts, which enhances the low‐level convergence favoring CI on the lee‐side plains of the island. During low‐wind conditions, thermally driven circulations control and favor CI over the mountains during the day. The findings highlight that the response of local circulations to the lower‐troposphere ambient flow and diurnal thermal heating is an important aspect of convection initiation on the island.

The East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) exhibits long-term variations in intensity and spatial pattern, though the latter one is less understood. To investigate the long-term spatial variations of the EAWM and their possible causes, we propose a new position index of the EAWM by quantifying the low-level East Asian stream (EAS) of cold airmass in the Lagrangian sense. Based on the new-defined index, we find that the EAS undergoes an evident zonal shift between two channels over the land and coast. At interdecadal timescale, the peak location of the EAS is displaced eastward, with an increasing southward cold airmass flux at the coast since the mid-1960s. The interannual shift of the EAS presents not only the zonal oscillation of peak location between two channels but also the width changes of coastal channel over the northwestern Pacific. These shifts in the EAS are related to the strength changes of two source cold airmass streams from Siberia or Bering Sea, which are associated with the phase changes in the upper-tropospheric atmospheric teleconnections. At interdecadal timescale, the phase change in the North Atlantic Oscillation modulates the zonal shift in the EAS via the East Atlantic-West Russia teleconnection. At interannual timescale, the Pacific/North American teleconnection becomes the dominant factor altering the zonal shift and width change of the EAS.

The northern polar region possesses the most extensive cold airmass on Northern Hemisphere. The generation of this polar cold airmass and its outflow to lower latitudes play an important role in the climate system in terms of mass and heat exchanges. However, long-term changes in the polar cold airmass, especially in summer, and the climatic effects on mid-high latitudes are still unclear. Using an isentropic approach, we quantitatively show that the polar cold airmass amount has decreased rapidly since the 1980s, with a decade lagging behind the global warming. The equatorward flux of the cold airmass has also weakened, trapping the cold airmass in its source region. These profound changes in the cold airmass coincide with a period characterized by rapid surface warming and increasingly frequent heat waves in recent three decades over the mid-high latitude continents. Owing to regional differences in the cold airmass reduction, Europe and North America have experienced a surface warming faster than the Northern Hemisphere mean. Furthermore, such a long-term trend in the polar cold airmass can be attributed to Arctic sea ice loss and internal decadal variability of sea surface temperature in high-latitude oceans. Our results highlight that the isentropic analysis of cold airmass may serve a good detection of the climate change at polar region and mid-high latitudes.

Anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHG) and anthropogenic aerosols (AA) have changed radiation balance and regulated the regional climate at seasonal or longer time scales. Based on station observations, reanalyses, and satellite observations, this study examines how anthropogenic forcings affect surface temperature and strongly regulate the regional climate at a diurnal time scale over the North China plains (NCP) in July and August. As AA cooling is dominant in the daytime over low-lying plains, it leads to a cooler day-warmer night temperature trend that decreases the diurnal temperature range over NCP but increases the thermal contrast between NCP and its west highlands. In response to the daytime cooling, the weakened vertical thermal contrast decreases the boundary layer turbulent mixing in the daytime and reduces friction to low-level winds, which leads to anomalous southerlies at 2000 LST over NCP. In contrast, nighttime warming results in anomalous northerlies at 0200 LST. On the other hand, in response to the enlarged horizontal thermal contrast, the stronger mountain-plain circulation helps to intensify low-level ascent over the plains at 0200 LST. These human-induced changes in the diurnal variation of regional circulations are conducive to the increased moisture convergence at 2000 and 0200 LST over NCP. The nighttime proportion of precipitation accordingly exhibits an increasing trend over NCP, though the seasonal precipitation decreases because of the weakened monsoon background. These findings highlight that the diurnal cycle of regional circulations can express a strong dynamic response to the radiation effect of anthropogenic forcings and thus affect the long-term change in regional climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the diurnal cycles of convective activities and low-level winds with emphasis on their interactions during the East Asian summer monsoon. We categorize atmospheric convection states using satellite-derived cloud regimes and group southerly monsoon flows with different characteristics of diurnal cycles, and found that they are closely related to each other. Over South China, deep convection and associated cirrus anvils produce a strongly negative shortwave cloud radiative effect and induce anomalous cooling in the ABL in the daytime, which reduces the diurnal amplitude of monsoon flows during the night that follows. Conversely, a fair-weather state in the daytime leads to an anomalously warm ABL that enhances the subsequent nighttime acceleration of the monsoon southerlies. The dominant cloud regimes in the daytime over South China are closely related to whether the organized deep convection over the Yun-Gui Plateau (southeast of the Tibetan Plateau) propagates eastward during the preceding night. Such a precursor of clouds/convection governing wind diurnal amplitude indicates a possible predictability of monsoon diurnal cycles over South China. Further analyses show that the cloud regimes and induced monsoon diurnal cycles over South China can regulate the moist convection over the downstream region (central China) through modulating moisture transport and convergence. Therefore, the observational statistics of this study reveal a strong coupling of clouds, radiation, winds, and precipitation at the diurnal time scale over the summer monsoon regions, in which the cloud radiative effects of atmospheric convection can strongly regulate the diurnal variations of low-level winds that further influence precipitation downstream. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The cold air outbreak (CAO) is the most important way to reduce air pollution during the winter over North China. However, a rapid reappearance of air pollution is usually observed during its decay phase. Is there any relationship between the reappearance of air pollution and the properties of CAO? To address this issue, we investigated the possible connection between air pollution reappearance and CAO by quantifying the properties of the residual cold airmass after CAO. Based on the analyses in recent winters (2014-2019), we found that the rapid reappearance of air pollution in the CAO decay phase has an occurrence frequency of 74%, and the air quality in more than 50% of CAOs worsens than that before CAO. The reappearance of air pollution tends to occur in the residual cold airmass with weak horizontal flux during the first two days after CAO. By categorizing the CAOs into groups of rapid and slow air pollution reappearance, we found that the residual cold airmass with moderate depth of 150-180 hPa, large negative heat content and small slopes of isentropes is favorable for the rapid reappearance of air pollution. Among these factors, the cold airmass depth is highly consistent with the mixing layer height, below which contains most air pollutants; the negative heat content and slope of isentropes in cold airmass jointly determine the intensity of low-level vertical stability. The rapid reappearance of air pollution is also attributed to the maintenance of residual cold airmass and the above conditions, which is mainly regulated by the dynamic transport process rather than diabatic cooling or heating. Furthermore, analysis of the large-scale circulation of CAOs in their initial stage shows that the anticyclonic (cyclonic) pattern in northern Siberia (northeastern Asia) can be recognized as a precursor for the rapid (slow) reappearance of air pollution after the CAO. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study revisits the long-term variabilities of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) in 1958–2017 through examination of diurnal cycles. We group monsoon days into four dynamic quadrants (Q1 to Q4), with emphasis on the strong daily southerlies coupled with a large (Q1) or small (Q4) diurnal amplitude over Southeast China. The occurrence day of Q1 increases in June–July with the seasonal progress of the EASM. It is most pronounced in the 1960s to the 1970s and declines to the lowest in the 1980s to the 1990s, whereas the Q4 occurrence increases notably from the 1970s to the 1990s; both groups return to normal in recent years. The interdecadal decrease (increase) of Q1 (Q4) occurrence corresponds well to the known weakening of EASM in the twentieth century, and it also coincides with the rainfall anomalies over China shifting from a “north flooding and south drought” to a “north drought and south flooding” mode. The rainfall under Q1 (Q4) can account for ~60% of the interannual variance of summer rainfall in northern (southern) China. The contrasting effects of Q1 and Q4 on rainfall are due to their remarkably different regulation on water vapor transport and convergence. The interannual/interdecadal variations of Q1 (Q4) occurrence determine the anomalous water vapor transports to northern (southern) China, in association with the various expansion of the western Pacific subtropical high. In particular, Q1 conditions can greatly intensify nighttime moisture convergence, which is responsible for the long-term variations of rainfall in northern China. The results highlight that the diurnal cycles in monsoon flow act as a key regional process working with large-scale circulation to regulate the spatial distributions and long-term variabilities of EASM rainfall. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Through conducting dynamic and thermodynamic diagnoses as well as a series of numerical sensitivity simulations, we investigated the effects of the terrain, coastline, and cold pools on convection initiation (CI) and its subsequent upscale convective growth (UCG) during a case of heavy rainfall along the coast of South China. CI occurred at the vertex of the coastal concave mountain geometry as a combined result of coastal convergence, orographic lifting, and mesoscale ascent driven by the terminus of a marine boundary layer jet (MBLJ). In numerical simulations with the coastline or terrain of South China removed, the coastal CI does not occur or becomes weaker as the MBLJ extends farther north, suggesting that the coastline and terrain play a role in CI. In addition, local small-scale terrain can modulate the detailed location and timing of CI and UCG. When the coastal concave terrain and coastline near the CI are artificially removed or filled by additional mountains, the orographic lifting and the local convergence along the coast correspondingly change, which strongly affects the CI and UCG. From a thermodynamic perspective, the coastal concave terrain plays the role of a local moisture ‘‘catcher,’’ which promotes low-level moistening by blocking water vapor coming from an upstream moist tongue over the ocean. Furthermore, new convection is continuously generated by the lifting of low-level moist southerlies at the leading edges of cold pools that tend to move southeastward because of the blocking coastal mountains. Sensitivity experiments suggest that the MCS becomes weaker and moves more slowly when cold pools are weakened through a reduction of rain-evaporation cooling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Convection initiation (CI) and the subsequent upscale convective growth (UCG) at the coast of South China in a warm-sector heavy rainfall event are shown to be closely linked to a varying marine boundary layer jet (MBLJ) over the northern South China Sea (NSCS). To elucidate the dynamic and thermodynamic roles of the MBLJ in CI and UCG, we conducted and analyzed convection-permitting numerical simulations and observations. Compared to radar observations, the simulations captured CI locations and the following southwest–northeast-oriented convection development. The nocturnal MBLJ peaks at 950 hPa and significantly intensifies with turning from southwesterly to nearly southerly by inertial oscillation. The strengthened MBLJ promotes mesoscale ascent on its northwestern edge and terminus where enhanced convergence zones occur. Located directly downstream of the MBLJ, the coastal CI and UCG are dynamically supported by mesoscale ascent. From a thermodynamic perspective, a warm moist tongue over the NSCS is strengthened by the MBLJ-driven mesoscale ascent as well as by a high sea surface temperature. The warm moist tongue farther extends northeastward by horizontal transport and arrives at the coast where CI and UCG occur. Near the CI location, rapid development of a low-level saturated layer is mainly attributed to the mesoscale ascent and low-level moistening associated with the MBLJ. In addition, subsequent CI happens on either side of the original CI along the coast due to the delay of low-level moistening, which partly contributes to linear convective growth. Furthermore, ensemble simulations confirmed that a stronger MBLJ is more favorable to CI and UCG near the coast. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Low-level jets (LLJs) are a key factor regulating the early-summer rainfall over southern China. Their detailed activities and impact are examined using 21-yr ERA5 and TRMM rainfall data. The LLJs typically consist of boundary layer jets (BLJs) and synoptic-system-related LLJs (SLLJs). The BLJ is usually characterized by a southerly wind maximum at 950 hPa over the northern area of South China Sea, whereas the SLLJ features a southwesterly wind maximum at 850-700 hPa located more north on land. Meanwhile, the BLJ (SLLJ) has a maximum occurrence in April-June (May-July) and at late night (in the early morning), indicating the differences in seasonal and diurnal variations. The two types of LLJs are found to influence the rainfall distribution via terrain effects, synoptic disturbances, and moisture transport. During the BLJ events, rainfall is mainly confined to the south side of the Nanling and Wuyi Mountains and Yun-Gui Plateau (south region), whereas during the SLLJ events rainfall occurs both in the coastal region and to the north of the mountains (north region). The difference is caused by the southerly BLJ that induces strong orographic lifting on the windward side of the mountains, while the elevated SLLJ can pass over the mountains driving an additional upward motion more north. Active synoptic disturbances accompanied by SLLJs are also favorable for the rainfall in the north region. The moisture transportation by LLJs is another important factor regulating rainfall distribution. Rainfall in the south (north) region is mainly attributed to the net moisture flux in the boundary layer (more elevated layers) due to the BLJ (SLLJ). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]