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A significant share of anthropogenic global warming comes from livestock production. There is debate about whether there can be any role for livestock in a climatically sustainable future; the debate is particularly heated for cows and sheep, largely due to the methane they burp out. However, short-lived gases like methane affect climate in a fundamentally different way than long-lived gases like carbon dioxide. Consequently, climate stabilization does not require zeroing-out cattle herds. But this doesn't mean we can eat our beef and have it (a tolerable climate) too—livestock still contribute to global warming. Preventing or limiting future growth in livestock-related emissions can represent a sensible part of the portfolio of responses to the climate crisis, particularly when carbon dioxide emissions are not on track to reach net zero sufficiently quickly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the climate warms, extended drought and heat events in the United States are driving an increase in acres burned and homes lost to wildfire. The most devastating wildfires happen when dry winds carry embers long distances, start spot fires and ignite homes. Burning homes then become the fuel that ignites other nearby homes, causing mass conflagrations. Today wildfire is largely approached as a problem that can be controlled through vegetation treatments and firefighting, but that strategy has not stopped the loss of homes and even entire communities. However, new observational and analytical tools have given firefighters, governments, and the public a better understanding of wildfire and how to prepare for it. By redefining the wildfire problem as a home ignition problem, communities can survive even extreme fires and can safely reintroduce fire to the land. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme precipitation events can have a significant impact on the environment, agriculture, economy and safety, making close monitoring of their short‐ and long‐term trends essential for the development of effective mitigation and adaptation strategies. In this study, we analysed 16 in situ observation datasets from four different climate zones in Algeria, spanning from 1969 to 2021. The trend analysis was conducted using the original Mann–Kendall test and seven modified tests to eliminate the effects of short‐term persistence. Our findings reveal a significant increasing trend of extreme precipitation variability for most stations in the Warm Mediterranean climate zone, except for the Consecutive dry days index, which showed a negative trend for the same zone, while stations in the Cold/Warm semi‐arid climate and Cold desert climate (Bwk) zones showed a decreasing trend. Additionally, all index series with significant long‐term trends were affected by a significant shift in their means, which was confirmed by both the Lombard and Pettitt tests. However, when we used the modified MPT and the test eliminating the effects of long‐term persistence, the significance of the shifts and the trend decreased. Our results suggest that while extreme precipitation events have been increasing in some parts of Algeria; the trend may not be statistically significant in the long‐run, indicating the necessity of revisiting and refreshing the findings of previous studies for a more current perspective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Compound wind and precipitation extremes (CWPEs) can severely impact natural and socioeconomic systems. However, our understanding of CWPE future changes, drivers, and uncertainties under a warmer climate is limited. Here, by analyzing the event both on oceans and landmasses via state‐of‐the‐art climate model simulations, we reveal a poleward shift of CWPE occurrences by the late 21st century, with notable increases at latitudes exceeding 50° in both hemispheres and decreases in the subtropics around 25°. CWPE intensification occurs across approximately 90% of global landmasses, and is most pronounced under a high‐emission scenario. Most changes in CWPE frequency and intensity (about 70% and 80%, respectively) stem from changes in precipitation extremes. We further identify large uncertainties in CWPE changes, which can be understood at the regional level by considering climate model differences in trends of CWPE drivers. These results provide insights into understanding CWPE changes under a warmer climate, aiding robust regional adaptation strategy development. Plain Language Summary: Concurrent wind and precipitation extremes (CWPEs), a typical case of compound weather events, can cause flooding and strong winds that can paralyze public transportation, trigger power outages, and destroy houses and shelters. Furthermore, CWPE over the ocean can endanger the shipment of goods and its logistics. Yet, our understanding of the projected changes, underlying drivers, and uncertainties under a warmer climate is limited. Here, analyzing for the first time CWPEs both on global oceans and landmasses allows us to reveal a poleward shift of CWPEs at the global scale in response to climate change. We show that changes in precipitation extremes play a dominant role in determining the future changes in the frequency and intensity of CWPEs. Furthermore, at the regional level, we reveal substantial uncertainties in projections due to differences between the used climate models. We illustrate that these uncertainties are due to model differences in trends of CWPE drivers and argue that they should be addressed explicitly in impact assessments for guiding the development of robust adaptation strategies. Key Points: An intensification and poleward shift of compound wind and precipitation extremes (CWPEs) will occur in a warmer climateMost changes in frequency and intensity of CWPEs stem from changes in precipitation extremesSubstantial uncertainties at the regional level in projections of CWPEs are due to structural model differences [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Strengthening aquatic resilience to prevent adverse shifts is critical for preserving global freshwater biodiversity and advancing Sustainable Development Goals. Nonetheless, understanding the long‐term trends and underlying causes of lake ecosystem resilience at a global scale remains elusive. Here, we employ an innovative framework, integrating satellite‐derived water quality indices with early warning signals and machine learning techniques, to investigate the dynamics of resilience in 1,049 lakes worldwide during 2000–2018. Our results indicate that 46.7% of lakes are experiencing a significant decline in resilience, particularly since the early 2010s, closely associated with higher human population density and anthropogenic eutrophication. In contrast, most lakes situated in alpine regions exhibit an increase in resilience, probably benefiting from climate warming and wetting. Together, this study provides a novel way to monitor lake resilience and predict undesired transitions, and reveals a widespread erosion in the ability of lakes to withstand stressors associated with global change. Plain Language Summary: Based on water quality data from satellite observation and generic indicators of ecological resilience, we found 46.7% of lakes worldwide are experiencing a significant decline in the ability to resist and recover from environmental disturbances. This issue is exacerbated in Northern Europe and Eastern North America, closely related to local human impacts, such as anthropogenic eutrophication. As the regional wealth grows, like in central North America, the negative impact of human activity on aquatic ecosystems may decrease. In contrast, in regions like the Tibetan Plateau and Andes Mountains, lakes are actually showing an increase in resilience, indicating that ecosystems may adapt to or even benefit from climate change. Our analysis' global scope allows us to better understand lake ecosystem dynamics and the socioeconomic drivers associated with them. This knowledge will help manage lakes' response to global change. Key Points: Over the last two decades (2000–2018), nearly half of global lakes experienced resilience lossLake resilience decline is closely linked to human activities in the catchmentsSatellite data effectively track early warning signals of lake resilience loss [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Vietnam upwelling is a crucial circulation feature in the South China Sea. Although previous studies have shown that various coastal upwellings around the world may intensify under global warming, future changes in the Vietnam upwelling remain unclear. To address this knowledge gap, we analyzed the long‐term trend in the Vietnam upwelling under a high‐emission scenario for the period 2006–2100, using simulation results from a global eddy‐resolving climate model. In this model, the summertime Vietnam upwelling is projected to intensify in the 21st century and is statistically significant between 12°N and 14°N. A volume flux budget analysis indicates that wind stress curl is the most important contributor to the intensification. The geostrophic flow, to some extent, may suppress the upwelling intensification. The projected increase in upwelling is shown to significantly reduce local ocean warming and freshening and thus may have vital impacts on the local climate and circulation. Plain Language Summary: The South China Sea is characterized by an intense upwelling to the east of the Vietnam coast. Prior studies have reported that global warming can significantly affect the global wind stress. Since the Vietnam upwelling is mainly caused by the prevailing southwesterly monsoon, a question arises naturally: whether this upwelling will intensify under the global warming. Using a global climate model with a horizontal resolution of ∼0.1°, we found that the summertime Vietnam upwelling was projected to increase by ∼1 m/day from the first 30 years to the last 30 years in the 21st century. The increase mainly results from an increase in the wind stress curl. The geostrophic flow can suppress the increase in upwelling; this finding is consistent with some prior studies. Moreover, this study showed that intensified upwelling can significantly reduce the increase in the local seawater temperature and the decrease in the local seawater salinity. Key Points: The Vietnam upwelling is projected to increase under a high‐emission scenarioThe wind stress curl dominates the long‐term change in the Vietnam upwellingIncreased upwelling may significantly affect local ocean warming and freshening [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Amplification of sea surface temperature (SST) seasonality in response to global warming is a robust feature in climate model projections but season‐dependent regional disparities in this amplification and the associated mechanisms are not well addressed. Here, by analyzing large ensemble simulations using Community Earth System Model version 2, we investigate detailed spatiotemporal characteristics of the amplification of SST seasonality focusing on the North Pacific and North Atlantic, where robust changes are projected to emerge around 2050 under SSP3‐7.0 scenario. Our results indicate that atmosphere‐ocean coupled processes shape regional changes in SST seasonality differently between warm (MAMJJAS) and cold seasons (ONDJF). During the warm season, the projected warming tendency is mainly due to increased net surface heat flux and weakening of vertical mixing. On the other hand, in the cold season, the projected cooling tendency is driven by strengthened vertical mixing over the North Pacific associated with the northward shift of storm tracks but weakened horizontal advection and mixing due to changes in ocean currents over the North Atlantic. Plain Language Summary: In addition to the increase in annual mean sea surface temperature (SST), the amplitude of SST seasonal cycle is projected to intensify in response to greenhouse warming over many parts of the global ocean due to more warming during local summer than winter. By analyzing large ensemble simulations, we show how different atmospheric and ocean processes influence spatiotemporal differences in SST seasonality changes in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. Our findings indicate that during local summer, the projected warming tendency intensifies with the increased heat input into the ocean and weakening of ocean mixing. Meanwhile, during local winter, the projected cooling tendency intensifies with the strengthening of vertical mixing associated with the enhanced storm track activities in the North Pacific, but the weakening of ocean horizontal advection and mixing attributable to the weakened ocean circulation over the North Atlantic. They together contribute to the amplification of SST seasonality, which could have implications for marine ecosystems, including the plankton phenology. Key Points: Using CESM2 large ensemble simulations, this study explores the robustness of future sea surface temperature (SST) seasonality changes and the associated atmospheric and surface ocean processesIn the warm season, the future SST warming is mainly driven by the reduced upper ocean mixing and the increased net surface heat influx into the oceanIn the cold season, the future SST cooling is attributable to strengthened vertical mixing over the North Pacific but weakened horizontal advection and mixing in the North Atlantic [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of changes in global temperatures and precipitation on climate distribution remains unclear. Taking the annual global average temperatures and precipitation as the origin, this study determined the climate distribution with the distances of temperature and precipitation from their global averages as the X and Y axes. The results showed that during 1980–2019, the global temperature distribution converged toward the mean (convergence), while the precipitation distribution moved away from the mean (divergence). The combined effects of both led to a convergence in the global climate distribution. During 2025–2100, significant climate convergence is observed under two emission scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585). However, the climate convergence and the area of change in climate type remains insignificant only under SSP126, suggesting that the diversity of the global climate pattern can be maintained under a sustainable emission pathway (SSP126), whereas high emission pathways will lead to greater uniformity in global climate. Plain Language Summary: Global average temperatures and precipitation have increased significantly over recent decades. However, the distribution of affected areas remains unclear in comparison to the global mean. Taking annual temperature and precipitation averages as a reference point, this study measured temperature and precipitation anomalies from the global mean on the X and Y axes. The Euclidean distance of each grid cell represents its deviation (anomaly) from the global climate mean. These distances are termed the degree of deviation of temperature, precipitation, and climate from the global mean for each raster. The results reveal a discernible homogenization trend regarding the distribution of global climate. Among three distinct climate scenarios, climate diversity is effectively preserved under the low‐emission model (SSP126), whereas global climate distribution exhibits a substantial convergence toward the annual mean under the high‐emission models (SSP245 and SSP585). Key Points: Against the backdrop of global warming, the climate pattern is shifting toward convergenceTemperature is the primary driver behind climate convergence, while precipitation plays a central role in climate diversityLow‐level emissions are conducive to preserving the diversity of future global climate distribution [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Diagnosing the role of internal variability over recent decades is critically important for both model validation and projections of future warming. Recent research suggests that for 1980–2022 internal variability manifested as Global Cooling and Arctic Warming (i‐GCAW), leading to enhanced Arctic Amplification (AA), and suppressed global warming over this period. Here we show that such an i‐GCAW is rare in CMIP6 large ensembles, but simulations that do produce similar i‐GCAW exhibit a unique and robust internally driven global surface air temperature (SAT) trend pattern. This unique SAT trend pattern features enhanced warming in the Barents and Kara Sea and cooling in the Tropical Eastern Pacific and Southern Ocean. Given that these features are imprinted in the observed record over recent decades, this work suggests that internal variability makes a crucial contribution to the discrepancy between observations and model‐simulated forced SAT trend patterns. Plain Language Summary: When comparing model simulations of Earth's recent warming to real‐world observations, differences may arise from several factors. Two important factors are the model errors in the simulated response to increased greenhouse gases, and natural fluctuations within the climate system that produced discrepancies between observations and models. Thus, quantifying the role of these natural fluctuations is important for the assessment of model‐observation differences. Previous studies have shown that natural climate variability has depressed global warming and enhanced Arctic warming. By compositing the multi‐decadal trend patterns from CMIP6 simulations in which natural variability warms the Arctic but has a global cooling effect, we find that the majority of these model simulations also produce enhanced warming in the Barents and Kara Seas and cooling in the Tropical Eastern Pacific and Southern Ocean due to natural variability. Since these are the exact features imprinted on observed surface temperature changes over 1980–2022, our work suggests that natural variability is an important component of several noteworthy differences between models and observations. Key Points: Internal variability has enhanced Arctic warming but suppressed global warming over 1980–2022This manifestation of internal variability is rare in model simulations but has a robust global surface air temperature (SAT) trend patternThis internal SAT pattern features warming in the Barents and Kara Sea and cooling of the Tropical Eastern Pacific and Southern Ocean [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The role of internal variability in generating an apparent link between autumn Barents‐Kara sea (BKS) ice and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has been intensely debated. In particular, the robustness and causality of the link has been questioned by showing that BKS‐NAO correlations exhibit nonstationarity in both reanalysis and climate model simulations. We show that the lack of ice observations means nonstationarity cannot be confidently assessed using reanalysis prior to 1961. Model simulations are used to corroborate an argument that forced nonstationarity could result from ice edge changes due to global warming. Consequently, the observed change in BKS‐NAO correlations since 1960 might not be purely a result of internal variability and may also reflect that the ice edge has moved. The change could also reflect the availability of more accurate ice observations. We discuss potential implications for analysis based on coupled climate models, which exhibit large ice edge biases. Plain Language Summary: Does the amount of ice in the Barents‐Kara Sea influence European air pressure or are the patterns we see caused by random changes in the weather? In climate models and in estimates of the atmosphere's history these patterns change depending on which years we look at. This has been interpreted as evidence that the patterns are random. However, there are very few measurements of ice in this region before 1961, so we argue that looking at these years is not helpful. Since 1961, where we have more measurements, the winter sea ice edge has been moving Northwards because of global warming. When the ice in a particular region disappears, it changes the expected relationship with the atmosphere because heat can now quickly leave the ocean. We therefore hypothesize that some of the changes seen in the patterns may therefore not be random, but a result of ice edge changes. We also observe that different climate models put the ice edge in different places, and the same hypothesis therefore implies that models might not get potential ice‐air pressure relationships in specific regions correct. Key Points: A lack of observations means that ice‐NAO links cannot be confidently assessed with reanalysis prior to 1961Nonstationarity since 1961 may reflect forced changes to the ice edge, due to the dependence of heatflux anomalies on ice edge variabilityThe magnitude of this potential forced nonstationarity in the real world is currently unclear [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Somerset Levels and Moors, UK is an area of high conservation value, including nationally and internationally protected wetland sites. Duckweed (Lemna) mats in the Somerset Levels and Moors are increasingly common and are an indication of hyper-eutrophication. Duckweed mats can contribute to increased management burdens and decreases in biodiversity. Research suggests duckweed will thrive in temperate regions as the climate warms. This study investigated the impact of climate warming and eutrophication on duckweed growth in the Somerset Levels and Moors using a previously published model to simulate duckweed growth from the years of 2020–2080. Simulated local climate change projections and adjustments in actual nitrogen and phosphorus levels were used to estimate changes in biomass. Using the simulated data, the model predicted an 83% increase in biomass from the 2020's to the 2070's if nutrients do not change. In order to offset the impact of climate change on duckweed biomass, nutrient levels will need to decrease by more than 50% by 2080. Further changes to management practices will likely be necessary to restore healthy ecological function and biodiversity in the area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the need for mechanistic explanations in seed ecology and highlights the limitations of broad-scale correlative studies that ignore mechanisms. The authors specifically focus on seed dormancy and argue that the current understanding of seed dormancy as an adaptive response to climate seasonality is flawed. They propose that fire regime, rather than climate seasonality, is a more plausible mechanism for selecting prolonged seed dormancy. The article also mentions similar issues in other areas of ecology, such as species diversity and trait ecology, and emphasizes the importance of a mechanistic understanding and hypothesis-driven research. [Extracted from the article]

Environmental nonprofit organizations (ENPOs) play a critical role in climate governance. Though ENPOs dedicate significant efforts to advocacy and providing public services, their interaction with public opinion on global warming has not been fully explored. Through multilevel regression analysis on county-level data in the U.S., this article examines the relationship between the presence of ENPOs and public perceptions of global warming, taking into account variations among ENPOs. The findings indicate that: (1) the overall presence of ENPOs is slightly, but not significantly, positively correlated with public perceptions of global warming, with advocacy-oriented ENPOs showing a more robust and statistically significant correlation; (2) there is an inverted-U relationship between the presence of ENPOs and public opinion on global warming, with advocacy-oriented ENPOs reaching tipping points earlier than service-oriented ENPOs; and (3) the partisanship of liberal counties influences this association. This study suggests a potential role for nonprofits in policymaking by interacting with public opinion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is impacting ecosystems worldwide, and the Mediterranean Sea is no exception. Extreme climatic events, such as marine heat waves (MHWs), are increasing in frequency, extent and intensity during the last decades, which has been associated with an increase in mass mortality events for multiple species. Coralligenous assemblages, where the octocoral Paramuricea clavata lives, are strongly affected by MHWs. The Medes Islands Marine Reserve (NW Mediterranean) was considered a climate refugia for P. clavata, as their populations were showing some resilience to these changing conditions. In this study, we assessed the impacts of the MHWs that occurred between 2016 and 2022 in seven shallow populations of the octocoral P. clavata from a Mediterranean Marine Protected Area. The years that the mortality rates increased significantly were associated with the ones with strong MHWs, 2022 being the one with higher mortalities. In 2022, with 50 MHW days, the proportion of total affected colonies was almost 70%, with a proportion of the injured surface of almost 40%, reaching levels never attained in our study site since the monitoring was started. We also found spatial variability between the monitored populations. Whereas few of them showed low levels of mortality, others lost around 75% of their biomass. The significant impacts documented here raise concerns about the future of shallow P. clavata populations across the Mediterranean, suggesting that the resilience of this species may not be maintained to sustain these populations face the ongoing warming trends. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Environmental stresses are increasingly recognized as significant risk factors for adverse health outcomes. In particular, various forms of pollution and climate change are playing a growing role in promoting noncommunicable diseases, especially cardiovascular disease. Given recent trends, global warming and air pollution are now associated with substantial cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. As a vicious cycle, global warming increases the occurrence, size, and severity of wildfires, which are significant sources of airborne particulate matter. Exposure to wildfire smoke is associated with cardiovascular disease, and these effects are underpinned by mechanisms that include oxidative stress, inflammation, impaired cardiac function, and proatherosclerotic effects in the circulation. In the first part of a 2-part series on pollution and cardiovascular disease, this review provides an overview of the impact of global warming and air pollution, and because of recent events and emerging trends specific attention is paid to air pollution caused by wildfires. [Display omitted] • Global warming and air pollution are associated with increased cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. • Global warming is also increasing the occurrence of wildfires, which further drives air pollution and promotes cardiovascular disease through mechanisms that involve oxidative stress, inflammation, atherogenic effects, and impaired cardiac function. • These issues underscore the urgent need to address global warming and air pollution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Winter extreme cold events (ECEs) have profound impacts on human health, transportation, energy consumption and the economy, particularly associated with high‐humidity conditions. Recent research has indicated a growing interest in extreme temperature events that account for the presence of water vapour. However, the characteristics of humidity‐related ECEs (HECEs) remain unclear. Given the rise in atmospheric moisture due to global warming, understanding the influence of water vapour on HECEs becomes crucial. This study examined variations in HECEs identified using the wet‐bulb globe temperature (WBGT) in China during 1959–2020 and quantified the impacts of water vapour. The results revealed a decrease in the intensity and frequency of HECEs in China during this period, except for in northern China, where the intensity increased, which contrasts with the trends in traditional ECEs. Furthermore, strong HECEs were found to exhibit greater frequency, duration and intensity in northern China than weak HECEs. Additionally, the specific humidity for all categories of HECEs in China exhibited an upward trend, with a more rapid increase for strong HECEs. The findings indicated that the intensity of HECEs is positively correlated with the increase in water vapour. Defining a water vapour amplification factor revealed amplified intensity and duration at most grid points, particularly across northern China. Therefore, while winter warming reduces traditional ECEs, HECEs persist and even intensify as humidity increases, confirming significant amplification by water vapour. Our results emphasized the importance of increasing water vapour, driven by global warming, which may increase the risk of HECEs in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to high environmental temperatures and climate change, heat stress is a severe concern for poultry health and production, increasing the propensity for food insecurity. With climate change causing higher temperatures and erratic weather patterns in recent years, poultry are increasingly vulnerable to this environmental stressor. To mitigate heat stress, nutritional, genetic, and managerial strategies have been implemented with some success. However, these strategies did not adequately and sustainably reduce the heat stress. Therefore, it is crucial to take proactive measures to mitigate the effects of heat stress on poultry, ensuring optimal production and promoting poultry well-being. Embryonic thermal manipulation (TM) involves manipulating the embryonic environment's temperature to enhance broilers' thermotolerance and growth performance. One of the most significant benefits of this approach is its cost-effectiveness and saving time associated with traditional management practices. Given its numerous advantages, embryonic TM is a promising strategy for enhancing broiler production and profitability in the poultry industry. TM increases the standard incubation temperature in the mid or late embryonic stage to induce epigenetic thermal adaption and embryonic metabolism. Therefore, this review aims to summarize the available literature and scientific evidence of the beneficial effect of pre-hatch thermal manipulation on broiler health and performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under a warming climate, occurrences of wildfires have been increasingly more frequent in boreal and arctic forests during the last few decades. Wildfires can cause radical changes in the forest ecosystems and permafrost environment, such as irreversible degradation of permafrost, successions of boreal forests, rapid and massive losses of soil carbon stock, and increased periglacial geohazards. Since 2016, we have gradually and more systematically established a network for studying soil nutrients and monitoring the hydrothermal state of the active layer and near-surface permafrost in the northern Da Xing'anling (Hinggan) Mountains in Northeast China. The dataset of soil moisture content (0–9.4 m in depth), soil organic carbon (0–3.6 m), total nitrogen (0–3.6 m), and total phosphorus and potassium (0–3.6 m) have been obtained by field sampling and ensuing laboratory tests. Long-term datasets (2017–2022) of ground temperatures (0–20 m) and active layer thickness have been observed by thermistor cables permanently installed in boreholes. The present data can be used to simulate changes in permafrost features under a changing climate and wildfire disturbances and to explore the changing interactive mechanisms of the fire-permafrost-carbon system in the hemiboreal forest. Furthermore, can provide baseline data for studies and action plans to support the carbon neutralization initiative and assessment of ecological safety and management of the permafrost environment. This dataset can be easily accessed from the National Tibetan Plateau/Third Pole Environment Data Center (https://doi.org/10.11888/Cryos.tpdc.300933 , Li and Jin, 2024). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Building public consensus about the threat of climate change is critical for enacting meaningful action to address it. To understand how Americans are changing their beliefs about climate change, research typically relies on cross-sectional survey responses. Data that is collected from the same individuals over time– panel data– provides clearer evidence about whether people’s beliefs are shifting. In this article, we investigate changes in climate beliefs among the American public using panel data from 2,135 survey respondents, analyzing opinion changes through the “Global Warming’s Six Americas” framework– an audience segmentation tool that identifies the people who are the most worried about global warming (the Alarmed) to the least worried (the Dismissive). Our findings indicate that many Americans are changing their minds about climate change and becoming more worried over time, and that these shifts correlate with changes in support for climate policy and behavioral engagement. However, these trends vary within key segments of the population and indicate that while climate communication may be shifting the beliefs of many, strategies for reaching particular audiences may need to be adapted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We report lignitic fossil rich-beds from the Bathonian Castelbouc sauropod tracksite (Castelbouc Cave N°4, Causses Basin, southern France). Showing the co-occurrence of amber with plant, vertebrate and invertebrate remains, they are a precious tool to reconstruct Middle Jurassic dinosaur ecosystems. A multiproxy approach combining sedimentology, petrology, mineralogy and palaeontology led to determine that these fossil rich-beds were deposited in a range of insular coastal palaeoenvironments. They include protected backshore areas such as freshwater/brackish ponds and brackish bay/lagoon showing co-occurrence of terrestrial and marine inputs. The backshore environments were particularly rich in ostracods (Darwinula sp., Fabanella bathonica) and gyrogonites of charophytes (Porochara douzensis). The abundance of conifer remains including leafy axes (Brachyphyllum), cones (cf. Classostrobus), wood (Brachyoxylon) and pollen grains (Classopollis) shows that ponds and bay/lagoon were bordered by conifer-dominated forests in which Cheirolepidiaceae were the main component. Such a rich and relatively diverse flora was probably an attractive source of food for megaherbivorous dinosaurs. Vertebrate microremains mostly consist of fish scales (Ginglymodi indet.) and crocodylomorph teeth (Atoposauridae indet.), two groups that are common components of Middle Jurassic paralic faunas. The palaeobotanical assemblage suggests a warm subtropical climate probably tropophilous with marked alternation between a wet and a dry season. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecological similarity plays an important role in biotic interactions. Increased body size similarity of competing species, for example, increases the strength of their biotic interactions. Body sizes of many exothermic species are forecast to be altered under global warming, mediating shifts in existing trophic interactions among species, in particular for species with different thermal niches.Temperate rocky reefs along the southeast coast of Australia are located in a climate warming hotspot and now house a mixture of temperate native fish species and poleward range‐extending tropical fishes (vagrants), creating novel species assemblages. Here, we studied the relationship between body size similarity and trophic overlap between individual temperate native and tropical vagrant fishes.Dietary niche overlap between vagrant and native fish species increased as their body sizes converged, based on both stomach content composition (short‐term diet), stable isotope analyses (integrated long‐term diet) and similarity in consumed prey sizes.We conclude that the warming‐induced faster growth rates of tropical range‐extending fish species at their cool water ranges will continue to converge their body size towards and strengthen their degree of trophic interactions and dietary overlap with co‐occurring native temperate species under increasing ocean warming. The strengthening of these novel competitive interactions is likely to drive changes to temperate food web structures and reshuffle existing species community structures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The last deglaciation is considered a key period for exploring the underlying dynamics of temperature changes because it was characterized by multiple millennial-scale abrupt climatic events. However, the limited number of quantitative temperature records in Northeast (NE) China covering the last deglaciation hampers a complete understanding of the mechanisms and processes behind the temperature changes that occurred in that region. Here, we present a quantitative reconstruction of summer temperature over the last deglaciation based on bacterial branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs) analyzed from the sediment sequence of Lake Kielguo, a small volcanic lake in NE China. The results show that summer temperature was lowest during the interval ca. 20–18.2 calibrated (cal.) k.y. B.P. with a value of ∼11.1 °C and increased by ∼1.9 °C during Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1) and by ∼2.7 °C during the transition to the Bølling-Allerød (B-A). The summer temperatures during the B-A warm interval and Younger Dryas cold interval were ∼14.1 °C and ∼12.0 °C, respectively. The summer temperature record from the Lake Kielguo sediment sequence indicates that summer warming dominated the climate change state during HS1 in East Asia, which is different from the cooling pattern controlled by winter temperatures in the North Atlantic and Greenland realms. This distinction can be explained by weakened winter cooling signals triggered by the collapse of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation when these signals propagated to East Asia, and increased summer temperature warming controlled by orbital and greenhouse gases during HS1 in East Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The consensus on climate warming is well‐established, and extreme values inherently encapsulate more information than averages. Against the backdrop of frequent extreme climate events, studying extreme values holds profound significance. This study aims to reveal the characteristics of extreme climate events and their role in triggering extreme hydrological events in the typical North China basin, that is, the Luanhe River Basin. Trends of 25 extreme climate indices during 1960–2018 are analysed using the Sen's slope and MK significance test to study the changing characteristics of extreme climate. Characteristics of extreme flood and dry events are examined, encompassing trend analyses at different time scales (seasonal, interannual, decadal) and concentration analysis. Finally, and most significantly, correlation analysis is conducted on extreme climate indices and features of extreme hydrological events, followed by principal component analysis of extreme climate indices, to precisely quantify the impact of extreme climate on the occurrence of extreme hydrological events. The results indicate a warming trend in extreme temperature indices, with a more significant rise in minimum temperatures compared to maximum temperatures. There is a significant decrease in precipitation, but precipitation at higher magnitudes is less affected by the overall reduction in total precipitation. Extreme dry events have markedly increased, particularly concentrated in winter with delayed occurrences, primarily induced by extreme temperature events, that is, warming effects. Conversely, extreme flood events have significantly decreased, mainly concentrated in summer and early autumn, predominantly caused by extreme precipitation and extreme high‐temperature events. The climate and hydrological conditions in the study area have become more extreme and complex. Severe river droughts may occur more frequently in winter, while extreme flooding may happen in summer. Therefore, it is necessary to pay more attention to these developments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Basic ecological theory suggests that a tradeoff between competitiveness and stress tolerance dictates species range limits at regional extents. However, empirical support for this key theory remains deficient because the necessary spatial and temporal coverage and scalability of field observations has rarely been achieved. We harnessed an extensive dendroecological network (> 22 000 tree‐ring samples from 816 forest inventory plots) to disentangle competition‐limited from climate‐limited growth in both overstory and understory trees. Growth synchrony among trees thereby served as an integral metric of climate sensitivity, an approach that we justify in supplementary analyses of growth responses to temperature, precipitation, and the standardized precipitation‐evapotranspiration index. Sampling plots were arranged along elevational climate and vegetation gradients throughout the Carpathian Mountains, ranging from mixed‐species lowland forests to coniferous forests at high elevations. With mixed‐effect modelling, we also identified non‐climatic factors (stand characteristics, species diversity, and disturbance history) that modulate spatial patterns in the growth rate and synchrony of European beech Fagus sylvatica and Norway spruce Picea abies. Beech exhibited reduced growth and increased climate sensitivity towards higher elevations but performed better when species diversity was higher. The growth of spruce increased towards its lower range boundary, but understory cohorts grew poorly under interspecific competition. Overall, climate sensitivity was lower in more productive stands with benign climatic conditions and in recently disturbed sites with reduced stand density. These contrasting performances at mid‐elevations where the two species overlap (900–1300 m a.s.l.) reflect their evolutionary history, which enables them to be competitive (beech) or cold‐stress tolerant (spruce). This history will affect interactions between the two species under climate warming and shape macroecological patterns in the Carpathian ecoregion and likely other parts of Europe. Our findings point to a growing advantage of competitively stronger species in montane and subalpine vegetation zones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Each winter, purpose‐built outdoor skating rinks are constructed in backyards and community parks across much of Canada and the northern United States. Past research projects that warmer winters will make it increasingly difficult to build outdoor rinks without artificial refrigeration. Here we build upon previous studies by mapping areas of North America where present average January temperatures are generally suitable each year for building outdoor rinks, and how this area will change by the 2050s and 2080s. Using projections from downscaled general circulation models, we show how under current emissions pathways, average January temperatures will become too mild by the 2050s to build outdoor rinks across much of eastern North America in most winters, and this area will expand by the 2080s to include most of the western United States. Under high emissions scenarios (RCP 8.5), unsuitably mild January temperatures expand to include densely populated areas of Canada's Prairie provinces by the 2080s. In short, many North Americans who build outdoor rinks every winter will, by mid‐century, be living in areas where temperatures are only cold enough to do so occasionally, creating a range of social, cultural, and health implications for people living in those regions. Key messages: By the 2050s, average January temperatures across much of eastern North America will be too mild to construct and maintain outdoor skating rinks in most winters.Under high emissions scenarios, by the 2080s January temperatures will become too mild for annual construction of outdoor skating rinks in almost all of the lower 48 US states and much of the Canadian prairies.Outdoor skating provides many significant social, cultural, and health benefits that will be lost as purpose‐built rinks become increasingly rare. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In many Puget Sound streams, summer low flows have declined in recent decades, and are projected to decline further. Concerns that humans may be responsible have focused on two main causes: anthropogenic climate warming and aspects of development, including urbanization and the abstraction of groundwater. Difficulty in distinguishing their relative impacts has hindered the conception and design of strategies intended to restore and enhance future low flows. We analyzed trends in low flows over recent decades, separating the effects of these factors in two steps. First, low flow variation was assessed in 23 basins that are minimally disturbed by development. Low flows varied over time, and with elevation, in complex ways, consistent with the loss of snowpack at elevations >~800 m. Second, low flow trends in developed lowland basins were compared with trends in a minimally developed lowland reference basin. Flows in developed basins deviated from a purely climate‐driven pattern in unique ways, reflecting unique histories of development. In 21 lowland basins, there was no consistent decline in low flows with increasing impervious land cover, at least between 2001 and 2019. Effects on low flows of private wells alone could be assessed in only one basin, but no impact was evident. An assessment of projected relative impacts on low flows of urbanization, rural development, and anthropogenic warming suggested that the latter will be the greatest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Unexpected and large spring precipitation events in the Colorado River Basin (CRB) that significantly alleviated an otherwise severe water shortage have been observed for over a century, such as the "Miracle May" of 2015. Although these events are often termed as "drought‐busting" or "miracle events" by water managers and the media, they have not been extensively researched or characterized. In this collaborative study with water managers across the CRB, we propose a definition for these hard‐to‐predict, ultra‐high precipitation events occurring during the late‐snow or snowmelt season. This characterization provides a framework for quantifying the frequency and intensity of extreme dry‐to‐wet springtime transitions. Despite limitations of climate model simulations due to uncertainties and the inhomogeneous qualities, our findings suggest that such transitions may become less frequent and less intense in a warming climate. In view of the potentially wetter but less‐snowy climate in the basin, the need for future research to more quantitatively assess these "miracle events" is emphasized. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increasing ocean temperature will speed up physiological rates of ectotherms. In fish, this is suggested to cause earlier spawning due to faster oocyte growth rates. Over time, this could cause spawning time to become decoupled from the timing of offspring food resources, a phenomenon referred to as trophic asynchrony. We used biological data, including body length, age, and gonad developmental stages collected from >125,000 individual Northeast Arctic cod (Gadus morhua) sampled between 59 and 73° N in 1980–2019. Combined with experimental data on oocyte growth rates, our analyses show that cod spawned progressively earlier by about a week per decade, partly due to ocean warming. It also appears that spawning time varied by more than 40 days, depending on year and spawning location. The significant plasticity in spawning time seems to be fine‐tuned to the local phytoplankton spring bloom phenology. This ability to partly overcome thermal drivers and thus modulate spawning time could allow individuals to maximize fitness by closely tracking local environmental conditions important for offspring survival. Our finding highlights a new dimension for trophic match–mismatch and should be an important consideration in models used to predict phenology dynamics in a warmer climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High temperature warning indicators play a pivotal role in meteorological departments, serving as crucial criteria for issuing warnings that guide both social production and daily life. Despite their importance, limited studies have explored the relationship between different global warming levels and changes in high temperature warning indicators. In this study, we analyze data from 2,419 meteorological stations over China and utilize the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models to examine historical changes in high temperature warning indicators used by the China Meteorological Administration. We evaluate model performance and estimate future changes in these indicators using an annual cycle bias correction method. The results indicate that since 1961, the number of high temperature days (TX35d and TX40d) and length of season (TX40d and TX40l) with daily maximum temperature reaching or exceeding 35°C and 40°C have increased over China. The intensity of high temperatures (TXx) has strengthened and the geographical extent affected by high temperatures has expanded. In 2022, the occurrence of 40°C high temperatures surges, with Eastern China experiencing a two-day increase in TX40d and an extended seasonal length in TX40l by over five days. While CMIP6 models have underestimated the high temperature indictors associated with 35°C during historical periods, notable difference is not observed between the models and observations for TX40d and TX40l, given their rare occurrence. However, future projections, after bias correction, indicate that the increasing trends for 35°C and 40°C high temperature days and length of season become more pronounced than the raw projection, suggesting a more severe increase than that anticipated originally. As global warming intensifies, the high temperature days and length of season are projected to increase non-linearly, while the intensity of high temperatures is expected to increase linearly. For every 1°C increase in global temperature, the intensity is projected to rise by approximately 1.4°C. The impact of high temperatures is expanding, with the major hotspot for China located in the eastern and northwestern regions. Under 5°C global warming, certain regions in China may experience prolonged extreme high temperatures. For instance, 40°C high temperature days in areas like North China and the Yangtze River Basin could increase by about 32 d, and the length of season could extend by approximately 100 d. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The northern Tibetan Plateau is a climatically sensitive zone influenced by monsoon and westerly winds. In summer, water vapor transport can reach Qinghai Lake and the eastern section of the Qilian Mountains; in winter, westerly winds mainly control the climate. This article compares the wet/dry changes in the region during the mid-Holocene (MH) warm period, the medieval climate anomaly (MCA), the current warm period (CWP), and the future warm period from the perspective of paleoclimate. We found that the MH warm period was mainly affected by the orbit-controlled East Asian summer monsoon, and the region showed warm and humid climate characteristics. The MCA was mainly controlled by solar radiation, and there was a warm and dry phenomenon. The CWP and the future warm period are mainly controlled by the rise in temperature caused by the increase in greenhouse gases, and the climate is becoming more arid. The wet/dry patterns in the CWP and the future warm period in the next century on the northern Tibetan Plateau are similar to those in the MCA. Continued warming will lead to the expansion of the westerly belt and a gradually humid climate. The future wet/dry changes will be more similar to the MH warm period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has profound impacts on ecosystems, and one critical aspect is its effect on seed germination, a crucial stage in plant life cycles. Various studies have explored the responses of plant species to rising temperatures, and there is now a pressing need to integrate this wealth of information into a coherent framework. The aim of this study was to survey literature about seed traits and thence to evaluate germination responses to climate change and to propose functional groups for germination. Increased temperature affects seed traits, particularly germinability. Many species show increased germination percentages in warmer temperatures, although the extent varies among species and temperature ranges. Some maintain a consistent percentage, whereas others reduce it to retain seeds in the seed bank. Temperature changes also affect the timing and season of germination, with some species accelerating germination, others delaying it, thereby influencing competition and exposure to adverse conditions. Shifts in temperature can alter seed requirements, affecting responses to temperature, humidity, light, chemical stimuli, and dormancy. Modifications in germination have profound effects on seed bank and seedling bank dynamics, affecting plant populations and ecological community resilience. Changes in germination can disrupt competitive dynamics, favoring some over others, altering community composition, and potentially impairing ecosystem functionality. Germination niche, germination potential, and germination phenology are fundamental concepts in the evaluation of climate change's implications for germination. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our research represents the first extensive study of the breeding behaviour and related environmental triggers of reproduction in the African giant pouch rat (Cricetomys gambianus Waterhouse, 1840) in and around the equator throughout a whole year. We measured the gross morphology and detailed histology of both female and male rats, along with plasma steroid hormone levels. Contrary to other tropical-dwelling small mammals, the African giant pouch rat is a seasonal breeder; however, rainfall is not to be the primary cue of reproduction. Our study suggests that ambient temperature and photoperiod are the primary environmental cues of reproduction, with breeding occurring during the cooler months of the year, namely in the dry season. During the wet and hot season, which succeeds the dry season, there is an increase in the availability of quality food, which results in nursing mothers and weaned pups achieving a positive energy balance and increased body condition. This, in turn, increases pregnancy success and offspring survival. Climate change, particularly global warming, could harm the reproduction of African giant pouched rats as rising temperatures in and around the equator, including Tanzania, may impact their circannual reproductive cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding relationships among warming climate, increased drought severity, and the genetic architecture of hybrid drought resilience is necessary for forest conservation and management. We calculated three drought-related tree-ring-growth indices (dendrophenotypes) using tree-ring data from hybrid Pinus strobiformis–Pinus flexilis study trees at nine sites across Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, and Texas. Along with hybrid index (percentage of P. strobiformis ancestry inherited by a single tree) and climate variables, we used dendrophenotypes to (Q1) examine relationships among climate and hybrid index, (Q2) examine relationships between dendrophenotypes and hybrid index, and (Q3) conduct a genotype–phenotype analysis. We observed a significant correlation between hybrid index and dendrophenotypes resulting from high-temperature drought in addition to a significant correlation between those dendrophenotypes and our dataset of single-nucleotide polymorphisms. We conclude that P. strobiformis–P. flexilis trees exhibiting higher hybrid indices are more resilient to high-temperature drought events and encourage future research that identifies a genetic linkage between relevant loci and their conferred physiological benefits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We describe a method for quantifying the contribution of climate change to local monthly, seasonal, and annual mean temperatures for locations where long observational temperature records are available. The method is based on estimating the change in the monthly mean temperature distribution due to climate change using CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) model data. As a case study, we apply the method to the record‐warm September 2023 in Helsinki, and then briefly examine all record‐warm months of the 21st century. Our results suggest that climate change made the record‐warm September in Helsinki 9.4 times more likely and 1.4°C warmer. Thus, the new monthly mean record in September 2023 would probably not have been set without the observed global warming. The presented and provided tool allows operational meteorologists and climatologists to monitor and report the impact of climate change on local temperatures in near real time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observations show that mesospheric clouds (MCs) have been increasing in recent decades, presumably due to increased mesospheric water vapor which is mainly caused by greater methane (CH4) oxidation in the middle atmosphere. Past warm climates such as those of the early Cretaceous and Paleogene periods are thought to have had higher CH4 concentrations than present day, and future CH4 concentrations will also likely continue to rise. Here, idealized atmosphere chemistry‐climate model experiments forced with strong polar‐amplified sea‐surface temperatures and elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) and CH4 concentrations predict a substantial spreading of MCs to middle and low latitudes, well beyond regions where they are currently found. Sensitivity tests show that increased water vapor from CH4 oxidation and cooling from increased CO2 and CH4 concentrations create favorable conditions for cloud formation, producing MC fractions of 0.02 in the low latitudes and 0.1 in the mid‐latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere when CH4 concentration is 16× higher than pre‐industrial. Further increases in CH4 result in a monotonic increase in low‐ and mid‐latitude MCs. A uniform surface ocean warming, changes in polar amplification, or the solar constant do not significantly affect our results. While the appearance of these clouds is interesting, their ice and liquid water content is not sufficient to cause a significant radiative effect. On the other hand, dehydration of the mesosphere due to these low‐ and mid‐latitude MCs could potentially lead to a reduction in atomic hydrogen, thereby affecting mesospheric ozone concentration, although further study is required to confirm this. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Garnacha variety is one of the most important red Mediterranean grape cultivars grown in the world. However, it may not reach optimum chromatic characteristics in warm climates such as Andalusia (Southern Spain). This study analyses the impact of the application of microwaves over the crushed grapes (MW) at laboratory scale over two vintages on the characteristics of Garnacha wines elaborated from grapes cultivated in a warm climate as an additional procedure to traditional red winemaking (CT) to obtain highly coloured wines. Oenological and colour parameters were measured to determine the effects of this treatment on wines throughout the winemaking process. Overall, wines made by MW had a higher phenolic content and colour intensity. The analysis of the detailed composition of the wine showed that the treatment with microwaves before the alcoholic fermentation leads to important differences in its colour properties. Thus, the treatment with microwaves induced easily perceptible changes in CIELab coordinates (lower L* and higher a* and C*ab values than CT). Additionally, it also showed to be significantly effective to increase the extraction of phenolic compounds from grape solids into grape juice, both globally (total polyphenol index and Folin–Ciocalteu index), and particularly regarding flavanols and flavonols content. Most of the above-mentioned significant differences remained with ageing. The reported results are promising and the treatment with microwaves in the optimized conditions seems a feasible auxiliary alternative in warm climates, where wines produced from some red grape cultivars often show suboptimal colour characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forests provide irreplaceable ecosystem services for human society and prevent environmental degradation but climate change has substantially undermined these fundamental functions. It is therefore important to examine the responses and adaptation of different tree species to climate warming. Here, we investigated how climate warming has affected tree growth patterns and growth-climate responses of a conifer (Pinus tabuliformis) and two broad-leaved species (Populus davidiana and Betula platyphylla) in a temperate semi-arid region in the northern China. Our results showed that P. tabuliformis had a similar regional growth pattern and two broad-leaved species shared an interspecific growth similarity at the same site. Broad-leaved trees had a higher recovery and resilience to drought than the conifer while conifers were more resistant to drought compared to broad-leaved trees, indicating a faster drought-response of broad-leaved species than that of conifers. The warming climate has hindered the tree growth by exacerbating water-deficit, and in particular, water availability has become the limiting factor for the growth of pines in the area. Trees coped with the water-deficit by taking advantage of non-growing season water to compensate the water source for tree growth. The study not only revealed the differences of growth-climate responses between species but also highlighted the necessity to consider species-specific adaptation to climate warming and diversify forest management strategies. Highlights: The conifers and broad-leaved trees had divergent growth patterns and growth-climate response in temperate semi-arid China. Trees coped with the warming-drying climate by taking advantage of non-growing season water. The warming climate had a discriminatory effect on conifers and broad-leaved trees in temperate semi-arid regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate changes have dramatically affected forest succession. However, how trees at different successional stages respond to climate warming is unclear in the subtropics. Here, we compared the radial growth (RW) and xylem features of the early-successional stage Castanea mollissima and late-successional stage Quercus fabri in subtropical forests and assessed their response to climate changes. All parameters, including RW, number of vessels (VN), vessel density (VD), mean (MVA) and total (TVA) vessel area, percentage of conductive area within xylem (RCTA), theoretical (Kh) and xylem-specific (Ks) hydraulic conductivity, except for MVA of C. mollissima were significantly higher than those of Q. fabri. During the drought period, a notable adverse correlation between two cluster parameters of Q. fabri, associated with hydraulic safety and efficiency, suggested a pronounced hydraulic trade-off in Q. fabri under drought conditions. Castanea mollissima was more sensitive to climate and more prone to hydraulic failure than Q. fabri. Temperatures and moisture conditions positively and negatively affected the hydraulic efficiency-related parameters of C. mollissima. Moisture conditions in the previous summer and winter were significantly negatively and positively related to the radial growth of both species. The impact of generalized warming was not evident due to variations in hydraulic strategies and species characteristics, trade-offs between non-growing and growing season climates, and specific competition. If climate warming continues, C. mollissima growth will probably significantly decline due to the increasing risk of hydraulic failure. Warming may accelerate species replacement and forest succession in the study area by changing their lifespans and competitive relationships. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The changing frequency of flooding in global watersheds, driven by various human and natural factors like land use/cover changes and global warming, necessitates innovative approaches in flood frequency analysis and risk assessment. Nonetheless, the reliability of nonstationary frequency analysis models remains a concern given challenges in accurately measuring the uncertainty introduced by these methods and the impact on design flood values. In this study, deviation-based differential sensitivity indices, including single-parameter (SDDSI) and entire-parameter (EDDSI) measures were developed to assess the influence of parameter uncertainty in nonstationary models using Bayesian statistics and "equivalent reliability" nonstationary design. The Weihe River, the largest tributary of the Yellow River which is experiencing both climate change and heavy impact of human activities, is chosen to be the study area to investigate the impact of precipitation change and land use change on nonstationary flood frequency. Results show that in the One-At-A-Time (OAT) sensitivity analysis under a small uncertainty scenario (SUS) for parameter inputs, the shape parameter stands out as the most influential factor (SDDSI_SUS = 0.347) affecting the 100-year design flood in the Stationary Generalized Extreme Value (SGEV) model. For the Non-Stationary GEV (NGEV) models, the influence of this parameter is less pronounced, with SDDSI_SUS values of 0.095 and 0.093 for the SSP126 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. Instead, attention turns to the regression coefficient of the grassland area, associated with the GEV scale parameter. In global sensitivity analysis under the posterior uncertainty scenario (PUS) for parameter inputs, the EDDSI_PUS values for SGEV, NGEV_SSP126, and NGEV_SSP585 models were 0.52, 1.41, and 1.30, respectively, inferring heightened sensitivity of NGEV models to perturbations from entire parameters. It is anticipated that incorporating additional evidence, such as historical flood data, is essential for accurate nonstationary hydrological design to mitigating the influence of parameter uncertainty. The sensitivity indices in this study provide significant insights for assessing the robustness of nonstationary hydrological design in flood risk management and applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As climate change impacts increase, communicators must engage as many audiences as possible in climate action. One potentially underrated audience is video gamers. Two-thirds of Americans play video games, and video games are a potentially effective climate change communication tool. However, little research has examined whether video gamers have unique value as a target audience for climate communication, and if they do, what might be effective ways to reach them. To address this need, we use two surveys including self-identified video game players in the United States to measure their current engagement with climate change, including through video gaming. In Study 1, a nationally representative survey in the United States (N = 1,006), we found that being a video gamer was slightly positively associated with intentions to take collective action on global warming. In Study 2, restricted to gamers in the United States (N = 2,034), we found that having more friends and family who played video games, and/or being exposed to global warming content in gaming, were also positively associated with collective action intentions. These findings were consistent even after controlling for potential confounding variables such as age, political party, and global warming attitudes. Results suggest that video gamers are a worthwhile potential audience for future climate change communication, combatting the stereotype of video gamers as disengaged or antisocial, at least in the context of climate change. Our study also identifies several potential avenues for future communication with video gamers, particularly outreach to and engagement with gaming communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study focuses on the investigation of the electromagnetic properties of multiphase inorganic materials (i.e., soils) in changing subsurface environmental conditions that are induced by climate warming. Subsurface warming in cold regions exacerbates the spatial and temporal evolution of frozen soil properties; therefore, an accurate characterization of the unfrozen water and ice content of frozen soils under different thermal conditions has become a pressing need. Several studies focused on the effect of the initial hydraulic properties on the electromagnetic properties of soils. However, detailed systematic studies on the influence of the combined effects of temperature, initial degree of saturation, applied frequency fields, and experiment scales are limited. This study aims to characterize the dielectric and electrical behavior of ice-bearing inorganic soils under the coupled effects of thermal, hydraulic, and electromagnetic conditions. A series of laboratory experiments were performed on soil samples that had different initial degrees of saturation and dry density values by electromagnetic impedance spectroscopy (EIS) and time domain reflectometry (TDR) between −10°C and 5°C. The results from the experiments revealed that the dielectric constant of the inorganic soils decreased with increasing frequency, decreasing initial volumetric water content (VWC), and temperature. The electrical resistivity values decreased with increasing frequency values, initial water content, and temperatures. In addition, the unfrozen water contents at different temperatures were calculated using a modified power law that accounts for the temperature-dependent dielectric permittivity of water and was compared with the TDR measurements. The outcomes of this study could help elucidate the intricate mechanisms of the particle–water–ice interface and their influence on the behavior of frozen soils that are needed for sustainable built and natural environments in cold regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming is causing unprecedented changes to permafrost regions with amplified effects in the Arctic through a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification. This intensified climate warming thaws both the discontinuous and continuous permafrost resulting in changes in the mechanical properties of the soils found in these regions. Since permafrost regions constitute nearly 24% of the Northern Hemisphere, understanding the strength of soils in thawed conditions is essential to analyze the stability of existing structures, and to design safer and more economical infrastructure in these regions. Specifically, thawing of the permafrost is causing considerable reductions in its strength of soils, which may lead to massive landslides, foundation failures, and so forth. Since frozen soil is a multiphase structure that consists of soil particles, unfrozen water, ice, and air, each constituent will influence the mechanical properties. This paper reviews the current state of knowledge of the impact of temperature, volumetric ice content, unfrozen water content, and frozen density on the compressive strength, peak shear strength, residual shear strength, undrained shear strength, and tensile strength of soils. The undrained shear strength of soil is said to have a linear correlation with temperature. In addition, the undrained cohesion of soil was found to depend on the temperature, whereas the undrained friction angle of soil was significantly influenced by volumetric ice content. An increase in the volumetric ice content up to 80% to 90% will cause a reduction in the peak and residual deviatoric stresses. In addition, an increase in volumetric ice content resulted in an increase in the compressive strength of the soil. The tensile and compressive strengths were found to be functions of the unfrozen water content. Global warming is causing the temperature of the permafrost, which is permanently frozen ground, to rise. This paper provides valuable insights into the impact of the changes in this ambient temperature on the strength of frozen soils in permafrost regions for a wide range of applications. Such insights are crucial for the design of resilient and stable infrastructure, such as foundations, embankments, and retaining walls, in which consideration of the reduced strength of thawed soils due to climate change will be necessary. In addition, the knowledge will allow for better management of vulnerable areas prone to landslides and erosion caused by the weakened soil strength permitting the implementation of mitigation measures before lives are lost and costly economic damages are incurred. Finally, this information will aid in early warning systems, emergency planning, and decision making to minimize the impact of hazards on human settlements and infrastructure. In this paper, a review of the current state of knowledge regarding the strength of frozen soils and the associated fluctuations in these strengths because of a rise in temperature are presented. Guidelines on the best practices for sample preparation and testing along with correlations to estimate various strength parameters are also provided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The past decade has been marked by a series of global crises, presenting an opportunity to reevaluate the relationship between science and politics. The biological sciences are instrumental in understanding natural phenomena and informing policy decisions. However, scholars argue that current scientific expertise often fails to account for entire populations and long-term impacts, hindering efforts to address issues such as biodiversity loss, global warming, and pandemics. This article explores the structural challenges of integrating an evolutionary perspective, historically opposed to functional determinants of health and disease, into current biological science practices. Using data on Swiss biology professors from 1957, 1980, and 2000, we examine the structural power dynamics that have led to the division between these competing epistemologies, and how this division has influenced resource allocation and career trajectories. Our analysis suggests that this cleavage presents a significant obstacle to achieving fruitful reconciliations, and that increased academicization and internationalization may benefit functional biologists at the expense of evolutionary biologists. While evolutionary biologists have gained symbolic recognition in recent years, this has not translated into valuable expertise in the political domain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nowadays, with the rapid expansion of cloud computing technology in processing Internet of Things (IoT) workloads, the demand for data centers has significantly increased, leading to a surge in CO2 emissions, power consumption, and global warming. As a result, extensive research and initiatives have been undertaken to tackle this problem. Two specific approaches focus on enhancing workload scheduling, a complex problem known as NP-Hard, and integrating scheduling into scientific workflows. In this investigation, we present a multi-objective Crow Search Algorithm (CSA) for optimizing both makespan and costs in scientific cloud workflows (CSAMOMC). We conduct a comparative analysis between our approach and the well-known HEFT and TC3pop algorithms, which are commonly used for reducing makespan and optimizing costs. Our findings demonstrate that CSAMOMC is capable of achieving an average makespan reduction of 4.42% and a cost reduction of 4.77% when compared to the aforementioned algorithms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A conceptual framework is proposed for understanding the relationship between temperature and biological N 2 fixation (BNF) across levels of biological organization from enzymes to ecosystems on land and in the ocean. Global compilations of measured N 2 fixation rates reveal a temperature dependence that is broadly similar in marine and terrestrial systems, including a common thermal optimum at ~25°C, suggesting an overarching enzymatic constraint. Rate–temperature relationships also reveal features unique to marine and terrestrial domains, including greater heat tolerance of terrestrial BNF, suggesting the presence of, and adaptation to, distinct thermal and ecological niches. Climate warming is projected to reduce N 2 fixation in the tropics while increasing it in higher latitudes in terrestrial and marine ecosystems, a spatial shift that would impact productivity and N cycling, unless modulated by other environmental factors and physiological adaptations. Biological N 2 fixation sustains the global inventory of nitrogenous nutrients essential for the productivity of terrestrial and marine ecosystems. Like most metabolic processes, rates of biological N 2 fixation vary strongly with temperature, making it sensitive to climate change, but a global projection across land and ocean is lacking. Here we use compilations of field and laboratory measurements to reveal a relationship between N 2 fixation rates and temperature that is similar in both domains despite large taxonomic and environmental differences. Rates of N 2 fixation increase gradually to a thermal optimum around ~25°C, and decline more rapidly toward a thermal maximum, which is lower in the ocean than on land. In both realms, the observed temperature sensitivities imply that climate warming this century could decrease N 2 fixation rates by ~50% in the tropics while increasing rates by ~50% in higher latitudes. We propose a conceptual framework for understanding the physiological and ecological mechanisms that underpin and modulate the observed temperature dependence of global N 2 fixation rates, facilitating cross-fertilization of marine and terrestrial research to assess its response to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since widespread monitoring began in 1976 in the UK, habitat‐specialist butterfly populations have declined dramatically. The main driver is habitat degradation, caused primarily by land‐use change, perhaps interacting with changes in vegetation phenology.Here, we focus on two declining species: Boloria selene (Dennis & Schiffermüller) and Boloria euphrosyne L., Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae. We hypothesise that these species differ in their preferred breeding habitat, and this is driven by differences in their temperature preferences, mediated by vegetation cover.We use mark‐release‐recapture techniques and oviposition observations to characterise and compare adult distribution, habitat use and oviposition site preferences of the two species.Egg‐laying females of both species are shown to occur in areas with relatively high abundance of the larval food plants, Viola spp. (violets), principally V. riviniana, and they oviposit where Viola spp. abundance is locally high. However, in contrast to B. selene, ovipositing B. euphrosyne tends to occur in areas with relatively short and sparse cover of vegetation.B. euphrosyne oviposit in sites with a relatively high plant surface temperature irrespective of ambient temperatures, in contrast with B. selene in which the temperature of oviposition sites increases as ambient temperature increases. These differential temperature strategies likely underlie differences in breeding habitat preference.Microclimatic cooling caused by increased vegetation growth in spring may be one reason B. euphrosyne is declining in the UK, while both B. euphrosyne and B. selene may be affected by declining Viola spp. availability. Our data provide further evidence that drivers of butterfly declines can be multi‐factorial, and paradoxically, that thermophilic species do not necessarily benefit from climate warming if responses of other species result in cooling of their habitats. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Species responses to global warming will depend on intraspecific diversity, yet studies of factors governing biogeographic patterns of variability are scarce. Here, we investigate the evolutionary processes underlying genetic and phenotypic diversity in the flightless and cold‐adapted grasshopper Sigaus piliferus, and project its suitable space in time. Location: Te Ika‐a‐Māui Aotearoa—North Island of New Zealand. Methods: We used mitochondrial sequences to investigate population connectivity and demographic trends using phylogeographic tools and neutrality statistics. Metric data were used to document phenotypic variation using naïve clustering. We used niche metrics to assess intraspecific niche variation, and niche modelling to investigate suitability under past and future scenarios. Multiple matrix regressions with randomization explored the processes contributing to phenotypic differentiation among grasshopper populations. Results: Niche models and demographic analyses suggest suitable space for this grasshopper was more restricted during glacial than interglacial stages. Genealogical relationships among ND2 haplotypes revealed a deep north–south split partly concordant with phenotypic and niche variation, suggesting two ecotypes that have mixed during recolonisation of the central volcanic region. Multiple matrix regressions with randomization indicate a link between climate and phenotypic differentiation inferred from leg and pronotum dimensions but not pronotum shape. Niche projections predict severe habitat reduction due to climate warming. Main conclusions: The current distribution and intraspecific diversity of S. piliferus reflect complex biogeographical scenarios consistent with Quaternary climates and volcanism. Phenotypic divergence appears adaptive. Current levels of genetic and phenotypic variation suggest adaptive potential, yet the pace of anthropogenic warming over the next 50 years could result in small populations that may collapse before adapting. Differences in niche features between diverging intraspecific lineages suggest distinct responses to climate change, and this has implications for prioritising conservation actions and management strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Ongoing climate change is presently influencing the distribution ranges of numerous species, with both range expansions and latitudinal shifts being observed. In southern Europe, a biogeographical border that separates African and European biota, while at the same time acting as a migration bridge for many species, these changes are of particular relevance. This study aimed to analyse the responses of nine typically African birds to climate change to provide information on the ongoing and future occupation of Europe by these species. Location: Western Palearctic and surrounding areas. Methods: To this end, the distributions of the species in their native ranges were modelled, both in the present and in future climate scenarios, using their current breeding ranges and a set of topographic and climatic variables. The climatic favourability for the nine species was then combined using fuzzy logic. Results: The results showed that southern Europe is highly favourable for our set of African birds, except for Rüppell's Vulture, and future forecasts indicated that this favourability would increase further north, again excluding the African Vulture. Main conclusions: If the climate continues to warm, further arrivals of individuals are to be expected, increasing the possibility that self‐sustaining populations may become established in southern Europe. Furthermore, new African species may start to occupy this area, with the likelihood of an Africanisation of the European fauna. Considering the role played by southern Europe as a potential focal point for the colonisation of this continent by African species, it is important to track their northward expansion and future spread. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Population-level variation in rodent tail structures has been variously attributed to facilitating social communication, locomotion, thermoregulation, and predator avoidance. Little is known, however, about the applicability of these ecological and social correlates to explaining the tremendous interspecific diversity of this appendage. To investigate the potential drivers of rodent tail morphology at a macroevolutionary level, we first carefully reviewed the literature and constructed a list of major hypotheses regarding this variation. We then compiled a database of 11 different tail traits related to length, color, texture, and ecological characteristics for 2,101 species of rodents (order Rodentia) and examined their key evolutionary correlates. Using Bayesian phylogenetic mixed models across the entire order and additionally within the five rodent suborders, we found that tail length is correlated with both temperature (Allen's rule) and locomotory mode, that black tips are more common in brightly lit environments, that naked tails are often found in warmer climates, that fluffy-tipped tails are more common in smaller and/or arboreal species, that prehensility is predominant in arboreal species and/or species with longer tails, and that tail autotomy is more common in open environments. Most of our tested predictions, largely drawn from population-level studies, are not recapitulated across the entire order, potentially indicating a role of local ecological context in shaping tail morphology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A subcooler reduces the total mass flow rate for a given operation conditions. • Reduced evaporator superheat improves the evaporator heat transfer. • The coefficient of performance increases using a subcooling system. • Flash gas mass flow rate used to reduce the superheat at the compressor inlet. A new position of an internal heat exchanger within the thermodynamic cycle is proposed to improve the performance of CO 2 refrigeration systems in warm climates, specifically in supermarket applications. The proposed configuration uses the saturated vapor from the liquid receiver to recover the heat that is rejected by a subcooler positioned after the gas cooler. This system results in a reduced evaporator superheat. This configuration is compared with a reference system. The experimental study is conducted on a CO 2 laboratory cooling system reproducing a commercial plant. The cooling capacity of the system is 30 kW. The water inlet temperature in the gas cooler (hot source) varies from 15 °C to 35 °C, while the mono-ethylene glycol outlet temperature of the evaporator (cold source) is fixed at -8 °C. The setup is validated through an energy balance. Using a subcooler in this new position improves the coefficient of performance by 10.2 % under transcritical conditions and 6.3 % under subcritical conditions when compared with the reference system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]