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China has responded to the sustainability challenges via a range of policies with evolving objectives in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YEB) since the 1990s. However, the multi-scale analysis of YEB's comprehensive sustainability and the human-environment nexus amid policy impact remains unexplored. A comprehensive review and forecast of historical and future sustainability pathways under policy impacts are imperative. Here, we systematically examined sustainability under ten National Policies (NPs) and Regional Development Policies (RDPs), forecasting Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) in the 21st Century using the entropy weight method and machine learning models. We found that RDPs have contributed to 1.6 times increase in human development from 2000 to 2018 across dimensions of demography, economy, and society in YEB. However, it also revealed that the west-east disparity has widened from 0.14 to 0.19 during this period. Conservation efforts and national initiatives for ecological civilization have led to environmental improvement in the YEB, especially after the RDP3 in 2014, when the eastern provinces, like Shanghai, have already surpassed the peak inverted U-shape curve of the environmental-human nexus. Among the SSPs, SSP1 shows the most sustainable scenario with the lowest ecological footprint at 6.2 hm2 per capita and the highest value of regional sustainability and environmental subsystem. To achieve SSP1, an iterative, inclusive, and context-specific Science-Policy-Practice dialogue is essential. This enables feedback loops and collaboration among policymakers, scientists, and practitioners to foster regional sustainability by studying the implications of historical and future pathways. [Display omitted] • YEB's development transitioned from economic to high-quality. • Regional Policies' effect: Wellbeing surges, overshooting ecological footprints. • The systematic east-west sustainability gradient widened in the past 2 decades. • Eastern provinces of YEB experienced early sustainability turning points. • Optimal SSP1: Lower ecological footprint & climate mitigation, higher development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Contribution variations of various policies to PM 2.5 deaths are quantified by period and region. • Carbon and pollution controls can enable 79% to reside in low PM 2.5 areas by 2060. • Population aging could double PM 2.5 deaths by 2060 if other factors remain constant. • A joint effort for carbon and pollution could prevent 2.15 million PM 2.5 deaths by 2060. • Pollution controls can greatly reduce PM 2.5 before 2030, but climate policy becomes crucial after. To confront the challenges posed by air pollution and climate change, China has undertaken significant initiatives to develop strategies that address both issues concurrently. However, the health benefits of these initiatives have not been clearly articulated. In this study, the dynamic changes in health impacts under air pollution and carbon reduction actions in China are evaluated by employing the latest concentration–response models and projected PM 2.5 concentrations under future scenarios. From 2020 to 2060, the enforcement of clean air and climate mitigation policies is expected to increase the percentage of the population living with PM 2.5 concentrations meeting the 10 μg/m3 standard by 79 %. Without the implementation of relevant mitigation measures, PM 2.5 -associated deaths are projected to double due to an aging population. In comparison to the 2060 reference scenario, the joint implementation of clean air and carbon neutrality measures is expected to reduce nationwide PM 2.5 -associated mortality by 62 %, equivalent to 2.15 (95 % CI: 1.80–2.48) million deaths. Stringent pollution controls are crucial for reducing PM 2.5 -associated deaths before 2030, after which carbon neutrality actions become increasingly significant from 2030 to 2060. The challenges of mitigating future PM 2.5 -associated deaths vary greatly across regions, showing a critical response to pollution control and carbon reduction. The research proves the effectiveness of China's future air pollution control and carbon reduction policies in mitigating PM 2.5 -associated deaths. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon tax is a policy instrument that facilitate the phase-out of coal as a chemical feedstock and help China achieve an early carbon peak. However, the policy design is challenged by the complex dynamics of global warming potentials (GWP) from upstream methane emissions, which have a short atmospheric lifetime but a high climate impact. In this study, we compared the life-cycle GWP of two propylene production routes in China: Coal-to-Olefin (CTO) and Propane Dehydrogenation (PDH). We also conducted a cost-profit analysis that incorporates the carbon tax, considering uncertainties in the dynamic radiative forcing of methane. We derived a range of optimal carbon tax rates that can enhance the economic competitiveness of low-carbon propylene routes PDH and discourage the expansion of coal-fed CTO propylene routes. Results show that, for the propylene sector in China, the carbon tax rate should be between 86 and 600 Chinese Yuan (CNY) or 12–84 US dollars (USD) per ton of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e), which corresponds to 1–10% of the typical propylene price in the Chinese market. Our study provides spatiotemporal insights into the carbon tax for China's propylene sector to decarbonize and control upstream methane emissions. Since propylene is one of the key raw materials for chemical (e.g., plastic) productions, our analysis contributes to the climate benefits of global chemical trade. • Carbon tax contributes to controlling upstream methane emissions from coal-based chemical production. • Time-horizon is crucial for taxing carbon, especially as short-lived greenhouse gas emissions affect propylene producers' profits. • Carbon tax is necessary at provincial scale since the intensity of methane emissions from coal and propane feedstock supply chains vary regionally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon emission reduction in China matters to global climate change mitigation. China has been experiencing extensive land changes, which profoundly influence terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage (TECS) and carbon emissions. Scholars have predicted influences of land changes on TECS in China with scenarios obtained from global integrated assessment models (IAMs), which lack national details. Moreover, universally existing variations in land-use intensity have not been considered when estimating influences on TECS. This study simulated changes of land-use intensity of China from 2000 to 2050 using CLUMondo under China-specified policies for sustainable development modeled by a national IAM named Threshold21-China. We proposed a more precise TECS estimation method by distinguishing land-vegetation and land-soil types. Results demonstrated that under scenario with preceding policies, the total TECS can increase by 865.5 Tg C from 2000 to 2050. Through implementing preceding policies, TECS loss by conversions from cultivated land to artificial surfaces can decline by 82 Tg C, and new TECS accumulated by increased and densified forests can increase by 73 Tg C. Mountainous and rapidly urbanizing regions are sensitively influenced and need more restrict land change management policies. This study demonstrates the significance of sustainable development policies for TECS conservation and indicates specific critical regions. • Introducing national IAM into land change simulation. • Considering land-use intensities in land change simulation. • Proposing an improved TECS estimation method. • Estimating influences of land changes on China's TECS. • TECS accumulation could be improved under sustainable policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme weather and climate events tend to increase and strengthen as global warming intensifies, which severely affect human life and sustainable economic development. Therefore, based on the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP) and the Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), the optimal fingerprinting method is applied to quantify the greenhouse gases (GHG), aerosols (AA), natural forcing (NAT), and land use/cover change (LUCC) contributions to the intensity, frequency, and duration of extreme temperatures in China during 1960—2020. The results show that GHG is the main driver of extreme temperature changes in China, except for ice days (ID0) and cold spells (CSDI). GHG causes an increase in warm spells (WSDI) by about 10 days and an extension of the growing season length (GSL) by 6 to 8 days. The Tibetan Plateau is the region with the strongest extreme temperature changes influenced by GHG. AA forcing has a cooling effect that partially offsets the warming effect of GHG, especially in southeastern China. It should be pointed out that AA forcing is also the main driver for the changes in diurnal temperature range (DTR) in southeastern China, which exceeds the GHG contribution. Additionally, LUCC has greater impact in nighttime extreme temperature indices changes than the regional AA, and becomes the second dominant factor beside GHG. LUCC leads to an attributable cooling contribution of 0.34 °C for the maximum of daily minimum temperatures (TNx). Spatially, the LUCC effects on extreme temperature changes are stronger in western China than in eastern China. The more robust estimation of the GHG, AA, NAT, and LUCC contributions over distinct regions provides an advanced understanding of anthropogenic impacts on regional extreme temperatures, which is expected to be an important reference for regional climate change adaptation and mitigation. [Display omitted] • Tibetan Plateau is the region with the strongest extreme temperature changes influenced by greenhouse gases (GHG). • GHG displays a nonuniformity effect on the changes in the extreme temperature frequency. • Land use/cover change (LUCC) has a stronger role in nighttime extreme temperature indices changes than the regional AA. • The LUCC effects on extreme temperature changes are stronger in western China than in eastern China • The LUCC effects on extreme temperature show asymmetrical characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • 2050 primary energy use can be the same as in 2010 with a 7-fold increase in GDP. • Coal use can peak around 2020, then oil in 2033, and natural gas in 2045. • Non-fossil energy is 28% in 2030, higher than China's Paris Agreement goal of 20%. • Industry CO 2 emissions can peak ∼2020, buildings ∼2029, and transportation ∼2035. • CO 2 emissions can peak in 2025, earlier than China's Paris Agreement goal of 2030. Abstract As part of its Paris Agreement commitment, China pledged to peak carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions around 2030, striving to peak earlier, and to increase the non-fossil share of primary energy to 20% by 2030. Yet by the end of 2017, China emitted 28% of the world's energy-related CO 2 emissions, 76% of which were from coal use. How China can reinvent its energy economy cost-effectively while still achieving its commitments was the focus of a three-year joint research project completed in September 2016. Overall, this analysis found that if China follows a pathway in which it aggressively adopts all cost-effective energy efficiency and CO 2 emission reduction technologies while also aggressively moving away from fossil fuels to renewable and other non-fossil resources, it is possible to not only meet its Paris Agreement Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) commitments, but also to reduce its 2050 CO 2 emissions to a level that is 42% below the country's 2010 CO 2 emissions. While numerous barriers exist that will need to be addressed through effective policies and programs in order to realize these potential energy use and emissions reductions, there are also significant local environmental (e.g., air quality), national and global environmental (e.g., mitigation of climate change), human health, and other unquantified benefits that will be realized if this pathway is pursued in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Reducing power sector emissions in China is a critical step toward mitigating climate change and lowering health damages from air pollution. We conduct a discrete choice survey (N = 1060) among urban residents from 10 Chinese cities, assessing how individuals compare electricity source, cost, and reduction of emissions related to climate change or air pollution. Using observed air quality data, we also evaluate how pollution levels affect respondents' support for different types of emissions reductions. We find that reductions targeting both climate change and human health benefits have stronger support than those which address only one of the two. Furthermore, respondents in cities with the highest annual concentrations of particulate matter are willing to pay 30% more to clean up the air when compared to individuals living in less polluted cities. The analysis suggests that the public values co-optimizing mitigation policy across climate and health objectives, and that making available information on long-term air quality may encourage sustained support for cleaner energy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • We mapped city-level CO 2 emissions simulated by DMSP/OLS nighttime light imagery. • City-level CO 2 emissions were featured as spatial agglomerations. • The GWR revealed significant spatial heterogeneity in the impacts of different factors. • Private car ownership, PCGDP, energy consumption positively affected CO 2 emissions both globally and locally. • The reminder factors studied in the GWR were found to bi-directionally affect CO 2 emissions. Abstract Cities produce over 70% of the global CO 2 emissions that result from energy use, and thus play a key role in climate mitigation and adaptation. While the factors influencing CO 2 emissions have been subject to extensive study, via research that has explored the path of developing a low-carbon economy, little work has been undertaken at the city level as a result of a deficiency in data availability. Addressing this gap, this study firstly estimated CO 2 emissions of cities in China using Defense Meteorological Satellite Program's Operational Linescan System (DMSP-OLS) nighttime light imagery. We then analyzed spatial variations in the estimated CO 2 emissions at the city level, using a spatial analytical model, finding significant spatial autocorrelation in CO 2 emissions. Subsequently, we compared the effects of different socioeconomic factors on CO 2 emissions, using both global and local regression models. The results from the global regression model revealed that private car ownership, economic growth, and energy consumption were the major factors promoting CO 2 emissions in China's cities, while population density had an effect in reducing CO 2 emissions. The use of a Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model provided more detailed results, revealing significant spatial heterogeneity in the impacts of different factors. Economic growth, private car ownership, and energy consumption all posed positive effects on CO 2 emissions while the remainder of the factors studied were found to pose a bidirectional impact on CO 2 emissions in different areas of China. Economic growth and private car ownership were to found to exert the strongest positive effects in the cities of western and central China, and energy consumption was shown to significantly and positively influence CO 2 emissions in the southernmost part of China. Urban expansion and road density were identified as key promoting factors in CO 2 emissions in the northeast of China; and the industrial structure demonstrated significantly positive effects in relation to CO 2 levels in cities located in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The role of foreign direct investment (FDI) was not found to be significant in most cities expect Guangdong, where a significant positive relationship appeared. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Petroleum coke, a non-environmentally friendly energy source, is gradually replacing other power fuels in China’s industrial enterprises because of its price advantage. Petroleum coke has high emission factors and thus emits more greenhouse gases (GHGs) and air pollutants than even raw coal. This study first examines the rapid growth of petroleum coke consumption in China since 2010 by industry sector and region and then estimates the petroleum coke-related emissions. We conclude that the total consumption of petroleum coke increased by 18.9% from 2010 to 2016 and that the industry final consumption for burning in boilers increased dramatically (by 158.2%). Petroleum coke-related CO 2 emissions reached 28 million tonnes in 2016, whereas CH 4 and N 2 O emissions totaled 870 and 143 tonnes, respectively. The increased use of petroleum coke will increase the urgency for the development of climate change mitigation and emissions reduction measures in China. We propose several possible policy suggestions for petroleum coke management and emissions control, such as strongly restricting the production and import of high-sulphur petroleum coke, as well as burning petroleum coke to provide power; more power plants and industrial kiln stoves/boilers should be equipped with efficient decontamination systems; the development of advanced industrial processes and the clean utilization of petroleum coke should be encouraged. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We assessed the climate change impact on wheat production in China. • We employed the FGLS, DOLS, and D–K estimation techniques. • Temperature negatively affected wheat production in the long–run. • Precipitation contributed positively to wheat production in the long-run. • Agro–chemical input (fertilizer use) enhanced wheat production in the long–run. Northern and Southern regions are the two major wheat production belts of China. Agro–climatic resources have changed significantly in recent years, threatening staple food production in these regions. As a result, it is critical to investigate the long–term effect of climate change and agri–inputs on wheat production in China's top six wheat producing provinces (Hebei, Shandong, Henan, Jiangsu, Anhui, and Hubei) from 1995 to 2020. The estimated long-run results from the FGLS, DOLS, and D–K estimators revealed that climatic factors, specifically temperature, had a negative impact on wheat production, while precipitation had a positive impact. The findings also revealed that agrochemical inputs, such as fertilizer, increases wheat production, whereas pesticide use decreases wheat production significantly. The results from the Dumitrescu–Hurlin panel causality test showed a bidirectional causality between rainfall, fertilizer use, and cultivated area with wheat production, while a unidirectional causality association is running from labor force to wheat production. The current study provides several critical policy recommendations for China's sustainable food production through green agricultural practices and robust climate mitigation strategies. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The thermal power industry, the cement industry and the iron & steel industry are among the top energy consumers and air-polluters in China, which have significant impacts on climate change. The annual productions of these three industry sectors are all ranked as the top one in the world. In order to assist the short-term policy making for the development of critical LCTs in China, an evaluation of the performance of low carbon technologies (LCTs) for the top three energy-intensive industries in China is conducted in this paper through multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) method. There are 31 LCTs identified for these three industries based on the criteria including environmental performance, technological performance, and economic performance. Based on the experts’ evaluation, top 10 LCTs are selected as the critical LCTs which should be given priority in the short-term technology diffusion in China. Suggestions are provided for policy-makers on the carbon mitigation and cleaner production in the main energy-intensive industries in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predictions of changes in the distribution of areas suitable for the cultivation of rice and maize in China under future climate change scenarios may provide scientific support for the optimization of crop production and measures to mitigate climate change. We conducted a spatial grid-based analysis using projections of future climate generated by the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model version 4 for two representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5), adopted by the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project to study the areas suitable for the cultivation of rice and maize in China. We investigated the migration of the centers of gravity of the cultivation areas based on climatic and hydrological factors from 2021 to 2100. The results indicated that, under RCP2.6, the areas suitable for the cultivation of rice were located throughout China, except for on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau, while the areas suitable for the cultivation of maize were located in northern, southwestern, central, eastern, parts of northeastern and some northern parts of western China. The distributions of both crops under RCP2.6 showed little change over time. In contrast, the areas suitable for the cultivation of rice and maize under RCP8.5 shifted northward and expanded from northwestern to northern China, as a result of greater warming in northern China and the faster warming trend under RCP8.5. This scenario would require much stronger climate mitigation policies to maintain the stable development of agriculture and to slow down the future migration of crop cultivation areas in China. The distribution of areas suitable for the cultivation of rice and maize should be studied further to design appropriate adaptation strategies for dealing with future climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the past two decades there has been a shift in the geography of Global Supply Chains (GSCs) from developed countries to China, and more recently from China to successor developing countries in South Asia, Africa and Latin America. The shift in GSC geography influences global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions because of an energy efficiency and low-carbon technology gap between developed and developing economies. Our simulations indicate that changing GSC geography toward China positively contributed, on average (2001–2008), 919 Mt CO 2 equivalents to global GHG emissions annually. In addition, there are potentially even larger indirect effects, including import-related and transportation-related emissions that are attributable to GSC shift-related improvements in developing world consumption and infrastructure. We then investigate the emission impact of a further GSCs shift toward South Asia, Africa and Latin America. Although the direct impact of such a shift is likely negative due to a lower dependency on coal as well as lower carbon intensities in South Asia, Africa and Latin America relative to China, it is likely that the direct effects are more than offset by the indirect shift-related effects associated with improvements in consumption and infrastructure. Our results have policy implications for future climate change mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change and energy crises have increasingly impeded the sustainable development of society and economy. With an accelerated process of urbanization and improved standards of living, China has become the largest carbon emitter in the world and therefore has great responsibility and great potential to mitigate global carbon emissions. Accordingly, as the largest source of emissions in China, Chinese buildings should also decrease carbon emissions towards this goal. However, until now, there has been no clear and comprehensive understanding of the carbon emissions in this sector. To fill this gap, we survey the current and future situation. Firstly, we estimate the controlled ceiling of building carbon emission, splitting from the overall reduction goal in China. Then we develop a comprehensive carbon-calculating methodology, the China Building Carbon Emissions Model, using a bottom-up approach, and assess the building carbon emissions based on official statistics. On the basis of that, scenario analysis is used to predict the future trend of carbon emissions in China's building sector. According to our analysis, it is critical to simultaneously control floor space, energy consumption and energy structure to limit the growth of carbon emissions in the building sector. Finally, some relative policy suggestions are also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With rapid economic development, China has been plagued by choking air pollution in recent years, and the frequent occurrence of haze episodes has caused widespread public concern. The purpose of this study is to describe the sources and formation of haze, summarize the mitigation measures in force, review the relationship between haze pollution and public health, and to discuss the challenges, potential research directions and policy options. Haze pollution has both natural and man-made causes, though it is anthropogenic sources that are the major contributors. Accumulation of air pollutants, secondary formation of aerosols, stagnant meteorological conditions, and trans-boundary transportation of pollutants are the principal causes driving the formation and evolution of haze. In China, haze includes gaseous pollutants and fine particles, of which PM 2.5 is the dominant component. Short and long-term exposure to haze pollution are associated with a range of negative health outcomes, including respiratory diseases, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, mental health problems, lung cancer and premature death. China has paid increasing attention to the improvement of air quality, and has introduced action plans and policies to tackle pollution, but many interventions have only temporary effects. There may be fierce resistance from industry groups and some government agencies, and often it is challenging to enforce relevant control measures and laws. We discuss the potential policy options for prevention, the need for wider public dialogue and the implications for scientific research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dietary change presents an opportunity to meet the dual challenges of non-communicable diseases and the effects of climate change in China. Based on a food survey and reviewed data sets, we linked nutrient composition and carbon footprint data by aggregating 1950 types of foods into 28 groups. Nine dietary scenarios for both men and women were modeled based on the current diet and latest National Program for Food and Nutrition. Linear uncertainty optimization was used to produce diets meeting the Chinese Dietary Reference Intakes for adults aged 18–50 years while minimizing carbon footprints. The theoretical optimal diet reduced daily footprints by 46%, but this diet was unrealistic due to limited food diversity. Constrained by acceptability, the optimal diet reduced the daily carbon footprints by 7–28%, from 3495 to 2517–3252 g CO 2 e, for men and by 5–26%, from 3075 to 2280–2917 g CO 2 e, for women. Dietary changes for adults are capable of benefiting China in terms of the considerable footprint reduction of 53–222 Mt. CO 2 e year − 1 , when magnified based on the Chinese population, which is the largest worldwide. Seven of eight scenarios showed that reductions in meat consumption resulted in greater reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. However, dramatic reductions in meat consumption may produce smaller reductions in emissions, as the consumption of other ingredients increases to compensate for the nutrients in meat. A trade-off between poultry and other meats (beef, pork, and lamb) is usually observed, and rice, which is a popular food in China, was the largest contributor to carbon footprint reductions. Our findings suggest that changing diets for climate change mitigation and human health is possible in China, though the per capital mitigation potential is slight lower than that in developed economies of France, Spain, Sweden, and New Zealand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The so-called post-China countries (PC-16́s), distinguished by low wages and high economic growth, will replace China as the “world’s factory”. The aim of this paper is to assess the effect of these changes on global CO 2 emissions pathways. To achieve this, a counterfactual is proposed wherein China’s trade with the rest of the world is replaced by the PC-16’s trade in a global multiregional input–output context. The emissions savings realized by trade replacement are significant in those scenarios where the current pattern of trade is maintained (−13% on emissions traded and −3.5% on global emissions) and in scenarios where enterprises relocate their production directly or indirectly to the most environmentally efficient countries (ranging from −15.2% to −18.2% on emissions embodied in trade). Nevertheless, the potential savings drop considerably (ranging from −1.5% to −7.1%) if companies and host countries take advantage of cheaper, but more polluting means of production and do not internalize the externalities. Through changes in international trade, there is a possibility of reducing emissions, which have to be included in international, multilateral and bilateral agreements to mitigate climate change if we do not want to lose the opportunities these changes present. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Community shared solar (CSS) program has great potentials in contributing to the complete decarbonization of the power sectors worldwide. Few research have focused on its potential diffusion from the user perspective. This paper fills the gap by conducting a survey-based unlabeled choice experiment in the Guangdong Province, China to investigate the determinants of potential users' willingness to participate in CSS programs. We analyzed the survey data using a random parameter logit model. Our results show that users are more likely to participate in CSS programs with lower upfront payment, trialability, shorter payback period, a public utility as provider and larger impact on climate change mitigation. However, they are likely to accept longer payback period in CSS programs with higher participation rate because of the potential benefit from interpersonal communication. Users' previous knowledge of CSS programs and income will also increase their willingness to participate in CSS programs with higher upfront payment. Our results provide important implications for designing policies and business models to promote the distributive renewable energy in China. • Community shared solar is widely accepted among surveyed individuals in our choice experiment. • The business model, and the ownership structure of community shared solar affect its potential adoption. • The interpersonal communication and public promotion of community shared solar program can increase its popularity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agricultural land carbon opportunity cost (COC) characterizes potentials for carbon sequestration through ecosystem restoration, which is a critical component for formulating nature-based solutions to mitigate climate change. Yet existing relevant estimates still stayed at global scale, lacking estimates at national and provincial scale. Here, we integrated multi-source downscaled data to estimate the magnitude of land COC for 20 categories of crops and livestock in 30 provinces of China. Results show that beef got the highest land COC with about 29% of the national total, and COC per unit production of beef was much higher than that of other products. The high beef-induced COC was primarily caused by vast amount of grass feed consumed by beef cattle, resulting in native forest land being cleared into grazing land. Moreover, both land COC and crops yield per unit area of cropland enhanced with latitude decrease, but the increase rate of the former was much higher than that of the latter. Therefore, improving utilization efficiency of existing grazing land and raising yields per unit area of existing croplands in low-latitude provinces, rather than clearing new native forest land into grazing land and cropland, would have great functions on declining national total land COC for agricultural products. The research could also contribute to discussions of local tradeoffs between land carbon storage and agricultural production and then inform climate mitigation strategies. • Land carbon opportunity cost (COC) by province-product in China was estimated. • Sichuan, Hunan, and Guangxi had the largest capacity to restore carbon. • Beef production contributed the most (29%) of national total COC. • Land COC per unit yield enhanced substantially with decreasing latitude. • Tradeoffs between carbon stock and agricultural production needs to be discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China, the world's largest CO 2 emitter, is making every effort to transition to a low-carbon economy and fulfill its part of a concerted global commitment to combating climate change. In tandem with decarbonizing energy and industries, feasible supplementary measures are urgently needed to help remove anthropogenic CO 2 from the atmosphere. A burgeoning literature has emphasized the CO 2 removal capability of land re-naturalization (such as afforestation and wetland restoration), thereby regarding cognate land-use conversions as Nature-based Solutions (NbS) and potential climate policy options. However, little empirical evidence exists concerning the effectiveness of different land re-naturalization pathways (such as converting wetlands to forests or agricultural lands to grasslands), and it also remains unclear how NbS alternatives (i.e., land-use conversions resulting in negative CO 2 emission) and non-NbS options (i.e., land-use conversions resulting in positive CO 2 emission) could affect the social cost of carbon (SCC), a conventional measurement for prescribing carbon mitigation approaches. This study aims to fill in this knowledge gap via embedding NbS into the dynamic integrated climate-economics (DICE) model to quantify their impacts on the SCC. Using the Pearl River Delta region (south China) as a case study for the temporal horizon during 2000–2020, we find that both positive and negative CO 2 fluxes have been brought by different natural/semi-natural land conversions, affecting the SCC correspondingly. A total of 7 out of 17 types of land-use conversions could be identified as feasible NbS interventions, including forest restoration, forest-to-wetland, grassland-to-forest, grassland-to-wetland, grassland-to-cropland, cropland-to-forest, and cropland-to-wetland conversions, which could reduce the SCC values (comparing 2020 base-year with 2000 base-year) by 0.0132, 0.0009, 0.0033, 0.0030, 0.0001, 0.0082, and 0.0001 (USD/tCO 2), respectively. While the SCC is mainly determined by energy and industrial structure, the overall effect of NbS is larger than the sum of land urbanization and non-NbS land-use conversions. Via embedding the real-world inter-dynamics of land-use conversions into the SCC quantification, this study presents a pioneer assessment of the impacts of NbS on the SCC in an integrated framework, sheds important insights into the effectiveness of NbS, and offers practical implications for policy-makers to devise comprehensive policies covering all feasible CO 2 abatement options. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the competitive uses of straw resources as substitutes for fertilizer nutrients, forage and fossil energy is critical to maximize the mitigation of climate change. Focusing on the mitigation of global warming, we developed an uncertainty model for the optimal use of straw in China based on available studies of life-cycle assessment that have determined the advantages of energy savings and reductions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) of 14 conversion technologies. The current pattern of straw use has saved China 0.75 EJ of energy and has reduced GHGs by 270.76 Mt CO 2 e on average annually. Among all competitive uses, the use of straw as forage was most environmental friendly, followed by the uses of straw as alternative sources of nutrients and energy. Simulated scenarios for policies of competing straw uses suggested that joint decision-making among administrative departments was vital to maximize the national mitigation of global warming (i.e. 1.84–2.26 EJ of energy saved or reductions of GHGs of 464.89–568.61 Mt CO 2 e annually) by considering all straw uses comprehensively instead of overemphasizing a single use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urban form is increasingly being recognised by scientists for the potential role it might play in the coordination of sustainable urban development and the reduction of CO 2 emissions. However, despite increasing interest in the morphology of cities in climate change science, few quantitative estimates have been made of the effects of urban form on CO 2 emissions. The goal of this study is to quantify this relation, using panel data for China’s 30 provincial capital cities from 1990 to 2010. In order to meet this aim, we first selected a series of urban form indicators, which we quantified by applying spatial metrics to remotely sensed data. We then estimated CO 2 emission levels using a unified standard method recommended by the IPCC Guidelines, and subsequently performed a panel data analysis. The results of the study demonstrated a positive correlation between the growth of urban areas and CO 2 emission levels. Further, it was also found that increased “urban continuity” led to reductions in CO 2 emissions and that, conversely, increased “urban shape complexity” exerted a positive influence in relation to CO 2 emissions. The findings of this study indicate that measures to make existing cities in China more compact may in fact help to reduce levels of CO 2 emissions, just as increasing fragmentation or increased irregularity with respect to urban form may contribute to increased CO 2 emissions. If serious about achieving meaningful reductions in CO 2 emissions, decision makers and planners should take urban form into consideration when developing low-carbon cities in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Social capital can enhance community resilience to environmental change. Productive and trusted relations among social actors and effectual social norms can help local residents share resources, information and risks. The main objective of our study is to understand the ways in which social attributes and risk considerations influence adoption of resilient economic measures by individuals for reducing potential losses due to catastrophic rainstorm and flooding. This article provides evidence from China on how social capital contributes to anticipatory adaptation to environmental change. The inquiry is based on structured interviews with local residents of Tianjin, a flood-prone port city in China, and a standard regression analysis. Findings show that the intention to make preparation increases with the levels of social expectation, social relationship, and institutional trust. Perceived risk and damage experience, however, have no significant impacts. This suggests that building social capacity and trust will be more effective in enhancing community resilience than merely increasing awareness of hazard risks. We call for greater efforts on strengthening the capacity of formal and informal communal institutions. The structural changes required, however, are challenging. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The carbon balance in urban areas has become a major research challenge and a principal policy concern in efforts to address anthropogenic climate change. Rapid urbanization and industrialization in China urge the search for integrated strategies to mitigate and adapt to climate change, which not only limit to traditional infrastructure sectors, but also cover urban green infrastructure, because plants and soils function as carbon sinks through biotic sequestration. This study presents a nationwide study about how urban green infrastructure could contribute to the carbon balance in 35 major Chinese cities. By the end of 2010, the total area of urban green spaces (the dominant components of urban green infrastructure) accounts for 6.38% of the total land area of these cities and represented 51.7% of the total urban green spaces of all 657 cities in China. Based on empirical data from the literature, the total amount of carbon stored in the vegetation of the urban green infrastructure of 35 cities was estimated at 18.7 million tons, with an average carbon density of 21.34 t/ha. In 2010, the amount of carbon sequestration totaled 1.90 million tons with an average carbon sequestration rate of 2.16 t/ha/year. Collectively, only 0.33% of the carbon emissions from fossil fuel combustion can be offset, ranging from 0.01% in Hohhot to 22.45% in Haikou. Nevertheless, the dominance of young vegetation stands in Chinese urban green infrastructure suggests this small carbon sequestration efficiency could become substantial in the near future, given that appropriate policies and management practices are adopted to promote urban green infrastructure for climate change mitigation and adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: At Copenhagen, the developed countries agreed to provide up to $100bn per year to finance climate change mitigation and adaptation by developing countries. Projects aimed at cutting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will need to be evaluated against dual criteria: from the viewpoint of the developed countries they must cut emissions of GHGs at reasonable cost, while host countries will assess their contribution to development, or simply their overall economic benefits. Co-benefits of some types of project will also be of interest to host countries: for example some projects will contribute to reducing air pollution, thus improving the health of the local population. This paper uses a simple damage function methodology to quantify some of the health co-benefits of replacing coal-fired generation with wind or small hydro in China. We estimate the monetary value of these co-benefits and find that it is probably small compared to the added costs. We have not made a full cost-benefit analysis of renewable energy in China as some likely co-benefits are omitted from our calculations. Our results are subject to considerable uncertainty however, after careful consideration of their likely accuracy and comparisons with other studies, we believe that they provide a good first cut estimate of co-benefits and are sufficiently robust to stand as a guide for policy makers. In addition to these empirical results, a key contribution made by the paper is to demonstrate a simple and reasonably accurate methodology for health benefits estimation that applies the most recent academic research in the field to the solution of an increasingly important problem. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: For thousands of years, the Huang-Hai Plain in northeast China has been one of the most productive agricultural regions of the country. The future of this region will be determined in large part by how global climatic changes impact regional conditions and by actions taken to mitigate or adapt to climate change impacts. One potential mitigation strategy is to promote management practices that have the potential to sequester carbon in the soils. The IPCC estimates that 40Pg of C could be sequestered in cropland soils worldwide over the next several decades; however, changes in global climate may impact this potential. Here, we assess the potential for soil C sequestration with conversion of a conventional till (CT) continuous wheat system to a wheat–corn double cropping system and by implementing no till (NT) management for both continuous wheat and wheat–corn systems. To assess the influence of these management practices under a changing climate, we use two climate change scenarios (A2 and B2) at two time periods in the EPIC agro-ecosystem simulation model. The applied climate change scenarios are from the HadCM3 global climate model for the periods 2015–2045 and 2070–2099 which projects consistent increases in temperature and precipitation of greater than 5°C and up to 300mm by 2099. An increase in the variability of temperature is also projected and is, accordingly, applied in the simulations. The EPIC model indicates that winter wheat yields would increase on average by 0.2Mgha−1 in the earlier period and by 0.8Mgha−1 in the later period due to warmer nighttime temperatures and higher precipitation. Simulated yields were not significantly affected by imposed changes in crop management. Simulated soil organic C content was higher under both NT management and double cropping than under CT continuous wheat. The simulated changes in management were a more important factor in SOC changes than the scenario of climate change. Soil C sequestration rates for continuous wheat systems were increased by an average of 0.4Mgha−1 year−1 by NT in the earlier period and by 0.2Mgha−1 year−1 in the later period. With wheat–corn double cropping, NT increased sequestration rates by 0.8 and 0.4Mgha−1 year−1 for the earlier and later periods, respectively. The total C offset due to a shift from CT to NT under continuous wheat over 16 million hectares in the Huang-Hai Plain is projected to reach 240TgC in the earlier period and 180TgC in the later period. Corresponding C offsets for wheat–corn cropping are 675–495TgC. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS) is considered a critical carbon dioxide reduction technology for climate change mitigation. More recently, it has been attracting significant attention from the Chinese government, industry and academia in relation to its research, development and deployment. This paper screens 1,202 unique scientific articles from Web of Science related to China's CCUS and employs Citespace to conduct a knowledge mapping of the domain. The results show that the number of publications have increased and CCUS has become a multidisciplinary area of study. The paper visually demonstrates the most productive institutions, main authors, and primary sources of China's CCUS research domain. Moreover, the paper explains how the research topics have changed over time and discovers the current research frontiers including "pipeline", "shale gas" and "steel". Of significant interest is the finding that China's CCUS research progress appears to be directly related to the increasing policy support through China's five-year planning process. However, research regarding public perception, financial mechanisms and appropriate business models for CCUS deployment is found to be less prevalent. Recommendations to improve research in these areas are provided from the perspective of government intervention. This paper also highlights the importance of continued government support for CCUS as part of the national development strategy for carbon emissions reduction and transitioning towards a low carbon future. • The evolution of China's CCUS research is identified using a bibliometric method. • Outlines research foci, most productive organizations, main authors and top-tier journals. • Government intervention appears the most significant driver for CCUS development in China. • Three research areas−"pipeline", "shale gas" and "steel"− are receiving strongest policy support. • The topics "public perception", "financial mechanisms", and "business models"− lack sufficient focus in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The increasing vehicle numbers in China have raised issues on effective mitigation of the vehicular NO x emissions recently. Notably, temporally growing and spatial agglomeration of high vehicular NO x emissions make an essential challenge to the mitigation strategy-makers. However, so far, there have been few studies to give insight into the socioeconomic drivers like the spatial imbalance of socioeconomic development, vehicle structure and road infrastructure to help governors. To fill the above gap, this study explores drivers of temporal change and spatial differences by building a temporal-spatial decomposition model and accounting for national and regional NO x emissions from vehicles in China from 2005 to 2015. Results show that, of all the driving forces in this study, only road vehicle carrying capacity (ΔN VI) acts as a primary driving force for both temporal growing and spatial agglomeration of vehicular NO x emissions in China. Regional vehicle emission intensity (ΔN NI) and road economic growth (ΔN EI) only mainly contributed to spatial agglomeration. While economic development (ΔN G) played a crucial role in the temporal growing of vehicular NO x emissions in China. These findings indicate that the future mitigation policy should fully cover the comprehensive socioeconomic factors, which would be useful for China and other developing countries when aiming to improve the performance of their current vehicle emissions policy system. Image 1 • China's NO x emissions from provincial vehicles were estimated during 2005–2015. • A new temporal-spatial decomposition model was built to identify emission drivers. • Road vehicle carrying capacity drives both temporal change and spatial difference. • Regional emission intensity and road economic growth affect spatial difference. • Economic development played a crucial role in the temporal change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As bioenergy produces neutral or even negative carbon emissions, the assessment of biomass resources and associated emissions mitigation is a key step toward a low carbon future. However, relevant comprehensive estimates lack in China. Here, we measure the energy potential of China's domestic biomass resources (including crop residues, forest residues, animal manure, municipal solid waste and sewage sludge) from 2000 to 2016 and draw the spatial-temporal variation trajectories at provincial resolution. Scenario analysis and life cycle assessment are also applied to discuss the greenhouse gas mitigation potentials. Results show that the collectable potential of domestic biomass resources increased from 18.31 EJ in 2000 to 22.67 EJ in 2016 with overall uncertainties fluctuating between (−26.6%, 39.7%) and (−27.6%, 39.5%). Taking energy crops into account, the total potential in 2016 (32.69 EJ) was equivalent to 27.6% of China's energy consumption. If this potential can be realized in a planned way to displace fossil fuels during the period 2020–2050, cumulative greenhouse gas emissions mitigation would be in the range of 1652.73–5859.56 Mt CO 2 -equivalent, in which the negative greenhouse gas emissions due to the introduction of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage would account for 923.78–1344.13 Mt CO 2 -equivalent. Contrary to increasing bioenergy potentials in most provinces, there are declining trends in Tibet, Beijing, Shanghai and Zhejiang. In addition, Yunnan, Sichuan and Inner Mongolia would have the highest associated greenhouse gas mitigation potentials. This study can provide valuable guidance on the exploitation of China's untapped biomass resources for the mitigation of global climate change. • China's bioenergy potential in 2016 accounted for 27.6% of its energy consumption. • The bioenergy potential in Tibet, Beijing, Shanghai and Zhejiang was declining. • GHG mitigation potentials of China's bioenergy would be 1653–5860 Mt CO 2 e by 2050. • China's bioenergy can contribute 6–21% to a global carbon mitigation goal in 2050. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS), has been deemed an essential component for climate change mitigation and is conducive to enabling a low-carbon and sustainable future. Since the 12th Five-year Plan, China has included this technology as part of its future national carbon mitigation strategies. China's policy framework in relation to CCUS has had a strong influencing role in the technology's progress to date. This paper employs the "policy cycle" to analyze China's existing CCUS regulatory framework at the national and provincial level, evaluate its performance and clarify its shortcomings in light of the comparisons of policy movements undertaken in other countries. The results indicate that China's CCUS policy is insufficient for further development of the technology and many issues remain to be solved. This includes the lack of an enforceable legal framework, insufficient information for the operationalization of projects, weak market stimulus, and a lack of financial subsidies. These factors may be the reason we have seen low participation rates of Chinese companies in CCUS and little public understanding of what the technology offers. To overcome these challenges, suggestions are provided for improving China's CCUS legal and policy framework. • The development of China's CCUS policy framework is reviewed. • China's national Five-year Plans referring to CCUS affect provincial policies as they share similar objectives since 2011. • China's national policies influence China's research and engineering practices related to CCUS. • China's CCUS fails to meet the proposed targets in technology roadmap issued during the period of the 12th Five-year Plan. • Recommendations to amend the regulatory framework for CCUS in China are provided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]