A roadmap for China to peak carbon dioxide emissions and achieve a 20% share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy by 2030.

Highlights • 2050 primary energy use can be the same as in 2010 with a 7-fold increase in GDP. • Coal use can peak around 2020, then oil in 2033, and natural gas in 2045. • Non-fossil energy is 28% in 2030, higher than China's Paris Agreement goal of 20%. • Industry CO 2 emissions can peak ∼2020, buildings ∼2029, and transportation ∼2035. • CO 2 emissions can peak in 2025, earlier than China's Paris Agreement goal of 2030. Abstract As part of its Paris Agreement commitment, China pledged to peak carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions around 2030, striving to peak earlier, and to increase the non-fossil share of primary energy to 20% by 2030. Yet by the end of 2017, China emitted 28% of the world's energy-related CO 2 emissions, 76% of which were from coal use. How China can reinvent its energy economy cost-effectively while still achieving its commitments was the focus of a three-year joint research project completed in September 2016. Overall, this analysis found that if China follows a pathway in which it aggressively adopts all cost-effective energy efficiency and CO 2 emission reduction technologies while also aggressively moving away from fossil fuels to renewable and other non-fossil resources, it is possible to not only meet its Paris Agreement Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) commitments, but also to reduce its 2050 CO 2 emissions to a level that is 42% below the country's 2010 CO 2 emissions. While numerous barriers exist that will need to be addressed through effective policies and programs in order to realize these potential energy use and emissions reductions, there are also significant local environmental (e.g., air quality), national and global environmental (e.g., mitigation of climate change), human health, and other unquantified benefits that will be realized if this pathway is pursued in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]