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This article serves as a reply to comments made by E.G. Dunning and E.I. Hopper on the author's paper on social stratification in industrial society. Dunning and Hopper state that his paper 'explicitly sets out to explore' the problem of convergence. This, the author is afraid, is to claim too much for it. The author also wants to correct the statement made on the notion of one-way convergence. He wants also to explain that he does not think that American work on the subject of convergence as monolithic. He also explains that claim made that he regards national culture, political ideology and political organization as 'fixed and unalterable constraints on the effects of economic organization and technology'. Dunning and Hopper apparently fail to realise that the argument of Leach's to which they refer can equally be directed against the making of comparisons of a superficial kind. Certainly the existence of `generalised structural patterns' may be masked by differences in their specific manifestations in particular cases; but at the same time it is also implied by Leach's analogy that apparent similarities in social structures may be deceptive and may conceal underlying differences which it is the task of sociological analysis to expose.

The article focuses on a study which analysis the news flow from developed and developing nations. It mentions that the study which used the main trunk teletype wire of the Associated Press (AP) in the U.S. focus on the comparison of the news flow from such states with the news flow form more economically and politically developed areas of the world. It states that the I.B.M. 1108 computer at the University of Wisconsin was used to compile the comparative content analysis data during the study. Moreover, the study shows that the largest percentage of news from individual developed countries was concerned in the U.S.

The college sorority, though academically disesteemed, is sociologically relevant as an agent of ascriptive groups, maintaining normative controls over courtship which in simpler societies require less specialized expression. Norms of endogamy persist in industrial societies, applying more strongly to women than to men, and being harder to maintain in higher strata. Religion- and class-specific schools provide control, but most students today attend heterogeneous "public" campuses. Since nubile appeal is high at collegiate ages control by postponing marriage would disadvantage women. Ascriptive control therefore calls for an organization which simultaneously will discourage improper marriage and encourage proper marriage; further it must operate where opportunities and temptations for exogamy and hypogamy are strong and at a physical remove from those most committed to control. This being the theory of the sorority, the paper concludes with illustrative description. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article presents repose of the authors on comments made by scholar Henry H. Villard on the paper "Investment Criteria, Productivity, and Economic Development" that was published in the August 1955 issue of the periodical "The Quarterly Journal of Economics." Villard raises issues, which the authors agree are important, and must be taken into account in any realistic discussion of economic development. The paper makes clear, the awareness of the fact that population must be regarded as a variable, rather than a constant, in development plans. One of the authors had already devoted a considerable amount of attention to the theoretical side of this question. But it is difficult to understand Villard's feeling of practical certainty about the productiveness of direct investment in factories making birth control devices, in the agricultural setting. No evidence is presented to support this assertion. Since he speaks only of devices, he evidently does not include the cost, both private and social, of achieving the revolution in mores, mental attitudes, and social and moral values, conducive to the acceptance of birth control. This is a delicate and perhaps explosive issue. A reading of the contributions of demographers and other experts who have been close students of this problem does not leave one with a feeling of practical certainty on this point.

This article presents a discussion on a research paper "Commercial Policy in the Underdeveloped Countries," published in the May 1959 issue of the journal "American Economic Review," by Raul Prebisch from the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America. In dealing with mechanisms that are supposedly "inherent" in elasticities or terms of trade, one cannot help feeling uneasy about the degree of generalization and the inference from historical statistics that the material of the research paper permits. General methods of determining elasticities, especially over the long term, are far less than perfect, and the difficulties of terms-of-trade analysis are also great enough to warrant caution. The numerical examples used by Prebisch are based on the usual assumption of an income elasticity of less than unity for primary products. On the demand side this assumption seems reasonable enough, but long-term supply elasticities within the industrial countries have been shifting significantly in developing countries. However, the domestic output of certain minerals has not kept up with demand, so that the import requirements are rising relative to income growth in the industrial world, notwithstanding some protectionist interference.

The article presents the abstracts of several papers on economics published in the September 1965 issue of the journal "Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv." The first paper of the journal is "The Vicious Circle of Poverty," by P.T. Bauer. This paper is a criticism of the thesis of the vicious circle of poverty and stagnation, which is a major generalisation of the literature on underdeveloped countries. The thesis states in effect that poverty itself sets up well-nigh insurmountable obstacles to its own conquest. The second paper of the journal is "Planning for Resources and Planning for Strategy Change," by Gustav Ranis. The third paper of the journal is "The Goals and Criteria of Comprehensive Development Planning," by Bruno Knall. It is the basic assumption of this paper that comprehensive development planning realistically conceived is essential for the economic and social progress in developing countries. The fourth paper of the journal is "Dualism As a Problem of Economic Development," by Reimut Jochimsen.

The article discusses financial performance for corporations in the manufacturing industry. A sampling of 816 firms across four industries and in five developed countries during 1966-72 have comparative studies conducted on them looking at the financial performance variables of growth, profitability, and risk as determinants of corporate debt ratios.

Information about several papers discussed at International Conference on Science in the Advancement of New States which was held in Israel is presented. The conference focused on the introduction to the world leaders the eminent scientists from advanced countries and explaining to them how science and technology can help with their problems. Several scientists spoke at the conference including P. M. S. Blackett, John Cokcroft, and John A. Jukes.

In a recent paper published in the Economic Journal, Professor William D. Nordhaus of Yale University reviewed World Dynamics by Jay W. Forrester. In his criticism. Nordhaus signals three "serious problems" and several additional "questionable assumptions" of sufficient importance to undermine the usefulness of Forrester's book. However, a careful examination of his analysis shows that each point made by Nordhaus rests on a misunderstanding of World Dynamics, a misuse of empirical data, or an inability to analyze properly the dynamic behavior of the model by static equilibrium methods. The three "serious problems" raised by Nordhaus concern the assumptions that connect industrialization to net birth rates in World Dynamics, the representation of technology and production within the world model, and the impact of prices on global resource use. The analysis presented here refutes the Nordhaus arguments and shows that World Dynamics is consistent with his references to real-world data on population, production, and capital accumulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article is concerned with the extent to which empirical support for the so-called "key-industry" hypothesis, may be found in the characteristics of money-wage inflation in fifteen industrial countries, in all of which the structural relationships underlying the determination of money wages were oligo-polistic product markets, strong trade unions and reasonable aggregate stability near full employment. The forces which cause inflation may be divided into two groups. In the first group may be placed those factors called, for the purposes of this paper, "special effects," which occur relatively infrequently, and, in general, have a once-and-for-all effect. Examples are a devaluation, which by raising the prices of imported goods leads to upward pressure on money wages as unions seek to restore the real wages of their members, severe social conflict such as that in France in May 1968, and significant changes in the degree of state intervention in the wage-bargaining process. In the second category belong those forces which are believed to exert a systematic influence on the course of money wages, linking the rate of money wage inflation to the behaviour of particular economic, social or political variables.

This paper is a study of the behaviour of the aggregate savings coefficient in the course of Brazilian development. Brazil is especially useful for such a case-study. Unlike most less-developed countries, many of the economic and social changes and the policy measures which have been suggested on a priori grounds as conducive to raising marginal savings rates have in fact taken place. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article focuses on the export earnings of less developed countries. A central determinant of LDC export performance and growth is their ability to secure expanded and reliable access to the major developed-country markets for manufacturers and semi-manufacturers. It is noted that the instruments of trade policy into tariff and nontarriff measures consider as the primary focus for market access of the developed countries. This paper discusses the implications of nontariff measures applied to imports by the industrial countries and bearing on manufactures and semimanufactures, for the export performance and prospects of the developing economies.

The article presents a discussion on international commodity stabilization, export problems of developing countries and domestic consequences of export instability. Much of the motivation of recent proposals for international commodity arrangements has been to provide for international transfer of income from industrial countries to low-income, primary producing countries. Such transfers raise inevitable problems of allocation of income, not only between extending and receiving countries, but also among the various receiving countries. One of the central policy issues is whether to make these transfers through commodity arrangements or by alternative means. The authors of the several papers stress some of the difficulties inherent in some of these proposed commodity arrangements. Professor Raymond F. Mikesell has given an impressive list of technical difficulties that might be encountered in their operation. Professor Clark W. Reynolds has suggested that it may be very difficult to stabilize both export proceeds and foreign exchange receipts at the same time and professor Boris C. Swerling has indicated that the historical experience does not suggest that the agreements in the past have alleviated the underlying problems.

This article presents a list of new books related to economics published in the March 1963 issue of the "American Economic Review." The books in the economic history, economic development and national economies section include "The British Government and Commercial Negotiations With Europe, 1783-1793," by J. Ehrman, "Neuere Forschungen zur Wirtschafts-und Sozialgeschichte der USA," by W. Fischer, "Nepal's Economic Development on International Basis-An Analysis of Foreign Aid Utilization," by Y.P. Pant, "A Strategy for Greek Economic Development," by A.G. Papandreou and "Ekonomika sovreinennogo Tailanda," by V. Pavlovski. The books in the labor economics section include "Medical Care Under Workmen's Compensation," by E.F. Cheit, "The Guardian Wage Indexes," by E. Devons and J.R. Crossleyn, "American Assembly-Automation and Technological Change," edited by J.T. Dunlop, "Labor Law," by N.S. Falcone, "Employs Savings Plans in the United States," by H. Fox and M. Meyer," Labor in Developing Economics," by W. Galeson and "Social Justice," edited by R.B. Brandt.

Economic development has long been a dominant topic in sociology. Since Marx' and Weber's initial insights, sociologists have been unraveling the complex relationships in this ubiquitous process. Recent conceptual work (Smelser, 1959, 1963; Parsons, 1966; More, 1964; Eisenstadt, 1964, 1965; Rostow, 1963) has attempted to isolate critical variables and relationships among them in the process of economic development. One of the consistent attempts of this literature is predicting when, where, and how fast economic development will occur in modernizing Third World nations. Drawing upon this growing body of literature, this paper will outline an analytical model of economic development. This model is especially relevant to developing Third World nations, although it is sufficiently abstract to encompass economic development in other types of historical and contemporary societies. The term model has an ambiguous meaning. In this paper, a model is a map or grid of relationships among analytically important units. The model presented here is cybernetic, denoting key feedback processes, both negative (Weiner, 1954; Nadel, 1953) and positive (Maruyama, 1963). Ideally, a model should assign differential weights to various relationships, but in the model to be presented, only general weights will be assigned to some relationships. As will be emphasized, feedback relationships among units will be considered to carry more weight than other relationships in determining rates of economic development. Beyond this, existing data do not warrant further weighting. But an attempt will be made to delineate those variables within and outside the economy affecting the weights of any particular relationship in the model. In doing so, elements in the model can begin to approximate a set of propositions in a more general theory of economic development. For the purposes of analysis, the economy can be divided into two general sectors (Moore, 1967): (1) the productive; and (2) the distributive. Production concerns those structures and processes involved in gathering resources from the environment and converting them into goods and commodities, while distribution refers to those structures and processes dealing with the dissemination of commodities throughout a social system. The model presented in this paper will focus on relationships between and within these two general economic sectors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper outlines a framework for studying the social-cultural determinants of family size in 20 low mortality countries of controlled natality. Two broad hypotheses are proposed: (1) Family size varies inversely with the availability of alternatives for the satisfaction of interests presumably satisfied by having children. (2) Family size is smallest under two polar sets of conditions: (a) where the social setting maximizes the individual's expectation that his interests and those of his children will be satisfied, and (b) where the social setting minimizes this expectation. Representative social indicators for making the necessary international comparisons are enumerated, and the steps in their construction discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the paper presented by Dr. Pahl zu on social conditions in the Netherlands. With admirable clarity, displaying an extensive knowledge of the relevant literature, he has demonstrated that the traditional concept of the rural-urban continuum is more an obstacle than a help in the work. Of course, this conclusion as such is not new, as Dr. Pahl himself has shown in his review of recent literature. Any sociologist who has used the concept in his work, has come sooner or later to the finding that one or more elements did not fit in the construct. Whatever the criteria chosen for characterization may be, there is always the case to be found of an urban group behaving 'rural' and of a rural group being 'urban', or, worst of all, one finds rural and urban characteristics within one group or individual. With the description of the situation in 'urban villages' and with the examples taken from studies made in the developing countries, in which all sorts of discontinuities between the urban and the rural come into the view, Dr. Pahl has found strong support for his statements. It is clear that a typology of settlements, from the small to the large, can never form the basis for a continuum which classifies social structures.

This article presents an introduction to a selected bibliography of various literature related to sociology. It is largely because of the broad range of problems currently of concern in modern industrial societies that interest in the development of social indicators has not localized itself in any particular sector of society. "Recent Sociological Trends," by William Ogburn represents one of the earliest attempts to compile a system of social indicators. To gain a strong historical background to the growth for the social indicator movement one may find it helpful to examine the interest and activities of the federal government in this movement. For, even though government in the United States has traditionally displayed a tendency to overlook the broader social dimensions of societal change and development in favor of narrower economic concerns, some of the strongest momentum in the growth of the social indicator movement has come by way of the federal government. Several of the more influential publications appearing over the past five years have been directly or indirectly a product of governmental activities.

The article focuses on the demand for money in industrial countries. It states that the amount of money demanded can be estimated as a negative function of price and a positive function of constraint. It mentions that the demand for money is inversely related to interest rates and has a direct universal relation to income. It states that income is an important part of money demand in industrial nations, while income elasticities was inversely related to money market state of development. It mentions that interest rates had an inverse relationship with demand for money in the industrialized nations.

Imitation of institutional models from industrialized nations is disfunctional for the developing nation. The imported model often does not fit the needs of the host culture. Furthermore, the model is a product of particular historical circumstances in the exporting country. Members of that institution would not recreate it in its present form if they were free to build anew. Industrialized countries are also characterized by a high degree of specialization and by complex problems of coordination of specialties. The developing nation can progress best as it pursues an innovative strategy with an emphasis upon the integration among specialties. The argument is illustrated with cases drawn primarily from Peru. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the available evidence relative to the distribution of income in a developing country, Colombia, over a relatively long span of years, roughly from the mid-30s to the mid-60s, especially in the context of the argument that recent growth has been characterized by worsening distribution and stable or declining incomes for lower income groups. The basic conclusions are that income distribution within agriculture worsened throughout the period, while non-agricultural income probably worsened from the mid-30s to the early 50s, improved from then to the mid-60s, and then leveled off. During the period of improvement in non-agricultural income, it appears that the overall distribution also improved somewhat. Over the period as a whole, the main gainers have been the second and third deciles from the top; the top decile appears to have lost. The bottom two deciles also appear to have lost. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Sociologia Ruralis is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This is a second and comparison paper on the continuance and functioning of a kin family network in contemporary industrial society. The concept of the kin network is proposed as a replacement for the one which posits that a nuclear family unit is most suited functionally for the exigencies of modern life. The kin family network is composed of nuclear families bound together by affectional ties and choice. The lifelines of the network are help and service exchanged among members of nuclear families related by blood and affinal ties. Help, service and social interaction characterize the activities of this interdependent kin family system identified as the kin family network. Help and service among kin members take many forms. The principal form of help among parents and their married offspring is financial aid. One purpose of this paper is to examine how much aid binds together nuclear related families along generational lines. In this paper the term parental aid for married children is limited to financial assistance which may be in the form of cash, gifts, or services.

This paper examines selected demographic characteristics of countries at different stages of economic development On one hand, the data show that the demographic status of underdeveloped countries continues to be substantially more primitive than that of more economically advanced nations. On the other hand, there is evidence to suggest that some of the traditionally observed relationships (such as the inverse relationship between economic development and the rate of population growth) may not be as pronounced as was the case earlier in the present century. Since the various characteristics that differentiate underdeveloped areas from the rest of the world are closely related to the forces and circumstances which handicap their economic development, these findings may be taken as indicative of a real need for a continuous reexamination of the nature of the characteristic features of underdeveloped areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Classification of areal units by population size has been suggested as a useful tool for studies of within-urban and within-rural variations. Size of population is doubtless one of the most important factors affecting mans collective life. But in studying within-urban or within- rural variations, population size will be a powerful tool only if the places so classified are approximations of communities in the sense of a collective phenomenon. That is, population size may not differentiate organizational characteristics of areal units unless the aggregates studied are inter-dependent wholes, organized units, entities exhibiting a high degree of unit character. Data from India presented in this paper illustrate this point. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The proposition that early socialization in a rural society presupposes subsequent low levels of socio-economic status achievement in urban society is re-examined in this paper. The data show that the same factors influence subsequent socio-economic status achievement for persons reared in either a rural or an urban society. The data further suggest that the crucial variable in explaining the ability of persons to compete in a complex, industrial and commercial society is the early orientation which they develop with respect to the system in which they will compete and the ways in which they will relate to the system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Students of the American working-class movement have often contended that the absence of a feudal background in the U.S. retarded the development of the working-class movement. The basis of this contention is that America is not only the one highly industrialized country without a powerful working-class movement but that it is also the one highly industrialized country without a feudal background. As early as 1886, Engels offered as one of the reasons for the weakness of the American working-class movement the fact that we "developed in a purely bourgeois fashion without any feudal past." Nevertheless, neither Engels nor any other writer has gone very far beyond mere assertion. There are of course many factors that account for the retarded development of the American working class. This paper attempts to explain the manner in which the absence of a feudal background contributed to the creation and intensified the operation of those factors. The proximate determinants of the strength of a movement for the emancipation of an oppressed class in a highly industrialized society are: (1) degree of actual oppression; (2) extent to which existing conditions are conducive to arousing resentment against and organizing or position to the given degree of oppression.

The environmental "crisis" is now a top priority in many industrialized countries. Perceived of as a threat to a society's resources, the environmental problem raises important questions regarding competing system goals. The problem cuts across traditional political and administrative structures and thus carries Several implications for political change. Since the environmental issue has gained political recognition at the same time in many political systems, the auspices for comparative research are good. This paper contains an analysis of the Swedish response to the environmental problem. The most spectacular changes seem to have appeared in policy content, and in the performance levels of the actors, while the structures of the system remain almost unchanged. A general framework for comparative environmental analysis is developed, followed by a discussion of certain aspects of environmental policy and political change. Drawing from Swedish, American and Canadian data, the complex adaptation processes between innovative agents, public opinion and institutionalized power mechanisms are discussed. Some propositions are offered for further comparative research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Conglomerate companies are one of the more recent phenomena of advanced industrial systems and have been the subject of great controversy and misunderstanding. Problems of definition have been widespread with different authorities viewing conglomerates in a variety of ways. This paper aims to present a considered definition of conglomerates, and to examine the organizational and marketing problems that have faced such companies, with suggestions for some solutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses about the problems of differential fertility in Mexico utilizing data that have more recently become available. Large increase in Mexico's urban population has come about in large part from differential internal migration. Indirect evidence of this is shown by an analysis of state-of-birth data from the Mexican Censuses of 1940 and 1950. It was observed that Mexican fertility is subject to the differential effect of urbanization in much the same way as has been fertility in the industrialized countries of the West. The second major observation is that urban dominance significantly reduces the fertility ratio and offers a variable whose importance in fertility studies has hitherto been unexplained. The significance of this factor deserves attention in fertility studies of our own country. It is hoped that the methodological decisions pertaining to the rural-urban designations as well as the technique developed to hold the effects of age constant will be of some use to students of fertility in areas where such methods need to be employed.

This article discusses the relation between modern industrialism and cultural values. The author says that he must apologize for excursion in semantics since it probably reflects very recent and prolonged experience with a study of the importance of the m

This paper takes as its starting point the postulate that in most developed countries today, a diminution of the current inequality of income distribution is something that should be welcomed. There are important differences of opinion about the reasons for regarding inequality as excessive, when it gets beyond a certain point, about the speed at which it is desirable that inequality should diminish, and about the earnestness with which one should insist upon the significance of the obvious distinction between diminishing inequality and establishing equality. An examination of these differences is, however, for the most part not necessary for the purposes of the present discussion, which is designed primarily to bring out the significance of the contrast between the two main approaches commonly used in elaborating techniques for the diminution of inequality. Nevertheless, the decision to place the greater emphasis on one or other of these approaches is a matter of considerable practical importance and is likely, moreover, to reflect still more profound differences in economic and social philosophy. The causes which have produced the current pattern of income distribution are complex.

Cross-sectional data and long-period time series data have generally shown an inverse relationship between income and fertility. But short-period time series data over the business cycle have shown a direct relationship. The first part of this paper resolves this apparent paradox by showing that it arises from a statistical illusion-specification bias due to omitted lagged variables. The second part of the paper then considers the likely unconditional effect of income on fertility in several sorts of situations: (a) secular income increase in less developed countries; (b) cyclical income change in industrialized countries; (c) secular income increase in industrialized countries; and (d) incentive payments for higher and lower fertility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article looks at the influence of the socio-political conditions on the economic development program in the African Reserves of South Africa as of May 1966. Attention focused recently in journals and elsewhere on the Reserves has stressed political above economic factors. In particular, the granting of a small measure of autonomy to the Transkei (the largest Reserve) has been high-lighted. But even complete political autonomy (a very distant prospect) would be a fragile achievement unless fortified by the realization of economic potential. Economic development thus assumes an importance in the long run at least equal to political development. In this paper it is proposed, therefore (1) to describe the reasons for the relative economic backwardness of the Reserves; (2) to briefly mention some proposals for development and actual government policy in the Reserves in recent times; and (3) to suggest how this policy needs to be changed. The article presents a summary on the political background to the present economic development program being implemented in the nation. Just as the more advanced parts of the South African economy could be more fully employed in developing the less advanced, so could it contribute considerably to the development of the African continent at large--if only the political climate allowed.

SUMMARY Previous contributions to the theory of devaluation have concentrated on its effect on the country's balance of trade (the 'stability conditions') and the commodity terms of trade. This paper is concerned with the conditions under which devaluation would improve the country's incometerms of trade defined as: Percentage change in the value of exports./Percentage change in the price of imports. An algebraic formula is developed, which expresses the conditions in terms of the elasticities of export-supply and import-demand. The results are then presented in geometric terms, and applied to some current problems. It turns out that while an industrial country is likely to improve its income terms of trade by devaluing its currency, the opposite is true for a primary-materials producing country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Sociologia Ruralis is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The article presents information on various conferences, meetings and papers published in several periodicals related to the rural sociology. In 1962 a Committee for International Co-operation in Rural Sociology was established jointly by the American Rural Sociological Society and the European Society for Rural Sociology. The founders of this rather informal organization were aware right from the beginning of their work that the Committee should be broadened to a world-wide scale as soon as possible. Among the first activities of the Committee was the preparation of the First World Congress for Rural Sociology which was held in August 1964 in Dijon, France. A seminar on peasantry in Birmingham will be held on April 26-27, 1965. This was the second meeting of this type under the chairmanship of R.E.F. Smith, Centre for Russian and East European Studies, University of Birmingham. There were some 10 to 12 participants, mainly historians but also economists and sociologists, among whom two from continental Europe

The article focuses on the population growth in developed countries. There remains considerable disagreement among economists concerned with problems of development on the validity of the economic case for a public policy designed to slow down the rate of population growth. Whatever the strength of the argument for investing in programs that engineer a reduction of fertility, it is to be hoped that the secular demographic transition underdeveloped countries are now undergoing can be completed without the application of such devices. The very depth of the contradiction between the economic aspirations of the underdeveloped world and the anachronistic patterns of its reproductive behavior gives some reason for optimism. Paradoxically, however, the problems of deliberate interference with fertility by economic means--problems that, in the light of the arguments presented in this paper, may appear to be the exclusive property of poor, underdeveloped societies are likely also to be among the problems of the affluent societies of the perhaps not-too-distant future.

The article presents a reappraisal of the proposed theory on how the money supply in a developing country is determined. The paper tests, during 24 additional quarterly observations for the years 1962 through 1967, the predictive capacity of the originally estimated equations in three ways. First, the structural equations are examined for change in the underlying structure by using methods described by Johnston. Second, an even stronger test is made by creating a new simulation experiment which uses the data for all variables during the last quarter of the original period as the initial conditions for a new simulation of 24 quarters, where predicted values use the previous quarter's predictions rather than given values. Last, simulated values of the money supply are compared with predictions of the simple money multiplier model, using the originally estimated coefficients.

This paper describes a model of U.K. exports of manufactures to industrial countries. The model is outlined in the first section and estimated in the succeeding section. The next section compares the relative efficiencies of aggregate and micro-relations. The paper ends with a discussion of a partially reduced form of the model. Industrial countries are defined as 1967 OECD members (excluding Iceland); these countries accounted for 50 per cent of world imports of manufactures and 70 per cent of total world imports and took about 56 per cent of U.K. total exports of manufactures, in 1967. Manufactured goods are defined as SITC Sections 5-S inclusive. Quarterly data from 1956 to mid-1968 are used. All trade and price series are expressed at 1963 U.S. dollar prices, and activity indicators are also expressed in real terms. This was because it was thought that the structural parameters of the model could be better estimated using volume rather than value flows. Also the full London Business School macro-economic model measures national income as the sum of expenditures corresponding to output produced at home at 1963 prices. So, in forecasting G.D.P., estimates are needed of U.K. exports at 1963 prices. Conversion to current price forecasts, for balance of payments purposes, is made using an explanatory relationship for U.K. export prices of manufactures. Conversion into sterling terms from dollar values is straightforward, after allowing for the sterling devaluation of November, 1967. The present model is only a partial version of a larger system explaining individual trade flows between countries; it is concerned wily with individual relations for British exports by markets and with total import flows for the other industrial countries.

The article presents a list of books and papers about trade restrictions. The books and papers include "Tariff Protection in Industrial Countries," published in "The Journal of Political Economy," "Multilateral Commercial Diplomacy," by Gerard Curzon, "The GATT International Trade Centre," published in "The Quarterly Journal of AISEC International," "Auto Pact Challenge," published in "Monetary Times," "Anti-Dumping Amendments Threaten Foreign Trade and Balance of Payments," published in "Business Abroad," and "The Auto Makers' Vision," published in "Executive."

This article discusses the definition of income in studies of budget incidence and income distribution. Interest in distribution has recently revived. In developed countries there is increasing explicit concern with the size-distribution of incomes, particularly with respect to their high and low extremes. In developing economies, growth of output as the overriding goal of public policy has been subordinated to concern with the distribution of the benefits from growth, and particularly with the persistence of deep low end poverty. Since governments directly allocate anywhere from an eighth to a third of total output, increasing concern with income distribution carries with it, logically, increasing concern with the incidence of public activity in the distribution of income. As a consequence the need to estimate such incidence correctly is also increasing.

The special character of the intertemporal theory of production arises from more detailed specifications of technology, permitting more precise characterization of producer behavior. The most important specialization of technology results from introduction of capital as a factor of production. Although the central concepts of capital theory-capital assets, capital services, and investment are inessential to the development of the intertemporal theory of production, they provide additional structure that permits a much more detailed analysis of producer behavior. The present paper is not written with the intention of stemming this tide, which surely represents a wholesome reaction and response to current problems. It is grounded, however, in the strong feeling and insistent recollection of one participant observer that the intellectual enthusiasm for development in the fifties and early sixties reflected elements of real hopefulness that were then actually present in many developing countries. What was not correctly perceived was the precarious and transitory nature of that early hopeful and even exuberant phase.

The article focuses on the inequality of educational opportunity and its implication on social heritage. The article points out that there has been an indisputable reduction in the inequality of educational opportunity after World War II, along with a tremendous educational development. Educational equality has increased, slowly but steadily, in most Western industrial societies in the last decades. Educational equality is also the distribution of educational attainment in a population. The rate of increase of the number of university students is higher than the rate of increase of the number of high school students. Within a given socio-occupational category income is a monotonically increasing function of education. People of higher socio-occupational position are better-educated people. According to the article, an increase in educational development does not necessarily result in a decrease in economic inequality. It may be responsible for an increase in economic inequality, even in the case where the educational system is becoming more equalitarian.

This article examines welfare in Western industrial societies from the standpoint of convergence theory. It is empirical in approach and makes no attempt to deal with the conceptual and theoretical problems relating to convergence. Briefly, the aim of the article is to ascertain the extent to which Western industrial societies are similar, or in the course of development have become more similar, with regard to welfare. Convergence theory may be said to postulate that the imperatives of industrial technology and economic development constrain societies towards a common institutional pattern. If the essence of convergence theory is that the standardizing influences stemming from the nature of industrial technology are more influential in shaping institutions than ideology and political action, then welfare is a good area in which to examine this hypothesis. However, the "welfare state" is too wide a concept to be a viable tool for cross-national comparison. In this article a much narrower concept of welfare has been employed and the term is used to designate statutory programmes designed to provide citizens with social security and education.