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Population projections rely on one-sex renewal models. Consequently, changing the projection of male mortality does not affect the projection of birth, contradicting commonsense. A two-sex renewal model is presented in this paper to provide a better description of reproduction and more reasonable population projections. This model is nonlinear and includes the one-sex renewal models as special cases. In this model, age-specific birth rates are defined for two sexes jointly; total fertility, net reproduction rate, and intrinsic growth rate are also derived for two sexes jointly; and age-specific populations approach or converge to stable status. Applying the two-sex renewal model to Australia, it indicates that one-sex models underestimated the intrinsic growth rate by 14 percent. Compared to the results of one-sex models, the two-sex model would provide higher growth rate for low-fertility countries, and lower growth rate for high-fertility countries. In other words, the one-sex models are commonly biased. If the two-sex model is applied to all the countries, it would project smaller populations for the world in the future.

High school is a link between compulsory education and higher education in China. The precise projection of high-school population is also a key premise of the rational high-school educational-resource allocation which is of importance to educational quality. Improving the education quality can promote the population quality and increase the accumulation of human capital to create a new geographic dividend and contribute to the new development model of dual circulation. Encouraging governments at all levels to increase financial investment in education is a demand-side dimension to study the demand for high-school educational resources. When promoting human capital accumulation, China should transform the reliance of its economic growth from “demographic dividend” to “talent dividend” to build a new development model of dual circulation. This paper built a Leslie model by matrix laboratory (MATLAB) to predict the high-school population and study the demand for high-school educational resources.

Another year of observing the structure of the local Androsace albana population at the permanent plots laid in an alpine lichen heath in 2009 added a tenth calibrated matrix to the previous set of nine annual population projection matrices obtained from 10 observation years by means of a matrix model a year before. In the present study, the original concept of pattern-multiplicative averaging for nonnegative matrices leads to the average of ten matrices that retains the previous “disappointing survival forecast” of the local population, thus motivating its confirmation or refutation by the method of backward prediction. The technique is substantiated, and the corresponding computational apparatus is presented for backward prediction in matrix models of discrete-structured populations via reversing the time direction in the observation data. Applied to the A. albana data, the technique gives ten 1-year matrices of backward prediction; each predicts the increase in the local population if its prototype in the direct model prescribes the decline, and vice versa. Similarly, in contrast to the direct prediction, the final result of averaging backwardly predicts a population increase, thus confirming the consistency of the direct method.

Specific ethnocentric international migration processes can be observed in Hungary: a significant proportion of immigrants are of Hungarian ethnic background and come from neighboring countries. Similar processes can be observed between other kin-states and co-ethnic communities of Central and Eastern Europe, but this type of migration has not been studied intensively yet. The focus of the research is on the effects of this immigration on Hungarian society and the economy. Population projections were also carried out according to two research questions: “what would have happened if the immigrants had not arrived according to the processes that were experienced?” and “what will happen if the immigration process changes?” The research is based on the 2011 census data sets; the target group is the population born in neighboring countries that moved to Hungary after 1985. Results show that the ethnic Hungarian immigrant population has been a crucial human resource in Hungary. Without these immigrants, Hungary's demographic trends would also be less favorable. Moreover, in contrast to the situation typical of European immigrants, the socio-economic situation of the former is more favorable than of the host society. Potential decline of this immigration population could indeed be challenging.

The greenhouse gas (GHG) emission from the livestock sector is a major concern as GHG can contribute to climate change event such as global warming. The country demand for livestock is rapidly increasing, due to population and economic growth. However, in Malaysia, there is still limited studies on GHG assessment from the livestock sector and its projection based on the self-sufficient level under population growth. In this study, the GHG emissions of different livestock were estimated using the livestock population data published in the year 2010–2019, based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Malaysia’s livestock sector is dominated by poultry, swine, non-dairy cattle and goat. The emission is dependent on the livestock species and population. For enteric fermentation, non-dairy cattle accounted for 73.91% of the CH4 emission. For manure management, the main contributors were swine and poultry, accounting for 61.49% and 26.24% of the CH4 emission. Poultry and non-dairy cattle contributed to 63.25% and 20.79% of the direct N2O emission from manure management. Comparatively, enteric fermentation was observed to contribute for more than 50% share of the total CO2-eq emission. The GHG projection was carried out in two scenarios based on the population projection, self-sufficient level and product consumption per capita for the year 2019, 2030 and 2040. The scenario analysis showed that increasing the animal mass by 1% without increasing the livestock population could help in elevating the sufficiency level of food product even with increasing product demand.

Among-individual variation in vital rates, such as mortality and birth rates, exists in nearly all populations. Recent studies suggest that this individual heterogeneity produces substantial life-history and fitness differences among individuals, which in turn scale up to influence population dynamics. However, our ability to understand the consequences of individual heterogeneity is limited by inconsistencies across conceptual frameworks in the field. Studies of individual heterogeneity remain filled with contradicting and ambiguous terminology that introduces risks of misunderstandings, conflicting models and unreliable conclusions. Here, we synthesise the existing literature into a single and comparatively straightforward framework with explicit terminology and definitions. This work introduces a distinction between potential vital rates and realised vital rates to develop a coherent framework that maps directly onto mathematical models of individual heterogeneity. We suggest the terms "fixed condition" and "dynamic condition" be used to distinguish potential vital rates that are permanent from those that can change throughout an individual's life. To illustrate, we connect the framework to quantitative genetics models and to common classes of statistical models used to infer individual heterogeneity. We also develop a population projection matrix model that provides an example of how our definitions are translated into precise quantitative terms.

Background There are surprisingly few resources available which offer an introductory guide to preparing a national population projection using a cohort-component model. Many demography textbooks cover projections quite briefly, and many academic papers on projections focus on advanced technical issues. Aims The aim of this paper is to provide a short and accessible guide to producing a national-scale population projection using the cohort-component model. Data and methods The paper describes the cohort-component model from a population accounting perspective, presents all the necessary projection calculations, and covers the key steps which form part of the projections preparation process – from gathering input data to validating outputs. An accompanying Excel workbook implements the model and contains example projections for Australia. Conclusions Calculating a national population projection using a cohort-component model involves fairly simple algebra, but the broader projections preparation process is more complex, and requires careful consideration and judgement.

Palembang has abundant water sources; the city of Palembang is traversed by one of the longest rivers in Indonesia, the Musi River. However, population growth is increasing over time, as is the need for clean water. Projections of the amount of clean water demand in the future are needed; apart from anticipating water shortages, water demand projections are required to construct clean water facilities and infrastructure. This research was conducted using statistical calculations to calculate the population in the next ten years. The population of Palembang in 2030 is projected to increase to1,898,221 inhabitants. The results of this population projection are used in calculating the total water demand in 2030. The total water demand is obtained from the calculation of domestic, non-domestic, fire hydrant, and water loss needs. In 2030, the total amount of water needed is 6,816 L / second.

It is well known that accurate forecasts of mortality rates are essential to various demographic research like population projection, and the pricing of insurance products such as pensions and annuities. Recent studies suggest that mortality rates of multivariate ages are usually not leading indicators in mortality forecasting. Therefore, multivariate stochastic mortality models including the classic Lee–Carter may not necessarily lead to more accurate forecasts, compared with sophisticated univariate counterparties like the exponential smoothing state space (ETS) model. Despite its improved forecasting accuracy, the original ETS model cannot ensure the age-coherence of forecast mortality rates. By introducing an effective penalty scheme, we propose a penalized ETS model to significantly overcome this problem, with discussions on related technical issues including the reduction of parameter dimensionality and the selection of tuning parameter. Empirical results based on mortality rates of the Australian males and females suggest that the proposed model consistently outperforms the Lee–Carter and original ETS models. Robust conclusions are drawn when various forecasting scenarios are considered. Long-term forecasting analyses up to 2050 comparing the three models are further performed. To illustrate its usefulness in practice, an application to price fixed-term annuities with the penalized ETS model is demonstrated.

Por más de un millón de años, los seres humanos fueron cazadores y recolectores, los componentes demográficos, como la mortalidad y la fecundidad, tenían variables y tasas elevadas, por lo que la población se autorregulaba. Es allí, a causa del crecimiento demográfico durante generaciones y las emisiones de carbono, se realiza el acuerdo de parís, y con unión de varios países nace la Agenda 2030 para el Desarrollo Sostenible, que incluye 17 Objetivos y 169 metas. El objetivo de nuestra presente investigación es estimar la huella de carbono en la ciudad específicamente en la zona urbana, lugar donde se agrupa gran parte de su población total. Los métodos utilizados en este trabajo fueron cualitativo, cuantitativo, deductivo y lógico. En la zona urbana de Manta, con un 6.42% margen de error, se determinaron 232 familias encuestadas, el cual se realizó un escrutinio por cada familia para determinar la estimación aproximada en un mes. Si bien es cierto un factor muy importante en nuestro trabajo de investigación, fue el determinar el número de habitantes en la zona urbana de ciudad de Manta, y con ello realizar una proyección hasta el año 2050, el cual optamos por escoger el método de proyección polinómica para estipular una proyección poblacional. Podemos decir en conclusión que el aumento de la huella de carbono crecerá aún más por la demanda poblacional prevista en ese lapso de tiempo, dando un total para el año 2050 de 56,272 toneladas de co2 emitidos por los habitantes.

One of the most important duties of urbanism is to meet the basic needs of people. The need for shelter takes a significant place among the basic needs of people. Urban populations, which are increasing very rapidly nowadays, have made urban development a non-negligible situation. Urban planning should be done by ensuring urban development and without losing the city identity, and a regular development strategy should be adopted according to objective criteria in order to manage the available resources correctly. In this study, the 100-year urban development of Sivas city center was examined with the Geographical Information System (GIS) by considering historic buildings and population projection, and the relationship between housing in the city in this process and implementary zoning plans was investigated.

Political decision-making related to future challenges, for example in the fields of medical care, the housing market or education highly depend on valid estimates of the future population size and structure. However, such developments are usually heterogeneous throughout a country making subnational projections necessary. It is well-known that these regional differences are highly influenced by both internal and external migration processes. In this paper, we investigate the consequences of different migration assumptions on regional development in Germany using a spatial dynamic microsimulation. We find that migration assumptions have a strong direct influence on the future population and composition at the regional level and, therefore, require special attention. Depending on the scenario selected, very different socio-demographic trends may emerge in specific districts or even district types. We also demonstrate that migration assumptions affect non-demographic indicators such as the participation rate, albeit to a lesser extent. The findings are relevant to understanding the sensitivity of population projections to migration assumptions both on the national and regional level. This also paves the way to analyze how potential political interventions behave under those assumed future migration processes.

Population census data has become more pervasive to lives which has demanded for increase in scope, completeness, accuracy and validity, and improve on their national value and international comparability. The accuracy of population projections has been attracting more attention, driven by concerns about the possible long-term effects of aging and other demographic trends. This paper therefore, attempt to improve on the manual way of managing census data by developing an automated census data management system. This system in addition, is capable of projecting population growth using exponential growth equation. The National Population Commission, Benin City was used as a case study.

Energy and sanitation are key factors to ensure economic development and quality of life for any nation’s population. These are challenges for less developed nations such as Benin, located in West Africa. Sewage treatment plants with biogas energy recovery present an opportunity for this country to overcome both problems. The present study aims to foster biogas development and the sanitation sector in Benin. More specifically, the goal is to evaluate energy potential and economic viability for anaerobic biogas energy generation in generators located in ten Beninese cities. In order to do so, a population projection was carried out for each city, followed by estimates for biogas production and, subsequently, calculating energy potential and economic viability. Reactor implementation costs were weighed separately in order to see the impact when included. In addition to developing sanitation in the country, the studied projects could supply up to 2% of the energy imported during 2016. In economic terms, the projects were unfeasible when considering the reactor implementation costs. A mandatory energy rate would have to be paid by the population to ensure enterprises a return on their investment. The results obtained furthered discussions on alternatives for Benin’s energy and sanitation sectors and can be used for future research and decision making.

In 2017, Pakistan implemented a long-awaited population census since the last one conducted in 1998. However, several experts are contesting the validity of the census data at the sub-national level, in the absence of a post-enumeration survey. We propose in this paper to use demographic analysis to assess the quality of the 2017 census at the sub-national level, using the 1998 census data and all available intercensal surveys. Applying the cohort-component method of population projection, we subject each six first-level subnational entities for which data are available to estimates regarding the level of fertility, mortality, international, and internal migration. We arrive at similar results as the census at the national level: an estimated 212.4 million compared to 207.7 million counted (2.3% difference). However, we found more variations at the sub-national level.

The permit of two million tons of rice import in 2018 has tickled Indonesia's ability to fulfill its own rice needs. Farmers' anxiety that rice import can affect rice prices proved by its declining. The distribution of imported rice indeed has not been optimal. People say that imports are carried out without proper planning. This study aims to estimate the rice production and consumption data of Indonesia in 2014 to 2019, compare those data, and conclude whether Indonesia needs to import the rice at those years based on the comparison result. Estimating rice production and consumption were carried out using secondary data consisted of paddy production data, per capita rice consumption data, and population projection data which obtained from the website of the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) and/or the Ministry of Agriculture. Based on the comparison result between rice production and consumption data from 2014 to 2019, it can be concluded that from 7 islands in Indonesia, only 2 islands have the estimated rice consumption which always more than the estimated production, namely Maluku and Papua. The total estimated rice consumption in Indonesia is always lower than the estimated production. A rice surplus on a nearby island, Sulawesi, should be able to cover shortages in Maluku and Papua. If the estimated rice consumption in these three islands is totaled, the amount is always smaller than the estimated rice production in these three islands. This is because the production of rice on the island of Sulawesi is very large. The estimated total consumption of rice in 2019 is only 60% of production.

A água é um recurso indispensável para a vida e necessária para o desenvolvimento humano e funcionamento de atividades econômicas. Em virtude da distância e não potabilidade das fontes, através de sistemas de abastecimento o recurso é captado, tratado e distribuído para consumo final nos municípios. Nesse processo, vazamentos nas infraestruturas resultam em perdas e desperdício de um recurso cada dia mais escasso, cuja demanda é naturalmente pressionada pela expansão demográfica. No Sistema Integrado de Abastecimento de Água de Feira de Santana, localizado no semiárido baiano, apesar da escassez hídrica estrutural da região, verificam-se perdas na distribuição de 49% do volume após tratamento, comprometendo o atendimento e elevando custos do serviço. Considerando a projeção populacional estimada pelos órgãos estaduais de estatística, o trabalho analisa a disponibilidade de água para atendimento aos municípios inseridos no Sistema simulando hipóteses relacionadas a redução de perdas na distribuição em cenários de manutenção e aumento da demanda. Os resultados evidenciam a já presente insuficiência para atendimento à população e a imperiosa necessidade de melhoria nos níveis de eficiência da prestadora responsável, a Embasa.

Normal newborn care is an action that must be done immediately by labor assistants and parents who aim to prevent complications as early as possible because newborns tend to be sensitive to changes in the surrounding environment including air, temperature, etc., including exposure to various diseases. Besides the nutritional needs of infants also differ in terms of the amount and frequency of administration. The population projection according to the National Development Planning Agency in 2010-2035, Indonesia's population in 2010 reached 238.52 million, with a birth rate of 5 million, and a death rate of 1.52 people. According to the Indonesian Health Profile (2017), exclusive breastfeeding coverage is 54.0%, while for East Java, exclusive breastfeeding coverage is 48.1% and in the city of Jember 58%, for umbilical cord care that is not given anything at 33.6 %, 63.3% were treated with alcohol or betadine, 0.7% were administered with sowing drugs, and 2.3% were given traditional medicine. The process of starting breastfeeding nationally is done at the age of 0-24 months, the initiation of early breastfeeding in less than one hour is 34.5%, which starts 1-6 hours 35.2%, starts 7-24 hours 3.7%. While for East Java, early breastfeeding initiation which started in less than one hour was 33.3%, 1-6 hours started in 33.5%, started in 7-23 hours was 3.3%, which started in 24-47 hours are 15.3% and those that start more than 48 hours are 14.7%. The purpose of this study was to determine the ability of mother to care for normal newborn babies before and after demonstrations learning methods were given. Analytic observational research design, with one group pre test-post test approach, with a population of mothers who have newborns until the age of 28 days, a total of 20 people with acidental sampling techniques, measuring instruments used questionnaires and checklist.The results showed of the study found that there were significant difference between the results of the first and second ability measurements in the learning group with the demonstration method, with a p-value of 0,000, 95% Cl -7,904 - -2,696. This demonstation learning methods is very effective to improve the ability of mothers to care for their babies, all mothers both who already have a baby are important to prepare the din to prepare the ability to care for a new baby well, so that with the ability to care for it, will increase bounding with the baby.

Accurate forecasts of mortality rates are essential to various types of demographic research such as population projection, and the pricing of insurance products such as pensions and annuities. Recent studies have considered a spatial temporal autoregressive (STAR) model for the mortality surface, where mortality rates for each age depend (temporally) on their historical values as well as (spatiality) on those of neighboring age cohorts. This model has sound statistical properties including cointegrated dependent variables and the existence of closed‐form solutions. Despite its improved forecasting performance over the famous Lee–Carter (LC) model, the constraint that only the effects of the same and neighboring cohorts are significant can be too restrictive. In this study, we adopt a data‐driven adaptive weighted structure and propose the adaptive STAR (ASTAR) model. Retaining all the desirable features of the STAR, our model uniformly outperforms the LC and STAR counterparts in terms of forecasting accuracy, when mortality data for ages 0–100 from the UK, France, Italy, Spain, and Japan over the period 1950–2016 are considered. Two sensitivity tests and additional simulation results also lead to robust conclusions. The proposed ASTAR model could therefore be a widely useful tool for modeling and forecasting mortality rates in other contexts, and may be extended to multipopulation modeling.

In a first-ever nation-wide census tract evaluation, we assess the accuracy of the Hamilton–Perry population projection method for 65,221 census tracts. We started with 73,607 census tracts but eliminated those for which zeros appeared in age/sex groups. The test uses 1990 and 2000 census tract data by age and gender to construct cohort change ratios, which are then applied to 2000 census tract data to generate 2010 Hamilton–Perry projections that are evaluated in an ex post facto test against the reported 2010 census tract data by age and gender. The projections include: (1) uncontrolled age and gender projections; and (2) age and gender projections controlled to a projection of the population total by census tract. Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) is used to evaluate precision and Mean Algebraic Percent Error (MALPE) is used to evaluate bias. We find that controlling the Hamilton–Perry projections by age for each tract to the linearly projected total population of each tract reduces both MAPE and MALPE within age groups by gender and for total females and total males. As this result suggests, simple linear extrapolation provides more accurate projections of the total population than does the Hamilton–Perry Method. However, even with controlling we find the Hamilton–Perry projections by age to be biased upward. Finally, we use MAPE-R (MAPE- Revised) to evaluate the effect of extreme outliers and find that high MAPEs in the uncontrolled projections are largely driven by extreme errors (outliers) found in less than 1 percent of the 65,221 census tracts used in the study.

В статье произведена оценка вклада миграции в изменение численности и возрастной структуры населения различных типов муниципальных образований Республики Башкортостан. Среди таких типов выделены ядра (промышленные и образовательные центры, притягивающие человеческий капитал), тяготеющие к ядрам муниципалитеты, численность населения которых растет за счет влияния ядер (пригородные территории), а также периферийные районы, миграция из которых в пределы Уфимской и Южно-Башкортостанской агломераций носит безвозвратный характер. На первом этапе выполнен ретроспективный прогноз для представителей трех выделенных типов муниципальных образований на период 2008-2018 гг. Согласно его результатам наибольший выигрыш миграция принесла не ядрам, а тяготеющим к ним пригородным муниципальным образованиям, что отразилось в приросте численности их населения практически во всех возрастных группах, но прежде всего населения предпенсионного и пенсионного возраста. На втором этапе проведено сценарное прогнозирование численности населения муниципальных образований на период до 2029 г. Выделены четыре сценария развития миграционной ситуации. Результаты прогнозирования указывают на то, что прирост численности населения ядер агломераций и их пригородных территорий возможен только за счет продолжения миграционного притока, который, однако, не окажет значительного влияния на возрастную структуру. В то же время периферийные муниципальные районы, продолжая терять население, значительно «постареют». Таким образом, развитие ядер и пригородных территорий тесно сопряжено с потерей демографического потенциала отдающими население периферийными территориями. В результате в среднесрочной перспективе в Республике Башкортостан ожидается замедление прироста численности населения центров агломераций.

Population census is an important moment of the realization of the unification of data from registration data generated by the Population and Civil Registry Office and projection data from the Central Statistics Agency. Based on the description above, the following problems can be formulated: How Important is the Population Administration Regarding One Line Population Census in Pertima Village, Karangasem District, Karangasem Regency? What are the obstacles and efforts to implement an online census in Pertima Village, Karangasem District, Karangasem Regency? In this study, the research method used was interviews, literature study by reading literature related to population censuses, observations and field research, where research was conducted by jumping directly into Pertima Village. The results showed that online population administration is very important, namely: providing data on the number, composition, distribu- tion, and characteristics of Pertima Village residents according to de facto and de jure towards the Indonesian Population Data. Second, namely providing demographic parameters and population projections (fertility, mortality, and migration), as well as other population characteristics for the purposes of population projection and various indicators of Sustainable Development Targets (SDGs). The obstacle faced in population data collection is the difficulty of logging online popu- lation censuses, internet network constraints, people who are still technologically unfamiliar. To overcome this problem is done by giving socialization to village officials so that they can guide their citizens to the online census. Utilizing a cellphone that has Androi facilities so that it can access the internet with speed.

Significance Migration is one of the most controversial political topics in industrialized countries. One important aspect is population aging and the prospects of a shrinking labor force in case of low or no immigration. We address this aspect systematically through multidimensional microsimulations for all European Union (EU) member states. The outcome variables considered go beyond the conventional old-age dependency ratios by also studying labor-force dependency ratios and the introduced productivity-weighted labor-force dependency ratio. We consider a wide range of future migration scenarios differing by volume, educational selectivity of migrants, and labor market integration efforts. Combined with alternative scenarios of labor-force participation for the EU-born population, the findings provide scientific insights for future migration and labor policies in Europe., This paper provides a systematic, multidimensional demographic analysis of the degree to which negative economic consequences of population aging can be mitigated by changes in migration and labor-force participation. Using a microsimulation population projection model accounting for 13 individual characteristics including education and immigration-related variables, we built scenarios of future changes in labor-force participation, migration volumes, and their educational composition and speed of integration for the 28 European Union (EU) member states. We study the consequences in terms of the conventional age-dependency ratio, the labor-force dependency ratio, and the productivity-weighted labor-force dependency ratio using education as a proxy of productivity, which accounts for the fact that not all individuals are equality productive in society. The results show that in terms of the more sophisticated ratios, population aging looks less daunting than when only considering age structure. In terms of policy options, lifting labor-force participation among the general population as in Sweden, and education-selective migration if accompanied by high integration, could even improve economic dependency. On the other hand, high immigration volumes combined with both low education and integration leads to increasing economic dependency. This shows the high stakes involved with integration outcomes under high migration volumes.

The study aimed to assess the potential of using Remote Sensing (RS) da-ta to evaluate the changes of urban green spaces in Lagos, Nigeria. Land-sat Thematic Mapper and Landsat 8 (Operational Land Imager) data pair of May 4, 1986, December 12, 2002 and January 1, 2019 covering Lagos Government Authority (LGA) were used for this study. Supervised image classification technique using Maximum Likelihood Classifier (MLC) was used to create base map which was then used for ground truthing. Ran-dom Forest (RF) classification technique using RF classifier was utilized in this study to generate the final land use land cover map. RF is an en-semble learning method for classification that operates by constructing a multitude of decision trees at training time and outputting the class that is the mode of the classes (classification). Lagos census population data was also used in this study to model population projection. Extrapolation of the model was used to predict data for the years, 2020 and 2040. Re-sults of the study revealed a reduction of urban green spaces due to agri-culture and settlement. While the remote mapping revealed the gradual dispersion of ecosystem degradation indicators spread across the state, there exists clusters of areas vulnerable to environmental hazards across Lagos. To mitigate these risks, the paper offered recommendations rang-ing from the need for effective policy to green planning education for city managers, developers and risk assessment. These measures will go a long way in helping sustainability and management of land resources in Lagos.

The age profile of immigration to Australia can be altered by public policies. This article applies a method of valuing long term population paths in order to evaluate alternative immigrant age profiles based on a proxy indicator of living standards over time for Australia. Results show that the variation in value of the population path follows an inverted U-shape by immigrant's age. The strength of preference between immigrants aged 20–29 years and older working age immigrants reduces as the social discount rate increases. Higher life expectancy and lower fertility accentuate preference for younger working age immigrants.

This study is aimed at assessing current and future potable water demand and supply at the Federal University of Technology, Akure (FUTA), Nigeria. The only source of water to the University community is ground water extracted through boreholes constructed at different locations in the University. Eighteen (18) storage and distribution reservoirs were assessed to assess their capacity to adequately supply water for the present and future population of students and staff within the institution. FUTA had a population of 28,419 in 2019, the staff made up 9.16% of the total population while the students constituted the remaining 90.84%. A 30-year population projection was made for both staff and students using the geometric increase method of population forecasting. The study revealed that the population of FUTA will grow to 62,280 persons in 2049 from 28,419 in 2019 assuming a constant growth rate of 2.65% while the current average daily water demand of the University community is 1,475.83 m3/day. The current yield of water from the boreholes in FUTA is 1,198.07 m3/day which is not sufficient to meet the daily water demands of the University community. The maximum possible yield from the boreholes is 2,443.68 m3/day under normal conditions involving stable power supply and adequate personnel. Furthermore, it is projected that by the year 2049, the average daily water demand of the University community would be 2,995.74 m3/day. The outcome of this study revealed that there is water shortage in FUTA and the situation would worsen as the years go by if adequate measures are not put in place. The construction of a dam and water treatment plant is recommended to meet the increasing water demands occasioned by increase in population .Keywords – Potable, water, demand, supply, boreholes

Population has a direct impact on the demands of consumption, resource, and employment. Population factors, such as size and growth rate, are crucial in making decisions and plans of trade, environment protection, resource allocation and human resource development. Thus, population projection is an essential part of strategy development for companies as well as governments, and draws the attention of many researchers. Some projection methods have been developed, but most of the popular ones require a vast knowledge in demography and only can be operated by skilled professionals. In this paper, as an improvement, we theoretically develop a regression model and a subtrend model of WASD (weights and structure determination) neural network in a simultaneous manner to make population projections especially of Germany in the midterm and near future. Specifically, we aim at utilizing the learning capabilities of the WASD neural-network models with single input and multiple inputs, having been very popular recently, to propose these easy-used and high accuracy models for verifications and projections via later computer experiments.

This research portrays the spatial and temporal progression of super-aging in regions throughout South Korea. Using a single-year population projection considering gross domestic migration, this research identifies which regions will shortly become a super-aged society. A cohort-component method with a migrant pool model is applied. The county-level national population registration data (2000–2018) are aggregated into 37 regions for the model run. In 2020, 16 rural regions will become super-aged societies. By 2029, all 37 regions, including the metropolitan areas, will join the group, with Sejong, the administrative capital, being the last to enter. In brief, the rural areas become super-aged earlier than the metropolitan areas, and within a decade, those 65 years old or older will make up the majority of the national population. Among all the metropolitan areas, Busan, the largest harbor city, will be the first to be super-aged in 2023. Sejong will experience the most radical change between 2020 and 2050. The research outcomes demonstrate that demographic changes in the rural and metropolitan areas are different; hence, the recent population policies, such as promoting fertility, may not work in the rural areas as they have already lost their population momentum due to the extreme and on-going urbanization throughout the nation. The unstoppable aging will pose adverse effects on future citizens (who are mostly senior) both financially and medically. An increase in health care expenditure and a nationwide blood shortage for transfusion are anticipated, for example.

Population issues are critical to national development, social stability and resource allocation. Policy-makers hope to Figure out population factors such as birth rate, size, and demographic structure to make policies that are conducive to longterm development of a country. Therefore, population projection has always been highly valued by many government workers and scholars. Compared with other traditional population projection methods, the weights and structure determination (WASD) neuronet does not require a vast knowledge of demography to achieve excellent performance. In this work, we substantiate the WASD neuronet by numerical experiments, which show the excellent performance of the WASD neuronet. Then, we make short-term and mid-term projections of Germany population and also make comparisons with other mainstream population projection methods. Finally, this paper presents a reasonable tendency of Germany population, i.e., declining slightly in near future but growing gently in one decade.

La lengua maya yucateca es una de las lenguas mayenses que actualmente se habla en los estados mexicanos de Campeche, Quintana Roo y Yucatán, así como en los distritos norteños de Belice tales como Corozal. Una vez que el área fue ocupada por los españoles, el español fue introducido en el siglo XVI coexistiendo con el maya yucateco durante toda la era colonial. Sin embargo, la proporción de mayahablantes ha decrecido durante los años recientes. Método: En esta investigación, modelamos la competencia entre maya yucateco y español utilizando las ecuaciones diferenciales de Minett-Wang con tres enfoques principales de preprocesamiento de los datos: un enfoque directo, un enfoque generacional y un enfoque geográfico, ajustando los parámetros de los modelos mediante Descenso de Gradiente + Momentum con los datos históricos provistos por los censos y encuestas intercensales del Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI) de los estados de Campeche, Quintana Roo y Yucatán desde 1930 hasta 2015. Las proyecciones poblacionales de los estados se realizaron mediante el modelo logístico. Resultados: En casi todos los enfoques se observó que la lengua maya yucateca tiende a la desaparición. El uso combinado de los enfoques directo y geográfico muestran que el maya yucateco se extinguirá en 2285 (en Felipe Carrillo Puerto-Tulum), 2390 en Campeche (en Calkiní) y finalmente en 2524 en Yucatán (en los municipios del sur y este). Sin embargo, existen dos casos donde la coexistencia es posible: Mayapán y Tahdziú. Discusión: El modelo de Minett-Wang describió adecuadamente un escenario incierto sobre competencia lingüística, dado que la lengua maya yucateca aún es numéricamente importante en la Península de Yucatán. Las zonas oriente-sur de Yucatán, centro de Quintana Roo y norte de Campeche tienen una mayor resistencia a la sustitución lingüística, pero las estimaciones paramétricas realizadas muestran que esta lengua tiende a un escenario de extinción en la mayoría de los municipios de México. Son necesarias las medidas pertinentes para minimizar este panorama en términos de políticas lingüísticas y realizar nuevas estimaciones con los resultados de los censos siguientes para actualizar los parámetros del modelo y monitorear el decaimiento del número de mayahablantes.

Increasing of population will effect to economic development that need the appropriation of lands for settlement, industry, infrastructure and service. Purposes of this research were to project population on 2018 and 2030; analyze land use change on period 2006-2018 and 2018-2030; analyze correlation between population with agriculture area and population with settlement area. Analysis of land use change was obtained by overlapping multitemporal land use maps. Regression approach was used to project population on 2018 and 2030; correlate between population with agriculture area and population with settlement area. The Result showed that 48% of villages which its population projection based on saturation model and 52% based on exponential model. Increasing rate of Agriculture area and settlement were 1,48%/12 years and 0,86%/12 years, respectively. Correlation between population with agriculture area were linier with R2 = 0, 7167 (2006); 0, 6343 (2018) and 0, 5082 (2030). Correlation between population with settlement were linier with R2 = 0, 7168 (2006); 0, 7312 (2018) and 0,568 (2030). Dynamical of R2 values showed contributory influence of population factor in increasing of agriculture area and settlement area.

Deux principaux systèmes d’élevage bovin cohabitent dans le bassin de la Donga au nord du Bénin : l’élevage semi-sédentaire et l’élevage mobile. Ce bassin, situé dans la zone agroécologique subhumide de l’Afrique de l’Ouest, a subi ces dernières décennies deux changements majeurs : a) une augmentation des besoins en produits animaux et b) l’expansion des terres cultivées qui entraîne une diminution de l’accès aux ressources fourragères et à l’eau, une plus grande mobilité des troupeaux, et des conflits plus fréquents entre cultivateurs et éleveurs mobiles. Face à ces contraintes, les pouvoirs publics privilégient la sédentarisation des éleveurs mobiles. L’élevage mobile étant pourvoyeur de jeunes animaux aux élevages semi-sédentaires, la dynamique de sédentarisation crée une incertitude quant à l’approvisionnement de la région en bétail bovin et en viande par un élevage semi-sédentaire qui deviendrait largement majoritaire. Pour appréhender la question de besoins croissants en produits animaux, la production de bétail a été simulée afin d’évaluer l’effet d’une incitation des pouvoirs publics à la sédentarisation des éleveurs mobiles. Les productivités numérique et en viande ont été simulées sous différentes hypothèses d’amélioration des performances zootechniques des élevages semi-sédentaires. L’ensemble des scénarios ont été construits à partir de l’hypothèse de l’augmentation du cheptel semi-sédentaire directement liée à la sédentarisation d’une partie des éleveurs mobiles. Une simulation obtenue à l’aide du modèle de projection démographique Dynmod suggère que la sédentarisation des éleveurs mobiles romprait la complémentarité locale entre les systèmes d’élevage et conduirait à une perte de production de viande. En outre, aucun des scénarios d’amélioration explorés ne suffirait à compenser la perte de production de viande résultant de la politique de sédentarisation. Pour maintenir la production de viande bovine par les éleveurs semi-sédentaires il faudrait développer les liens commerciaux régionaux avec les élevages des pays sahéliens.

Population projection models, such as matrix and integral projection models, are used increasingly to understand potential effects of anthropogenic stressors and inform conservation actions. However, vital rate and life history information needed to create robust population models is often missing or incomplete, making assumptions about parameters and population processes necessary. Understanding how assumptions affect results is critical, particularly if the study will be used to guide policy or management actions. I review published amphibian population projection models to determine whether model output is evaluated with population data, what assumptions are made, and whether sensitivity analyses are performed. I found that only 21% of published models were evaluated with population data, and most models (67%) were explored with sensitivity analyses. I then simulated the effects of four assumptions and varying population carrying capacities on model output and sensitivity results using existing matrix population models from three amphibian species with different life histories: Anaxyrus boreas, Lithobates sylvaticus, and Ambystoma maculatum. Simulations showed that changes in model output and sensitivity analyses under different assumptions depended more on the species examined than the assumption implemented. There were changes in which parameters model output was most sensitive to under all assumptions examined for all species, suggesting caution when using results if there is great uncertainty about model assumptions. Models and their parameterization should be regularly updated with new information to ensure conservation biologists are using the most robust information on potential outcomes of threats and conservation actions.

With the effect of population decline in rural areas and concentration of population into large cities, the risks of local extinction have a great...

The period between the two census is estimated by scholars who are supportive of demography. In many areas of the world, where census cannot be done, population information is done on the basis of projection. Sometimes it happens that some part of the country gets disturbed due to some reason or census cannot be done due to security reasons, then in such a situation the population is obtained on the basis of population projection. Sometimes there are some figures of the population, which are needed only in the medium term. Projection of this type of data is also done on the basis of previous population. In case of lost, destroyed or stolen census data, the population is obtained on the basis of projected population. Population projection is essential for future policy planning. Prof. Hazanal (1971) says, "No matter how many shortcomings are in the projection, neither is it better to have some data or not." But we can compare our situation with that of a hunter who only consults a magician before going hunting in the unknown forest.

Inclusion of additional dimensions to population projections can lead to an improvement in the overall quality of the projections and to an enhanced analytical potential of derived projections such as literacy skills and labor force participation. This paper describes the modeling of educational attainment of a microsimulation projection model of the European Union countries. Using ordered logistic regressions on five waves of the European Social Survey, we estimate the impact of mother's education and other sociocultural characteristics on educational attainment and implement them into the microsimulation model. Results of the different projection scenarios are contrasted to understand how the education of the mother and sociocultural variables may affect projection outcomes. We show that a change in the impact of mother's education on children's educational attainment may have a big effect on future trends. Moreover, the proposed approach yields more consistent population projection outputs for specific subpopulations.

The life history and fitness of Nilaparvata lugens being reared under ambient level (current CO2 concentration), medially elevated (550 µL/L) and highly elevated (750 µL/L) CO2 concentration for lo...

Water is a basic requirement that is needed by living things. Water is also need in every household, agricultural, economic, and industrial. A common problem that we faced today is the consumption of water continues to increase in line with population growth, while diminishing water resources in terms of quality and quantity. To calculate the water needs, a study be required on population projections and projected water requirements in the future. In this study, the calculation of the water demand consist of calculation of domestic water needs (household), calculation of non-domestic water needs (municipal), and calculation of industrial water needs. The projection method used in this study is Mathematical Logistic Curve Method. Based on calculations that have been done, population of Tasikmalaya in 2025 are 668,281 peoples, water demand of Tasikmalaya in 2025 is 2,100 liters/sec, and the water avaibility of Tasikmalaya in 2025 is 944.18 liters/sec. Avaibility less than requirement, so there is a water deficit 1,155.82 liters/sec.

The work was funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (Standard Research Grant NE/H007466/1) and donations from Evan Fountain (In Memoriam donations for Issy Fountain) and Mike Matthewson. Marine vertebrates show a diversity of migration strategies, including sex differences. This may lead to differential demography, but the consequences of such between-sex variation are little understood. Here, we studied the migration of known-sex northern gannets Morus bassanus — a partial migrant with females ~8 % heavier than males. We used geolocators to determine wintering areas of 49 breeding adults (19 females and 30 males during 2010 to 2014) from 2 colonies in the northeast Atlantic (Bass Rock and Grassholm, UK). We also tested for sex-specific survival probabilities using capture−mark−recapture methods (n = 72 individuals Bass Rock, n = 229 individuals Grassholm; 2010−2018) and applied sex-specific population projection matrices (PPMs) to quantify population-level effects. Tracked gannets wintered in a range of large marine ecosystems (LMEs): Canary Current LME (CCLME; 69 %), Celtic-Biscay Shelf LME (16 %), Iberian Coastal LME (8 %), North Sea LME (4 %) or Mediterranean LME (2 %). Migratory destination differed between the sexes: 90 % of females vs. 57 % of males wintered in the CCLME. Survival was similar between the sexes at Bass Rock (mean ± 95 % CI = 0.951 ± 0.053 and 0.956 ± 0.047 for females and males, respectively). At Grassholm, there was evidence of slight sex differences in breeder survival: females had lower annual survival (0.882 ± 0.040) than males (0.946 ± 0.026). At Bass Rock, PPMs with no sex effect best fitted the observed population increase (1994−2014). Sex-specific PPMs fitted the population estimates for Grassholm (1995−2015). Our results reveal that female gannets are more likely to travel further than males to winter in the CCLME. This difference is unlikely due to morphological differences, unlike in other bird species. However, the reason for slightly higher over-winter female mortality at Grassholm is unclear. Publisher PDF

Projecting population in a local community is especially important to deliver public good provisions such as health services, education and social security. In addition to the size of the population and its age distribution, sex and location are also of importance for understanding needs and developing future infrastructure plans and growth policies. The projection of labour force growth is particularly important as labour is one of the primary inputs of economic production. This study aims to project the distribution of the future Australian population and its detailed characteristics. We analyse the projection of labour force growth in Australia and the proportion of people born outside the country, both at the district level, as examples of the model’s capability and applications. The microsimulation model used is designed to capture a detailed picture of the demographic evolution of the Australian population given current population trends, while also enabling us to understand the spatial distribution of migrants among the future Australian population. We validate our projections by making comparisons with recently released census data from 2016. The validation procedures we use show that our model has managed to not only project the population for sub-state/territory regions but also its age distribution as well as whether a person was born outside Australia. However, although our projection of the total size of the labour force produces reasonably accurate results, we found that estimates of the growth of the labour force were not as reliable, as the model was unable to capture the current negative growth of the labour force that is reflected in recent census data.

Spatio-temporal land-use land-cover changes have a long-term impact on urban environments. The present study is based on land-use land-cover changes and urban expansion of megacity Kolkata and its environs over three decades (1991–2018) using multitemporal Landsat data. The study aims to explore and explain the spatio-temporal land-use land-cover change, areal differentiation, spatio-temporal urban growth trajectory and future land-use land-cover prediction with population projection. The spatio-temporal representation found rapid urbanization, i.e. 19% to 57%, exactly three times as in 1991, resulting in significant loss of other than urban/built-up area. Urban trajectory reveals that the expansion mainly occurred in north-east to south-west direction, the zone of both sides of River Hooghly. Areal differentiation map with highest urbanization (3146 ha or UII = 0.64) was identified in the north–north-west part, while least urbanization was identified in the east–north-east direction. On the other hand, this urbanization has grabbed most (i.e. 87%) of the areas within 5-km ring buffer compared to other three ring buffers. Being Kolkata as a traditional city, it has all modern facilities since British rule; as a result, the high population growth and rapid urban expansion were explored in the study. Therefore, urban growth led to radical changes in land-use land-cover, which were witnessed by sharp decreases in sparse vegetation and fallow land. The correlation explained that increasing urbanization has decreased the amount of water body and vegetation. The future prediction graph identified the more horrible picture: the city and its environs will be covered by 67% built-up, while there will be only 3% water body, 14% vegetation and 16% fallow land of the total geographical area with a population (projection) of 28 million in 2051 if it is continued. Such expansion will create a wide range of mismanagement and environmental problems. Hence, the intensive explanation and areal differentiation maps and diagrams prepared using geospatial data will definitely help to understand the urban growth dynamics process and changing form of land-use land-cover and simultaneously decision-making process of the local planners, stakeholders and academicians. Therefore, it also guides to future planning to decrease the adverse effects of urbanization and result in the form of land-use land-cover and makes an eco-friendly megacity as well as sustainable urban development too.

One of the most critical tasks in creating community plans and developing local planning policies and priorities is projecting populations, as accurate projections help communities appropriately distribute resources and services. While inaccurate population projections are problematic and have long-term and lasting effects for all cities, they are especially problematic in depopulating cities where the tax burden is shared among fewer residents – a large-scale public works project, a new convention center, more housing, or the annexation of land can further burden residents and strain public resources. This research examines how (and if) cities are using population projection data to guide their plans for the future, and if it varies between cities that are losing residents and cities that are gaining residents. Population projections are examined from 41 depopulating and 41 populating US cities. Levels of accuracy in the population projections are compared, along with other population change sensitive variables such as land use, housing, and vacancy. The findings indicated that population projection errors are present in both depopulating and populating cities. However, most depopulating cities anticipate growth, despite data to the contrary. This research also found that land area expansion in depopulating cities is not sensitive to population loss, and that there is a significant time-lag between population peak and land and housing unit peaks. This suggests that depopulating cities respond slowly to population decline. This research aims to underscore the importance of accurate population projections and their role in informing planning strategies and resource allocation, in depopulating cities specifically.

Despite a global footprint of shifts in flowering phenology in response to climate change, the reproductive consequences of these shifts are poorly understood. Furthermore, it is unknown whether altered flowering times affect plant population viability. We examine whether climate change-induced earlier flowering has consequences for population persistence by incorporating reproductive losses from frost damage (a risk of early flowering) into population models of a subalpine sunflower (Helianthella quinquenervis). Using long-term demographic data for three populations that span the species’ elevation range (8–15 years, depending on the population), we first examine how snowmelt date affects plant vital rates. To verify vital rate responses to snowmelt date experimentally, we manipulate snowmelt date with a snow removal experiment at one population. Finally, we construct stochastic population projection models and Life Table Response Experiments for each population. We find that populations decline (λs

China implemented the two-child policy in 2016, however, potential impacts of this new policy on its population reality have not been adequately understood. Using population census data and 1% population sampling data during the period of 1982–2015, this study develops a fertility simulation model to explore the effects of the two-child policy on women’s total fertility rate, and employs Cohort Component Method in population projections to examine China’s demographic future with different fertility regimes. The fertility simulation results reveal that the two-child policy will make significantly positive effects on China’s total fertility rate through increasing second births, leading to a sharp but temporary increase in the first 5 years after the implementation of the new policy. In addition, population projections using simulated total fertility rates show that the Chinese population would reach its peak value around the middle 2020s and be faced with the reduction of labor force supply and rapid aging process, featured with remarkable increases in both size and share of the elderly population. The findings suggest that the two-child policy would undoubtedly affect China’s fertility rates and demographic future; however, the effects are mild and temporary.