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Forecasting human capital of EU member countries accounting for sociocultural determinants
- Source :
- Journal of Demographic Economics. 85:231-269
- Publication Year :
- 2019
- Publisher :
- Cambridge University Press (CUP), 2019.
-
Abstract
- Inclusion of additional dimensions to population projections can lead to an improvement in the overall quality of the projections and to an enhanced analytical potential of derived projections such as literacy skills and labor force participation. This paper describes the modeling of educational attainment of a microsimulation projection model of the European Union countries. Using ordered logistic regressions on five waves of the European Social Survey, we estimate the impact of mother's education and other sociocultural characteristics on educational attainment and implement them into the microsimulation model. Results of the different projection scenarios are contrasted to understand how the education of the mother and sociocultural variables may affect projection outcomes. We show that a change in the impact of mother's education on children's educational attainment may have a big effect on future trends. Moreover, the proposed approach yields more consistent population projection outputs for specific subpopulations.
- Subjects :
- Economics and Econometrics
education.field_of_study
05 social sciences
Geography, Planning and Development
Population
Microsimulation
Human capital
Educational attainment
0506 political science
European Social Survey
Projections of population growth
0502 economics and business
Population projection
050602 political science & public administration
Economics
media_common.cataloged_instance
Demographic economics
050207 economics
European union
education
Demography
media_common
Subjects
Details
- ISSN :
- 20540906 and 20540892
- Volume :
- 85
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Journal of Demographic Economics
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....4d72edea4bfbed2e263bcfea0eff1faf