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International audience; Recombinant interferon alpha is used to treat several immunological, oncological, and infectious diseases,1 and various serious side-effects have been associated with its therapeutic use. We want to bring attention to the development of neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder (NMOSD) [...]

Hana Tomaskova,1 Jitka Kuhnova,2 Richard Cimler,1,3 Ondrej Dolezal,1 Kamil Kuca3 1Faculty of Informatics and Management, 2Faculty of Science, 3Center for Basic and Applied Research (CZAV), University of Hradec Králové, Hradec Králové, Czech Republic Introduction: Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is a slowly progressing neurodegenerative brain disease with irreversible brain effects; it is the most common cause of dementia. With increasing age, the probability of suffering from AD increases. In this research, population growth of the European Union (EU) until the year 2080 and the number of patients with AD are modeled.Aim: The aim of this research is to predict the spread of AD in the EU population until year 2080 using a computer simulation.Methods: For the simulation of the EU population and the occurrence of AD in this population, a system dynamics modeling approach has been used. System dynamics is a useful and effective method for the investigation of complex social systems. Over the past decades, its applicability has been demonstrated in a wide variety of applications. In this research, this method has been used to investigate the growth of the EU population and predict the number of patients with AD. The model has been calibrated on the population prediction data created by Eurostat.Results: Based on data from Eurostat, the EU population until year 2080 has been modeled. In 2013, the population of the EU was 508 million and the number of patients with AD was 7.5 million. Based on the prediction, in 2040, the population of the EU will be 524 million and the number of patients with AD will be 13.1 million. By the year 2080, the EU population will be 520 million and the number of patients with AD will be 13.7 million.Conclusion: System dynamics modeling approach has been used for the prediction of the number of patients with AD in the EU population till the year 2080. These results can be used to determine the economic burden of the treatment of these patients. With different input data, the simulation can be used also for the different regions as well as for different noncontagious disease predictions. Keywords: Alzheimer’s disease, population modeling, system dynamics, prediction model

We investigated the evolution of cortical atrophy in patients with early relapsing-remitting (RR) multiple sclerosis (MS) and its association with lesion volume (LV) accumulation and disability progression. 136 of 181 RRMS patients who participated in the Avonex-Steroids-Azathioprine study were assessed bimonthly for clinical and MRI outcomes over 2 years. MS patients with disease duration (DD) at baseline of ≤24 months were classified in the early group (DD of 1.2 years,n=37), while patients with DD > 24 months were classified in the late group (DD of 7.1 years,n=99). Mixed effect model analysis was used to investigate the associations. Significant changes in whole brain volume (WBV) (P<0.001), cortical volume (CV) (P<0.001), and in T2-LV (P<0.001) were detected. No significant MRI percent change differences were detected between early and late DD groups over 2 years, except for increased T2-LV accumulation between baseline and year 2 in the early DD group (P<0.01). No significant associations were found between changes in T2-LV and CV over the followup. Change in CV was related to the disability progression over the 2 years, after adjusting for DD (P=0.01). Significant cortical atrophy, independent of T2-LV accumulation, occurs in early RRMS over 2 years, and it is associated with the disability progression.