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Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text., Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with substantial morbidity, especially when it goes undetected. If new-onset AF could be predicted, targeted screening could be used to find it early. We hypothesized that a deep neural network could predict new-onset AF from the resting 12-lead ECG and that this prediction may help identify those at risk of AF-related stroke. Methods: We used 1.6 M resting 12-lead digital ECG traces from 430 000 patients collected from 1984 to 2019. Deep neural networks were trained to predict new-onset AF (within 1 year) in patients without a history of AF. Performance was evaluated using areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve and precision-recall curve. We performed an incidence-free survival analysis for a period of 30 years following the ECG stratified by model predictions. To simulate real-world deployment, we trained a separate model using all ECGs before 2010 and evaluated model performance on a test set of ECGs from 2010 through 2014 that were linked to our stroke registry. We identified the patients at risk for AF-related stroke among those predicted to be high risk for AF by the model at different prediction thresholds. Results: The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and area under the precision-recall curve were 0.85 and 0.22, respectively, for predicting new-onset AF within 1 year of an ECG. The hazard ratio for the predicted high- versus low-risk groups over a 30-year span was 7.2 (95% CI, 6.9–7.6). In a simulated deployment scenario, the model predicted new-onset AF at 1 year with a sensitivity of 69% and specificity of 81%. The number needed to screen to find 1 new case of AF was 9. This model predicted patients at high risk for new-onset AF in 62% of all patients who experienced an AF-related stroke within 3 years of the index ECG. Conclusions: Deep learning can predict new-onset AF from the 12-lead ECG in patients with no previous history of AF. This prediction may help identify patients at risk for AF-related strokes.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), a respiratory illness that can result in hospitalization or death. We used exome sequence data to investigate associations between rare genetic variants and seven COVID-19 outcomes in 586,157 individuals, including 20,952 with COVID-19. After accounting for multiple testing, we did not identify any clear associations with rare variants either exome wide or when specifically focusing on (1) 13 interferon pathway genes in which rare deleterious variants have been reported in individuals with severe COVID-19, (2) 281 genes located in susceptibility loci identified by the COVID-19 Host Genetics Initiative, or (3) 32 additional genes of immunologic relevance and/or therapeutic potential. Our analyses indicate there are no significant associations with rare protein-coding variants with detectable effect sizes at our current sample sizes. Analyses will be updated as additional data become available, and results are publicly available through the Regeneron Genetics Center COVID-19 Results Browser.

Aims We investigated the relationship between clinically assessed left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and survival in a large, heterogeneous clinical cohort. Methods and results Physician-reported LVEF on 403 977 echocardiograms from 203 135 patients were linked to all-cause mortality using electronic health records (1998–2018) from US regional healthcare system. Cox proportional hazards regression was used for analyses while adjusting for many patient characteristics including age, sex, and relevant comorbidities. A dataset including 45 531 echocardiograms and 35 976 patients from New Zealand was used to provide independent validation of analyses. During follow-up of the US cohort, 46 258 (23%) patients who had undergone 108 578 (27%) echocardiograms died. Overall, adjusted hazard ratios (HR) for mortality showed a u-shaped relationship for LVEF with a nadir of risk at an LVEF of 60–65%, a HR of 1.71 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.64–1.77] when ≥70% and a HR of 1.73 (95% CI 1.66–1.80) at LVEF of 35–40%. Similar relationships with a nadir at 60–65% were observed in the validation dataset as well as for each age group and both sexes. The results were similar after further adjustments for conditions associated with an elevated LVEF, including mitral regurgitation, increased wall thickness, and anaemia and when restricted to patients reported to have heart failure at the time of the echocardiogram. Conclusion Deviation of LVEF from 60% to 65% is associated with poorer survival regardless of age, sex, or other relevant comorbidities such as heart failure. These results may herald the recognition of a new phenotype characterized by supra-normal LVEF.

Background Familial hypobetalipoproteinemia is a genetic disorder caused by rare protein-truncating variants (PTV) in the gene encoding APOB (apolipoprotein B), the major protein component of LDL (low-density lipoprotein) and triglyceride-rich lipoprotein particles. Whether heterozygous APOB deficiency is associated with decreased risk for coronary heart disease (CHD) is uncertain. We combined family-based and large scale gene-sequencing to characterize the association of rare PTVs in APOB with circulating LDL-C (LDL cholesterol), triglycerides, and risk for CHD. Methods We sequenced the APOB gene in 29 Japanese hypobetalipoproteinemia families, as well as 57 973 individuals derived from 12 CHD case-control studies-18 442 with early-onset CHD and 39 531 controls. We defined PTVs as variants that lead to a premature stop, disrupt canonical splice-sites, or lead to insertions/deletions that shift reading frame. We tested the association of rare APOB PTV carrier status with blood lipid levels and CHD. Results Among 29 familial hypobetalipoproteinemia families, 8 families harbored APOB PTVs. Carrying 1 APOB PTV was associated with 55 mg/dL lower LDL-C ( P=3×10-5) and 53% lower triglyceride level ( P=2×10-4). Among 12 case-control studies, an APOB PTV was present in 0.038% of CHD cases as compared to 0.092% of controls. APOB PTV carrier status was associated with a 43 mg/dL lower LDL-C ( P=2×10-7), a 30% decrease in triglycerides ( P=5×10-4), and a 72% lower risk for CHD (odds ratio, 0.28; 95% CI, 0.12-0.64; P=0.002). Conclusions Rare PTV mutations in APOB which are associated with lower LDL-C and reduced triglycerides also confer protection against CHD. Dr Peloso is supported by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) of the National Institutes of Health under Award Number K01HL125751. Dr Nomura was supported by the Yoshida Scholarship Foundation. Dr Khera is supported by an institutional grant from the Broad Institute of Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and Harvard (BroadIgnite), a K08 from the National Human Genome Research Institute (K08HG010155), and a Junior Faculty Award from the National Lipid Association. Dr Kathiresan is supported by a research scholar award from the Massachusetts General Hospital, the Donovan Family Foundation, and grant R01 HL127564 from the NHLBI. Funding for the EOMI study (Exome Sequencing Project Early-Onset Myocardial Infarction) was provided by grants RC2 HL103010 (HeartGO, Heart Grand Opportunity), RC2 HL102923 (LungGO, Lung Grand Opportunity), and RC2 HL102924 (WHISP) from the NHLBI. Exome sequencing was performed through grants RC2 HL102925 (BroadGO, Broad Grand Opportunity) and RC2 HL102926 (SeattleGO, Seattle Grand Opportunity) from the NHLBI. Exome sequencing in ATVB (Italian Atherosclerosis, Thrombosis, and Vascular Biology), the PROCARDIS study (Precocious Coronary Artery Disease), the OHS (Ottawa Heart Study), PROMIS (Pakistan Risk of Myocardial Infarction Study), South German MI study (South German Myocardial Infarction), and the JHS (Jackson Heart Study) was supported by grant 5U54HG003067 from the National Institutes of Health. Fieldwork, genotyping, and standard clinical chemistry assays in PROMIS were principally supported by grants awarded to the University of Cambridge from the British Heart Foundation, UK Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust, European Union (EU) Framework 6–funded Bloodomics Integrated Project, Pfizer, Novartis, and Merck. Additional support for PROMIS was provided by the UK Medical Research Council (MR/L003120/1), British Heart Foundation (RG/13/13/30194), UK National Institute for Health Research Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre, European Research Council (268834), and European Commission Framework Programme 7 (HEALTH-F2-2012–279233). The Jackson Heart Study is supported by contracts HHSN268201300046C, HHSN268201300047C, HHSN268201300048C, HHSN268201300049C, and HHSN268201300050C from the NHLBI and the National Institute on Minority Health and Health Disparities. Dr Wilson is supported by U54GM115428 from the National Institute of General Medical Sciences. REGICOR study (Registre Gironí del COR [Gerona Heart Registry]) was supported by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Innovation through the Carlos III Health Institute (Red Investigación Cardiovascular RD12/0042, PI09/90506), European Funds for Development (ERDF-FEDER), and by the Catalan Research and Technology Innovation Interdepartmental Commission (2014SGR240). Samples for the Leicester (Leicester Myocardial Infarction) cohort were collected as part of projects funded by the British Heart Foundation (British Heart Foundation Family Heart Study, RG2000010; UK Aneurysm Growth Study, CS/14/2/30841) and the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR Leicester Cardiovascular Biomedical Research Unit Biomedical Research Informatics Centre for Cardiovascular Science, IS_BRU_0211_20033). The South MI Study is supported by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) in the context of the e:Med program (e:AtheroSysMed) and the FP7 European Union project CVgenes@target (261123). Additional grants were received from the Fondation Leducq (CADgenomics: Understanding Coronary Artery Disease Genes, 12CVD02). This study was also supported through the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft cluster of excellence Inflammation at Interfaces and SFB 1123. The ATVB study was supported by a grant from RFPS-2007-3-644382 and Programma di ricerca Regione-Università 2010–2012 Area 1–Strategic Programmes–Regione Emilia-Romagna. The authors would like to thank the MyCode Community Health Initiative participants for their permission to utilize their health and genomics information in the DiscovEHR (DiscovEHR partnership of the Regeneron Genetics Center and Geisinger Health System) collaboration. The DiscovEHR study was funded, in part, by the Regeneron Genetics Center.

Protein-coding genetic variants that strongly affect disease risk can provide important clues into disease pathogenesis. Here we report an exome sequence analysis of 20,791 type 2 diabetes (T2D) cases and 24,440 controls from five ancestries. We identify rare (minor allele frequency30 SLC30A8 alleles, and (b) within 12 gene sets, including those corresponding to T2D drug targets (p=6.1×10−3) and candidate genes from knockout mice (p=5.2×10−3). Within our study, the strongest T2D rare variant gene-level signals explain at most 25% of the heritability of the strongest common single-variant signals, and the rare variant gene-level effect sizes we observe in established T2D drug targets will require 110K-180K sequenced cases to exceed exome-wide significance. To help prioritize genes using associations from current smaller sample sizes, we present a Bayesian framework to recalibrate association p-values as posterior probabilities of association, estimating that reaching ppwww.type2diabetesgenetics.org.

Rationale : Therapies that inhibit CETP (cholesteryl ester transfer protein) have failed to demonstrate a reduction in risk for coronary heart disease (CHD). Human DNA sequence variants that truncate the CETP gene may provide insight into the efficacy of CETP inhibition. Objective: To test whether protein-truncating variants (PTVs) at the CETP gene were associated with plasma lipid levels and CHD. Methods and Results: We sequenced the exons of the CETP gene in 58 469 participants from 12 case–control studies (18 817 CHD cases, 39 652 CHD-free controls). We defined PTV as those that lead to a premature stop, disrupt canonical splice sites, or lead to insertions/deletions that shift frame. We also genotyped 1 Japanese-specific PTV in 27561 participants from 3 case–control studies (14 286 CHD cases, 13 275 CHD-free controls). We tested association of CETP PTV carrier status with both plasma lipids and CHD. Among 58 469 participants with CETP gene-sequencing data available, average age was 51.5 years and 43% were women; 1 in 975 participants carried a PTV at the CETP gene. Compared with noncarriers, carriers of PTV at CETP had higher high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (effect size, 22.6 mg/dL; 95% confidence interval, 18–27; P −4 ), lower low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (−12.2 mg/dL; 95% confidence interval, −23 to −0.98; P =0.033), and lower triglycerides (−6.3%; 95% confidence interval, −12 to −0.22; P =0.043). CETP PTV carrier status was associated with reduced risk for CHD (summary odds ratio, 0.70; 95% confidence interval, 0.54–0.90; P =5.1×10 −3 ). Conclusions: Compared with noncarriers, carriers of PTV at CETP displayed higher high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, lower low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, lower triglycerides, and lower risk for CHD.

Copy number variants (CNVs) are a substantial source of genomic variation and contribute to a wide range of human disorders. Gene-disrupting exonic CNVs have important clinical implications as they can underlie variability in disease presentation and susceptibility. The relationship between exonic CNVs and clinical traits has not been broadly explored at the population level, primarily due to technical challenges. We surveyed common and rare CNVs in the exome sequences of 50,726 adult DiscovEHR study participants with linked electronic health records (EHRs). We evaluated the diagnostic yield and clinical expressivity of known pathogenic CNVs, and performed tests of association with EHR-derived serum lipids, thereby evaluating the relationship between CNVs and complex traits and phenotypes in an unbiased, real-world clinical context. We identified CNVs from megabase to exon-level resolution, demonstrating reliable, high-throughput detection of clinically relevant exonic CNVs. In doing so, we created a catalog of high-confidence common and rare CNVs and refined population frequency estimates of known and novel gene-disrupting CNVs. Our survey among an unselected clinical population provides further evidence that neuropathy-associated duplications and deletions in 17p12 have similar population prevalence but are clinically under-diagnosed. Similarly, adults who harbor 22q11.2 deletions frequently had EHR documentation of neurodevelopmental/neuropsychiatric disorders and congenital anomalies, but not a formal genetic diagnosis (i.e., deletion). In an exome-wide association study of lipid levels, we identified a novel five-exon duplication within LDLR segregating in a large kindred with features of familial hypercholesterolemia. Exonic CNVs provide new opportunities to understand and diagnose human disease.

Higher-than-normal levels of circulating triglycerides are a risk factor for ischemic cardiovascular disease. Activation of lipoprotein lipase, an enzyme that is inhibited by angiopoietin-like 4 (ANGPTL4), has been shown to reduce levels of circulating triglycerides.We sequenced the exons of ANGPTL4 in samples obtain from 42,930 participants of predominantly European ancestry in the DiscovEHR human genetics study. We performed tests of association between lipid levels and the missense E40K variant (which has been associated with reduced plasma triglyceride levels) and other inactivating mutations. We then tested for associations between coronary artery disease and the E40K variant and other inactivating mutations in 10,552 participants with coronary artery disease and 29,223 controls. We also tested the effect of a human monoclonal antibody against ANGPTL4 on lipid levels in mice and monkeys.We identified 1661 heterozygotes and 17 homozygotes for the E40K variant and 75 participants who had 13 other monoallelic inactivating mutations in ANGPTL4. The levels of triglycerides were 13% lower and the levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol were 7% higher among carriers of the E40K variant than among noncarriers. Carriers of the E40K variant were also significantly less likely than noncarriers to have coronary artery disease (odds ratio, 0.81; 95% confidence interval, 0.70 to 0.92; P=0.002). K40 homozygotes had markedly lower levels of triglycerides and higher levels of HDL cholesterol than did heterozygotes. Carriers of other inactivating mutations also had lower triglyceride levels and higher HDL cholesterol levels and were less likely to have coronary artery disease than were noncarriers. Monoclonal antibody inhibition of Angptl4 in mice and monkeys reduced triglyceride levels.Carriers of E40K and other inactivating mutations in ANGPTL4 had lower levels of triglycerides and a lower risk of coronary artery disease than did noncarriers. The inhibition of Angptl4 in mice and monkeys also resulted in corresponding reductions in these values. (Funded by Regeneron Pharmaceuticals.).

Background/Aims Single time-point GFR estimates are used for risk prognostication among those with CKD. Various applications of longitudinal eGFR using linear models, including time-independent slope and variability, have been shown to independently predict cardiovascular events. We wished to extend these applications by modeling longitudinal eGFR–forming estimates of current eGFR value and time-dependent eGFR slope at any point in time–and then test the independent association with cardiovascular event risk in an adjusted, joint longitudinal-survival model.

Background/Aims Childhood obesity remains a priority issue for the nation and health systems yet little is known about the effectiveness of pediatric obesity prevention interventions overall and evidence is particularly lacking with regard to prevention in clinical settings. Our aim is to discuss process steps in developing two clinical interventions to prevent obesity and their research designs to evaluate effectiveness.

Background/Aims The Medication Possession Ratio (MPR) is a common claims-based metric for describing medication adherence. The MPR can only be calculated for patients who fill at least 2 prescriptions. Thus, patients with