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Dieser Meilensteinbericht fasst die in ÖKONVER im Kontext des TP 2000 entstandenen Arbeitsergebnisse zusammen, die in Form von Aufsätzen, Projektberichten und sonstigen Veröffentlichungen publiziert worden sind. Das hier adressierte Teilprojekt 2000 hatte zum Ziel, ökonomisch fundierte Bewertungen neuer Geschäftsmodelle, Technologien und Maßnahmen im europäischen Verkehrssystem vorzunehmen.

Die vorliegende Stellungnahme der Expertenkommission zum Monitoring-Prozess „Energie der Zukunft“ kommentiert den achten Monitoring-Bericht zur Energiewende der Bundesregierung für die Berichtsjahre 2018 und 2019. Die Stellungnahme bezieht sich auf den Entwurf des achten Monitoring-Berichts, welcher der Expertenkommission im Dezember 2020 vom Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Energie (BMWi) in einer vorläufigen Fassung zur Verfügung gestellt wurde. Soweit zeitlich möglich, wurden auch Änderungen des achten Monitoring-Berichts im Kontext der Ressortabstimmung berücksichtigt. Die vorliegende Stellungnahme basiert auf dem am 18. Dezember 2020 für die Expertenkommission verfügbaren Informations- und Datenstand. Zur Dokumentation des Fortschritts bei der Umsetzung des Energiekonzepts veröffentlicht die Bundesregierung jährlich einen faktenbasierten Monitoring-Bericht und zudem alle drei Jahre einen Fortschrittsbericht mit einer vertieften Analyse der Entwicklungen und Maßnahmen sowie einem Ausblick. In diesem Jahr veröffentlicht die Bundesregierung ihren mittlerweile achten Monitoring-Bericht. Seit 2011 steht der Bundesregierung in diesem Prozess eine unabhängige Kommission aus vier Expertinnen und Experten beratend zur Seite. Die Expertenkommission zum Monitoring-Prozess „Energie der Zukunft“ legt ihrerseits jährliche Stellungnahmen zum Fortschritt der Energiewende vor, die den Berichten der Bundesregierung beigefügt und dem Kabinett sowie dem Bundestag zugeleitet werden. Die vorliegende Stellungnahme der Expertenkommission bezieht sich auf den Entwurf des achten Monitoring-Berichts, der der Expertenkommission am 09. Dezember 2020 vom Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Energie (BMWi) zur Verfügung gestellt wurde.

Die Problematik, Entscheidungen durch das Abwägen einzelner Aspekte zu treffen, durchzieht alle Bereiche der privaten und öffentlichen Wirtschaft. Diese Herausforderung hat selbstredend auch im Verkehr Gültigkeit und beinhaltet hierbei von politischen Maßnahmen über die Wahl von technologischen Linien bis hin zur Ausgestaltung konkreter Produkte und Designs eine große Bandbreite von Abwägungsproblemen. Das DLR im Bereich Verkehr interagiert sowohl mit Vertretern der Industrie als auch der Politik und tritt häufig als Vermittler auf. Hierdurch wird nun eine essentielle Anforderung an das DLR offensichtlich: die Unterstützung privater und öffentlicher Entscheidungsträger hinsichtlich ihrer Abwägungsprobleme und darüber hinaus die Vermittlung zwischen unterschiedlichen Interessengruppen in einem Abwägungsprozess. Im Rahmen des Projekts ÖKONVER (Ökonomisch fundierte Bewertung neuer Technologien und Maßnahmen im europäischen Verkehrssystem) wurde der nachfolgende praxisnahe Leitfaden erarbeitet. Das Ziel dieses Leitfadens besteht nun darin, einen Mehrwert für die breite Masse der potenziellen Anwender im DLR zu schaffen, indem: - die wesentlichen Bewertungsverfahren und Prozesse im Überblick vorgestellt und erläutert werden, - für die Bewertungsverfahren und Prozesse der Bezug zum Verkehr ausgeführt und veranschaulicht wird, - ein gemeinsames Verständnis innerhalb des DLR geschaffen wird, - eine praxisnahe Handreichung zur Anwendung im politischen Milieu für Wissenschaftler mit unterschiedlichen fachlichen Hintergründen bereitgestellt wird und - die Grenzen der ökonomischen Bewertung und Voraussetzungen für eine adäquate Durchführung des Bewertungsprozesses aufgezeigt werden.

Der vorliegende zweite Teil - Sektorenkopplung und Wasserstoff: Zwei Seiten der gleichen Medaille knüpft an diesem Punkt an. Er befasst sich detailliert mit möglichen Nutzungspfaden von Wasserstoff in den Sektoren Verkehr, Industrie und Wärme sowie mit dem systemisch wichtigen Aspekt der Rückverstromung. Am Beispiel aktueller Forschungsarbeiten im DLR wird dargestellt, welche Potenziale sich durch die Kopplung der verschiedenen Energieverbrauchssektoren bei der Erzeugung und Nutzung von Wasserstoff ergeben. Diese Synergien ebnen den Weg zu einer effizienteren und flexibleren Nutzung von erneuerbarer Energie. Neben den technologischen Einsatzmöglichkeiten spielen darüber hinaus die Infrastruktur sowie dazugehörige Sicherheitsaspekte bei der Nutzung von Wasserstoff eine gewichtige Rolle. Weiterhin wird im DLR auf dem Gebiet der Energiesystemanalyse an der Einschätzung der Auswirkungen großskaliger Wasserstoffinfrastrukturen auf das bestehende und zukünftige Energiesystem geforscht. Dies beinhaltet auch die Fragestellungen, ob ein klimaneutrales Energiesystem aus heutiger Sicht überhaupt ohne Wasserstoff denkbar ist, bzw. wie groß der Wasserstoffbedarf und das -angebot in solchen Zielszenarien ausfällt. Zudem werden Umwelteinwirkungen untersucht und Lebenszyklusanalysen erstellt.

Projections indicate that global transport may more than double by 2050. Future car stock and use are of paramount importance for drafting policy measures and for assessing emerging technology developments. This paper uses a unique forecasting approach combining quantitative data and qualitative expert judgements. Based on the historic development of vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT) in four OECD countries, the approach assesses potential future development paths for BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) and derives VKT saturation levels for these. For this purpose, we investigated eight factors with influence on car ownership and car use. A group of experts established factor values for the BRICS countries and compared these to the factor values in the OECD countries. Subsequently, we linked the factor values to levels of car use. Among the BRICS countries, we expect the lowest VKT saturation levels for India and China, mainly but not exclusively due to their spatial structures and transport policies. Spatial structures, socio-economic legacies and policies, among other factors, are leading to higher expected VKT saturation levels in Brazil, Russia and South Africa. Those countries also face challenges to establish alternatives to the private car.

Battery electric vehicles (BEV) provide an opportunity to balance supply and demand in future power systems with high shares of fluctuating renewable energy. Compared to other storage systems such as pumped-storage hydroelectricity, electric vehicle energy demand is highly dependent on charging and connection choices of vehicle users. We present a model framework of a utility-based stock and flow model, a utility-based microsimulation of charging decisions, and an energy system model including respective interfaces to assess how the representation of battery electric vehicle charging affects energy system optimization results. We then apply the framework to a scenario study for controlled charging of nine million electric vehicles in Germany in 2030. Assuming a respective fleet power demand of 27 TWh, we analyze the difference between power-system-based and vehicle user-based charging decisions in two respective scenarios. Our results show that taking into account vehicle users’ charging and connection decisions significantly decreases the load shifting potential of controlled charging. The analysis of marginal values of equations and variables of the optimization problem yields valuable insights on the importance of specific constraints and optimization variables. Assumptions on fleet battery availability and a detailed representation of fast charging are found to have a strong impact on wind curtailment, renewable energy feed-in, and required gas power plant flexibility. A representation of fleet connection to the grid in high temporal detail is less important. Peak load can be reduced by 5% and 3% in both scenarios, respectively. Shifted load is robust across sensitivity analyses while other model results such as curtailment are more sensitive to factors such as underlying data years. Analyzing the importance of increased BEV fleet battery availability for power systems with different weather and electricity demand characteristics should be further scrutinized.

Background: The introduction of a carbon tax on passenger transport is currently being discussed in Germany. Various stakeholders favour a consumption-based, revenue-neutral carbon tax with a uniform lump-sum offset for private households and a tax rate of 40 € per ton of CO2. Objective: In this study, we examine the distributional effects of carbon taxation for the German passenger transport sector under the assumption of the proposed tax model. We discuss as to what extent which socioeconomic groups would be burdened and who might even benefit from carbon taxation. To answer these questions we use a uniquely modelled data set that encompasses all forms of passenger transport (i.e. in Germany and abroad) of the German resident population over 1 year. The national household travel survey Mobility in Germany 2017 is the basis of the microscopic data set. We derive annual CO2 emissions and carbon tax burdens for various population groups using the data on passenger transport, as well as specific emission factors. Results: Results show that low income households, retirees, single parents and family households with two or more children would benefit from the proposed carbon taxation scheme due to below-average emissions per person; in contrast, working age households without children and car owners with heavy car use would be burdened. Our results are of particular relevance to transport researchers, transport politicians and decision makers as a basis for designing, developing and introducing a carbon taxation scheme

Human mobility reflects how, when, where and why people move from one location to another. Transport demand models can provide answers to these questions. Such models usually require a large amount of data as input and provide detailed information about the trips made by each individual during a day. Exploring this data can become very complex. Usually, several types of aggregation and disaggregation are performed on a spatial, temporal or demographic level. Often a variety of tools is used for analyzing, communicating and validating the data. This paper introduces an interactive and scalable web application for analyzing, communicating and validating the data of a transport model. The presented approach could also be used within a different research domain. Therefore, recommendations and implementation notes are given on how such an application can be realized in R. A special focus is set on the representation of daily mobility patterns within this application.

Many people are considered constrained in terms of mobility. This includes children under certain age, bodily or mentally handicapped individuals, and the elderly. Autonomous vehicles (AVs) may be a remedy to the limited mobility of these groups providing them with independence, flexibility, as well as access to essential services. Simultaneously, little is known about the amount of people belonging to these groups who can really benefit from AVs and about the needs and benefits of AVs for these people from user perspective. This contribution gives comprehensive overview of the results of a study that analyzes the potential of AVs for mobility constrained people. It takes a closer look on current mobility patterns of these groups, their mobility-related needs and the evaluation of the technology from user perspective based on qualitative and quantitative methods. What is the real potential of AVs for mobility constrained people and will they embrace AVs?

Road vehicles are becoming increasingly automated and connected due to rapid technological progress and digitalization trends. Vehicle connectivity might improve automated driving (AD) in various ways. While the benefits of convergence of sensor-based technologies and connected-vehicle communications are relatively well analyzed from technological, economical, and legal perspective in recent works, assessing user acceptance remains a challengeable task as many of the benefits of this convergence are not directly observable by the users. This study provides early insights on expectations, requirements and concerns of potential users of AD progressed by Internet of Things solutions based on an online survey conducted in eight European countries. It is a part of the European project AUTOPILOT where different use cases of AD progressed by Internet of Things (IoT) are developed and tested. This contribution summarizes the main results from the survey and discusses their implication for the development of the technology considering the user perspective.

Realizing a sustainable built environment is not possible at present due to the fractured nature of stakeholders, policies, and assessment tools. In order to achieve environmental goals, induced impacts (i.e., impacts resulting from the interplay between sectors), must be accounted for. Research findings show that induced impacts resulting from the building, transportation, and energy sectors are critical for sustainability of the built environment. This paper presents specific policy recommendations at the building and transportation level based on induced impact research. While “innovative” and “new” solutions are often favored, the recommendations illustrate that well-known, yet politically difficult, steps are required to achieve a sustainable built environment. In order to account for induced impacts in the built environment, this paper provides policy recommendations at the building and transportation level. For the building level, assessment tools must be expanded to include the building’s transportation footprint and the building’s neighborhood context. Concrete recommendations include a moratorium on parking, prioritization of mixedused neighborhoods, and conservation of existing buildings (older buildings and neighborhoods are more environmentally sound). These policies can be implemented through construction permits and environmental certification. For the transportation level, policies must focus on new technologies, existing public transportation, and urban planning. Specific recommendations are to restrict autonomous vehicles to multi-passenger use, require sector coupling for electric vehicles, provide high-quality public transportation (divert subsidies from single-occupancy vehicles to public transportation), and give transportation providers agency in real-estate and neighborhood development.

Despite ambitious climate goals, the German transportation sector has failed to reduce emissions. As these emissions are dominated by personal vehicles, electric vehicles are central for achieving environmental objectives. To determine potential emission reductions from electric vehicles, a detailed analysis of the transportation and energy sectors is necessary. Thus we present a methodology to calculate charging demand of electric vehicles using a time and location specific microsimulation and probability estimation based on a utility function for charging behavior. The transportation model is coupled with a detailed energy model for Germany, which provides electricity generation per energy source on an hourly basis over a year. We apply the methodology and models to the case study of Germany in 2030 for five scenarios. The scenarios represent difference pricing schemes reflecting policy options for electric vehicles. The results show that charging demand can be shifted using market incentives. We find that charging subsidies can shift charging demand to or away from peaks. We then combine charging demand with the energy model to quantify the CO2 emissions. The results show that shifting charging demand can reduce emissions, albeit at a minimal level. For the entire year, shifting charging to the daytime can reduce emissions by 2%. New areas of research including bidirectional charging and hourly pricing are needed to ensure maximum emission reductions from electric vehicles.

The study introduced in the paper estimates value of time for autonomous driving and ist impact on mobility, using a combination of revealed and stated preference method. The paper introduces the results and discusses potential and challenges of value of time estimation using stated preference.

In order to reduce emissions within urban areas, a shift from conventional vehicles for distribution and commercial transport would be desirable. Analysis has shown that this shift would be possible, yet it has not happened. The paper describes, based on the analysis of various pilot projects carried out in Germany, which developments are needed in order to facilitate a swift roll-out for e-vehicles for urban distribution. It is described, what the strengths of electric vehicles for urban distribution are, which challenges are still existing, the user acceptance encountered and the requirements towards innovative e-distribution concepts beyond the vehicle itself. Three pilot projects, carried out with logistics providers and commercial users in the Berlin area in the period from 2010 to 2016, as well as findings from a major quantitative research carried out in Germany with over 1,100 participants build the basis for the research. The paper closes in an outlook on how a spread of e-mobility for urban distribution can be supported and improved.

This article seeks to clarify how autonomous vehicles (AV) could affect urban planning and the built environment, to what extent these effects are compatible with municipalities’ existing objectives, and what lessons can be drawn from that. The paper combines a systematic review of the literature, a quantitative online survey, and qualitative interviews with representatives from urban transport planning authorities in Germany. Four concrete ‘use-cases’ were applied to structure the survey. Results show that respondents are rather skeptical about the compatibility of AV with existing transport and urban planning objectives, above all to strengthen non-motorized transportation and to promote public transportation. Particularly, automating private motorized travel appears not to match municipal planning perspectives. On the contrary, transport planners think that shared autonomous vehicles as a complement to public transport systems are more appropriate to support urban development strategies. Their most prominent concern with respect to AV is the expectation that car travel will increase with AV, propagating problems like congestion and negative environmental effects. However, survey respondents expect that effects differ quite strongly depending on how AV will occur. As a lesson, the study suggests that different AV use-cases should receive specific attention to explore their potentials and challenges. The study likewise suggests to, given the discrepancy between the objectives of urban transport planning and federal government‘s policy focus, consider consolidating the communal strategic positions on research and development priorities. The results indicate a demand for studies that demonstrate how AV can respond to more fundamental challenges and goals that city planner’s face. Given the wide range of potential implications, the study suggests to broaden the debate from its present primary focus on the transport planning domain to city planning and development.

Although climate change is a global problem, specific mitigation measures are frequently applied on regional or national scales only. This is the case in particular for measures to reduce the emissions of land-based transport, which is largely characterized by regional or national systems with independent infrastructure, organization, and regulation. The climate perturbations caused by regional transport emissions are small compared to those resulting from global emissions. Consequently, they can be smaller than the detection limits in global three-dimensional chemistry-climate model simulations, hampering the evaluation of the climate benefit of mitigation strategies. Hence, we developed a new approach to solve this problem. The approach is based on a combination of a detailed three-dimensional global chemistry-climate model system, aerosol-climate response functions, and a zero-dimensional climate response model. For demonstration purposes, the approach was applied to results from a transport and emission modeling suite, which was designed to quantify the present-day and possible future transport activities in Germany and the resulting emissions. The results show that, in a baseline scenario, German transport emissions result in an increase in global mean surface temperature of the order of 0.01 K during the 21st century. This effect is dominated by the CO2 emissions, in contrast to the impact of global transport emissions, where non-CO2 species make a larger relative contribution to transport-induced climate change than in the case of German emissions. Our new approach is ready for operational use to evaluate the climate benefit of mitigation strategies to reduce the impact of transport emissions.

Long-distance travel, respectively interurban travel, makes up a considerable share in transport performance: nearly half of the passenger transport performance is accounted by trips of more than 100 km. Furthermore passenger long-distance travel is achieving considerable growth while other segments of transport rather remain static. Above that passenger long-distance travel is in the focus of politics and research against the background of energy and climate objectives and due to a dynamic supply development. Despite the relevance of this transport segment, an appropriate depiction of long-distance travel behavior within the framework of a multimodal model is missing in Germany and most other countries. One fundamental reason for that is the heterogeneous data situation, resulting from the fact that the topic is of interest by different institutions that generate relevant data. By means of different survey methods the data on long-distance travel behavior is collected, but mostly with deviant focuses or different objectives. The question arises, whether it is possible to generate a consistent and exclusive data set from the different data sources, which can build the basis for long-distance travel model. The aim is, to apply and enhance statistic and econometric methods, to build a model respectively an instrument for data fusion of long-distance travel data. An essential basic work hereby is to clearly differentiate and define the segment of long-distance travel. In the next step the today available data sources are listed and contrasted with each other. Finally I provide a methodological framework on how the available data can enhance the current data basis for long-distance travel behavior. The work intends to contribute to presently existing fundamental challenges in modelling long-distance passenger travel through combining available data in a creative and innovative manner.

Vehicle automation technology advances at rapid pace and the market entry of automated vehicles (AV) can be expected within the next years. Vehicle automation technology transitions gradually through different levels of automation (level 1 through level 4). However, substantial impact on travel choices only seem likely once drivers do not need to attend to the driving task anymore for most of a trip; i.e. drivers can take their “brain off” and engage in other activities such as work or entertainment. This is likely to impact on travel choices such as destination and mode choice because drivers might be willing to spend more time in the car or because the car is more attractive relative to other modes. At the moment, the future outlook in terms of AV regulation does not include the prospect of AVs being allowed to move without a driver; i.e. there must be a driver on board able to take over the driving task. This prospect rules out autonomous shared vehicle systems (autonomous car sharing, autonomous ride sharing) to a large degree, making privately owned AVs a likely scenario. The paper presents results from modelling travel behavior impacts of introducing AVs into the private car fleet. In order to model such a 2035 scenario, we combined a vehicle technology diffusion model and an aspatial travel demand model and applied this to Germany and the USA. Differentiating by passenger car segment, we introduce AVs among the newly registered vehicles from 2021 onward assuming an s-shaped market-take-up until 2035. By then, 50% of the new vehicles and 25% of the passenger car fleet are projected to be AVs. Again differentiating by segment and age, the AVs can be found among specific driver groups. In addition we assume that AVs are owned by mobility impaired travelers who did not have the option to drive previously. Subsequently, we use a travel demand model consisting of trip generation, distance choice and mode choice to forecast travel by different traveler groups and by car availability (no car, conventional car, AV). For modelling the impact of AVs compared to conventional cars, we reduced access/egress times due to quicker parking / valet parking and we reduced values of car travel time savings for travelers with AVs. While the model results overall conform to expectation the impact of AVs on travel behavior are not large: There is a ~5% increase in VMT for both Germany and the USA, resulting from somewhat longer trips combined with slight modal shifts from other modes towards the car. These results have important implications: If the regulatory framework for AVs is such that a private AV scenario is the most likely development, AVs are not likely to revolutionize travel. AVs will change travel behavior – but their impact might be marginal compared to other external factors.

Innovations theories focusing on socio-technical regimes assume niches to be an initial point for social changes and innovations’ development becoming a mass market. This paper uses the niches approach and analyzes electric mobility in commercial transport in Germany. The central question is: Which niches are (not) addressed (yet)? Challenges are to identify current niches in commercial sector which are addressed by electric mobility and to determine further potentials for the niches identified. For this purpose two surveys have been evaluated and compared in the paper: one addressing the pioneers of battery electric vehicles (BEV) and one addressing owners of vehicles with internal combustion engines (ICEV) (evaluation limited to commercial users). One central finding of the analysis is that extreme and cost-inefficient use profiles are overrepresented among BEV pioneers as compared to all commercial vehicle owners. It is reflected in their purchase motivation: current pioneers are primarily motivated by environmental and image aspects than of rational economic reasons. Further, the analysis shows a great potential for the niches to expand. But this potential is not activated by current vehicle concepts. This paper provides results giving specific information about niche potentials and which motivating aspect could target them. To expand niches future research activities and policy measures should focus on demand-targeted measures and experiments towards a demand-targeted variety of car-concepts. Of special relevance for niche expansion are public or public related branches. Within innovation theories a demand by state organisations and authorities is an important initial demand for radical innovations.

Germany has set a goal of having one million electric vehicles in use by 2020. This is a crucial part of the national program Energy Transition, which aims to reduced greenhouse gas emissions and transition the economy to renewable energy sources. Achieving this goal requires adequate charging infrastructure, while also remaining economically efficient. Furthermore, infrastructure must be sufficiently robust to accommodate diverse future scenarios. These include variations in the electric vehicle fleet make-up (battery electric vehicles versus plug-in hybrid electric vehicles), range of vehicles, access to charging stations, charging locations, and charging speeds. This paper presents an approach to determine charging infrastructure using the German case study. We present a demand-oriented methodology to determine charging infrastructure requirements. Utilizing actual travel survey data from a national travel survey, charging demand for user-profiles are determined. Relating charging demand with infrastructure supply (based on the average distance to the next available charging point), we find the required number of charging points. The robustness of the methodology is verified through scenario analyses. The work presents four main findings. First, offering on-street charging in residential areas dramatically increases charging infrastructure. Second, a high percentage of electric vehicles with a private home parking spot notably decreases the total number of charging points. Third, PHEVs slightly increase charging infrastructure demand. Forth, demand for charging infrastructure does not increase linearly with charging demand. Applying the approach to the German case study, between 14,700 and 29,500 charging points are required for one million electric vehicles.

Mobility offerings have never been as abundant and varied as the present. While users welcome new and innovative mobility options, this current paradigm shift presents a challenge for authorities that plan, organize, and operate such services. In particular, integrating new mobility services into existing infrastructure systems can generate problems of acceptance, co-operability, and compatibility. This problem is especially relevant for electric vehicles. Limited range and battery capacity of battery electric vehicles make them dependent on charging infrastructure, which in turn hinders their acceptance. In light of the German government's goal of one million electric vehicles by 2020, establishing a demand-oriented charging infrastructure is of crucial importance. However, numerous questions remain unanswered regarding the quantity, type, and location of electric vehicle charging stations in Germany. This article presents the findings of the project “LADEN2020: Concept to build up a demand-oriented charging infrastructure in Germany between today and 2020.” The research project develops a systematically comprehensible and consistent strategy for electric vehicle charging infrastructure in Germany. The paper presents the methodological framework to estimate the charging demand for daily and long-distance travel, which is unique and innovative as similar comprehensive and consistent analytical tools do not exist to date.

A model is sketched that allows to display the reaction of the supply side in the freight transport market on changes in demand and on policy measures. Considerations are made on how to include the concept of monopolistic competition into an agent based market simulation. Methods of price formation and rules for entries and exits of suppliers in the market are given. © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. Peer-review under responsibility of the organising committee of the 9th International Conference on City Logistics.

Intelligent transport systems are accepted as an integral part of the transport system. They have high potential in reducing the carbon footprint of traffic while improving efficient and safe transport. The calculation of CO 2 emissions arising from the transport sector incorporating the impact of ITS is a challenging task. A systematic assessment methodology will support developers, public authorities and investors in ITS solutions to make sound decisions based on comparable and transparent impact estimates. As the basis for such an assessment, the fragmentation of traffic in underlying processes is suggested. These processes can be divided into transport demand related processes and driver behaviour and vehicle related processes. Together these processes lead to traffic flow. Transport processes are influenced by various factors. Both the processes itself and the factors influencing them can be affected by ITS. A systematic analysis of the potential effects of ITS on all these levels is the prerequisite for choosing a suitable modelling approach to quantify the effects. It also ensures the transparency of the modelling process by elucidating the required model sensitivities. The details of such an approach and its context from user need to a standardised assessment methodology for ITS is described. © The Institution of Engineering and Technology 2015.

Information and communication technologies (ICT) applied to the transport sector are expected to play a significant role in reducing the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions emitted by the transport sector. To foster the development and deployment of these technologies, known as “intelligent transport systems” (ITS), and direct the development into promising tracks their potential impact on CO2 emissions needs to be known in advance. Therefore a methodology for a reliable environmental evaluation is crucial, which is outline in this technical paper.

Electric vehicles are expected to significantly reduce road transport emissions, given an increasingly renewable power generation. While technological issues are more and more being overcome, the economic viability and thus possible adoption is still constrained, mainly by higher prices than for conventional vehicles. However, first vehicles have been available on the market for some time now and many more are expected to arrive soon and at decreasing cost. In our work we analyze the possible market development for electric vehicles with an application to Germany. We develop a drivetrain choice model with economical, technical and social constraints on the current vehicle registrations and inventory. It estimates the demand for electric vehicles until 2030 for private and commercially registered cars as well as light commercial vehicles. The results show a replacement potential of more than one fourth of the total German annual mileage for these vehicles. The result has a high granularity to allow for detailed emission calculation along different spatial areas as well as vehicle and engine types. Besides a baseline forecast, our method allows for calculating different scenarios regarding policy actions or the future development of important parameters such as energy prices. The results provide insights for policy measures as well as for transport and environmental modeling.

The Amitran FP7 project will define a reference methodology to assess the impact of intelligent transport systems on CO2 emissions. The methodology is intended to be used as a reference by future projects and covers both passenger and freight transport. The project will lead to a validated methodology, described in a handbook and complemented by an online checklist. The current paper focuses on the user needs assessment. To ensure the usefulness of the future methodology for potential users, the user needs are identified with the use of interviews, a survey and a workshop. This analysis unveils the demand for a standardised procedure for the assessment of impacts on traveler behaviour and CO2 emissions related to the deployment of ICT in transport. Stakeholders from all fields related to ITS development, deployment, and use from all over Europe are included in the analysis.

The efficient design and operation of intersections, particularly signalized intersections, depends on the availability of detailed traffic flow data. Information on the turning ratio and lane occupation is, however, commonly scarce or unreliable. Combining Floating Car Data (FCD) with other data sources offers the opportunity to fill this gap. As opposed to existing data fusion concepts, detector data is not directly used to deliver information on the traffic flow on a specific link, but it is evaluated in connection with the FCD to estimate the penetration rate of the traffic with probe vehicles. This information is combined with historic data and information contained in network connections. The data fusion itself is achieved by using a Kalman Filter (KF). By using FCD, the output of the data fusion process is up to date and can be used to take incidents and other fluctuations of traffic volumes into account. The elasticity of the filter to different input reliabilities and flow variations is shown. The concept works well and promises to be a useful tool for cities with sufficient FCD available. The performance depends in the first place on a good calibration, which can be achieved by extensive tests based on simulations and based on manual counts as part of an implementation.

The presentation gives an overview on data issues in Europe: communication issues, European projects and their funding, legalisation and its impact on data, standardisation efforts of the European Union. The particular situation in Germany is expanded upon by highlighting mobility data availability and traffic flow data availability. The contribution closes with an introduction to the Institutes of Transport Research, Institute of Transportation Systems, and the Clearing House for Transport and Mobility.

The purpose of transportation networks is the efficient and sustainable movement of people and goods. However, established evaluation procedures commonly assess the traffic quality instead of the transport quality, i.e. they focus on vehicles instead of goods and travellers. Furthermore, the existing methodologies evaluate the quality of each transport mode separately and often neglect the role of bicycles and pedestrians. Recently, several methods have been proposed to consider transport networks from a multimodal perspective, which is an important step towards the transport quality evaluation in the context of sustainability. A transparent and objective evaluation methodology is needed which comprehensively considers all transport modes. The procedure introduced in this article is limited to the assessment of signalized intersections, but goes one step beyond the existing methods: the multimodal assessment considers the number of travellers of the different modes. A route importance factor is introduced to reflect the differing significance of the transport modes. A case study underlines the strengths of the procedure.

The coordination of signal programs at adjacent intersections offers many advantages, the most important being that travel times and emissions can be reduced. However, coordination is a multivariate optimization problem with many constraints. Numerous optimization strategies have been devised in the past. The quality of these coordination strategies depends on three major factors: the quality of the optimization procedure itself, the performance measures it is based upon, and the quality of the input data. In real world applications, the impact of the latter factor in relation to the other factors is commonly a source of great uncertainty. To be able to analyze all three factors, a methodology has been developed to compare different offline optimization strategies using complete information of the traffic flow. The complete information is obtained by using a mesoscopic traffic flow simulation (AVENUE). To have a benchmark for a given optimization function, the best possible coordination for given conditions (traffic demand etc.) is computed using Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). Different strategies can then be compared to this benchmark and with each other. Furthermore, the stability of the strategies under changing traffic demand and the effect on different performance indices (e.g. number of stops, average delay) can be evaluated. This article describes the methodology, expands upon Particle Swarm Optimiza-tion as a useful tool in signal control, and highlights the opportunities arising out of the chosen approach.

Data – or information – is the main requirement for ITS. Intelligent transport services (ITS), applications and systems strongly rely on reliable data sources, which have to be given with a sufficient degree of coverage and penetration. Moreover, available data has to be well described in order i.) to allow a best possible knowledge about it, ii.) to find it in an huge data archive, and so, iii.) to utilize it in a best possible way. Finally, data has to be accessible without any borders. In an optimal environment necessary data sets are available free of charge; network access is publicly available without bureaucratic and technical restrictions. Reality tells a different story. European data availability of sources relevant for ITS purposes is very heterogeneous. In the European research project ROADIDEA given availability of data sources for the transportation sector was analysed thoroughly. The project focussed on a definition of a road map for new and radical innovation for the European transport sector valid for the next decades. Special attention was focussed on the investigation of available data sources from a European perspective. Long haul road transportation relations - for instance from South of Italy to Northern Finland – were addressed, in order to provide similar ITS services along the entire route with special respect to specific climatic conditions. It is clear, that for such an approach a best possible knowledge about data availability in a continental scale is absolutely indispensable. This paper describes the work and the results of the data related work package of the project ROADIDEA with regard to the project objectives. The major outcome of the ROADIDEA data research was the implementation of a ‘data mediation’, which targets at a combination of technologies applicable in a – from a data perspective – optimal transportation world.

One of the main restrictions of present-day driver assistance systems is the limited temporal and spatial horizon. In order to overcome this limitation, the European integrated project SAFESPOT aims to develop a safety margin assistant, which provides the driver with appropriate recommendations for how to avoid critical situations. For reaching that goal, positioning algorithms with sub-meter accuracy are necessary. In this paper, the SAFESPOT approach for accurate relative positioning of vehicles is presented. The main idea is to combine several sources of information from a cooperative vehicle ad-hoc networks using a data fusion module. Thus, the single positioning technologies (e. g. satellite navigation, communication signals, and landmarks) as well as the data fusion algorithms are explained. The results are expected to improve localization accuracy in a way which makes it possible for vehicular safety applications to determine even the lane in which a vehicle is travelling.

So far, car sharing is just a small niche product on the mobility market. The proven positive effects of car sharing can only contribute to solving traffic problems if the number of car sharing customers grows. The present paper investigates, on the basis of a household survey, the awareness and the market potential of mobility service car sharing in Germany. The results show that the majority of the respondents do not know what the term car sharing stands for. Even within the sub-group of people who could explain what car sharing is, local car sharing offers are not well known. To measure the attitudes towards the different modes of transport and the acceptance of the general idea to share a car with other people, statement batteries were used. On the basis of factor analyses, linear and logistic regression models, the factors are determined that influence whether a person has a liking for car sharing or not. Furthermore, the correlation between attitudes and behavioral aspects are revealed. In this context, people with multimodal mobility behavior are found to be more open-minded for shared used vehicle systems. Finally, by taking subjective (attitudes) and objective criteria (current mobility behavior) into account, the potential of car sharing is estimated. The paper starts with a short history of the development and the current status quo of car sharing in Germany and a brief summary of the previous research. In the end recommendations for the further development of car sharing are given.

Mittels des in diesem Artikel beschriebenen EVA-Ansatzes lassen sich wegzweckspezifische und zeitvariante Quelle-Ziel-Matrizen auf der Basis allgemeiner Inputdaten zur Raumstruktur und zum Verkehrsverhalten erzeugen. Die differenzierten Matrizen liefern einen Hinweis darauf, wo und wann, die im Modell abgebildeten Aktivitäten stattfinden. Dieser Output kann als Startlösung für die Erstellung von Aktivitätenplänen in Mulit-Agenten-Simulationen dienen. Der Artikel erläutert die Grundzüge des EVA-Ansatzes, beschreibt die Datenaufbereitung und vergleicht die ermittelten Ergebnisse mit dem bestehenden Personenverkehrsmodell der Stadtverwaltung Berlins sowie realen Zählwerten aus dem Straßennetz. Es kann aufgezeigt werden, dass mit einem minimalen Dateneinsatz geeignete Matrizen erzeugt werden konnten, die als Startlösung für die Bildung von Aktivitätenplänen herangezogen werden können.

Road pricing has been discussed since quite a long time as a political measure to shift transport costs directly to the infrastructure users thus also meeting the need for providing efficient transport infrastructures in the future. Other general objectives related to road pricing concern traffic management, in particular the backing of an efficient handling of traffic. Ecological effects are more or less considered as welcome side effects. Road pricing exists in the form of either highway tolling or inner urban congestion charging. While Germany has restricted road pricing to a highway toll for heavy vehicles, there are no experiences concerning urban congestion charging. First reports coming from European cities like London, Oslo or Trondheim where congestion charging was introduced in the last years, seem to confirm a considerable change in the behaviour of road users – irrespectively of effects perceived by the individual road user. The experiences made in various European cities indicate that road pricing is able to decrease at least partially the problems of congestion, noise and other environmental annoyances thus increasing the quality of life in the concerned areas. This, so far, endorses the expectations that road pricing could be an effective tool for traffic management and the improvement of traffic in cities. Despite these positive ‘signs’, the discussion about road pricing and congestion charging, however, remains controversial and sometimes becomes even emotional. At the time, the question if road pricing might be accepted by a considerable part of the road users is mostly ‘automatically’ denied. Yet, particularly for the context of big cities, we assume that being affected from negative traffic effects could people lead to accept more easily pricing measures for road transport. Therefore the contribution will explore both direct and indirect (or ‘rebound’) effects of road pricing and congestion charging and investigate their potential effects on travel behaviour. In its overview on observed reactions to road pricing it relies on recent studies made for the German Ministry of Transport by the Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe. The examination of current attitudes of individuals towards road pricing will be based on a nationwide survey with a special focus on the city of Berlin. The study regards only car users. Particular attention will be given to the question if the subjective are affected by traffic problems like congestion, air pollution and traffic noise raises the willingness to accept road pricing or congestion charging. Another focus lies on the question what people expect to be their reactions to road pricing and congestion charging.

In recent years many powerful techniques and algorithms have been developed to detect moving targets and estimate their motion parameters from single- or multi-channel SAR data. In case of single- and two-channel systems, most of the developed algorithms rely on analysis of the Doppler history. Nowadays it is known, that even small unconsidered across-track accelerations can bias the along-track velocity estimation. Since we want to monitor real and more complex traffic scenarios with a future traffic monitoring system like TRAMRAD, we must know which target accelerations we have to handle in reality. For this reason a common passenger car was equipped with an inertial measurement system and differential GPS to measure accelerations in all three dimensions during rush-hour traffic. In this paper the results of the acceleration measurements are presented and discussed. The standard deviations of the measured accelerations are in the order of 0.5 m/s2 for accelerations in driving direction and 0.6 m/s2 for radial accelerations. A theoretical analysis (which is verified by detailed simulations) of the Doppler slope shows also that at such high across-track accelerations a reliable estimation of the along-track velocity by means of a Doppler slope analysis without further information is unemployable in practice. Also oscillations of the car body along the vertical axis are investigated in this paper. From the field of vehicle dynamics it is known that the eigen frequencies of the car body are in the range from 0.7 to 2.0 Hz. Deflections in the order of one wavelength (X-band) or higher are possible at such frequencies. The simulation results for spaceborne SAR systems with integration times in the order of one second show that the shape and azimuth shift of the impulse response depend beside the oscillation frequency and the deflection also on the initial phase of the oscillation. However, at practical applications the main part of the energy could also be reflected by double bounce from the road surface. Thus, further investigations in the topic of vehicle oscillations by using real radar data are necessary. Finally, some basic ideas are presented which enable a reliable separation between along-track velocity and across-track acceleration. For example, the easiest way to separate both just mentioned motion parameters is the use of a road database, from which the information about the motion direction of the assigned vehicle can be extracted. Hence, the accuracy of along-track velocity estimation is mainly given by the accuracy of the estimated across-track velocity and the angle of the road section in relation to the flight path of the SAR platform.

In recent years many powerful techniques and algorithms have been developed to detect moving targets and estimate their motion parameters from single- or multi-channel SAR data. In case of single- and two-channel systems, most of the developed algorithms rely on analysis of the Doppler history. It is known that the Doppler shift relates mainly to ground moving target’s across-track velocity and the Doppler slope to moving target’s along-track velocity and across-track acceleration. In most of the existing algorithms the along-track velocity is calculated by using the estimated Doppler slope (e.g. estimated with a matched filter bank or time-frequency analysis) under the implicit assumption that the across-track acceleration is very small and therefore negligible. Since we want to monitor real and more complex traffic scenarios with a future space-based traffic monitoring system like TRAMRAD, we must know which target accelerations we have to handle in reality. For this reason a car was equipped with an inertial measurement system (IMU) and differential GPS to measure accelerations in all three dimensions during rush-hour traffic. In this paper the results of the acceleration measurements are presented and discussed. The measurement results show that a substantial part of the observed accelerations is significantly higher than 0.1 m/s2. A theoretical analysis (which is verified by detailed simulations) of the Doppler slope shows also that at such higher across-track accelerations a reliable estimation of the along-track velocity by means of a Doppler slope analysis is unemployable in practice. Finally, some basic ideas are presented which overcome this ambiguity problem and enable a reliable separation between along-track velocity and across-track acceleration.

This paper systematically reviews two questions central for environmental impact assessment: What are the relevant environmental impacts of transport? And, are they improving, i.e. what is their overall assessment? We focus on a European approach as illustrated by the ‘Transport and Environment Report-ing Mechanism (TERM)’ of the European Environment Agency. Although this system is in practical operation since 1999, a systematic review of the TERM indicators still identifies numerous points for improvement: Redundant, non-pertinent and non-representative indicators can be eliminated and reduces data demand by a factor of three. Overview can be improved by a classification according to environmental impact categories. These criteria allow to streamline the current twenty-four indicators to a maximum number of seven key indicators.

This paper explores to what extent the ordinal multi-criteria decision aid method ELECTRE III can help in strategic assessments of transport’s environmental performance. The method is particularly well suited when data are poor, when heterogeneous input has to be treated, and where strongly different value judgements occur. The qualitative assessment logic appropriately reveals and facilitates compromise on the important issue, but also clearly identifies its limits. Thus the relevant issues for a subsequent quantitative analysis can well be selected. We propose to consider this approach for a first ranking of environmental issues or planning alternatives to identify issues and options that merit detailed investigations.

“Are we moving in the right direction?” is TERM’s key question on the environmental performance of transport in Europe. Here, we apply ELECTRE III to answer this question, that has been left open ever since. Indicator weights are transferred from Life Cycle Assessment methodology and proposed for discussion. Judging from the indicators provided, the environmental performance from the road vehicles in EU15 may become better if transport’s increasing land take and fragmentation can be halted. Otherwise, improvements do not seem enough to balance the increasing energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions.

The Path Allocation Re-engineering of Timetable Networks for European Railways (PARTNER) project aims to demonstrate a new way of train path allocation and assembly along international corridors towards a faster and more coordinated railway infrastructure capacity management. PARTNER will assist two neighbour infrastructure managers to develop a common understanding of the effects of international train paths. The results of a survey of European infrastructure managers and railway undertakings are one basis of the project work that is discussed in the present chapter. Further, the chapter explains how PARTNER will create a timetable planners virtual network where heterogeneous workstations share information directly, without the need of dedicated central servers.

Considerable support for a shift of transport from individual to public means of transport and better traffic fluidity is expected by dynamic traffic information transmitted to the transport-users by the so-called “new information and communication technologies” (ICT). However, the use of these services remains on a low level while the offer of mobility services is steadily increasing. Based on empirical data for Germany - raised in 2004 by the DLR-Institute of Transport Research – the contribution illustrates in detail the socio-demographic differences between users and non-users and explores if the functions individuals have are relevant for the use of services. Specific attention is given to the “utility problem” which is estimated to be major element for the acceptance of new electronic devices and services. It is assumed that the debate on e-information in transport has been until now too much dominated by technological feasibility on the supply side while the consumer’s requirements – perceived as individual utility have largely been neglected.

Mobility information services are expected to improve the travel process on the individual level thus also supporting a better and even use of transport infrastructures. It seems, however, that these services lack acceptance from the user. Surprisingly, little attention has been addressed so far to the user and his or her assessment of the services’ usefulness and de facto use of existing services. In 2004, a survey was held by the DLR Institute of Transport Research to investigate users’ attitudes and behaviours while using mobility information services. The study shows that there is already a broad knowledge about the existence of services but only little use. If the services are used this happens quite specifically in relation to the trip purpose and the mode of transport. An increase in attractiveness cannot be expected automatically from additional features, but is very much depending on the potential user group.