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The paper examines the current state and development of the Bulgarian economy in 2023, considering domestic and regional factors. We analyze the real sector by tracking GDP, inflation, and unemployment, linking these to EU processes. Emphasis is placed on labour market adjustments in the context of digitalization and transitioning to a climate-neutral economy. The sustainability of the fiscal sector is explored through financing the green and digital transition with EU funds, and the necessary policies to maintain fiscal stability. We discuss foreign trade prospects, considering the economic conditions and expectations for Bulgaria's main trading partners, the high dependence on euro area performance, and the specifics of foreign trade relations. The banking sector and the capital market analysis focus on the implications of European Central Bank monetary policy, regulatory actions of the Bulgarian National Bank, and risks to sector stability in a dynamic macroeconomic environment. Expectations and forecasts for the Bulgarian economy through 2026 are based on assumptions about global economic processes and local challenges. We make economic policy recommendations aimed at preserving the purchasing power of the population's income and restructuring certain fiscal measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the past few years, artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) have become increasingly important in central banks' policy-making and monetary policymaking processes. The global financial crisis of 2008-2009, the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as various other episodes of high economic uncertainty since the turn of the millennium have adjusted central banks to a number of serious challenges and have led to the expansion of these mandates and emerging and exploiting new and extensive data. The study briefly notes on this as a big database (big data) and applications of AI/ML-based techniques that can provide support on monetary policy decisions, especially during times of uncertainty in the economy, referring to the latest research in this area. Also, concrete examples based on the creation of big data and AI/ML techniques applied in the activities of the European Central Bank and other central banks in Europe and the rest of the world are considered and analyzed. The analysis reveals that big data and AI/ML methods have demonstrated successful utility in conducting monetary policy by central banks. Although useful as a complement, these tools cannot be regarded as replacements for conventional data and methods due to issues related to statistics, the ability to interpret outcomes and ethical dilemmas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper examines the current state and development of the Bulgarian economy in 2022 and the first quarter of 2023 considering domestically determined and regional factors and processes. We analyse the real sector of the Bulgarian economy by tracing the dynamics of economic activity (GDP, inflation, and unemployment) considering internal and external factors affecting inflation dynamics and labour market processes. The sustainability of the fiscal sector is viewed through the possibilities of financing the green and digital transition using EU funds and programmes, and the policies needed to preserve the fiscal stability. Prospects for foreign trade are discussed in terms of the economic situation and expectations of Bulgaria's main trading partners, considering the high connectivity with the euro area and the structural specificities of foreign trade relations. The analysis of the financial sector (banking sector and capital market) focuses on the implications of the monetary policy pursued by the European Central Bank and the regulatory actions of the Bulgarian National Bank, as well as on the risks for the stable functioning of the sector in a dynamic macroeconomic environment. Expectations and forecasts for the Bulgarian economy to 2025 are based on key assumptions about the global economic processes and locally determined challenges. Recommendations are made to the national economic policy aimed at preserving the purchasing power of the population's income and the need to restructure certain fiscal measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main goal of the paper is to assess the relationship between inflation, inflation instability and nominal uncertainty in the Bulgarian economy in January 2000 - May 2022. Employing the ARCH model, GARCH-M model, EGARCH model and Granger Causality Test we find a two-way causal relationship between inflation and inflation instability. Initially, inflation provokes inflation instability, and inflation instability provokes inflation consequently. Nominal uncertainty is measured by wavelet analysis, which establishes the presence of nominal uncertainty in the Bulgarian economy. Therefore, at certain lags, the inflation instability is transformed into nominal uncertainty. The empirical evidence raises the question of the effectiveness of the Currency Board Arrangements in Bulgaria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The importance and possibilities of fiscal policy have been neglected by academics and politicians for decades after the macroeconomic revolution of 1970-1980. However, the Great Recession, the crisis in the European Union and the prolonged recession in many European economies have once again put fiscal policy, and especially its stabilizing role, at the centre of expert and public discussions. In countries with a high share of the public sector in the economy and whose monetary policy is constrained by various structural features of the economy and the financial system, the role of fiscal policy is particularly important, and it is a key lever of economic policy. These features characterize most countries in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), which makes this region convenient for analyzing the effectiveness of the fiscal policy. The study empirically establishes the effects of shocks in budget expenditures and tax revenues on GDP in Bulgaria, Estonia and Lithuania for the period 1995-2018, applying the vector autoregression technique known as the Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) as well as other, non-econometric valuation methods. Key factors that affect the dynamics in the size of fiscal multipliers are presented numerically and graphically. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Any anti-crisis macroeconomic policy includes monetary and fiscal policy. The construction of anti-crisis macroeconomic policy in the conditions of a small open economy in a currency board and a virus pandemic raises the question of which measures should be the foundation and which measures should play a complementary macroeconomic role. This issue is extremely important because it predetermines both the efficiency and effectiveness of counter-cyclical policy. This study deals with the structuring of the main and complementary role of the fiscal and monetary policy in the general anti-crisis policy of Bulgaria. The focus is on 2020, looking at the impact of aggregate fiscal multiplier and monetary measures on GDP, based on extrapolation. A mathematical analysis is realized, which leads to quantitative results that illustrate the impact of fiscal and monetary policy on GDP development in a predictable short-term period which covers 2020 on a quarterly basis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is based on outdated personal profiles and classifications for adolescents, the modern theory of education actually stands apart from the children of the 21st century. In the context of this way of understanding are the paradigms for impact that it tolerates. The results are negative and some of them define the presence of children who live in isolation in the shade chosen as a safe place to protect themselves from all the difficulties around them.Absorbed in our own beliefs and lack of competences for effective impact and interaction we do not pay enough attention to the changes. This paper offers an option for empirical work in order by the potential of physical education the children in the shadow to be socialized as effectively as possible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]