1. Modelling and forecasting data with panel vector autoregressive GMM estimation on economic growth and inflation data in 10 ASEAN countries.
- Author
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Irfan, Miftahul, Usman, Mustofa, Warsono, and Wamiliana
- Subjects
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ECONOMIC statistics , *PANEL analysis , *ECONOMIC expansion , *TIME series analysis , *ECONOMIC impact - Abstract
To analyze economic data, it would be better to use panel data (a combination of time series and cross section) because there is a lot of information obtained. One model that is widely used in panel data analysis is the PVAR model because it was able to identify the dynamic effects of the heterogeneity shock of the unobserved variables and their causal effects. PVAR is widely used in data on the economic growth of a region or country. Many factors affect economic growth, one of which is inflation. Inflation and economic growth are two things that influence each other. Economic growth it self can be calculated based on the value of GDP. In this study, Granger causality shows that there is a two-way influence of the two variables. The PVAR model shows that the two variables influence each other but the time effect has a greater influence. Where the GDP rate in the previous year had more influence on the current GDP rate than the inflation rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
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