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This paper attempts to shed new empirical light on infrastructure's role in economic growth using a semiparametric smooth coefficient model to avoid specification problems in some existing studies and admit infrastructure‐induced nonlinearity and parameter heterogeneity. Estimated by a three‐step procedure that controls for endogeneity in both the regressors and the environmental variable (infrastructure), the model is applied to the empirical context of telecommunications infrastructure in a fast‐growing economy, China. The results reveal that telecommunications contribute to output through various sources, namely its neutral and non‐neutral impacts. The total/net effect is positive but largely decreases with telecommunications stocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides a full decomposition of world inequality, as measured by the Gini coefficient, in the period 1970-2009. In particular, using the Analysis of Gini ( ANOGI), the paper describes the evolution of between inequality, within inequality, and the impact of overlapping on both factors. While there is evidence that between inequality in the last decade significantly declined due to the rapid Chinese growth, within inequality and overlapping went in the opposite direction. Furthermore, with the exception of some Asian countries, the rest of the world has not moved significantly. As a result, world inequality remains high by any standard. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Resumen A partir de datos de encuestas de hogares, los autores observan que las primas por calificación aumentaron en toda China entre 1995 y 2002, pero solo en las provincias costeras entre 2002 y 2007, año en que estas también registraron mayor desigualdad salarial y contribuyeron más a la desigualdad salarial urbana total. Según un modelo de efectos fijos estimado, la privatización explica la evolución del primer periodo, y la integración de China en la economía mundial, la del segundo. Reducir la desigualdad exige, según los autores, la reforma del Registro de Población Hukou, que obstaculiza la movilidad de los trabajadores calificados y posiblemente también el crecimiento. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The internationalization of China's currency, the renminbi (RMB), bolsters the growing economic and political influence of China in the Asia‐Pacific region. This paper assesses the evolution of RMB exchange rate comovements against the US dollar (USD) within the region. While the RMB's influence is growing, it is also found to be asymmetric and varying over time depending on the global movement of the USD. The trend is strong when the USD depreciates but fades when the USD appreciates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper reviews the World Trade Organization's analysis of developments in China's trade policy during 2012-14. The review overlaps with the continuing Great Recession and with China's determination to foster a sustainable rate of economic growth. Developments in the country's trade policy include the launching of the Shanghai pilot free trade zone. China faces a series of trade policy-related challenges including the complex process necessary to internationalise the renminbi. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the most impressive changes in the global economy in the past half-century has been China's high and sustained growth and its integration into the global economy. This phenomenal change not only brings huge benefits to the Chinese people, but also exerts a tremendous influence on the rest of the world. How large is China's influence on the global economy? How are various countries/regions affected differently? How are various industries in a country affected differently? Answering these questions is not simple. In this paper, we review the recent literature that attempts to answer these questions. The findings of the survey conducted in this study aim to provide a complete picture of China's global influence and to identify issues that require further analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the presence of Asian competition in the export markets of Belgian manufacturing firms between 1998 and 2010. We focus on the value of exports at the firm level where we consider both the intensive and the extensive margin. Within Asia a distinction is made between China, India, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan. We find that Asian competition matters significantly for Belgian export companies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates how globalisation has affected inflation in China. We estimated standard Phillips curve inflation equations and examined whether globalisation has affected the structure of inflation dynamics as captured by the Phillips curve. Empirical results suggest that the globalisation of the Chinese economy has changed the behaviour of inflation dynamics. In particular, the impact of domestic and global output gaps on domestic inflation in China has changed significantly since 1994. Before 1994, the domestic output gap was a major factor in driving domestic inflation. After 1994, however, the global output gap plays a significant and more important role in affecting domestic inflation. The finding implies that Chinese monetary authorities should specifically take into account the developments in global output in their monetary policymaking process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the relationship between the migration of men from rural China and the educational attainment of their left‐behind children. The importance of migratory timing and duration are addressed. Using survey data, the study found that compared with rural children of nonmigrant parents, rural children of migrant fathers have a lower probability of being enrolled in school. In addition, the relationship between migratory timing, duration, and school enrollment shows an interesting pattern; children whose fathers migrated when they were infants are more likely to be enrolled in school, but children whose fathers migrated before their birth or after they reached school age are less likely to be enrolled in school. Possible explanations for this pattern are provided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates whether political connection can help private firms in China gain access to commercial bank loans. Based on data from the 2012 Nationwide Survey of Private Enterprises in China, it finds that: (i) politically connected firms were more likely to have access to commercial bank loans; (ii) the mechanism for this better access might be that, on the one hand, political connection was used by private firms as a tool to overcome discrimination and/or information asymmetry in the loan market; on the other hand, political connection was seen by banks as a signal of creditworthiness; and (iii) the importance of political connection seems to lie in the connection to the power to govern rather than the mere opportunity to influence policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper has evaluated the WTO trade policy review, and added more information and recent data to examine more closely China's economy and trade. Major trade policies during 2014-16 were summarised as the Belt and Road Initiative, policies facilitating trade and new adjustments to support and promote cross-border e-commence. After evaluating data on China's trade and economic performance, it discussed three challenges the Chinese government needs to deal with in the near future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An introduction to the journal is presented which discusses various papers published within the issue, including one on the application of Pareto distribution to firms' productivity, one on the global influence of Chinese economic development, and another on the export deflation phenomenon.

Using a firm-level database from 1999 to 2008, this paper sheds new light on the industrial dynamics of China's clothing industry, highlighting the multi-scalar process of spatial restructuring primarily driven by differences in the rate of job creation, especially through start-up firms. At the inter-provincial level, 2004 represents a turning point where the industry ceased to be concentrated in coastal areas and began to relocate inland, especially to central provinces. At the intra-provincial level, cities in coastal provinces remained the most attractive locations for start-up companies even after 2004. The results suggest that the regionally decentralised authoritarian regime, intertwined with market forces shaping the multi-scalar process of spatial restructuring, is pivotal to understanding the changing geography of China's apparel industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the effects of a public insurance system, the New Cooperative Medical Scheme (NCMS) on household savings in rural China. We develop a theoretical model in which we explain the impact of health insurance on savings through the impact of health insurance on out-of-pocket (OOP) health expense given the household level of wealth and seriousness of illness. We test the model empirically using data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey. We run endogenous and exogenous quantile regressions to evaluate the effects of NCMS participation on the distributions of household savings and OOP health expense. The impact of NCMS varies with the seriousness of illness. The NCMS induces an increase in OOP health expense for mild illness and, inversely, a decrease in health payments for more serious illnesses. The NCMS also leads to a higher incidence of catastrophic healthcare spending. The impact of the NCMS, given a certain state of illness, also varies with the household level of wealth. Poor households face health expense for both mild and serious illnesses. As the NCMS has opposite effects on the OOP expense for these two kinds of illness, we observe no effect on poor households' precautionary savings. Because the decrease in OOP health expense for mild illness is larger for less poor households, the NCMS induces a decrease in their savings. For the most affluent households, the higher decrease in OOP spending on most moderate illness is dominated by a sharp increase in catastrophic expense, causing an increase in savings. To significantly reduce household savings and enhance household consumption, the NCMS has to offer better coverage against both serious and catastrophic health risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The financial crisis was followed by a period of extraordinary monetary policy easing. This period of quantitative easing and zero interest rate policies had significant effects on financial markets and created a global investment environment dominated by a single global factor of central bank policy. Looking forward, “normal” markets should include: (i) higher interest rates, but lower in the steady‐state than pre‐crisis; (ii) greater cross‐country interest differentials; and (iii) lower cross‐asset return correlations. In this environment, idiosyncratic macroeconomic differences across countries matter more than a “risk on/off” global factor that dominated in the post‐crisis era so that the opportunity set for global macro investors should be better than it has been in the 10 years since the crisis. The future investment environment will not be simply that of the pre‐crisis era but will reflect the evolution of the world economy. No single country in this evolution is more important than China and the changes ahead in China will create both risks and opportunities for investors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rapidly rising wages and renminbi (RMB) revaluation have attracted lively debate about whether China can continue its rapid economic growth by relying on labour‐intensive goods exports. By comparing the competitiveness in labour costs between China and ASEAN countries, with a particular emphasis on unit labour costs, we find that China has lost its competitiveness in labour costs relative to ASEAN countries. However, our results show that some regions in China, such as the northeast and northwest, still have an advantage relative to ASEAN countries. Thus, China can duplicate Akamatsu's Flying Geese Paradigm by transferring labour‐intensive manufacturing industry from its coastal areas to non‐coastal areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using cross-country panel data, this study identifies and discusses major factors contributing to China's strong growth in the past four decades. China's low initial per capita income relative to its own long-run potential, combined with sound policy factors including a high investment rate, strong human capital, high trade openness and improved institutions, enabled the economy to converge with advanced economies in terms of income level. The shift-share analysis with industry-level data shows that strong labour productivity growth in the manufacturing sector largely contributed to China's overall labour productivity growth. Although labour reallocation from agriculture to the services sector made a positive contribution to aggregate labour productivity growth, labour productivity growth in the services sector itself was negative over the 1980-2010 period. China's average potential GDP growth is predicted to decline significantly in the coming decade, to 5%-6% and fall further to 3%-4%-due to the convergence effect and structural problems-unless China substantially upgrades its institutions and policy factors and improves productivity, particularly in its services sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The design of China's foreign direct investment ( FDI) and export promotion policies has intrinsic elements not helpful with the original policy intent to generate spillovers to the wide Chinese economy. Applying panel estimation models to Chinese provincial-level data for 1993-2008, we examine the impacts of China's coastal FDI and exports on its inland regions. We find that the coastal FDI has overall positive inter-regional impacts, while the coastal exports do not. Cooperative joint ventures generate positive impacts, but little for wholly foreign-funded enterprises and even negative for equity joint ventures. The inter-regional impacts do not exhibit any significance and robustness across exporters' ownership status. We attribute these counter-intuitive findings to the protectionist behaviours of state-owned enterprises in equity joint ventures and the prevalence of processing exports. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article draws from the wealth of literature surrounding China's role in global markets. In particular it focuses on the debate regarding China's Lewis turning point and burgeoning market share. This article constructs a theoretical framework surrounding globalisation theory and Richard Freeman's 'great doubling' thesis, and assesses the implications of China's reserve-labour surplus for global labour standards. It reviews a wide range of the literature on related topics, assessing the validity of the data therein. Market signals suggesting the depletion of China's reserve-labour surplus are distorted due to state policy known as hukou, which itself may cause China's Lewis turning point to be pushed further into the future. There is evidence that China can catch up with advanced economies in terms of capital intensive production (although they remain some way from doing so) and that China's crowding out of neighbouring economies' market shares might be seen more accurately as redirection, rather than outright displacement. Finally, this article highlights evidence of a race to the bottom. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone ( SPFTZ) founded one year ago is a trial for China's new round of reform and opening up, which has promised liberalisation on the capital account and trade facilitation as its main objectives. Here, we discuss why China adopted such a pilot zone after three decades of economic development, and explore what the differences are between the SPFTZ and other free trade areas, and developments of the SPFTZ in the past year. We also make a preliminary assessment of the SPFTZ's initial impacts, especially of its impact on China's capital account opening and financial liberalisation. It is possible that the successful practice of the SPFTZ and more pilot policies replicated in China will give rise to a more balanced Chinese economy in the following decade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Regional Science Policy & Practice is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The author comments on the article "Connectivity in East Asia," by D. H. Brooks in the same issue. He claims Brooks is confident on the benefits of connectivity after the global financial crisis showed the disadvantage of export reliance on the Chinese economy. He suggests that Asian economies implement policies that would help boost the productivity and balance its growth sources. He also advises conducting accurate assessments of the costs and benefits of intra-regional integration.

Copyright of International Social Security Review is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The article presents author's views related to State Enterprise Reform in China for improving the economy of China. Topics include role of State owned enterprises (SOEs) in the internationalization of Chinese economy, business funded by SOE through the state-owned banking sector, and contribution of SOE in the economic stabilization of country.

This article uses the theory of uneven and combined development (U&CD) to produce a novel explanation of 'Brexit and Trump' – the two shock political events of 2016. The argument proceeds in three steps. First, we identify the global conjuncture of historical unevenness in which the votes occurred: how the neoliberal transformation of the advanced capitalist countries was synchronized with the radically different process of primitive accumulation in China. Second, we apply the theory of U&CD to this peculiar 'simultaneity of the non‐simultaneous': the 'big country' effects of China's industrialization, we find, were thrice multiplied by its combination with the advanced sectors of the world economy, which accelerated China's take‐off, brought forward its export phase, and widened its export profile at a moment of maximum openness in international trade. Finally, this produced the pattern of development that led to the events of 2016: the resultant trade shocks intensified the internal inequalities of British and American societies in ways that match the geography of the Leave and Trump votes. The analysis has a wider intellectual implication too, for the phenomena of historical unevenness and combination are intrinsic to the history of the global political economy; and the theory of U&CD therefore has a unique contribution to make to the field of International Political Economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: On 11 August 2015, China revamped its procedure for setting the official central parity of the renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar. Our empirical investigation suggests that the intertemporal dynamics of China's central parity shifted after this policy change, although the deviation of the RMB offshore rate from the central parity and the US dollar index remained the two significant determinants of central parity after the policy change. In contrast, the VIX index only offered explanatory power up to August 2015. Thereafter, the onshore RMB rate and the difference between the 1‐month offshore and onshore RMB forward points have significant impacts on the central parity. While the US dollar index effect remains, we find no evidence of a rate‐fixing role for the RMB exchange rate against the currency basket announced by China in December 2015. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Trust in banks is essential to financial system effectiveness. The present study examines the determinants of trust in banks in China. Using the most recent wave of the World Values Survey, which included information on trust in banks from the survey in China in 2012, we perform ordered logit estimations to investigate the potential influence of a large set of individual and provincial indicators on trust in banks. We observe the influence of certain sociodemographic indicators. Membership in the Communist Party and living in a rural area are negatively associated with trust in banks. Age and satisfaction with financial situation contribute to higher trust in banks, while being married and having a higher level of education tend to lower trust in banks. Access to information regardless of the type of media disseminating the information (newspapers, television or Internet) seem to have no impact on trust in banks. Economic values influence trust in banks. In particular, individuals who favour inequality as an incentive for individual effort or support an expanded government ownership role in the economy tend to trust banks more. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies of the factors that influence housing prices have focused on housing characteristics, governmental policies, environmental goods, macroeconomic and social fundamentals, and so on. However, the effect of industrial structural adjustment on housing prices is worthy of further investigation. In China, it would be helpful to measure this effect to coordinate housing policy and the ‘Made in China 2025’ strategy, which aims to accelerate industrial restructuring. We selected a spatial panel data model to quantify the effects of the industrial rationalisation and sophistication attributable to spatial dependence in housing prices. Estimation results show that structural adjustment has a statistically significant effect on housing prices that varies widely across regions. In descending order, the impact of industrial structure sophistication decreases in eastern, central, western, and northeastern China. This finding suggests that the government should match housing with local industry, prevent excessive real estate development in conventional agricultural areas, and pay close attention to changes in housing prices caused by increasing industrial restructuring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Developing Asia has benefited greatly from the rise of the People's Republic of China (PRC), primarily through the trade channel. The PRC and its neighbours have collectively formed a regional production network, and the PRC is becoming an increasingly important source of final demand. Two empirical techniques are used to examine the likely economic impact of growth deceleration in the PRC on other Asian economies: (1) a single-equation approach that captures the trade channel; and (2) a global vector autoregressive model that captures the effects beyond the trade channel. The results of both analyses confirm that deceleration in the PRC will have a non-negligible negative effect on other economies, especially on East and Southeast Asian economies. An out-of-sample analysis to tease out the effects of slower growth in the PRC from the recent growth performance of selected Southeast Asian economies suggests that the PRC effect is contributing to the growth dynamics of this region but is not always dominant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The wealthy hand-to-mouth are households who are poor in liquid wealth (e.g. cash and checking accounts) and rich in illiquid wealth (e.g. housing and retirement accounts), while the poor hand-to-mouth are poor in both liquid and illiquid wealth. Data from the China Household Finance Survey reveal the following facts about the country's wealthy hand-to-mouth. First, they represent the majority of the hand-to-mouth households in China. Second, they have different wealth portfolios and demographic features from the poor hand-to-mouth. Finally, they have larger consumption responses to income fluctuations than non-hand-to-mouth households, after controlling for endogeneity, income, hand-to-mouth status and other household characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An introduction is presented in which the editor discusses various reports within the issue on topics including dual-track reform strategy adopted in the Chinese economy, impact of financial repression on China's economic growth, and impact of local government debt on leverage ratios.

China has a population three times more than all other transition economies combined, and China's economic development in the last two decades has been nothing short of phenomenal, having overtaken Japan as the world's second-largest economy. China's future economic growth, social and political stability will undoubtedly have an unprecedented influence on the order and fiscal stability of the Chinese people. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For more than three decades, China has managed to combine rapid economic growth with a strictly regulated financial sector. The discrepancy between economic and financial development has raised the question of whether China might be an exception to the so-called finance-growth nexus. This study examines the relationship between finance and growth at the provincial level in China using a new set of measures of capital freedom and financial development. The results indicate that capital freedom and financial development are associated with both higher income and growth rates. In particular, we find that the marketisation of financial institutions and strengthening of legal and government institutions have a particularly strong impact on income and growth in low-income provinces. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the early 2000s, when China joined the World Trade Organization and the Chinese government announced an official 'going out policy' to encourage economic engagement beyond China's territorial borders, growth of Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) and trade with both Africa and Latin America has risen exponentially. Reasons for this rise include (1) Chinese economic actors' view that expansion within these former European colonial regions is critical for accessing primary resources and new markets and (2) leadership in Beijing's view that its legitimacy continues to be based on economic growth. Given China's recent bleak economic forecast and plunging stock market, an increase in Chinese overseas economic engagement in Africa and Latin America warrants a closer examination of the 'Chinese model' of economic expansion in the developing world and implies that the Chinese economy may be more dependent on connections with these regions than has been previously suggested. By distinguishing the political economic forces at play, on the ground, in Africa from those in Latin America, Chinese economic engagement tactics in these regions can be more accurately understood as a set of dependent and negotiated processes that are location specific. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China has developed ambitious bioenergy installation targets as part of its broader goals to increase its renewable energy-generating capacity and decarbonize its economy. A key target feedstock for bioenergy is the 800 million tonnes of agricultural residues that China produces each year. At present, the main financial incentive to support bioenergy generation from agricultural residues is a feed-in-tariff provided for bioenergy that is produced by units that take 80% or more of their feedstock energy from biomass. Although this policy has catalysed the construction of many bioenergy units, there are reports that these projects are experiencing serious financial and technical problems, leading to low operational efficiency and even closure. An alternative option for China's agricultural residues is cofiring with coal in existing power stations. However, this is currently unprofitable for power station operators, as cofiring is not eligible for financial assistance through the bioenergy feed-in-tariff. In the light of China's ambitious target to install 30 GW of bioenergy generation capacity by 2020, this study investigates the extent to which extension of the bioenergy feed-in-tariff to include cofiring could contribute towards this goal. The results suggest that 39% of China's straw energy resources are located within 50 km of a power station. Assuming cofiring ratios of up to 10% coal energy replacement, an annual 89-117 TWh of electricity could be generated by cofiring agricultural residues collected within 50 km radii of power stations. If China extends its bioenergy subsidies to include cofiring, an annual 62-92 TWh can be produced at an internal rate of return of 8% or more. This equates to 42-62% of the bioenergy generation that China might expect if it met its 2020 target of installing 30 GW of bioenergy capacity. Overall, this indicates a strong case for the Chinese government to extend its existing bioenergy feed-in-tariff to include cofiring at low energy replacement ratios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We conjecture that a 'secondary services boom' is primarily responsible for the widespread nature of the gains in employment during Australia's recent 'China boom'. An economy-wide model provides numerical theory for constructing hypotheses, which are tested econometrically. Predictions that include a services expansion and de-industrialisation are tested against pre-boom data and out-of-sample simulations through the boom. The secondary services boom appears clearly in both income and employment, though the effects on manufacturing are ambiguous, with stronger-than-hypothesised observed performance, suggesting that changes in industrial structure and the composition of assistance have favoured surviving manufacturing firms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We propose a special panel quantile regression model with multiple stochastic change-points to analyze latent structural breaks in the short-term post-offering price-volume relationships in China's growth enterprise market where the piecewise quantile equations are defined by change point indication functions. We also develop a new Bayesian inference and Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation approach to estimate the parameters, including the locations of change points, and put forth simulation-based posterior Bayesian factor tests to find the best number of change points. Our empirical evidence suggests that the single change point effect is significant on quantile-based price-volume relationships in China's growth enterprise market. The lagged initial public offering (IPO) return and the IPO volume rate of change have positive impacts on the current IPO return before and after the change point. Along with investors' gradually declining hot sentiment toward a new IPO, the market index volume rate of change induces the abnormal short-term post-offering IPO return to move back to the equilibrium. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rise of China as an economic power has led to concern in many Asian counties that this development poses a threat to their ability to export. The empirical support for this remains inconsistent, however. One explanation for these inconsistencies includes biases that follow from the use of a gravity model specified in an a-theoretical manner. We study the effect of the Chinese exports growth using the empirical framework outlined by Baldwin and Taglioni (2006). We report evidence of a positive relationship between Chinese and its Asian neighbours' exports, with countries with greater endowments of human capital benefiting most from this growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's economic presence in the Caribbean has grown significantly in the last decade. The growing economic presence of China in the Caribbean is evident in China's exports and development assistance to the region. Caribbean exports to China have not significantly increased; in fact, they declined during the period 2006-09. This is in contrast to the growth of exports from Latin America and the rest of the world and represents a missed opportunity for Caribbean exporters. The potential for further growth in economic relations between China and the Caribbean lies in trade including services, foreign investment and tourism. The pattern of trade, investment and development assistance in the Caribbean is very different from that in Latin America, and therefore it is misleading to conflate the two regions and draw an inference of similarity beyond very broad trends as is the case of the literature on the economic presence of China in Latin America. The contrast is vividly evident in the fact that China is now the largest trade partner of some Latin American countries but remains a small fraction of the Caribbean's trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Overview: US on track but mounting uncertainty over China We forecast world GDP growth of 2.5% this year - down slightly from 2014 - before a pick-up to 2.9% in 2016 and just above 3% in 2017-18. Our 2015 forecast is slightly below last month's 2.6% (and down from 2.9% at the beginning of the year due to downgrades to our forecasts for China and the US)., The ongoing fall in commodity prices, with oil now below US$50pb, will keep inflationary pressures muted and mean that interest rates can remain low for even longer in many countries. This should boost consumption in most developed economies, but could further disrupt growth in commodity producers., But China is casting a major cloud over the global economy, denting regional and global trade and investment. We now think that Chinese growth could fall below 6% in 2016. Moreover, despite interest rate cuts, the risks in China are on the downside given the slide in the stock market and the strength of the CNY over the last year. The move to devalue the CNY in August suggests that growth may be weaker than reported, and be followed by further currency falls., The US economy remains a global growth engine, with growth set to accelerate to 2.7% in H2 and 2015 growth seen at 2.3%. Further progress in labor markets along with a gradual rebound in inflation will probably lead to a September rate hike., In the Eurozone, growth is expected to rise slowly as fears about a Grexit have eased (albeit there will inevitably be further tensions). This should mean that investment and exports (the latter helped by the weaker euro) can take over as main drivers of growth., Among the main emerging markets, Brazil and Russia are under even more pressure than China. Interest rates in Brazil were hiked again last month despite the economy being in recession, while in Russia the renewed slide in oil prices and ruble depreciation could halt interest rate cuts and may choke off hopes for a modest recovery next year., On balance, the most negative global risks have eased a little over the last month. But the problems in China and lower commodity prices mean world growth will rely more heavily on the developed economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A new wave of regional trade negotiations have sprung up in the Asia- Pacific region. China faces challenges and opportunities simultaneously. On the one hand, if China is excluded from major regional trade agreements, such as Trans-Pacific Partnership, it may hurt China's future growth. On the other hand, China can utilise the opportunities of regional trade negotiations to shape the new rules of international trade from the very early stage. Regional trade negotiations are also important for China because it needs further opening up to facilitate the domestic economic reform. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Loosely derived from Henry George's theory that land speculation creates boom-bust cycles, a real-assets model of economic crises is developed. In this model, land prices play a central role, and three hypothesized mechanisms are proposed by which swings of land prices affect the entire economy: construction on marginal sites, partial displacement of circulating capital by fixed capital investment, and the over-leveraging of bank assets. The crisis of 2008 is analyzed in these terms along with other examples of sudden economic contractions in U.S. history, recent European experience, and global examples over the past 20 years. Conditions in China in 2014 are examined and shown to indicate a likely recession in that country in 2015 because its banks are over-leveraged with large-scale, under-performing real estate loans. Finally, alternative methods of preventing similar crises in the future are explored. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Exploring the cause-and-effect relationship between economic sectors and water resources is important to China. This study implemented a factor decomposition analysis by weighted average decomposition (WAD) model on the changes of Chinese virtual water (VW) consumption between 2002 and 2007, which includes both direct water consumption (consumed to produce final products) and indirect water consumption (consumed to produce intermediate products). The change in VW consumption is decomposed into three determinant factors: technological effect, economic structural effect and the products' scale effect. The results show that the volume of VW consumption in China has decreased from 5.92 × 1011 m3 in 2002 to 5.17 × 1011 m3 in 2007, which is mainly because of the technological effect (-5.48 × 1011 m3). The increase in net VW exports is mainly due to the economic structure effect (6.19 × 109 m3) and the fast growth of exports (3.49 × 1010 m3). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's rapid economic growth in the past few decades has been accompanied by huge increases in energy demand. The Chinese energy sector faces the multiple challenges of mobilizing huge investment to keep energy supplies in line with increases in demand, securing international oil and gas supplies to meet the widening gap between domestic demand and supply, and reducing environmental pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. Identifying China's approaches toward ensuring a sustainable energy future in the last two decades and assessing their effectiveness can be of great value to the future of energy policy-making in China, as well as to other developing countries facing similar challenges. This article gives a brief overview and assessment of the Chinese approaches toward ensuring a sustainable future. It starts with a description of the challenges facing China in securing universal, clean, affordable and reliable energy supplies, and the evolution of China's strategies for energy development since 1990. On the basis of an empirical review of the different policies and measures taken by the government over time, it explains China's approach to achieving the different aspects of a sustainable energy future. It then uses eight indicators to assess China's progress in improving the sustainability of its energy system. This article finally discusses some aspects that could be improved and the new directions and initiatives China is taking to tackle new issues in its energy development. WIREs Energy Environ 2014, 3:409-423. doi: 10.1002/wene.101 For further resources related to this article, please visit the . Conflict of interest: The authors have declared no conflicts of interest for this article. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China is transforming itself and the world. This article highlights some of the critical issues facing China, which are discussed in detail by leading scholars in the area in this collection of surveys on the Chinese economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the past two decades or so, the field of Chinese economic history has become bigger, more colourful, and more diversified than ever before. This article reviews the new development in scholarship in the filed of Chinese economic history. Apart from the lingering debate on China's performance in pre-modern times (pre-1750), China's growth and development in the 19th and 20th centuries has attracted more scholarly attention and thus has become increasingly more important in the understanding of China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article talks about the need of building efficient financial system in China by adopting dual-track systems for improving economic condition of China. Topics include roles and behavior of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and state-owned banks (SOBs); government reform efforts including developments of digital finance in China; and Peking University Digital Finance Development Index for tracking the progress of digital finance in various sectors.

Abstract: The present study aims to explore the relationship between the sovereign yield curve and fiscal behaviour in China. The Chinese Government is very powerful, and fiscal policy plays an important role in China's economy. A dynamic Nelson–Siegel model is adopted to estimate the level, slope and curvature factors of the yield curve. Three aspects of fiscal behaviour, including government spending, revenue and budget balance, are considered. Significant relationships between fiscal behaviour and the sovereign yield curve are found and described in the present study. Higher government expenditure raises the level and slope factors of the yield curve, while increasing government revenue reduces the level factor and enhances the slope factor. Furthermore, improved budget balance decreases the level and slope factors of the yield curve. Fiscal behaviour also interacts with the macroeconomy in China. Fiscal policy is insensitive to price surges in contrast to the strong responses of monetary policy to higher inflation. In addition, crowding‐out effects of government spending are demonstrated in this study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The author offers his views on the article "Campaign-Style Enforcement and Regulatory Compliance" by Nicole Ning Liu, Carlos Wing-Hang Lo, Xueyong Zhan, and Wei Wang. Topics include the article's description of the role of campaign-style enforcement in changing cadre-level behavior in Chinese environmental policy implementation, the reliance of the article on the self-interested reporting of the individuals charged with implementation.

This study examines the impacts of unexpected exchange rate movements of Chinese renminbi ( CNY/ USD) on stock returns of Standard & Poor's 500 corporations. To gain better insight into the long-standing exposure puzzle concerning the divergence between theoretical and empirical investigation and the critical issue regarding the determinants of exposure, the time variation and asymmetry property associated with foreign exchange exposure are further taking into account. We also broaden the scope of analysis to investigate unexpected risk exposure at 10 economic sectors in compliance with Global Industry Classification Standard. Unlike those from the static analysis or dynamic ones with the ordinary least squares model, the empirical findings provide additional concrete evidence that unexpected exchange rate exposure varies substantially across time and market circumstances when using the quantile regression with a rolling method. Furthermore, our dynamic analysis not only supports the existence of industrial effects across different economic sectors, but also provides strong evidence that financial factors, such as size, debt ratio and book to market ratio, have a significant impact on exposure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]