Future of global investing: What is old, what is new, and China's role.

The financial crisis was followed by a period of extraordinary monetary policy easing. This period of quantitative easing and zero interest rate policies had significant effects on financial markets and created a global investment environment dominated by a single global factor of central bank policy. Looking forward, “normal” markets should include: (i) higher interest rates, but lower in the steady‐state than pre‐crisis; (ii) greater cross‐country interest differentials; and (iii) lower cross‐asset return correlations. In this environment, idiosyncratic macroeconomic differences across countries matter more than a “risk on/off” global factor that dominated in the post‐crisis era so that the opportunity set for global macro investors should be better than it has been in the 10 years since the crisis. The future investment environment will not be simply that of the pre‐crisis era but will reflect the evolution of the world economy. No single country in this evolution is more important than China and the changes ahead in China will create both risks and opportunities for investors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]