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"Rural Australia" has long been a special site of political contestation. Staking the terms of public depictions of "the rural", "the bush", or "country life" is a constitutive thread running through Australian settler colonial identity and a cornerstone of national electoral politics. This paper analyses major News Corporation media outlets' presentation of an evolving political campaign, comparing contesting representations of farming and rural Australia deployed by the Morrison Coalition government and advocacy group Farmers for Climate Action, in the period between the government's re-election in May 2019 and July 2021. The paper steps through the key tactical discursive moves made by these contesting parties. It argues that in their depictions of rural Australia there are two important features that these perspectives share. Both embrace a discourse of increased agricultural productivity inspired by high-tech innovation, and both are silent on the related social and economic transformations that undergird the "crisis" of the rural. Consequently, public political contestation over rural policy unfolds without engaging transforming structural arrangements that fundamentally organise work and life on the land. • Presents comparative depictions of rurality by the Australian prime minister and advocacy group Farmers for Climate Action. • Political contests over the representation of the rural during the time of accelerating climate change are shown to have strong temporal framings. • Both government and Farmers for Climate Action embrace a discourse of increased agricultural productivity inspired by high-tech innovation and both are silent on socio-economic transformations. • Farmers for Climate Action have made significant steps towards normalising the idea that farming and climate activism go hand in hand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China has made substantial investment in agricultural research and development (R&D) to promote technological change (TC). Although the role of TC in enhancing agricultural production and mitigating environmental impacts is widely recognized in separate contexts, knowledge about its' effects on food security and the environment, especially with a focus on China, is still lacking. This study uses an agro-economic optimization model to assess the impact of TC on food security and climate change mitigation. Our results indicate that TC plays an important role in improving agricultural productivity, which, in turn, contributes to a comparative advantage in agricultural trade. It also strengthens food security through lowering food prices. By contrast, a higher TC level increases greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, albeit marginally, due to higher agricultural production for exports. This indicates a rebound effect of agricultural productivity on GHG emissions. Therefore, additional efforts are required in China to improve food security without compromising GHG mitigation. • Technological change (TC) enhances China's agricultural production and comparative advantage in trade. • A higher level of TC within China's agriculture and land-use (AFOLU) sectors could contribute to lowering food prices in China. • Increase in TC within China's AFOLU sectors can causes trade-offs between food security and climate change mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global food security faces increasing challenges from the changing climate. Changes of agricultural output from some of the most productive regions such as the US Corn Belt can largely affect the world's food market. Developing predictive understanding of the agricultural risk of climate change and potential mitigation strategies is critical for the global food security. The objective of this study is to assess the responses of maize and soybean yield to projected climate changes in the Corn Belt, identify the shifting environment stressors on crop yield, and tackle potential climate adaptation strategies. We drive a process-based model, the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer, with high-resolution statistically downscaled and bias-corrected historical and future climates from ten CMIP5 models in the MACA-2 database. The multi-model ensemble mean suggests a 12% decrease of maize yield by mid-century and 40% by late century, with a high degree of model consensus in the direction of changes; for individual models, the projected decrease of maize yield by late century ranges from <5% to over 80%, with the worst crop outcome corresponding to the most sensitive climate models. Soybean yield is projected to increase by midcentury with a high degree of model consensus, but such consensus is lost by late century as some projections shift to significant decreases. Crop yield in the Corn Belt is currently limited by water stress, but is projected to be increasingly limited by heat stress as well after the midcentury. The mounting heat stress will drive the most productive zone for maize to shift from central to northern part of the Corn Belt, but the projected increase in the northern states cannot fully compensate for the decrease in the south, causing the total production to decrease if agricultural practice stays the same. Earlier planting can alleviate only a small fraction of the heat-induced crop loss in a warmer climate. Climate change will (at least partially) offset the yield boost caused by agricultural technology and intensification. This study advances our predictive understanding of crop yield responses to climate change, and suggests that a multitude of strategies will be needed to address the climate change challenges for the U.S. agriculture. [Display omitted] • Yield decreases of 40% and 22% are projected for rain-fed maize and soybean respectively in the US Corn Belt by late century. • The primary limiting factor for the Corn Belt crop yield is projected to shift from water stress to heat stress after midcentury. • A northward shift or expansion of the most productive zone is projected. • The projected increase of yield and production in the northern states cannot fully compensate for the decrease in the south. • Earlier planting time can partially, but not completely, mitigate the heat-induced crop loss in the southern states. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Climate change is poised to exacerbate coastal erosion. Recent research has presented a novel strategy to tackle this issue: dual wave farms, i.e., arrays of wave energy converters with the dual function of carbon-free energy generation and coastal erosion mitigation. However, the implications of sea level rise – another consequence of climate change – for the effectiveness of wave farms as coastal defence elements against shoreline erosion have not been studied so far. The objective of this work is to investigate how the coastal defence performance of a dual wave farm is affected by sea level rise through a case study (Playa Granada, southern Iberian Peninsula). To this end, a spectral wave propagation model, a longshore sediment transport formulation and a one-line model are combined to obtain the final subaerial beach areas for three sea level rise scenarios: the present situation, an optimistic and a pessimistic projection. These scenarios were modelled with and without the wave farm to assess its effects. We find that the dual wave farm reduces erosion and promotes accretion regardless of the sea level rise scenario considered. In the case of westerly storms, the dual wave farm is particularly effective: erosion is transformed into accretion. In general, and importantly, sea level rise strengthens the effectiveness of the dual wave farm as a coastal protection mechanism. This fact enhances the competitiveness of wave farms as coastal defence elements. Highlights • Dual wave farms for renewable energy production and coastal protection. • Assessment of the performance of dual wave farms under sea level rise (SLR). • SLR strengthens the effectiveness of wave farms as coastal defence mechanisms. • Better strategy for mitigation of climate change than hard engineering solutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • A FEW nexus analysis in the Lower Colorado River Basin indicates that food production is not controlled by water availability. • Rigid water law in the basin limits resource manager ability to respond to future economic or environmental stresses. • Resource governance plays a strong formative role in the analysis and implementation of FEW nexus management strategies. • Consistent watershed-level data would improve understanding of resource governance, management, and production dynamics. Abstract The food-energy-water (FEW) nexus concept has emerged as a powerful approach to address the social and environmental challenges created by land and climate change. We present an analysis of the impact of the governance structure of the Lower Colorado River Basin (LCRB) on the implementation of the FEW nexus concept. Specifically, we quantified the linkages between food, energy, and water systems and then used two different future scenarios: (1) drought and (2) increased demand for alfalfa to look for the emergence of resource scarcity and/or vulnerabilities. Our results indicate that fluctuations in food production are not controlled by water availability but by the governance structure. Additionally, there is proportionally more water used for food than energy, and more energy used to move water to cities than water for agricultural production. Analysis of the production scenarios indicate tipping points of food, energy, and water resources based on climatic and consumptive trends that are not yet addressed by the rigid water laws in the LCRB. These results highlight the need for resource governance to play a strong formative role in the analysis and implementation of FEW nexus management strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The climatic events and increasing population are impacting the food system's resilience. The significance of a looming food crisis may be more pronounced in a country like Pakistan. Therefore, to manage farm production sustainably, this research infers the Value-Belief-Norm (VBN) theory to analyze small growers' pro-environmental adaptation and mitigation behaviors on the farm. The data of 250 samples were collected from the Sindh province of Pakistan. We applied the partial least squire modeling (PLS-SEM) to examine the farmers' pro-environmental behaviors towards climate change mitigation and adaptation practices in farm productions. The results provide evidence that farmers' pro-environmental personal norms R2(80.2%), explain mitigation attitudes (41.2%), and (29.0%) adaptation behaviors of growers. All antecedents of VBN theory reveal robustness and significantly positive relationships except for egoistic values. Thus, pro-environmental personal norms predicted the farmers-orientation behaviors significantly toward the climate variability adaptation practices and mitigation attitudes. Moreover, findings indicate that the VBN theory enacts well when expounding altruistic values and biospheric values of farmers' mitigation attitudes and adaptation behaviors. Despite guaranteeing food security, this research suggests designing policy tools to encourage small growers' pro-environmental behaviors in response to climatic changes to increase sustainable agricultural production in the region. • This research used the Value-Belief-Norm (VBN) theory in the context of climate change mitigation and adaptation behaviors in farm production. • This study empirically examines the determinants of growers' pro-environmental personal norms towards mitigation and adaption via partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM). • The VBN theory provides evidence that farmers' pro-environmental personal norms R2(80.2%) explain mitigation attitudes (41.2%) and (29.0%) adaptation behaviors toward climate change. • Thus, pro-environmental personal norms predicted the farmers-orientation behaviors significantly toward the climate variability adaptation practices and mitigation attitudes. • This study implicates future policies that promote effective and sustainable pro-environmental behavioral changes in agriculture while ensuring regional food security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon neutrality objectives affect meteorology and ozone (O 3) concentration in China, both of which would influence crop yields, thus food security. However, the joint impact of these two factors on crop yields in China is not clear. In this study, we investigated future trends in China's maize, rice, soybean, and wheat yields under a carbon-neutral scenario considering both regional emission reduction and global climate change in 2060. By combining a process-based crop model (Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator, APSIM) with O 3 exposure equations, the impacts of regional emission reduction and global climate change were studied. The results suggest that regional emission reduction dominated the increase in yield by reducing the O 3 concentration, whereas global climate change led to yield loss mainly through meteorological factors. The national yield decreases for the four crops ranged from 1.0% to 38.0% owing to meteorological factors, while O 3 reduction resulted in additional yield increases ranging from 2.8% to 7.0%. The combined effect of carbon neutrality, which included both meteorological factors and O 3 concentration, resulted in changes to the yields of maize, rice, soybean, and wheat of +4.3%, -7.3%, -24.0%, and -31.7%, respectively. It seems that crop production loss caused by meteorological factors in 2060 would be mitigated by the O 3 reduction. Given the advantages of declining O 3 concentration, regional emission reduction would likely benefit crop growth. However, global climate change may offset the benefits and threaten food production in China. Therefore, more strict emission reduction policies and global climate change mitigation actions are necessary to ensure food security in China. [Display omitted] • Low carbon emissions would lead to increased crop yields in China. • Crop yield loss is mitigated owing to ozone decreases induced by emission reduction. • Global climate change would cause yield loss mainly through meteorological factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The importance of increasing crop production while reducing resource inputs and land-use change cannot be overstated especially in light of climate change and a human population growth projected to reach nine billion this century. Mutualistic plant–microbe interactions offer a novel approach to enhance agricultural productivity while reducing environmental costs. In concert with other novel agronomic technologies and management, plant-microbial mutualisms could help increase crop production and reduce yield losses by improving resistance and/or resilience to edaphic, biologic, and climatic variability from both bottom-up and top-down perspectives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Irrigated agriculture is strongly affected by climate change and management. • Management adaptation may achieve sustainable agricultural production by the 2030s. • Climate change mitigation will determine agricultural productivity by the 2080s. • Further adaptation or strong mitigation is needed to secure food productivity. Future irrigated agriculture will be strongly affected by climate change and agricultural management. However, the extent that agricultural management adaptation can counterbalance negative climate-change impacts and achieve sustainable agricultural production remains poorly quantified. Such quantification is especially important for the Indus basin, as irrigated agriculture is essential for its food security and will be highly affected by increasing temperatures and changing water availability. Our study quantified these effects for several climate-change mitigation scenarios and agricultural management-adaptation strategies using the state-of-the-art VIC-WOFOST hydrology–crop model. Our results show that by the 2030s, management adaptation through improved nutrient availability and constrained irrigation will be sufficient to achieve sustainable and increased agricultural production. However, by the 2080s agricultural productivity will strongly depend on worldwide climate-change mitigation efforts. Especially under limited climate-change mitigation, management adaptation will be insufficient to compensate the severe production losses due to heat stress. Our study clearly indicates the limits to management adaptation in the Indus basin, and only further adaptation or strong worldwide climate-change mitigation will secure the Indus' food productivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Climate-resilient agriculture (CRA) aims to address hunger and poverty. • We provided six principles for the selection of assessment indicators for CRA. • Developed a framework in quantifying the climate-resilient agriculture. • The assessment framework combined four dimensions and has 71 evaluation indicators. • The framework provides a quantitative tool to evaluate CRA in various scenarios. Climate change threatens agricultural production and leads to an increasing contradiction between food supply and needs. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agricultural activities will exacerbate climate change in the future. Solving food security has become a major challenge around the world. The development of climate-resilient agriculture (CRA) is critical to address or slow climate change and is also helpful to improve agricultural quality and efficiency. Based on a review of previous studies and a deep understanding of CRA goals, this paper introduced a comprehensive assessment framework to evaluate CRA. This assessment framework combined four dimensions, i.e., agricultural productivity, farmer income, climate adaptability, and the green development level, and has 71 evaluation indicators. The highlights of this framework are to analyze the impacts of climate change on agricultural development and to stress the synergy of mitigation and adaptation strategies. All indicators represent various factors related to the development of CRA and have been used in previous studies. Therefore, the comprehensive assessment framework can be used as an evaluation tool for analyzing the changes in agroecosystem resilience under climate change, which is also helpful to implement scientific management to ensure sustainable agricultural development and food security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change impacts crop productivity as atmospheric conditions and water supply change, particularly in intensive cropping areas. This study used the validated AquaCrop Model, which was run with downscaled daily climate data produced by SDSM and CanESM2. The changes in the potential grain yield of winter wheat and summer maize and water budget during the cropping seasons were estimated for the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain (3H Plain) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The results show that the potential yield of winter wheat is increasing with similar spatial patterns in the 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s, with much of the increase is distributed in Shandong and northeastern parts of Henan. During the winter wheat growth period, the water budget deficit will likely improve from −210 mm in the 2030s to −202 mm in 2080s under RCP4.5 and from −206 mm in the 2030s to −191 mm in 2080s under RCP8.5 across the 3H Plain. The water budget during the winter wheat period will continue to be in deficit in the north 3H Plain and improvements are estimated mostly in the lower southern areas of the Plain. The summer maize potential yield is estimated to increase from the baseline period, but yields will decrease by 0.81%, 1.19%, and 2.10% in the 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively, under RCP8.5 compared to RCP4.5. During the summer maize growth period, the water budget is also estimated to improve from 109 mm in 2030s to 126 mm in 2080s under RCP4.5 and 107 mm in the 2030s to 163 mm in 2080s under RCP8.5. This increase is mainly estimated in the central and south of the 3H Plain. The estimated ET c of winter wheat shows no significant decrease, while the reduction of 6 mm and 13 mm for summer maize is observed under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The study provides scientific evidence to devise adaptation and mitigation climate change strategies for agricultural productivity and water resource management. • The potential winter wheat yield will increase under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. • The increase in wheat yield follows a similar spatial pattern under both RCP scenarios. • The potential summer maize yield will decrease under RCP8.5 as compared to RCP4.5. • Water deficit for wheat will remain similar to the present with increased temperature. • Water budget during summer will significantly improve in the latter half of this century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Climate has been changing in the last three decades and will continue changing regardless of any mitigation strategy. Agriculture is a climate-dependent activity and hence is highly sensitive to climatic changes and climate variability. Nevertheless, there is a knowledge gap when agricultural researchers intend to assess the production of minor crops for which data or models are not available. Therefore, we integrated the current expert knowledge reported in the FAO-EcoCrop database, with the basic mechanistic model (also named EcoCrop), originally developed by Hijmans et al. (2001). We further developed the model, providing calibration and evaluation procedures. To that aim, we used sorghum (Sorghum bicolor Moench) as a case study and both calibrated EcoCrop for the sorghum crop and analyzed the impacts of the SRES-A1B 2030s climate on sorghum climatic suitability. The model performed well, with a high true positive rate (TPR) and a low false negative rate (FNR) under present conditions when assessed against national and subnational agricultural statistics (min TPR=0.967, max FNR=0.026). The model predicted high sorghum climatic suitability in areas where it grows optimally and matched the sorghum geographic distribution fairly well. Negative impacts were predicted by 2030s. Vulnerabilities in countries where sorghum cultivation is already marginal are likely (with a high degree of certainty): the western Sahel region, southern Africa, northern India, and the western coast of India are particularly vulnerable. We highlight the considerable opportunity of using EcoCrop to assess global food security issues, broad climatic constraints and regional crop-suitability shifts in the context of climate change and the possibility of coupling it with other large-area approaches. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Characterizing the carbon footprint (CF) of agricultural production offers key information for pursuing low carbon agriculture and food consumption. While China has long strived for increasing food production capacity for its large and still growing population, the high emissions cost, especially from the over use of agro-chemicals, has been widely debated for the last decade. However, the CF of China''s crop production has not yet been assessed. This paper reports a basic estimate of CF of crop production using national statistical data available for the period of 1993–2007. The dataset includes the amount of individual agricultural inputs (fertilizer, pesticide, diesel, plastic film, etc.), cultivation area and total of production whole crops. Using the emission factors estimated for China''s agricultural features and available abroad, the mean overall CF of China''s crop production was estimated to be 0.78±0.08tCEha−1 yr−1 and 0.11±0.01tCEt−1 yr−1, for land use and bulk production respectively. For the duration the data covered, the carbon intensity under cultivation land use was seen to increase since 1993. Among the total, fertilizer induced emissions exerted the largest contribution of ∼60%, being 0.45±0.04tCE per ha and 0.07±0.01tCE per ton of production, on average. Compared to the UK, the estimated overall CF of China''s crop production was higher in terms of cultivation land use. While there was a significant positive correlation of carbon intensity with total production, carbon efficiency was shown in a decreasing trend during 2003-2007. Therefore, low carbon agriculture should be pursued, and the priority should be given to reducing fertilizer application in agriculture of China. However, for developing best management practices for climate change mitigation in crop production of China, further studies of crop and regional specific CFs and the variation with climate conditions and agricultural managements are needed. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Climate change mitigation requires a transition towards a more sustainable system which eventually achieves circularity and climate-neutrality in all sectors, including agriculture. Despite the consensus about this ultimate goal, there is no unique way forward to achieve it. In this regard, usual questions that policy-makers face without having a clear answer relate to the potential deployment of new technology, the possibility of limiting certain economic activities, the externalities that will emanate from their interventions, etc. The aim of this study is to support the policy debate by exploring the potential impacts of several pathways that Dutch agriculture could follow for this transition. This paper presents a methodological approach on how to translate policy objectives into sustainability requirements using a linear programming (LP) model. This model which delivers insights on the optimal size of several agricultural activities has been used for facilitating stakeholder participation in scenario design. By using the Netherlands as a case study, an integrated assessment of several pathways that the Dutch agricultural sector could follow was carried out to contribute to the design of the future development strategy. The outcomes of the multidisciplinary assessment shows that it is feasible to meet long-term (2050) climate and environmental objectives for Dutch agriculture along different pathways. More specifically, limiting the size of the livestock sectors turned out to be necessary to achieve the intended emissions reductions. As a result the land use changed, with an increase in (agro-)forestry being unavoidable when strict climate neutrality would be required. • Dutch agriculture can meet long-term (2050) climate and environmental objectives. • Agricultural scenarios are assessed by combining economic and environmental models. • Limiting livestock numbers and afforestation are key to meet climate goals. • Reducing the size of the livestock sector lead to limited adjustments in prices. • The trade position of Dutch agriculture could change when pursuing climate goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We introduce a multistep modeling approach for studying optimal management of fertilizer inputs in a situation where soil nitrogen and carbon dynamics and water and atmosphere externalities are considered. The three steps in the modeling process are: (1) generation of the data sets with a detailed simulation model; (2) estimation of the system models from the data; (3) application of the obtained dynamic economic optimization model considering inorganic and organic fertilizer inputs. We demonstrate the approach with a case study: barley production in southern Finland on coarse and clay soils. Our results show that there is a synergy between climate change mitigation and water protection goals, and a trade-off between pollution mitigation and crop production goals. If a field is a significant source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and an insignificant source of water pollution, atmospheric externalities dominate the water externalities, even for a relatively low social cost of carbon (SCC). If a field is a significant source of water pollution, the SCC would have to be very high before atmospheric externalities dominate water externalities. In addition, an integrated nutrient management system appears better than a system in which only inorganic or organic fertilizer is used, although manure is not a solution to agriculture's GHG emissions problem. Moreover, GHG emissions and nitrogen and carbon leaching mitigation efforts should first be targeted at coarse soils rather than clay soils, because the marginal abatement costs are considerably lower for coarse soils. • Economic study including N and C soil dynamics and water and climate externalities. • We constructed large systems of models from simulated data for economic optimization. • Water externalities must be considered in parallel to atmospheric externalities. • There is a synergy between climate change mitigation and water protection goals. • The marginal abatement costs are lower for coarse soils than for clay soils. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]