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What is the relationship between Indigenous peoples and violent reactions to contemporary states? This research explores differing, culturally informed notions of attachment to land or place territory. Mechanistic ties and organic ties to land are linked to a key distinction between Indigenous peoples and non-Indigenous peoples. Utilizing the Minorities at Risk (MAR) data set, a subset relationship is explored addressing propensity for Indigenous peoples to rebel against state encroachment of their lands. The results of this research must be considered with the serious limitations of MAR in mind. Within the marginalized groups in the Americas, 28 have an attachment to a place territory. Of these 28 groups, 22 are Indigenous and of the 22 groups, 13 have exhibited some form of rebellious behavior between 1945 and 2003. The power of attachment to place territory, specifically the organic attachment most often displayed by Indigenous peoples of the Americas, is a strong tie surviving 500 years of European encroachment. The findings are indicative of an attachment that Indigenous peoples retain to their specific homelands. The findings suggest a plethora of future research questions. (Contains 8 tables, 3 figures, and 41 notes.)

Role-playing games in natural resource management are currently being tested as research, training, and intervention tools all over the world. Various studies point out their potential to deal with complex issues and to contribute to training processes. The objective of this contribution is to analyze the limits and potentialities of this tool for capacity building in environmental management of stakeholders with low educational levels by comparing various Brazilian experiences. Five games that were developed and used to train local stakeholders or state technicians about specific aspects of new and difficult to understand legislation are compared. The comparison of these experiences is based on (a) an analysis of the materials (game support) provided by the developers, (b) interviews with authors and game developers, and (c) participation in game sessions whenever possible. (Contains 6 tables and 5 figures.)

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Bioenergy could play a major role in decarbonizing energy systems in the context of the Paris Agreement. Large‐scale bioenergy deployment could be related to sustainability issues and requires major infrastructure investments. It, therefore, needs to be studied carefully. The Bioenergy and Land Optimization Spatially Explicit Model (BLOEM) presented here allows for assessing different bioenergy pathways while encompassing various dimensions that influence their optimal deployment. In this study, BLOEM was applied to the Brazilian context by coupling it with the Brazilian Land Use and Energy Systems (BLUES) model. This allowed investigating the most cost‐effective ways of attending future bioenergy supply projections and studying the role of recovered degraded pasture lands in improving land availability in a sustainable and competitive manner. The results show optimizing for limiting deforestation and minimizing logistics costs results in different outcomes. It also indicates that recovering degraded pasture lands is attractive from both logistics and climate perspectives. The systemic approach of BLOEM provides spatial results, highlighting the trade‐offs between crop allocation, land use and the logistics dynamics between production, conversion, and demand, providing valuable insights for regional and national climate policy design. This makes it a useful tool for mapping sustainable bioenergy value chain pathways. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Effects of natural processes on community building and the modification of nature by man's hands are an intrinsic part of the co-production of the landscape between man and nature. However, the interactions of this co-production have scarcely been analyzed. Based on data from the MapBiomas project, an analysis of the variation in land use and cover over 35 years in the Quilombola São Roque and Mãe dos Homens communities in southern Brazil was carried out. The sociogeomorphological units in the study area were established, and its geomorphological units and social units were analyzed and described. There is a prevalence of more than 50% of forest formation. Cluster analysis classified the analyzed variables into two groups, with the first corresponding to forest and grassland formations associated with more natural landscape features. The second group is formed by anthropogenic activities. Social units including traditional communities seem to be more related to the stimulation of forest formation. The action of conservation units influences the variation in land use and land cover. There is a Supplementary Material which explains abbreviations concerning the manuscript. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A regional approach to the study of Brazil's beef industry is increasingly relevant as deforestation takes centre stage in policy debates worldwide. To what extent has beef production expanded toward regions hosting sensitive ecosystems such as the Amazon? Important data limitations remain to answer this question, especially regarding slaughterhouses, fundamental to the beef supply chain. This paper addresses the data gap on slaughterhouse location and history and provides novel regional analysis. We map the beef industry's evolution into Brazil's interior over the last six decades and quantify changes in market concentration between 2006 and 2016. To accomplish this, we triangulated across fiscal and animal sanitation data sources to produce the first longitudinal dataset with information on the opening and closing dates, locations, and production volumes of 2602 slaughterhouses. We show the linear movement of slaughterhouses and cattle herds to the Amazon by tracking their geographical centres of gravity. We also show the clustering pattern of slaughterhouses. Until the 1960s, all the geographical clusters were located south of the capital, Brasília. By the early 2000s, clusters north of Brasília were almost as extensive. Finally, we assessed the degree of market power that the largest beefprocessing companies possess. The results indicate that market concentration increased in regions of more recent settlement further away from the coast, and that it remained relatively stable in states near the coast (Minas Gerais, São Paulo). The results shed light on the relationship between displacement toward the Amazon and Cerrado regions and economic concentration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we explored the association between land use and fish species richness on 52 coastal lagoons in Southeast and South Brazil. We measured the proportion of agriculture and urbanization around lagoons over 26 years and used the coefficient of variation (CV) as a surrogate of the temporal land cover variability. We compiled species occurrences from primary data, from the literature and from museum records, and assigned each recorded species to different habitat use groups: benthic/bottom or water column, and littoral or limnetic zones. In the Southeast, where most lagoons are subject to marine influence, richness was negatively associated to agriculture and positively associated to urbanization. In the South, where freshwater lagoons predominate, richness was negatively associated to urbanization and positively associated to agriculture. The results suggest that fish communities from freshwater coastal lagoons are more sensitive to land use than brackish lagoons. Differently from brackish lagoons, that are colonized by both freshwater and marine species, freshwater lagoons rely on neighboring lagoons as species donors. However, this apparent resilience of the brackish lagoons must be regarded with caution, since the increase in marine connections due to artificial sandbar openings may impair freshwater species with time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Beef, among all foods, has the greatest environmental impact and is associated with several chronic diseases. Brazil is one of the largest consumers of meat in the world, on par with developed countries and, most of its greenhouse gas emissions stem from deforestation and agricultural activities. Therefore, this article aims to project the economic and environmental impacts of reducing beef consumption due to changes in household preferences and an increase in beef taxes, with and without a revenue neutral mechanism (subsidies applied to food, excluding meat). To analyze this, a dynamic interregional Computable General Equilibrium model was employed, incorporating a land use change module and accounting for substitution between different food items in both consumption and production structure across regions within the Brazilian Amazon, Matopiba, and the rest of Brazil. The results show that a 40% reduction in beef consumption distributed between 2022 and 2050 could prevent deforestation on an area of approximately 65,000 km2, potentially mitigating up to 2.8 GtCO₂e (a third of the world's potential mitigation from dietary changes according to the UN). In the scenario with subsidies, the reduction in deforestation is smaller due to incentives provided to certain commodities that use pasture. Preference changes could have a virtually zero impact on GDP by 2050. Conversely, increased beef taxes could result in an overall rise in costs, leading to a negative impact on exports and GDP (subsidies only attenuate). In all scenarios, regional impacts would be heterogeneous, particularly affecting regions highly dependent on the cattle and beef sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: To explore spatiotemporal changes in Hyacinth Macaw Anodorhynchus hyacinthinus distribution and the impacts of land use change over 25 years, across its vast range in central/eastern South America. Location: Brazil, Bolivia and Paraguay, South America, covering almost 3 million km2. Methods: We use a novel, multi‐temporal species distribution model, to combine both year‐specific occurrence records and land use/cover data in a single model that is subsequently projected over a land cover time series. We investigate changes in geographic range over 25 years and potential drivers of range extent at multiple spatial scales (10 and 30 km) and time‐lags (current and 10 years previously). We also assess protected area coverage and impacts from degazettement within the remaining range and highlight priority areas to search for undiscovered populations. Results: The modelled range of the species increased by 75,000 km2 to over 500,000 km2 between 1995 and 2019, during which period agriculture and pasture increased by 600,000 km2 within the species' extent of occurrence. Habitat suitability was influenced most strongly by distribution of palms, forest cover and changes in pasture over 10 years and usually by predictors measured at larger spatial scales. Just 8% of the macaw's modelled range falls within protected areas, and more than 20,500 km2 of protected areas overlapping with the range have been degazetted in the last 40 years. We highlight key areas to search for undiscovered populations in under‐sampled and remote areas, especially led by community citizen science initiatives involving indigenous groups and protected area staff. Main conclusions: Novel modelling methods, combining multi‐temporal occurrence records and land cover data, appropriate for small sample sizes per year, have revealed habitat dynamics and changes to the range of this threatened species over 25 years. The method may have wide applicability for a range of species, including elusive and poorly studied species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to analyze the financial and operational approach to land regularization and financing used in Brazil by an innovative private social enterprise in order to demonstrate that the approach widens the concept fit-for-purpose land regularization to include fit-for-purpose land financing, with relevance for wider efforts in informal settlement regularization and upgrading. In this approach, the enterprise acts as a coordinator and broker to organize the residents of informal settlements to regularize their settlements by negotiating buyouts of the underlying private owners at discounted values, handling titling and registration of the occupants, and coordinating with municipal governments to provide infrastructure. The analysis of parcel-level repayment and price data provides evidence of the sustainability of the business model and increase of property values of the regularized parcels. The results presented from the enterprise's own repayment data demonstrate that under (non-pandemic) historical conditions residents are largely able to pay an affordable monthly payment over 7--10 years to the enterprise for the service to purchase the plots and maintain the enterprise. In operation since 2001, the enterprise has regularized over 20,000 parcels in more than 30 settlements, primarily in the cities of Sao Paolo and Curitiba in Brazil. The approach suggests that it could be widely replicable and add to the set of options for regularizing informal settlements, especially when purchase of private land is required. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Private conservation lands are essential for protecting biodiversity, but few national‐level studies have assessed their coverage and the legal frameworks that support them. Here, we review the legal mechanisms enabling conservation on private lands in Brazil and evaluate these lands' potential to reinforce the national protected area system. We found that conserving native vegetation on private lands is the most important mechanism to protect biodiversity in five out of the six Brazilian biomes. Because Brazil has a law that mandates landowners to set aside conservation areas, remnants of native vegetation were protected rather than converted to other land uses in areas of old economic frontiers. These remnants can be the cornerstones of effective regional conservation systems. Still, upgrading these remnants to privately protected areas and integrating these privately protected areas into the national protected area system remains a challenge. We suggest that the Brazilian experience provides important lessons on how other countries can design innovative policies to recognize and expand private land conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to its low share of energy-related emissions, energy systems models have overlooked the implications of technological transition in the agricultural sector and its interaction in the wider energy system. This paper explores the role of agriculture intensification by using a novel agricultural-based energy systems model. The aim is to explore the future role of Brazil's agriculture and its dynamics with other energy sectors under two carbon constraint scenarios. The main focus has been to study resource competition between sugarcane and natural gas at a country level. Results show that in order to meet the future food and bioenergy demand, the agricultural sector would start intensifying by 2030, improving productivity at the expense of higher energy demand, however, land-related emissions would be minimised due to freed-up pasture land and reduction in deforestation rates. Additionally, the development of balanced bioenergy and natural gas markets may help limit the sugarcane expansion rates, preserving up to 12.6 million hectares of forest land, with significant emissions benefits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deforestation and land use change are among the most pressing anthropogenic environmental impacts. In Brazil, a resurgence of malaria in recent decades paralleled rapid deforestation and settlement in the Amazon basin, yet evidence of a deforestation-driven increase in malaria remains equivocal. We hypothesize an underlying cause of this ambiguity is that deforestation and malaria influence each other in bidirectional causal relationships--deforestation increases malaria through ecological mechanisms and malaria reduces deforestation through socioeconomic mechanisms--and that the strength of these relationships depends on the stage of land use transformation. We test these hypotheses with a large geospatial dataset encompassing 795 municipalities across 13 y (2003 to 2015) and show deforestation has a strong positive effect on malaria incidence. Our results suggest a 10% increase in deforestation leads to a 3.3% increase in malaria incidence (~9,980 additional cases associated with 1,567 additional km² lost in 2008, the study midpoint, Amazon-wide). The effect is larger in the interior and absent in outer Amazonian states where little forest remains. However, this strong effect is only detectable after controlling for a feedback of malaria burden on forest loss, whereby increased malaria burden significantly reduces forest clearing, possibly mediated by human behavior or economic development. We estimate a 1% increase in malaria incidence results in a 1.4% decrease in forest area cleared (~219 fewer km² cleared associated with 3,024 additional cases in 2008). This bidirectional socioecological feedback between deforestation and malaria, which attenuates as land use intensifies, illustrates the intimate ties between environmental change and human health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to its low global share of direct energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions (1–2%), the implications of technological transitions in the agricultural and forestry sector on the energy system have been overlooked. This paper introduces the Agriculture and Land Use Sector module part of the ModUlar energy System Environment (MUSE), a novel energy system simulation model. The study presents a generalisable method that enables energy modellers to characterise agricultural technologies within an energy system modelling framework. Different mechanisation processes were characterised to simulate intensification/extensification transitions in the sector and its wider implications in the energy and land use system aiming at providing reliable non-energy outputs similarly to those found in dedicated land use models. Additionally, a forest growth model has been integrated to explore the role of reforestation alongside decarbonisation measures in the energy system in achieving carbon mitigation pathways. To illustrate the model's capabilities, Brazil is used as case study. Outputs suggest that by 2030 under a 2 °C mitigation scenario, most of Brazil agricultural production would move from 'transitional' to 'modern' practices, improving productivity and reducing deforestation rates, at the expense of higher energy and fertiliser demand. By mid-century Brazil has the potential to liberate around 24.4 Mha of agricultural land, where large-scale reforestation could have the capacity to sequester around 5.6 GtCO 2 , alleviating mitigation efforts in the energy system, especially reducing carbon capture and storage technology investments in the industry and power sector. • A novel energy-oriented agriculture and land use systems model has been developed. • Mechanisation levels are characterised using cluster analysis and linear optimisation. • Role of reforestation alongside measures in the energy sector in Brazil are studied. • By 2050, modern mechanisation could represent 54–63% of agricultural production. • Brazil has the potential to sequester around 5.6 GtCO 2 through reforestation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mangroves play an essential ecological role in the maintenance of the coastal zone and are extremely important for the socioeconomics of coastal communities. However, mangrove ecosystems are impacted by a range of anthropogenic pressures, and the loss of this habitat can be attributed primarily to the human occupation of the coastal zone. In the present study, we analyzed the spatial patterns of land use in the mangrove of the Brazilian Amazon coast, and evaluated the anthropogenic drivers of this impact, using a remote sensing approach. We mapped the road network using RapidEye images, and human settlements using global data. The results of these analyses indicate that the Brazilian Amazon coast has a low population density and low rates of anthropogenic impact in most of the coastal microregions investigated, factors that contribute to the maintenance and conservation of the region’s mangrove. The study also revealed that the paved road network is one of the principal drivers of land use in the mangrove, whereas other factors, such as population density, urban centers, and the number of settlements are much less important. While the region has 2024 km of paved highways, unpaved roads (17,496 km) facilitate access to the mangrove, with approximately 90% of anthropogenic impact being recorded within a 3 km radius of these roads. While the network of paved highways is relatively reduced in extension, preventive measures are urgently required to impede any major shift in the current scenario, caused by the expansion of major development programs. The results of the study indicate that biophysical, economic, and political factors may also contribute to the reduction, stability, and development of one of the world’s largest areas of mangrove forest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Graphical abstract Highlights • Specialisation at national level hampers mitigation-adaptation integration. • Local actors prioritize climate adaptation but lack of influence hinders action. • Decentralisation affects cross-level power differentials in land and climate domains. • Dominant national level communities exclude localities from policy decisions. Abstract This article proposes an innovative theoretical framework that combines institutional and policy network approaches to study multi-level governance. The framework is used to derive a number of propositions on how cross-level power imbalances shape communication and collaboration across multiple levels of governance. The framework is then applied to examine the nature of cross-level interactions in climate change mitigation and adaptation policy processes in the land use sectors of Brazil and Indonesia. The paper identifies major barriers to cross-level communication and collaboration between national and sub-national levels. These are due to power imbalances across governance levels that reflect broader institutional differences between federal and decentralized systems of government. In addition, powerful communities operating predominantly at the national level hamper cross-level interactions. The analysis also reveals that engagement of national level actors is more extensive in the mitigation and that of local actors in the adaptation policy domain, and specialisation in one of the climate change responses at the national level hampers effective climate policy integration in the land use sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forest fires cause many environmental impacts, including air pollution. Brazil is a very fire-prone region where few studies have investigated the impact of wildfires on air quality and health. We proposed to test two hypotheses in this study: i) the wildfires in Brazil have increased the levels of air pollution and posed a health hazard in 2003–2018, and ii) the magnitude of this phenomenon depends on the type of land use and land cover (e.g., forest area, agricultural area, etc.). Satellite and ensemble models derived data were used as input in our analyses. Wildfire events were retrieved from Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), provided by NASA; air pollution data from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS); meteorological variables from the ERA-Interim model; and land use/cover data were derived from pixel-based classification of Landsat satellite images by MapBiomas. We used a framework that infers the "wildfire penalty" by accounting for differences in linear pollutant annual trends (β) between two models to test these hypotheses. The first model was adjusted for Wildfire-related Land Use activities (WLU), considered as an adjusted model. In the second model, defined as an unadjusted model, we removed the wildfire variable (WLU). Both models were controlled by meteorological variables. We used a generalized additive approach to fit these two models. To estimate mortality associated with wildfire penalties, we applied health impact function. Our findings suggest that wildfire events between 2003 and 2018 have increased the levels of air pollution and posed a significant health hazard in Brazil, supporting our first hypothesis. For example, in the Pampa biome, we estimated an annual wildfire penalty of 0.005 μg/m3 (95%CI: 0.001; 0.009) on PM 2.5. Our results also confirm the second hypothesis. We observed that the greatest impact of wildfires on PM 2.5 concentrations occurred in soybean areas in the Amazon biome. During the 16 years of the study period, wildfires originating from soybean areas in the Amazon biome were associated with a total penalty of 0.64 μg/m3 (95%CI: 0.32; 0.96) on PM 2.5 , causing an estimated 3872 (95%CI: 2560; 5168) excess deaths. Sugarcane crops were also a driver of deforestation-related wildfires in Brazil, mainly in Cerrado and Atlantic Forest biomes. Our findings suggest that between 2003 and 2018, fires originating from sugarcane crops were associated with a total penalty of 0.134 μg/m3 (95%CI: 0.037; 0.232) on PM 2.5 in Atlantic Forest biome, resulting in an estimated 7600 (95%CI: 4400; 10,800) excess deaths during the study period, and 0.096 μg/m3 (95%CI: 0.048; 0.144) on PM 2.5 in Cerrado biome, resulting in an estimated 1632 (95%CI: 1152; 2112) excess deaths during the study period. Considering that the wildfire penalties observed during our study period may continue to be a challenge in the future, this study should be of interest to policymakers to prepare future strategies related to forest protection, land use management, agricultural activities, environmental health, climate change, and sources of air pollution. • Effects of wildfires on air pollution and health in Brazil varies across land use. • Greatest effect of wildfires on PM 2.5 occurred in soybean areas in the Amazon. • Soybean in the Amazon was linked with a penalty of 0.72 μg/m3 on PM 2.5. • Wildfires from soybean areas caused 3872 excess deaths. • Sugarcane crops area driver of deforestation-related wildfires in Brazil. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since 2000, soybean production has gained increasing importance in Brazil, particularly in Southern Amazonia and the state of Mato Grosso, the largest producer in the country. This expansion has taken place through cropland extensification into natural ecosystems in the Amazon (tropical forest) and Cerrado (savanna) biomes with land transformation and occupation activity well documented by remote sensing. Guidelines from the UNEP/SETAC Life Cycle Initiative now allow for impact assessment of land transformation and occupation within a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) to estimate potential impacts to biodiversity and ecosystem services. In this study, we apply these guidelines to soybean produced in 2010 in order to complement more traditional soybean LCAs with mid- and end-point impact assessment on biodiversity, erosion potential, water purification, groundwater recharge, biotic production and climate regulation potential in each of the Amazon and Cerrado biomes. In addition to providing regionalized characterization factors of land transformation and occupation in both Mato Grosso biomes, we estimate that one tonne of soybean produced in 2010 in the Amazon had greater impacts than when produced in the Cerrado. For the Amazon, total land transformation and occupation damage was estimated at $ 532 ton −1 and $ 260 ton −1 respectively, with estimates of $ 231 ton −1 and $ 153 ton −1 for the Cerrado. The largest contributors to these damage estimates came from the change in mechanical filtration properties of the soil followed by the land's climate regulation and biotic production potentials. The impact allocation to pasture as a transitional landscape in the establishment of cropland onto natural ecosystems diminished the soybean contribution through allocation of pasture to the beef production system, further adding to the land sparing argument for future cropland expansion in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Amazon Rainforest plays major roles in global carbon and nitrogen cycling. Despite this region’s immense importance, deforestation and pasture creation are still occurring at alarming rates. In this study, we investigated the effects of land-use change on aerobic ammonia-oxidizers in primary rainforest, young and old pasture, and secondary forest in Rondônia, Brazil. Forest-to-pasture conversion decreased soil nitrate, phosphorus, and exchangeable acidity contents that recovered to pre-disturbance levels as pastures aged or were abandoned and formed secondary forest. The ammonia-oxidizing community, numerically dominated by thaumarchaea, shifted due to land-use change, both in terms of gene abundance and community structure. However, thaumarchaeal ammonia monooxygenase gene abundances did not correlate with any measured soil physicochemial parameters. Phylogenetic analyses showed that community structural changes in ammonia-oxidizing thaumarchaea are driven by a shift away from primary rainforest, old pasture, and secondary forest clusters to separate clusters for young pasture. Additionally, the nearly complete disappearance in young pasture, old pasture, and secondary forest sites of a thaumarchaeal genus, the Nitrosotalea , indicates that land-use change can have long lasting effects on large portions of the thaumarchaeal community. The results of this study can be used as a conceptual foundation for determining how ammonia-oxidizers become altered by land-use change in South American tropical forests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is the main technique for evaluate the environmental impacts of product life cycles. A major challenge in the field of LCA is spatial and temporal differentiation in Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) methods, especially impacts resulting from land occupation and land transformation. Land use characterization modeling has advanced considerably over the last two decades and many approaches have recently included crucial aspects such as geographic differentiation. Nevertheless, characterization models have so far not been systematically reviewed and evaluated to determine their applicability to South America. Given that Brazil is the largest country in South America, this paper analyzes the main international characterization models currently available in the literature, with a view to recommending regionalized models applicable on a global scale for land use life cycle impact assessments, and discusses their feasibility for regionalized assessment in Brazil. The analytical methodology involves classification based on the following criteria: midpoint/endpoint approach, scope of application, area of data collection, biogeographical differentiation, definition of recovery time and reference situation; followed by an evaluation of thirteen scientific robustness and environmental relevance subcriteria. The results of the scope of application are distributed among 25% of the models developed for the European context, and 50% have a global scope. There is no consensus in the literature about the definition of parameters such biogeographical differentiation and reference situation, and our review indicates that 35% of the models use ecoregion division while 40% use the concept of potential natural vegetation. Four characterization models show high scores in terms of scientific robustness and environmental relevance. These models are recommended for application in land use life cycle impact assessments, and also to serve as references for the development or adaptation of regional methodological procedures for Brazil. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is commonly recognized that large uncertainties exist in modelled biofuel-induced indirect land-use change, but until now, spatially explicit quantification of such uncertainties by means of error propagation modelling has never been performed. In this study, we demonstrate a general methodology to stochastically calculate direct and indirect land-use change ( dLUC and iLUC) caused by an increasing demand for biofuels, with an integrated economic - land-use change model. We use the global Computable General Equilibrium model MAGNET, connected to the spatially explicit land-use change model PLUC. We quantify important uncertainties in the modelling chain. Next, dLUC and iLUC projections for Brazil up to 2030 at different spatial scales and the uncertainty herein are assessed. Our results show that cell-based (5 × 5 km2) probabilities of dLUC range from 0 to 0.77, and of iLUC from 0 to 0.43, indicating that it is difficult to project exactly where dLUC and iLUC will occur, with more difficulties for iLUC than for dLUC. At country level, dLUC area can be projected with high certainty, having a coefficient of variation (cv) of only 0.02, while iLUC area is still uncertain, having a cv of 0.72. The latter means that, considering the 95% confidence interval, the iLUC area in Brazil might be 2.4 times as high or as low as the projected mean. Because this confidence interval is so wide that it is likely to straddle any legislation threshold, our opinion is that threshold evaluation for iLUC indicators should not be implemented in legislation. For future studies, we emphasize the need for provision of quantitative uncertainty estimates together with the calculated LUC indicators, to allow users to evaluate the reliability of these indicators and the effects of their uncertainty on the impacts of land-use change, such as greenhouse gas emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Brazil faces an enormous challenge to implement its revised Forest Code. Despite big losses for the environment, the law introduces new mechanisms to facilitate compliance and foster payment for ecosystem services (PES). The most promising of these is a market for trading forest certificates (CRAs) that allows landowners to offset their restoration obligations by paying for maintaining native vegetation elsewhere. We analyzed the economic potential for the emerging CRA market in Brazil and its implications for PES programs. Results indicate a potential market for trading 4.2 Mha of CRAs with a gross value of US$ 9.2±2.4 billion, with main regional markets forming in the states of Mato Grosso and São Paulo. This would be the largest market for trading forests in the world. Overall, the potential supply of CRAs in Brazilian states exceeds demand, creating an opportunity for additional PES programs to use the CRA market. This expanded market could provide not only monetary incentives to conserve native vegetation, but also environmental co-benefits by fostering PES programs focused on biodiversity, water conservation, and climate regulation. Effective implementation of the Forest Code will be vital to the success of this market and this hurdle brings uncertainty into the market. Long-term commitment, both within Brazil and abroad, will be essential to overcome the many challenges ahead. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increasing demand for biofuel has intensified land-use change (LUC) for sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum) expansion in Brazil. Assessments of soil quality (SQ) response to this LUC are essential for quantifying and monitoring sustainability of sugarcane production over time. Since there is not a universal methodology for assessing SQ, we conducted a field-study at three sites within the largest sugarcane-producing region of Brazil to develop a SQ index (SQI). The most common LUC scenario (i.e., native vegetation to pasture to sugarcane) was evaluated using six SQI strategies with varying complexities. Thirty eight soil indicators were included in the total dataset. Two minimum datasets were selected: one using principal component analysis (7 indicators) and the other based on expert opinion (5 indicators). Non-linear scoring curves were used to interpret the indicator values. Weighted and non-weighted additive methods were used to combine individual indicator scores into an overall SQI. Long-term conversion from native vegetation to extensive pasture significantly decreased overall SQ. In contrast, conversion from pasture to sugarcane had no significant impact on overall SQ at the regional scale, but site-specific responses were found. In general, sugarcane production improved chemical attributes (i.e., higher macronutrient levels and lower soil acidity); however it has negative effects on physical and biological attributes (i.e., higher soil compaction and structural degradation as well as lower soil organic carbon (SOC), abundance and diversity of macrofauna and microbial activity). Overall, we found that simple, user-friendly strategies were as effective as more complex ones for identifying SQ changes. Therefore, as a protocol for SQ assessments in Brazilian sugarcane areas, we recommend using a small number of indicators (e.g., pH, P, K, Visual Evaluation of Soil Structure -VESS scores and SOC concentration) and proportional weighting to reflect chemical, physical and biological processes within the soil. Our SQ evaluations also suggest that current approaches for expanding Brazilian sugarcane production by converting degraded pasture land to cropland can be a sustainable strategy for meeting increasing biofuel demand. However, management practices that alleviate negative impacts on soil physical and biological indicators must be prioritized within sugarcane producing areas to prevent unintentional SQ degradation over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Brazil has dramatically increased its agricultural area under cultivation, in the process becoming a major food exporter at the cost of natural forests. A new challenge is to meet the food demands of an expanding world population in the face of pessimistic climate change scenarios and the increasing scarcity of land. Can Brazil help meet rising world food demand while conserving its tropical rainforests? To address this question we simulate outcomes using a large dynamic multiregional computable general equilibrium model of Brazil to model land use over 20 years in 90 zones and 14 agricultural sectors. The model features a land-use change module based on a transition matrix obtained from satellite imagery. We analyze two scenarios of deforestation reduction, both linked to actual policy proposals. Model results indicate several mechanisms that allow food output to increase without expanding land supply. In particular, we stress the role of Brazil's vast, low-yield pasture area as a source of future cropland. Thus, we find that controlling deforestation leads to rather small decreases in food output--which could be neutralized by tiny exogenous productivity improvements. We conclude that the decrease in deforestation will not significantly compromise Brazilian agricultural supply capacity in the foreseeable future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soybean farming has brought economic development to parts of South America, as well as environmental hopes and concerns. A substantial hope resides in the decoupling of Brazil's agricultural sector from deforestation in the Amazon region, in which case expansive agriculture need not imply forest degradation. However, concerns have also been voiced about the potential indirect effects of agriculture. This article addresses these indirect effects for the case of the Brazilian Amazon since 2002. Our work finds that as much as thirty-two percent of deforestation, or the loss of more than 30,000 km 2 of Amazon forest, is attributable, indirectly, to Brazil's soybean sector. However, we also observe that the magnitude of the indirect impact of the agriculture sector on forest loss in the Amazon has declined markedly since 2006. We also find a shift in the underlying causes of indirect land use change in the Amazon, and suggest that land appreciation in agricultural regions has supplanted farm expansions as a source of indirect land use change. Our results are broadly congruent with recent work recognizing the success of policy changes in mitigating the impact of soybean expansion on forest loss in the Amazon. However, they also caution that the soybean sector may continue to incentivize land clearings through its impact on regional land markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forest ecosystems are a sink of atmospheric mercury, trapping the metal in the canopy, and storing it in the forest floor after litter fall. Fire liberates a portion of this mercury; however, little is known about the long-term release of mercury post deforestation. We conducted two large-scale experiments to study this phenomenon. In upstate New York, gaseous mercury emissions from soil were monitored continually using a Teflon dynamic surface flux chamber for two-weeks before and after cutting of the canopy on the edge of a deciduous forest. In Brazil, gaseous mercury emissions from soil were monitored in an intact Ombrophilous Open forest and an adjacent field site both before and after the field site was cleared by burning. In the intact forest, gaseous mercury emissions from soil averaged −0.73 ± 1.84 ng m −2 h −1 (24-h monitoring) at the New York site, and 0.33 ± 0.09 ng m −2 h −1 (daytime-only) at the Brazil site. After deforestation, gaseous mercury emissions from soil averaged 9.13 ± 2.08 ng m −2 h −1 in New York and 21.2 ± 0.35 ng m −2 h −1 at the Brazil site prior to burning. Gaseous mercury emissions averaged 74.9 ± 0.73 ng m −2 h −1 after burning of the cut forest in Brazil. Extrapolating our data, measured over several weeks to months, to a full year period, deforested soil is estimated to release an additional 2.30 g ha −1 yr −1 of gaseous mercury to the atmosphere in the Brazilian experiment and 0.41 g ha −1 yr −1 in the New York experiment. In Brazil, this represents an additional 50% of the mercury load released during the fire itself. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Construction of the Itaparica dam and reservoir induced changes in the agricultural production systems of the Itaparica micro-region, at the lower-middle São Francisco river basin. Extensive traditional systems were replaced by e.g. irrigated fruit production. However, over twenty years after the dam construction, many farmers are still facing income insecurity. A survey, consisting of expert interviews and structured on-farm interviews, has been conducted to analyze current production systems. A Linear Programming farm optimization model was applied to determine optimal land allocation considering changing production conditions. Income depended strongly on low wages for day laborers, free irrigation water, and stable prices of the main crop, coconut. Diversification of production and improved market access can help to improve farmers' income situation. Moderate water pricing can raise the awareness of water scarcity and lead to implementation of water saving production methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stream discharge-concentration relationships are indicators of terrestrial ecosystem function. Throughout the Amazon and Cerrado regions of Brazil rapid changes in land use and land cover may be altering these hydrochemical relationships. The current analysis focuses on factors controlling the discharge-calcium (Ca) concentration relationship since previous research in these regions has demonstrated both positive and negative slopes in linear logdischarge-logCa concentration regressions. The objective of the current study was to evaluate factors controlling stream discharge-Ca concentration relationships including year, season, stream order, vegetation cover, land use, and soil classification. It was hypothesized that land use and soil class are the most critical attributes controlling discharge-Ca concentration relationships. A multilevel, linear regression approach was utilized with data from 28 streams throughout Brazil. These streams come from three distinct regions and varied broadly in watershed size (<1 to >10 ha) and discharge (10-10 m s). Linear regressions of logCa versus logdischarge in 13 streams have a preponderance of negative slopes with only two streams having significant positive slopes. An ANOVA decomposition suggests the effect of discharge on Ca concentration is large but variable. Vegetation cover, which incorporates aspects of land use, explains the largest proportion of the variance in the effect of discharge on Ca followed by season and year. In contrast, stream order, land use, and soil class explain most of the variation in stream Ca concentration. In the current data set, soil class, which is related to lithology, has an important effect on Ca concentration but land use, likely through its effect on runoff concentration and hydrology, has a greater effect on discharge-concentration relationships. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global energy demand will increase through the twenty-first century. Competition for energy resources has already revealed geopolitical fault lines, and the dependence of industrial economies on fossil fuel promises to keep nations on edge. A widespread consensus has emerged that societies must transition to a new energy basis, given that fossil fuel is nonrenewable and its combustion leads to global warming. Although alternatives like nuclear energy and hydropower provide important electrical supplies locally, the search goes on, and recently much attention has focused on biofuel. Although biofuel represents a renewable and 'green' energy, there is also a downside. This article considers one potential problem, namely, the impact of growing international biofuel demand on Amazonia. The article focuses on Brazil, given the explosive growth of Brazilian agriculture, and notable effects on forests within its national borders. The article seeks to answer this question: How will global demand for Brazil's land-based commodities, including biofuel, impact its tropical forest in the Amazon basin? In attempting to answer this question, the article describes recent agricultural expansion in Brazil and its emergent landscape of renewable energy. Using an adaptation of rent theory, it frames a concept of landscape cascade and shows how Brazil's expanding landscape of renewable energy is impacting forest areas at a great distance. The article then considers recent projections of demand for Amazonian land out to 2020, given growth of Brazilian biofuel production and cattle herds. The projections indicate that more Amazonian land will be demanded than has been made available by Brazilian environmental policy. With this result in mind, the article discusses the discursive dismemberment of Amazonia and how this articulates with efforts by Brazilian politicians to increase the region's land supply. The article points out that agricultural intensification holds the key to meeting global demand without degrading the Amazonian forest, a landscape unique in the world for its ecological and cultural riches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: There is a move towards large-scale planting of perennial bioenergy crops in many countries to help reduce Green House Gas emissions, whilst still meeting energy demand. However, the implications of such wholesale land use change have yet to be fully understood which raises some concerns over the strategy. This paper identifies, through literature review, that significant social, economic and environmental impacts might be expected from land use change in two different parts of the world, São Paulo, Brazil, where sugarcane is the predominant perennial biomass crop, and England where miscanthus and short rotation coppice are likely to predominate. In order to examine the extent to which these impacts can be addressed in decision-making, the paper develops a framework for testing the effectiveness of environmental assessment practice in these two regions, and applies it to both. The conclusion is that, whilst tools which can address sustainability impacts in decision-making exist, the legal framework in England precludes their application for the majority of land use change, and in Brazil there is incomplete consideration of social and economic impacts at the strategic level. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Brazil is experiencing a surge in planting of sugar cane crops driven by internal markets and external policy drivers for biofuels. The current expectation is for the expansion of these crops to continue. This creates concern over the extent to which the full implications of large scale land use change are currently being considered by decision-makers. Using the State of São Paulo as a case study (as it accounts for the majority of sugar cane grown in Brazil), a comparison was made of the impacts identified in Environmental Impact Statements (EISs) and Preliminary Environmental Reports (PERs), which have to be submitted for approval of most new sugar cane activities, with significant impacts known to be associated with sugar cane activities derived from literature review. The results from a review of 32 EISs and PERs (30% of the population) indicated that whilst some impacts were well covered by the sample (water and soil pollution, and air emissions) energy balance and Green House Gas emissions and food security had very limited consideration, and water resources, residues, labour conditions and social responsibility were only partially covered. Environmental Impact Assessment is constrained by its environmental advocacy role and its application to the project level only. This study highlights its limitations in the context of assessment of land use change which demands more strategic consideration. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

We examine how access regimes, defined by a set of interrelated institutions and organizations, facilitated the flow of production resources and benefits that resulted in patterns of land change in the Brazilian Cerrado. We analyzed remotely sensed data (Landsat MSS, TM, +ETM) for three time periods (1972/1973-1986, 1986-1992, 1992-2002) with qualitative and archival data for eastern Mato Grosso state. Overall we found that land privately colonized was cleared more rapidly and extensively than lands under no colonization scheme. We also identified significant spatial variability in Cerrado conversion within and outside colonization areas and variability of annual rates of Cerrado conversion during each period. We explain that farmers in the Cerrado engaged in land-leasing and production contracts and worked through cooperatives and firms to marshal resources, including credit, technology, and inputs, which, in turn, influenced land-use decisions and regional patterns of land-cover change. We conclude that a mesoscale analytical framework that examines how land managers access natural and productive resources provides useful insights to explain the processes that cause patterns of high-input agricultural expansion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the forces that drove policy in the past can inform expectations of the effectiveness of policy implementation today. Forest policies of countries with forested frontiers transition through stages of forest management, reflecting the orientation of governments toward economic development. The article follows Brazilian national forest policy from the early 20th century from colonization to protectionism, during which extrasectoral policies largely served to marginalize forest policy. More recently, profound changes in Brazil's governance structures, civil society's progressively important role in influencing policy, and recognition of the biophysical importance of forests have fostered an emerging vision of the Amazon as a region whose primary vocation is sustainable forest management. The sustainable management phase of forest policy development and the approval of Brazil's first Public Forest Management Law, given the current socioeconomic, political, and environmental context, present an unprecedented opportunity for increasing the relevance of forest policy in shaping land use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The paper discusses the availability of biomass in Brazil to supply charcoal to the steel industry on the bases of an initial global assessment of land potentially available for plantations and of Brazilian data that allows refining the assessment and specifying the issue of practical availability. Technical potentials are first assessed through a series of simple rules against direct competition with agriculture, forests and protected areas, and of quantitative criteria, whether geo-climatic (rainfall), demographic (population density) or legal (reserves). Institutional, social and economic factors are then identified and discussed so as to account for the practical availability of Brazilian biomass through six criteria. The ranking of nine Brazilian States according to these criteria brings out the necessary trade-offs in the selection of land for plantations that would efficiently supply charcoal to the steel industry. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Within the contexts of globalization and the Atlantic Forest ecoregion, I present a multiscale analysis of anthropogenic landscape dynamics in the Florianópolis city-region, Santa Catarina, southern Brazil. Drawing on field research conducted between 2000 and 2004 and a review of the literature, I examined Brazilian demographic and agricultural census data for the period of 1970 to 1995-1996. I hypothesized that economic restructuring, new institutional arrangements, and the valuation of environmental amenities and ecosystem services have contributed to forest recovery trends and thus a forest transition in the city-region. My results indicate that along with rapid urbanization, in-migration, socioeconomic polarization, and segregation, the city-region has experienced the contraction of private agricultural land area, expansion of protected areas, recovery of forests, and conversion of coastal plain ecosystems to built environments. Future analyses of forest transition dynamics should consider the spatial configurations of socioeconomic inequality in city-regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Air pollution is a major global public health problem. The situation is most severe in low- and middle-income countries, where pollution control measures and monitoring systems are largely lacking. Data to quantify the exposure to air pollution in low-income settings are scarce. In this study, land use regression models (LUR) were developed to predict the outdoor nitrogen dioxide (NO 2) concentration in the study area of the Western Region Birth Cohort in São Paulo. NO 2 measurements were performed for one week in winter and summer at eighty locations. Additionally, weekly measurements at one regional background location were performed over a full one-year period to create an annual prediction. Three LUR models were developed (annual, summer, winter) by using a supervised stepwise linear regression method. The winter, summer and annual models explained 52 %, 75 % and 66 % of the variance (R2) respectively. Cross-holdout validation tests suggest robust models. NO 2 levels ranged from 43.2 μg/m3 to 93.4 μg/m3 in the winter and between 28.1 μg/m3 and 72.8 μg/m3 in summer. Based on our annual prediction, about 67 % of the population living in the study area is exposed to NO 2 values over the WHO suggested annual guideline of 40 μg/m3 annual average. In this study we were able to develop robust models to predict NO 2 residential exposure. We could show that average measures, and therefore the predictions of NO 2, in such a complex urban area are substantially high and that a major variability within the area and especially within the season is present. These findings also suggest that in general a high proportion of the population is exposed to high NO 2 levels. [Display omitted] • Measured NO 2 in São Paulo largely exceed the concentrations recommended by WHO. • Especially in winter the NO 2 measurements were high (43.2 μg/m3 to 93.4 μg/m3). • NO 2 LUR models explains 52 %, 75 % and 66 % (winter-summer-annual) of variance (R2). • 67 % of the residential population is exposed to annual NO 2 levels over WHO guidelines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Demographic interest in population and environment has grown in recent decades. One of the most prominent research areas in this tradition addresses the impact of population on land use and land cover change. Building on this tradition, we examine the effects of household demographic composition on land use and land cover on small farms in two study areas in the Brazilian Amazon. Fixed effects regression models of used area and forested area show few consistent effects of changes in household demography on land use and land cover change. Effects are inconsistent with the household life cycle model that currently dominates the literature on household demographic effects in frontiers. Changes in the number of children and women, particularly young women, have the most significant effects on land use and land cover change. We conclude by arguing that households strategically access cash for investment in agriculture and that specific strategies are determined by economic and institutional context. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Brazil is an active player in the CDM business, even playing host to the first CDM project ever registered. Although the majority of the CDM actions which have been developed to date in Brazil are in the energy sector, an analysis of Brazil''s emissions profile demonstrates that the energy sector does not have a significant share of the country''s emissions. Rather that 25% and 56% of the emissions stem from Agriculture and Land Use activities, respectively. In the light of this profile, this paper re-evaluates Brazil''s national Green House Gas (GHG) matrix, and attempts to highlight the potential of the Land Use and Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) CDM projects. An analysis of potential actions for improved penetration of LULUCF projects is presented, alongside key recommendations for future actions. This paper outlines how and why LULUCF projects can become the cornerstone of sustainable development policy in the North and North East region of Brazil, two of the main less developed regions in the country, totalling 62% of the country''s land mass. A focus is made on three A/R projects recently development in Brazil. Through these case studies, an attempt is made to outline potential guidelines for future actions. This paper demonstrates that A/R projects have a significant potential impact on local and rural development in Brazil today. They have the potential to promote the sustainable use of forestry and soil resources. From the analysis it is clear that satisfying local community needs and commitments is a necessary prerequisite to achieving a situation where the risks associated with the issuing of the CER''s (Certified Emission Reductions) could be better managed and also in line with enhanced support from the national authorities (as part of local development plans). The paper concludes that Brazil has significant potential to develop LULUCF CDM projects and that these projects can promote sustainable development through direct impact on the sustainable livelihoods of local communities over the long-term. It is recommended, in line with Brazil''s current emission profile, that to realise this potential it is necessary to design a new relationship model between the key players involved in the CDM process: government agents, local stakeholders, national academia and private parties. Further it is necessary for the Federal Government to foster the LULUCF projects. Supporting actions include defining clear policies that minimise risk and/or reduce perceived risk and the promotion of multi-stakeholder involvement in the CDM project development process. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper considers the size of a farmer’s property as a key variable influencing land cover and land cover change in rural areas of developing countries. Data from 126 rural familial properties in the region around the city of Santarém, Pará, in the Brazilian Amazon, indicate that property size is important for understanding the trajectories of land cover change. Past research has focused on the distinction between small family farms and large capitalized farms, arguing that family farmers have a higher deforestation intensity, or on estimating the strength of the effect of property size relative to economic or demographic factors. This paper shows that larger familial properties are able both to retain a larger area in forest and to have long enough cycles of use and fallow to allow previously used land to become forested again. Based on these analyses and discussion, we argue that land use and land cover research must consider property size as an organizing principle in order to better comprehend the reciprocal relationship between population and environment in frontier areas of the Brazilian Amazon and other rural landscapes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, scholars of “contentious politics” have paid increasing attention to the dynamics of space and place in the construction of organized resistance. To date, however, the literature has tended to focus on the social construction of space rather than the equally important spatial constitution of the social. In this paper, I analyze how particular understandings of space, or what I call “spatial imaginaries”—cognitive frameworks, both collective and individual, constituted through the lived experiences, perceptions, and conceptions of space itself—influenced the formation of the largest grassroots social movement in Brazilian history, the Movement of Rural Landless Workers (the MST). I analyze the decision to join the MST among small family farmers in southern Brazil and rural plantation workers in northeastern Brazil. People from both groups decided to join the movement, but the farmers from southern Brazil used their spatial imaginaries to embrace the act of occupying land and to create new frontiers for colonization while the rural workers from northeastern Brazil overcame the spatial imaginaries produced through the plantation labor system and joined the movement because they had few other options available to them. Because such imaginaries stay with people long after they engage in the initial acts of mobilization, incorporating this sort of analysis introduces an important dynamic component into the analysis of movement formation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anthropogenic N inputs and riverine export were determined for a meso-scale river basin in one of the most developed and economically important regions of South America. The Piracicaba River basin is located in southeastern Brazil and drains into a tributary of the Paraná River. The basin supports over 3 million people (about 2% of the population of Brazil) with intensive agricultural and industrial activities. During two years from 1995 to 1997, biweekly samples were collected at 10 stations along the Piracicaba River and its tributaries for analyses of dissolved and particulate N. The average annual flux of dissolved inorganic N and total N increased by a factor of 15 and 20 times, respectively, from the headwaters to the lower reaches of the main channel, whereas discharge increased by only 7 times. On a per area basis, the export of TN varied according to land use and was significantly correlated to the net input of anthropogenic N. Among 10 sub-catchments composing the basin, areas mostly covered by pasture and forest had the lowest export, whereas more agricultural and urban areas had higher export. The amount of N exported from each sub-catchment varied widely, but inputs were consistently higher than fluvial outputs. Losses and retention of N occurred throughout the basin but were especially high in the sub-catchment with a main-stem reservoir, suggesting that aquatic processing plays an important role in controlling riverine N export. Total net anthropogenic input to the Piracicaba River basin was 4,500 (± 900) kg N km-2 yr-1 of which about 40% was exported via fluvial outputs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We discriminated different successional forest stages, forest degradation, and land use classes in the Tapajós National Forest (TNF), located in the Central Brazilian Amazon. We used full polarimetric images from ALOS/PALSAR-2 that have not yet been tested for land use and land cover (LULC) classification, neither for forest degradation classification in the TNF. Our specific objectives were: (1) to test the potential of ALOS/PALSAR-2 full polarimetric images to discriminate LULC classes and forest degradation; (2) to determine the optimum subset of attributes to be used in LULC classification and forest degradation studies; and (3) to evaluate the performance of Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) supervised classifications to discriminate LULC classes and forest degradation. PALSAR-2 images from 2015 and 2016 were processed to generate Radar Vegetation Index, Canopy Structure Index, Volume Scattering Index, Biomass Index, and Cloude–Pottier, van Zyl, Freeman–Durden, and Yamaguchi polarimetric decompositions. To determine the optimum subset, we used principal component analysis in order to select the best attributes to discriminate the LULC classes and forest degradation, which were classified by RF. Based on the variable importance score, we selected the four first attributes for 2015, alpha, anisotropy, volumetric scattering, and double-bounce, and for 2016, entropy, anisotropy, surface scattering, and biomass index, subsequently classified by SVM. Individual backscattering indexes and polarimetric decompositions were also considered in both RF and SVM classifiers. Yamaguchi decomposition performed by RF presented the best results, with an overall accuracy (OA) of 76.9% and 83.3%, and Kappa index of 0.70 and 0.80 for 2015 and 2016, respectively. The optimum subset classified by RF showed an OA of 75.4% and 79.9%, and Kappa index of 0.68 and 0.76 for 2015 and 2016, respectively. RF exhibited superior performance in relation to SVM in both years. Polarimetric attributes exhibited an adequate capability to discriminate forest degradation and classes of different ecological succession from the ones with less vegetation cover. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Protected areas (PAs) are a widely used strategy for conserving forests and ecosystem services. When PAs succeed in deterring economic activities that degrade forests, the impacts include more forest yet less economic gain. These economic opportunity costs of conservation lead actors with economic interests to resist new PAs, driving their sites away from profitable market centers and towards areas featuring lower opportunity costs. Further, after PAs are created, economic actors may want PA downgrading, downsizing, and degazettement (collectively PADDD). We examine reductions in PAs' spatial extent – downsizings (partial erasures) and degazettements (complete erasures) − that presumably reduce protection. Using data for the entire Brazilian Amazon from PADDDtracker.org , our empirical analyses explore whether size reductions from 2006 to 2015 resulted from bargaining between development and conservation. We find that the risks of PA size reductions are raised by: lower travel costs (as implied by distances to roads and cities), which affect economic gains and enforcement; greater PA size, which affects enforcement; and more prior internal deforestation, which lowers the impacts of size reductions. These dynamics of protection offer insights on the potentially conflicting factors that lead to PA size reductions, with implications for policymaking to enhance PA effectiveness and permanence. • We assess how factors in agencies' payoffs have affected PA size reductions across the Brazilian Amazon from 2006 to 2015. • We examine events in PADDDtracker.org Data Release Version 1.1 using relevant measures of both land and PA characteristics. • Our results suggest size reductions have development and conservation influences, rather than being only development driven. • Size reductions are more common nearer to cities, where PAs have more environmental gains, reflecting development objectives. • Size reductions are more likely given deforestation in PAs (often farther from cities), reflecting conservation objectives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Brazil's sugarcane sector is a significant source of employment, and operates at the intersection of energy, agriculture and land use. Its future development will be affected by the values, decisions and actions of key actors. Accordingly, we report on the results of qualitative semi-structured interviews with 19 participants with expertise in relation to Brazil's sugarcane sector. We used visual aids, and reflections on past events, to structure and contextualise discussions about the future prospects for the sector as a whole, and for four of its potential products – sugar, ethanol, electricity and biogas. Interviews revealed general expectations of continued growth in the sector, particularly for its energy-related products. However, the possibility of future challenges and tensions is still evident. We suggest three inter-related areas for ongoing reflection. First, there may be value in balancing the desire for minimal intervention, technology neutral styles of policy, with the need for policy that is clear, long-term and impactful. In some cases, more targeted policies for particular actors or emergent technologies, may also be justified. Second, increased clarity on the broader objectives for the sector, including the relative prioritisation of economic, social and environmental objectives, may help industry to make the long term investments consistent with the kind of deep innovation for which there is potential. Third, it is worth reflecting on how the above issues in combination can be leveraged into a global leadership strategy, with consideration of the relative robustness of different leadership strategies within broader emerging global dynamics. • Perceptions of key actors are pertinent to future prospects for energy sectors. • Experts interviewed on perceptions of past and future of Brazil's sugarcane sector. • Long term clarity of policy and targeted measures may support diverse investors. • Clarity on environmental objectives will support long term innovation. • Opportunities for global leadership, in the context of broader global dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Novel ISP approach unites qualitative and quantitative methods to study land use. • Efficiently elicits variation and patterns in landholders' ecological mental maps and future imaginaries. • Uncovers differentiated local narratives linking the environment and agriculture. • Local narratives explain significant variation in forest and pasture land use. • Expands temporal and spatial scales at which landholders' decisions are understood. Rural places are important centers of environmental and social transformation. Landholders are not only affected by socio-environmental changes, but they are influencing futures related to climate change, food security, freshwater, biodiversity, and social and economic development. Much environmental land use work understands individual landholders as rational actors, portrayed through the economic lens of "producer." These approaches generally focus on present capacities and limitations as the principal factors contributing to land use, and the individual farm as the reference unit for decisions. Our research takes steps to expand conceptualizations of rural landholders as active and knowledgeable in envisioning, managing, and shaping environmental futures. We design and test a new approach using ecological mental maps and future imaginaries to understand land use practices through a case study in the cocoa-producing and Atlantic Forest region of Southern Bahia, Brazil. The integrated socio-perceptual (ISP) approach combines qualitative and quantitative methodologies to honor the depth of landholders' experiences and perspectives and to allow broader regional relationships and insights to emerge. We demonstrate that the ISP approach—through 49 surveys—has the capacity to capture variation and identify patterns in ecological mental maps and future imaginaries in a population, approximate the relevant spatial scales underlying these factors, and identify relationships between these and land uses. In this context, the types of narratives landholders hold about the region's future are associated with current forest land use on their properties. We discuss potential applications of the ISP approach for land use study and practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a procedure to study depressional wetlands in southern Brazil and focuses on the mechanisms controlling water dynamics and environmental degradation due to anthropogenic interference. The study is based on an inventory of wetlands, a digital elevation model, the geological and geotechnical characteristics of geological materials, a multitemporal analysis of satellite images, the distribution of land use types, and onsite monitoring of water level and rainfall data. One hundred and twelve depressional wetlands were identified with a total area of 902 ha and a catchment area of 5456.8 ha. These wetlands were grouped into two classes with different hydrological control mechanisms. From the water level monitoring, the wetlands were found to present different hydrological conditions. Before rainy periods, the wetlands were almost dry or had little water; after rainy periods, over half of the wetlands were still dry or had groundwater levels below the surface, and the water levels of the other wetlands increased. The multitemporal analysis showed a reduction in the wetland water surface area from 270 ha in 1991 to 60 ha in 2019, which confirms the monitoring result that the amount of stored water is decreasing because of anthropogenic activities. Anthropogenic activities affect wetland water dynamics because of changes in the landscape and soil characteristics of the catchment area, and drainage of wetland areas by ditches for agricultural water supply; more than 50% of wetlands showed a high degree of change (environmental degradation), with conditions that make restoration or remediation very difficult. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article deals with the meaning and the management of land-based resources by indigenous peoples, which are analyzed through an assessment of the lived spaces of the Guarani–Kaiowa indigenous people in the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso do Sul. The discussion follows an analytical framework that is focused on land, labor and ethnicity. These interconnected politico-economic categories provide the basis for understanding the violence and exploitation perpetrated against indigenous groups, as well as their capacity to reclaim ancestral territories lost to extractivism and agribusiness development. Empirical results indicate that ethnicity is integral to labor and land management processes. In the case of the Guarani–Kaiowa, not only have they become refugees in their own lands due to racist discrimination, but also their labor has been incorporated in the regional economy through interrelated peasantification and proleterianization tendencies. The result is a complex situation that combines major socio-spatial asymmetries with the strategic, exploitative use of land and labor and the growing political contestation by the indigenous groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought-related disasters are among the natural disasters that are able to cause large economic and social losses. In recent years, droughts have affected different regions of Brazil, impacting water, food, and energy security. In this study, we used the Integrated Drought Index (IDI), which combines a meteorological-based drought index and remote sensing-based index, to assess the drought events from 2011 to 2019 over Brazil. During this period, drought events were observed throughout the country, being most severe and widespread between the years 2011 and 2017. In most of the country, the 2014/15 hydrological year stands out due to the higher occurrence of severe and moderate droughts. However, drought intensity and observed impacts were different for each region, which is shown by the different case studies, assessing different types of impacts caused by drought in Brazil. Thus, it is fundamental to evaluate the impacts of droughts in a continental country such as Brazil, where a variety of vegetation, soil, land use, and especially different climate regimes predominate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Cerrado biome is Brazil's breadbasket and a major provider of ecosystem services, though these dual roles are increasingly at odds, in part because there are few mechanisms to protect remaining vegetation from large‐scale agricultural expansion. We assessed Cerrado conversion to soy using over 580,000 property boundaries, covering 77% of the biome that is eligible for commercial land use, and using microwatersheds, to cover 100% of eligible areas. Soy expansion accounted for 22% of conversion during 2003–14. Only 15% of clearing exceeded restrictions on private properties under the Forest Code (FC). However, 51% of soy farms have violated the FC, five times the rate of other farms. As a leading cause of both Cerrado conversion and FC violations, the soy sector has environmental and economic incentives to shift production to already cleared land. We used suitability maps to identify potential pathways for soy expansion across both old and new cropland frontiers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]