Strength in diversity? Past dynamics and future drivers affecting demand for sugar, ethanol, biogas and bioelectricity from Brazil's sugarcane sector.

Brazil's sugarcane sector is a significant source of employment, and operates at the intersection of energy, agriculture and land use. Its future development will be affected by the values, decisions and actions of key actors. Accordingly, we report on the results of qualitative semi-structured interviews with 19 participants with expertise in relation to Brazil's sugarcane sector. We used visual aids, and reflections on past events, to structure and contextualise discussions about the future prospects for the sector as a whole, and for four of its potential products – sugar, ethanol, electricity and biogas. Interviews revealed general expectations of continued growth in the sector, particularly for its energy-related products. However, the possibility of future challenges and tensions is still evident. We suggest three inter-related areas for ongoing reflection. First, there may be value in balancing the desire for minimal intervention, technology neutral styles of policy, with the need for policy that is clear, long-term and impactful. In some cases, more targeted policies for particular actors or emergent technologies, may also be justified. Second, increased clarity on the broader objectives for the sector, including the relative prioritisation of economic, social and environmental objectives, may help industry to make the long term investments consistent with the kind of deep innovation for which there is potential. Third, it is worth reflecting on how the above issues in combination can be leveraged into a global leadership strategy, with consideration of the relative robustness of different leadership strategies within broader emerging global dynamics. • Perceptions of key actors are pertinent to future prospects for energy sectors. • Experts interviewed on perceptions of past and future of Brazil's sugarcane sector. • Long term clarity of policy and targeted measures may support diverse investors. • Clarity on environmental objectives will support long term innovation. • Opportunities for global leadership, in the context of broader global dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]