Search

Various policies on electric vehicles (EVs) have been implemented in Beijing to promote EV diffusion, but previous research has rarely considered the indirect network effects between EVs and EV charging infrastructures (EVCIs), and has not explored the impact of EVCI-related incentives on EV diffusion. This study aims to enrich the literature by incorporating EVCI development and indirect network effects in EV diffusion. A system dynamic model is proposed to systematically analyse the interactions among consumer, EV manufacturer and EVCI operator and simulate EV diffusion and ECVI investment in Beijing. Multiple scenarios are adopted to investigate the joint effects of the policy mix on EV diffusion. The results indicate that the oil-to-electricity subsidy promoted EVs and EVCIs to a greater extent than the license plate control policy. The EVCI maintenance policy outperformed EVCI construction and production subsidies on EV diffusion. Synergistic effects exist when the oil-to-electricity subsidy is mixed with EVCI-related incentives. This study provides implications for policymakers to promote EV diffusion with innovative and efficient policy instruments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Decarbonizing road transport is important for China to achieve carbon neutrality. Road transport decarbonization requires rapid deployment of new energy vehicles, especially electric vehicles, expanding demand for critical battery minerals including lithium, cobalt, and nickel. By constructing a novel bottom-up framework that combines Low Emissions Analysis Platform and Vehicle Critical Mineral Demand model, this study assesses China's road transport decarbonization pathways and critical battery mineral demand under three illustrative scenarios. Results show China's vehicle stock peaking at 528 million in 2045 and remaining saturated through 2060. Except for diesel-fueled trucks, China's internal combustion engine vehicles are completely phased out around 2050–2055. Share of oil-derived fuels in China's road transport energy declines, while share of electricity and hydrogen increases significantly, with electricity and hydrogen together accounting for 57–88% in 2060. China's road transport CO 2 peaks at 977–1,083 Mt in 2028–2032, declining to 62–282 Mt in 2060, with private vehicles, light- and heavy-duty trucks as core mitigation areas. Cumulative demand for lithium, cobalt, and nickel from electric-vehicle batteries is estimated at 16.1–19.6 Mt LCE, 0.4–0.55 Mt and 3.3–4.3 Mt by 2060, respectively, indicating a challenge for China's local mineral supply. Recycling reduces cumulative demand for primary lithium, cobalt, and nickel resources by over 30%, 60% and 60%, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]