China's road transport decarbonization pathways and critical battery mineral demand under carbon neutrality.

Decarbonizing road transport is important for China to achieve carbon neutrality. Road transport decarbonization requires rapid deployment of new energy vehicles, especially electric vehicles, expanding demand for critical battery minerals including lithium, cobalt, and nickel. By constructing a novel bottom-up framework that combines Low Emissions Analysis Platform and Vehicle Critical Mineral Demand model, this study assesses China's road transport decarbonization pathways and critical battery mineral demand under three illustrative scenarios. Results show China's vehicle stock peaking at 528 million in 2045 and remaining saturated through 2060. Except for diesel-fueled trucks, China's internal combustion engine vehicles are completely phased out around 2050–2055. Share of oil-derived fuels in China's road transport energy declines, while share of electricity and hydrogen increases significantly, with electricity and hydrogen together accounting for 57–88% in 2060. China's road transport CO 2 peaks at 977–1,083 Mt in 2028–2032, declining to 62–282 Mt in 2060, with private vehicles, light- and heavy-duty trucks as core mitigation areas. Cumulative demand for lithium, cobalt, and nickel from electric-vehicle batteries is estimated at 16.1–19.6 Mt LCE, 0.4–0.55 Mt and 3.3–4.3 Mt by 2060, respectively, indicating a challenge for China's local mineral supply. Recycling reduces cumulative demand for primary lithium, cobalt, and nickel resources by over 30%, 60% and 60%, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]