Search

Background: Red blood cells are essential for modern medicine but managing their collection and supply to cope with fluctuating demands represents a major challenge. As deterministic models based on predicted population changes have been problematic, there remains a need for more precise and reliable prediction of use. Here, we develop three new time-series methods to predict red cell use 4 to 52 weeks ahead.Study Design and Methods: From daily aggregates of red blood cell (RBC) units issued from 2005 to 2011 from the NHS Blood and Transplant, we generated a new set of non-overlapping weekly data by summing the daily data over 7 days and derived the average blood use per week over 4-week and 52-week periods. We used three new methods for linear prediction of blood use by computing the coefficients using Minimum Mean Squared Error (MMSE) algorithm.Results: We optimized the time-window size, order of the prediction, and order of the polynomial fit for our data set. By exploiting the annual periodicity of the data, we achieved significant improvements in long-term predictions, as well as modest improvements in short-term predictions. The new methods predicted mean RBC use with a standard deviation of the percentage error of 2.5% for 4 weeks ahead and 3.4% for 52 weeks ahead.Conclusion: This paradigm allows short- and long-term prediction of RBC use and could provide reliable and precise prediction up to 52 weeks ahead to improve the efficiency of blood services and sufficiency of blood supply with reduced costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Blood products are essential for modern medicine, but managing their collection and supply in the face of fluctuating demands represents a major challenge. As deterministic models based on predicted changes in population have been problematic, there remains a need for more precise and reliable prediction of demands. Here, we propose a paradigm incorporating four different time-series methods to predict red blood cell (RBC) issues 4 to 24 weeks ahead.Study Design and Methods: We used daily aggregates of RBC units issued from 2005 to 2011 from the National Health Service Blood and Transplant. We generated a new set of nonoverlapping weekly data by summing the daily data over 7 days and derived the average blood issues per week over 4-week periods. We used four methods for linear prediction of blood demand by computing the coefficients with the minimum mean squared error and weighted least squares error algorithms.Results: We optimized the time-window size, order of the prediction, and order of the polynomial fit for our data set. The four time-series methods, essentially using different weightings to data points, gave very similar results and predicted mean RBC issues with a standard deviation of the percentage error of 3.0% for 4 weeks ahead and 4.0% for 24 weeks ahead.Conclusion: This paradigm allows prediction of demand for RBCs and could be developed to provide reliable and precise prediction up to 24 weeks ahead to improve the efficiency of blood services and sufficiency of blood supply with reduced costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Knowledge of blood utilization can assist clinicians in directing patient blood management (PBM) initiatives and can facilitate demand planning by blood services. We describe a national study of red blood cell (RBC) utilization in England and North Wales in 2014.Study Design and Methods: All hospitals that are supplied with blood components by NHS Blood and Transplant (NHSBT) were asked to provide data on the age and sex of all recipients of transfusions of RBCs, and the clinical indication for every unit transfused, for two separate weeks in 2014. Clinical indication categories were derived from those used in previous studies in an English region. Completeness of data collection was checked against NHSBT issue and wastage data.Results: Data on 46,111 RBC units were collected, representing 73% of all RBCs issued by NHSBT during the weeks surveyed. A total of 67% of RBC units were transfused for a medical indication, with 27 and 6% being transfused for surgical and obstetric/gynecologic indications, respectively. For comparison, figures from a study in the North of England in 2009, on which this national study was based, showed that 64% of RBCs were transfused to medical patients. All but 20 units could be ascribed to a broad clinical heading, for example, "gastrointestinal bleeding."Conclusion: Our findings confirm the previous regional finding that the percentage of RBC units that are transfused to surgical patients in England and North Wales is now much lower than for medical patients and suggest that PBM initiatives should now focus on medical patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Information about several papers discussed at a conference organized by the European Blood Alliance and America's Blood Centers held in London, England is presented. The conference highlights the role of blood centers in transfusion recipient care as well as development of technologies and techniques to assure better tracking of blood from the donor to the patient. Several medical personnel were featured like Robert Carden, Michael F. Murphy, and Sunny Dzik.

The article focuses on the development of an electronic transfusion management system in a group of acute hospitals in Oxfordshire, England. This move is carried out as an example of how to approach a major change program and drive improvements in health care. Key steps involve in a change program involve understanding the problem, developing goals and developing tools for its evaluation. It says that a team with the relevant skills to carry out the required work is essential.

Discusses results of a study investigating the transmission of hepatitis C virus (HCV) among blood transfusion recipients in England before anti-HCV testing of blood donations. Patient characteristics; Percent of patients tested who were positive for HCV; Tracing efficiency of blood recipients; Factors affecting recipient infection; Evidence of liver disease among recipients; Mortality; Study limitations.

Information about the topic discussed by Agneta Wikman at the conference organized by the European Blood Alliance and America's Blood Centers in London, England is presented. Wikman discusses the advantages and disadvantages of Swedish blood organizations as well as the impact of information technology to blood services among blood banks and hospitals. She highlights the national regulations and guidelines on quality and standards for blood collection and processing.

Background: An understanding of current and changing patterns of red blood cell (RBC) use will help predict future demands and aid future planning for transfusion services. It can also highlight areas where efforts to optimize RBC use are most likely to be productive., Study Design and Methods: Surveys were conducted in two 14-day periods of all RBC transfusions in a geographic region of England supplied by a single blood center. Data collection was prospective and used preprinted paper forms. Results were compared with two previous studies covering a period of 10 years., Results: The clinical fate of 8025 units of RBCs was recorded consistent with data on more than 99% of units issued and transfused during the survey period. The overall RBC transfusion rate has decreased from 45.5 to 36 units per 100,000 population from 1999 and 2009. Twenty-nine percent were used for surgical indications indicating a further decrease in surgical use compared to previous surveys. This decrease was limited solely to recipients of 50 to 80 years of age. Use for medical and obstetric/gynecologic indications has not changed significantly over 10 years., Conclusion: Further decreases in surgical RBC use may be achievable but the aging population is likely to demand more blood for nonsurgical indications and efforts should be directed to optimizing use in these recipients. Comparative data on transfusion rates between regions or countries may be a useful tool for improving blood use., (© 2012 American Association of Blood Banks.)