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Since its inception in the early nineteenth century, the U.S. commercial paper market has grown to become a key source of short-term funding for major businesses, with issuance averaging over $100 billion per day. In the fall of 2008, the commercial paper market achieved national prominence when increasing market stress caused some to fear that, given its size and importance, the market's failure would sharply worsen the recession. The Department of the Treasury and Federal Reserve enacted programs targeted at providing credit and liquidity to restore investor confidence. The authors review the history of the commercial paper market, describe its structure and key relationships to money market mutual funds, and present a detailed discussion of the crisis in the market, including the resulting Federal Reserve programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Presents a list of working papers from the Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis, Missouri in 2003. "Asymmetric Common Trends: An Application of Monetary Policy in a Markov-Switching VECM," by Neville Francis and Michael T. Owyang; "FOMC Forecasts: Is All the Information in the Central Tendency?," by William T. Gavin; "Does Consumer Sentiment Predict Regional Consumption?," by Thomas A. Garrett.

Lists the working papers from the Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis, Missouri containing preliminary results of staff research from 1991 to 1996. Includes `Discount Rate Policies of Five Federal Reserve Chairman,' by Daniel L. Thornton; `Dependent Children and Aged Parents: Funding Education and Social Security in an Aging Economy,' by Patricia S. Pollard and Rowena A. Pecchenino.

Argues that the discount window, properly administered, can help the government direct temporary credit subsidies through the banking system to firms suffering from a panic in nonbank financial market. Commercial paper crisis of the 1970; Penn Central as an example of a beneficial discount window intervention; Stabilizing effect of the discount window on nonbank financial market.

Opinion. Comments on the paper by Jerome Stein about the Federal Reserve's role in improving the economic condition of the United States. Function of the M2 aggregate as a monetary indicator to guide monetary policy; Federal Reserve's achievement of price stability; Relationship between M2 growth and a particular economic variable; Interpretation of evidence on monetary indicators.

Comments on an article by Laurence Kotlikoff on the bankruptcy of the U.S. Argument on Kotlikoff's definition of bankruptcy in the article; Main components of the paper; Views on the idea of a bankrupt nation.

The U.S. labor market contracted sharply during the Great Recession. The ensuing recovery has been sluggish and by some measures still incomplete. In this paper, we break down aggregate employment during the Recession and the recovery into changes across industries and occupations. There is a clear asymmetric pattern: The contraction is driven by sectors and the recovery by occupations. In particular, the contraction between 2008 and 2010 primarily reflects a steep decline in construction employment, partially mitigated by expansions in the food services, education, and health industries. The recovery first came from a gradual increase in low-skill occupation employment across all sectors but after 2012 from a pronounced increase in high-skill occupation employment across all sectors. This pattern of recovery is a continuation of the underlying trend of polarization across occupations, which commenced in the 1980s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Focuses on the the role of banks in the American financial system in late 19th century. History of the banking system of the United States; Discussion on the real-bills doctrine; Details on the Bank of A. Levy and the Emigrant Savings Bank cases.

This article summarizes some of the papers presented at the System Applied Microeconomics Conference organized and hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis on May 5-6, 2011. This annual conference brings together economists from the Federal Reserve District Banks across the Federal Reserve System and the Federal Reserve Board to present their latest economic research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops a generalization of the formulas proposed by Kuttner (2001) and others for purposes of measuring the effects of a change in the federal funds target on Treasury yields of different maturities. The generalization avoids the need to condition on the date of the target change and allows for deviations of the effective fed funds rate from the target as well as gradual learning by market participants about the target. The paper shows that parameters estimated solely on the basis of the behavior of the fed funds and fed funds futures can account for the broad calendar regularities in the relation between fed funds futures and Treasury yields of different maturities. Although the methods are new, the conclusion is quite similar to that reported by earlier researchers—changes in the fed funds target seem to be associated with quite large changes in Treasury yields, even for maturities of up to 10 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Comments on a paper by Robert Shimer published in this same issue which measures the job-finding, separation, and job-to-job transition rates in the U.S. from 1948 to 2004. Findings of Shimer; Composition effects due to heterogeneous agents and movements in and out of the labor force; Conclusion of Shimer that the received wisdom about job destruction rises dramatically during recessions.

In this paper, the author develops and uses an original dataset collected from the internal discussion of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy committee (the Federal Open Market Committee [FOMC] transcripts) to examine questions about the Committee's behavior. The data show that Chairman Alan Greenspan's proposals, after Committee discussion, were nearly always adopted unmodified in the formal vote. Despite the external appearance of consensus with little disagreement over decisions and an official dissent rate of 7.5 percent, the data reveal that the rate of disagreement in internal Committee discussions was quite high-on the order of 30 percent for discussions of the short-term interest rate. And, under the assumption that FOMC voters assigned a higher priority to their preferences for the short-term interest rate than for the bias in the policy directive, it can be shown that this bias was important for achieving consensus, which supports and extends the results of Thornton and Wheelock (2000). Thus, the novel dataset described in this paper helps to shed some light on the internal workings of the FOMC in the Greenspan years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper the author discusses the possibility that the U.S. economy may become enmeshed in a Japanese-style deflationary outcome within the next several years. To frame the discussion, the author relies on an analysis that emphasizes two possible long-run steady states for the economy: one that is consistent with monetary policy as it has typically been implemented in the United States in recent years and one that is consistent with the low nominal interest rate, deflationary regime observed in Japan during the same period. The data considered seem to be quite consistent with the two steady-state possibilities. The author describes and critiques seven stories that are told in monetary policy circles regarding this analysis and emphasizes two main conclusions: (i) The Federal Open Market Committee's "extended period" language may be increasing the probability of a Japanese-style outcome for the United States and (ii), on balance, the U.S. quantitative easing program offers the best tool to avoid such an outcome. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Comments on a paper by Ellen McGrattan and Ed Prescott published in this same issue which shows that ignoring corporate intangible investments gives a distorted picture of the post-1990 U.S. economy. Characterization of the U.S. economy in the 1990s; Assumptions of perfect labor mobility across sectors; Chart showing private nonfarm business productivity growth from 1948-2000.

This paper studies how local policies-specifically, taxes on income with redistributive goals-affect the migration decisions of individuals and, in turn, how these migration decisions affect local and economy-wide tax and redistribution policies. The author develops a model of optimal taxation for a federal system of governments in the tradition of Mirrlees (1971), where taxes can be fully nonlinear but informational asymmetries prevent the equalization of well being across workers due to informational rents. This article extends the large literature on federalism and tax competition by obtaining optimal tax formulas for the federal and state governments. The literature has mainly focused on inefficiencies that arise due to fiscal externalities when governments have access to restricted instruments (for example, allowing only linear taxes). Contrary to previous results in that literature, the author shows here that state governments will provide redistribution through taxes and that, in a symmetric equilibrium, the overall tax schedule that combines the actions of both the federal and state governments is the same as that of a unitary government. This implies that, under the conditions analyzed in the model, there is no reason to restrict income redistribution objectives to the federal government only, as commonly prescribed in the literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the effectiveness of one of the Federal Reserve's unconventional monetary policy tools, the term auction facility (TAF). At issue is whether the TAF reduced the spread between the London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) rates and equivalent-term Treasury rates by reducing the liquidity premium embedded in LIBOR rates. This paper suggests that rather than reducing the liquidity premium in LIBOR rates, the announcement of the TAF increased the risk premium in financial and other bond rates because market participants interpreted the announcement by the Fed and other central banks as a sign that the financial crisis was worse than previously thought. Evidence is presented that supports this hypothesis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

First-order approximation methods are a standard technique for analyzing the local dynamics of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Although linear methods yield quite accurate solutions for a broad class of DSGE models, some important economic issues (e.g., portfolio choice and welfare) cannot be adequately addressed by first-order methods. This paper provides yet another case when first-order methods may be inadequate for capturing the business cycle properties of a DSGE model. In particular, the authors show that increasing returns to scale (due to production externalities) may induce asymmetric business cycles and nonlinear income effects that are not fully captured by linear approximation methods. For example, hump-shaped output dynamics can emerge even when externalities are below the threshold level required for indeterminacy, and output expansion tends to be smoother and longer, whereas contraction tends to be deeper but shorter-lived, as observed in the U.S. economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper the author discusses the possibility that the U.S. economy may become enmeshed in a Japanese-style deflationary outcome within the next several years. To frame the discussion, the author relies on an analysis that emphasizes two possible long-run steady states for the economy: one that is consistent with monetary policy as it has typically been implemented in the United States in recent years and one that is consistent with the low nominal interest rate, deflationary regime observed in Japan during the same period. The data considered seem to be quite consistent with the two steady-state possibilities. The author describes and critiques seven stories that are told in monetary policy circles regarding this analysis and emphasizes two main conclusions: (i) The Federal Open Market Committee's "extended period" language may be increasing the probability of a Japanese-style outcome for the United States and (ii), on balance, the U.S. quantitative easing program offers the best tool to avoid such an outcome. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the role of community colleges in the U.S. higher education system and their advantages and shortcomings. In particular, it discusses the population of community college students and economic returns to community college education for various demographic groups. It offers new evidence on the returns to an associate's degree. Furthermore, the paper uses data from the National Survey of College Graduates to compare educational objectives, progress, and labor market outcomes of individuals who start their postsecondary education at community colleges with those who start at four-year colleges. Particular attention is paid to the Federal Reserve's Eighth District, the geographic area served by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Congestion at airports imposes large costs on airlines and their passengers. A key reason for congestion is that an airline schedules its flights without regard to the costs imposed on other airlines and their passengers. As a result, during some time intervals, airlines schedule more flights to and from an airport than that airport can accommodate and flights are delayed. This paper explores how a specific market-based proposal by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), which includes the use of auctions to determine the right to arrive or depart in a specific time interval at airports in the New York City area, might be used as part of a strategy to mitigate delays and congestion. By explaining the underlying economic theory and key arguments with minimal technical jargon, the paper allows those with little formal training in economics to understand the fundamental issues associated with the FAA's controversial proposal. Moreover, the basics of the proposed auction process, known as a combinatorial auction, and value capture are also explained. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines some of the more recent mortgage products now available to borrowers. The authors describe how these products differ across important characteristics, such as the down payment requirement, repayment structure, and amortization schedule. The paper also presents a model with the potential to analyze the implications for various mortgage contracts for individual households, as well as to address many current housing market issues. In this paper, the authors use the model to examine the implications of alternative mortgages for homeownership. The authors use the model to show that interest rate-adjustable mortgages and combo loans can help explain the rise-and fall-in homeownership since 1994. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Monetary policy analysts often rely on rules of thumb, such as the Taylor rule, to describe historical monetary policy decisions and to compare current policy with historical norms. Analysis along these lines also permits evaluation of episodes where policy may have deviated from a simple rule and examination of the reasons behind such deviations. One interesting question is whether such rules of thumb should draw on policymakers' forecasts of key variables, such as inflation and unemployment, or on observed outcomes. Importantly, deviations of the policy from the prescriptions of a Taylor rule that relies on outcomes may be the result of systematic responses to information captured in policymakers' own projections. This paper investigates this proposition in the context of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy decisions over the past 20 years, using publicly available FOMC projections from the semiannual monetary policy reports to Congress (Humphrey-Hawkins reports). The results indicate that FOMC decisions can indeed be predominantly explained in terms of the FOMC's own projections rather than observed outcomes. Thus, a forecast-based rule of thumb better characterizes FOMC decisionmaking. This paper also confirms that many of the apparent deviations of the federal funds rate from an outcome-based Taylor-style rule may be considered systematic responses to information contained in FOMC projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many predictions of the economic and social costs of a modern-day pandemic are based on the effects of the influenza pandemic of 1918. Despite killing 675,000 people in the United States and 40 million worldwide, the influenza of 1918 has been nearly forgotten. The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of the influenza pandemic of 1918 in the United States, its economic effects, and its implications for a modern-day pandemic. The paper provides a brief historical background as well as detailed influenza mortality statistics for cities and states, including those in the Eighth Federal Reserve District, that account for differences in race, income, and place of residence. Information is obtained from two sources: (i) newspaper articles published during the pandemic and (ii) a survey of economic research on the subject. (JEL I1, N0, R0) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The author comments on the paper by Glenn Rudebusch et al which surveys literatures on monetary economics and interest rates. He expresses his view on the patterns in Figure 1 which presents the federal funds rate and 1- to 15-year forward rates through the past two recessions. He notes the error in the measurement of expected interest rates. He asserts that slope movements in the yield curve do not indicate risk premia nor does covariance with monetary policy shocks generate real risk premia.

Personal bankruptcy filings in the United States increased, per capita, nearly 350 percent between 1980 and 2005. This paper first addresses the changes in economic and institutional factors that have occurred over the past 100 years, many of which have occurred in the past 30 years, which are likely contributors to the dramatic rise in personal bankruptcy filings seen across the country. These factors include a reduction in personal savings, an increase in consumer debt, the proliferation of revolving credit, changes to bankruptcy law, and a reduced social stigma associated with filing for bankruptcy. Given the availability of bankruptcy data at various levels of aggregation, the remaining sections of the paper contain results from several different empirical analyses of bankruptcy filings using various data sets. Careful attention is paid to personal bankruptcy filings in counties located in Eighth Federal Reserve District states. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews the evolution of the major credit and insurance programs undertaken by the U.S. government in support of urban housing. As the review makes clear, the Federal Housing Administration (FHA), Veterans Administration, Federal National Mortgage Association, and Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation have played major roles in the development of liberal and efficient primary and secondary mortgage markets in the United States. The development of capacity in mortgage lending and securitization in the private sector does suggest, however, that federally subsidizing mortgage market activities can be restrained with little effect on homeownership-- the principal goal of this federal activity. In particular, the orderly reduction in the mortgage investment activities of the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) and the imposition of guarantee fees on mortgage-backed securities insured by the GSEs are first steps in restraining federal activity. More generally, a concentration of FHA and GSE activity on first-time homebuyers would reduce federal risk exposure while preserving the economic rationale for government activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Is the United States bankrupt? Many would scoff at this notion. Others would argue that financial implosion is just around the corner. This paper explores these views from both partial and general equilibrium perspectives. It concludes that countries can go broke, that the United States is going broke, that remaining open to foreign investment can help stave off bankruptcy, but that radical reform of U.S. fiscal institutions is essential to secure the nation's economic future. The paper offers three policies to eliminate the nation's enormous fiscal gap and avert bankruptcy: a retail sales tax, personalized Social Security, and a globally budgeted universal healthcare system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The size of the U.S. federal government, as well as state and local governments, increased dramatically during the 20th century. This paper reviews several theories of government size and growth that are dominant in the public choice and political science literature. The theories are divided into two categories: citizen-over-state theories and state-over-citizen theories. The relationship between the 16th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution and the timing of government growth is also presented. It is likely that portions of each theory can explain government size and growth, but the challenge facing economists is to develop a single unifying theory of government growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper measures the job-finding, separation, and job-to-job transition rates in the United States from 1948 to 2004. The job-finding and job-to-job transition rates are strongly procyclical and the separation rate is nearly acyclical, especially since 1985. The author develops a simple model in which unemployed workers search for jobs and employed workers search for better jobs. The model predicts that an increase in either the job-finding rate or the separation rate raises the job-to-job transition rate, which is qualitatively and quantitatively consistent with the available evidence. In contrast, if the job-finding rate were acyclical and the separation rate countercyclical, as is the conventional wisdom, the model predicts that the job-to-job transition rate would be counterfactually countercyclical. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When taxing real property at the local level in the United States, land and improvements to the land, such as buildings, are generally taxed at the same rate. Two-rate (or split-rate) taxation departs from this practice by taxing land at a higher rate than structures. This paper begins with an elementary discussion of taxation and the economic rationale for two-rate taxation. In theory, moving to a two-rate tax reduces the deadweight losses associated with distortionary taxation and generates additional economic activity. The paper also provides a history of two-rate taxation in the United States and a summary of studies attempting to quantify its economic effects. Discussions of the practical and political challenges of implementing two-rate taxation complete the paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the mid-2000s, household private debt reached a new level 1.2 times larger than personal income- before collapsing during the Great Recession. This paper uses microeconomic data to document the main changes in personal debt and explore the behavior of debt across generations over two periods: before and after the Great Recession. Special emphasis is placed on participation rates by category of debt (the extensive margin), volume borrowed (the intensive margin), and default behavior. Key findings include that between 1999 and 2013 the fraction of individuals with only unsecured (e.g., credit card) debt decreased, as did their balances. In addition, most forms of private debt (mortgages, credit card debt, and auto loans) had significant boom-bust cycles, but the effects across generations have been very asymmetric. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Discusses the use of the monetary aggregate M2+ as a monetary policy proposed by the US Federal Reserve Board. Specification of the demand for M2+; Issues concerning the stability, indicator property and controllability of the monetary aggregate; Demand functions for M2+; Problems associated with the adoption of M2+; Effects on the economic and monetary policy.

Opinion. Comments on the paper by Anderson and Kavajecz on the historical perspective of money aggregates of the Federal Reserve System in the United States. Importance of data on monetary aggregates to academic and policy research on macroeconomics; Focus on why researchers doing empirical monetary economics should care about the details of the measurement of monetary aggregates; More.

Examines from a nonstructural, low frequency point of view, the basic proposition that money growth and inflation are closely related in the long run. Extension of Robert E. Lucas' illustration of the validity of the quantity theory; Support for money's long run neutrality; Statistical basis.

We evaluate, empirically, the effect of changes in trade policy during the 2018-19 trade war on U.S. economic activity. We begin by documenting that sectors and states across the United States are heterogeneous in their exposure to international trade. To do that, we construct a measure of exposure that combines the share of a sector's gross output that is accounted for by trade with the pattern of comparative advantage of each state in that sector. We then exploit cross-state heterogeneity in exposure to international trade and correlate it with measures of economic activity across U.S. states. Our findings suggest that states that were very exposed to trade at the onset of the trade war experienced worse outcomes in terms of employment and output growth. Our analysis is not aimed at concluding any causality effects, but instead focuses on correlations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We revisit the Kaldor growth facts for the United States and the United Kingdom during the postwar period. We find that while overall the original Kaldor facts continue to hold, deviations occurred along several dimensions: Instead of staying constant, the growth rates of real GDP per worker and of real capital per worker have slowed down in the United States and the United Kingdom since the 1970s, the capital-to-output ratio has increased in the United Kingdom, and the share of income paid to labor has decreased in the United States since 1990. We discuss how to calculate the Kaldor facts in multi-sector growth models and establish that a slowdown in GDP-per-worker growth naturally results from secular changes in relative prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Comments on the paper presented by Tim Josling regarding the economic consequences of new negotiations in the agricultural trade. Significance of the Uruguay Round Agriculture Agreement (URAA); History of world production and trade in cereals; Trends in the United States grain exports; Changes in agricultural policies in industrial countries.

As a matter of arithmetic, the trends of US government debt and deficits will eventually result in an outrageously high government debt-to-GDP ratio. But when exactly will the United States hit the constraint of infeasibility and how exactly will policy adjust to it? This article considers fiscal dominance, which is the possibility that accumulating government debt and deficits can produce increases in inflation that “dominate” central bank intentions to keep inflation low. Is it a serious possibility for the United States in the near future? And how might various policies change (especially those related to the banking system) if fiscal dominance became a reality?. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An introduction is presented in which the author discusses various reports within the issue on topics including the impact of student loans on the health of balance sheets, allocation of savings before and after job losses, and role of financial innovation in the U.S. consumption.

This paper summarizes changes in housing prices during the recent U.S. boom and bust from various geographic perspectives. Nationally, the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller house price index more than doubled in nominal terms during the boom and has fallen by roughly a third subsequently. During the boom, housing prices tended to rise much faster in metropolitan areas in the East and West Coast regions than in the country's interior. After adjusting for inflation, 7 of 19 metropolitan areas have experienced real declines in housing prices from the start of the boom to the present. Although lower-priced houses showed a larger percentage increase during the boom, higher-priced houses fared relatively better over the boom and bust. Changes in land prices, which are not easily measured, appear to have driven housing prices to a greater extent than changes in the prices of housing structures. Internationally, seven countries experienced housing booms and busts; however, these countries tended to have larger booms and smaller absolute busts than the United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hernández-Murillo and Owyang (2006) showed that accounting for spatial correlations in regional data can improve forecasts of national employment. This paper considers whether the predictive advantage of disaggregate models remains when forecasting subnational data. The authors conduct horse races among several forecasting models in which the objective is to forecast regional- or state-level employment. For some models, the objective is to forecast using the sum of further disaggregated employment (i.e., forecasts of metropolitan statistical area [MSA]-level data are summed to yield state-level forecasts). The authors find that the spatial relationships between states have sufficient predictive content to overcome small increases in the number of estimated parameters when forecasting regional-level data; this is not always true when forecasting state- and regional-level data using the sum of MSA-level forecasts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides a systematic analysis of the lending performance of U.S. commercial banks and savings institutions that received financial support through the Capital Purchase Program (CPP) established in October 2008. The authors combine U.S. Treasury data on recipients of the CPP with quarterly financial data for the entire population of depository institutions to reconstruct aggregate lending and gross credit flows (expansion and contraction). CPP institutions experienced a less severe lending contraction than non-CPP institutions for all types of loans and bank asset levels. The authors find no evidence of unusual reallocation of lending across depository institutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents empirical evidence on the efficacy of forecast averaging using the ALFRED (ArchivaL Federal Reserve Economic Data) real-time database. The authors consider averages over a variety of bivariate vector autoregressive models. These models are distinguished from one another based on at least one of the following factors: (i) the choice of variables used as predictors, (ii) the number of lags, (iii) use of all available data or only data after the Great Moderation, (iv) the observation window used to estimate the model parameters and construct averaging weights, and (v) the use of either iterated multistep or direct multistep methods for forecast horizons greater than one. A variety of averaging methods are considered. The results indicate that the benefits of model averaging relative to Bayesian information criterion-based model selection are highly dependent on the class of models averaged The authors provide a novel decomposition of the forecast improvements that allows determination of the most (and least) helpful types of averaging methods and models averaged across. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How significant was the economic progress of African Americans in the United States between 1970 and 2000? In this paper the authors examine this issue for black men 25 to 55 years of age who live in 14 large U.S. metropolitan areas. They present evidence that significant racial disparities remain in education and labor market outcomes of black and white men, and they discuss changes in industrial composition, migration, and demography that might have contributed to the stagnation of economic progress of black men between 1970 and 2000. In addition, the authors show that there was no progress in the financial well-being of black children, relative to white children, between 1970 and 2000. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper the authors report the results of the estimation of a rich dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of the U.S. economy with both stochastic volatility and parameter drifting in the Taylor rule. They use the results of this estimation to examine the recent monetary history of the United States and to interpret, through this lens, the sources of the rise and fall of the Great Inflation from the late 1960s to the early 1980s and of the Great Moderation of business cycle fluctuations between 1984 and 2007. Their main findings are that, while there is strong evidence of changes in monetary policy during Chairman Paul Volcker's tenure at the Federal Reserve, those changes contributed little to the Great Moderation. Instead, changes in the volatility of structural shocks account for most of it. Also, although the authors find that monetary policy was different under Volcker, they do not find much evidence of a big difference in monetary policy among the tenures of Chairmen Arthur Burns, G. William Miller, and Alan Greenspan. The difference in aggregate outcomes across these periods is attributed to the time-varying volatility of shocks. The history for inflation is more nuanced, as a more vigorous stand against it would have reduced inflation in the 1970s, but not completely eliminated it. In addition, they find that volatile shocks (especially those related to aggregate demand) were important contributors to the Great Inflation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The literature on investment analysts' forecasts of firms' earnings and their forecast errors is enormous. This paper summarizes the evidence on the distribution of analysts' forecasts and forecast errors using data for all U.S. firms from 1990 to 2004. The evidence indicates substantial asymmetry of earnings, earning forecasts, and forecast errors. There is strong support for average and median earning forecasts being higher than actual earnings a year before the earnings announcement. Such differences between earnings and forecasts also exist across time periods and industries. A month before the earnings announcement, the mean and median differences are small. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Some analysts and economists recently warned that the U.S. economy faces a much higher risk of recession should the price of oil rise to $100 per barrel or more. In February 2008, spot crude oil prices closed above $100 per barrel for the first time ever, and since then they have climbed even higher. Meanwhile, according to some surveys of economists, it is highly probable that a recession began in the United States in late 2007 or early 2008. Although the findings in this paper are consistent with the view that the U.S. economy has become much less sensitive to large changes in oil prices, a simple forecasting exercise using Hamilton's model augmented with the first principal component of 85 macroeconomic variables reveals that a permanent increase in the price of crude oil to $150 per barrel by the end of 2008 could have a significant negative effect on the growth rate of real gross domestic product in the short run. Moreover, the model also predicts that such an increase in oil prices would produce much higher overall and core inflation rates in 2009 than most policymakers expect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper estimates a Bayesian vector autoregression for the U.S. economy that includes a housing sector and addresses the following questions: Can developments in the housing sector be explained on the basis of developments in real and nominal gross domestic product and interest rates? What are the effects of housing demand shocks on the economy? How does monetary policy affect the housing market? What are the implications of house price developments for the stance of monetary policy? Regarding the latter question, we implement a Céspedes et al. (2006) version of a monetary conditions index. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In November 2007, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced a change in the way it communicates its view of the economic outlook: It increased the frequency of its forecasts from two to four times per year, and it increased the length of the forecasting horizon from two to three years. The FOMC does not release the individual members' forecasts or standard measures of consensus such as the mean or median. Rather, it continues to release the forecast information as a range of forecasts, both the full range between the high and the low and a central tendency that omits the extreme values. This paper uses individual forecaster data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) to mimic the FOMC's method for creating their central tendency. The authors show that the midpoint of the central tendency of the SPF is a reliable measure of the consensus, suggesting that the FOMC reporting method is also a reliable measure of consensus. For the dates when both are available, the authors also compare the relative forecast accuracy of the FOMC and SPF consensus forecasts for output growth and inflation. Overall, the differences in forecast accuracy are too small to be statistically significant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]