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In this study, a multi-station and multi-instrument system, organized and proposed for ionospheric scintillation and equatorial spread-F (ESF) specification and their associated motions in the Taiwan–Philippines sector, is outlined. The issues related to the scintillation and ESF event observed on 26 October 2021, at magnetic quiet conditions are presented and discussed. We first indicate the existence of a plasma bubble in the Taiwan–Philippines sector by using the FormoSat-7/Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate-2 (FS7/COSMIC2) GPS/GLONASS radio occultation observations. We verify the latitudinal extent of the tracked plasma bubble using the recorded ionograms from the Vertical Incidence Pulsed Ionospheric Radar located at Hualien, Taiwan. We further discuss the spatial and temporal variabilities of two-dimensional vertical scintillation index VS4 maps based on the simultaneous GPS L1-band signal measurements from 133 ground-based receivers located in Taiwan and the surrounding islands. We also operate two high-sampling, software-defined GPS receivers and characterize the targeted plasma irregularities by carrying out spectrum analyses of the received signal. As a result, the derived plasma irregularities moved eastward and northward. Furthermore, the smaller the irregularity scale, the higher the spectral index and the stronger the scintillation intensity were at lower latitudes on the aimed irregularity feature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the variations in flow patterns in the northern Taiwan Strait in summer using high-frequency (HF) radar measurements, satellite-tracked drifter trajectories and numerical models. There is an obvious interaction between intra-diurnal tides and ocean currents in northwestern Taiwan. When the tide changes between high tide and low tide, the change in direction of the nearshore flow occurs before the change in the offshore flow. Drifter trajectories show that there are three different drifting paths in the Taiwan Strait in summer. One path is along the west coast of Taiwan from the southwest coast to the northeast coast. Another path is the same as the first one but leads northward to the East China Sea instead of eastward to the northeast coast of Taiwan. The other path exists along the west coast of Taiwan, some distance out, after being deflected by the bottom ridge. The regional ocean modeling system model was used in this study to clarify the influencing factors that lead to these three paths. The results of multiple simulations and HF radar data indicate that the bifurcation of the first two drift paths in northwestern Taiwan is caused by ebb and flood tide transitions. The different routes of the latter two paths are due to the significant speed difference between the nearshore current and the offshore current approximately 45 km from the coast. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The key factors, namely, the radar data quality, raindrop size distribution (RSD) variability, and the data integration method, which significantly affect radar-based quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) are investigated using the RCWF (S-band) and NCU C-POL (C-band) dual-polarization radars in northern Taiwan. The radar data quality control (QC) procedures, including the corrections of attenuation, the systematic bias, and the wet-radome effect, have large impact on the QPE accuracy. With the proper QC procedures, the values of normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) decrease about 10~40% for R(ZHH) and about 5~15% for R(KDP). The QPE error from the RSD variability is mitigated by applying seasonal coefficients derived from eight-year disdrometer data. Instead of using discrete QPEs (D-QPE) from one radar, the synthetic QPEs are derived via discretely combined QPEs (DC-QPE) from S- and C-band radars. The improvements in DC-QPE compared to D-QPE are about 1.5–7.0% and 3.5–8.5% in R(KDP) and R(KDP, ZDR), respectively. A novel algorithm, Lagrangian-evolution adjustment (LEA), is proposed to compensate D-QPE from a single radar. The LEA-QPE shows 1–4% improvements in R(KDP, ZDR) at the C-band radar, which has a larger scanning temporal gap (up to 10 min). The synthetic LEA-QPEs by combining two radars have outperformed both D-QPEs and DC-QPEs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme rainfall has caused severe road damage and landslide disasters in mountainous areas. Rainfall forecasting derived from remote sensing data has been widely adopted for disaster prevention and early warning as a trend in recent years. By integrating high-resolution radar rain data, for example, the QPESUMS (quantitative precipitation estimation and segregation using multiple sensors) system provides a great opportunity to establish the extreme climate-based landslide susceptibility model, which would be helpful in the prevention of hillslope disasters under climate change. QPESUMS was adopted to obtain spatio-temporal rainfall patterns, and further, multi-temporal landslide inventories (2003–2018) would integrate with other explanatory factors and therefore, we can establish the logistic regression method for prediction of landslide susceptibility sites in the Laonong River watershed, which was devastated by Typhoon Morakot in 2009. Simulations of landslide susceptibility under the critical rainfall (300, 600, and 900 mm) were designed to verify the model's sensitivity. Due to the orographic effect, rainfall was concentrated at the low mountainous and middle elevation areas in the southern Laonong River watershed. Landslide change analysis indicates that the landslide ratio increased from 1.5% to 7.0% after Typhoon Morakot in 2009. Subsequently, the landslide ratio fluctuated between 3.5% and 4.5% after 2012, which indicates that the recovery of landslide areas is still in progress. The validation results showed that the calibrated model of 2005 is preferred in the general period, with an accuracy of 78%. For extreme rainfall typhoons, the calibrated model of 2009 would perform better (72%). This study presented that the integration of multi-temporal landslide inventories in a logistic regression model is capable of predicting rainfall-triggered landslide risk under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, a dual-polarimetric radar observation operator is established and modified for the Taiwan area for the purpose of model verification. A severe squall line case during the Southwest Monsoon Experiment Intensive Observing Period 8 (SoWMEX IOP#8) on 14 June 2008, is selected and examined. Because the operator is adopted from the use of the midlatitude region, sensitivity tests are performed to obtain the optimal setting of the operator in the subtropical region. To accurately capture the dynamic structure of the squall lines, the ensemble-based data assimilation system, which assimilates both radial wind and reflectivity data, is used to obtain the optimal analysis field on the mesoscale for evaluating the performance of model simulation. The characteristics of two microphysics schemes are investigated, and the results obtained using the schemes are compared with the S-band dual-polarimetric radar observations. The horizontal and vertical cross-sections show that the analyses resemble the observations. Both schemes can replicate the polarimetric parameter signature such as Z D R and K D P columns. When comparing model simulation with polarimetric parameters through the drawing of contour frequency by altitude diagrams (CFADs), the results reveal that the single moment microphysics scheme performs better than the double moment scheme in this case. However, the reflectivity field in the stratiform area is more accurately captured when using the double moment scheme. Furthermore, validation with polarimetric variables ( Z H , Z D R and K D P ) histograms shows underestimation of the K D P field in both schemes. Overall, this study indicates the benefit of assimilating radial wind and reflectivity data for the analyses of severe precipitation systems and the necessity of assimilating polarimetric parameters for the accuracy of microphysical processes, especially complex microphysics schemes in subtropical region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this study was to develop an optimal estimation model for rainfall rate retrievals using radar reflectivity, thereby gaining an effective grasp of rainfall information for disaster prevention uses. A process was designed for evaluating the optimal retrieval models using various dataset combinations with radar reflectivity and ground meteorological attributes. Various ground meteorological attributes (such as relative humidity, wind speed, precipitation, etc.) were obtained using the land-based weather stations affiliated with Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau (CWB). This study used nine radar reflectivity provided by the Hualien weather surveillance radar station's Volume Cover Pattern 21 system. The developed models are built using multiple machine learning algorithms, including linear regression (REG), support vector regression (SVR), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), in addition to the Marshall–Palmer formula (MP). The study examined 14 typhoons that occurred from 2008 to 2017 at Chenggong station in southeast Taiwan, and Lanyu station in the outlying islands, and the top four major rainfall events were designated as test typhoons—Nanmadol (2011), Tembin (2012), Matmo (2014), and Nepartak (2016). The results indicated that for rainfall retrievals, radar reflectivity at a scanning (elevation) angle of 6.0° combined with ground meteorological attributes were the optimal input variables for the Chenggong station, whereas radar reflectivity at an elevation angle of 4.3° combined with ground meteorological attributes were optimal for the Lanyu station. In terms of model performance, XGBoost models had the lowest error index at Chenggong and Lanyu stations compared with MP, REG, and SVR models. XGBoost models at Lanyu station had the highest efficiency coefficient (0.903), and those at Chenggong station had the second highest (0.885). As a result, pairing the combination of optimal radar reflectivity and ground meteorological attributes, as verified by the evaluation process, with a high-efficiency algorithm (XGBoost) can effectively increase the accuracy of rainfall retrieval during typhoons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Geographical constraints limit the number and placement of gauges, especially in mountainous regions, so that rainfall values over the ungauged regions are generally estimated through spatial interpolation. However, spatial interpolation easily misses the representation of the overall rainfall distribution due to undersampling if the number of stations is insufficient. In this study, two algorithms based on the multivariate regression-kriging (RK) and merging spatial interpolation techniques were developed to adjust rain fields from unreliable radar estimates using gauge observations as target values for the high-elevation Chenyulan River watershed in Taiwan. The developed geostatistical models were applied to the events of five moderate to high magnitude typhoons, namely Kalmaegi, Morakot, Fungwong, Sinlaku, and Fanapi, that struck Taiwan in the past 12 years, such that the QPESUMS' (quantitative precipitation estimation and segregation using multiple sensors) radar rainfall data could be reasonably corrected with accuracy, especially when the sampling conditions were inadequate. The interpolated rainfall values by the RK and merging techniques were cross validated with the gauge measurements and compared to the interpolated results from the ordinary kriging (OK) method. The comparisons and performance evaluations were carried out and analyzed from three different aspects (error analysis, hyetographs, and data scattering plots along the 45-degree reference line). Based on the results, it was clearly shown that both of the RK and merging methods could effectively produce reliable rainfall data covering the study watershed. Both approaches could improve the event rainfall values, with the root-mean-square error (RMSE) reduced by up to roughly 30% to 40% at locations inside the watershed. The averaged coefficient of efficiency (CE) from the adjusted rainfall data could also be improved to the level of 0.84 or above. It was concluded that the original QPESUMS rainfall data through the process of RK or merging spatial interpolations could be corrected with better accuracy for most stations tested. According to the error analysis, relatively, the RK procedure, when applied to the five typhoon events, consistently made better adjustments on the original radar rainfall data than the merging method did for fitting to the gauge data. In addition, the RK and merging methods were demonstrated to outperform the univariate OK method for correcting the radar data, especially for the locations with the issues of having inadequate numbers of gauge stations around them or distant from each other. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]