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Limiting global warming to below 2 °C or 1.5 °C (relative to pre-industrial levels) has been broadly accepted as the long-term target to avert unbearable climate damages (IPCC 2018). To fulfill this climate goal, the world must rapidly reduce GHG emissions (mainly carbon emissions) to or below zero, which relies on implementing concrete emissions control policies and a green transformation (Rogelj et al. 2015), thus imposing severe challenges for countries at all development stages. As one of the fastest-growing economies, China emitted about 10 billion tons of CO2 in 2019, over 28% of global emissions (BP. 2020). Despite a slight decline in 2020, China’s carbon emissions are likely to increase again in the post-COVID-19 era (Le Quere et al. 2021). In 2015, China pledged to peak its carbon emissions by 2030 in its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) for the Paris Agreement. In 2020, China updated its climate targets with greater ambitions—a commitment to neutralize its CO2 emissions by 2060. Thus, it is crucial to investigate the design, implementation, and impacts of China’s climate policies, also providing valuable insights for climate governance in other regions. In the recent decades, several policies have helped China achieve its previous climate target, i.e., reducing its carbon intensity by 40–45% in 2020 relative to the 2005 level (Tang et al. 2019). These policies include the energy transition from fossil fuels to renewables (Duan et al. 2019), energy saving associated with efficiency enhancement (Huang et al. 2019), as well as economic transformation by total factor productivity (TFP) improvement (Yang et al. 2021). In the meantime, emerging climate policies such as carbon pricing and renewable energy incentives are expected to play an increasingly important role in reaching ambitious long-term goals (Yuan et al. 2020). With the development of big-data processing and computing technologies, the impacts of these energy and climate policies can be simulated and analyzed using various methodologies, including top-down general equilibrium models (Wu et al. 2020; Yuan et al. 2020), bottom-up technology aggregated models (Wang et al. 2020), climate-economic integrated models (Newbold and Marten 2014; Duan et al. 2019), and state-of-the-art decomposition methods (Chen et al. 2020). These methodologies need to be refined to help assessing different policy goals, particularly given multiple uncertainties (Otto et al. 2015). At the backdrop of these points, we initiated this Topical Collection, which includes six papers. The topics of the selected papers range from relationships between CO2 emissions and economic growth, policy and technology options for green transformation, to spatial inequality of capital distribution towards sustainability all embedded within the context of addressing global climate change from the regional perspective of the world’s largest emitter.

Climate change is occurring at accelerated rates in the Arctic, and its impacts are being experienced by human communities in the context of other environmental and societal stressors. This paper argues that an assessment of human vulnerability to climate change requires knowledge of these stressors, including the interactions among them that influence people’s sensitivity to climate risks and adaptability. This paper examines the role of multiple stressors in adaptation to climate change through a case study of Paulatuk, Northwest Territories, Canada. It is based on collaborative research involving semi-structured interviews with 28 participants, participant observation, and analysis of secondary sources of information. In the context of subsistence harvesting, climatic stressors have affected access to, and the availability of, some fish and wildlife and are making travel conditions more unpredictable and dangerous. These stressors are being experienced at the same time as societal stressors such as financial and social barriers to participating in subsistence, challenges with local schooling, lifestyle changes, housing shortage and overcrowding, and addiction. Many of the coping strategies used by people in Paulatuk to deal with stressors involve trade-offs, such as leaving the community for school or leaving school to participate in subsistence and switching species harvested in response to a decline in one species, which has undermined resilience to other stressors. This research demonstrates the need to consider the role of pre-existing environmental and societal stressors and diversity within communities in climate change adaptation planning in the Arctic.

There is a growing recognition of the contribution of the cryosphere to human societies. This is especially important in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH), where poverty and vulnerability are high and climate change impacts on the cryosphere are strong. However, there is a lack of synthesized knowledge about the contributions of the cryosphere to high mountain communities. This paper uses a cryosphere service framework—a derivative of the ecosystem service concept—to classify different goods and services provided by the cryosphere. Case studies were selected using an adapted systematic review methodology. These studies were then synthesized and examined through the lens of critical political ecology. The review shows that while the cryosphere provides a whole range of goods and services for mountain communities, not all of these are well documented. Material services like the supply of water for irrigation and agriculture, and disservices such as disasters, are better documented than non-material services like the spirituality of landscapes. The majority of the case studies do not use an interdisciplinary lens. While some studies on irrigation discuss the physical basis and human organization of irrigation, the literature on disasters mostly focuses on the physical processes and at most generalized loss and damage assessments. Further, most case studies do not use the critical epistemologies needed to examine how politics, power, and intersectionality influence societal responses to changes in the cryosphere. The paper suggests that future studies adopt interdisciplinary collaboration to understand human impacts and adaptive responses through critical political ecology frameworks.

With this letter, we respond to the commentary by Kamp et al. on our paper (Nunez et al. in Reg Environ Chang 20:39, 2020) that reports on potential biodiversity change in Central Asian grasslands using climate and land-use change scenarios. In their commentary, Kamp et al. criticize data and methods employed and discuss several shortfalls of our approach. In this response, we argue that in our paper projections of future biodiversity already acknowledge the issues indicated by Kamp et al. We elaborate on the reasons why. We maintain our main finding that, based on a number of contrasting scenarios (shared socioeconomic pathways and representative concentration pathways combinations), biodiversity in grasslands in Central Asia will potentially decline under each scenario. We conclude that while our data and methods conservatively estimate potential biodiversity changes in the Central Asian grasslands, they could be enriched with more elements. The results, however, are likely to confirm the vulnerability of these grasslands and the possible decline in their biodiversity.

This paper investigates the perspectives of a set of actors devoted to development in the Pacific on climate change, migration, and adaptation. While much of the debate over climate and migration is centred around the Small Island Developing States in the Pacific, little is known about how the debate is articulated at that regional level. Drawing on poststructuralist discourse theory and using semi-structured interviews with a set of development actors working in the region, the paper discerns three distinctive discourses on climate and migration. These are (1) a main discourse that promotes international labour migration as an adaptation response and two alternative discourses that challenge the main discourse’s views, by suggesting (2) that migration is of marginal importance and engagement with socio-economic factors that influence Pacific Islands' vulnerability is more pressing, and (3) that out-migration is undesirable but that communities may have to be relocated within their countries. The paper further explores why the discourse on labour migration may have emerged and why it is being perpetuated by actors that originate outside the Pacific region. The paper concludes by suggesting that significant differentials in economic and political resources exist between the main discourse and the alternative discourses. In addition to these empirical insights, the paper adds new findings to the growing literature on the politics of climate migration discourses. Unlike earlier work that identifies a shift from an alarmist to an optimist framing, it illustrates that both alarmist and optimistic imaginaries operate simultaneously in the discourse on labour migration.

Despite recent calls to limit future increases in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C, little is known about how different climatic thresholds will impact human society. Future warming trends have significant global food security implications, particularly for small island developing states (SIDS) that are recognized as being among the most vulnerable to global climate change. In the case of the Caribbean, any significant change in the region’s climate is likely to have significant adverse effects on the agriculture sector. This paper explores the potential biophysical impacts of a + 1.5 °C warming scenario on several economically important crops grown in the Caribbean island of Jamaica. Also, it explores differences to a > 2.0 °C warming scenario, which is more likely, if the current policy agreements cannot be complied with by the international community. We use the ECOCROP niche model to estimate how predicted changes in future climate could affect the growing conditions of several commonly cultivated crops from both future scenarios. We then discuss some key policy considerations for Jamaica’s agriculture sector, specifically related to the challenges posed to future adaptation pathways amidst growing climate uncertainty and complexity. Our model results show that even an increase less than + 1.5 °C is expected to have an overall negative impact on crop suitability and a general reduction in the range of crops available to Jamaican farmers. This observation is instructive as increases above the + 1.5 °C threshold would likely lead to even more irreversible and potentially catastrophic changes to the sustainability of Jamaica’s agriculture sector. The paper concludes by outlining some key considerations for future action, paying keen attention to the policy relevance of a + 1.5 °C temperature limit. Given little room for optimism with respect to the imminent changes that SIDS will need to confront in the near future, broad-based policy engagement by stakeholders in these geographies is paramount, irrespective of the climate warming scenario.

Contains fulltext : 173076.pdf (Publisher’s version ) (Open Access) Flood risk of all types of flooding is projected to increase based on climate change projections and increases in damage potential. These challenges are likely to aggravate issues of justice in flood risk management (hereafter FRM). Based on a discursive institutionalist perspective, this paper explores justice in Dutch FRM: how do institutions allocate the responsibilities and costs for FRM for different types of flooding? What are the underlying conceptions of justice? What are the future challenges with regard to climate change? The research revealed that a dichotomy is visible in the Dutch approach to FRM: despite an abundance of rules, regulations and resources spent, flood risk or its management is only marginally discussed in terms of justice. Despite that, the current institutional arrangement has material outcomes that treat particular groups of citizens differently, depending on the type of flooding they are prone to, area they live in (unembanked/embanked) or category of user (e.g. household, industry, farmer). The paper argues that the debate on justice will (re)emerge, since the differences in distributional outcomes are likely to become increasingly uneven as a result of increasing flood risk. The Netherlands should be prepared for this debate by generating the relevant facts and figures. An inclusive debate on the distribution of burdens of FRM could contribute to more effective and legitimate FRM. 16 december 2016

In this paper, we contribute to recent attempts to operationalize the measurement of climate resilience by measuring household resilience to climate shocks and by assessing the role of farmer innovations in enhancing climate resilience. Adapting the Food and Agriculture Organization’s resilience tool, we develop a household resilience index using survey data from rural farm households in northern Ghana. The index consists of six components and 23 indicators and was constructed using two indicator-weighting approaches. The proposed resilience index is a simple tool that can be used to quantitatively assess the resilience of households to the incidence of climate shocks and to monitor interventions aimed at building rural household resilience to unpredictable shocks. The results indicate that farm households in the study region are weakly resilient to climate shocks. We also show that farmers go beyond adoption of externally driven technologies to develop their very own innovations, and these innovations contribute significantly to enhancing household resilience to climate shocks. Using propensity score matching method, we found that farmer innovators are about 6% more resilient to climate shocks than non-innovators. This result is robust to alternative weighting approaches and matching algorithms, and also to hidden bias. The paper concludes that policy efforts aiming at enhancing farm households’ resilience to climate shocks should consider providing support for farmers’ innovations.

Small island developing states (SIDS) are among the most vulnerable in the world to the impacts of climate change. SIDS have prioritised adaptation to climate change as it is widely accepted that some climate change is inevitable. Given the high cost of adaptation and the financial constraints faced by SIDS, many have pursued international adaptation financing to meet adaptation costs and ease domestic constraints. This paper analyses international adaptation financing commitments to SIDS across multiple regions between 2010 and 2014. It has three aims. First, it identifies trends in this financing from Members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development to SIDS. Second, using a multivariate regression model, it identifies the determinants of this financing to SIDS, compared to other developing countries. Third, it elicits the perspectives of policy-makers in SIDS on their experience with international adaptation financing to date. This study finds that (1) the allocation of funding and donor commitments to SIDS is highly skewed, (2) whether a country is classified as a SIDS is a determinant of the amount of adaptation financing it can expect to receive—other determinants include population, per capita income, governance quality and vulnerability, depending on how it is conceptualised and measured, and (3) SIDS are dissatisfied with the current levels of international adaptation financing and their experience with accessing it. This paper concludes that, while international adaptation flows have not been sufficient, SIDS have not been disadvantaged in their access to such financing over the period, compared to other developing countries.

Mainstreaming climate change adaptation (CCA) into plans and programs is still a new approach in adaptation and thus there is limited information on how to operationalize it on-ground. This paper addresses this gap by investigating the challenges in mainstreaming CCA into the local land use plans in the province of Albay, Philippines. Specifically, this paper developed 20 quantitative “mainstreaming indicators” to assess the state-of-play and the challenges for local mainstreaming. These indicators were classified under three groupings, namely, the information, institutional, and resource capacities of systems. Qualitative analysis of the indicator scores suggested that developing the institutional capacities of local governments is crucial in the local mainstreaming process. Likewise, the results highlighted the “institutional issues” indicator as the primary barrier in operationalizing the approach. These institutional issues are: fragmented laws and regulations; overlapping policy requirements; and the lack of guidelines for mainstreaming CCA into the local land use plans. Meanwhile, the “leadership” indicator, as signified by a climate change champion in Albay, was evaluated as an opportunity for local mainstreaming. The champion effectively led the CCA efforts because the existing institutional mechanisms supported the champion’s capacity to influence the behavior of people and produce collective action towards CCA.

This paper synthesizes what is known about the physical and biophysical impacts of climate change and their consequences for societies and development under different levels of global warming in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Projections show increasing mean temperatures by up to 4.5 °C compared to pre-industrial by the end of this century across LAC. Associated physical impacts include altered precipitation regimes, a strong increase in heat extremes, higher risks of droughts and increasing aridity. Moreover, the mean intensity of tropical cyclones, as well as the frequency of the most intense storms, is projected to increase while sea levels are expected to rise by ~0.2–1.1 mm depending on warming level and region. Tropical glacier volume is found to decrease substantially, with almost complete deglaciation under high warming levels. The much larger glaciers in the southern Andes are less sensitive to warming and shrink on slower timescales. Runoff is projected to be reduced in Central America, the southern Amazon basin and southernmost South America, while river discharge may increase in the western Amazon basin and in the Andes in the wet season. However, in many regions, there is uncertainty in the direction of these changes as a result of uncertain precipitation projections and differences in hydrological models. Climate change will also reduce agricultural yields, livestock and fisheries, although there may be opportunities such as increasing rice yield in several LAC countries or higher fish catch potential in the southernmost South American waters. Species range shifts threaten terrestrial biodiversity, and there is a substantial risk of Amazon rainforest degradation with continuing warming. Coral reefs are at increasing risk of annual bleaching events from 2040 to 2050 onwards irrespective of the climate scenario. These physical and biophysical climate change impacts challenge human livelihoods through, e.g., decreasing income from fisheries, agriculture or tourism. Furthermore, there is evidence that human health, coastal infrastructures and energy systems are also negatively affected. This paper concludes that LAC will be severely affected by climate change, even under lower levels of warming, due to the potential for impacts to occur simultaneously and compound one another., This research has been funded through the World Bank Project “Turn Down the Heat: Confronting the New Climate Normal,” and we are grateful to everybody involved in this activity for making it a success.

This paper contributes to an enhanced understanding of present climatic conditions, observed climate trends and regional climate vulnerability of the Bhutan Himalayas. Bhutan’s complex, often high-altitude terrain and the severe impact of the Indian summer monsoon leads to a strong exposure of the countries’ key economic sectors (agriculture, forestry, hydropower generation and tourism) to climatic changes. Climate change also threatens Bhutan’s vast biodiversity and increases the likelihood of natural hazards (e.g. glacier lake outburst floods, flash floods, droughts and forest fires). A better understanding of Bhutan’s climate and its variability, as well as observed and possible climate impacts, will help in improving the handling of regional social, economic and ecologic challenges not limited to the Himalayas. Only a few climatological studies exist for the eastern Himalayas. They mainly focus on adaptation to immediate threats by glacier lake outbursts. In contrast, this paper (1) investigates the average spatial and inner-annual diversity of the air temperature regime of Bhutan, based on local meteorological observations, (2) discusses past temperature variability, based on global datasets, and (3) relates effects of observed warming to water availability, hydropower development, natural hazards, forests, biodiversity, agriculture, human health and tourism in the Bhutan Himalayas. Results indicate a large spatial and temporal temperature variability within Bhutan and considerably increasing temperatures especially over recent decades. Implications of regional climatic changes on various socio-economic sectors and possible adaptation efforts are discussed.

The goal of the journal Regional Environmental Change (REEC) is to publish scientific research and opinion papers that improve our understanding of the extent of environmental changes, their causes, their impacts on people, and the options for society to respond. Reflecting growth of the environmental change field, the journal has expanded rapidly in recent years, with the annual number of published articles reaching 169 in 2014, a more than fivefold increase since 2010, and more than a quarter of all 735 articles published since the journals founding in 1999. To account for this increase, the number of regular published journal issues was increased from 4 to 6 in 2013 and to 8 in 2015. I (James Ford) also joined the journal recently as joint Editor-in-Chief to work with the long-serving Wolfgang Cramer, in part to manage and cope with the everincreasing volume of submissions, but also to help further develop the interdisciplinary profile of the journal, specifically climate change content. This editorial identifies the kinds of climate change content we are looking to profile in REEC in the coming years, while also emphasizing that we continue to welcome and promote the submission of a wide variety of environmental change-focused articles. Naturally, climate change has been a key concern of REEC in recent decades, and since the journals founding approximately half of our published articles have had a climate change focus (n = 374) (Fig. 1). Proportionally, climate change articles have also increased in importance over time and are the focus of a quarter of articles from 1999 to 2009 and 60 % from 2010 to 2015 (Fig. 1). Already in the first 3 months of 2015, more climate change papers were published in the journal than from 1999 to 2008 combined. The impact (and breadth) of climate change articles published in REEC has increased over time and is particularly notable in the Fifth Assessment Report of Working Group II (WGII) to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), with REEC articles cited across 26/30 chapters (Fig. 2). The main focus of climate change articles in the journal to date has been on impacts (n = 202, 54 %), where studies identify and evaluate the detrimental and beneficial consequences of climate change on natural and human systems. This focus is intentional: Indeed, we routinely advise authors of papers dealing with climate change processes to submit to expert climatological journals instead. Modeling future impacts in particular has been an important focus in this work, with studies reporting from a diversity of sectors and geographic regions. Vulnerability is the focus of 22 % (n = 82) of climate change-focused articles, with emphasis on the biophysical and human factors which affect sensitivity, adaptive capacity, and resilience to change. These articles began to appear in the journal in the last years of the 2000s, with peaks in 2010 and 2011. A limited number of adaptation studies were published in the first decade of the journal’s existence, but have emerged as an important focus since 2010, forming 24 % of all climate change content (n = 90); this mirror trends in the adaptation literature in general (Berrang-Ford et al. 2011). As the climate change field continues to grow, we expect climate change-focused submissions to further rise, although—like other journals—we will of course always favor quality before quantity. Our interest will be to publish a diversity of studies in the field, emphasizing the interdisciplinary focus of cutting-edge research. We focus & James D. Ford James.ford@mcgill.ca

Flood risk management and policy in Europe are changing, so the role of local and catchment-wide flood risk management plans is now key contemporary issues in flood policy. A new policy agenda is to enhance inter-local solutions instead of local flood alleviation schemes. This paper analyses the new role of those local authorities and stakeholders in flood risk management as well as how the nature of the partnerships is established and operated, focusing especially on the main barriers and challenges. This paper examines catchment-based flood risk management in Austria. Catchment-based flood risk management was analysed in three different Austrian regions (Aist in Upper Austria, Triesting-Tal in Lower Austria and Ill-Walgau in Vorarlberg). The current functions of a partnership approach in flood risk prevention lie within the selection of sites for conservation of regionally important retention areas, harmonising spatial planning instruments and awareness-raising for protective measures on an inter-local level. The empirical results are currently characterised by a lack of sufficient co-operation between the members as well as with the regional authorities. The three case studies show different backgrounds and developments. The results show that the inter-local co-operation process is in no cases fully achieved. Some of the case studies show a higher integration in one field than others.

Social learning can be a vital tool in assisting communities to adapt to change. Local governments can be a conduit between the communities they serve and the policy that they are trying to implement. Social learning in this context can be an iterative, often organic process. Based on a case study of coastal planning in South Australia, Australia, this paper presents the results of a qualitative mixed-method approach that documents the aspects of social learning within coastal management and evaluates the various lessons learned by local governments in South Australia. The role of social learning and adaptive governance is discussed. The paper concludes that by deliberatively incorporating the notion of communities of practice into learning frameworks, local governments can more effectively manage their coastal zones in response to global change.

Recent years have witnessed a rapid increase in scholarship on adaptation to climate change. Peer-reviewed literature, governmental communiques and reports are increasingly reporting formulated and implemented climate change adaptation policies, strategies and plans of action. A large part of this literature describes general policy strategies, while there is limited published work on adaptation interventions at the local scale. The generality of adaptation is not only limited to strategies but also in terms of coverage of regions believed to be highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Among such climate change “hotspots” where understanding on adaptation is limited are river deltas. Herein, this paper synthesizes selected literature on adaptation policy and practice in river deltas located in Africa and South Asia. A systematic review methodology was used to scan online knowledge portals for published papers and also unpublished government documents. The review characterizes the state of adaptation policy in African and South Asian deltas and identifies future research priorities targeting climate change adaptation in large delta regions.

Despite an exponential growth in the volume of adaptation research over the last decade, there is still a research gap in regard to the provision of suitable information to adequately inform climate change adaptation policy makers. Contributing to this gap is a paucity of research reporting on the effectiveness of implemented adaptation strategies. This paper reports on the success, failures and future risks of the responses taken by the South East Queensland (SEQ) water sector during the Millennium Drought. The adaptation strategy employed a portfolio approach mixing 'hard' and 'soft' adaptations. Strategies included the following: large-scale water manufacturing facilities and distribution networks; the exploitation of local water resources; regulatory instruments; institutional reforms; support for research and training and a range of demand management programmes. The strategies employed were innovative and in many cases required rigorous scientific evidence for their development, implementation and follow-up assessments. However, we show that there has been considerable disparity between anticipated and actual policy outcomes, which points to maladaptive consequences. By revisiting the effectiveness of implemented adaptation strategies in the SEQ water sector, our paper provides evidence for the need for integrative studies with genuine policy integration.

This paper applies vulnerability assessment methodology to assess the comparative vulnerability of different tourism supply types by region in Hungary. The steps of the methodology include (1) definition of tourism supply typology, (2) identifying exposure indicators, (3) identifying sensitivity indicators, (4) identification of adaptive capacity indicators and (5) developing a vulnerability map. It is clear that climate change has potential negative effects on tourism in Hungary, but the spatial distribution, as well as the sub-sectoral (by tourism supply types) differences of these impacts is almost unknown. Most research papers dealing with the vulnerability of tourism mainly focus on a specific tourism type, whereas this article aims to address all of them from a regional point of view. The key results presented in this paper include the vulnerability map of the country showing the relative vulnerability of different tourism supply types and detailed analysis investigating the possible causes and driving factors. We have categorized tourism regions based on the five most vulnerable tourism supply types. The most significant of them all turned out to be outdoor event-based tourism, being the most vulnerable in the two southern regions, since the expected impacts of climate change are foreseen to be the most significant in these areas.

Crop models are one of the most commonly used tools to assess the impact of climate variability and change on crop production. However, before the impact of projected climate changes on crop production can be addressed, a necessary first step is the assessment of the inherent uncertainty and limitations of the forcing data used in these crop models. In this paper, we evaluate the simulated crop production using separate crop models for maize (summer crop) and wheat (winter crop) over six different locations in the Southeastern United States forced with multiple sources of actual and simulated weather data. The paper compares the crop production simulated by a crop model for maize and wheat during a historical period, using daily weather data from three sources: station observations, dynamically downscaled global reanalysis, and dynamically downscaled historical climate model simulations from two global circulation models (GCMs). The same regional climate model is used to downscale the global reanalysis and both global circulation models’ historical simulation. The average simulated yield derived from bias-corrected downscaled reanalysis or bias-corrected downscaled GCMs were, in most cases, not statistically different from observations. Statistical differences of the average yields, generated from observed or downscaled GCM weather, were found in some locations under rainfed and irrigated scenarios, and more frequently in winter (wheat) than in summer (maize). The inter-annual variance of simulated crop yield using GCM downscaled data was frequently overestimated, especially in summer. An analysis of the bias-corrected climate data showed that despite the agreement between the modeled and the observed means of temperatures, solar radiation, and precipitation, their intra-seasonal variances were often significantly different from observations. Therefore, due to this high intra-seasonal variability, a cautious approach is required when using climate model data for historical yield analysis and future climate change impact assessments.

The effectiveness of various adaptation options is dependent on the capacity to plan, design and implement them. Understanding the determinants of adaptive capacity is, therefore, crucial for effective responses to climate change. This paper offers an assessment of adaptive capacity across a range of sectors in South East Queensland, Australia. The paper has four parts, including (1) an overview of adaptive capacity, in particular as a learning process; (2) a description of the various methods used to determine adaptive capacity; (3) a synthesis of the determinants of adaptive capacity; and (4) the identification of mechanisms to build adaptive capacity in the region. We conclude that the major issue impacting adaptive capacity is not the availability of physical resources but the dominant social, political and institutional culture of the region.

Concerns about the security implications of climate change are increasing. The growing academic literature on the topic suggests that linkages between climate change and armed conflict are shaped by structural risk factors, but micro-level variation and mechanisms remain poorly understood and flood responses are hardly studied. In this paper, we strive to contribute to a better understanding of such micro-level patterns and investigate how flood exposure affects the support for violence in the Karamoja region of Uganda, which is characterized by many structural vulnerabilities to climate change and armed conflict. We use unique household-level survey panel data and investigate changes in survey responses following a destructive flood. Our study finds that flood exposure was associated with greater support for the use of violence. However, while we identify some adverse impacts of flood exposure on the perceived and actual socio-economic conditions of households and a decrease in perceptions of government support, these do not seem to mediate the estimated flood impact on support for violence against expectations. Our findings point to the limited explanatory power of natural hazards’ economic impacts alone for conflict risk. Further investigation of causal mechanisms between climate hazards and conflict remains an important priority for future research.

The concept of relative vulnerability allows for comparisons between analogous units in a regional context. It is utilised within tourism studies to consider how climate change might affect demand and perceived attractiveness of destinations relative to their competitors. This paper examines Australian tourists travelling to New Zealand’s ski fields, responding to the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) assertion that, “tourist flows from Australia to New Zealand might grow as a result of the relatively poorer snow conditions in Australia” (Hennessy et al. 2007: p 523). This travel flow is not a new phenomenon; however, it is forecast to increase as climate change impacts upon Australia’s natural and man-made snowmaking capacity with implications for the viability of the ski industries in both Australia and New Zealand. The Queenstown Lakes Region (South Island, New Zealand) serves as the field area for this study. The empirical research utilises a qualitative methodology for which in-depth, semi-structured interviews were conducted with New Zealand ski industry representatives and Australian tourists during the southern hemisphere winter season of 2011. Findings suggest that the social context of vulnerability creates difficulty in forecasting the outcomes and behaviours associated with relative vulnerability. While tourism representatives’ focus on snow reliability and availability to conceptualise relative vulnerability, Australian tourists are influenced by a broader range of factors including their own travel experience. This paper demonstrates a clear need to move beyond a focus on snow reliability to consider the broad range of factors that contribute to regional variations in vulnerability. In doing so, it confirms the critical importance of situating relative vulnerability within a social context.

Land cover changes induced by historical cultivation in ecologically fragile areas involving important issues such as environmental change, ecology, and human sustainability are particularly worthy of attention. This paper reconstructs the spatial distribution of cultivated areas at the county level in the eastern farming-pastoral ecotone of northern China for four time periods during the twentieth century. The paper also analyzes how the location of cultivation ratio contours of 15 and 30 %, representing the boundaries of agricultural areas, have moved and the formation process of farming-pastoral ecotone patterns during this period. The study concludes that the area and ratio of cultivated land fluctuations increased during the twentieth century. The boundaries of the cultivation ratio contours of 15 and 30 % continually moved west and north. Moving north took priority over the other directions during the period of 1916–1940, when its center moved the farthest during the twentieth century, and the boundaries primarily moved westward during 1940–1980 and northwestward during 1980–2000. The distance, direction, and extent of the movement of the cultivation boundaries are all related to agricultural area expansion processes during this period, finally resulting in the creation of the modern farming-pastoral ecotone pattern.

While cities continue to cast a large environmental imprint on their regionally proximate environments, they are also exerting a stronger influence on the natural systems of more remote locations because of their growing interconnectedness and interdependence with other cities—in a word, globalization. This paper reviews some of the characteristic features of globalization and its environmental impacts. It also discusses possible responses to these developments and focuses in particular on the critical role that urban infrastructure systems can play. The paper concludes with a discussion of how one might conduct analyses supporting the management of changes in urban infrastructure systems to lighten urban environmental imprints.

As a popular assumption, the cities are considered to exert a major impact on their hinterland. In fact, little is known about this imprint on the earlier period. This paper will thus try to delineate as far as possible urban and rural contributions to the imprint by using a cause and effect analysis. The paper argues that the birth of second generation cities like Brussels is the result of a demographic and economic process occurring in the rural environment. Above all in a second phase, once the process of human concentration within the city initiated and the town became a market center and a consumer power, rural developments changed under the urban imprint: at that moment the city imposed a certain spatial structure on the rural system with intensive and high profitability cultures replacing extensive practices.

This paper studies climatic drivers (air and water temperature, precipitation rates, river discharge, sea level and storm patterns) in four Mediterranean regions: the Catalan-Valencia Coast (Spain), the Oran (Algeria) and Gabes (Tunisia) Gulfs and the western Nile Delta (Egypt). The paper also considers the potential hazards that these drivers can induce. It first analyses climatic trends in the drivers, taking into account the available time series of recorded and simulated meteo-oceanographic data from different sources. Next, it presents the general framework to assess biogeophysical hazards (flooding, erosion, droughts and water quality), followed by a simple and yet robust evaluation of those hazards for the four studied coastal sites. Assuming climate change projections under different scenarios and considering the observed trends in drivers, the resulting erosion rates due to sea-level rise and wave storm effects have been estimated. The Nile and Ebro Deltas, together with the Oran Gulf, are more vulnerable than the Gulfs of Valencia and Gabes. Regarding water quality in terms of (a) precipitation and dissolved oxygen in the water column and (b) sea surface temperature, the results show that the most vulnerable zones for the projected conditions (a) are the Gulfs of Oran, Valencia and Gabes, while the Nile Delta is the region where the decrease in water quality will be less pronounced. For the projected conditions (b), the most vulnerable zone is the Ebro Delta, while the impact in the other three cases will be smaller and of comparable magnitude. Finally, the overall future impact of these hazards (associated to climatic change) in the four sites is discussed in comparative terms, deriving some conclusions.

Climate change can be particularly hard-hitting for small underdeveloped countries, relying heavily on natural resources for the economy and livelihoods. Nepal is one among these countries, being landlocked, with diverse physiographical characteristics within a relatively small territory and with rugged terrain. Poverty is widespread and the capacity of people and the country to cope with climate change impact is low. The country is dominated by the Asian monsoon system. The main occupation is agriculture, largely based on rain-fed farming practices. Tourism based on high altitude adventures is one of the major sources of income for the country. Nepal has a large hydropower potential. While only 0.75% of the theoretical hydropower potential has been tapped, Nepal can greatly benefit from this natural resource in the future. Climate change can adversely impact upon water resources and other sectors of Nepal. The source of water is mainly summer monsoon precipitation and the melting of the large reserve of snow and glaciers in the Himalayan highlands. Observations show clear evidences of significant warming. The average trend in the country is 0.06°C per year. The warming rates are progressively higher for high elevation locations. The warming climate has resulted in rapid shrinking of majority of glaciers in Nepal. This paper presents state-of-knowledge on the glacial dynamics in the country based on studies conducted in the past in Shorong, Khumbu, Langtang, Dhaulagiri and Kanchenjunga regions of Nepal. We present recent trends in river flow and an overview of studies on expected changes in the hydrological regime due to climate change. Formation, growth and likely outburst of glacial lake are phenomena directly related to climate change and deglaciation. This paper provides a synopsis of past glacial lake outburst floods impacting Nepal. Further, likely impacts of climate change on other sectors such as agriculture, biodiversity, human health and livelihoods are discussed.

The southern Yucatan Peninsular Region project was designed from the outset as an integrative, multidisciplinary program of study examining tropical deforestation in the largest track of seasonal tropical forest remaining in Mexico and in which smallholder agriculture and a major biosphere reserve are juxtaposed in regard to land uses and covers. Treating land as a coupled human–environment system, the project joins the remote sensing, environmental, social, and modeling sciences in a way that is now recognized as land change science. This paper introduces the project, the study region, and six papers that explore some of the coupled system dynamics in the region. These include the sub-regional variation in deforestation, the pan-regional adoption or anticipation of cattle ranching, the emergence of divergent household agricultural and overall livelihood strategies, the roles of cultural and household histories in agricultural livelihood choices, the temporal intensification of swidden cultivation and its implications for forest species, and carbon stocks across cultivation units, including a new econometric modeling application to forecast changes in these stocks.

Within southern Africa, many households are facing increasing pressures as they deal with multiple challenges such as low employment, high levels of disease, environmental resources under pressure and changing political landscapes. To respond to the needs of different individuals and households, it is important to define the nature of their vulnerability. An increasing amount of theoretical and empirical work on the concept of ‘vulnerability’ has led to a range of definitions, indicators and measurement tools, which have come to characterise this field of study. As a result, there is no one general consensus. This paper presents the results from the latest in a series of applied studies conducted since 2004 by a network of scientists working in southern Africa, aimed at refining the definition and application of the concept of vulnerability. The study employed a recently developed multiple-stressor model to guide the collection and analysis of data from three sites in South Africa and Malawi. In this paper, we identify and explore five key ‘symptoms’ of vulnerability emerging from our multi-country data and reflect on the usefulness of the model employed.

This paper is a response to a recent special issue of Regional Environmental Change, “Quantifying vulnerability to drought from different disciplinary perspectives” (vol. 8, number 4, 2008). In this paper, we examine some of the challenges facing efforts to understand vulnerability to drought through quantification as they are manifest in some of the articles in this special issue.

This paper develops a conceptual model to examine the vulnerability of Inuit food systems to food insecurity as a consequence of climate change. The model illustrates that food system vulnerability is determined by the exposure and sensitivity of the food system to climate-related risks and its adaptive capacity to deal with those risks. The model is empirically applied using a case study from Igloolik, Nunavut. Specifically, the paper focuses on how extreme climate-related conditions in 2006 interacted with the food system to affect food security, using 2006 as a lens to identify and characterize some of the processes and conditions shaping vulnerability, and establishing a baseline for identifying and characterizing processes that are likely to shape future vulnerability. There is a high level of adaptive capacity among Igloolik Inuit, with food sharing mechanisms, hunting flexibility, and store-food access moderating the impact of climatic-risks on food security. However, high fuel and commodity prices, the increasing economic burden of adapting to back-to-back years with unfavorable climatic conditions, underlying community vulnerabilities, and the nature to the climate extremes in 2006, overwhelmed the adaptive capacity of many community members. Those dependent on traditional foods and having limited access to financial resources were particularly vulnerable.

The southeastern United States (SUS) is a region that exhibits considerable climate variability throughout the year along with high-impact weather extremes of severe weather and land-falling Atlantic tropical cyclones in the summer and fall, freeze events in the winter season, and tornadoes in the spring season. The SUS region has rapidly grown in terms of human population for last several decades that further exposes vulnerabilities to the frailties of nature. Furthermore, in the recent times, the agricultural production of the region has grown significantly with the rise in consumption and demand for bio fuels, increase in price and demand for commodity and food crops and increasing irrigation infrastructure that is subsidized by the state governments in the SUS. Similarly, the coastal development and capitalization of natural marine resource environment have also risen with the growing wealth of the population. All of these developments have led to an increasing interest in the understanding of the climate variations and change on the built and the natural environments of the SUS. This special issue is a manifestation of such an interest in the SUS with contributions from several climate-related inter-disciplinary groups including the Southeast Climate Consortium (SECC; http://seclimate. org/), the Florida Climate Institute (FCI; http://floridacli mateinstitute.org/), the University of Florida Water Institute (http://waterinstitute.ufl.edu/), and the Florida Water & Climate Alliance (FloridaWCA; http://www.floridawca.org). There are 15 research papers in this special issue covering climate science and its applications in hydrology, ecology, economy, crop science, and social science. It is quite apparent from the diverse set of papers that the demand for ‘‘reliable’’ regional-scale climate data over the SUS is of considerable interest for climate impact assessment. As a result, there are several papers in this collection which dwell on developing the regional-scale climate information from dynamic downscaling (e.g., Misra et al. 2012), or from statistical downscaling (e.g., Asefa and Adams 2013) or from a combination of statistical and dynamical downscaling (e.g., Hwang et al. 2013). Asefa and Adams (2013) introduced in their paper a new statistical bias correction technique for regional climate projections over central Florida based on a Bayesian approach that weights on the reliability of the global climate model in reproducing the observed climate. Hwang et al. (2013) highlight the merit of using dynamically downscaled and statistically bias-corrected climate data for hydrological applications over the Tampa Bay watershed. Misra et al. (2012) show the advantage and fidelity of dynamically downscaling the twentieth-century global atmospheric reanalysis (20CR) to 10 km grid resolution. For example, they demonstrate that data inhomogeneity issues over SUS in the 20CR are greatly ameliorated by the internal variations resolved by the dynamic downscaling to 10-km grid resolution. The interest in regional-scale climate information over SUS is also evidenced in a number of papers in this special issue investigating the reliability of some of the existing high-resolution regional climate datasets. LaRow (2012) analyzes the surface wind and precipitation in land-falling Atlantic tropical cyclones over the SUS from one of the existing global reanalyses downscaled to 10 km grid resolution. Similarly, Obeysekera (2013) interrogates the reliability of the meteorological variables used in the calculation of the surface evapotranspiration from the V. Misra (&) Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science & Florida Climate Institute & Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, USA e-mail: vmisra@fsu.edu

After the Copenhagen Conference in December 2009, it is more obvious than ever that adaptation to climate change is inevitable. Both the scientific and the policy communities will have to devote more attention to the issue of adaptation in the coming years. In this special issue, we focus on the tools and approaches that will be needed to meet the challenge of adaptation to climate change. This special issue is based on papers presented at a session at the Climate Change Congress held in Copenhagen in March 2009, which aimed to synthesize the current state of scientific knowledge on the issue of climate change as an input to the deliberations that were to take place at the end of the same year. Several important questions were addressed in the session and are examined in more detail here: What methods and tools are available to support adaptation decisions and also contribute to sustainable development? What kind of information and what communication channels are needed for adaptation decisions to be made in good time and in the right place? What general approaches to research and development are needed given the wide range of stakeholders to be involved and their diverse interests to be respected in adaptation measures? As pointed out by Banaszak and colleagues (in this issue), different people have different perceptions of the risks that they are facing and this leads to conflicts related to the implementation of adaptation measures. People filter the information that they receive about a risk through preexisting mental models, which cannot be changed easily. Groups of individuals sharing the same models are better able to communicate with each other and share their learning, while communication with groups with a different mental model is more difficult. Extreme events appear to provide opportunities to stimulate changes of mental models. Furthermore, participation both in decision-making and in reaping the benefits of action can also lead to such changes. The topic of ‘‘mental models’’ is also a focus of the paper by Valkering et al. (this issue), who use a multipleperspective approach as part of participatory scenario development. Taking the different perspectives of actors into account can contribute to more robust and flexible strategies for climate change adaptation. Valkering et al. show that during the process, the perspectives can change, for example as a result of context developments or learning among the participants. A change of perspective means that either the participants change their position or the dominance of particular perspectives shifts. An example is presented for climate change adaptation in the Netherlands. The results demonstrate the learning that took place when the perspectives approach was used. A comprehensive approach to provide decision support for adaptation is presented by Daniell and colleagues (in this issue), who note the need for capacity building and coordination over multiple governance levels. In addition to illustrating the variety of multilevel processes and the different actor groups engaged at each level, they also show the multitude of different policy domains that affect the adaptation to climate change (e.g. land use, water, transport and energy policy). Adaptation to climate change requires coordination over multiple levels of governance to arrive at acceptable local, regional and global management J. Jager (&) Vienna, Austria e-mail: jill.jaeger@speed.at

Climate change will have an impact on various sectors, such as housing, infrastructure, recreation and agriculture. Climate change may change spatial demands. For example, rising temperatures will increase the need for recreation areas, and areas could be assigned for water storage. There is a growing sense that, especially at the local scale, spatial planning has a key role in addressing the causes and impacts of climate change. This paper promotes an approach to help translate information on climate change impacts into a guiding model for adaptive spatial planning. We describe how guiding models can be used in designing integrated adaptation strategies. The concept of guiding models has been developed in the 1990s by Tjallingii to translate the principles of integrated water management in urban planning. We have integrated information about the present and future climate change and set up a climate adaptation guiding model approach. Making use of climate adaptation guiding models, spatial planners should be able to better cope with complexities of climate change impacts and be able to translate these to implications for spatial planning. The climate adaptation guiding model approach was first applied in the Zuidplaspolder case study, one of the first major attempts in the Netherlands to develop and implement an integrated adaptation strategy. This paper demonstrates how the construction of climate adaptation guiding models requires a participatory approach and how the use of climate adaptation guiding models can contribute to the information needs of spatial planners at the local scale, leading to an increasing sense of urgency and integrated adaptation planning process.

All over the world, there is a pressing need to better understand how climate change has been incorporated into governmental agendas, and evaluate the status of adaptation planning and interventions at the local level. In this paper, we seek to contribute towards bridging this gap by identifying local practices connected to climate adaptation in six large Brazilian cities, and presenting a framework, based on the existing literature, for assessing constraints to adaptation across the municipal level. Although local governments are not the only actors who can take the lead through their actions, the employed framework considers that effective adaptation planning in urban areas is highly dependent on municipal efforts. Our findings indicate that six aspects have the highest levels of impact on adaptation in the Brazilian cities studied: administrative practices, political will, level of commitment, mismatch between the scale of urban issues and the extent of local government authority, pressures from private sectors, and inspection. Although these barriers are not specific only to climate issues and can be identified in other environmental arenas, when combined, they cause and worsen constraints to advancing urban adaptation at the local level. Specifically concerning the local dynamics of urban planning, the combination of pressures from private sectors and insufficient inspection negatively affects the ability of these cities to consolidate adaptation interventions. Our results are helpful in the context of large cities, particularly in Global South, where, as in Brazil, competitive urbanism and specific interest groups confront municipal efforts, and make achieving adaptation more difficult.

Nomadic Mongolians move in specific areas in search of the best pastures and campsites for their herds and are highly dependent on natural resources for their livelihoods. Pastureland ecosystems are increasingly being affected by climate and other anthropogenic changes, such as socio-economic and cultural changes, challenging nomadic livelihoods in the drylands. The research presented in this paper is based on extensive semi-structured interviews with local herders, key informants, and focus group discussions in Northeast Mongolia. Nomadic herders’ perception and practices, supported by meteorological data, reveal that climate change has affected the provisioning of key ecosystem services, especially the availability of water and the quality and availability of pastureland. Many herders are now moving three times per year, not four, because of problems with water availability and increased dependence on local centres. For pastureland, changes in the absolute volume of rainfall is not the main problem. Rather, fine-grained changes in the timing of rainfall are interfering with plant growth, reducing pastureland quality. Together these are impacting livelihoods substantially. Such changes present challenges for current and future management of pastureland and adaptation to climate change at local and regional scales. Herd sizes have also increased in response to expanding market opportunities. Common property management changes are beginning to increase local herders' control over access to their neighbouring groups' traditional pasture and water. More extensive adaptation will be needed. The study suggests that valuing, maintaining, and conserving traditional ecological knowledge is essential if nomadic livelihoods are to be sustained through these changes.

Floods cause severe damage in terms of human and economic loss on a global scale. Moreover, the risk of flooding is increasing owing to a hydrological cycle intensified by climate change and by the concentration of population in cities vulnerable to flooding. Although conventional river-engineering structures, including continuous levees, flood-control dams, and drainage pump stations, have been installed in many countries to prevent flood damage, these measures are vulnerable to the large-scale floods that exceed the design level of the flood-control infrastructure. In contrast, traditional strategies and flood-control technology that has been used since ancient times allow inundation and instead strive to minimize flood damage in floodplains. Nevertheless, the onslaught of modern river-engineering methods means that traditional flood-control systems have been rapidly disappearing, with the concomitant decrease in floodplain inundation frequency. This paper reviews the current knowledge about traditional flood-control systems that are sustainable and provide effective flood countermeasures against future uncertainties. Furthermore, we describe the problems and solutions associated with the integration of traditional flood-control systems and conventional river-engineering methods to decrease flood damage in floodplains.

Improving green total factor productivity is an important step for China’s green transformation. By proposing a meta-frontier Malmquist Luenberger productivity indicator, this paper attempts to investigate China’s green productivity evolution and its determinants at the city level during the period of 2003–2016. Our results reveal that China has improved green productivity, and that exogenous technological change acts as the dominant force to drive the change of green productivity. Overall, the effects of technological change induced by environmental regulation (TCIER) have not been fully manifested. Further, we find significant spatial heterogeneities in TCIER: western China shows the highest contribution of TCIER to changes in green productivity, followed by central China, and the contribution is negative in eastern China, due to the region’s relatively lower growth rate in environmental regulation intensity. Nevertheless, from the perspective of evolutionary trends, the TCIER scores of all three regions exhibit upward trends during the review period, ultimately contributing positively to green productivity growth during the 12th Five-Year Plan period (2011–2015).

Climate risks and vulnerability continue to disproportionately affect the urban poor given their constrained adaptive capacity. This paper examines the urban poor’s perceptions and vulnerability to climate change in Kampala. Data was collected from a proportionate sample of 534 respondents drawn from households that were randomly selected from the city’s informal settlements and interviewed using a structured questionnaire. Six focus group discussions and 15 key informant interviews were conducted whose participants were purposively selected because of their knowledge and experiences. Quantitative data was analyzed using chi-square tests while content analysis was used to analyze qualitative data from key informant interviews and focus group discussions. A total of 96.6% of the households were aware of climate change, mainly perceived as rising temperatures and reduction in rainfall. Floods (53.4%) and droughts (27%) were the most commonly experienced climate risks, with the former considered more frequent and severe. Perceptions and vulnerability to climate risk varied with incomes, education level, marital status, main occupation, housing conditions and length of stay. Individuals with less wealth and education, employed in informal business and having insecure housing tenure were most vulnerable to flooding than they are to drought. The sensitivity of the urban poor communities is heightened by ecosystem degradation, poor access to urban infrastructure, utilities and services. With socio-economic attributes highly associated to climate change vulnerabilities, incorporating social dimensions and exchange of information between the vulnerable communities, planners and decision makers is necessary to inform the city’s adaptation policy and building long-term urban resilience. Partnerships are necessary between the urban authorities, communities, civil society and donors/financiers to improve housing and livelihoods in slums settlements. At the same time, strengthening co-production of climate information services, building climate change awareness, restoration of critical ecosystems and a broader inclusive adaptation planning are avenues for building resilient urban poor communities.

Streamflow dynamics are sensitive to both climate variability and land use change. However, estimating their separate and combined effects remains a research challenge. In South Africa, streamflow dynamics are important not only for irrigated agriculture but also for many rural communities that depend on streamflow for domestic water supply. In this paper, we analysed the effects of pine, wattle and eucalyptus plantation cover change vis-a-vis the effects of inter-annual climate variability on streamflow dynamics of the Upper Umvoti River in South Africa from 1994 to 2016. We modelled inter-annual variability in streamflow by precipitation, temperature and plantation cover using the Bayesian inference. We mapped plantation cover from Landsat satellite imagery. We found strong evidence for an interaction between temperature range and plantation cover net change on streamflow. Specifically, the plantation effect weakened under conditions of high-temperature range anomalies. We explain this interaction with a shift in soil water repellency and interception capacity within the plantation area under a changing temperature range, with important implications for the formation of surface runoff. Previous studies have assumed that the effects of climate variability and plantation cover change on streamflow dynamics are independent. Our results call this assumption into question. Hence, climate and land cover interdependencies should be accounted for in future statistical and process-based modelling studies.

The Hyrcanian climate in the northern parts of Iran has warmed over the past 50 years, but the impacts on plant species are unknown. As the longest-lived tree in the Hyrcanian forest, English yew, Taxus baccata L., is a rare and endangered species in the forests along the Iranian coasts of the Caspian Sea, which is likely affected by climate change. This paper explores the current and future distribution of this species, using four species distribution models. In order to project the effect of climate change on the distribution of English yew by 2050 and 2070, output from the HadGEM2-ES climate model was used for two RCPs scenarios (2.6 and 8.5). The results showed a good accuracy of all the models for the distribution of this species with a mean area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) of 0.92. Using ensemble forecasting as an algorithm for reducing the uncertainty in species distribution modeling shows that the suitable habitats for this species is about 6000 km2 for the current climate conditions in the study area. Range size analysis indicates that in 2050, in the most optimistic scenario (RCP 2.6), only 17% of the habitats will retain their suitability, while in the most pessimistic scenario (RCP 8.5), this amount will decrease to 2%. In 2070, in the most optimistic scenario, only 10% of the currently suitable habitats will retain their suitability, while in the RCP 8.5, no stable suitable habitats will be left. It is strongly recommended that the impacts of climate change on English yew should be considered in the management decisions and conservation plans in the Hyrcanian forests.

This paper investigates what is needed to make climate and weather information more usable for the wildlife management practitioners and ecological researchers in the Prairie Potholes Region (PPR) of the North Central United States. Using interviews, policy document analysis, and participant observation, we identify climate and weather information needs, barriers to use, and opportunities to provide better information to these users. We found that the research and management communities need guidance on how to interpret and apply existing information. Climate information needs in the PPR are driven by the need to understand how projected changes in precipitation will impact prairie wetland ecology. Primary needs include guidance towards selecting, interpreting, and using various climate information products to understand impacts and explanations of the differences between new products and previously available information. Another need includes information on how the societal responses to climate change will further impact ecological systems. Existing management priorities, limited institutional resources, and limited ecological data are remaining barriers that can be ameliorated by leveraging existing policy processes or trusted sources of information to provide guidance, thereby reducing time and costs associated with using climate information in wildlife policy planning. Throughout, we emphasize the importance of the social and ecological aspects of the decision-making context to shape climate information needs, barriers, and entry points. Additional research is needed on the diverse ways that users engage with and use climate information, and additional efforts are needed to co-produce guidance documents that interpret climate information for management and research communities.

Anthropogenic activities are mainly responsible for the accelerated pace and magnitude of global environmental and climate change. Although several programs aiming at fuelling climate change mitigation have been adopted internationally in the last decades and localized improvements have been observed, the results expected by international institutions are regrettably still out of reach. Meanwhile, societies have experienced a significant proliferation of community-based initiatives (CBIs) fostering sustainable societal transition through different practices. Some studies claim that bottom-up activities may address sustainability issues more efficiently than top-down policies when appropriately scaled up. However, these are based mostly on anecdotal local evidence, and a systematic evaluation of the extent of CBIs’ potential contribution to climate change mitigation action at a larger scale has never been investigated. This paper elaborates a scaling-up exercise for CBIs’ carbon reduction at a broader scale and presents results about potential implications for European countries. Our findings suggest that, although varying greatly among countries, CBIs’ contribution to reach GHG reduction targets at the European scale can be important. However, a carbon reduction of such magnitude requires a substantial societal engagement in sustainable activities. Although societies cannot rely solely on the scaling-up of lifestyle changes promoted by CBIs to fulfill future environmental targets, policy makers should not neglect the large potential of societal engagement and should try to facilitate synergies between CBIs, industries, and institutions in developing climate change mitigation action.

Growing evidence indicates that climate change will exacerbate the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events, particularly drought. The North China plain is an important agricultural production region that is subject to a significant shortage of water and is often hit by extreme weather events, particularly drought. Therefore, this study aims to examine how farmers in the North China plain take adaptive irrigation measures in response to drought, the determinants, and the effectiveness of their responses. The results show that, when confronted by severe drought, farmers change their irrigation practices by enhancing the intensity and increasing the efficiency of the irrigation to mitigate the negative effects of such drought. Factors such as the local irrigation infrastructure; provision of physical, financial, and technical policy support; and early-warning information services are of significant help to farmers in taking adaptive measures. Further analysis shows that such adaptive response significantly mitigates yield loss and reduces the risk of crop failure. The paper concludes with some policy implications.

The European Union (EU) is increasingly connected to the rest of the world via flows of people, capital, goods and resources, exposing it to the potential impacts of climate change occurring outside its borders, in addition to impacts occurring on and between EU countries themselves. However, there is currently no peer-reviewed literature that describes the way in which cross-border impacts might affect the EU as a whole, or what the pattern of exposure to cross-border impacts might look like from a European perspective. This paper describes the pathways via which the EU may be impacted and analyses indicator data to identify some of the potential key issues for EU adaptation. We find that many EU countries are more exposed than the global average to climate-related risks in the context of transboundary water dependency, trade openness, openness to asylum and globalisation. We introduce a typology of cross-border climate change impacts to guide future assessments and adaptation planning in the European Union: EU internal aspects resulting from climate risks shared between neighbouring member states and within the single market; EU external aspects resulting from climate impacts beyond the EU’s borders; and EU impacts on the rest of the world, recognising that the EU and its member states will themselves transmit impacts to others depending on the success of their own adaptation efforts. Cross-border climate impacts raise a number of challenges for EU adaptation—such as applying existing cohesion and external action mechanisms to build resilience to cross-border climate change impacts, or monitoring member states to track changes in exposure to “internal” cross-border climate risks; and to research—such as making better use of economic, trade and other supply chain modelling and data analysis to assess climate-related risks, as well as other methods and approaches that have not been applied widely in adaptation studies to date. Overcoming these challenges will help to advance society’s understanding of and preparedness for cross-border climate change impacts.

Across High Asia, the amount, timing, and spatial patterns of snow and ice melt play key roles in providing water for downstream irrigation, hydropower generation, and general consumption. The goal of this paper is to distinguish the specific contribution of seasonal snow versus glacier ice melt in the major basins of High Mountain Asia: Ganges, Brahmaputra, Indus, Amu Darya, and Syr Darya. Our methodology involves the application of MODIS-derived remote sensing products to separately calculate daily melt outputs from snow and glacier ice. Using an automated partitioning method, we generate daily maps of (1) snow over glacier ice, (2) exposed glacier ice, and (3) snow over land. These are inputs to a temperature index model that yields melt water volumes contributing to river flow. Results for the five major High Mountain Asia basins show that the western regions are heavily reliant on snow and ice melt sources for summer dry season flow when demand is at a peak, whereas monsoon rainfall dominates runoff during the summer period in the east. While uncertainty remains in the temperature index model applied here, our approach to partitioning melt from seasonal snow and glacier ice is both innovative and systematic and more constrained than previous efforts with similar goals.

This paper examines historical and future changes in normalised damages resulting from climate-related natural disasters for the Caribbean. Annualised damages of USD824 million are shown to be non-stationary over the historical period 1964 to 2013. Perturbations of (i) sea surface temperatures (SST) in the tropical North Atlantic (TNA) and (ii) the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) appear to be associated with historical damages. Both the TNA and AMO are known modulators of hurricane activity and rainfall amounts in the Caribbean. Indicative future damages are determined using (i) cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) of perturbed climate states and (ii) an artificial neural network (ANN) model of damages using projected TNA values and the state of the AMO derived from an ensemble of five coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCMs) run under the RCP 4.5 scenario. Estimates of future damages are determined when global mean surface temperatures (GMST) reach and exceed 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels. Annual normalised damages may potentially increase to at least USD1395 million or close to double for 1.5 °C. At 2 °C, higher damages may occur; however, large uncertainty across all GCMs prohibits the identification of significant difference between 1.5 and 2 °C. Significant differences in damages do, however, exist for at least two of the GCMs for the two climate states. The robustness of the results is discussed in light of a number of issues, including limitations associated with the data.

Formal institutions impact on the dynamics of land use change through their objectives, actions and decision-making processes in response to socio-economic or environmental changes such as climate change. The effects and interplay of these actions are not fully understood, and hence, institutional processes are rarely integrated in modelling analyses of land use change. The complex effects of institutional interactions within land systems can be better understood through modelling approaches that address the heterogeneity of the institutional actors involved and how their decisions affect temporal and spatial dynamics. In this paper, we present an agent-based model of autonomous land managers interacting with institutional agents at two spatial scales. We explore different parameters of institutional intervention (subsidy rate, triggers for action, delay in monitoring, scale-based precedence) under socio-economic drivers and analyse key metrics such as the maximum over- and undersupply of ecosystem services, connectivity of land uses, and degree of change in land use patterns. Levels of subsidy and action triggers have the greatest impact on the magnitude of land use change and the maximum oversupply of ecosystem services. In terms of achieving institutional objectives, subsidy rate is the most important single parameter in the model. Furthermore, we find non-linearity with variations in parameters that have important implications for current land use change modelling and requirements for empirical studies of land use planning institutions. Finally, the effects of high-end climate change may require entirely novel institutional behaviours.

Understanding the local effects of global warming-derived impacts is important to island systems due to their fragile environmental conditions. This is especially true when it comes to Mediterranean insular regions as they are climate change (CC) hotspots where adaptation and mitigation policy design is an urgent matter. Looking at 2030 as a time horizon for climate action and focusing on the Balearic Islands, this paper reviews the physical changes projected for the coming decades as a result of CC and analyses their impacts on regional environmental, economic and social variables. Mitigation and adaptation measures are also proposed based on the identified priority impacts. The fact the Balearics are a top world holiday destination allows the analysis to serve as a guide to other Mediterranean islands with tourism-based economies facing similar CC scenarios. Results show the projected rise of temperature and sea level; the reduction of the average precipitation and increase in evapotranspiration, the droughts and the increase in ocean acidification and deoxygenation are the main threats faced by the Balearics, this putting their economy at risk due to the high tourism’s vulnerability to CC. Mitigation and adaptation action on terrestrial and marine ecosystems, water resources, energy, infrastructure and urban planning, human health, economy, law and education is recommended. Sustainable mobility and waste managing are also viewed as important fields for mitigation action. Conclusions show that diversifying the current socioeconomic model is needed to increase the community and territory resilience. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10113-021-01810-1.

This article has an error that was introduced during the publishing process. In this paper, Figure 3 is mistakenly identical to Figure 2. The correct Figure 3 and its caption are provided here.