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BackgroundIn older populations disturbed 24-h activity rhythms, poor sleep, and depressive symptoms are often lingering and co-morbid, making treatment difficult. To improve insights into these commonly co-occurring problems, we assessed the bidirectional association of sleep and 24-h activity rhythms with depressive symptoms in middle-aged and elderly persons.MethodsIn 1734 participants (mean age: 62.3 ± 9.3 years, 55% women) from the prospective Rotterdam Study, 24-h activity rhythms and sleep were estimated with actigraphy (mean duration: 146 ± 19.6 h), sleep quality with the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index, and depressive symptoms with the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression scale. Repeated measures were available for 947 participants (54%) over a median follow-up of 6 years (interquartile range = 5.6–6.3). Linear-mixed models were used to assess temporal associations of 24-h activity rhythms and sleep with depressive symptoms in both directions.ResultsHigh 24-h activity rhythm fragmentation (IV) (B = 1.002, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.641–1.363), long time in bed (TIB) (B = 0.111, 95% CI = 0.053–0.169), low sleep efficiency (SE) (B = −0.015, 95% CI = −0.020 to −0.009), long sleep onset latency (SOL) (B = 0.009, 95% CI = 0.006–0.012), and low self-rated sleep quality (B = 0.112, 95% CI = 0.0992–0.124) at baseline were associated with increasing depressive symptoms over time. Conversely, more depressive symptoms at baseline were associated with an increasing 24-h activity rhythm fragmentation (B = 0.002, 95% CI = 0.001–0.003) and TIB (B = 0.009, 95% CI = 0.004–0.015), and a decreasing SE (B = −0.140, 95% CI = −0.196 to −0.084), SOL (B = 0.013, 95% CI = 0.008–0.018), and self-rated sleep quality (B = 0.193, 95% CI = 0.171–0.215) over time.ConclusionThis study demonstrates a bidirectional association of 24-h activity rhythms, actigraphy-estimated sleep, and self-rated sleep quality with depressive symptoms over a time frame of multiple years in middle-aged and elderly persons.

BackgroundClarifying the relationship between depression symptoms and cardiometabolic and related health could clarify risk factors and treatment targets. The objective of this study was to assess whether depression symptoms in midlife are associated with the subsequent onset of cardiometabolic health problems.MethodsThe study sample comprised 787 male twin veterans with polygenic risk score data who participated in the Harvard Twin Study of Substance Abuse (‘baseline’) and the longitudinal Vietnam Era Twin Study of Aging (‘follow-up’). Depression symptoms were assessed at baseline [mean age 41.42 years (s.d. = 2.34)] using the Diagnostic Interview Schedule, Version III, Revised. The onset of eight cardiometabolic conditions (atrial fibrillation, diabetes, erectile dysfunction, hypercholesterolemia, hypertension, myocardial infarction, sleep apnea, and stroke) was assessed via self-reported doctor diagnosis at follow-up [mean age 67.59 years (s.d. = 2.41)].ResultsTotal depression symptoms were longitudinally associated with incident diabetes (OR 1.29, 95% CI 1.07–1.57), erectile dysfunction (OR 1.32, 95% CI 1.10–1.59), hypercholesterolemia (OR 1.26, 95% CI 1.04–1.53), and sleep apnea (OR 1.40, 95% CI 1.13–1.74) over 27 years after controlling for age, alcohol consumption, smoking, body mass index, C-reactive protein, and polygenic risk for specific health conditions. In sensitivity analyses that excluded somatic depression symptoms, only the association with sleep apnea remained significant (OR 1.32, 95% CI 1.09–1.60).ConclusionsA history of depression symptoms by early midlife is associated with an elevated risk for subsequent development of several self-reported health conditions. When isolated, non-somatic depression symptoms are associated with incident self-reported sleep apnea. Depression symptom history may be a predictor or marker of cardiometabolic risk over decades.

BackgroundThe prevalence of serious psychological distress (SPD) was elevated during the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA, but the relationships of SPD during the pandemic with pre-pandemic SPD, pre-pandemic socioeconomic status, and pandemic-related social stressors remain unexamined.MethodsA probability-based sample (N = 1751) of the US population age 20 and over was followed prospectively from February 2019 (T1), with subsequent interviews in May 2020 (T2) and August 2020 (T3). Multinomial logistic regression was used to assess prospective relationships between T1 SPD with experiences of disruption of employment, health care, and childcare at T2. Binary logistic regression was then used to assess relationships of T1 SPD, and socioeconomic status and T2 pandemic-related stressors with T3 SPD.ResultsAt T1, SPD was associated with age, race/ethnicity, and household income. SPD at T1 predicted disruption of employment (OR 4.5, 95% CI 1.4–3.8) and health care (OR 3.2, 95% CI 1.4–7.1) at T2. SPD at T1 (OR 10.2, 95% CI 4.5–23.3), low household income at T1 (OR 2.6, 95% CI 1.1–6.4), disruption of employment at T2 (OR 3.2, 95% CI 1.4–7.6), and disruption of healthcare at T2 (OR 3.3, 95% CI 1.5–7.2) were all significantly associated with elevated risk for SPD at T3.ConclusionsElevated risk for SPD during the COVID-19 pandemic is related to multiple psychological and social pathways that are likely to interact over the life course. Policies and interventions that target individuals with pre-existing mental health conditions as well as those experiencing persistent unemployment should be high priorities in the mental health response to the pandemic.

BackgroundAdverse childhood experiences (ACEs) are associated with multimorbidity in adulthood. This link may be mediated by psychosocial and biological factors, but evidence is lacking. The current study evaluates this mediation model.MethodWe analyzed data from the Canadian Longitudinal Study of Aging (N = 27 170 community participants). Participants were 45–85 years at recruitment, when allostatic load and social engagement data were collected, and 3 years older at follow-up, when ACEs and multimorbidity data were collected. Structural equation modeling was used to test for mediation in the overall sample, and in sex- and age-stratified subsamples, all analyses adjusted for concurrent lifestyle confounds.ResultsIn the overall sample, ACEs were associated with multimorbidity, directly, β = 0.12 (95% confidence interval 0.11–0.13) and indirectly. Regarding indirect associations, ACEs were related to social engagement, β = −0.14 (−0.16 to −0.12) and social engagement was related to multimorbidity, β = −0.10 (−0.12 to −0.08). ACEs were related to allostatic load, β = 0.04 (0.03–0.05) and allostatic load was related to multimorbidity, β = 0.16 (0.15–0.17). The model was significant for males and females and across age cohorts, with qualifications in the oldest stratum (age 75–85).ConclusionsACEs are related to multimorbidity, directly and via social engagement and allostatic load. This is the first study to show mediated pathways between early adversity and multimorbidity in adulthood. It provides a platform for understanding multimorbidity as a lifespan dynamic informing the co-occurrence of the varied disease processes represented in multimorbidity.

BackgroundAdverse childhood experiences (ACEs) and genetic liability are important risk factors for depression and inflammation. However, little is known about the gene−environment (G × E) mechanisms underlying their aetiology. For the first time, we tested the independent and interactive associations of ACEs and polygenic scores of major depressive disorder (MDD-PGS) and C-reactive protein (CRP-PGS) with longitudinal trajectories of depression and chronic inflammation in older adults.MethodsData were drawn from the English longitudinal study of ageing (N~3400). Retrospective information on ACEs was collected in wave3 (2006/07). We calculated a cumulative risk score of ACEs and also assessed distinct dimensions separately. Depressive symptoms were ascertained on eight occasions, from wave1 (2002/03) to wave8 (2016/17). CRP was measured in wave2 (2004/05), wave4 (2008/09), and wave6 (2012/13). The associations of the risk factors with group-based depressive-symptom trajectories and repeated exposure to high CRP (i.e. ⩾3 mg/L) were tested using multinomial and ordinal logistic regression.ResultsAll types of ACEs were independently associated with high depressive-symptom trajectories (OR 1.44, 95% CI 1.30–1.60) and inflammation (OR 1.08, 95% CI 1.07–1.09). The risk of high depressive-symptom trajectories (OR 1.47, 95% CI 1.28–1.70) and inflammation (OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.01–1.04) was also higher for participants with higher MDD-PGS. G×E analyses revealed that the associations between ACEs and depressive symptoms were larger among participants with higher MDD-PGS (OR 1.13, 95% CI 1.04–1.23). ACEs were also more strongly related to inflammation in participants with higher CRP-PGS (OR 1.02, 95% CI 1.01–1.03).ConclusionsACEs and polygenic susceptibility were independently and interactively associated with elevated depressive symptoms and chronic inflammation, highlighting the clinical importance of assessing both ACEs and genetic risk factors to design more targeted interventions.

BackgroundAutistic people show diverse trajectories of autistic traits over time, a phenomenon labelled ‘chronogeneity’. For example, some show a decrease in symptoms, whilst others experience an intensification of difficulties. Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a dimensional condition, representing one end of a trait continuum that extends throughout the population. To date, no studies have investigated chronogeneity across the full range of autistic traits. We investigated the nature and clinical significance of autism trait chronogeneity in a large, general population sample.MethodsAutistic social/communication traits (ASTs) were measured in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children using the Social and Communication Disorders Checklist (SCDC) at ages 7, 10, 13 and 16 (N = 9744). We used Growth Mixture Modelling (GMM) to identify groups defined by their AST trajectories. Measures of ASD diagnosis, sex, IQ and mental health (internalising and externalising) were used to investigate external validity of the derived trajectory groups.ResultsThe selected GMM model identified four AST trajectory groups: (i) Persistent High (2.3% of sample), (ii) Persistent Low (83.5%), (iii) Increasing (7.3%) and (iv) Decreasing (6.9%) trajectories. The Increasing group, in which females were a slight majority (53.2%), showed dramatic increases in SCDC scores during adolescence, accompanied by escalating internalising and externalising difficulties. Two-thirds (63.6%) of the Decreasing group were male.ConclusionsClinicians should note that for some young people autism-trait-like social difficulties first emerge during adolescence accompanied by problems with mood, anxiety, conduct and attention. A converse, majority-male group shows decreasing social difficulties during adolescence.

BackgroundThe effective implementation of government policies and measures for controlling the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic requires compliance from the public. This study aimed to examine cross-sectional and longitudinal associations of trust in government regarding COVID-19 control with the adoption of recommended health behaviours and prosocial behaviours, and potential determinants of trust in government during the pandemic.MethodsThis study analysed data from the PsyCorona Survey, an international project on COVID-19 that included 23 733 participants from 23 countries (representative in age and gender distributions by country) at baseline survey and 7785 participants who also completed follow-up surveys. Specification curve analysis was used to examine concurrent associations between trust in government and self-reported behaviours. We further used structural equation model to explore potential determinants of trust in government. Multilevel linear regressions were used to examine associations between baseline trust and longitudinal behavioural changes.ResultsHigher trust in government regarding COVID-19 control was significantly associated with higher adoption of health behaviours (handwashing, avoiding crowded space, self-quarantine) and prosocial behaviours in specification curve analyses (median standardised β = 0.173 and 0.229, p < 0.001). Government perceived as well organised, disseminating clear messages and knowledge on COVID-19, and perceived fairness were positively associated with trust in government (standardised β = 0.358, 0.230, 0.056, and 0.249, p < 0.01). Higher trust at baseline survey was significantly associated with lower rate of decline in health behaviours over time (p for interaction = 0.001).ConclusionsThese results highlighted the importance of trust in government in the control of COVID-19.

Background There is mixed evidence on increasing rates of psychiatric disorders and symptoms during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in 2020. We evaluated pandemic-related psychopathology and psychiatry diagnoses and their determinants in the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Health (ELSA-Brasil) São Paulo Research Center. Methods Between pre-pandemic ELSA-Brasil assessments in 2008–2010 (wave-1), 2012–2014 (wave-2), 2016–2018 (wave-3) and three pandemic assessments in 2020 (COVID-19 waves in May–July, July–September, and October–December), rates of common psychiatric symptoms, and depressive, anxiety, and common mental disorders (CMDs) were compared using the Clinical Interview Scheduled-Revised (CIS-R) and the Depression Anxiety Stress Scale-21 (DASS-21). Multivariable generalized linear models, adjusted by age, gender, educational level, and ethnicity identified variables associated with an elevated risk for mental disorders. Results In 2117 participants (mean age 62.3 years, 58.2% females), rates of CMDs and depressive disorders did not significantly change over time, oscillating from 23.5% to 21.1%, and 3.3% to 2.8%, respectively; whereas rate of anxiety disorders significantly decreased (2008–2010: 13.8%; 2016–2018: 9.8%; 2020: 8%). There was a decrease along three wave-COVID assessments for depression [β = −0.37, 99.5% confidence interval (CI) −0.50 to −0.23], anxiety (β = −0.37, 99.5% CI −0.48 to −0.26), and stress (β = −0.48, 99.5% CI −0.64 to −0.33) symptoms (all ps < 0.001). Younger age, female sex, lower educational level, non-white ethnicity, and previous psychiatric disorders were associated with increased odds for psychiatric disorders, whereas self-evaluated good health and good quality of relationships with decreased risk. Conclusion No consistent evidence of pandemic-related worsening psychopathology in our cohort was found. Indeed, psychiatric symptoms slightly decreased along 2020. Risk factors representing socioeconomic disadvantages were associated with increased odds of psychiatric disorders.

BackgroundTraumatic experiences are associated with a higher risk of psychotic illnesses, but little is known about potentially modifiable mechanisms underlying this relationship. This study aims to examine whether post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms mediate the relationship between trauma and psychotic experiences (PEs).MethodsWe used data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children to examine whether: PTSD symptoms mediate the relationships between (a) childhood trauma and adolescent PEs (study of adolescent PEs; n = 2952), and (b) childhood/adolescent trauma and PEs in early adulthood (study of adult PEs; n = 2492). We examined associations between variables using logistic regression, and mediation using the parametric g-computation formula.ResultsExposure to trauma was associated with increased odds of PEs (adolescent PEs: ORadjusted 1.48, 95% CI 1.23–1.78; adult PEs: ORadjusted 1.57, 95% CI 1.25–1.98) and PTSD symptoms (adolescent PTSD: ORadjusted 1.59, 95% CI 1.31–1.93; adult PTSD: ORadjusted 1.50, 95% CI 1.36–1.65). The association between PTSD symptoms and PE was stronger in adolescence (ORadjusted 4.63, 95% CI 2.34–9.17) than in adulthood (ORadjusted 1.62, 95% CI 0.80–3.25). There was some evidence that PTSD symptoms mediated the relationship between childhood trauma and adolescent PEs (proportion mediated 14%), though evidence of mediation was weaker for adult PEs (proportion mediated 8%).ConclusionsThese findings are consistent with the hypothesis that PTSD symptoms partly mediate the association between trauma exposure and PEs. Targeting PTSD symptoms might help prevent the onset of psychotic outcomes.

BackgroundSuicide rates are high in borderline personality disorder (BPD) where interpersonal problems trigger intense affective dysregulation and impulses to act on suicidal thoughts. To date, however, no study has examined how interpersonal stressors contribute to momentary within-person links among affect and impulsivity with suicidal ideation (SI), and how those links vary over time in people's daily lives.MethodsA total of 153 individuals diagnosed with BPD and 52 healthy controls completed a 21-day ecological momentary assessment protocol. Of these 153 individuals with BPD, 105 had a history of suicide attempts. Multilevel structural equation modeling was used to examine dynamic links among interpersonal perceptions, affect, state impulsivity, and suicidal intent.ResultsAggregated across interactions, lower perceived warmth in others was associated with SI. This direct relationship, however, did not extend to momentary within-person associations. Instead, interpersonal conflicts were linked to SI indirectly via greater negative affect and lower positive affect. While a robust within-person link between interpersonal perceptions and impulsivity emerged, impulsivity did not account for the relationship between interpersonal perceptions and SI.ConclusionThis intensive longitudinal study illustrates momentary interpersonal signatures of an emerging suicidal crisis. Among people with BPD at high risk for suicide, interpersonal triggers initiate a cascade of affective dysregulation, which in turn gives rise to SI.

BackgroundChildhood infections are associated with adult psychosis and depression, but studies of psychotic experiences (PEs) and depressive symptoms in childhood, adolescence, and early-adulthood are scarce. Previous studies have typically examined severe infections, but studies of common infections are also scarce.MethodsUsing data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) birth cohort, we examined associations of the number of infections in childhood from age 1.5 to 7.5 years with depressive symptom scores at age 10, 13, 14, 17, 18, and 19 years, and with PEs at 12 and 18 years. We performed additional analysis using infection burden (‘low’ = 0–4 infections, ‘medium’ = 5–6, ‘high’ = 7–9, or ‘very high’ = 10–22 infections) as the exposure.ResultsThe risk set comprised 11 786 individuals with childhood infection data. Number of childhood infections was associated with depressive symptoms from age 10 (adjusted beta = 0.14; standard error (s.e.) = 0.04; p = s.e. = 0.08; p = 0.04), and with PEs at age 12 (suspected/definite PEs: adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 1.18; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.09–1.27). These effect sizes were larger when the exposure was defined as very high infection burden (depressive symptoms age 17: adjusted beta = 0.79; s.e. = 0.29; p = 0.01; suspected/definite PEs at age 12: adjusted OR = 1.60; 95% CI = 1.25–2.05). Childhood infections were not associated with depressive/psychotic outcomes at age 18 or 19.ConclusionsCommon early-childhood infections are associated with depressive symptoms up to mid-adolescence and with PEs subsequently in childhood, but not with these outcomes in early-adulthood. These findings require replication including larger samples with outcomes in adulthood.

BackgroundPersonality disorders are prevalent in 6–10% of the population, but their risk for cause-specific mortality is unclear. The aim of the study was to assess the association between personality disorders diagnosed in late adolescence and all-cause as well as cause-specific (cardiovascular-related, external-related) mortality.MethodsWe performed a longitudinal study on a historical prospective cohort based on nationwide screening prior to recruitment to the Israeli army. The study participants were 16–19-year-old persons who attended the army screening (medical and cognitive, including screening for psychiatric disorders) between 1967 and 2006. Participants were followed from 1967 till 2011.ResultsThe study included 2 051 606 subjects, of whom 1 229 252 (59.9%) were men and 822 354 (40.1%) were women, mean age 17.36 years. There were 55 508 (4.5%) men and 8237 (1.0%) women diagnosed with personality disorders. The adjusted hazard ratio (HRs) for coronary, stroke, cardiovascular, external-related causes and all-cause mortality among men with personality disorders were 1.34 (1.03–1.74), 1.82 (1.20–2.76), 1.45 (1.23–1.71), 1.41 (1.30–1.53) and 1.44 (1.36–1.51), respectively. The absolute rate difference for all-cause mortality was 56.07 and 13.19 per 105 person-years among men and women, respectively. Among women with personality disorders, the adjusted HRs for external-related causes and all-cause mortality were 2.74 (1.87–4.00) and 2.01 (1.56–2.58). Associations were already evident within 10 years of follow-up.ConclusionsPersonality disorder in late adolescence is associated with increased risk of cardiovascular, external- and all-cause mortality. Increased cardiovascular mortality is evident before the age of 40 years and may point to the importance of lifestyle education already in youth.

BackgroundIndividuals diagnosed with borderline personality disorder (BPD) often describe their lives as stressful and unpredictable. However, it is unclear whether the adversity faced by those with BPD is a product of stress reactivity or stress generation. Here, we examined the dynamic, prospective associations between BPD and stressful life events over 3 years. Given the heterogeneity present in BPD, we sought to understand which empirically derived dimensions of this heterogeneous disorder explain stress reactivity v. stress generation.MethodsParticipants included 355 individuals diagnosed with BPD and followed longitudinally at three annual assessments. Auto-regressive cross-lagged panel models were used to examine prospective associations between stressful life events and three latent dimensions implicated in BPD: negative affect, disinhibition, and antagonism.ResultsAntagonism and disinhibition, but not negative affect, prospectively predicted dependent stressful life events (events the individual may have some role in). Evidence for decompensation under stress was more tenuous, with independent stressful life events (those presumably outside the individual's control) predicting increases in negative affect.ConclusionsOur longitudinal study of a well-characterized clinical sample found more evidence for stress generation than for stress-induced decompensation in BPD. Stress generation in BPD is driven by externalizing dimensions: antagonism and disinhibition. These results highlight the utility of empirically derived dimensions for parsing heterogeneity present in BPD, leading to improvements in diagnostic evaluation, clinical prediction, and individualized approaches to treatment planning.

BackgroundImproving functioning in patients with bipolar disorder (BD) is one of the main objectives in clinical practice. Of the few psychosocial interventions that have been specifically developed to enhance the psychosocial outcome in BD, functional remediation (FR) is one which has demonstrated efficacy. The aim of this study was to examine which variables could predict improved functional outcome following the FR intervention in a sample of euthymic or subsyndromal patients with BD.MethodsA total of 92 euthymic outpatients were included in this longitudinal study, with 62 completers. Partial correlations controlling for the functional outcome at baseline were calculated between demographic, clinical and neurocognitive variables, and functional outcome at endpoint was assessed by means of the Functioning Assessment Short Test scale. Next, a multiple regression analysis was run in order to identify potential predictors of functional outcome at 2-year follow-up, using the variables found to be statistically significant in the correlation analysis and other variables related to functioning as identified in the previous scientific literature.ResultsThe regression model revealed that only two independent variables significantly contributed to the model (F(6,53): 4.003; p = 0.002), namely verbal memory and inhibitory control. The model accounted for 31.2% of the variance. No other demographic or clinical variable contributed to the model.ConclusionsResults suggest that patients with better cognitive performance at baseline, especially in terms of verbal memory and executive functions, may present better functional outcomes at long term follow-up after receiving functional remediation.

BackgroundIt is not clear to what extent associations between schizophrenia, cannabis use and cigarette use are due to a shared genetic etiology. We, therefore, examined whether schizophrenia genetic risk associates with longitudinal patterns of cigarette and cannabis use in adolescence and mediating pathways for any association to inform potential reduction strategies.MethodsAssociations between schizophrenia polygenic scores and longitudinal latent classes of cigarette and cannabis use from ages 14 to 19 years were investigated in up to 3925 individuals in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children. Mediation models were estimated to assess the potential mediating effects of a range of cognitive, emotional, and behavioral phenotypes.ResultsThe schizophrenia polygenic score, based on single nucleotide polymorphisms meeting a training-set p threshold of 0.05, was associated with late-onset cannabis use (OR = 1.23; 95% CI = 1.08,1.41), but not with cigarette or early-onset cannabis use classes. This association was not mediated through lower IQ, victimization, emotional difficulties, antisocial behavior, impulsivity, or poorer social relationships during childhood. Sensitivity analyses adjusting for genetic liability to cannabis or cigarette use, using polygenic scores excluding the CHRNA5-A3-B4 gene cluster, or basing scores on a 0.5 training-set p threshold, provided results consistent with our main analyses.ConclusionsOur study provides evidence that genetic risk for schizophrenia is associated with patterns of cannabis use during adolescence. Investigation of pathways other than the cognitive, emotional, and behavioral phenotypes examined here is required to identify modifiable targets to reduce the public health burden of cannabis use in the population.

BackgroundDepression is highly prevalent and marked by a chronic and recurrent course. Despite being a major cause of disability worldwide, little is known regarding the determinants of its heterogeneous course. Machine learning techniques present an opportunity to develop tools to predict diagnosis and prognosis at an individual level.MethodsWe examined baseline (2008–2010) and follow-up (2012–2014) data of the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil), a large occupational cohort study. We implemented an elastic net regularization analysis with a 10-fold cross-validation procedure using socioeconomic and clinical factors as predictors to distinguish at follow-up: (1) depressed from non-depressed participants, (2) participants with incident depression from those who did not develop depression, and (3) participants with chronic (persistent or recurrent) depression from those without depression.ResultsWe assessed 15 105 and 13 922 participants at waves 1 and 2, respectively. The elastic net regularization model distinguished outcome levels in the test dataset with an area under the curve of 0.79 (95% CI 0.76–0.82), 0.71 (95% CI 0.66–0.77), 0.90 (95% CI 0.86–0.95) for analyses 1, 2, and 3, respectively.ConclusionsDiagnosis and prognosis related to depression can be predicted at an individual subject level by integrating low-cost variables, such as demographic and clinical data. Future studies should assess longer follow-up periods and combine biological predictors, such as genetics and blood biomarkers, to build more accurate tools to predict depression course.

BackgroundMild cognitive impairment (MCI), as a stage in the cognitive continuum between normal ageing and dementia, is mainly characterized by memory impairment. The aims of this study were to examine CANTAB measures of temporal changes of visual memory in MCI and to evaluate the usefulness of the baseline scores for predicting changes in cognitive status.MethodsThe study included 201 participants aged over 50 years with subjective cognitive complaints. Visual memory was assessed with four CANTAB tests [paired associates learning (PAL), delayed matching to sample (DMS), pattern recognition memory (PRM) and spatial span (SSP)] administered at baseline and on two further occasions, with a follow-up interval of 18–24 months. Participants were divided into three groups according to the change in their cognitive status: participants with subjective cognitive complaints who remained stable, MCI participants who remained stable (MCI-Stable) and MCI participants whose cognitive deterioration continued (MCI-Worsened). Linear mixed models were used to model longitudinal changes, with evaluation time as a fixed variable, and multinomial regression models were used to predict changes in cognitive status.ResultsIsolated significant effects were obtained for age and group with all CANTAB tests used. Interactions between evaluation time and group were identified in the PAL and DMS tests, indicating different temporal patterns depending on the changes in cognitive status. Regression models also indicated that CANTAB scores were good predictors of changes in cognitive status.ConclusionsDecline in visual memory measured by PAL and DMS tests can successfully distinguish different types of MCI, and considered together PAL, DMS, PRM and SSP can predict changes in cognitive status.

BackgroundSuicide is a leading cause of mortality in youth, yet the course of suicide attempts is poorly documented. We explored the vulnerable transition from adolescence to emerging adulthood to identify group trajectories and risk factors.MethodsThe National Longitudinal Survey of Children and Youth is a prospective representative cohort of Canadian children. We followed participants aged 7–11 years in 1994–95 to age 23 (2008–09). We modelled self-reported past-year suicide attempts (ages 12 to 23 years) using growth mixture models. We analysed risk factors from self- and parent-report questionnaires at pre-adolescence (ages 10–11) and early adolescence (ages 12–13) using multinomial logistic regressions. Analyses were adjusted for sample non-response and attrition.ResultsIn 2233 participants answering questions on teen and adult suicide attempts, we identified three trajectories: never attempted (96.0%), adolescence-limited (2.0%) and persisting into adulthood (2.0%). Adolescent girls aged 12–13 with depression/anxiety symptoms, and with mothers experiencing depression had higher risks of adolescence-limited than never-attempted [relative risk RR 9.27 (95% confidence interval: 1.73–49.82); 2.03 (1.02–3.32), for each standard deviation increase; 1.07 (1.00–1.15); respectively]. Preteen ADHD symptoms increased the risk of attempts persisting into adulthood as compared to never-attempted [RR 2.05 (1.29–3.28) for each standard deviation increase]. Suicide death of schoolmate/acquaintance increased risks of an adulthood trajectory as compared to never-attempted and adolescence-limited [RR 8.41 (3.04–23.27) and 6.63 (1.29–34.06), respectively].ConclusionIn half the participants attempting suicide, attempts continued into adulthood. We stress the need for preventive strategies in early adolescence and differential clinical/educational interventions as identified for each trajectory.

BackgroundAttention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is associated with later depression and there is considerable genetic overlap between them. This study investigated if ADHD and ADHD genetic liability are causally related to depression using two different methods.MethodsFirst, a longitudinal population cohort design was used to assess the association between childhood ADHD (age 7 years) and recurrent depression in young-adulthood (age 18–25 years) in N = 8310 individuals in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC). Second, two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses examined relationships between genetic liability for ADHD and depression utilising published Genome-Wide Association Study (GWAS) data.ResultsChildhood ADHD was associated with an increased risk of recurrent depression in young-adulthood (OR 1.35, 95% CI 1.05–1.73). MR analyses suggested a causal effect of ADHD genetic liability on major depression (OR 1.21, 95% CI 1.12–1.31). MR findings using a broader definition of depression differed, showing a weak influence on depression (OR 1.07, 95% CI 1.02–1.13).ConclusionsOur findings suggest that ADHD increases the risk of depression later in life and are consistent with a causal effect of ADHD genetic liability on subsequent major depression. However, findings were different for more broadly defined depression.

BackgroundChange in the experience of oneself may lay the groundwork for the development of additional hallucinations and delusions in individuals with schizophrenia. However, to date, the course and symptom and functioning correlates of passivity symptoms (cf. thought insertion, thought withdrawal) have not been measured consistently over long periods of time. Information on the course and correlates of passivity symptoms is essential for developing models of their contribution to schizophrenic illness.MethodEighty-two individuals diagnosed with schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder were recruited at an index hospitalization and reassessed at three or more follow-ups over the following 18 years.ResultsThe results indicate that a small group of participants report passivity symptoms at all follow-ups, many reported passivity symptoms at some follow-ups, and the majority of individuals never reported passivity symptoms. The prevalence of passivity symptoms was similar to that for delusions of reference and persecutory delusions. Notably, when individuals did experience passivity symptoms, they also had a greater number of additional psychotic symptoms than individuals without passivity symptoms. Further, the presence of passivity symptoms was associated with work impairment at some assessments.ConclusionsPassivity symptoms present episodically, at a similar rate as delusions of reference and persecutory delusions, and when present, they are associated with having a higher number of additional psychotic symptoms, as well as having some impact on work functioning. These results suggest that passivity symptoms may increase vulnerability to additional psychotic symptoms and greater work impairment.

BackgroundThis study investigates the extent to which the GHQ-12 exhibits configural, metric and scalar invariance across six ethnic groups in Britain and Northern Ireland, using the UK Household Longitudinal Study (N = 35 410).MethodsA confirmatory factor analysis was carried out on a white British group in order to establish an adequate measurement model. Secondly, a multi-group confirmatory factor analysis was conducted in order to assess measurement invariance. A sensitivity analysis comparing summated and latent means across groups was carried out. Finally, revised estimates of scale reliability were derived using two different methods.ResultsA one-factor model including correlated error terms on the negatively phrased items showed superior fit in all ethnic groups. Tests for equal factor loadings and intercepts also showed adequate fit demonstrating metric and scalar invariance. Latent and summated scale estimates of mean group differences were similar for all groups. Scale reliability using McDonald's ω is lower than when using the more conventional Cronbach's α. Reliability across groups is reasonably consistent.ConclusionsWe find that the GHQ-12 does not display obvious bias in regard to ethnic groups in the UK and that valid comparisons across these groups can be made for the purposes of population research. Caution is needed when using as a screening tool for individuals.

BackgroundSelf-efficacy is a pivotal factor in the etiology and prognosis of major depression. However, longitudinal studies on the relationship between self-efficacy and major depressive disorder (MDD) are scarce. The objectives were to investigate: (1) the associations between self-efficacy and the 1-year and 2-year risks of first onset of MDD and (2) the associations between self-efficacy and the 1-year and 2-year risks of the persistence/recurrence of MDD, in a sample of first-year university students.MethodsWe followed 8079 first-year university students for 2 years from April 2018 to October 2020. MDD was ascertained by the Chinese version of the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI-3.0) based on self-report. Self-efficacy was measured by the 10-item General Self-efficacy (GSE) scale. Random effect logistic regression modeling was used to estimate the associations.ResultsAmong participants without a lifetime MDD, the data showed that participants with high baseline GSE scores were associated with a higher risk of first onset of MDD over 2 years [odds ratio (OR) 1.04, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01–1.08]. Among those with a lifetime MDD, participants with high baseline GSE scores were less likely to have had a MDD over 2 years (OR 0.93, 95% CI 0.88–0.99) compared to others.ConclusionsA high level of GSE may be protective of the risk of persistent or recurrent MDD. More longitudinal studies in university students are needed to further investigate the impact of GSE on the first onset of MDD.

BackgroundWhile childhood externalizing, internalizing and comorbid problems have been associated with suicidal risk, little is known about their specific associations with suicidal ideation and attempts. We examined associations between childhood externalizing, internalizing and comorbid problems and suicidal ideation (without attempts) and attempts by early adulthood, in males and females.MethodParticipants were from the Quebec Longitudinal Study of Kindergarten Children, a population-based study of kindergarteners in Quebec from 1986 to 1988 and followed-up until 2005. We captured the co-development of teacher-rated externalizing and internalizing problems at age 6–12 using multitrajectories. Using the Diagnostic Interview Schedule administered at age 15 and 22, we identified individuals (1) who never experienced suicidal ideation/attempts, (2) experienced suicidal ideation but never attempted suicide and (3) attempted suicide.ResultsThe identified profiles were no/low problems (45%), externalizing (29%), internalizing (11%) and comorbid problems (13%). After adjusting for socioeconomic and familial characteristics, children with externalizing (OR 2.00, CI 1.39–2.88), internalizing (OR 2.34, CI 1.51–3.64) and comorbid (OR 3.29, CI 2.05–5.29) problems were at higher risk of attempting suicide (v. non-suicidal) by age 22 than those with low/no problems. Females with comorbid problems were at higher risk of attempting suicide than females with one problem. Childhood problems were not associated with suicidal ideation. Externalizing (OR 2.01, CI 1.29–3.12) and comorbid problems (OR 2.28, CI 1.29–4.03) distinguished individuals who attempted suicide from those who thought about suicide without attempting.ConclusionChildhood externalizing problems alone or combined with internalizing problems were associated with suicide attempts, but not ideation (without attempts), suggesting that these problems confer a specific risk for suicide attempts.

BackgroundUnpaid carers who look after another member of their household (home-carers) have poorer mental health than the general population. The first COVID-19 national lockdown led to an increasing reliance on home-carers and we investigate the short and longer-term impact of lockdown on their mental health.MethodsData from 9,737 adult participants (aged 16+) from the UK Household Longitudinal Study (Understanding Society) were used to explore changes in 12-item General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12) score between (a) pre-pandemic (2019) and early lockdown (April 2020) and (b) early and later (July 2020) lockdown.ResultsGHQ-12 scores among home-carers were higher pre-lockdown and increased more than for non-carers from 2019 to April 2020 with further increases for home-carers compared with non-carers between April and July. Compared with respondents caring for a spouse/partner, those caring for a child under 18 had a particularly marked increase in GHQ-12 score between 2019 and April, as did those caring for someone with learning difficulties. Home-carers of children under 18 improved from April to July while those caring for adult children saw a marked worsening of their mental health. Home-carers with greater care burden saw larger increases in GHQ-12 score from 2019 to April and from April to July, and increases through both periods were greater for home-carers who had formal help prior to lockdown but then lost it.ConclusionsThe mental health of home-carers deteriorated more during lockdown than non-carers. Policies that reinstate support for them and their care-recipients will benefit the health of both vulnerable groups.What is already known on this topicCarers have poorer mental health than the general population.Among carers who live with the care recipient (home-carers), some subgroups have poorer mental health than others: female versus male; those who provide more hours of care and have been caring for longer; spousal carers compared with those caring for children (including adult), parents, or other relationships; those caring for individuals whose impairment results in behavioural disturbances, than those who care for individuals with physical or long-term health conditions.What this study addsIn a large representative UK survey, the decline in mental health during lockdown was greater among home-carers than for the general population, and stayed poorer through to July, even as the general population’s mental health recovered slightly.Compared with respondents who were caring for a spouse/partner, those caring for a child under 18 had a particularly marked increase in GHQ-12 score between 2019 and April while those caring for an adult child experienced a substantial decline in their mental health between the beginning and end of the first lockdown (April to July).The increase in GHQ-12 in April from 2019 was highest among those caring for someone with a learning disability and lowest for those caring for someone with a problem related to old age.Home-carers who had a greater care burden, in terms of hours of care provided, or lost formal support during lockdown, had poorer mental health.

BackgroundPoor cognitive abilities and low intellectual quotient (IQ) are associated with an increased risk of suicide attempts and suicide mortality. However, knowledge of how this association develops across the life-course is limited. Our study aims to establish whether individuals who died by suicide by mid-adulthood are distinguishable by their child-to-adolescence cognitive trajectories.MethodsParticipants were from the 1958 British Birth Cohort and were assessed for academic performance at ages 7, 11, and 16 and intelligence at 11 years. Suicides occurring by September 2012 were identified from linked national death certificates. We compared mean mathematics and reading abilities and rate of change across 7–16 years for individuals who died by suicide v. those still alive, with and without adjustment for potential early-life confounding factors. Analyses were based on 14 505 participants.ResultsFifty-five participants (48 males) had died by suicide by age 54 years. While males who died by suicide did not differ from participants still alive in reading scores at age 7 [effect size (g) = −0.04, p = 0.759], their reading scores had a less steep improvement up to age 16 compared to other participants. Adjustments for early-life confounding factors explained these differences. A similar pattern was observed for mathematics scores. There was no difference between individuals who died by suicide v. participants still alive on intelligence at 11 years.ConclusionsWhile no differences in tests of academic performance and IQ were observed, individuals who died by suicide had a less steep improvement in reading abilities over time compared to same-age peers.

BackgroundIdentifying risk factors of individuals in a clinical-high-risk state for psychosis are vital to prevention and early intervention efforts. Among prodromal abnormalities, cognitive functioning has shown intermediate levels of impairment in CHR relative to first-episode psychosis and healthy controls, highlighting a potential role as a risk factor for transition to psychosis and other negative clinical outcomes. The current study used the AX-CPT, a brief 15-min computerized task, to determine whether cognitive control impairments in CHR at baseline could predict clinical status at 12-month follow-up.MethodsBaseline AX-CPT data were obtained from 117 CHR individuals participating in two studies, the Early Detection, Intervention, and Prevention of Psychosis Program (EDIPPP) and the Understanding Early Psychosis Programs (EP) and used to predict clinical status at 12-month follow-up. At 12 months, 19 individuals converted to a first episode of psychosis (CHR-C), 52 remitted (CHR-R), and 46 had persistent sub-threshold symptoms (CHR-P). Binary logistic regression and multinomial logistic regression were used to test prediction models.ResultsBaseline AX-CPT performance (d-prime context) was less impaired in CHR-R compared to CHR-P and CHR-C patient groups. AX-CPT predictive validity was robust (0.723) for discriminating converters v. non-converters, and even greater (0.771) when predicting CHR three subgroups.ConclusionsThese longitudinal outcome data indicate that cognitive control deficits as measured by AX-CPT d-prime context are a strong predictor of clinical outcome in CHR individuals. The AX-CPT is brief, easily implemented and cost-effective measure that may be valuable for large-scale prediction efforts.

BackgroundPrevious studies of pubertal timing and self-harm are limited by subjective measures of pubertal timing or by the conflation of self-harm with suicide attempts and ideation. The current study investigates the association between an objective measure of pubertal timing – age at menarche – and self-harm with and without suicidal intent in adolescence and adulthood in females.MethodBirth cohort study based on 4042 females from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC). Age at menarche was assessed prospectively between ages 8 and 17 years. Lifetime history of self-harm was self-reported at ages 16 and 21 years. Associations between age at menarche and self-harm, both with and without suicidal intent, were examined using multivariable logistic regression.ResultsLater age at menarche was associated with a lower risk of lifetime self-harm at age 16 years (OR per-year increase in age at menarche 0.87; 95% CI 0.80–0.95). Compared with normative timing, early menarche (13.8 years) with a reduced risk (OR 0.74, 95% CI 0.58–0.93). The pattern of association was similar at age 21 years (OR per-year increase in age at menarche 0.92, 95% CI 0.85–1.00). There was no strong evidence for a difference in associations with suicidal v. non-suicidal self-harm.ConclusionsRisk of self-harm is higher in females with early menarche onset. Future research is needed to establish whether this association is causal and to identify potential mechanisms.

BackgroundPrevious research has shown an association between subjective wellbeing and incident diabetes. Less is known about the role of wellbeing for subclinical disease trajectories as captured via glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c). We aimed to explore the association between subjective wellbeing and future HbA1c levels, and the role of sociodemographic, behavioral and clinical factors in this association.MethodsWe used data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing for this study (N = 2161). Subjective wellbeing (CASP-19) was measured at wave 2 and HbA1c was measured 8 years later at wave 6. Participants were free from diabetes at baseline. We conducted a series of analyses to examine the extent to which the association was accounted for by a range of sociodemographic, behavioral and clinical factors in linear regression models.ResultsModels showed that subjective wellbeing (CASP-19 total score) was inversely associated with HbA1c 8 years later after controlling for depressive symptoms, age, sex, and baseline HbA1c (B = −0.035, 95% CI −0.060 to –0.011, p = 0.005). Inclusion of sociodemographic variables and behavioral factors in models accounted for a large proportion (17.0% and 24.5%, respectively) of the relationship between wellbeing and later HbA1c; clinical risk factors explained a smaller proportion of the relationship (3.4%).ConclusionsPoorer subjective wellbeing is associated with greater HbA1c over 8 years of follow-up and this relationship can in part be explained by sociodemographic, behavioral and clinical factors among older adults.

BackgroundChildren reared in institutions experience profound deprivation that is associated with both heightened levels of psychopathology and deficits in executive functioning (EF). It is unclear whether deficits in EF among institutionally-reared children serve as a vulnerability factor that increases risk for later psychopathology. It is also unclear whether this putative association between EF and psychopathology is transdiagnostic (i.e. cuts across domains of psychopathology), or specific to a given syndrome. Thus, we examined whether global deficits in EF mediate the association between severe childhood neglect and general v. specific psychopathology in adolescence.MethodsThe sample consisted of 188 children from the Bucharest Early Intervention Project, a longitudinal study examining the brain and behavioral development of children reared in Romanian institutions and a comparison group of never-institutionalized children. EF was assessed at age 8, 12, and 16 using a well-validated measure of neuropsychological functioning. Psychopathology was measured as general (P) and specific internalizing (INT) and externalizing (EXT) factors at age 12 and 16.ResultsInstitutionally-reared children had lower global EF and higher general psychopathology (P) at all ages compared to never-institutionalized children. Longitudinal path analysis revealed that the effect of institutionalization on P at age 16 operated indirectly through poorer EF from ages 8 to 12. No indirect effects involving EF were observed for INT or EXT at age 16.ConclusionsWe conclude that stable, global deficits in EF serve as a cognitive endophenotype that increases transdiagnostic vulnerability to psychopathology in adolescence among those who have experienced profound early neglect.