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© 2019 Chen et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Background Widespread use of antibiotics has led to the development of antibiotic resistance. However, there are limited data describing antibiotic use in the community setting, and examining factors associated with greater use. Our study aimed to quantify antibiotic dispensing in older adults in the community according to socio-demographics and health services use. Methods Prospective analysis of a population-based cohort study of 239,981 adults aged 45 years in Australia (the Sax Institute’s 45 and Up Study). Data on socio-demographics and health from a questionnaire, were linked to 2015 antibiotic dispensing data from the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS), as well as other administrative health databases. We estimated the Defined Daily Dose (DDD) of systemic antibiotics dispensed, defined by an Anatomic Therapeutic Classification code beginning with J01, in 2015. We also conducted Poisson regression with robust standard errors to identify factors associated with antibiotic dispensing. Results Overall, 49.3% of 45 and Up Study participants had at least one systemic antibiotic dispensed in 2015 with a total of 392,856 prescriptions dispensed and an average of 36.5 DDDs/1000-persons/day in the study population. The quantity of antibiotics dispensed increased with increasing age (25.6 DDDs/1000/day in 15 general practitioner consultations in the last year (80.5 and 88.3 DDDs/1000/day, respectively). These factors remained strongly associated with greater antibiotic dispensing after adjusting for age, sex, education, income, area of residence and co-morbidities. Conclusions Residence in aged care facilities and high GP visits are associated with greater antibiotic dispensing. This study provides important evidence regarding high use groups for antimicrobial stewardship.

PURPOSE: Prospective surveillance of invasive mold diseases (IMDs) in haematology patients should be standard of care but is hampered by the absence of a reliable laboratory prompt and the difficulty of manual surveillance. We used a high throughput technology, natural language processing (NLP), to develop a classifier based on machine learning techniques to screen computed tomography (CT) reports supportive for IMDs. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We conducted a retrospective case-control study of CT reports from the clinical encounter and up to 12-weeks after, from a random subset of 79 of 270 case patients with 33 probable/proven IMDs by international definitions, and 68 of 257 uninfected-control patients identified from 3 tertiary haematology centres. The classifier was trained and tested on a reference standard of 449 physician annotated reports including a development subset (n = 366), from a total of 1880 reports, using 10-fold cross validation, comparing binary and probabilistic predictions to the reference standard to generate sensitivity, specificity and area under the receiver-operating-curve (ROC). RESULTS: For the development subset, sensitivity/specificity was 91% (95%CI 86% to 94%)/79% (95%CI 71% to 84%) and ROC area was 0.92 (95%CI 89% to 94%). Of 25 (5.6%) missed notifications, only 4 (0.9%) reports were regarded as clinically significant. CONCLUSION: CT reports are a readily available and timely resource that may be exploited by NLP to facilitate continuous prospective IMD surveillance with translational benefits beyond surveillance alone.

BACKGROUND: Indigenous children in Australia and Alaska have very high rates of chronic suppurative lung disease (CSLD)/bronchiectasis. Antibiotics, including frequent or long-term azithromycin in Australia and short-term beta-lactam therapy in both countries, are often prescribed to treat these patients. In the Bronchiectasis Observational Study we examined over several years the nasopharyngeal carriage and antibiotic resistance of respiratory bacteria in these two PCV7-vaccinated populations. METHODS: Indigenous children aged 0.5-8.9 years with CSLD/bronchiectasis from remote Australia (n = 79) and Alaska (n = 41) were enrolled in a prospective cohort study during 2004-8. At scheduled study visits until 2010 antibiotic use in the preceding 2-weeks was recorded and nasopharyngeal swabs collected for culture and antimicrobial susceptibility testing. Analysis of respiratory bacterial carriage and antibiotic resistance was by baseline and final swabs, and total swabs by year. RESULTS: Streptococcus pneumoniae carriage changed little over time. In contrast, carriage of Haemophilus influenzae declined and Staphylococcus aureus increased (from 0% in 2005-6 to 23% in 2010 in Alaskan children); these changes were associated with increasing age. Moraxella catarrhalis carriage declined significantly in Australian, but not Alaskan, children (from 64% in 2004-6 to 11% in 2010). While beta-lactam antibiotic use was similar in the two cohorts, Australian children received more azithromycin. Macrolide resistance was significantly higher in Australian compared to Alaskan children, while H. influenzae beta-lactam resistance was higher in Alaskan children. Azithromycin use coincided significantly with reduced carriage of S. pneumoniae, H. influenzae and M. catarrhalis, but increased carriage of S. aureus and macrolide-resistant strains of S. pneumoniae and S. aureus (proportion of carriers and all swabs), in a 'cumulative dose-response' relationship. CONCLUSIONS: Over time, similar (possibly age-related) changes in nasopharyngeal bacterial carriage were observed in Australian and Alaskan children with CSLD/bronchiectasis. However, there were also significant frequency-dependent differences in carriage and antibiotic resistance that coincided with azithromycin use.

Immunisation programs are designed to reduce serious morbidity and mortality from influenza, but most evidence supporting the effectiveness of this intervention has focused on disease in the community or in primary care settings. We aimed to examine the effectiveness of influenza vaccination against hospitalisation with confirmed influenza. We compared influenza vaccination status in patients hospitalised with PCR-confirmed influenza with patients hospitalised with influenza-negative respiratory infections in an Australian sentinel surveillance system. Vaccine effectiveness was estimated from the odds ratio of vaccination in cases and controls. We performed both simple multivariate regression and a stratified analysis based on propensity score of vaccination. Vaccination status was ascertained in 333 of 598 patients with confirmed influenza and 785 of 1384 test-negative patients. Overall estimated crude vaccine effectiveness was 57% (41%, 68%). After adjusting for age, chronic comorbidities and pregnancy status, the estimated vaccine effectiveness was 37% (95% CI: 12%, 55%). In an analysis accounting for a propensity score for vaccination, the estimated vaccine effectiveness was 48.3% (95% CI: 30.0, 61.8%). Influenza vaccination was moderately protective against hospitalisation with influenza in the 2010 and 2011 seasons.

Background: Aging is associated with immune dysfunction and the related development of conditions with an inflammatory pathogenesis. Some of these immune changes are also observed in HIV infection, but the interaction between immune changes with aging and HIV infection are unknown. Whilst sex differences in innate immunity are recognized, little research into innate immune aging has been performed on women. Methods: This cross-sectional study of HIV positive and negative women used whole blood flow cytometric analysis to characterize monocyte and CD8+ T cell subsets. Plasma markers of innate immune activation were measured using standard ELISA-based assays. Results: HIV positive women exhibited elevated plasma levels of the innate immune activation markers CXCL10 (p

BACKGROUND: Culture remains the diagnostic gold standard for many bacterial infections, and the method against which other tests are often evaluated. Specificity of culture is 100% if the pathogenic organism is not found in healthy subjects, but the sensitivity of culture is more difficult to determine and may be low. Here, we apply Bayesian latent class models (LCMs) to data from patients with a single Gram-negative bacterial infection and define the true sensitivity of culture together with the impact of misclassification by culture on the reported accuracy of alternative diagnostic tests. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Data from published studies describing the application of five diagnostic tests (culture and four serological tests) to a patient cohort with suspected melioidosis were re-analysed using several Bayesian LCMs. Sensitivities, specificities, and positive and negative predictive values (PPVs and NPVs) were calculated. Of 320 patients with suspected melioidosis, 119 (37%) had culture confirmed melioidosis. Using the final model (Bayesian LCM with conditional dependence between serological tests), the sensitivity of culture was estimated to be 60.2%. Prediction accuracy of the final model was assessed using a classification tool to grade patients according to the likelihood of melioidosis, which indicated that an estimated disease prevalence of 61.6% was credible. Estimates of sensitivities, specificities, PPVs and NPVs of four serological tests were significantly different from previously published values in which culture was used as the gold standard. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Culture has low sensitivity and low NPV for the diagnosis of melioidosis and is an imperfect gold standard against which to evaluate alternative tests. Models should be used to support the evaluation of diagnostic tests with an imperfect gold standard. It is likely that the poor sensitivity/specificity of culture is not specific for melioidosis, but rather a generic problem for many bacterial and fungal infections.

Objectives Counts of absolute CD4+ T lymphocytes (CD4+ T cells) are known to be highly variable in untreated HIV-infected individuals, but there are no data in virologically-suppressed individuals. We investigated CD4+ T cell variability in stable, virologically-suppressed, HIV-1 infected adults on combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). Methods From a large hospital database we selected patients with stable virological suppression on cART for >3 years with >10 CD4+ T cell measurements performed over a further >2 years; and a control group of 95 patients not on cART. Results We identified 161 HIV-infected patients on cART without active HCV or HBV infection, with stable virological suppression for a median of 6.4 years. Over the study period 88 patients had reached a plateau in their absolute CD4+ T cell counts, while 65 patients had increasing and 8 patients had decreasing absolute CD4+ T cell counts. In patients with plateaued CD4+ T cell counts, variability in absolute CD4+ T cell counts was greater than in percent CD4+ T cells (median coefficient of variation (CV) 16.6% [IQR 13.8-20.1%] and CV 9.6% [IQR 7.4-13.0%], respectively). Patients with increasing CD4+ T cell counts had greater variability in absolute CD4+ T cell counts than those with plateaued CD4 T cell counts (CV 19.5% [IQR 16.1-23.8%], p