Search

We thank Dr. Yurkin for his considered and constructive critique of our paper. We respond to his insightful comments below and hope that this discussion motivates further communication and cooperation and benefits to the scattering by small particles community. Key Points: Fenni et al. (2021, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020jd034172) main outcome is the enhancement in accuracy and computational cost of MIDAS with use of higher‐order quadrature schemesMajor conclusions of Fenni et al. (2021, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020jd034172) are validated on a large set of realistic arbitrarily‐shaped ice aggregates [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper introduces the special collection in Geophysical Research Letters and Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres on the exceptional stratospheric polar vortex in 2019/2020. Papers in this collection show that the 2019/2020 stratospheric polar vortex was the strongest, most persistent, and coldest on record in the Arctic. The unprecedented Arctic chemical processing and ozone loss in spring 2020 have been studied using numerous satellite and ground‐based data sets and chemistry‐transport models. Quantitative estimates of chemical loss are broadly consistent among the studies and show profile loss of about the same magnitude as in the Arctic in 2011, but with most loss at lower altitudes; column loss was comparable to or larger than that in 2011. Several papers show evidence of dynamical coupling from the mesosphere down to the surface. Studies of tropospheric influence and impacts link the exceptionally strong vortex to reflection of upward propagating waves and show coupling to tropospheric anomalies, including extreme heat, precipitation, windstorms, and marine cold air outbreaks. Predictability of the exceptional stratospheric polar vortex in 2019/2020 and related predictability of surface conditions are explored. The exceptionally strong stratospheric polar vortex in 2019/2020 highlights the extreme interannual variability in the Arctic winter/spring stratosphere and the far‐reaching consequences of such extremes. Plain Language Summary: The Arctic stratospheric polar vortex—a band of strong winds roughly encircling the pole at about 65°N latitude from about 15 to 50 km above the Earth's surface that forms every winter—was exceptionally strong during the 2019/2020 winter. The strong vortex in the stratosphere was linked to unusual conditions at both higher and lower altitudes. This collection of papers explores the far‐reaching consequences of the exceptionally strong stratospheric polar vortex in 2019/2020, including impacts on Arctic chemical ozone loss and on surface weather conditions. Chemical ozone loss in spring 2020 matched or exceeded the most previously on record (for 2011) and showed some features similar to the larger loss that occurs over the Antarctic every spring. The exceptionally strong stratospheric polar vortex was linked to weather extremes, including record heat, unusual patterns of precipitation, marine cold air outbreaks, and windstorms. Key Points: The stratospheric polar vortex in 2019/2020 was the strongest and longest‐lasting on record as described in this special collectionThis exceptionally strong and cold polar vortex led to unprecedented Arctic ozone loss, approaching that in some Antarctic wintersCirculation anomalies linked to the vortex spanned the mesosphere to the surface with implications for extreme weather and predictability [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Polar Mesospheric Cloud (PMC) Turbulence experiment performed optical imaging and Rayleigh lidar PMC profiling during a 6‐day flight in July 2018. A mosaic of seven imagers provided sensitivity to spatial scales from ∼20 m to 100 km at a ∼2‐s cadence. Lidar backscatter measurements provided PMC brightness profiles and enabled definition of vertical displacements of larger‐scale gravity waves (GWs) and smaller‐scale instabilities of various types. These measurements captured an interval of strong, widespread Kelvin‐Helmholtz instabilities (KHI) occurring over northeastern Canada on July 12, 2018 during a period of significant GW activity. This paper addresses the evolution of the KHI field and the characteristics and roles of secondary instabilities within the KHI. Results include the imaging of secondary KHI in the middle atmosphere and multiple examples of KHI "tube and knot" (T&K) dynamics where two or more KH billows interact. Such dynamics have been identified clearly only once in the atmosphere previously. Results reveal that KHI T&K arise earlier and evolve more quickly than secondary instabilities of uniform KH billows. A companion paper by Fritts et al. (2022), https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD035834 reveals that they also induce significantly larger energy dissipation rates than secondary instabilities of individual KH billows. The expected widespread occurrence of KHI T&K events may have important implications for enhanced turbulence and mixing influencing atmospheric structure and variability. Key Points: First observation of unambiguous secondary Kelvin‐Helmholtz instabilities in high‐resolution images of the polar mesospheric cloud layerIdentification and quantification of Kelvin‐Helmholtz billow interactions leading to tubes and knots and accelerated billow breakdownEstimation of turbulence Reynolds number Returb ∼ 5,000 and νturb ∼ 3 times larger than the kinematic viscosity [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The expression "lightning never strikes twice" is questioned in this paper because, among the randomness of lightning impacts, some spots are hit even more than twice year after year. This article introduces the recurrent lightning spots (RLS) concept, which are locations periodically impacted by cloud‐to‐ground lightning every consecutive year over a certain period. RLS are investigated in two regimes, with markedly different lightning climatology but similar orography, for 10 consecutive years: Catalonia (North East of Spain, Europe) and Barrancabermeja (North Central Colombia, South America). Results revealed 148 and 916 RLS in Catalonia and Barrancabermeja, respectively. RLS in both regions are typically found to be related to tall structures, mountain peaks, and steep terrain. The method allowed us to identify those tall towers and orographic relief frequently affected by lightning that are not detected with the mere computation of the ground flash density. In the case of Catalonia, some RLS are found offshore. Besides the scientific interest in understanding lightning, the new concept of RLS provides additional and valuable information applicable to lightning protection engineering. Plain Language Summary: The expression "lightning never strikes twice" is questioned in this paper because it shows that some spots are hit even more than twice: year after year. The RLSs (RLS) concept is presented, which are locations where lightning strike them periodically. The two regions of study with markedly different lightning climatology but similar orography are Catalonia (North East of Spain, Europe) and Barrancabermeja (in North Central Colombia, South America). RLS in both regions are typically found to be related to tall structures, mountain peaks and steep terrain. In the case of Catalonia, some RLS are found offshore. RLS new concept provides valuable information to lightning protection engineering. Key Points: Recurrent lightning spots (RLS) are targets with at least one cloud‐to‐ground lightning per year during a certain number of consecutive yearsIn Catalonia (Spain), 13% of the RLS are tall towers, 72% are mountainous peaks and 5% are offshore sitesThe method effectively finds tall structures affected by lightning in tropical climates [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a recent paper Fenni et al. (2021, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020jd034172) compared the code MIDAS, based on the direct solution of the volume‐integral equation combined with advanced cubatures for orientation averaging, to the code DDSCAT, a state‐of‐the‐art implementation of the discrete dipole approximation. This comment highlights methodological issues in this comparison and shows that the quantitative claims of Fenni et al. (2021, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020jd034172), related to superiority of MIDAS over DDSCAT, are based on very specific test cases with respect to particle symmetries or initial orientation, as well as to the selected scattering quantity of interest. Thus, these claims are not expected to hold for other similar particles. Moreover, the detailed discussion of these issues is relevant for all light‐scattering simulation methods, except those allowing analytical orientation averaging. Thus, the comment constructs general guidelines for fair evaluation of orientation‐averaging techniques in a wide range of light‐scattering methods and computer codes. Plain Language Summary: The paper discusses several issues that appear when one is comparing different orientation‐averaging techniques (cubatures) in combination with the same or different light‐scattering simulation methods. Fair evaluation of cubature performance in realistic general scenarios is important both for practitioners (to choose the most efficient combination of the existing codes and cubatures) and for code developers (to set their priorities on the new features with the largest expected benefits). Unfortunately, the performance of the cubatures is complexly interwoven with the internals of the simulation methods and depends on specific test particles and computed scattering quantities. This questions the generality of conclusions in some previous publications. Based on this discussion, the paper ends with general guidelines for fair evaluation of cubatures, allowing future studies to arrive at general conclusions, so that they can be directly used by other researchers. Key Points: Quantitative conclusions of Fenni et al. (2021) are based on very specific test casesOrientation‐averaging techniques should be compared on non‐symmetric particles, and not with a special initial orientationAny comparison of simulated results should consider their uncertainties accounting for all sources of errors [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wildfire‐related aircraft field campaigns frequently offer opportunities to validate remote‐sensing retrievals of aerosol properties and other quantities derived from satellite‐borne‐instrument observations. Satellite instruments often provide regional context‐imagery for more sparsely sampled aircraft and surface‐based measurements. However, aerosol amount, particle type, aerosol plume height and the associated wind vector products retrieved from the NASA Earth Observing System's Multi‐angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) instrument have matured sufficiently that these quantities can also contribute substantially to a campaign data set, in regional context. This is especially useful when such measurements are not acquired at all from the suborbital platforms. During NOAA's California Fire Dynamics Experiment (CalFiDE), aircraft operations were coordinated with MISR overpasses on two occasions: for the Rum Creek fire on 30 August 2022, and for the Mosquito fire on 08 September. MISR‐retrieved aerosol properties show distinctly different patterns of black and brown smoke particle distributions and inferred plume evolution in the two cases. This paper presents the satellite‐retrieved results that complement the field observations, demonstrating what such measurements can offer, and contributing material for detailed fire dynamics and chemistry studies when combined with the CalFiDE suborbital observations and models in continuing studies. Plain Language Summary: A common use of aircraft field campaigns is to validate the radiances measured by space‐based instruments and the geophysical quantities derived from the satellite observations. However, satellite aerosol amount and properties derived from the NASA Earth Observing System's Multi‐angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) instrument are sufficiently mature that they can also contribute directly to field‐campaign data sets. During NOAA's CalFiDE campaign is summer 2022, on two occasions the aircraft observed wildfire smoke plumes coordinated with MISR overpasses: for the Rum Creek fire on 30 August 2022, and for the Mosquito fire on 08 September. In addition to providing broad spatial context to the much more spatially limited aircraft measurements, the MISR results offer geometrically‐derived smoke‐plume height and plume‐level motion vectors from which smoke age can be estimated downwind along the plume. From MISR‐retrieved constraints on particle size, shape, and light‐absorption properties, the distribution of black and brown smoke can be inferred, along with the underlying processes responsible for plume‐particle evolution. This paper presents the satellite‐retrieved results that complement the suborbital data acquired for the CalFiDE campaign and associated modeling, for use in continuing studies of fire dynamics. Key Points: NASA's MISR multi‐angle imagery allows aerosol plume‐height, associated motion vector, and particle property retrievals from spaceTypically, field data are acquired to validate satellite data, but MISR data is mature enough to contribute directly to the CalFiDE campaignAircraft and MISR overflights were coordinated twice, yielding MISR aerosol context and detail for joint smoke‐plume dynamics and chemistry study [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Volcanic ash clouds are carefully monitored as they present a significant hazard to humans and aircraft. The primary tool for forecasting the transport of ash from a volcano is dispersion modeling. These models make a number of assumptions about the size, sphericity and density of the ash particles. Few studies have measured the density of ash particles or explored the impact that the assumption of ash density might have on the settling dynamics of ash particles. In this paper, the raw apparent density of 23 samples taken from 15 volcanoes are measured with gas pycnometry, and a negative linear relationship is found between the density and the silica content. For the basaltic ash samples, densities were measured for different particle sizes, showing that the density is approximately constant for particles smaller than 100 μm, beyond which it decreases with size. While this supports the current dispersion model used by the London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC), where the density is held at a constant (2.3 g cm−3), inputting the measured densities into a numerical simulation of settling velocity reveals a primary effect from the silica content changing this constant. The VAAC density overestimates ash removal times by up to 18%. These density variations, including those varying with size beyond 100 μm, also impact short‐range particle‐size distribution measurements and satellite retrievals of ash. Plain Language Summary: Volcanic ash clouds are carefully monitored as they present a significant hazard to humans and aircraft. Dispersion modeling is a primary tool used to forecast ash flows from volcanoes. These models make a number of assumptions about the size, sphericity (roundness) and density of the ash particles. Few studies have measured the density of ash particles or explored the impact that the assumption of ash density might have on the dispersion forecasts. In this paper, the density of 23 samples taken from 15 volcanoes are measured, and a negative linear relationship is found between the density and the silica content. For the basaltic ash samples (the most common type of ash), densities were measured for different particle sizes, showing that the density is approximately constant for particles smaller than 100 μm, beyond which it decreases with size. This supports the London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre keeping density constant in their current model, but in fact this constant changes with silica content, leading to an overestimation of ash removal times by up to 18%. These density deviations also impact short‐range particle‐size distribution measurements and satellite retrievals of ash. Key Points: The density of volcanic ash is measured as a function of particle size for a range of eruptionsSilica content and particle size negatively correlate with densityThe density of particles smaller than 100 μm is approximately constant but is dependent on silica content [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spatial climate data sets that extend back in time over many decades are an important resource for climate monitoring. The long‐term consistency of such data sets is, however, compromised by changes in the measurement systems over time. In this paper, we introduce a data set of monthly precipitation on a 5‐km grid over the European Alps that extends back to the late 19th century. In deriving the "long‐term Alpine precipitation reconstruction" (LAPrec), special care is taken of variations in the station network, in order for the data set to satisfy high standards in long‐term consistency. LAPrec builds on a reconstruction method that integrates the available information in two portions: The first is a set of high‐quality homogenized station series, taken from the HISTALP data archive, covering the entire period almost continuously. The second is a high‐resolution gridded precipitation analysis, taken from the "Alpine Precipitation Grid Data Set," constructed from thousands of rain‐gauges but covering a few decades only. We demonstrate how the reconstruction approach successfully introduces mesoscale structures that are not resolved by the available long‐term station series, more plausibly so than a predecessor data set using conventional interpolation. We also illustrate that LAPrec reveals long‐term precipitation trends that are spatially more consistent and more detailed than the trends in popular climate monitoring data sets. Over the period 1871–2017 a statistically significant increase is found in winter over the northern parts of the Alps (1%–2% per 10 years). LAPrec is available in two versions (back until 1871 and 1901 respectively) from the Copernicus climate data store. Plain Language Summary: Data sets extending back in time over many decades are an important resource for climate monitoring. In this paper, we introduce a data set on a regular grid of monthly precipitation over the European Alps that extends back to 1871. In deriving the "long‐term Alpine precipitation reconstruction" (LAPrec), special care is taken to keep the station network constant and make use of high‐quality homogenized time series, in order for the data set to be as consistent as possible over time. LAPrec builds on two sources of information: The first is a set of high‐quality station series from the HISTALP data archive, covering the entire period almost continuously. The second is a high‐resolution gridded precipitation analysis, the "Alpine Precipitation Grid Data Set," constructed from thousands of rain‐gauges but covering a few decades only. We demonstrate how this approach successfully introduces details that are not resolved by the available long‐term station series. We also illustrate that LAPrec reveals long‐term precipitation trends that are spatially more consistent and detailed than the trends in popular climate monitoring data sets. Over the period 1871–2017 a statistically significant increase in winter precipitation is found over the northern parts of the Alps. LAPrec is available from the Copernicus climate data store. Key Points: Long‐term spatial analyses of precipitation in the European Alps since 1871For applications such as climate monitoring and trend analysis, the data set meets high standards in long‐term consistency and homogeneityLong‐term Alpine precipitation reconstruction detects a significant trend in winter precipitation over the northern part of the Alps in the period starting from 1871 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper makes use of a combination of FLEXPART‐WRF simulations forced with ERA5 and the CESM2 model—incorporated in the CMIP6 project—to infer a series of changes over the present century in the behavior of the landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) arriving to the Iberian Peninsula. In addition, future changes in the intensity and position of their main moisture sources are studied. In overall terms, there is a noticeable increase in the amount of moisture transported by ARs in the study region, particularly accentuated by the end of the century. However, no significant changes in the number of events are observed. A northward shift of both the mean position of the ARs as well as their main sources of moisture is also detected, particularly for the end of the century, and in the summer and fall months. In relation to the latter, an increase in the contribution of moisture contribution is also observed, quantitatively compatible with Clausius‐Clapeyron amplification. Plain Language Summary: This paper makes use of a combination of simulations forced with reanalysis data and a climate model to infer a series of changes over the present century in the behavior of the landfalling atmospheric river—ARs, regions of intense moisture transport located in the lower layers of the atmosphere—arriving at the Iberian Peninsula. In addition, future changes in the intensity and position of their main moisture sources are studied. In overall terms, there is a noticeable increase in the amount of moisture transported by ARs in the study region, particularly accentuated by the end of the century. However, no significant changes in the number of events are observed. A northward shift of both the mean position of the ARs as well as their main sources of moisture is also detected, particularly for the end of the century, and in the summer and fall months. In relation to the latter, an increase in the contribution of moisture contribution is also observed, in a ratio similar to that expected. Key Points: FLEXPART‐WRF forced with CESM2 model has been able to reproduce the historical conditions of Atmospheric River over the Iberian PeninsulaA northward shift of the main source regions is projected, notable in summer and fall and particularly by the end of the centuryGradual strengthening in the intensity of Atmospheric Rivers is expected, observable from an increase in the amount of moisture transported [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we analyze electric‐field and current measurements of upward leaders induced by a downward negative lightning flash that struck a residential building. The attachment process was recorded by two high‐speed cameras running at 37,800 and 70,000 images per second and the current measured in two lightning rods. Differently from previous works, here we show, for the first time, current measurements of multiple upward leaders that after initiation propagate to connect the negative downward moving leader. At the beginning of the propagation of the leaders that initiate on the instrumented lightning rods, current pulses appear superimposed to a steadily increasing DC current. The upward leader current pulses increase with the approach of the downward leader and are not synchronized but present an alternating pattern. All 2D leader speeds are approximately constant. The upward leaders are slower than the downward leader speed. The average time interval between current pulses in upward leaders is close to the interstep time interval found by optical or electric field sensors for negative cloud‐to‐ground stepped leaders. The upward leaders respond to different downward propagating branches and, as the branches alternate in propagation and intensity, so do the leaders accordingly. Right before the attachment process the alternating pattern of the leaders ceases, all downward leader branches intensify, and consequently upward leaders synchronize and pulse together. The average linear densities for upward leaders (49 and 82 μC/m) were obtained for the first time for natural lightning. Plain Language Summary: The effectiveness of a lightning protection system depends on its efficiency to intercept the down coming leader of a cloud‐to‐ground lightning flash. The interception is usually done by an upward connecting leader that initiates from grounded structures, humans, or living beings that protrude from nearby ground. The understanding of the upward connecting leader and of the attachment process with the downward leader plays an important role in the determination of the zone of protection and therefore in the improvement of a lightning protection system. Unconnected upward leaders, that is, upward leaders that fail to connect the downward leader, are also of great importance in lightning protection. They can be large enough to cause damage to equipment vulnerable to sparks or induced currents, and enough to injure people from who it initiates. In this paper we analyze electric‐field, speed, and current measurements of upward leaders induced by a downward negative lightning flash that struck a residential building. The attachment process was simultaneously recorded by two high‐speed cameras, an electric‐field sensor, and current sensors installed on two lightning rods. Differently from previous works we show, for the first time, current measurements of multiple upward leaders induced by the negative downward moving leader. Key Points: Current and charge density measurements of two upward leaders induced by the same downward leaderUpward leaders alternate their progression during initial propagationCurrent pulses of upward leaders increase intensity and synchronize right before attachment [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Volcanic aerosols change the atmospheric composition and thereby affect weather and climate. Aerosol dynamic processes such as nucleation, condensation, and coagulation modify the shape, size, and mass of aerosol particles, which influence their atmospheric lifetime and radiative properties. Nevertheless, most models omit these processes for ash particles. In this work, we explore the ash aerosol aging and sulfate production during the first 4 days following the 2021 La Soufrière (St. Vincent) eruption with the ICON‐ART model (ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic model with Aerosol and Reactive Trace gases). Online coupling of ICON‐ART with a one‐dimensional volcanic plume model calculates volcanic emission, which makes it possible to resolve the different eruption phases of the noncontinuous La Soufrière eruption. We compared our simulated aerosol distribution and composition with observations from the Cloud‐Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) instrument, the Multiangle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) Research Aerosol (RA) Algorithm, and the Barbados Cloud Observatory (BCO). We show that online coupling is essential to adequately model the emissions and plume development close to the volcano. The modeled aerosol aging is in very good agreement with observations from MISR near the emission source and with CALIOP at larger distances. Furthermore, particle aging occurs faster in the troposphere than in the stratosphere due to the availability of water vapor and OH, but a layer of coated ash appears at the plume top due to faster oxidation of SO2 and lofting by aerosol‐radiation interaction. This paper gives the first direct comparison of aerosol aging in volcanic eruption plumes between simulations and observations. Plain Language Summary: Large volcanic eruptions can influence weather and climate, and endanger aviation and public health. To constrain these effects and risks, it is critical to reliably predict the volcanic plume dispersion. However, the atmospheric lifetime of the ash released during an eruption is influenced by many factors, such as emission height, meteorology, and aerosol dynamical processes. Aerosol dynamical processes lead to growth and aging of volcanic plume particles. They include the formation of new particles from precursor gases, condensation on existing particles, and coagulation of particles. This paper investigates the formation of aged ash particles in model simulations and observations following the 2021 La Soufrière eruption. We consider ash aging both close to the volcano and during further transport. We found that ash aging takes place already close to the volcano and the fraction of aged particles increases with distance from the source. During further transport, a layer of aged ash particles forms at the plume top due to interaction of these particles with radiation and subsequent warming of the plume. Key Points: Resolving individual eruption phases is essential for modeling the 2021 La Soufrière eruptionCombination of modeling and satellite data confirm, for the first time, the aging of volcanic ashAsh aging and sulfate production rates depend on distance from the source and altitude [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the empirical relationship between the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO), and atmospheric river (AR) activity and precipitation in California on subseasonal time scales. We introduce an experimental forecast tool that uses observed anomaly patterns during a 38 yr period to predict the probability of above‐ and below‐normal AR activity and precipitation at lead times of 1–6 weeks based on the phase and amplitude of the MJO and QBO. The hindcast prediction skill of probabilistic AR activity and precipitation forecasts is evaluated for Northern, Central, and Southern California, as well as two sets of smaller geographical domains. These smaller domains are more relevant for water resource management and allow us to investigate the sensitivity of prediction skill to domain size. Consistent with previous studies, our results demonstrate that subseasonal AR activity and precipitation in California are strongly modulated by the MJO and QBO. The anomaly patterns of AR activity and precipitation vary considerably throughout the cool season, with a tendency toward below‐normal AR activity and precipitation during easterly QBO and above‐normal AR activity and precipitation during westerly QBO in JFM. The opposite patterns are generally observed in OND, but the anomaly signals are weaker and less coherent for AR activity. Certain combinations of MJO phase, QBO phase, lag time, and season yield notably higher skill scores, reinforcing the notion of "windows of opportunity" for skillful subseasonal‐to‐seasonal predictions. In California, these forecasts of opportunity are predominantly associated with easterly QBO in JFM and FMA. Plain Language Summary: This paper examines the relationship between the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO), and atmospheric river (AR) activity and precipitation in California. We introduce an experimental forecast tool that shows the likelihood of above‐normal and below‐normal AR activity and precipitation based on the phases of the MJO and QBO. Consistent with previous studies, our results demonstrate that AR activity and precipitation in California are strongly influenced by the MJO and the QBO. There is a tendency for below‐normal AR activity and precipitation during easterly QBO conditions in January–March. The opposite pattern (above‐normal AR activity and precipitation) generally occurs during westerly QBO conditions. The results also suggest that our forecast tool has some potential to improve the prediction of AR activity and precipitation. The reliability and usefulness of this forecast tool depend on multiple factors, including the MJO phase, the QBO phase, and the time of year. In California, this forecast tool is likely to provide the most beneficial value during easterly QBO conditions in mid‐winter through early spring. Key Points: The modulation of atmospheric river (AR) activity and precipitation in California by the Madden‐Julian oscillation and quasi‐biennial oscillation is quantifiedA hindcast skill assessment of probabilistic AR activity and precipitation forecasts is presentedAn experimental subseasonal AR activity and precipitation forecast tool is introduced [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper utilizes Aerosol Index (AI) data from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) instrument, along with ERA5 reanalysis data, to identify atmospheric processes contributing to the uplift of dust from the Etosha Pan through the annual cycle. Etosha is one of the most prominent source areas in the Southern Hemisphere, although very little is known about its meteorology outside of the peak dust season (August–October). Emissions in December (AI = 1.6) are shown to be comparable to those in September (AI = 1.7), the dustiest month in the TOMS record. Unlike in September however, when a nocturnal low‐level jet is the primary emission mechanism, uplift in December is associated with an anabatic‐sea breeze that develops along the Namib coast, and propagates inland to reach Etosha during the evening. The system is a response to the thermal contrast between the elevated interior plateau and the adjacent waters of the cool Benguela Upwelling System, and so is at its strongest during austral summer, when the area of maximum diabatic heating shifts south over southern Africa. Topographic channeling of the flow through the east‐west orientated Hoanib River valley is shown to facilitate the inland propagation of the anabatic‐sea breeze, and explains the persistence of the system at Etosha's latitude. Evening surface winds at Etosha, associated with the anabatic‐sea breeze, are significantly stronger in the dustier December months, when diabatic heating over the subcontinent and hence the zonal thermal gradient are enhanced. Plain Language Summary: This paper uses satellite and meteorological data to identify the features of southern Africa's weather and climate that contribute to dust emission from the Etosha Pan throughout the year. Etosha is an important source of dust in the Southern Hemisphere, however very little work has been conducted there outside of the winter season, when emissions are at their highest. From the satellite data, it is shown that December is just as dusty as some of the winter months, however there is a difference in the low‐level winds between the two seasons; in winter, emissions are driven by a morning peak in surface wind speeds, whereas emissions in December are driven by maximum surface winds during the evening. This evening peak in surface winds is shown to coincide with the arrival of a sea breeze at Etosha, with the system a response to the strong heating of the southern African plateau at this time of year. Evening surface winds associated with the sea breeze are stronger during the dustiest December months at Etosha, and are driven by enhanced heating over the subcontinent. Key Points: An anabatic‐sea breeze helps to drive austral summer dust emissions from one of the Southern Hemisphere's most prominent source areasThe anabatic‐sea breeze is present throughout the year, however is at its strongest, and propagates furthest inland during austral summerVariability in the strength of the system is driven by changes in the pattern of diabatic heating over the interior of southern Africa [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Following on our earlier single‐station, 2‐dimensional (2D) broadband interferometric mapping and polarization (BIMAP) observations of lightning discharges, we recently deployed two BIMAP stations at Los Alamos National Laboratory to map the lightning sources and their polarization in full 3‐dimensional (3D) space (BIMAP‐3D). The two stations are separated by 11.5‐km and each station consists of four antenna sets (instead of three for the original BIMAP) that form a Y‐shaped array for improved interferometric performance. In this paper, we report the BIMAP‐3D system design, a generalized and analytical 2D interferometry technique for noncoplanar antenna array, a two‐stage 3D mapping technique based on geometric triangulation and baseline‐based differential time of arrival, and a technique to reconstruct the polarization orientation in 3D space by combining the 2D polarization results from the two‐station observations. Along with description of the techniques, we demonstrate and discuss the initial lightning results, including 3D maps for a hybrid intracloud and cloud‐to‐ground flash and for a normal intracloud flash, development of abnormal K‐change leaders, and polarization signatures for a K‐change leader. We find that with the two‐stage 3D mapping techniques, the sources can be located to meters accuracy for a favorable event that occurs between the two stations. We also find the polarization vectors for the example K leader are mostly orthogonal to the leader channel after the full 3D polarization analysis. The main purpose of this paper is to report the BIMAP‐3D techniques and capabilities. Detailed analysis of more specific discharge processes will be reported in later studies. Plain Language Summary: A new 3‐dimensional broadband radio frequency interferometric mapping and polarization system (BIMAP‐3D) is developed and deployed at Los Alamos National Laboratory for lightning research. BIMAP‐3D provides an unprecedented capability in high‐resolution, time‐evolving 3D lightning source mapping and 3D source polarization detection for detailed study of lightning discharge physics. In this research, we described the BIMAP‐3D system, introduced a suite of advanced data processing techniques, and demonstrated BIMAP‐3D's capabilities with actual lightning observations. This new capability is expected to lead to a range of new understandings and discoveries for a variety of lightning discharge processes. Key Points: A new 3D broadband interferometric mapping and polarization system for lightning study is introducedA suite of new data process algorithms is reported, and 3D lightning results for overall flashes and K‐change leaders are demonstratedPolarization orientations for a K‐change leader are found mostly orthogonal to the leader channel [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on directly measured triggered lightning currents, the characteristics of 70 continuing current (CC) waveforms and 106 M‐component waveforms were analyzed. The durations of CC without M‐component are all less than 10 ms, which are significantly less than those of CCs with M‐components. The first M‐component always appears at no more than 4 ms after the return stroke. The characteristics of the superimposed M‐components will be different for CC of different durations. The M‐components superimposed on CCs with duration greater than 10 ms are 3–4 times larger in terms of risetime, half‐peak width, duration, and transfer charge than that superimposed on CCs with duration less than 10 ms. The time difference (TD) between the peak electric field and the peak current of the M‐component is affected by both the continuing current level (ICC) and the magnitude of the M‐component (IM). TD and ICC (or IM) will not be large at the same time. The duration of a CC following a return stroke with a peak current greater than 21.2 kA will not exceed 46.0 ms. Key Points: The characteristics of continuing current and M‐component current waveforms from triggered lightning were analyzedThe characteristics of the M‐components superimposed on continuing currents with different durations are differentThe time difference between the peak electric field and the peak current of the M‐component is related to two current parameters [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lidar and radar observations of persistent atmospheric wave activity in the Antarctic atmosphere motivate investigation of generation of acoustic‐gravity waves (AGWs) by vibrations of ice shelves and exploiting their possible ionospheric manifestations as a source of information about the ice shelves' conditions and stability. A mathematical model of the waves radiated by vibrations of a finite area of the lower boundary of the atmosphere is developed in this paper by extending to AGWs an efficient, numerically exact approach that was originally developed in seismology and underwater acoustics. The model represents three‐dimensional wave fields as Fourier integrals of numerical or analytical solutions of a one‐dimensional wave equation and accounts for the source directionality, AGW refraction and diffraction, and the wind‐induced anisotropy of wave dissipation. Application of the model to the generation of atmospheric waves in Antarctica by free vibrations of the Ross Ice Shelf reveals a complex three‐dimensional structure of the AGW field and elucidates the impact of various environmental factors on the wave field. The intricate variation of the wave amplitude with altitude and in the horizontal plane is shaped by the spatial spectrum of the ice surface vibrations and the temperature and wind velocity stratification from the troposphere to the mesosphere. It is found that the waves due to the low‐order modes of the free oscillations of the Ross Ice Shelf, which have periods of the order of several hours, can transport energy to the middle and upper atmosphere in a wide range of directions from near‐horizontal to near‐vertical. Plain Language Summary: This research paper paves the way to infer the conditions and stability of ice shelves in Antarctica by looking at unusual wave activity in the atmosphere. The researchers have developed a mathematical model to understand how these waves, called acoustic‐gravity waves (AGWs), are created by the vibrations of ice shelves. The model is based on a method previously used in seismology and underwater acoustics and accounts for various factors that affect the waves, such as the properties of the source, the way the waves bend and spread due to wind, and how they dissipate. The researchers applied this model to study the atmospheric waves generated by vibrations of the Ross Ice Shelf in Antarctica. The results show a complex 3D structure of the AGW field, highlighting the impact of different environmental factors on the wave activity. The variation in wave amplitude depends on the ice surface vibrations and the temperature and wind conditions at different heights in the atmosphere. The study found that waves with periods of several hours can transfer energy from the ice shelf to the middle and upper atmosphere in various directions. This new approach could help scientists better understand the conditions and stability of ice shelves in the future. Key Points: Vibrations of large ice shelves radiate atmospheric waves that can travel in a wide range of directions from near‐horizontal to near‐zenithSimple, numerically efficient model is developed of atmospheric wave generation by finite sources at the ground levelWith the surface vibrations' spectrum as the input, the model quantifies atmospheric perturbations from the troposphere to the thermosphere [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Multi‐resolution analysis methods can reveal the underlying physical dynamics of nonstationary signals, such as those from lightning. In this paper we demonstrate the application of two multi‐resolution analysis methods: Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) and Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) in a comparative way in the analysis of electric field change waveforms from lightning. EEMD and VMD decompose signals into a set of Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs). The IMFs can be combined using distance and divergence metrics to obtain noise reduction or to obtain new waveforms that isolate the physical processes of interest while removing irrelevant components of the original signal. We apply the EEMD and VMD methods to the observations of three close Narrow Bipolar Events (NBEs) that were reported by Rison et al. (2016, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms10721). The ΔE observations reveal the occurrence of complex oscillatory processes after the main NBE sferic. We show that both EEMD and VMD are able to isolate the oscillations from the main NBE, with VMD being more effective of the two methods since it requires the least user supervision. The oscillations are found to begin at the end of the NBEs' downward fast positive breakdown, and appear to be produced by a half‐wavelength standing wave within a weakly‐conducting resonant ionization cavity left behind in the wake of the streamer‐based NBE event. Additional analysis shows that one of the NBEs was likely initiated by an energetic cosmic ray shower, and also corrects a misinterpretation in the literature that fast breakdown is an artifact of NBE‐like events in interferometer observations. Plain Language Summary: This paper investigates the application of mode decomposition techniques to the analysis of Narrow Bipolar Events (NBEs). NBEs are high‐power discharges that often occur as the initiating event of lightning flashes, and are produced by streamer‐based activity called fast positive breakdown. We apply Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) and Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) methods to three NBEs that were observed at Langmuir Laboratory in New Mexico to extract and interpret oscillatory behavior that occurred following the NBEs. We show that both EEMD and VMD separate the oscillations from the strong electric field change of the parent NBE, with VMD being the preferred choice. The resulting waveforms are indicative of a shock‐excited residual process that lasts for tens of microseconds, beginning at the end of the downward fast breakdown activity. Although questions remain about the physical mechanism of the oscillations, they appear to be caused by the NBE's streamers creating a weakly‐conducting resonant cavity in its wake that supports half‐wavelength standing wave oscillations, analogous to the vibrations of a plucked guitar string. Key Points: Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition and Variational Mode Decomposition separate out Narrow Bipolar Event (NBE) oscillations for further studies of physical mechanisms responsible for oscillationsThe results show the oscillations initiate not during the NBE but at the end of the fast positive breakdown processThe oscillatory behavior indicates that residual ionic conductivity creates a resonant cavity which emits half‐wavelength radiation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A method to identify the turbulent mixing sources within the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) based on the shipborne coherent Doppler lidar measurements is introduced in this paper. Combining with the coherent Doppler lidar signal‐to‐noise ratio, vertical velocity skewness, turbulence kinetic energy dissipation rate, and wind shear intensity, the categories of turbulent mixing sources and the specific turbulent mixing sources could be determined. The method is applied into two voyages of MABL observation during May 2021 in the South China Sea and during April 2022 in the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea. The turbulent mixing processes are captured and the classification of the turbulence driven sources within the MABL are realized. The temporal‐spatial evolution characteristics of the turbulence mixing process in the MABL are investigated under different weather conditions containing clear‐sky day, cloudy‐sky day, and sea‐fog day. The convective mixing process is recognized in the daytime of the clear‐sky day and the intermittent cloud‐driven turbulence exists below the cloud layer. Additionally, the turbulent mixing is weak which could not act as the main driven source during the sea‐fog day. Furthermore, the dominant turbulence scale analyses of different turbulence sources are conducted based on the cospectra of the vertical velocity and the horizontal speed measurements. The turbulence parameters of different turbulence sources are statistical analyzed and compared in different sea areas. The classification method has the broad application prospects on the study of the air‐sea interaction. Plain Language Summary: The redistribution of substance and energy within the atmospheric boundary layer is achieved through the turbulent mixing in most cases. When the underlying surface is ocean, the complex turbulent mixing process within the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) is the key topic in the air‐sea interaction research because it would affect the atmosphere circulation through changing the momentum, heat and water vapor distributions. Hence the quantitative measurements of the vertically resolved turbulence parameters and understanding of the main sources of the turbulent mixing are crucial. In this paper, the turbulent mixing driven sources are identified based on the high‐accuracy turbulence parameters measured by coherent Doppler lidar. Through the two voyages of MABL observation in the South China Sea, Bohai Sea, and Yellow Sea, the temporal‐spatial evolution characteristics of the turbulence mixing process are investigated under different weather conditions including clear‐sky day, cloudy‐sky day, and sea‐fog day. Additionally, the scale analysis focuses on the dominant turbulence and the statistical analysis of turbulence parameters of different turbulent driven sources are conducted in different sea areas. This classification method has the great potential and broad application prospects on the study of the turbulent mixing characteristics and air‐sea interaction. Key Points: A method to identify the turbulent mixing sources in marine atmospheric boundary layer based on coherent Doppler lidar is introducedThe classification method is first demonstrated with the lidar measurements over the South China Sea, Bohai Sea, and Yellow SeaThe temporal‐spatial evolution characteristics of the turbulence mixing process are investigated under different weather conditions [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Guangdong‐Hong Kong‐Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA), a cluster of world‐class cities, is undergoing rapid urbanization. However, the heterogeneity of the urban thermal environment resulting from the diversity of urban forms is not yet fully understood. This paper assesses the heterogeneity of the urban heat island (UHI) effect in the GBA using the coupled Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model/multi‐layer urban canopy and building energy model (BEP/BEM), with high‐resolution local climate zone (LCZ) map as urban land use/land cover data. The average UHI intensity is found to peak at 1.8 ± 0.4°C in the evening, when the average UHI intensity of LCZ 2 can reach a maximum of 2.4 ± 0.58°C. Properly setting air‐conditioning temperatures can effectively prevent the enhancement of the UHI phenomenon at night by the anthropogenic heat (AH) released from air‐conditioning. The UHI‐induced local circulations and enhanced surface roughness inhibit the penetration of sea breezes inland, and surface wind speed decreases in all LCZs, with a maximum change of more than 0.8 m s−1. However, the increased thermal difference between land and sea leads to enhanced sea breezes offshore, especially in the Pearl River estuary. In addition, a series of sensitivity experiments have been conducted in this paper on initial and boundary conditions, building drag coefficients and urban fractions, which paves the way for further analyzing urban climate in GBA using WRF model and LCZs. Plain Language Summary: With the rapid urbanization of the world, the demand for functional buildings has increased. Along with the diversification of urban forms, the differences in the thermal environment within cities are becoming more and more significant. This study therefore provides an in‐depth study of the urban thermal environment in the Guangdong‐Hong Kong‐Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) based on numerical simulation and local climate zones (LCZs). It was found that the urban heat island (UHI) intensity in different urban forms has obvious differences, and may vary by 1°C. However, the daily variation trends are similar, all showing a stronger UHI intensity at night than during the day, and reasonable setting of air‐conditioning temperature can effectively mitigate the UHI intensity at night. The UHI‐induced local circulations and enhanced surface roughness weaken the surface wind speed and inhibit the penetration of sea breeze inland, but enhance the sea breezes offshore, especially in the Pearl River estuary. This study provides references for urban planning and future sustainable development, especially for areas located along the coast that are undergoing rapid development. In addition, a series of sensitivity experiments on initial and boundary conditions, building drag coefficients and urban fractions provide useful suggestions for numerical model configuration in the GBA. Key Points: Tests of initial and boundary conditions, building drag coefficient and urban fractions provide recommendations for Weather Research and Forecasting configurationUrban heat island (UHI) varies between different local climate zones, but all peak in evening, and proper setting of air‐conditioning temperatures can mitigate UHI at nightUrbanization weakens surface wind speeds and inhibits the penetration of sea breezes inland, but strengthens the sea breezes offshore [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

E. Williams et al. (2022, commented paper) questioned electron energy spectra derived from thunderstorm ground enhancements (TGEs) measured on Aragats; they concluded that "A more likely origin for any detected electrons at 3.2 km above sea level is Compton scattering and pair production activated by longer‐range bremsstrahlung gamma rays, themselves produced by runaway electron encounters with nuclei in the breakeven field at higher altitude." In this comment, we show that the selection criteria of "electron" TGEs unambiguously reject the assumption of the origination of TGE electrons measured on Aragats from the Compton and pair production processes. Thus, the strong accelerating electric field above the earth's surface can be significantly lower (25–150 m) than derived in the commented paper 500 m altitude. Plain Language Summary: Electron accelerators operate in the thunderous atmosphere, sending copious particles to the Earth's surface. To get inside the models of electron acceleration and multiplication by strong atmospheric fields, the critical problem is the measurement of electrons and their energies as they arrive at the earth's surface. It is rather tricky because electrons are fast attenuated in the air, and the flux of accompanied gamma rays is attenuated much less and reaches the ground in overwhelming amounts. We developed special hardware and software methods to prove electrons' existence in the vast particle fluxes reaching the ground and to measure their energies. Simulations and careful examination of the registered particle fluxes check these methods. Key Points: The contribution of the Compton scattered and pair‐production electrons to TGE flux is negligible and cannot "mimic" the TGE electron fluxThe criteria used in the energy spectrum recovery from Aragats Solar Neutron Telescope (ASNT) reliably select "electron" TGE events and reject TGE events with small electron contentIf the strong accelerating electric field terminates low above the earth's surface (25–100 m), electrons from the large RREAs reach ASNT, and their energy spectrum can be reliably recovered [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the lower‐to‐upper atmosphere coupling at high latitudes (>60°N) during the northern winter months of 2012–2013 years, which includes a period of major Sudden "Stratospheric" Warming (SSW). We perform statistical analysis of thermosphere wind disturbances with periods of 30–70 min, known as the medium scale traveling atmospheric disturbances (MSTADs) in atomic oxygen green line (557.7 nm) near ∼120 km and red line (630.0 nm) emissions near ∼250 km observed from Scanning Doppler Imagers (SDIs) over Alaska. The SDI MSTADs observations (60°–75°N) are interpreted in conjunction with the previous daytime medium‐scale traveling ionospheric disturbance (MSTID) observations by SuperDARN midlatitudes (35°–65°N) radars in the F‐region ionosphere and western hemisphere, which confirm findings from the SDI instruments. Increases in MSTAD activity from SDIs show correlations with the increasing meridional planetary wave (PW) amplitudes in the stratosphere derived from MERRA2 winds. Furthermore, a detailed study of the lower atmospheric conditions from MERRA2 winds indicates that the lower atmospheric sources of MSTADs are likely due to the stratospheric generated Gravity Waves (GWs) and not orographic GWs. Favorable stratospheric propagation conditions and polar vortex disturbances resulting from the increased PW activity in the stratospheric region both appear to contribute to increased MSTAD activity in the thermosphere. Additionally, the results show that the MSTID activity from SuperDARN HF radars at mid latitudes during the January 2013 SSW is lower than the MSTAD activity in SDI winds at high latitudes. Plain Language Summary: The objective of this paper is to investigate how Atmospheric Gravity Waves (GWs) contribute to the vertical coupling of the atmosphere‐ionosphere system. When propagating from below, GWs can create medium‐scale traveling atmospheric disturbances (MSTADs) in the thermosphere, which in turn generate medium‐scale traveling ionospheric disturbances (MSTIDs) in the ionosphere. This study examines the coupling between the lower and upper atmosphere at high latitudes (>60°N) during the winter of 2012–2013, including a period of Sudden "Stratospheric" Warming (SSW) and quiet geomagnetic conditions. The analysis of MSTAD day‐to‐day activity observed using Scanning Doppler Imagers that measure airglow emissions in Alaska confirms similar MSTID activity in observed ion density from SuperDARN mid‐latitudes radars. The study also confirms that the increased MSTAD activity in the lower‐to‐upper thermosphere is due to stratospheric‐generated GWs, rather than orographic GWs, and is linked to increased planetary wave activity in the stratospheric meridional winds and polar vortex disturbances. Therefore, the paper not only highlights the global characteristics of thermosphere GW‐like variations in the western hemisphere but also their connection to lower atmosphere dynamics. Key Points: Variations of medium scale traveling atmospheric disturbances (MSTADs) observed in Scanning Doppler Imager (SDI) winds near ∼250 km agree with SuperDARN HF radars medium‐scale traveling ionospheric disturbances observations over western hemisphereMSTAD variability in the thermosphere over Alaska during winter months demonstrates a correlation with dynamics in the stratosphereIncreased MSTAD activity in the thermosphere correlates with increasing meridional planetary wave amplitudes in the stratosphere [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Western Pacific jet stream (WPJS) is an essential part of atmospheric circulation in winter, which significantly influences the weather and climate of the North Pacific and North America. In this paper, the characteristics and mechanism of WPJS subseasonal variation in winter are investigated. The upstream atmospheric disturbances in the East Asian polar‐front jet and subtropical jet merge over the Northwestern Pacific to form the subseasonal variability in WPJS, which has a significant period of 40–60 days. During the positive phase events of subseasonal WPJS, the convergence position of the upstream atmospheric disturbances shifts southwardly accompanied with the local enhancement and eastward extension of subseasonal WPJS. On the other hand, the subseasonal WPJS divides into the southern and northern westerly branches during the negative phase events. By the horizontal propagation of local Eliassen‐Palm fluxes in the upper atmosphere, the northward drift of the upstream atmospheric disturbances convergence dominates the delayed acceleration of the northern upper westerly branch. However, the intensification of atmospheric baroclinicity and upward baroclinic energy caused by the leading strong subtropical frontal zone determine the acceleration of the southern upper westerly branch. Plain Language Summary: As an important part of the atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere, the Western Pacific jet stream (WPJS) has significant impacts on the climate and weather of the North Pacific and North America. However, previous studies more focused on the interannual or synoptic variability of WPJS. The characteristics and mechanism of the subseasonal variability of WPJS have not been appropriately explained, which are very important for the persistent disastrous weather. In this paper, the subseasonal variability characteristics and mechanism of WPJS in winter are investigated by using the daily average reanalysis data from year 1979 to 2022. About 130 WPJS persistent positive and negative phase events are detected, each of which can sustain more than 20 days. Further results show that the subseasonal variability of WPJS is determined by the synergistic effects of upstream atmospheric disturbances and subtropical frontal zone (STFZ). With the southward (northward) convergence of the strong upstream atmospheric disturbances and weaker (stronger) STFZ, the lagging positive (negative) subseasonal phase events of WPJS is more likely to occur and persist. This study is beneficial to the weather and climate forecasts of North Pacific and North America. Key Points: About 130 subseasonal events of winter Western Pacific jet stream (WPJS) are detected from year 1979–2022, each of which persists more than 20 daysWPJS shows local enhancement and extension during the positive subseasonal phase, but meridional separation in the negative oneThe synergistic effects of the upstream atmospheric disturbances and oceanic subtropical front on the subseasonal WPJS are revealed [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the thermal structure of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) using observations from 2002 through 2021 from the SABER instrument on the NASA TIMED satellite. These observations show that the MLT has significantly cooled and contracted between the years 2002 and 2019 (the year of the most recent solar minimum) due to a combination of a decline in the intensity of the 11‐year solar cycle and increasing carbon dioxide (CO2.) During this time the thickness of atmosphere between the 1 and 10−4 hPa pressure surfaces (approximately 48 and 105 km) has contracted by 1,333 m, of which 342 m is attributed to increasing CO2. All other pressure surfaces in the MLT have similarly contracted. We further postulate that the MLT in the two most recent solar minima (2008–2009 and 2019–2020) was very likely the coldest and thinnest since the beginning of the Industrial Age. The sensitivity of the MLT to a doubling of CO2 is shown to be −7.5 K based on observed trends in temperature and growth rates of CO2. Colder temperatures observed at 10−4 hPa in 2019 than in the prior solar minimum in 2009 may be due to a decrease of 5% in solar irradiance in the Schumann‐Runge band spectral region (175–200 nm). Plain Language Summary: The region of the atmosphere from 48 to 105 km (30 miles to 65 miles) above the Earth's surface is called the mesosphere and lower thermosphere or MLT. In this paper we show that the MLT has cooled dramatically from the year 2002–2019, by as much as 1.75 to 19 K (3.1–34.2 degrees Fahrenheit), depending on altitude. These results are obtained from temperatures measured by an instrument on a satellite in low Earth orbit since 2002. The observed cooling is attributed to a reduction in solar activity that influences the MLT temperature and to an increase of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the MLT. The observed cooling of the MLT due to increasing CO2 is an expected result. Between 2002 and 2019 the MLT contracted or shrank by up to 1,333 m or over 4,700 feet. A total of 342 m (1,142 feet) of this shrinkage is attributed to increasing CO2 and is considered a permanent change to the atmosphere. Our results also show that the MLT is expected to cool by 7.5 K (13.5 degrees Fahrenheit) due to a doubling of CO2 which is a benchmark calculation often used for comparison with other results. Key Points: Satellite measurements of temperature, geopotential height, and thickness reveal a cooling, contracting mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT)MLT temperatures in the two recent solar minima (2008–2009 and 2019–2020) were likely the coldest since the start of the Industrial AgeCold temperatures at 10−4 hPa in 2019 may be the result of lower solar irradiance in the Schumann–Runge bands (175–200 nm) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Subsidence in atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) appears to be rare and short‐lived, so it is very difficult to observe. In this paper, field experimental data from a large tethered balloon (1,900 m3) synchronously measuring meteorological parameters and air pollutants, a ground‐based aerosol lidar, a Doppler wind lidar, and some other ground observations were used to analyze the formation mechanism of subsidence and its influences on the variation of meteorological parameters and pollutant concentrations of the ABL. Results show that the occurrence of subsidence was closely correlated with the cold advection accompanied by cold front. Pollutants were horizontally transported to the observation site driven by southwest low‐level jet. Under the influence of subsidence behind the cold front and turbulent kinetic energy transported toward the surface, the vertical downward transport of pollutants aloft lasted for nearly 5 hr. The observation data of the tethered balloon suspending at 500 m show that the concentrations of PM2.5, NO3−, SO42−, and NH4+ increased simultaneously. O3 concentration in the lower atmosphere also increased. Subsidence had significant effects on the secondary inorganic aerosol concentrations but the concentration of organic aerosols was not affected. Subsidence led to a stronger inversion layer, further suppressing the vertical dispersion of pollutants. Both the stronger subsidence‐induced inversion layer and the downward transport of pollutants have led to an increase in the ground PM2.5 concentration. Our findings demonstrate the close connection between subsidence and air pollution process and may provide the scientific reference for air quality potential forecast. Plain Language Summary: Subsidence motion is an important kind of vertical exchange process and is usually known to exert great influences on the local air quality. The study on subsidence is poorly understood because of the less observation. Here, we utilized the multisource observation data of a tethered balloon platform and remote sensing measurements in Wangdu County located in the North China Plain to comprehensively study a subsidence case and investigate its impacts on the meteorological parameters and pollutants of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL). We found that the subsidence located behind the cold front and the observation site has been controlled by cold advection. Subsidence stabilized the lower layer of the ABL and the inversion intensity was strengthened. Subsidence also contributed to the vertical transport of pollutants advected under the influence of low‐level jet. The vertical transport of pollutants had more significant effects on secondary inorganic aerosols, while the concentration of organics was generally not affected. Our study provides the observation evidence of the formation and maintenance of subsidence and highlights the impacts of subsidence to the variation of meteorological parameters and pollutant concentrations of the ABL. Key Points: Data from large tethered balloon (1,900 m3), aerosol lidar, and Doppler wind lidar observations were analyzedSubsidence led to the increase of surface inversion intensity and a reduction of the core of the low‐level jet (LLJ) and aggravated ground pollutionThe downdrafts and the negative vertical turbulent kinetic energy flux associated with LLJ enhanced the downward diffusion of pollutants [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Kjellstrand et al. (2022), https://10.1029/2021JD036232 describes the evolution and dynamics of a strong, large‐scale Kelvin‐Helmholtz instability (KHI) event observed in polar mesospheric clouds (PMCs) on 12 July 2018 by high‐resolution imagers aboard the PMC Turbulence (PMC Turbo) stratospheric long‐duration balloon experiment. The imaging provides evidence of KH billow interactions and instabilities that are strongly influenced by gravity waves at larger scales. Specific features include initially separated regions of KHI, secondary convective and KH instabilities of individual billows, and "tubes" and "knots" that arise where billow cores are mis‐aligned or discontinuous along their axes. This study describes a direct numerical simulation of KH billow interactions in a periodic domain seeded with random initial noise that enables excitation of multiple KH billows exhibiting variable phase structures that capture multiple features of the observed KHI dynamics. Variable KH billow phases along their axes yield initial vortex tubes having diagonal alignments that link adjacent, but mis‐aligned, billow cores. Weak initial vortex tubes and billow cores having nearly orthogonal alignments amplify, interact strongly, and drive intense vortex knots at these sites. These vortex tube and knot (T&K) dynamics excite "twist waves" that unravel the initial vortex tubes, and drive increasingly strong vortex interactions and a cascade of energy and enstrophy to successively smaller scales in the turbulence inertial range. The implications of T&K dynamics are much more rapid and intense breakdown and decay of the KH billows, and significantly enhanced energy dissipation rates, where these interactions occur. Plain Language Summary: Kelvin‐Helmholtz instabilities (KHI) are ubiquitous throughout the atmosphere (and oceans) and have been studied for many years. Interactions between adjacent KH billows seen in early laboratory experiments named "tubes and knots" by Steve Thorpe were only recently recognized in imaging in the mesosphere. These KHI interactions were seen in the laboratory to lead to turbulence faster than secondary instabilities of individual billows. Despite very many papers describing KHI modeling, none have addressed tube and knot dynamics prior to their recent identification in the mesosphere. This paper describes modeling performed to explore the tube and knot dynamics seen during the PMC Turbo experiment and described in the companion paper. Results reveal that tube and knot dynamics yield dramatic increases in energy dissipation that may have important influences in the atmosphere and oceans. Key Points: Multi‐scale Kelvin‐Helmholtz (KH) instability dynamics arise due to natural variations in background flows and initial conditionsInteracting KH billows induce "tubes" and "knots" that form rapidly and are distinct from secondary instabilities of individual billowsTube and knot dynamics evolve more rapidly and yield larger energy dissipation rates than those of individual KH billows [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coherent structure is an important phenomenon in the fluid field, and also exists in atmospheric boundary layer. For example, after the passage of a cold front in spring in northern China, there is a rather regular gusty wind with a period of approximately 3 min superimposed on the basic strong wind, and the gusty wind possesses a coherent structure: the vertical velocity is upward when horizontal velocity is in the valley phase, but downward when horizontal velocity is in the peak phase. The coherence makes transport of momentum and matter more effective. It was later found that this gusty coherent structure is a phenomenon of mechanical turbulence, which occurs in weakly stable, neutral and unstable stratification. However, research on the physical mechanism of this coherent structure is still lacking. This paper shows that the gusty coherent structure can be explained by quasi‐streamwise vortex pairs and high and low speed streaks induced by quasi‐streamwise vortexes. The coherent structure can be obtained from the three‐dimensional Navier‒Stokes (N‒S) equations. The maximum intensities of vortices and streaks are located at 20.7% and 12.1% of the boundary layer heights respectively, which are consistent with the observed results at 200 and 120 m. Plain Language Summary: After the passage of a cold front in spring in northern China, there is a rather regular gusty wind superimposed on the basic strong wind, and its horizontal and vertical component are negatively correlated and make downward transport of momentum and matter more effective. It was later found that this gusty coherent structure is a phenomenon of mechanical turbulence. This paper points out the possible physical phenomenon underlying this negative coherence, gives a dynamic explanation of this phenomenon by the hydrodynamic stability method, and compares the solutions with the observation results. Key Points: The gusty coherent structure can be explained by quasi‐streamwise vortex pairs and high and low speed streaksThe physical model of the gusty coherent structure can be obtained by the hydrodynamic stability analysis methodThe position of maximum intensity of vortexes and streaks obtained from the solution is consistent with the observation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An international joint research project, entitled Interhemispheric Coupling Study by Observations and Modelling (ICSOM), is ongoing. In the late 2000s, an interesting form of interhemispheric coupling (IHC) was discovered: when warming occurs in the winter polar stratosphere, the upper mesosphere in the summer hemisphere also becomes warmer with a time lag of days. This IHC phenomenon is considered to be a coupling through processes in the middle atmosphere (i.e., stratosphere, mesosphere, and lower thermosphere). Several plausible mechanisms have been proposed so far, but they are still controversial. This is mainly because of the difficulty in observing and simulating gravity waves (GWs) at small scales, despite the important role they are known to play in middle atmosphere dynamics. In this project, by networking sparsely but globally distributed radars, mesospheric GWs have been simultaneously observed in seven boreal winters since 2015/16. We have succeeded in capturing five stratospheric sudden warming events and two polar vortex intensification events. This project also includes the development of a new data assimilation system to generate long‐term reanalysis data for the whole middle atmosphere, and simulations by a state‐of‐the‐art GW‐permitting general circulation model using the reanalysis data as initial values. By analyzing data from these observations, data assimilation, and model simulation, comprehensive studies to investigate the mechanism of IHC are planned. This paper provides an overview of ICSOM, but even initial results suggest that not only GWs but also large‐scale waves are important for the mechanism of the IHC. Plain Language Summary: In the late 2000s, an interesting form of the coupling between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres was discovered: when the winter polar stratosphere warms, the upper summer mesosphere also warms several days later. An international research project called Interhemispheric Coupling Study by Observations and Modelling (ICSOM) is ongoing to examine the mechanism of this interhemispheric coupling (IHC). This IHC phenomenon is thought to be the connection in the middle atmosphere (i.e., stratosphere, mesosphere, and lower thermosphere). Several promising mechanisms have been proposed, but they remain controversial. This is because gravity waves (GWs) having small scales, which are difficult to observe and simulate, are thought to play a crucial role in the coupling. So, we have performed observations of GWs by networking radars over seven Northern Hemisphere winters, and succeeded in capturing five stratospheric warming events and two opposite events. We also developed a new data assimilation system for the entire middle atmosphere and used the global data produced by the system to simulate GWs with a high‐resolution global model. By combining these research tools, we plan to elucidate the mechanism of IHC comprehensively. This paper presents an overview of ICSOM. Initial results show that not only GWs but also large‐scale waves are important for the IHC mechanism. Key Points: An international project is ongoing to elucidate the mechanism of interhemispheric coupling (IHC) in the middle atmosphereGravity waves (GWs), which are thought to play a key role in IHC, were observed by a radar network and simulated by high‐resolution global modelInitial results suggest that not only GWs but also large‐scale waves are important for the IHC mechanism [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in the frequency of temperature extremes are often attributed to global warming. The recent availability of near‐surface temperature data records from reference networks, such as the U.S. Climate Reference Network (USCRN), enables the quantification of measurement uncertainties. Within an activity of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, the estimation of the measurement uncertainty has been provided for USCRN temperature data, using metadata made available by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). In this paper, four climate extreme indices (Frost Days, Summer Days, Ice Days, Tropical Nights) and the related uncertainties are calculated for the period 2006–2020 from the USCRN data set and compared with traditional indices. Moreover, the asymmetric USCRN measurement uncertainties are propagated to estimate the uncertainties of climate indices. The comparison shows expanded uncertainties homogeneously distributed with the latitude and typically within 15 days per year for Frost Days and within 10 days for Ice Days, while smaller uncertainties are estimated for Summer Days and Tropical Nights, with values typically within six to seven days per year. Positive uncertainties are typically larger than negative ones for all the indices. The values of Frost and Ice Days with the related uncertainties for USCRN have also been compared with the corresponding values calculated from reanalyses data, showing differences typically within 60 days for median values, quite often smaller than USCRN and inconsistent within the related uncertainties, Overall, the results show that USCRN measurement uncertainties increase confidence in the estimation of climate extreme indices and decisions for adaptation. Plain Language Summary: The relationship between the intensity and frequency of extremes and climate change as well as their attribution to human activities is fundamental for improving the assessment of risk and the elaboration of adaptation strategies. Temperature extremes are often reported and estimated using observations or model data using indices, which are widely adopted in the research community and by decision‐makers. However, the number of temperature extremes is quantified assuming input observations as perfect, whereas these are always affected by uncertainties due to instrumental noise and systematic effects that cannot be always properly accounted for. This also implies that climate extreme indices may under or over‐represent the number of temperature extremes. The advent of reference measurement networks, as well as the overall increase in observational data quality due to recent technological improvements, allows us to quantify measurement uncertainties in detail. In this paper, temperature extremes over the US are estimated from near‐surface temperature measurements provided by the USCRN network in the period 2006–2020 with related uncertainties. The use of uncertainty illustrates the range of values that climate extreme indices may assume. Possible sources of uncertainties and comparisons with data from atmospheric reanalysis are also discussed. Key Points: An extensive assessment of uncertainties for four climate extreme indices is provided using reference near‐surface temperaturesEstimate uncertainties of climate indices for reanalysis validation and quantification of extremes by propagating measurement uncertaintiesUSCRN traceable measurements with quantified uncertainties increase confidence in estimating extreme indices and decisions for adaptation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Comprehensive marine atmospheric turbulence observation data, meteorological sounding and sea surface conditions in the South China Sea were employed to analyze and parameterize the vapor profile in the stable marine atmospheric boundary layer. The observations involved a three‐dimensional ultrasonic anemometer, water vapor carbon dioxide analyzer, radiosonde, and buoy. This paper theoretically determined that the water vapor profile function φq differs from the temperature profile function φh and that φq should be independently parameterized. A linear relationship existed between the dimensionless water vapor gradient and stability parameters based on the observation results, and φq was then obtained as φq(z/L) = az/L + b, in which the stability covered the stability range (z/L > 1). This result was applied in the Tropical Ocean‐Global Atmosphere Coupled‐Ocean Atmosphere Response Experiment bulk flux algorithm, and the simulation of the latent heat flux was improved. Plain Language Summary: Monin and Obukhov established the relationship between momentum flux and temperature flux and their respective vertical gradients. Using these two relations and some parameterization methods, we can calculate momentum flux and sensible heat flux. However, there is no physical basis for the above relationship for latent heat flux, and the effect of vertical distribution of water vapor on latent heat flux is not taken into account. In this paper, the relationship between water vapor flux and water vapor gradient is established and verified by marine observation data. Thus it can have more physical meaning and calculate the latent heat flux more accurately. This study is useful for understanding the boundary layer and model development. Key Points: The linear relationship between the dimensionless specific humidity gradient and the stability parameter is establishedThe temperature mixing length is longer than the specific humidity, and water vapor is more difficult to transfer in the vertical directionThe vertical distribution of water vapor has an important influence on the parameterization of water vapor flux [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to investigate the connection between TOPography‐based hydrological model (TOPMODEL) and Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model through virtual experiments from the perspective of water table and storage at the catchment scale. A simple finite‐difference groundwater flow model was built for a hypothetical catchment forced by a sequence of recharges. A steady‐state water table under a low recharge rate is used as the climatic lower limit, above which the pore space is considered as the maximum storage capacity. When the water table is shallow, the land surface is a good proxy of the water table as assumed in the original TOPMODEL, and the underlying water storage distribution curve is similar as the maximum storage capacity distribution curve. When the water table is deep, the climatic lower limit is a good proxy of water table, and the storage is approximately spatially uniform over the unsaturated area as assumed in the VIC model. The systematic variation of water table and storage distribution potentially provides a framework for unifying the TOPMODEL and VIC model. Plain Language Summary: The TOPography‐based hydrological model (TOPMODEL) and Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model are two widely used saturation excess runoff models in the field of hydrology. They have different conceptualizations on the rainfall‐runoff process, but how to select between them when solving realistic problems is not clear. This paper revisits their assumptions in terms of water table and storage distribution by comparing the simulations from a groundwater flow model for a hypothetical catchment. Results show that the water table and storage distribution assumed by the TOPMODEL and VIC model are two extreme cases under very humid and arid conditions, respectively. This finding suggests that these two different saturation excess runoff models are possibly unified into a single general hydrological model in which the assumptions of water table and storage distribution could be considered as functions of recharge or water table depth. Key Points: The storage in unsaturated area is uniform in the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model but follows the maximum storage capacity distribution in TOPography‐based hydrological model (TOPMODEL)The water table is topography‐controlled in the TOPMODEL but climatic lower limit‐controlled in the VIC modelThe systematic variation of water table and storage distribution potentially provides a framework to unify the TOPMODEL and VIC model [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A companion paper by Fritts et al. (2022), https://doi.org/10.1002/2021JD035990 describes the consequences of decreasing horizontal resolution in the description of mountain wave (MW) propagation, breaking, and large‐scale responses over the Southern Andes reaching into the mesosphere. This paper extends that analysis into the thermosphere, where MWs are confined below a critical level, but secondary gravity waves and acoustic waves become prominent and dominate the wave fields at higher altitudes. Like MWs at lower altitudes, the character and responses of secondary waves are strongly dependent on model resolution. MWs readily penetrate above a zonal wind minimum in the upper mesosphere and exhibit responses for varying resolution similar to those at lower altitudes. Both the MW and local mean responses weaken somewhat for resolution varying from 0.5 to 2 km, weaken more significantly for 4‐km resolution, and fail to approximate the high‐resolution results for 8‐km resolution. MW momentum fluxes and induced local mean responses are very different than those in the mesosphere, but exhibit similar variability with coarsening resolution. Secondary gravity waves at larger scales arise due to MW‐induced mean wind decelerations, hence are not highly sensitive to model resolutions of ∼0.5–2 km approximating MW breaking. However, acoustic waves are forced primarily by MW breaking, thus are poorly described at 2‐km resolution and absent at 4‐km resolution. These results reveal the dynamics that can and cannot be explicitly modeled as resolution is coarsened, and may aid in assessing, parameterizing, and/or compensating for the unresolved dynamics and their consequences. Plain Language Summary: This paper addresses the influences of decreasing resolution on the dynamics of secondary gravity waves (SGWs) arising in the thermosphere due to generation accompanying mountain wave (MW) breaking dynamics in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere. For high spatial resolution of 0.5 km able to describe the instability dynamics that account for MW breaking, SGW generation is strong and is driven by both (a) MW self‐acceleration dynamics at larger spatial scales and (b) MW breaking dynamics at smaller spatial scales. Reductions in model resolution degrade the SGW responses in two ways: (a) decreasing resolution to 2 km removes the ability to describe MW breaking dynamics and weakens the smaller‐scale SGW responses; and (b) decreasing resolution to 4 and 8 km significantly weakens or eliminates the larger‐scale SGW responses in the thermosphere due to inadequate spatial resolution and/or numerical impacts on their phase and vertical group velocities. Key Points: High spatial resolution of gravity wave dynamics at lower altitudes is critical in achieving realistic responses in the thermosphereFailure to describe gravity wave breaking dynamics significantly decreases secondary wave generation at smaller spatial scalesThermospheric secondary gravity waves excited by mountain waves in the winter hemisphere have dominant horizontal scales of ∼100–200 km [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres expresses gratitude to the 2854 scientists who reviewed manuscripts for the journal in 2023. Peer review is essential for maintaining the integrity and rigor of scientific research. The reviews have contributed to the improvement of paper quality, the generation of new ideas, and the advancement of young scientists' careers. The journal acknowledges the reviewers' selfless service and dedication to the scientific community and looks forward to their continued support. [Extracted from the article]

Land surface temperature anomalies can be linked to changes in local surface energy balance, although the relationship between surface temperature variability and individual radiative processes remains unclear. In this paper, we quantify the contributions of surface radiative effects and non‐radiative heat fluxes to the variance of monthly land surface temperature using European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis v5 data and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 simulations. The surface energy budget equation is used to link changes in surface radiation, surface heat fluxes and land surface temperature. Subsequently, surface radiation is decomposed into the radiative effects of clouds, air temperature, surface albedo and relative humidity using radiative kernels. The contributions of these radiative processes, including their coupling effects, are quantified using covariance matrices. The results reveal the air temperature radiative effect to be the most significant contributor to the variability of land surface temperature. In addition, the covariance terms reveal important coupling effects. For example, the contribution from the cloud radiative effect is found to be substantially dampened by its coupling with surface heat fluxes. The air temperature radiative effect is further decomposed into a forcing component and a feedback component using different regression methods, in an attempt to separate the air temperature radiative effect as the driver of the surface temperature variability. The cloud radiative effect becomes the primary contributor to the variance of surface temperature after separating the air temperature feedback, while the contribution of the air temperature radiative forcing remains important. Plain Language Summary: Land surface temperature is critical environmental variable. Through a statistical analysis of the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis v5 data and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 multi‐model simulations, we have explained the land surface temperature variability in relation to the surface energy fluxes. Specifically, we have attributed the variability of monthly surface radiation to the effects of different meteorological variables such as clouds, air temperature, surface albedo and relative humidity. Our findings suggest that the radiative effect of air temperature is the primary contributor to the variance of land surface temperature in most regions, although this effect includes a strong feedback effect of air temperature to surface temperature changes. After separating this feedback effect, the cloud radiative effect becomes the primary contributor. On the other hand, the contribution from cloud radiative effect is significantly counteracted by its coupling with surface heat fluxes. Key Points: The variance of land surface temperature is decomposed to contributions from surface radiative effects and heat fluxesThe radiative effect of air temperature is found to contribute the most to surface temperature variabilityThe cloud radiative effect is found to be the primary contributor after decoupling the air and surface temperature variations [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we applied a variety of statistical methods to study gravity waves in the troposphere and lower stratosphere in the Brazilian sector, using a large database from Instituto de Controle do Espaço Aéreo (ICEA) of radiosonde measurements carried out in 2014 at 32 locations in the Brazilian territory totaling 49,652 wind and temperature profiles. The average wind profiles were computed and classified by means of a hierarchical cluster analysis. The kinetic and potential energy densities of gravity waves were determined using a detrending technique based on the Least Squares Method and the Fast Fourier Transform. By analyzing the energy density time series it was found that tropospheric average values are consistently larger in the months of winter, late autumn and early spring. Stratospheric average values of variability and kinetic energy density are also consistently larger in this period. A systematic search for quasi monochromatic waves was carried out and their main characteristics such as horizontal/vertical wavelengths and velocities were determined both in the troposphere and lower stratosphere. A correlation analysis between the troposphere and the lower stratosphere based on the measured parameters was used to investigate the wave coupling between the two layers, and no significant correlation was found. Finally, a spatial correlation analysis between energy densities measured at different aerodromes in the same atmospheric layer was carried out, showing that energy densities are spatially correlated for distances less than 3,000–4,000 km. Plain Language Summary: Like waves in the ocean that can be easily seen by any observer in the beach, the atmosphere is also permeated by waves of similar nature, called Gravity Waves (GWs). These waves transport energy through the atmosphere, eventually breaking, reflecting or dissipating at some point. In this work we investigated the characteristics of these waves using weather data retrieved by weather balloons released from several locations in the Brazilian territory in 2014. By analyzing the measurements, we quantified parameters related to GWs, such as the kinetic and potential energy densities. We also investigated GWs that have well defined frequencies, called monochromatic waves, and determined their wavelengths, phases, amplitudes and phase velocities. We did not find correlations between the wave energies in the troposphere and the low stratosphere, which is an evidence of weak coupling between both layers. This result suggests that GWs characteristics are substantially modified in the perturbed, turbulent and windy region between the troposphere and low stratosphere. Moreover, we also identified the prevailing behavior of the winds in each of the studied locations. Key Points: A comprehensive survey on gravity waves using radiosonde data from 32 locations in the Brazilian territory totaling 49,652 profilesThe energy densities of gravity waves are spatially correlated within a region of approximately 3,000 km of radiusIt was found that gravity waves propagating in the troposphere and low stratosphere are uncorrelated in the studied locations [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seasonal forecasts are commonly issued in the form of anomalies, which are departures from the average over a specified multiyear reference period (climatology). The model climatology is estimated as the average of the retrospective forecasts over the hindcast period. However, different operational centers that provide seasonal ensemble predictions use different hindcast periods based on their model climatology. Additionally, the hindcast periods of recently developed and upgraded newer models have shifted in the recent years. In this paper, we discuss the recent challenges faced by APCC multi‐model ensemble (MME) operations, especially changes in the hindcast period for individual models. Based on the results of various experiments for MME prediction, we propose changing the hindcast period, which is the most appropriate solution for APCC operation. This makes the newly developed models join the MME and increases the total number of participating models, which facilitates the skill improvement of the MME prediction. Plain Language Summary: In seasonal forecasting, it is well known that the MME, which combines different single‐model predictions from various operational and research centers, is a more effective way to improve forecast skill. Since 2005, the APCC has provided the MME seasonal forecasts, and the models participating in the APCC MME operations have been continuously changing. In particular, as the hindcast periods of newly developed models shift to the latest, they cannot participate in operational MME forecasts because of climatological discrepancies. However, over time, as the number of new models expected to provide skillful forecasts gradually increases, the APCC faces the challenge of continuously reducing the number of participating models or changing the hindcast period to more recent years. Considering various aspects such as the number of participating models, skills, and climatology period, we selected the most appropriate method for APCC operation. Thus, the MME prediction skill has improved over most of the globe and seasons because of the increase in the number of participating models, particularly the inclusion of newer models. Key Points: APCC, which combines all the information from different ensemble prediction systems, recently faced challenges in hindcast period issuesThe proposed solution leads to an increase in the number of models contributing to MME prediction, particularly recently developed modelsIt shows improved skills for both temperature and precipitation predictions over most of the globe and seasons [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An analysis is presented of the precipitation bias and change signal in an ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) (RegCM4) projections driven by multiple general circulation models (GCMs) over China. RegCM4 is driven by five different GCMs for the 120‐year period 1979–2099 at 25 km grid spacing, under the representative concentration pathway RCP8.5. We find that the GCMs and RegCM4 reproduce the general spatial pattern of precipitation over China in all four seasons, with RegCM4 providing greater spatial detail, especially over areas with complex terrain. The spatial patterns of precipitation bias show common features between the GCMs and RegCM4, characterized by an underestimation in the wetter regions, and an overestimation in the drier ones. Systematic increases of precipitation are projected in northern China, most pronounced in the Northwest basins, by both the GCMs and RegCM4 in all seasons except summer, when more mixed results are found. In addition, weak correlations of the projected change patterns are found in summer between the GCMs and nested RegCM4, indicating the greater role played by the representation of local convection processes during this monsoon season. The projections across the RegCM4 experiments show higher consistency and lower spread compared to the GCM ensemble, again indicating that the nested model physics significantly modulates the change signal deriving from the GCM boundary forcing. Plain Language Summary: China is a vulnerable country to climate change due to its dense population, unbalanced social and economic development, shortage of water resources, and fragile ecosystems. How future precipitation will change over the region is of great concern for the general public and decision makers. This paper presents a first analysis of precipitation simulations from a set of five RCM (RegCM4) 21st century climate change projections, driven by coarse resolution general circulation models (GCMs) over China. We find that the spatial patterns of precipitation bias show common features between the GCMs and RegCM4, characterized by a precipitation underestimation in the wetter regions, and an overestimation in the drier ones. Systematic increases of precipitation are projected in north China by both the GCMs and RegCM4 in all seasons except summer, when, weak correlations of the projected change patterns are found between the GCMs and nested RegCM4, indicating the greater role of the representation of local convection processes during this monsoon season. The projections across the RegCM4 experiments show higher consistency and lower spread compared to the GCM ensemble, again indicating that the nested model physics significantly modulates the change signal deriving from the GCM boundary forcing. Key Points: The spatial patterns of bias show common features between the GCMs and RegCM4RegCM4 provides greater spatial detail of present day precipitation simulation compared to the GCMs and finer structures of future changesThe change patterns across the RegCM4 projections show a high correlation, but not always between each pair of driving GCM and RegCM4 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the effects of spring soil moisture (SM) anomalies in the mid‐latitudes on the atmospheric circulation in summer over the Northern Hemisphere (NH) are investigated. The results show that there are two regions of maximum interannual variability of the spring SM in the mid‐latitudes, which are located in central North America (CNA) and Europe and central Asia (ECA). In addition, the interannual variation of spring SM anomalies between CNA and ECA exhibits a seesaw pattern. The CNA–ECA seesaw pattern of the spring SM anomalies leads to the surface heat anomalies having opposite phases in CNA and ECA from spring to summer, which subsequently cause the opposite phase of baroclinicity anomalies in spring. The anomalous meridional temperature advections in spring cause the baroclinicity anomalies to have the same phase around CNA and ECA in summer. Corresponded with the same phase of baroclinicity anomalies, the anomalous centers of the stationary Rossby wave train (RWT) and Rossby wave source (RWS) have the same phase in CNA and ECA in summer. Through analysis of the vorticity budgets, the maintenance mechanism of the RWT in summer is considered as a positive feedback that anomalous meridional winds characterized by a RWT, transport the mean absolute vorticity and subsequently lead to an anomalous RWS, which in turn maintains the stationary RWT. Numerical experiments further demonstrate the effects of CNA–ECA seesaw pattern of spring SM anomalies on stationary RWT and RWS in summer. Plain Language Summary: The interannual variation of soil moisture (SM) anomalies in mid‐latitudes exhibits a seesaw pattern in central North America (CNA) and Europe and central Asia (ECA). When spring SM anomalies are negative in CNA and positive in ECA, positive (negative) sensible heat flux anomalies are observed in CNA (ECA) while negative (positive) latent heat flux anomalies are observed in CNA (ECA) from spring to summer, or vice versa. Influenced by surface heat anomalies, baroclinicity anomalies exhibit a seesaw pattern in CNA and ECA in spring, and have same phase in CNA and ECA in summer due to anomalous meridional temperature advections. The baroclinicity anomalies in CNA and ECA in summer contribute to the same variation of wave‐flow interactions. The Rossby wave train (RWT) induced and maintained by CNA–ECA seesaw pattern of spring SM anomalies in spring can be maintained by its meridional transportation of the mean absolute vorticity in summer. Apparently, spring SM anomalies in the middle latitudes can persistently influence the large‐scale atmospheric circulations over the Northern Hemisphere by maintaining RWT. Key Points: Seesaw pattern of spring soil moisture anomalies in central North America (CNA) and Europe and central Asia (ECA)Baroclinicity anomalies change from opposite to same phase in CNA and ECA during the transition from spring to summerRossby wave train induced by spring CNA–ECA seesaw pattern is maintained by its meridional mean absolute vorticity transportation in summer [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s National Water Model (NWM) provides analyses and predictions of hydrologic variables relevant to drought monitoring and forecasts at fine time and space scales (hourly, 0.25–1 km). We present results exploring the potential for NWM soil moisture and streamflow analyses to inform operational drought monitoring. Both agricultural and hydrologic drought monitoring rely either explicitly or implicitly on an accurate representation of anomalous soil moisture values. Much of our analysis focuses on comparisons of soil moisture anomalies in the NWM to those from in‐situ observations. To establish benchmarks for NWM soil moisture skill, we also include other gridded data sets currently used to inform the US Drought Monitor, specifically those from the North American Land Data Assimilation System phase 2 (NLDAS‐2) land surface models. We then compare NWM streamflow low flows with ∼500 stream gauges from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Hydro‐Climatic Data Network of undisturbed basins. The NWM soil moisture simulation's skill parallels that from NLDAS‐2. The accuracy of drought condition identification from NWM streamflow exceeds that based on soil moisture as determined by Critical Success Index scores for extreme dry percentiles. Different meteorological forcings are used in the operational NWM cycles than those used in this retrospective analysis. This forcing disconnect, together with concerns about current‐generation land surface model soil moisture‐transport schemes, inhibit its current operational use for drought monitoring. Plain Language Summary: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Water Model offers output relevant for drought monitoring. This paper evaluates the National Water Model soil moisture and streamflow with drought applications in mind, and compares those evaluations to other modeling tools currently used to inform drought monitoring. We find the model's ability to estimate anomalous low flows exceeds its ability to estimate anomalously dry soils, and discuss its current potential to inform operational drought monitoring. Key Points: Retrospective NOAA National Water Model soil moisture and streamflow were evaluated for drought‐monitoring applicationsThe National Water Model was comparable in skill to land model guidance currently used to inform the US drought monitorThe National Water Model's operational forcing strategy currently limits its application for real‐time drought monitoring [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The discovery of smoke‐induced dynamical anomalies in the stratosphere associated with the 2019/2020 Australian New Year pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) super outbreak initiated a new field of study involving aerosol/weather anomalies. This paper documents the dynamical anomalies associated with the February 2009 Australian Black Saturday pyroCb outbreak. Positive potential vorticity anomalies (indicating anticyclonic rotation) with horizontal extent ∼1000 km and vertical thickness ∼2 km are associated with the plume, which we classify as a Smoke With Induced Rotation and Lofting (SWIRL). The SWIRL initially formed east of Australia, but then moved westward, crossing over Australia, and continuing to Africa. The SWIRL lasted for nearly three weeks (13 February–4 March), traveling ∼27,000 km and rising from potential temperatures of ∼410–500 K (altitudes ∼18–21 km). The altitude of the SWIRL is corroborated with coincident satellite‐based profiles of H2O, CO, HCN, O3, and aerosol extinction. A vertical temperature dipole (±3 K) accompanied the PV anomaly, as verified with coincident Global Navigation Satellite System radio occultation temperatures. The SWIRL dissipated as it passed over Africa. Operational ECMWF forecasts with early initialization (13 February) and late initialization (21 February) are examined. In the early case, the forecasted PV anomaly disappeared within 4 days, as expected due to lack of smoke heating in the forecast model. In the late case, while the forecasted PV anomaly was weaker than in the reanalyzes, a remnant anomaly remained out to 10 days. Plain Language Summary: Large bushfires in February 2009 in Australia led to large thunderstorms called pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) that injected significant amounts of smoke high into the atmosphere. When this smoke was warmed by absorbing sunlight it became buoyant and started to rise and rotate. This feature has been named a Smoke With Induced Rotation and Lofting (SWIRL) and had previously been observed in large pyroCbs that occurred around New Year's Day 2020 and in Canadian fires that occurred in 2017. The February 2009 SWIRL was a pancake‐like structure 1000 km across and 2 km thick. It lasted for three weeks, traveling over 27,000 km, and rising from 18 to 21 km in altitude. The SWIRL was observed both in weather maps and in satellite observations of gases such as water vapor, carbon monoxide, and ozone. Forecasting the SWIRL is difficult because current numerical weather models either do not consider smoke heating or lack inputs of pyroCb events as they are occurring in real time. Key Points: The February 2009 Australian Black Saturday pyroCbs injected a smoke plume into the stratosphere that induced a mesoscale anticycloneThe anticyclone was 1000 km across and 2 km thick and traveled 27,000 km in three weeks as it rose from 18 to 21 km in altitudeSatellite trace gas and aerosol anomalies coincide with potential vorticity anomalies, confirming smoke‐induced dynamical perturbations [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Turbulence in very stable boundary layers is typically unsteady and intermittent. The study implements a stochastic modeling approach to represent unsteady mixing possibly associated with intermittency of turbulence and with unresolved fluid motions such as dirty waves or drainage flows. The stochastic parameterization is introduced by randomizing the mixing lengthscale used in a Reynolds average Navier‐Stokes (RANS) model with turbulent kinetic energy closure, resulting in a stochastic unsteady RANS model. The randomization alters the turbulent momentum diffusion and accounts for sporadic events of possibly unknown origin that cause unsteady mixing. The paper shows how the proposed stochastic parameterization can be integrated into a RANS model used in weather‐forecasting and its impact is analyzed using neutrally and stably stratified idealized numerical case studies. The simulations show that the framework can successfully model intermittent mixing in stably stratified conditions, and does not alter the representation of neutrally stratified conditions. It could thus present a way forward for dealing with the complexities of unsteady flows in numerical weather prediction or climate models. Plain Language Summary: Limited computer resources lead to a simplified representation of unresolved small‐scale processes in weather forecasting and climate models, through parameterization schemes. Among the parameterized processes, turbulent fluxes exert a critical impact on the exchange of heat, water and carbon between the land and the atmosphere. Turbulence theory was, however, developed for homogeneous and flat terrain, with stationary conditions. At nighttime or in cold environment, turbulence is typically non‐stationary, weak and intermittent and the classical theory fails. Part of the intermittent mixing is due to turbulence enhancement by small‐scale wind variability. In the following, a random modeling approach is used to enhance turbulent mixing due to small‐scale wind variability and intermittency of mixing. The proposed approach is shown to be a viable approach to represent the effect of small‐scale variability of mixing for different atmospheric flow conditions. Key Points: A stochastic parameterization of turbulence is implemented in a Reynolds average Navier‐Stokes (RANS) model to represent unsteady mixingThe introduced stochastic perturbations of the mixing length enable the simulation of intermittent turbulence in the stable boundary layerThe stochastic unsteady RANS model does not alter the simulation of neutral conditions [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A new satellite observation concept to estimate upward air mass flux in convective storms has been proposed using a convoy of small radars that measure reflectivity only. The approach is to analyze a pair of radar reflectivity profiles obtained within 30–120 s of one another, and infer the upward transport above the freezing level and at a nominal 3‐km horizontal resolution from the reflectivities and their temporal change. This paper summarizes the theoretical basis for this approach, with quantitative justification using sensitivity analyses of convection‐permitting model simulations and from ground‐based zenith profiler data. We then describe and quantify the performance of the approach to detect updrafts from the radar observations. Finally, we illustrate the expected performance of retrievals of the vertical transport and evaluate their ability to meet the objectives of the "Investigation into Convective Updrafts" mission, selected by NASA to place in orbit in 2027–2028 a convoy of three identical Ka‐band radars measuring radar reflectivity within their common swath. Plain Language Summary: This paper describes a new concept to measure the vertical transport in updrafts in convective storms, from space, using pairs of small radars that measure radar reflectivity only. The paper first presents the theoretical relation between the evolution of reflectivity from the time of the first radar observation to the time of the last (up to 2 min later), on one hand, and the underlying vertical velocities in the updraft. The paper then demonstrates the forward‐sensitivity of reflectivity, under the practical radar constraints, to the vertical velocities. And finally the paper demonstrates the ability to invert this forward sensitivity and produce retrievals of vertical velocity with low uncertainty. Key Points: A new satellite observation concept to estimate air mass transport in convective updrafts is explainedIt is shown that chronological sequences of radar reflectivities are sensitive to the characteristics of vertical transportIt is shown how the characteristics of the vertical transport can be derived from the radar observations [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric electricity parameters (AEP) measurements from Antarctica predominantly feature either the potential gradient (PG) and/or air‐Earth current (AEC) density. We report for the first time simultaneous measurements of the bipolar ions concentration/conductivity, PG, and AEC density. AEP measurements were carried out at Maitri (70.8°S, 11.8°E) from December 2018 to November 2019. We formulated a few criteria, irrespective of the weather conditions, to select the electrically quiet days and some additional criteria based on the conductivity measurements to discern globally representative data (GRD) from such days. The measurements of the PG and AEC density over the Antarctic plateau demonstrated the diurnal curves similar to the Carnegie pattern, which represents the global thunderstorms and electrified shower clouds (ESCs) occurring on different continents and oceans, we regard the data having such trend as GRD. We found significant variability in the concentration of small bipolar ions/conductivity in the austral summer which in turn affects GRD. However, the concentration of bipolar ions is nearly consistent at ∼250 negative ions cm−3 and ∼300 positive ions cm−3 in winter and enhances the probability of GRD. Such differences can arise out of the prevalent planetary boundary layer processes in the two seasons. When the PG varied between ∼50 Vm−1 and ∼150 Vm−1 and the maximum range of conductivity variations was ∼0.2 × 10−14 ℧ m−1, the AEPs represented the signatures of the global thunderstorm and ESC activities. Plain Language Summary: Monitoring of the atmospheric electricity parameters is a simple technique to monitor global thunderstorm activity and electrified shower clouds. For this, the data need to be free from local disturbances. Obtaining such data in Antarctic Plateau was found to be successful. On the other hand, the coastal Antarctic stations, experience local or regional contributions in it. This paper attempts to provide some techniques to obtain globally representative data (GRD). This paper suggests that the diurnal variation of the concentration of bipolar small ions strongly impacts the GRD. Therefore a day free from the diurnal variation of the concentration of bipolar ions is essential to discern the global signals. The winter season appears to be a better season for this as the summer season experiences mild convection activity that causes local and regional electrical signals that contaminate the data. Key Points: Atmospheric electrical conductivity is the key parameter to discern globally representative data (GRD) over the Maitri, AntarcticaGRD is discernible on a day when conductivity is consistent, and such days are most common in local winterIn the austral summer, the planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes produce local electrical signals that interfere with the global signals [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The editorial board of JGR Atmospheres thanks reviewers who refereed papers in 2022. Plain Language Summary: The editorial board of JGR Atmospheres thanks reviewers who refereed papers in 2022. Key Point: The editors thank the 2022 peer reviewers [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Black carbon (BC) absorbs solar radiation, increasing the buoyancy and vertical ascent of absorbing aerosol in the atmosphere. This self‐lofting process has been observed for individual plumes in the troposphere and lower stratosphere but here we show it occurring at broader scales through enhanced large‐scale ascent over BC‐rich regions. This is demonstrated in a pair of simulation using the UKESM1 Earth‐System model where BC aerosols were modeled either with or without the ability to absorb radiation. With absorption included the annual global mean concentration of BC in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (8–22 km) rose by up to 50% and the column loading over some remote oceanic regions more than doubled. The increase in aerosol height was particularly notable over the southeast Atlantic where biomass burning aerosol from Africa was elevated up to 1 km higher when their absorption was included. Similar effects were seen over the Arctic where the absorbing haze was transported in at higher levels and surface concentrations were halved. The absorption by BC also increased ascent over southern Asia, which tended to thicken the Asian brown cloud during the dry season but in the wet season enhancing ascent promoted deep convection and had the tendency to deplete the aerosol through wash‐out. We conclude that representing aerosol absorption accurately is important in simulating the vertical distribution, transport and abundance of aerosol in the Earth‐system that will affect their interactions with climate. Plain Language Summary: Black carbon is an important component of atmospheric aerosols as it absorbs solar radiation thereby heating the atmosphere and potentially warming climate. The localized heating can also affect clouds and atmospheric motions making the regional and climate effects more complex and uncertain. The vertical distribution and geographic spread of the aerosol is also key to how it interacts with the climate system. In this paper we highlight the fact that the absorption taking place in BC aerosols can affect its vertical ascent in the atmosphere and therefore how it becomes distributed across the globe. This self‐lofting process was demonstrated in a climate model and was particularly important in aiding the elevation and downwind transport of absorbing smoke layers from regions such as central Africa, as well as increasing the amount of BC reaching the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Key Points: Absorption of solar radiation helps to raise the altitude of black carbon aerosol by increasing buoyancy and vertical ascentThis self‐lofting mechanism has been captured in a climate model where radiative heating affects the large‐scale ascent and circulationSelf‐lofting increased the altitude and long‐range transport of black carbon to remote regions and the upper troposphere [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Entrainment and mixing play an essential role in shaping the droplet size distribution (DSD), with commensurate effects on cloud radiative properties or precipitation formation. In this paper, we use a model that considers all relevant scales related to entrainment and mixing by employing the linear eddy model (LEM) as a subgrid‐scale (SGS) mixing model, coupled with a large‐eddy simulation model and a Lagrangian cloud model (LCM) for a single cumulus congestus cloud. We confirm that the DSD is broadened toward small‐size droplets during homogeneous mixing. During inhomogeneous mixing, the DSD width remains almost unchanged. The DSD width can also be narrowed after mixing. We show that this happens when DSD is broadened toward small‐size droplets, which evaporate rapidly, while larger droplets are almost unaffected. In addition, when droplets ascend during mixing, DSD narrowing is caused when the adiabatic increase in supersaturation is slower than the average droplet evaporation, allowing only the largest droplets to benefit from the newly produced supersaturation. The narrowing mixing scenario prevents clouds from having too broad DSDs and causes the DSD relative dispersion to converge around 0.2 to 0.4. As this scenario is more frequent when the LEM SGS model is used, our results indicate that adequately modeling turbulent mixing is necessary to represent a realistic DSD shape. Plain Language Summary: Clouds are always in contact with the surrounding air. Because the air outside the cloud is drier than the cloud, cloud droplets tend to evaporate when it enters the cloud. The size of the cloud droplets after evaporation can vary depending on the timescales of turbulent mixing and droplet evaporation. If the dry air mixes quickly, all droplets evaporate simultaneously. If the dry air is mixed slowly, only the droplets exposed to the dry air evaporate. However, this mixing occurs on small scales that traditional cloud models cannot account for. To account for this, we use a special model capable of representing all relevant scales. We confirm previous theoretical work that when mixing is fast, all droplets evaporate and the mean droplet size decreases. When mixing is slow, some droplets evaporate completely, but the average droplet size remains constant. We also observe cases where only small droplets evaporate while large droplets barely change. This scenario happens when there are many small droplets to evaporate or when additional moisture from cloud motion prevents larger droplets from evaporating completely. Key Points: Changes in the droplet spectrum width under different mixing scenarios are investigated using a Lagrangian cloud modelWhile droplet spectrum broadening is common, narrowing occurs when the droplet size relative dispersion is large, or when droplets ascendThe interaction of these different mixing scenarios favors a relative dispersion of the droplet spectrum between 0.2 and 0.4 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The growth of the marine internal boundary layer (MIBL, height hi) with the shore‐normal distance x, is a topic of continuing interest because of its applications in coastal pollution dispersion, offshore wind farm siting, coastal air‐sea fluxes and in evaporative ducting. Available data on MIBL are scarce, given the difficulty of measuring the variability of coastal winds. During the Coupled Air‐Sea Processes and Electromagnetic Research campaigns, an array of instrumentation was deployed to measure offshore spatial variability and its effect on electromagnetic (EM) wave propagation. Meteorological sensors (flux towers and remote sensing) deployed along the coast of Point Mugu, California, on a research vessel and FLoating Instrument Platform provided surface layer and boundary layer observations. Measurements from multiple remote sensors such as synchronized triple Doppler lidars, small boat operations with tethered lifting system, and radiosondes provided a holistic view of the MIBL growth and its spatial variability in coastal areas. Convective and stable MIBL observed during two intensive operating period days showed distinct growth characteristics off the coast of Point‐Mugu. During stable stratified atmospheric conditions, an MIBL was observed to develop least as far as 47 km from the coast. The growth of MIBL within the nearshore adjustment zone was influenced by surrounding atmospheric, oceanographic, and topographic conditions. A parameterization scheme is developed based on advection‐diffusion balance equations, accounting for upstream turbulence, and compared with hi observations from a Doppler lidar and profiles taken from a small boat. An evaluation of existing IBL theories is also conducted. Plain Language Summary: Internal boundary layers (IBLs) in coastal areas can result in increased turbulence within the lowest few hundred meters, which can impact various atmospheric processes and directly influence coastal cities (by increased pollution, electromagnetic propagation and impact on offshore wind turbines). Although a very well known phenomena, the research community lacks high‐resolution data to characterize some of the local effects accurately. In this article, measurements from a field campaign within the Santa Barbara Channel were used to study the evolution of two IBL cases. The variability of the IBL near the coast and associated physical processes governing the variability are discussed in the manuscript. A new equation to better characterize the growth of the IBL is also presented. Key Points: Novel observations of offshore internal boundary during a convective and stable atmospheric conditions is presentedA modified model for rough‐to‐smooth transition internal boundary layers (IBLs) is presented in this paper for unstable, neutral, and stable boundary layer conditionsDuring both IBL cases, the evolution of IBL height was constrained by enhancement of atmospheric stability offshore, wind veer, horizontal shear, and inversion height [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Past studies have demonstrated that synoptically active weather systems play an important role in the spatial and temporal variations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) within and above the planetary boundary layer. For the first time, we investigate the spatial variability of column‐averaged dry‐air mole fractions of CO2 ${\mathrm{C}\mathrm{O}}_{2}$ (i.e.,XCO2 $\mathrm{i}.\mathrm{e}.,{\mathrm{X}\mathrm{C}\mathrm{O}}_{2}$) due to the impact of synoptic scale transport using retrievals from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory‐2 (OCO‐2) for 66 summer cold front passage cases over the conterminous U.S. and Mexico from 2015 to 2019. XCO2 ${\mathrm{X}\mathrm{C}\mathrm{O}}_{2}$ differences across cold fronts in summer were found to be in good agreement with observations obtained from the Atmospheric Carbon and Transport (ACT‐America) field campaign, though with a reduced magnitude due the flat averaging kernel representing fairly uniform vertical sensitivity in the troposphere as opposed to in situ CO2 ${\mathrm{C}\mathrm{O}}_{2}$ measurements. OCO‐2 observed XCO2 ${\mathrm{X}\mathrm{C}\mathrm{O}}_{2}$ frontal differences are statistically distinct from north‐south XCO2 ${\mathrm{X}\mathrm{C}\mathrm{O}}_{2}$ climatological spatial variations on similar spatial‐scales on synoptically benign days, implying that the frontal passages contribute to enhanced XCO2 ${\mathrm{X}\mathrm{C}\mathrm{O}}_{2}$ spatial contrasts. An exploratory analysis finds no evidence of a linkage between the temperature differences and XCO2 ${\mathrm{X}\mathrm{C}\mathrm{O}}_{2}$ differences, but a more thorough exploration is left as future work. Plain Language Summary: Atmospheric CO2 ${\mathrm{C}\mathrm{O}}_{2}$ is one of the main contributors to climate change among the various long‐lived greenhouse gases. The spatial distributions of atmospheric CO2 ${\mathrm{C}\mathrm{O}}_{2}$ may change abruptly on short time scales (e.g., hours or less) and gradually on long time scales (e.g., years or longer). Due to weather, there are several mechanisms for atmospheric CO2 ${\mathrm{C}\mathrm{O}}_{2}$ spatial redistribution, for example, the advection of upwind sources and/or sinks. In this paper, we explore the spatial CO2 ${\mathrm{C}\mathrm{O}}_{2}$ differences related to summer cold fronts. We collect 66 summer cold fronts as seen from NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory‐2 over the CONUS and north Mexico between 2015 and 2019. The results suggest that the column‐averaged CO2 ${\mathrm{C}\mathrm{O}}_{2}$ (XCO2 ${\mathrm{X}\mathrm{C}\mathrm{O}}_{2}$) differences across these 66 summer cold fronts are statistically distinct from the climatological XCO2 ${\mathrm{X}\mathrm{C}\mathrm{O}}_{2}$ north‐south gradients. The summer cold‐front‐relative contrasts between warm and cold sectors can provide a reference for models in simulating the horizontal advection, source, and/or sink changes in the synoptic weather. Key Points: XCO2 ${\mathrm{X}\mathrm{C}\mathrm{O}}_{2}$ retrievals from Orbiting Carbon Observatory‐2 (OCO‐2) exhibit enhanced contrasts across cold fronts in the conterminous US during 2015–2019 summers, with larger XCO2 ${\mathrm{X}\mathrm{C}\mathrm{O}}_{2}$ values in the warm sectors than the cold sectorsAnalyses reveal that OCO‐2 observed transient XCO2 ${\mathrm{X}\mathrm{C}\mathrm{O}}_{2}$ frontal contrasts that were greater than climatological XCO2 ${\mathrm{X}\mathrm{C}\mathrm{O}}_{2}$ spatial differences on days without cold fronts in the CONUS in summers during the period 2015‐2019 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the highest peak on the earth, Mt. Qomolangma provides an unparalleled platform to study glacier‐atmosphere interaction. Although glacier surface energy balance (SEB) on Mt. Qomolangma was examined during warm season, relevant knowledge during cold season is still unknown, which prevents a complete understanding of all‐season glacier SEB on it. Based on an in‐situ observation from October 2007 to January 2008, this study presents a cold‐season glacier SEB result at 6,523 m above sea level on Mt. Qomolangma and identifies its atmospheric control. Our results show that the observational period experienced strong winds and deficient clouds. Near‐surface wind speeds usually exceeded 10 m s−1, resulting in a substantial sensible heat transport toward glacier and thus enhancing outgoing longwave radiation, which, under the combined effect of deficient clouds, eventually caused an increase in longwave radiative loss. The large solar zenith angle and relatively high albedo of the glacier surface led to a small absorption of solar irradiance, which, in combination with the strong longwave radiation loss, resulted in a semi‐permanent surface radiative loss. Uncommon over the highly reflective glacier surface, clouds decreased the incident solar radiation more than increased the longwave radiation, demonstrating that the clouds' shading effect surpassed its greenhouse effect. As a vital heat sink, the turbulent latent heat induced an average sublimation rate of 0.8 mm water equivalent per day. This study provides valuable insights into the atmospheric control on the cold‐season glacier‐atmosphere interaction at high altitudes on Mt. Qomolangma when meteorological variables are subject to the westerlies. Plain Language Summary: Mt. Qomolangma is the highest mountain on the earth. Qomolangma's glacier retreat is a warning sign for rapid climate warming. Understanding the atmospheric control on Qomolangma's glacier mass loss is critical. This paper thoroughly examines how the energy associated with Qomolangma's glacier mass loss at 6523 m above sea level was governed in the cold season. We find that wind speed is an important factor. On one hand, its increase enhanced the energy input toward glacier, increasing surface temperature and thus letting more energy escape from glacier surface under the combined influence of small cloud cover; on the other hand, the increase in wind speed enhanced the mass loss of sublimation, lowering surface temperature. Cloud cover is another factor. The clouds' shading effect of decreasing incoming sunlight surpassed its greenhouse effect of increasing energy toward glacier, making less energy arriving at the glacier surface and thus decreasing mass loss. Additionally, at the highly reflective glacier surface, glacier received weak sunlight in cold season because a significant portion of the relatively modest incoming sunlight was reflected to the sky. These results provide valuable insights into the atmospheric control on Qomolangma's glacier mass loss in the cold season. Key Points: We present 3.5 months of autumn and wintertime glacier surface energy balance at 6,523 m above sea level on Mt. QomolangmaThere was a semi‐permanent surface radiative loss due to deficient clouds, large solar zenith angle, and high albedo of glacier surfaceClouds reduced solar irradiance more than increased longwave radiation, implying that their shading effect surpassed the greenhouse effect [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Low‐level jets (LLJs) drive frequent emission of mineral dust in the central and western Sahara in boreal summer. A major hotspot for this process is central Algeria, northern Mali and Mauritania, through which blow the dry near‐surface northeasterly Harmattan winds, with a peak in dust emission around the low‐lying Tidihelt region. North African orography is thought to contribute to the strength of the LLJ over the Bodele dust source in Chad, but its influence on erosivity over summertime source regions remains unquantified. In this paper, the contribution of central Saharan orography to the strength of Harmattan LLJs and associated dust emission frequency is tested. An idealized simulation with flattened Hoggar mountains is compared with a control using the Met Office Unified Model at 12 km horizontal resolution. In the absence of the Hoggar mountains, dust emission frequency estimated using an empirical relationship with surface wind speeds is found to decline across the entire northeasterly "LLJ alley," including by 31% in the Tidihelt where composited jet surface winds drop from 9.0 to 7.3 m s−1 under a more easterly regime. The mountains are linked to a low‐level leeward geopotential height perturbation, with a northern limb reinforcing northeasterlies through the Tidihelt. Dome‐shaped elevated heating situated over the Hoggar mountains explains the difference between the simulated wind fields in the two experiments. These findings suggest that central Saharan orography plays an important role in sustaining erosive dusty conditions during boreal summer. Plain Language Summary: A major driver of dust storms in the central and western Sahara is a strong wind (referred to as a jet) which forms overnight at elevation and then hits the surface after sunrise. This process is important in the remote central Algerian Tidihelt region, home to a highly active dust source. In this paper we estimate the effect that the nearby Hoggar mountains have upon strong wind events in the Tidihelt during summer. We do this by comparing two computer model simulations of the atmosphere over North Africa. One has a realistic representation of the Hoggar mountains, whereas in the other the mountains are flattened to a uniform level. Our results show that the mountains strengthen these winds by heating the atmosphere relative to the surrounding desert, producing a local region of low pressure. Using satellite observations of dust plumes we estimate that without the mountains the frequency of dust emission events from the Tidihelt would be reduced by about a third due to weaker winds. The findings show how mountains can play an important role in the meteorology responsible for dust storms. Key Points: A model experiment is used to test the impact of the Hoggar mountains on dust emission frequency in the SaharaThe mountains generate a leeward low due to elevated heatingRemoving the mountains reduces emission frequency in the highly active Tidihelt by 31% [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Deep Blue (DB) aerosol retrieval algorithm has recently been applied to Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data to produce a first version (V001) of a global aerosol optical thickness (AOT) data set. In this paper, we critically evaluate these AVHRR AOT data over China by comparison with ground‐based reference data from China Aerosol Remote Sensing Network for the period 2006–2011. The evaluation considers the impact of the surface (type and reflectance) and the aerosol properties (aerosol loading, aerosol absorption) on the quality of the retrieved AOT. We also compare the AVHRR‐retrieved AOT with that from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer over major aerosol source regions in China. We further consider seasonal variations and find, in general, a good agreement between AVHRR AOT and the reference data sets. The AVHRR retrieval algorithm performs well over dark vegetated surfaces, but over bright surfaces (e.g., desert regions) the results are less good. The AVHRR algorithm underestimates the AOT, with 32.1% of the values lower than the estimated error envelope of ±0.05 ± 0.25τ. In particular over the desert, the AVHRR‐retrieved AOT is frequently underestimated and for AOT ≤ 0.6 the values are on average 0.05 too low due to the pixel filtering, and dust storms are missed. The comparison of the AVHRR AOT with MODIS collection 6 and CARSNET data indicates that improvements are needed for, for example, AVHRR calibration and cloud/aerosol flagging. The analysis presented in this paper contributes to a better understanding of the AVHRR AOT product over China. Key Points: The 53.5% of the AOT values are within the estimated error envelop of ±0.05 ± 0.25τThe AVHRR‐retrieved AOT is frequently underestimated over the desert regionsAOT biases at 550 and 660 nm are −0.057 and −0.093, respectively [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This is a summary of the papers published in the Special Section titled "Fast Physics in Climate Models: Parameterization, Evaluation, and Observation" (https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/toc/10.1002/(ISSN)2169‐8996.FASTPHYS1), as requested by the JGR‐Atmosphere Chief Editor, Professor Minghua Zhang. Key Points: Motivation for this special section is presentedPapers in this special issue are summarizedFuture challenges facing fast physics in climate models are discussed [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Intracloud (IC) lightning flashes are normally initiated below 10 km and start with upward negative leaders. In this paper, we report a special type of IC flash called "downward positive IC (+IC) flash" which is initiated at high altitudes (mainly above 12 km) and whose initial negative leaders do not propagate upward. Three‐dimensional location results of three downward +IC flashes are described in detail. It is demonstrated that downward +IC flashes start with positive leaders propagating downward with speeds on the order of 104 m/s and negative leaders propagating horizontally for only a short distance. Downward +IC flashes are produced in thunderstorms with deep convective updrafts (radar echoes of cloud tops typically higher than 14 km). The charge structure responsible for downward +IC flashes is inferred to be a positive dipole including a negative charge region at a normal altitude (near the −10 °C isotherm) and an upper positive charge region at a relatively high altitude (usually above the −50 °C isotherm), with downward +IC flashes likely initiated from the upper positive charge region. Further, lightning flashes in a thunderstorm producing a large number of downward +IC flashes are analyzed. Results show that normal IC flashes in this thunderstorm are also initiated at altitudes closer to the upper positive charge region and usually consist of downward positive leaders propagating for longer distances than upward negative leaders. Based on these results, we propose a relationship between the altitude of the upper positive charge region and initiation locations of IC flashes. Plain Language Summary: Intracloud (IC) lightning flashes are normally initiated below 10 km. In this paper, we report a special type of IC flash called the "downward positive IC (+IC) flash" which is initiated at high altitudes (mainly above 12 km). The structure of downward +IC flashes is distinctly different from that of normal IC flashes. Downward +IC flashes are produced in vigorous thunderstorms with cloud tops higher than 14 km. However, downward +IC flashes tend to produce weak radiation in radio frequencies, rendering them difficult to detect. This may be the reason that downward +IC flashes have never been reported before. Key Points: A type of special IC flash initiated at high altitudes (>12 km) called "downward +IC flash" is reported for the first timeDownward +IC flashes are dominated by downward positive leadersDownward +IC flashes are produced in thunderstorms with deep convective updrafts (cloud tops higher than 14 km) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on fast electric field waveforms of the Low‐frequency E‐field Detection Array (LFEDA), we introduce the time reversal technique into lightning three‐dimensional location for the first time and propose a new algorithm for the three‐dimensional location of lightning low‐frequency discharges. Without using complex filtering algorithms to remove higher‐frequency component, this method obtains similar results to the newly reported LFEDA refinement algorithm. The new algorithm can obtain finer, more continuous, and richer positioning results with a minimum of four stations, 5‐dB signal‐to‐noise ratio, and 500‐ns time error compared with the low‐frequency signal time of arrival three‐dimensional positioning method. These results indicate that the new algorithm has the advantages of low requirements on the number of stations, certain anti‐interference ability, and low requirements on time accuracy. The standard deviations in the X and Y directions for return strokes of triggered lightning flashes are both approximately 90 m. Plain Language Summary: During the last 20 years, besides the location of return stroke, finer and more accurate positioning of total lightning based on lightning low‐frequency discharge signals can be achieved by using the time of arrival method. The Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences developed a lightning Low‐frequency E‐field Detection Array (LFEDA), consisting of ten substations in Conghua, Guangzhou, since 2014, which is capable of determining the three‐dimensional locations of lightning discharge events. With the application of empirical mode decomposition algorithm in the past research of LFEDA, the fine structure of lightning channel can be obtained. This paper proposes a new lightning low‐frequency discharge three‐dimensional location algorithm based on the multistation waveform data of the LFEDA system. This is the first time that the time reversal method has been applied to total lightning three‐dimensional location. This method can obtain accurate lightning three‐dimensional location results without using a complex filtering algorithm. Compared with the time of arrival method, the new algorithm not only can yield positioning results similar to those of the fine positioning algorithm (Fan et al., 2018, https://doi.org/10.1029/2017jd028249) but also has the advantages of low requirements on the number of stations, certain anti‐interference ability, and low requirements on time accuracy. Key Points: A new method based on time reversal technique is proposed for the three‐dimensional location of lightning low‐frequency dischargesThe method has the advantages of low requirements on the number of stations and time accuracy and certain anti‐interference abilityThe method can achieve fine positioning results, and the standard deviations in X and Y directions for return strokes are approximately 90 m [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present in this paper an extension of the guided‐wave M‐component model of Rakov et al. considering the presence of a vertically elevated strike object. The tall object is represented as a lossless, uniform transmission line. Expressions for the current distribution along the channel and along the strike object are derived. Simulation results for the electric field at close (100 m), intermediate (15 km), and far (100 km) distance ranges are presented, considering fast and slow M‐component currents. The results show that, for very tall structures and fast M‐component waves, the presence of a tall strike object can result in a sharp peak superimposed on the M‐component electric field at intermediate and far distance ranges (e.g., 15 and 100 km). At close distances, the electric field of a fast M‐component is characterized by an initial negative excursion followed by a polarity change. It is shown that the presence of the tower results in a decrease of the negative initial excursion of the field. For slow M‐component waveforms or for moderately tall structures, the presence of the tall strike object can be disregarded in the M‐component field calculations. A discussion on the influence of the M‐wave channel height and velocity on the electric fields for fast M‐component currents is also presented. The study suggests a noticeable effect of the M‐wave velocity on the electric fields at all distance ranges. The variations of the wave velocity and channel length affect the time of appearance of the superimposed sharp peak on the electric fields. However, the sharp peak magnitude, which is due to the presence of the tower, is independent of the channel length and wave velocity. It is determined by the injected current and the reflection coefficients from the ground and tower top. Key Points: We propose an extension of the guided‐wave M‐component model of Rakov et al. considering the presence of a vertically elevated strike objectFor very tall structures and fast M‐component waves, the presence of a tall strike object can result in a sharp peak superimposed on the M‐component electric field at intermediate and far distance rangesThe superimposed sharp peak amplitude is independent of the channel length and the wave velocity, while its arrival time is affected by the channel length and the wave velocity [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Asian tropopause aerosol layer (ATAL) has emerged in recent decades with aerosol accumulation near tropopause above Asian Summer Monsoon region. Although ATAL effects on surface and top‐of‐atmosphere (TOA) radiation budgets are well established, the magnitude and variability of ATAL effects on radiative transfer within the tropopause layer remain poorly constrained. Here, we investigate the impacts of various aerosol types and layer structures on clear‐sky shortwave radiative heating in the Asian monsoon tropopause layer using reanalysis products and offline radiative transfer simulations. ATAL effects on shortwave radiative heating based on the Modern‐Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 aerosol reanalysis are on the order of 15% of mean clear‐sky radiative heating within the tropopause layer, although discrepancies among recent reanalysis and forecast products suggest that this ratio could be as small as ∼10% or as large as ∼70%. Uncertainties in surface and TOA flux effects are also large, with values spanning one order of magnitude at the TOA. ATAL effects on radiative heating peak between 150 and 80 hPa (360–400 K potential temperature) along the southern flank of the anticyclone. Clear‐sky and all‐sky shortwave heating are at local minima in this vertical range, which is situated between the positive influences of monsoon‐enhanced water vapor and the negative influence of the "ozone valley" in the monsoon lower stratosphere. ATAL effects also extend further toward the west, where diabatic vertical velocities remain upward despite descent in pressure coordinates. Plain Language Summary: Every summer, a layer of polluted air laden with aerosol particles collects above the convective storms of the Asian monsoon as part of a broad upper‐level circulation centered over the Tibetan Plateau. Researchers have developed a working understanding of how the dynamical environment shapes this Asian tropopause aerosol layer (ATAL). The motivating question for this work is: How might the aerosol layer reshape its environment? Aerosols can absorb and scatter sunlight, affecting both the amount of sunlight transmitted through the layer and the magnitude of solar heating within the layer. These effects depend on aerosol species and their vertical distribution within the layer, both of which are highly variable. In this paper, we translate variations and uncertainties in the amount, composition, and vertical distribution of aerosols near the Asian monsoon tropopause into variations and uncertainties in the absorption and scattering of solar radiation by the aerosol layer. We find that aerosols account for a substantial part (10%–70%) of heating by solar radiation near the tropopause in the region of ATAL. The vertical location and horizontal extent of the aerosol effects are distinct from those of other radiative effects. Key Points: The Asian tropopause aerosol layer produces a 10%–70% direct enhancement of clear‐sky shortwave heating above the summer monsoonEffects are largest where shortwave heating is weakest, with similar magnitudes to water vapor and ozone effects near the monsoon tropopauseDiscrepancies across recent aerosol analysis and forecast products cause large uncertainties in aerosol forcing of heating and fluxes [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spatial pattern of intermodel spread of surface temperature (TS‐SPREAD) is similar to the absolute error of modeled surface temperature relative to observations, implying the possibility of using intermodel spread to understand the model biases. The regions with maximum TS‐SPREAD are located in the northern polar (NP) and southern polar (SP) regions, and regions with the large orographic features, such as the Tibetan Plateau (TP). We find: (a) Winter amplification exists in the TS‐SPREAD over both the NP and SP regions, but the maximum TS‐SPREAD over the TP happens during spring and summer with weak seasonality there. (b) Surface energy balance analyses show salient land‐sea contrast in the interlinkage between the physical processes. (c) Over the Arctic Ocean and the Southern Ocean, the maximum spreads of sea‐ice‐induced surface albedo appear during summer when the TS‐SPREADs are the weakest because the effect of surface albedo is offset by the heat storage in the oceans. (d) Through the interseasonal linkage of the heat storage term, i.e., the summer‐storing‐winter‐releasing of oceanic heat content, the summer surface albedo may indirectly contribute to the winter amplification of the TS‐SPREAD over the polar oceans. Such interseasonal linkage of the processes does not exist over the land areas. A method of distinguishing the roles of the local and nonlocal dynamical processes in the contribution of the clear‐sky downward longwave radiation to the TS‐SPREAD is also provided. Plain Language Summary: Understanding the origin of climate model biases is essential to the projection of future climate change, and it is very hard task for the climate modeling community. Here, we show that there exists similarity in the spatial patterns of the intermodel spread, mean absolute errors, and absolute mean errors of surface temperature simulations in climate ensembles. Therefore, we may use the intermodel spread to help understand the mean model biases. We find the regions with maximum surface temperature spread (TS‐SPREAD) are mainly located in the northern polar (NP) and southern polar (SP) regions, and regions with large orographic feature, such as the Tibetan Plateau, indicating the polar and topographic amplifications of TS‐SPREAD in climate models. In the paper, we reveal the process‐chains that lead to the spatial pattern and seasonality of amplified TS‐SPREAD over these regions. We suggest that sea‐ice contributes to the TS‐SPREAD over the NP and SP oceans, not in a direct way, but by its coupling with ocean storage, interseasonal heat release through turbulent fluxes, and also the horizontal heat transport, both across the border of and inside the polar regions. The findings may help climate modelers to improve their models. Key Points: The pattern‐similarity among intermodel spread, mean absolute bias, and absolute mean bias enable us to use the former to understand the latter twoThe interseasonal linkage between surface albedo, heat storage, turbulent fluxes, and dynamical transport causes winter amplification over polar oceansA method is provided to determine the local versus nonlocal contributions to surface downward longwave radiation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The quasi 5‐day wave (Q5DW) with zonal wavenumber 1 is a dominant planetary wave (PW) oscillation in the polar summer mesospheric temperature and polar mesospheric cloud (PMC) fields. In this paper, the Q5DW signal derived from 16 years (2007–2022) of Microwave Limb Sounder temperature observations is used to investigate the role of this PW mode on the onset of PMC seasons in the northern hemisphere (NH). PMC data from the Cloud Imaging and Particle Size (CIPS) instrument during this time indicates that NH PMC season onsets ranged from 15 to 28 May, with earliest onsets in 2013, 2015, 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022. Except 2013 and 2022, the other four earlier onsets were also characterized by enhanced Q5DW activity. The wave amplification appears to be driven by baroclinic instability arising from the negative meridional gradient of potential vorticity in the high‐latitude summer mesosphere. CIPS data show that when the Q5DW was present at the beginning of the season, clouds formed preferentially in the cold troughs of the wave. We thus propose that the much colder troughs due to enhanced Q5DW activity in mid‐May of 2015, 2019, 2020, and 2021 influenced the timing of PMC onset in these years. While the 11‐year solar cycle, inter‐ and intra‐hemispheric coupling due to gravity wave and PW activity have been shown to contribute to earlier onset of PMC seasons in the NH, our analysis suggests that enhanced Q5DW activity also plays a major role. Plain Language Summary: The quasi 5‐day wave (Q5DW), a wave that takes ∼5 days to travel around a latitude circle, is a dominant planetary scale oscillation in the polar summer mesospheric temperature and polar mesospheric cloud (PMC) fields. We present the first study of the Q5DW impact on the northern hemisphere (NH) PMC season onset. The Q5DW activity is derived from 16 years (2007–2022) of satellite temperature observations. This activity is then compared to the onset of NH PMC seasons determined from the Cloud Imaging and Particle Size (CIPS) observations. The season onsets ranged from 15 to 28 May, with earliest onsets in 2013, 2015, 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022. Earlier onsets in 2015, 2019, 2020, and 2021 were characterized by increased Q5DW power presumably driven by instability due to large vertical shear in the zonal winds. PMCs are found to form in the cold troughs of the Q5DW. We thus propose that the much colder troughs due to enhanced Q5DW activity in mid‐May of 2015, 2019, 2020, and 2021 influenced the timing of PMC onset in these years. While several other factors contribute to earlier onset of PMC seasons in the NH, our analysis suggests that enhanced Q5DW activity also plays a major role. Key Points: There is year‐to‐year variability in the quasi 5‐day wave (Q5DW) activity in the northern hemisphere summerObservations from 2007 to 2022 indicate that four of the six earliest polar mesospheric cloud (PMC) season onsets are characterized by higher Q5DW activityPMC first form in the longitude sector coincident with the cold trough of the Q5DW [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate warming causes permafrost degradation that not only leads to the release of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, but also to soil moisture increases due to ground ice melt. These processes are particularly prevalent in peat‐rich and ice‐rich permafrost regions. Peat is important because of its high organic matter content and soil moisture. Although previous work has focused on the importance of two factors, their precise quantitative impact on permafrost is still not clear. Here we apply the Geophysical Institute Permafrost Laboratory model and sensitivity experiments to quantify the role of organic matter and soil moisture on permafrost, with a case study focused on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. We verify that organic matter and soil moisture has a cooling effect in the warm season and an insulating effect in the cold season. The average thawing onset was delayed 10 days at 0.05–1.4 m depths, when organic matter content increases from 0% to 90%. Freezing onset occurs slightly earlier. Furthermore, active layer thickness (ALT) decreased by 0.40 m. Soil moisture has similar effect on permafrost as organic matter, but ALT changes have a higher magnitude, decreasing by 0.46 m. The results show that both organic matter and soil moisture have an insulating effect on permafrost. Further, the magnitude of impact is larger as organic matter or soil moisture increase. These results can be helpful in assessing permafrost carbon mitigation with climate change. Plain Language Summary: Permafrost can contain high amounts of organic matter and ground ice, and peat plays an important role in permafrost degradation. Permafrost degrades due to climate warming, which can lead to the release of carbon in the form of greenhouse gases, exacerbating the degradation of permafrost. Additionally, soil moisture also significantly impacts permafrost degradation. However, few studies have estimated the effects of organic matter and soil moisture on permafrost degradation. This paper therefore explores the quantitative effect of organic matter and soil moisture on permafrost through a series of model sensitivity experiments. We find that organic matter and soil moisture both insulate permafrost, cooling it in summer and warming it in winter. These results are important for mitigating the effects of climate change on permafrost and carbon feedbacks. Key Points: The insulating effect of organic matter and soil moisture on permafrost is quantified using model sensitivity experimentsIncreasing organic matter and soil moisture both cool permafrost in summer and warm it in winterThese organic matter and soil moisture feedbacks refine our understanding of permafrost dynamics under climate change [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ensemble clustering analysis was performed to explore the role of the initial hurricane vortex‐scale wind structure in the prediction of the intensification of Hurricane Patricia (2015). Convection‐allowing ensemble forecasts were classified into spin‐down (SPD) and spin‐up (SPU) groups. Specifically, 10 members with an intensification rate >0 m/s and 10 members with an intensification rate <0 m/s for the first 6 hr were defined as the SPD and SPU members. The result showed that the tangential winds outside the inner‐core region in the SPD members were weaker compared to the SPU members. Additionally, the SPD members had a weaker inflow near the surface and a weaker outflow between the heights of 8 and 12 km than the SPU members. The SPU members showed more significant azimuthal asymmetry than the SPD members in the surface, tangential and radial winds. Wavenumber analysis showed that the low wavenumber components dominated the differences between the SPD and SPU members. Numerical experiments were conducted to test the hypothesis generated by the clustering analysis. It was found that the storm's maximum wind speed (MWS) intensified during the first 6 hr of the model forecast if only the low wavenumber structure in the SPU members was included in the initial conditions, whereas it decayed during the first 6 hr if only the low wavenumber structure in the SPD members was included. This result confirms that the low wavenumber structure of the initial wind analyses was important in predicting the intensity changes of Hurricane Patricia (2015). Plain Language Summary: Accurate forecasts of the intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) are important in both early warning systems and impact assessments. However, the spin‐down (SPD) issue remains a challenge in the operational HWRF model and occurs in many TC cases, especially in the prediction of intense TCs, which can lead to substantial degradation of the short‐term intensity forecast. In this paper, ensemble clustering analysis was performed to explore the role of the initial hurricane vortex‐scale wind structure in the prediction of the intensification of Hurricane Patricia (2015). Convection‐allowing ensemble forecasts were classified into spin‐down (SPD) and spin‐up (SPU) groups. Several statistically significant differences were found in the structure of the initial vortex wind analyses between the SPD and SPU members. Particularly, the low wavenumber components dominated the differences between the SPD and SPU members. Both the wavenumber analysis and numerical experiments suggested that the low wavenumber structure of the initial wind analyses in ensemble members was important in predicting the intensity changes of Hurricane Patricia (2015). These results would be helpful as a way for alleviating the SPD issue in the operational HWRF model system. Key Points: Spin‐up (SPU) members showed more significant azimuthal asymmetry than spin‐down (SPD) members in the initial wind analysesLow wavenumber components dominated the differences between the SPD and SPU membersThe low wavenumber structure of the initial wind analyses was important in predicting the intensity changes of Hurricane Patricia (2015) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The November 2001 Solar Proton Event (SPE) is one of the strongest events in the era of satellite observations. However, no observational case study of this exceptional event's impact on atmospheric chemistry has been reported. In this paper, we use satellite‐based observations from Optical Spectrograph and Infrared Imaging Systems (OSIRIS) to quantify the SPE impact on middle atmospheric O3 in the southern hemisphere during summertime conditions. The results show a relatively modest, yet detectable, O3 depletion in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere. Compared to the observations, the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM‐D) simulates somewhat lower O3 levels before the event but captures well the relative ozone depletion. The largest depletion is seen on November 6th, after the Geostationary Operational Environment Satellite observed the peak proton fluxes. On this day, the O3 depletion was observed and simulated from the pole to 55°S geographic latitude. The daily polar cap (poleward of 60°S geographic latitude) averaged O3 profiles show a maximum depletion of 16.6 ± 2.2% at 1 hPa and 18.8 ± 3.3% at 1.5 hPa altitude, by OSIRIS and WACCM‐D, respectively. After the SPE, an enhancement in NOx is simulated by the results of the model within altitudes of the observation, which is well correlated with the observed and modeled O3 depletion. Challenges related to the detection of SPE impact on O3 in the summer hemisphere are discussed. We find that a careful analysis of simulation results can be essential when isolating the SPE impact from background variation. Plain Language Summary: The 4th of November 2001 solar proton event (SPE) is one of the strongest events in the era of satellite observations. However, no direct satellite‐based observations have been reported for this particular event. Here, we have used observations from the Optical Spectrograph and Infrared Imaging Systems (OSIRIS) instrument, onboard the Odin satellite, to study the impact of this SPE on middle atmospheric ozone in the southern polar region. As OSIRIS is dependent on sunlight to measure ozone, we study the impact in the southern hemisphere during summertime. The observations are compared to a state‐of‐the‐art global climate model that can simulate the atmosphere with meteorological dynamics, coupled with chemistry and radiation such as solar UV and proton events. The results show a modest but detectable upper stratosphere and lower mesospheric ozone depletion in the south polar region. Comparison between observation and model reveals the model has lower ozone levels before the event but captures well the ozone depletion after the SPE. Key Points: We analyze Optical Spectrograph and Infrared Imaging Systems/Odin observations from the southern summer pole and compare them to Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model simulationsA modest but detectable upper stratospheric and lower mesospheric O3 depletion is seenThe simulated NOx enhancement shows good correlation with the observed and modeled O3 depletion [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Asian summer monsoon (ASM) as a chemical transport system is investigated using a suite of models in preparation for an airborne field campaign over the Western Pacific. Results show that the dynamical process of anticyclone eddy shedding in the upper troposphere rapidly transports convectively uplifted Asian boundary layer air masses to the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere over the Western Pacific. The models show that the transported air masses contain significantly enhanced aerosol loading and a complex chemical mixture of trace gases that are relevant to ozone chemistry. The chemical forecast models consistently predict the occurrence of the shedding events, but the predicted concentrations of transported trace gases and aerosols often differ between models. The airborne measurements to be obtained in the field campaign are expected to help reduce the model uncertainties. Furthermore, the large‐scale seasonal chemical structure of the monsoon system is obtained from modeled carbon monoxide, a tracer of the convective transport of pollutants, which provides a new perspective of the ASM circulation, complementing the dynamical characterization of the monsoon. Plain Language Summary: The Asian summer monsoon has been known as a weather system for centuries, but only in the recent decades has the system been recognized for its importance in atmospheric composition. Monsoon deep convection lofts near surface air to 15–17 km altitudes thus altering the chemical composition of the tropopause layer. The process also sends aerosols and chemically active trace gas species into the stratosphere where they affect climate through their impacts on ozone and aerosol radiative forcing. To understand the monsoon transport process and its impacts on climate system, a large airborne field campaign, the Asian summer monsoon Chemical and Climate Impact Project, was planned. This paper presents a set of results from precampaign model studies. These results serve as the hypotheses for the field investigation and provide guidance for its operational planning. Key Points: This model study is conducted in preparation for an airborne field campaign investigating the Asian monsoon transportResult shows that eastward eddy shedding of the anticyclone significantly alters upper tropospheric composition over the Western PacificCO seasonal distribution provides a chemical perspective of the monsoon system and sheds new light on monsoon dynamics and circulation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) is a fast model that requires bulk optical properties of hydrometeors in the form of lookup tables to simulate all‐sky satellite radiances. Current cloud scattering lookup tables of CRTM were generated using the Mie‐Lorenz theory thus assuming spherical shapes for all frozen habits, while actual clouds contain frozen hydrometeors with different shapes. The Discrete Dipole Approximation (DDA) technique is an effective technique for simulating the optical properties of non‐spherical hydrometeors in the microwave region. This paper discusses the implementation and validation of a comprehensive DDA cloud scattering database into CRTM for the microwave frequencies. The original DDA database assumes total random orientation in the calculation of single scattering properties. The mass scattering parameters required by CRTM were then computed from single scattering properties and water content dependent particle size distributions. The new lookup tables eliminate the requirement for providing the effective radius as input to CRTM by using the cloud water content for the mass dimension. A collocated dataset of short‐term forecasts from Integrated Forecast System of the European Center for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts and satellite microwave data was used for the evaluation of results. The results overall showed that the DDA lookup tables, in comparison with the Mie tables, greatly reduce the differences among simulated and observed values. The Mie lookup tables especially introduce excessive scattering for the channels operating below 90 GHz and low scattering for the channels above 90 GHz. Plain Language Summary: Radiative transfer (RT) models have a wide range of applications in remote sensing, satellite data calibration, instrument design, and weather forecasts. Although, the clear‐sky simulations conducted by the RT models are relatively accurate, the accuracy of these models for simulating all‐sky observations remains limited. One of the main reasons for inaccuracies in all‐sky simulations is known to be the scattering databases used to calculate the optical properties of different cloud hydrometeors. We implemented and evaluated a large scattering database, computed using the Discrete Dipole Approximation (DDA) technique, into the Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM). The results showed that the simulations conducted using the DDA database are much more accurate than the corresponding simulations conducted using the Mie scattering lookup tables which assumes spherical particles for all hydrometeors. Key Points: The cloud scattering lookup tables of Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) discussed and documentedA new scattering database generated using the Discrete Dipole Approximation (DDA) implemented into CRTMThe scattering parameters computed using the DDA technique perform considerably better than Mie coefficients for microwave frequencies [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lower atmospheric gravity waves (GWs) can significantly impact waves in the middle and upper atmospheres and are vital for turbulence generation. This paper puts the spotlight on the spatial–temporal variability of tropospheric GW total energy (ET) and its potential sources above four regions of interest (ROIs) gathered from high‐resolution radiosonde observations from the China Radiosonde Network during the years 2016–2019. The seasonality of ET above four ROIs shows different characteristics and is dependent on latitudes and underlying terrains, reaching its maximum identified in the winter at middle latitudes. Interestingly, the annual cycles of the maximal ET shift from 35°N in October to 25°N in March of the next year, triggered by the shift in the winter subtropical jet. Based on the random forests regressor, the jet stream between 200 and 125 hPa likely serves as the primary source for the observed GWs above the ROIs with low and middle latitudes, with relative contributions of around 60%. However, the Kelvin–Helmholtz instability between 800 and 125 hPa could be the most recognized source of GWs and contributes around 68.4% to the observed energy. During the rainy season, the ET under scenarios of convective precipitation is around 20% larger than the other. As well, as the near‐surface or low‐level wind interacts with a mountain barrier over the Tibetan Plateau region, 12.4% of the observed ET is attributed to the strength of the low‐level wind. Plain Language Summary: The gravity wave (GW) is one of the most important waves in the atmosphere and acts as a triggering source to turbulence. However, the tropospheric GWs in the context of China has seldomly been investigated by using high‐resolution radiosonde data set. This analysis shows that the GW total energy exhibit obvious seasonal various at low and middle latitudes, with maximal identified in the winter and minimal in the summer. The jet stream in the upper troposphere is the most important source for GW at low and middle latitudes and gives rise to a southward propagation of the maximal GW energy in cold season. In the summer of southern China, the convective precipitation could contribute to the enhancement of GW energy. In addition, 12.4% of the observed GW energy is attributed to the strength of the low‐level wind over the Tibetan Plateau. Key Points: Jet stream is the dominant source for gravity waves (GWs) at low and middle latitudes and triggers southward movement of GW energy core during cold seasonsOver the Tibetan Plateau, Kelvin–Helmholtz instabilities and terrain‐induced flows contribute to the intensive GW activitiesDuring the summertime of southern China, convective precipitation could contribute to the enhancement of energy of about 20% [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study is devoted to the analysis of geomagnetic field disturbances and the response of the Schumann resonance (SR) during the eruption of the Tonga volcano in 2022. The data on geomagnetic field variations at distances from 800 to 15,000 km from the volcano according to the INTERMAGNET network and parameters of SR signals recorded at Mikhnevo Observatory in Russia were used. The source of global geomagnetic disturbances are acoustic–gravity waves (AGWs), which caused changes in ionospheric conductivity, values of ionospheric currents, and the geomagnetic field. The propagation velocity of magnetic disturbances 263 ± 5 m/s, corresponding to the AGWs velocity, was determined and an independent estimate of the time of the eruption phase that caused the generation of the atmospheric wave (4:14 ± 10 UT) was obtained. A new method of processing the results of measurements of SR disturbance with a time resolution of 5 min instead of the usual 10–15 min allowed not only to detect but also to study this phenomenon in detail. The peculiarities of signals related to the number and energy of lightning discharges were revealed. Synchronous measurements of SR signals and geomagnetic field variations in a single observatory for the first time allowed to obtain an independent estimate of the eruption time and the electromagnetic disturbance propagation rate. Plain Language Summary: The eruption of the Tonga volcano on 15 January 2022 caused global disturbances in the geomagnetic field and Schumann resonances. The paper shows that the source of disturbance of Schumann resonances during the eruption was increased thunderstorm activity in the volcanic cloud. Disturbances in the geomagnetic field are caused by acoustic‐gravity waves resulting from the eruption. A comprehensive analysis of the data made it possible to determine the time of the beginning of the eruption. Key Points: The eruption of the Hunga Tonga‐Hunga Haapai volcano in January 2021 caused global atmospheric and electromagnetic perturbationsTime of geomagnetic disturbances at distances 800–16,000 km from volcano showed the velocity of their propagation 263 m/s typical for acoustic–gravity wavesThe time difference between geomagnetic disturbance and Schumann resonance response at one point gives an independent estimate of their propagation velocity [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Non‐hydrostatic km‐scale weather and climate models show significant improvements in simulating clouds and precipitation, especially of convective nature. However, even km‐scale models need to parameterize some physical processes and are thus subject to the corresponding parameter uncertainty. Systematic calibration has the advantage of improving model performance with transparency and reproducibility, thus benefiting model intercomparison projects, process studies, and climate‐change scenario simulations. In this paper, the regional atmospheric climate model COSMO v6 is systematically calibrated over the Tropical South Atlantic. First, the parameters' sensitivities are evaluated with respect to a set of validation fields. Five of the most sensitive parameters are chosen for calibration. The objective calibration then closely follows a methodology previously used for regional climate simulations. This includes simulations considering the interaction of all pairs of parameters, and the exploitation of a quadratic‐form metamodel to emulate the simulations. In the current set‐up with 5 parameters, 51 simulations are required to build the metamodel. The model is calibrated for the year 2016 and validated in two different years using slightly different model setups (domain and resolution). Both years demonstrate significant improvements, in particular for outgoing shortwave radiation, with reductions of the bias by a factor of 3–4. The results thus show that parameter calibration is a useful and efficient tool for model improvement. Calibrating over a larger domain might help to further improve the overall performance, but could potentially also lead to compromises among different regions and variables, and require more computational resources. Key Points: A systematic calibration method is applied to improve the performance of a km‐resolution regional climate model over the tropical AtlanticCloud‐related model performance at the km‐scale is significantly improved through systematic calibrationThe calibrated parameter setting is robust among different years [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a result of their important role in weather and the global hydrological cycle, understanding atmospheric rivers' (ARs) connection to synoptic‐scale climate patterns and atmospheric dynamics has become increasingly important. In addition to case studies of two extreme AR events, we produce a December climatology of the three‐dimensional structure of water vapor and O3 (ozone) distributions associated with ARs in the northeastern Pacific from 2004 to 2014 using MERRA‐2 reanalysis products. Results show that positive O3 anomalies reside in dry intrusions of stratospheric air due to stratosphere‐to‐troposphere transport (STT) behind the intense water vapor transport of the AR. In composites, we find increased excesses of O3 concentration, as well as in the total O3 flux within the dry intrusions, with increased AR strength. We find that STT O3 flux associated with ARs over the NE Pacific accounts for up to 13% of total Northern Hemisphere STT O3 flux in December, and extrapolation indicates that AR‐associated dry intrusions may account for as much as 32% of total NH STT O3 flux. This study quantifies STT of O3 in connection with ARs for the first time and improves estimates of tropospheric ozone concentration due to STT in the identification of this correlation. In light of predictions that ARs will become more intense and/or frequent with climate change, quantifying AR‐related STT O3 flux is especially valuable for future radiative forcing calculations. Plain Language Summary: Long filaments of rapidly moving water vapor in the atmosphere, known as atmospheric rivers (ARs), play a vital role in the Earth's water cycle. Because of this, research continues to expand into ARs' relationship with large‐scale climate patterns. In this paper, we use data from the Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research Applications to examine several extreme ARs that made landfall on the U.S. West Coast and their relationship to the transport of ozone from the stratosphere to the troposphere. We then combine 11 years of December AR and ozone data in order to study the average trend of ozone transport in connection with ARs. We quantify the AR‐related ozone transport for the first time, and we find ARs with more intense water vapor transport result in the transport of higher concentrations of ozone. Quantifying ozone transport into the troposphere in connection with ARs is important as ARs may become more intense and/or more frequent with climate change, and ozone in the troposphere has consequences for the greenhouse effect. Key Points: Case studies and December climatology using MERRA‐2 reveal positive tropospheric ozone anomalies within dry intrusions associated with ARsAverage excess ozone concentrations are 10–13 ppbv at 400 hPa, and are even greater for increasing intensity of ARsSTT of ozone associated with ARs in the NE Pacific may account for (13 ± 2)% of the total December Northern Hemisphere STT ozone flux [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The physicochemical properties and origins of atmospheric aerosols in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) region are a research topic of great interest, but an in‐depth understanding of this topic is challenging, partially due to a lack of intensive in situ observations. Thus, a field campaign was conducted over Yadong, a remote area on the south slope of the TP from June 11 to 31 August 2021. The aerosol loading was low, with a black carbon mass concentration of 147.4 ± 98.4 ng·m−3. Aerosol single‐scattering albedo was low (0.73 ± 0.11 at 550 nm) and increased from 450 to 700 nm wavelength. Organic matter (OM) accounting for 69.6% of the total aerosol mass and relatively high secondary organic carbon ratios, highlighting the importance of secondary formation. An interesting phenomenon observed was that the evolution of aerosols was mainly characterized by diurnal variation, which could not be explained by large‐scale atmospheric processes such as Indian summer monsoon. Instead, it was found that regional mountain‐valley winds between the Himalayas and South Asia transported polluted air masses toward the TP, especially in the afternoon when regional valley wind are expected to be the strongest and the boundary layer in South Asia is deepest. Additionally, daytime local valley wind further elevated these aerosols to higher altitudes on the TP. This paper provides insights into the transport mechanisms of aerosols from South Asia to the TP. These findings are of great importance since aerosols exhibit significant diurnal variations in the TP region. Plain Language Summary: Previous studies focused on the analysis of the physical or chemical properties of aerosols on the Tibetan Plateau, but this study provides a comprehensive examination of both. The findings reveal that aerosols on the southern slope of the Tibetan Plateau exhibit strong absorption efficiency. Aerosol single‐scattering albedo was low (0.73 ± 0.11 at 550 nm), which may be attributed to aerosol secondary generation and coating. Finally, the mechanism of pollutant transport from South Asia to the Tibetan Plateau was analyzed relies on site observations, satellite, and reanalysis data to highlight the link between diurnal variations of pollutants and transport mechanism. The specific transport mechanism be understood uniformly across different scales, including Indian summer monsoon, regional mountain‐valley winds between the Himalayas and South Asia, and local mountain‐valley winds circulation. Key Points: Aerosol single‐scattering albedo was low (0.73 ± 0.11 at 550 nm) and secondary organic matter was the major aerosol componentThe evolution of aerosols was mainly characterized by diurnal variation that was related to transport mechanism over YadongThe Himalayas‐South Asia regional mountain‐valley winds combined with local mountain‐valley winds transport aerosols to the Tibetan Plateau [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting centers have implemented a probabilistic circle to represent track uncertainty at a specified lead time. Recent studies suggest that probability ellipses constructed from ensemble prediction systems can convey the anisotropy of track predictability. In this study, a new probability ellipse model is developed to interpret the extent of forward speed and heading uncertainties in ensemble forecasts by selecting an equal proportion of members in the along‐ and cross‐track directions. This method is validated using the 2019–2021 western North Pacific (WNP) TC track forecasts from the ensemble predictions of the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts, the United States National Centers for Environmental Prediction, and the Korea Meteorological Administration. When the proportion of ensemble members in the ellipse is set to 70%, more than one‐half (50.0%–73.6%) of the forecasts, depending on the lead time, indicate reduced area compared with that of the circle. The mean areas of the probability ellipses are 4.9%, 7.0%, 10.0%, and 11.5% smaller than those of the circle in 48‐, 72‐, 96‐, and 120‐hr forecasts, respectively. The forward speed shows greater uncertainty than the heading, as evidenced by the along‐track radii being larger than the cross‐track counterpart in ∼60% of the samples, regardless of the lead time. In addition, the regional distribution of the along‐track/cross‐track ratio in the probability ellipses can explain the dominant direction of the track error in a particular location. The proposed probability ellipse shows potential for application in operational TC track predictions. Plain Language Summary: Operational tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting centers usually represent the uncertainty of a TC track forecast with a circle, namely the probabilistic circle. In this paper, the circle is generalized to a probability ellipse directly using the output of ensemble prediction systems. The key to the new ellipse is that an equal proportion of ensemble members are selected in the along‐ and cross‐track directions to determine the two elliptical radii. This probability ellipse is smaller in size than the circle when representing the same level of uncertainty. The eccentric property of the probability ellipse allows for easy interpretation of the direction with larger ensemble‐forecast uncertainty. Such results can aid in operational TC track predictions and subsequent implementation of preventive measures. Key Points: The proposed probability ellipse explicitly shows the uncertainty of ensemble forecast tracks in the along‐ and cross‐track directionsThe probability ellipse is capable of explaining the dominant direction of error in track forecastsRegional distributions of uncertainty and error resemble each other in terms of magnitude and direction [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We conduct a global assessment of the spatial heterogeneity of cloud phase within the temperature range where liquid and ice can coexist. Single‐shot Cloud‐Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization lidar retrievals are used to examine cloud phase at scales as fine as 333 m, and horizontal heterogeneity is quantified according to the frequency of switches between liquid and ice along the satellite's path. In the global mean, heterogeneity is greatest between −15 and −4°C with a peak at −5°C, when small patches of ice are prevalent within liquid‐dominated clouds. Heterogeneity "hot spots" are typically found over the extratropical continents, whereas phase is relatively homogeneous over the Southern Ocean and the eastern subtropical ocean basins, where supercooled liquid clouds dominate. Even at a fixed temperature, heterogeneity undergoes a pronounced annual cycle that, in most places, consists of a minimum during autumn or winter and a maximum during spring or summer. Based on this spatial and temporal variability, it is hypothesized that heterogeneity is affected by the availability of ice nucleating particles. These results can be used to improve the representation of subgrid‐scale heterogeneity in general circulation models, which has the potential to reduce longstanding model biases in cloud phase partitioning and radiative fluxes. Plain Language Summary: At temperatures where ice and liquid can coexist within clouds, climate models tend to produce too much ice and too little liquid compared to satellite observations. This bias is likely caused by the assumption that liquid and ice are uniformly mixed, which results in the rapid conversion of liquid to ice for thermodynamic reasons. To reduce this bias, models need to account for the spatial heterogeneity ("patchiness") of liquid and ice that exists in the real atmosphere. The goal of this paper is to quantify this spatial heterogeneity using satellite‐based lidar observations of cloud phase. We find small pockets of ice in liquid‐dominated clouds to be more common than small pockets of liquid in ice‐dominated clouds. The greatest heterogeneity is found over the midlatitude continents, whereas phase is relatively uniform over the Southern Ocean and other maritime regions with extensive low cloud cover. In the mid and high latitudes, cloud phase tends to be more heterogeneous during spring and summer and more homogeneous during autumn and winter. These results can be used in the future to improve model representations of the thermodynamic processes responsible for biases in cloud phase. Key Points: Cloud phase heterogeneity is greatest at −5°C, when small ice patches form in majority‐liquid cloudsCloud phase is relatively homogeneous over the Southern Ocean and heterogeneous over the northern continentsFor a fixed temperature, extratropical phase heterogeneity is generally greatest during local spring and summer [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arctic cyclone activity is an important component of the local climate, and the frequent occurrence of extreme summer storms has raised widespread scientific interest. In this paper, we investigated the distinctive structural characteristics of intense summer Arctic cyclones by utilizing ERA‐Interim reanalysis data and employing a deep learning algorithm for cyclone detection. We found that the northern edge of Eurasia (i.e., the marginal ice zone (MIZ)) and the Alpha Ridge of Arctic Ocean (AR, i.e. central Arctic) are the two most active regions for intense Arctic cyclone activities in summer (from June to September). However, the surface conditions and coupling frequency between surface cyclone and tropopause polar vortices (TPVs) are distinct over these two regions. By further analysis of 100 intense cyclone activities in these two areas, respectively, we found that cyclones in MIZ are often smaller in size but higher in intensity at their maximum intensity, and their life cycles are generally shorter. MIZ cyclones are typically accompanied by a large Eady growth rate and frontal structure in the lower troposphere and their intensification primarily attributed to the thermal‐baroclinic process. In contrast, cyclones in AR are more frequently associated with higher potential vorticity (PV) values and pronounced PV downward intrusion from the stratosphere, as well as notable "upper warm‐lower cold" structures. The downward intrusion of TPVs and stratosphere vortices contribute to a decrease in the upper and column air mass deficit, leading to the intensification of surface Arctic cyclones in these regions. Plain Language Summary: In this study, we researched intense summer storms in the Arctic. We found that there are two main areas where these storms occur: the marginal ice zone (MIZ) near Eurasia and the Alpha Ridge (AR) in the central Arctic. However, storms in these two areas have different characteristics. In the MIZ, the storms are smaller but stronger, and they do not last as long. They are mainly driven by instability in the lower troposphere. On the other hand, the storms in AR respond more to the downward intrusion of potential vorticity from the stratosphere. These storms have a unique structure where the upper air is warmer than their surroundings, and the lower air is colder than their surroundings, especially in AR. This structure makes them more intense and longer‐lasting. Exploring these differences helps us understand how Arctic storms work, and how they might be affected by climate change. Key Points: Both the marginal ice zone (MIZ) and Alpha Ridge exhibit active summer Arctic cyclone activities, especially for intense stormsIn the MIZ, baroclinic instability plays a more prominent role in the intensification and maintenance of cyclonesCyclones in Alpha Ridge are more commonly accompanied by potential vorticity downward intrusion, and "upper warm‐lower cold" structures [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study explores the impact of rising CO2 levels on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation's (AMOC) interdecadal variability within the context of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) background climate. Under heightened CO2 concentrations, the AMOC interdecadal variability intensifies dramatically, which is very different from the future warming case that shows a weakening of AMOC interdecadal variability in response to increased CO2 concentration. This unexpected phenomenon primarily results from the extensive retreat of sea ice, which exposes a larger portion of the ocean surface to efficiently feel the heat flux fluctuations from atmospheric processes. These findings underscore the significance of background climate conditions in shaping AMOC responses to increased CO2 and emphasize the necessity of considering these nuances to develop a more accurate understanding of AMOC dynamics in an evolving climate. Plain Language Summary: The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is an important component of the Earth system, and its interdecadal variability is predicted to be significantly weakened under future warming scenarios. In this paper, we analyze the response of AMOC interdecadal variability to rising CO2 levels under the background of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and find that the AMOC interdecadal variability is intensified under increased CO2, which is totally different from its response at the background of modern climate. Analyses suggest that this unexpected result is mainly caused by dramatic sea ice retreat, which exposes much seawater to efficiently receive large fluctuations of heat flux from atmospheric forcing. The findings reveal that the response of AMOC to increased CO2 and relevant dominant mechanism differs significantly under different climate conditions. Key Points: The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) interdecadal variability is intensified with increased CO2 under the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) background climate, diverging from that in future warmingThe intensified AMOC variability cannot be explained by ocean dynamics as shown in future warming casesLarge sea ice retreat drives the intensification of AMOC interdecadal variability under the LGM warming [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

More and more optical records have exhibited that multiple upward leaders (MULs) occur frequently on a building in the flash attachment process. An interesting issue is why a building can continue to launch upward leader (UL) after the first one appears. This phenomenon is analyzed in the present paper. Considering the influence of the leader behaviors on the ambient electric field, an improved 3‐D fine‐resolution lightning attachment model with MULs is established to simulate cloud‐to‐ground flash events with diverse leader spatial morphologies. The simulation results show that MULs may initiate almost simultaneously or with an obvious delay and the variation range of UL length is large. From this, the flash events of lightning terminating on a building are divided into four scenarios and each scenario is analyzed. It was found that the spatial location of downward leader, the length and propagation direction of the first UL and the time interval from the inception of the first UL to final jump significantly affect the electric fields at top corners of building and further affect the inception of the second UL. Based on qualitative analysis, four factors are proposed to explain why the above four scenarios happen. Plain Language Summary: This research focuses on understanding the process of cloud‐to‐ground (CG) lightning, which can cause significant harm to society. Specifically, the study investigates the initiation of multiple upward leaders in the CG lightning process. By considering the impact of lightning leader behaviors on the surrounding electric field, the researchers develop an improved lightning attachment model. Using this model, we simulate the development of leaders and identify factors that explain why one or more leaders originate from an isolated building. The results highlight the importance of the location of the lightning, the characteristics of the first upward leader, and the timing of the lightning strike in influencing the initiation of multiple upward leaders. Future studies will explore CG lightning within groups of buildings, contributing to our understanding of this phenomenon and providing insights for protecting buildings from lightning strikes. Key Points: An improved 3‐D fine‐resolution stochastic discharge model is developedThe spatial location of lightning, as well as the length and propagation direction of the first upward leader, has an impact on the initiation of multiple upward leadersThe time interval between the inception of the first upward leader and the final jump affects the initiation of multiple upward leaders [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our basic knowledge of downward positive lightning leaders is incomplete due to their rarity and limited ability of VHF mapping systems to image positive streamers. Here, using high‐speed optical records and wideband electric field and magnetic field derivative signatures, we examine in detail the development of a descending positive leader, which extended intermittently via alternating branching at altitudes of 4.2 to 1.9 km and involved luminosity transients separated by millisecond‐scale quiet intervals. We show that the transients (a) are mostly initiated in previously created but already decayed branches, at a distance of the order of 100 m above the branch lower extremity, (b) extend bidirectionally with negative charge moving up, (c) establish a temporary (1 ms or so) steady‐current connection to the negative part of the overall bidirectional leader tree, and (d) exhibit brightening accompanied by new breakdowns at the positive leader end. One of the transients unexpectedly resulted in a negative cloud‐to‐ground discharge. Both positive and negative ends of the transients extended at speeds of 106–107 m/s, while the overall positive leader extension speed was as low as 103–104 m/s. Wideband electric field signatures of the transients were similar to K‐changes, with their millisecond‐ and microsecond‐scale features being associated with the steady current and new breakdowns, respectively. For transients with both ends visible in our optical records, charge transfers and average currents were estimated to be typically a few hundreds of millicoulombs and some hundreds of amperes, respectively. Plain Language Summary: Our knowledge of downward positive lightning is very limited. Positive lightning constitutes only about 5% of the global lightning activity, but it causes the most severe damage to various objects and systems, as well as most transient luminous events in the mesosphere. The leader processes in positive lightning remain a mystery and are widely debated in the atmospheric electricity community. In this paper, we present two new findings on propagation mechanisms of branched downward positive leader: (a) its ability to produce an opposite‐polarity (negative) lightning discharge to ground and (b) its unusual mode of propagation involving bidirectional transients, which temporarily reactivate individual leader branches and facilitate their alternating extension. Key Points: Branched positive leader extending at an average speed of 103–104 m/s resulted in a three‐stroke negative cloud‐to‐ground flashPositive leader extension involved bidirectional transients, moving negative charge up, separated by millisecond‐scale quiet intervalsElectric field signatures of the transients are similar to K‐changes and are associated with steady currents and new breakdowns at far end [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we present XStorm, a gamma ray spectrometer developed to detect gamma ray glows and terrestrial gamma ray flashes (TGFs) in close proximity. Measurements are mostly planned to take place on balloon campaigns but also on the ground using bigger detectors. The main aim in developing XStorm is to perform new in situ and close proximity measurements of those events to improve the understanding of the physical processes involved. For that, we ensured XStorm reached performances adapted to glow and TGF detections. It detects photons with energy between ∼400 keV and ∼20 MeV. Detected particles are timetagged with a 600 ns precision with respect to UTC. Using two types of scintillator, Bismuth Germanium Oxide and EJ‐276 plastic associated with SiPMs, the instrument is able to discriminate three types of particles involved in those events: photons, neutrons, and electrons. The behavior of the detector under high particle fluxes has been quantified through ground testing using a pulse generator. A triggered detection system has been developed, with different thresholds depending on the target of study. First measurements have been carried out with test flights in fair weather conditions and are presented here. Estimations of the configurations in which a gamma ray glow can be detected by XStorm and of the number of TGFs that could be detected in specific campaigns are also addressed. Plain Language Summary: Terrestrial gamma ray flashes (TGFs) are bursts of high‐energy photons generated in thunderstorms in less than 100 μs, whereas gamma ray glows are enhancement of the high‐energy radiation background in thunderstorms, lasting from seconds to minutes. We present a gamma ray spectrometer, XStorm, designed to detect terrestrial gamma ray flashes (TGFs) and gamma ray glows in close proximity. It is composed of two scintillators of different kinds to allow the detection of TGF and gamma ray glow photons (energies between 400 keV and 20 MeV, with a time precision of 600 ns UTC). XStorm measurements are mainly planned to take place on board balloons, but can also be performed at ground level using bigger scintillators. XStorm is able to discriminate photons, electrons and neutrons, that are particle types involved in TGFs. We show the first measurements in fair weather and configurations allowing the detection of gamma ray glows. We estimate that XStorm will detect ∼0.5 TGF on average over one balloon flight of Stratéole‐2 campaign presented in the scientific objectives. Key Points: Development of a gamma ray spectrometer to detect gamma ray glows and terrestrial gamma ray flashes (TGFs), able to discriminate photons, electrons, and neutronsResults from balloon test flights performed in fair weather conditions, detecting the background radiation level as a function of altitudeEstimation of the detectability of gamma ray glows and TGFs as a function of altitude with XStorm [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The role of free passage distance (FPD: the distance between the avalanche region and surface detectors) in influencing the relative numbers of energetic electrons and gamma rays in Thunderstorm Ground Enhancements (TGEs) is reconsidered and focuses on the contrast between long (>100 m) versus short (<100 m) FPDs, respectively. Estimates of FPD are based on information from published balloon soundings of the electric field, from published profiles of radar reflectivity in TGEs, and from analyses of Japan winter storms. All these data sources support typical values of FPD >100 m. Neither the shortcomings of present particle detectors in distinguishing electrons from gamma rays, nor the dominance of gamma rays over electrons, are sufficient evidence to deny the robust presence of Compton electrons at FDP values greater than 100 m that have also been shown in earlier simulations as well as the present Comment. Problems with having sustained electric fields of breakeven magnitude within 100 m of the Earth's surface (in relatively rare TGEs) are identified. The resolution of these problems, and the prominent nocturnal presence of these rare events, may possibly be explained by the descent of a strong field region in a collapsing storm, and by a low cloud base that intercepts and immobilizes fast corona ions, thereby preserving the intense electric field. Plain Language Summary: Thunderstorms are capable of accelerating electrons to large energy by a process called electron runaway. This process is often confined to the cold portion of the thunderstorm at higher altitude where ice particles are available to separate electric charge to produce the necessary electric field, and where so‐called avalanche electrons are present. As a result, the high field region in the storm is removed from the ground where measurements of energetic radiation are usually undertaken to diagnose electron acceleration aloft. Gamma rays are produced when the energetic electrons are decelerated in coming in contact with heavy nuclei in a process called bremsstrahlung. Electrons unaided by strong field have short range in the atmosphere: tens of meters and less, whereas gamma rays have larger range (hundreds of meters). Accordingly, energetic electrons cannot be expected far (>200 m) below the high field region. One possible scenario for reducing this gap is the descent of strong field to near cloud base in a collapsing storm and the protection of field dissipation by the capture of small corona ions by cloud droplets. Evidence from several research areas in the literature is used to support the arguments in this paper. Key Points: Energetic Compton electrons are an inevitable accompaniment of the gamma ray flux of Thunderstorm Ground Enhancements (TGEs) but in numbers too small to be readily distinguished from the gamma rays with typical detectorsThe observations of avalanche electrons in TGEs is surprising, given the small free passage distance (FPD) (<50–100 m) requiredOne suggested scenario for creating small FPD is the lowering of negative charge in storm collapse and the capture of fast corona ions by cloud droplets [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The sensitivity of tropical cyclone (TC) intensification to its inner size in a sheared environment is investigated in this study. Previous research indicated that TCs with smaller sizes spin up more quickly in a quiescent environment. In contrast, our idealized numerical simulations show that TCs with larger inner‐core sizes experience faster growth within a certain size range under the vertical wind shear (VWS) because stronger upper‐level outflows are established quickly for larger TCs. The presence of strong outflow diminishes the impact of VWS, causing the TC re‐alignment. In more detail, the stronger outflow locally reduces the shear, allowing the convective asymmetry to propagate to the upshear side and migrate inward toward the TC center more rapidly. The upshear convection leads to a stronger outflow and thus a greater blocking effect on the upper‐level wind, effectively reducing the VWS and thus allowing subsequent faster TC growth. Our analysis reveals that the TC re‐alignment at an earlier stage allows for significant differences in surface heat flux (surface latent heat flux [SLHF]) distribution based on size. Larger TCs exhibit larger areas of high SLHF, which create favorable thermodynamic conditions for TC developments. Conversely, smaller vortices have limited SLHF underneath, resulting in a prolonged intensification process. Furthermore, the boundary layer recovery mechanism effectively counteracts the low‐level ventilation pathway imposed by the shear. This mechanism supports the downstream deep convection development on the upshear side. This study presents a new perspective, highlighting that the impact of shear on TCs is contingent upon their sizes upon entering a sheared environment. Plain Language Summary: The paper shows that a tropical cyclone (TC) with a larger inner‐core size experiences rapid intensification in the presence of vertical wind shear (VWS). Our findings indicate that when the TC has a larger inner‐core size, the enhanced inner‐core convection can increase the upper‐level outflow, which helps to resist the upper‐level environmental wind and reduce the VWS. This leads to the TC re‐alignment and allows for faster development. The large‐size TC possesses a larger area of high surface heat flux that provides abundant energy for TC development. This finding emphasizes a new perspective, highlighting that the impact of shear on TC development is contingent upon the size of the TC itself. Key Points: In the presence of vertical wind shear (VWS), tropical cyclone (TC) with a larger size is apt to experience a high intensification rateTC with a larger size quickly develops stronger upper‐level outflow, which helps decrease VWS. This leads to TC re‐alignment and faster developmentThe TC with a larger sizes possesses a larger area of high surface heat flux, favoring the thermodynamic forcing for TC rapid development [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) play a key role in Arctic amplification and stratospheric ozone destruction in polar regions. In this paper, we used the CALIPSO data to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution of Arctic PSCs from 2006 to 2021. We found that Arctic PSCs mainly appear in December, peak in late December and early January, disappearing in late February and early March. PSCs can extend from heights near the tropopause to over 25 km. However, there is the lowest fraction of PSCs in the 2014/2015 winter. This study found that the temperature in the 2014/2015 winter was warmer than the 15‐year average temperature, with the lowest temperature slightly below the PSCs formation temperature of about 5 K. The formation of the Ural blocking high accompanied by the poleward propagation of the planetary wave caused a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event on 3 January 2015, during which the warm air entered the polar vortex and divided it into two lobes. Additionally, a reduction in SO2 column mass density before the SSW event resulted PSCs occurring with a frequency of only 0.148 and dissipating rapidly in December. Moreover, the concentration of H2O and HNO3 in the gravitational settling process of PSCs decreased by 20–50%, the reduction of condensation nuclei made PSCs with the highest frequency of 0.074 in February appear briefly and then disappear. The chemical and dynamic analysis of PSCs formation is needed to further understand the spatiotemporal distribution of Arctic PSCs and to better predict future Arctic amplification and ozone destruction. Plain Language Summary: Polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) influence polar ozone depletion by providing a reaction interface and also influencing surface temperature changes through longwave radiation effects. Previous studies on polar stratospheric clouds mainly focus on the Antarctic, and few studies on the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of Arctic PSCs over long timescales. Therefore, by studying the spatial and temporal distribution of PSCs in the Arctic, we found that the spatial and temporal distribution of PSCs in the Arctic has obvious interannual variation compared with that in the Antarctic. The stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) events that occur almost every 2 years in the Arctic cause great interannual variations of the Arctic polar vortex and thus affect the distribution of Arctic PSCs. Moreover, there is the least and almost none occurrence of PSCs in the 2014/2015 winter, the chemical and dynamic analysis found that SSW, decrease of SO2, H2O, and HNO3 concentration are not conducive to the formation of PSCs. It is of great significance to study the influencing factors of Arctic PSCs formation and provide a new basis for further prediction of Arctic amplification and ozone destruction. Key Points: The fraction of Arctic polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) during 2014/2015 winter was the lowest observed in the past 15 yearsThe splitting of polar vortex and the rise in temperature caused by sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) inhibited the formation of PSCsThe decrease in stratospheric sulfur dioxide, nitric acid, and water was unfavorable for the formation of PSCs before and after the SSW [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Retraction: Kuo, C., Feldman, D. R., Huang, X., Flanner, M., Yang, P., & Chen, X. (2018). Time‐dependent cryospheric long wave surface emissivity feedback in the Community Earth System Model. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 123, 789–813. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2017JD027595. The above article from Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, published online on 3 January 2018, has been retracted by agreement between the authors; the journal Editor‐in‐Chief, Minghua Zhang; the American Geophysical Union; and Wiley Periodicals LLC. The retraction has been agreed because in the experimental setup of the original paper, surface temperature over the oceans was from the sea‐surface temperatures (SST) in the radiative transfer calculation of the CESM rather than from the correct weighted average of liquid and sea‐ice temperature (TS). This error affects the quantitative results of warmer wintertime Arctic surface temperatures, which were attributed in the original paper to the proposed spectral distribution of surface emissivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Western North Atlantic Ocean (WNAO) is a complex land‐ocean‐atmosphere system that experiences a broad range of atmospheric phenomena, which in turn drive unique aerosol transport pathways, cloud morphologies, and boundary layer variability. This work, Part 2 of a 2‐part paper series, provides an overview of the atmospheric circulation, boundary layer variability, three‐dimensional cloud structure, and precipitation over the WNAO; the companion paper (Part 1) focused on chemical characterization of aerosols, gases, and wet deposition. Seasonal changes in atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature explain a clear transition in cloud morphologies from small shallow cumulus clouds, convective clouds, and tropical storms in summer, to stratus/stratocumulus and multilayer cloud systems associated with winter storms. Synoptic variability in cloud fields is estimated using satellite‐based weather states, and the role of postfrontal conditions (cold‐air outbreaks) in the development of stratiform clouds is further analyzed. Precipitation is persistent over the ocean, with a regional peak over the Gulf Stream path, where offshore sea surface temperature gradients are large and surface fluxes reach a regional peak. Satellite data show a clear annual cycle in cloud droplet number concentration with maxima (minima) along the coast in winter (summer), suggesting a marked annual cycle in aerosol‐cloud interactions. Compared with satellite cloud retrievals, four climate models qualitatively reproduce the annual cycle in cloud cover and liquid water path, but with large discrepancies across models, especially in the extratropics. The paper concludes with a summary of outstanding issues and recommendations for future work. Key Points: Atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature drive large seasonal changes in precipitation, surface fluxes, and cloud typesSynoptic activity in winter yields the highest seasonal rain rates, low‐cloud occurrence, and cloud droplet number concentrationsClimate models simulate a wide range of low‐cloud properties, with improved results for models with more sophisticated turbulence schemes [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Providing skilful predictions of high‐impact weather up to 2 weeks ahead is on the agenda of international weather centers. Evaluating the capabilities of current numerical systems in predicting past events can bring extremely valuable contributions to the assessment of the information content available today with operational models. In the framework of the activities for the fiftieth anniversary of the extreme precipitation event that occurred in Italy in November 1966, this paper investigates its predictability using state‐of‐the‐art global and regional ensemble simulations. The first goal is to assess if and how many days in advance, this event can be predicted by current European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) global ensembles. A second goal is to evaluate the potential added value of running nested higher‐resolution and convection‐permitting ensembles. It is shown that ECMWF ensembles are able to provide valuable information up to 3 days before the event. Within this forecast range, convection‐permitting simulations can provide more accurate estimations of precipitation maxima. However, the results indicate also a strong underestimation of rainfall amounts with both global and regional models even at short forecast range. To partially explain this shortcoming, we discuss how the scarcity of observations available in 1966 for the analysis process limits the quality of the ensemble initial conditions and we adopt a method to obtain more reliable ensemble forecasts. The paper concludes with a comparison with previous similar works; results indicate a gain in predictability of up to 12 hr with respect to numerical revisitations performed to mark the fortieth anniversary of the event. Key Points: Current state‐of‐the‐art global ensembles are able to provide valuable information up to 3 days before the Arno River flooding event (Italy, November 1966)Convection‐permitting ensembles provide more accurate estimations of precipitation maximaAdvances in numerical modeling occurred in the last 10 years, determine a gain in predictability of up to 12 hr with respect to similar works [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate tracking of all components (including core, anvil, and cirrus) of deep convective systems (DCSs) throughout their lifecycle is key to quantifying their impacts on radiative forcing, especially of the anvil and cirrus. Here, a new Full‐tracking Algorithm for Convective Thunderstorm System is developed based on geostationary satellite. It successfully tracks DCSs starting from the initial core to complete dissipation of cirrus detrained from them, and integrates all the related components that split from the initial convective core into a whole DCS. Results show that more than half of the tracked DCSs experience splitting evolutions, with an average of eight sub‐cores during their lifetime. With tracking cirrus generated by DCSs, the lifetime of DCSs is lengthened by up to 10 hr, and their area is enlarged by 16% on average. Generally, long‐lived DCSs have lower cloud top temperature, greater rainfall, and larger area, with more frequent splitting evolutions than short‐lived DCSs. Additionally, DCSs always reach their peaks within 6 hr after initiation regardless of their lifetime. This paper provides a basis for further quantifying the evolution of DCS properties, their impacts on the global radiation budget, and the water cycle in the climate system. Key Points: A novel method is developed to track full components of deep convective systems (DCSs) from their initiation to total cirrus dissipationLifetime of DCSs is extended by up to 10 hr, and their area is enlarged by 16% averagely after continuously tracking their detrained cirrusIntegrated total rainfall amounts are comparably contributed between frequent but small and rare but large DCSs [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High concentrations of ozone along the coastline of Lake Michigan are a persistent air quality management challenge. Complementing observations during the 2017 Lake Michigan Ozone Study (LMOS 2017), WRF‐Chem modeling was used to quantify sensitivity of modeled ozone (O3) to anthropogenic nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions, including to changes in volatile chemical product (VCP). The daily maximum 8 hr average (MDA8) over the high ozone region of Lake Michigan decreased by 2.7 ppb with exclusion of VCP from the inventory, and was sensitive to both NOx and VOC changes, with greater sensitivity to NOx. Close to urban centers, MDA8 ozone was VOC‐sensitive. Clusters of coastal receptor sites were identified based on similarity in response to emission perturbations, with most clusters being NOx‐sensitive and NOx‐sensitivity increasing with distance from major emission sources. The 2 June 2017 ozone event, which has received considerable focus, is shown to be atypical due to unusually strong and spatially extended VOC‐sensitive behavior. WRF‐Chem integrated reaction rate analysis was used to compute radical termination rates due to NOx (LNOx) and to radical‐radical reactions (LROx). LROx/LNOx and formaldehyde to NO2 ratio (FNR) were shown to be predictive of modeled MDA8 ozone sensitivity, but with variation in predictive power as a function of time of day, which has implications for air quality management use of FNR from geostationary satellites. Plain Language Summary: Surface ozone is an air pollutant of concern due to human health impacts. In locations with elevated ozone concentrations, including coastal regions around Lake Michigan, ozone pollution is managed by controlling emissions of the two classes of chemicals that drive ozone chemistry: volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and nitrogen oxides (NOx). However, due to large reductions in emissions of NOx and VOC over the past 20 years, the leverage that future reductions will have is uncertain. Reductions of 4–5 ppb (∼7%) are needed in several locations, relative to 2017–2019 concentrations, to meet the 2015 ozone standard of 70 ppb. In this paper, we use simulations of atmospheric chemistry and airflow over the Midwestern US to address this issue. By comparing simulations based on different VOC and NOx emissions, we find that reductions in NOx emissions have more influence on ozone than reductions in VOC emissions, except for a small zone downwind of Chicago. On high ozone days over Lake Michigan, a 10% decrease in VOC (NOx) emissions can lower ozone in the key high ozone zone over southern Lake Michigan by 0.4% (0.8%). Volatile chemical products, an uncertain component of emission inventories, are responsible for 2.7 ppb (∼4%) of ozone. Key Points: Outside of a small (85 km) zone downwind of Chicago, ozone concentrations and production near Lake Michigan is generally NOx‐sensitiveOn event days 10% decrease in volatile organic compound emission can lower MDA8 by 0.4% and 10% decrease in nitrogen oxides emission can lower MDA8 by 0.8% over Lake MichiganVolatile chemical product emissions were modeled to produce an average 2.7 ppb ozone increase over the lake [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stable water isotopes are used as a paleothermometer in ice cores for climate reconstructions over the past millennia. The underlying physical processes involved in the isotope‐temperature relation, however, unfold at much shorter timescales. Here, we study the temporary archival of frontal passages in the seasonal Alpine snow cover. We combine five snow profiles sampled in winter 2017 at the Weissfluhjoch with a quantitative snow layer age reconstruction and atmospheric reanalysis data to characterize the circulation and clouds associated with the precipitation producing synoptic‐scale cold and warm fronts. We find that the vertical cloud structure and the air parcels' net cooling during transport leave a distinct imprint in the δ18O and δD vertical profile in the snow. The near‐surface humidity gradient at the moisture source is reflected in the second order isotope parameter deuterium excess. In the cold season, these environmental conditions during cloud formation and at the moisture source are preserved in the snow. In the melt season, significant post‐depositional effects due to wet snow metamorphism, however, leads to an enrichment in heavy isotopes in the snow and a strong smoothing of the initial atmospheric imprint. These findings show that the isotope signal archived in the dry snow cover is strongly modulated by individual weather systems prior to deposition. Major shifts in the upper‐level jet stream and cyclone tracks likely leading to changes in moisture source regions and conditions, could therefore be detectable in the isotope composition of Alpine ice. Plain Language Summary: To obtain information on past climate conditions, the non‐radioactive, heavy versions of the water molecule are often used as paleothermometers in ice cores. However, the processes that determine how this paleothermometer works, act at the weather‐system timescale (days), not the climate timescale (years). In this paper, we illustrate how isotope information from five snow profiles relate to the history of the water in the atmosphere during frontal passages. We show that the meteorological conditions at the evaporative source and in the clouds where the snow crystals are formed, determine the concentration of stable water isotopes in the snow. Transformation processes of the snow's structure, after it has been deposited do not significantly alter the isotope signals in the cold season. However, as soon as melting starts, the heavy water molecules accumulate in the snow, while the lighter ones are washed out. Key Points: Mid‐latitude synoptic fronts leave a distinct isotope signature in the Alpine snow cover that is preserved during the cold seasonThe cloud formation temperature determines the δ18O and δD of the buried snow, and moisture source information is preserved in the deuterium excessPost‐depositional dry metamorphism acts to smooth the snow isotope profile, while wet snow metamorphism leads to an enrichment of the snow [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The formation of the Aralkum (Aral Desert), following the severe desiccation of the former Aral Sea since the 1960s, has created what may be regarded as one of the world's most significant anthropogenic dust sources. In this paper, focusing on dust emission and transport patterns from the Aralkum, the dust life‐cycle has been simulated over Central Asia using the aerosol transport model COSMO‐MUSCAT (COnsortium for Small‐scale MOdelling‐MUltiScale Chemistry Aerosol Transport Model), making use of the Global Surface Water data set to take into account the sensitivity to changes in surface water coverage over the region between the 1980s (the "past") and the 2010s (the "present"). Over a case study 1‐year period, the simulated dust emissions from the Aralkum region increased from 14.3 to 27.1 Tg year−1 between the past and present, an increase driven solely by the changes in the surface water environment. Of these simulated modern emissions, 14.5 Tg are driven by westerly winds, indicating that regions downwind to the east may be worst affected by Aralkum dust. However a high degree of interannual variability in the prevailing surface wind patterns ensures that these transport patterns of Aralkum dust do not occur every year. Frequent cloud cover poses substantial challenges for observations of Central Asian dust: in the Aralkum, over two‐thirds of the yearly emissions are emitted under overcast skies, dust which may be impossible to observe using traditional satellite or ground‐based passive remote sensing techniques. Furthermore, it is apparent that the pattern of dust transport from the Aralkum under clear‐sky conditions is not representative of the pattern under all‐sky conditions. Plain Language Summary: Since the 1960s the Central Asian lake that used to be known as the Aral Sea has almost completely dried out, due to human activity. This environmental disaster has created a new desert known as the Aralkum (the "Aral Desert"), which now has a size of 245 km × 245 km across. Dried lakes such as the Aralkum can be very effective sources of wind‐driven atmospheric dust. The soils of the Aralkum are also contaminated with agricultural chemicals from nearby croplands, making the Aralkum a major regional threat to human health. Using an atmospheric computer model, we explore the consequences of the new Aralkum for the patterns of atmospheric dust and their potential impacts in Central Asia. We find that the new Aralkum has contributed an extra 7% per year to the total dust quantity over Central Asia, however due to thick cloud cover over two thirds of this dust from the Aralkum cannot be seen by Earth‐observing satellites. The wind patterns over the Aralkum vary from year to year, so while our simulations predict that most of the Aralkum's dust is transported to the east during the simulation year, during other years plenty more dust will be transported elsewhere. Key Points: The impact of changes in surface water coverage over the Aralkum (the former Aral Sea) for dust emission and transport is investigatedThere is a high degree of interannual variability in the directions of dust‐emitting winds over the AralkumOver two thirds of Aralkum dust activity occurs under thick cloud cover, limiting the possibility of it being observed by satellites [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Kostinskiy et al. (2015b), https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL065620, using a high‐speed infrared (2.5–5.5 μm) camera, discovered the so‐called unusual plasma formations (UPFs) in artificial clouds of charged water droplets. UPFs had complex morphology including both streamer‐like regions and hot channel segments. They were observed both in the presence and in the absence of hot leader channels developing from the grounded plane toward the cloud. In this paper, which is aimed at revealing the genesis of UPFs, we present two UPFs that occurred inside the initial corona streamer burst of positive polarity emitted from the grounded plane, prior to the formation (or in the absence) of associated hot leader channel. These streamer bursts developed at speeds of 5–7 × 105 m/s over 1–1.5 m before entering the optically visible negatively charged cloud and producing UPFs at its periphery. Hot channel segments within UPFs were formed in very short times of the order of 1 μs or less. It is not clear if the UPFs were caused solely by the enhanced electric field near the charged cloud boundary or other factors also played a role. Occurrence of UPFs may be a necessary component of the lightning initiation process. Key Points: Unusual plasma formations (UPFs) can occur inside the initial corona streamer burst, before the development (or in the absence) of hot leader channelUPFs contain hot channel segments that are formed, possibly via the thermal‐ionizational instability, on a time scale of 1 μs or lessUPFs occurred in the vicinity of cloud boundary, where the electric field is highest, as this boundary is penetrated by the streamer burst [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

According to recent field studies, almost half of the New Particle Formation (NPF) events occur aloft, in a residual layer, near the top of the boundary layer. Therefore, measurements of the meteorological parameters, precursor gas concentrations, and aerosol loadings conducted at the ground level are often not representative of the conditions where the NPFs take place. This paper presents new measurements obtained during the Turbulent Flux Measurements of the Residual Layer Nucleation Particles, conducted at the Southern Great Plains research site. Vertical turbulent fluxes of 3–10 nm‐sized particles were measured using a sonic anemometer and two condensation particle counters with nominal cutoff diameters of ≥ $\ge $3 nm and ≥ $\ge $10 nm mounted at the top of the 10‐m telescoping tower. Aerosol number size distribution (5–300 nm) was determined through the ground‐based Scanning Mobility Particle Sizers. The size selected (15–50 nm) particle hygroscopicity was derived with the Humidified Tandem Differential Mobility Analyzer. The ground level observations were supplemented by vertically‐resolved measurements of horizontal and vertical wind speeds and aerosol backscatter. The data analysis suggests that (a) turbulent flux measurements of 3–10 nm particles can distinguish between near‐surface and residual‐layer small particle events; (b) sub‐50 nm particles had a hygroscopicity value of 0.2, suggesting that organic compounds dominate atmospheric nanoparticle chemical composition at the site; and (c) current methodologies are inadequate for estimating the dry deposition velocity of sub‐10 nm particles because it is not feasible to measure particle concentration very near the surface, in the diffusion sublayer. Plain Language Summary: The atmosphere is filled with microscopic particles, termed "aerosols." Many of these particles are produced through a complex process known as new particle formation or nucleation. As the particle concentration in the atmosphere has been shown to influence Earth's radiative balance and human health, the formation of new particles from the gas phase is a topic of interest for both climate and air quality sciences. Researchers have identified some factors that influence nucleation events, though none of these factors can explain and predict nucleation consistently. There is evidence that roughly half of the nucleation events detected at ground level originate above the surface, where the process is favored by colder temperatures, lower preexisting particle concentrations, and higher relative humidity. Therefore, ground level measurements may not always be representative of the conditions under which nucleation takes place. The inability to distinguish between ground level and elevated nucleation events is contributing to inconsistencies in our understanding of the factors that influence nucleation. Here, we show that vertical turbulent fluxes of 3–10 nm‐sized particles can be used to distinguish between near‐surface and residual‐layer nucleation. We also show that the existing methodology is inadequate for the estimation of particle dry deposition velocity. We believe these findings will help to better represent aerosols in regional and global climate models. Key Points: Near‐surface/residual‐layer particle nucleation events can be identified by positive/negative turbulent fluxes of 3–10 nm sized particlesHygroscopic diameter growth factor measurements show that organics are dominating sub‐50 nm composition at the Southern Great Plains siteThe eddy‐covariance measurements are inadequate for the estimation of sub‐10 nm particle deposition velocity in most environments [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The persistent Southern Ocean (SO) shortwave radiation biases in climate models and reanalyses have been associated with the poor representation of clouds, precipitation, aerosols, the atmospheric boundary layer, and their intrinsic interactions. Capitalizing on shipborne observations collected during the Clouds Aerosols Precipitation Radiation and atmospheric Composition Over the Southern Ocean 2016 and 2018 field campaigns, this research investigates and characterizes cloud and precipitation processes from synoptic to micro scales. Distinct cloud and precipitation regimes are found to correspond to the seven thermodynamic clusters established using a K‐means clustering technique, while less distinctions are evident using the cyclone and (cold) front compositing methods. Cloud radar and disdrometer data reveal that light precipitation is common over the SO with higher intensities associated with cyclonic and warm frontal regions. Multiple lines of evidence suggest the presence of diverse microphysical features in several cloud regimes, including the likely dominance of ice aggregation in deep precipitating clouds. Signatures of mixed phase, and in some cases, riming were detected in shallow convective clouds away from the frontal conditions. Two of the K‐means clusters with contrasting cloud and precipitation properties are observed over the high‐latitude SO and coastal Antarctica, suggesting distinct physical processes therein. Through a single case study, in‐situ and remote‐sensing data collected by an overflight of the Southern Ocean Clouds Radiation Aerosol Transport Experimental Study were also evaluated and complement the ship‐based analysis. Plain Language Summary: The current generation of climate models and reanalyses products have difficulties in properly representing the radiative balance over the Southern Ocean (SO), which can be traced to the poor understanding of clouds and precipitation processes in this region. The remote location of the SO is a key factor for the lack of field observations that allow the scientific community to address the above‐mentioned problem. However, recent coordinated field campaigns have collected an unprecedented amount of data, offering new opportunities to explore this understudied region. This research paper aims to study clouds and precipitation processes over the SO using shipborne data collected from two field campaigns in 2016 and 2018. Using different synoptic classification techniques, we identify unique macro and micro cloud and precipitation behaviors that correspond to the various weather patterns across a wide range of latitudes. In addition, we use aircraft observations collected from an overflight to evaluate and complement our analysis of the shipborne data. The study offers a framework that may help better understand the nature of the model biases over the SO. Key Points: Distinct cloud and precipitation regimes correspond to the Southern Ocean synoptics, defined using a sounding K‐means clustering techniqueEvidence suggests diverse microphysical features, like mixed phase in shallow convection and ice aggregation in deep precipitating cloudsTwo unique synoptic patterns have unique cloud and precipitation properties over the high‐latitudes, where climate models have large biases [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In response to the comment on our paper "High‐resolution, multilayer modeling of Singapore's urban climate incorporating local climate zones," we provide detailed response to each of the incorrect accusations with scientifically based evidence. We have evaluated our model using all the available observational data, and the results showed good agreement. Our modeling study includes assumptions, as all modeling work does, and we have discussed their rationales and possible implications. Key Points: The published work is a state of the art scientific studyThe commenter's accusations are addressed with facts and scientific evidenceModel limitations acknowledged in the published work are reiterated [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) projections for Europe completed within the EURO‐CORDEX project. Projections are available for the two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP2.6 (22 members) and RCP8.5 (55 members) at 0.11° resolution from 11 RCMs driven by eight global climate models (GCMs). The RCM ensemble results are compared with the driving CMIP5 global models but also with a subset of available last generation CMIP6 projections. Maximum warming is projected by all ensembles in Northern Europe in winter, along with a maximum precipitation increase there; in summer, maximum warming occurs in the Mediterranean and Southern European regions associated with a maximum precipitation decrease. The CMIP6 ensemble shows the largest signals, both for temperature and precipitation, along with the largest inter‐model spread. There is a high model consensus across the ensembles on an increase of extreme precipitation and drought frequency in the Mediterranean region. Extreme temperature indices show an increase of heat extremes and a decrease of cold extremes, with CMIP6 showing the highest values and EURO‐CORDEX the finest spatial details. This data set of unprecedented size and quality will provide the basis for impact assessment and climate service activities for the European region. Key Points: This paper presents the first of this size regional climate model ensemble to investigate and understand the climate change response over the whole of EuropeThe paper confirms previous findings for mean and extreme climate change but is able to show the added value information of the high‐resolution regional ensembleThe paper assesses the regional and global model consensus in the projection and presents also the uncertainty of the signal [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper focuses on the interdecadal variation in drought in Northeast China (NEC) in recent decades. Two dry and wet periods have occurred in the past 61 years (1950–2010). The mechanism underlying the interdecadal variation in drought in NEC is further analyzed; the results indicate that the direct cause is the interdecadal change of the Okhotsk High (OH). A strong (weak) OH is conducive (detrimental) to the convergence of cold air transported by northeast cold vortex and water vapor from the east of NEC, eventually leading to an increase (decrease) in precipitation. Furthermore, we seek to understand why OH displays such an interdecadal variation. The interdecadal increases and decreases in sea ice in the Barents Sea and the Kara Sea explain most of the interdecadal change of the OH. When more sea ice is present in this area, more energy is transferred eastward from the sea ice area to Northeast Asia, weakening the OH; in contrast, less sea ice strengthens the OH. Sensitivity simulations by Community Atmosphere Model, version 4 (CAM4) using sea ice forcing in the Barents Sea and the Kara Sea yield similar results to the observed data, further confirming our conclusion. The results of this paper provide a new understanding of the interdecadal variation in drought in NEC, and it may help to improve our ability to predict drought and provide early warning in the future. Key Points: The drought over Northeast China has significant interdecadal variability during the past decadesThe Okhotsk High acts as the direct factor causing interdecadal changes in NEC drought by affecting atmospheric circulationThe interdecadal increases and decreases in sea ice in the Barents Sea and the Kara Sea can modulate the Okhotsk High changes [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper evaluates the performance of footprint models through a line source (LS) system releasing methane (CH4) measured by an eddy covariance (EC) system in a rice‐wheat rotation agro‐ecosystem. Two footprint models namely Kormann and Meixner (KM) and Flux Footprint Prediction (FFP), are used. The "line source width (LW)" was introduced, which could highly impact the model estimation, leading to an error of ∼500% for the FFP and ∼200% for the KM. The surface roughness length (z0) also affects the FFP estimation, which is much weaker than the effect of LW with a 15% error. An overestimation of 217.8% is observed when the LS is close to the EC system, which reduces to 12.2% when the source stays distant. The analysis of different experimental configurations illustrated that the estimated emission calculated based on footprint model improves with increasing emission height, averaging period, and emission rate. The most accurate estimations are achieved by the configurations of canopy level (CL; 5.5% overestimation), 15 min averaging period (1% underestimation), and moderate emission (ME; 1.9% underestimation), respectively. For KM, the CL‐ME‐30 min setup leads to the best performance, while SL (soil level)‐ME‐15 min is the best configuration for the FFP estimation. A multivariate regression model is proposed to provide preliminary guidance for the footprint model application. The designed LS system is valuable for validating the performance of flux measurements in the specific ecosystems (e.g., grassland, sand land, and forest) as well as other greenhouse gases (e.g., N2O and NH3). Plain Language Summary: A line‐source system, which can automatically simulate methane emission in the paddy fields, was designed to evaluate the performance of eddy covariance footprint models. Different emission heights, emission rates, and source distances were conducted. The result suggested that the outputs of the footprint model improved with increasing emission height and emission rate. The most accurate model estimation was found at the canopy height and the moderate emission. Finally, the range of estimation errors was calculated quantitatively, and a multivariate regression model was proposed to evaluate footprint model performance. The designed line‐source system is also available for validation in other ecosystems, such as grassland and sand land. Key Points: Footprint model estimation improves with increasing source emission height, averaging period, and emission rateSource width and emission distance can significantly affect the model performanceThe most accurate estimations are achieved at the canopy level, 15 min averaging period, and moderate emission [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The interference of electromagnetic signals from lightning discharges in the frequency range below 100 Hz is the source of a global electromagnetic phenomenon in the Earth's atmosphere known as the Schumann resonance (SR). Changes in the parameters of SR signals caused by geophysical disturbances make it possible to study the state and dynamics of the lower ionosphere. When calculating the SR parameters, there are problems associated with the impact of electromagnetic interference of natural and anthropogenic origin. The main natural sources of interference are signals associated with the radiation of nearby lightning discharges, as well as the influence of the Alfvén ionospheric resonator. The paper presents a new method for calculating the SR parameters, which makes it possible to find the spectra distorted by interference, mention above, and exclude them from further processing. The developed technique significantly increased the temporal resolution of the obtained data on the frequency and amplitude of the SR. Due to this, it became possible to study the influence of fast heliogeophysical disturbances (such as solar X‐ray flares) on the lower ionosphere and, as a consequence, on the parameters of the SR. An analysis of the experimental data made it possible to establish a linear dependence of the SR frequency on the logarithm of the X‐ray flux in the range up to 0.2 nm during a class X solar flare. Key Points: A new method for calculating the parameters of Schumann resonance (SR) significantly reduces the impact of electromagnetic interferenceThe developed technique increased the temporal resolution of the SR frequency and amplitude dataThe new technique made it possible to establish the dependence of the SR frequency on the X‐ray flux with a wavelength of less than 0.2 nm [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The joint influence of the stratospheric quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the polar vortex, subtropical westerly jets (STJs), and wave patterns during boreal winter is investigated in 40 years (1979–2018) of monthly mean ERA‐Interim reanalyses. The method of Wallace et al. (1993), https://doi.org/10.1175/15200469(1993)050<1751:ROTESQ>2.0.CO;2 is used to conduct a QBO phase angle sweep. QBO westerly (W) and easterly (E) composites are then segregated by the phase of ENSO. Two pathways are described by which the QBO mean meridional circulation (MMC) influences the northern winter hemisphere. The "stratospheric pathway" modulates stratospheric planetary wave absorption via the Holton‐Tan mechanism. The "tropospheric pathway" modulates the tropical and subtropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. QBO MMC anomalies exhibit a checkerboard pattern in temperature and arched structures in zonal wind which extend into midlatitudes, and are stronger on the winter side. During QBO W, the polar vortex and STJs are enhanced. QBO signals in the polar vortex are amplified during La Niña. During El Niño and QBO W, the strongest STJs occur, and a warm pole/wave two pattern is found. During El Niño and QBO E, a trough is found over Eurasia and a ridge over the North Atlantic, in a wave one pattern. El Niño diminishes QBO anomalies in the tropical stratosphere and reduces the poleward extent and amplitude of the QBO MMC, thereby influencing the stratospheric pathway. Effects on the boreal winter hemisphere are attributed to the combined influence of the QBO and ENSO via both pathways. Plain Language Summary: Seasonal forecasts in the Northern Hemisphere winter can be improved by a better understanding of the influence of two phenomena seated in the tropics: the stratospheric quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO), with periodicity ∼2–3 years, and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with periodicity ∼3–7 years. This paper shows how the QBO and ENSO jointly influence the polar night vortex and tropospheric jet stream. During periods of QBO westerly winds, the polar vortex is stronger and more symmetric, and the tropospheric jet stream is stronger, while during QBO easterlies the vortex and jet stream are weaker. This QBO signal is enhanced during La Niña and is nearly absent during El Niño. Key Points: Two pathways are described by which the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) mean meridional circulation (MMC) influences the northern winter hemisphereThe asymmetric extension of QBO MMC cells into the winter hemisphere is modulated by El Niño Southern OscillationDuring El Niño, the polar vortex anomaly exhibits a wave two pattern for QBO westerly and wave one pattern for QBO easterly [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we coupled a crop growth model to the Weather Research and Forecasting model with its land surface model Noah‐MP and demonstrated the influence of the weather driven crop growth on land‐atmosphere (L‐A) feedback. An impact study was performed at the convection permitting scale of 3 km over Germany. While the leaf area index (LAI) in the control simulation was the same for all cropland grid cells, the inclusion of the crop growth model resulted in heterogeneous crop development with higher LAI and stronger seasonality. For the analyses of L‐A coupling, a two‐legged metric was applied based on soil moisture, latent heat flux and convective available potential energy. Weak atmospheric coupling is enhanced by the crop model, the terrestrial coupling determines the regions with the L‐A feedback. The inclusion of the crop model turns regions with no L‐A feedback on this path into regions with strong positive coupling. The number of non‐atmospherically controlled days between April and August is increased by 10–15 days in more than 50% of Germany. Our work shows that this impact results in a reduction of both cold bias and warm biases and thus improves the metrics of distributed added value of the monthly mean temperatures. The study confirms that the simulation of the weather driven annual phenological development of croplands for the regional climate simulations in mid‐latitudes is crucial due to the L‐A feedback processes and the currently observed and expected future change in phenological phases. Key Points: Coupling a crop growth model with the Weather and Research Forecasting model significantly improves the simulation of the leaf area indexLand‐atmosphere coupling strength is enhanced by weather dependent crop growth simulationThe distributed added value metric shows a reduction in temperature biases of up to 80% in croplands throughout the season in Germany [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water vapor in the middle atmosphere plays an essential role in global warming, ozone depletion, and the formation of polar stratospheric and mesospheric clouds. We show that tropical middle atmospheric water vapor simulated with the specified‐dynamics version of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (SD‐WACCM) is consistent with changes observed in a merged satellite data set, which encompasses the period 1993–2020. Consistent with previous work, we find no significant trend in the stratosphere in either the observations or the simulation; in the mesosphere, we find a long‐term trend of 0.1 ppmv per decade, but only in the observations. We also analyze an SD‐WACCM simulation for the longer period 1980–2019 to quantify the contribution of various factors to the decadal variation of middle atmospheric water vapor. Over 1980–1995, the simulated water vapor in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere, averaged zonally and over ±30° latitude, increases by 0.30 ppmv per decade due to increasing methane emissions. After 1995, a significant abrupt decrease of water vapor of 0.37 ppmv per decade and then a gradual increase of 0.33 ppmv per decade result from changes in stratospheric cold point temperature. The cold‐point temperature is strongly influenced by the strength of the Brewer‐Dobson circulation. The acceleration of the Brewer‐Dobson circulation before about 2003 leads to a cooler tropical tropopause and a decrease of water vapor, and the deceleration thereafter leads to corresponding warming of the tropopause and an increase in water vapor. Plain Language Summary: Water vapor in the middle atmosphere is important to global warming and ozone depletion. We analyze both satellite data and climate model output to understand its variation in the past four decades. We conclude that there is a slight increasing trend in observed mesospheric water vapor, but no significant trend in stratospheric water vapor. Model simulation results indicate that methane oxidation explains most of the increase of water vapor in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere over 1980–1995. Changes in the meridional circulation of the middle atmosphere lead to changes in the tropical tropopause temperature, which is the main factor that influences middle atmospheric water vapor over 1995–2020. Key Points: Our paper focuses on the long‐term trend and decadal variation of water vapor in the tropical middle atmosphereMethane oxidation explains most of the water vapor increases in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere over 1980–1995Changes in residual circulation lead to changes in the tropical tropopause temperature, and middle atmospheric water vapor over 1995–2020 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ocean surface waves play a significant role in regulating the sea surface temperature and mixed layer depth, which are essential for accurate prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity. The effects of wave breaking and wave orbital motion induced mixing on the TC intensity and size are investigated using a coupled ocean‐atmosphere‐wave model for both idealized and real TC cases. The results show that both wave breaking and wave orbital motion lead to greater sea surface temperature cooling and mixed layer deepening, resulting in decreases in TC intensity and size owing to the reduction of air‐sea heat fluxes. Wave orbital motion has a slightly greater effect than wave breaking on the TC intensity and size when the mixed layer is shallow, whereas it has a much greater effect when the mixed layer is deep. In addition, including wave orbital motion induced mixing in models can effectively reduce the error in simulated TC size. Plain Language Summary: Tropical cyclones (TCs) are powerful phenomena with tremendous destructive potential. However, some problems and limitations remain in the prediction of TC intensity and size. The TC system is very sensitive to sea surface temperature (SST), therefore accurate representation of SST is essential for TC forecasting. Surface waves have been found to play a significant role in regulating the SST and mixed layer depth. In this paper, the effects of wave breaking and wave orbital motion induced mixing on TCs are investigated using a coupled ocean‐atmosphere‐wave model. The results show that both wave breaking and wave orbital motion reduce TC intensity and size by reducing the air‐sea heat fluxes, and wave orbital motion has the greater impact. Furthermore, activating wave orbital motion induced mixing in a model improves the accuracy of the simulation of TC size. Key Points: Effects of wave induced mixing on tropical cyclones are investigated using a coupled ocean‐atmosphere‐wave modelBoth wave breaking and wave orbital motion have a negative effect on tropical cyclone intensity and sizeWave orbital motion plays a greater role in modulating the tropical cyclone system than wave breaking [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predicting the peak‐season (July–September) tropical cyclones (TCs) in Southeast Asia (SEA) several months ahead remains challenging, related to limited understanding and prediction of the dynamics affecting the variability of SEA TC activity. Here, we introduce a new statistical approach to sequentially identify mutually independent predictors for the occurrence frequency of peak‐season TCs in the South China Sea (SCS) and east of the Philippines (PHL). These predictors, which are identified from the preseason (April‐June) environmental fields, can capture the interannual variability of different clusters of peak‐season TCs, through a cross‐season effect on large‐scale environment that governs TC genesis and track. The physically oriented approach provides a skillful seasonal prediction in the 41‐year period (1979–2019), with r = 0.73 and 0.54 for SCS and PHL TC frequency, respectively. The lower performance for PHL TCs is likely related to the nonstationarity of the cross‐season TC‐environment relationship. We further develop the statistical approach to a hybrid method using the predictors derived from dynamical seasonal forecasts. The hybrid prediction shows a significant skill for both SCS and PHL TCs, for lead times up to four or 5 months ahead, related to the good performance of models for the sea surface temperatures and low‐level winds in the tropics. The statistical and hybrid predictions outperform the dynamical predictions, showing the potential for operational use. Plain Language Summary: Tropical cyclones (TCs) have huge impact in Southeast Asia (SEA). Seasonal forecasts of SEA peak‐season (July–September) TCs remains challenging for both statistical and dynamical models. In this paper, we introduce a novel statistical approach to sequentially identify independent predictors tailored for the frequency of SEA peak‐season TCs. The predictors are routinely constructed from far‐field sea surface temperatures and low‐level winds in the preceding‐season. The main concept in this approach is that each predictor represents a unique cluster of TC formation and propagation in the peak‐season. We also develop the approach to a hybrid prediction method by building the predictors from dynamical seasonal forecasts. The seasonal predictions based on the new approach perform much better than the current statistical and dynamical models. Such predictions can provide useful warning service for SEA TC activity 4–5 months ahead. Key Points: A new approach to identify independent predictors of Southeast Asia (SEA) tropical cyclone (TC) frequency is introducedThe preceding‐season predictors represent different clusters of TC formation and propagation through a cross‐season effectThe new method outperforms existing statistical and dynamical predictions for SEA TCs [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spatial and angular emission patterns of artificial and natural light emitted, scattered, and reflected from the Earth at night are far more complex than those for scattered and reflected solar radiation during daytime. In this commentary, we use examples to show that there is additional information contained in the angular distribution of emitted light. We argue that this information could be used to improve existing remote sensing retrievals based on night lights, and in some cases could make entirely new remote sensing analyses possible. This work will be challenging, so we hope this article will encourage researchers and funding agencies to pursue further study of how multi‐angle views can be analyzed or acquired. Plain Language Summary: When satellites take images of Earth, they usually do so from directly above (or as close to it as is reasonably possible). In this comment, we show that for studies that use imagery of Earth at night, it may be beneficial to take several images of the same area at different angles within a short period of time. For example, different types of lights shine in different directions (street lights usually shine down, while video advertisements shine sideways), and tall buildings can block the view of a street from some viewing angles. Additionally, since views from different directions pass through different amounts of air, imagery at multiple angles could be used to obtain information about Earth's atmosphere, and measure artificial and natural night sky brightness. The main point of the paper is to encourage researchers, funding agencies, and space agencies to think about what new possibilities could be achieved in the future with views of night lights at different angles. Key Points: Remote sensing using the visible band at night is more complex than during the daytime, especially due to the variety of artificial lightsViews of night lights intentionally taken from multiple angles provide several advantages over near‐nadir or circumstantial view geometriesNight lights remote sensing would benefit from greater consideration of the role viewing geometry plays in the observed radiance [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The planetary boundary layer is crucial for the turbulence mixing and exchange of heat flux, momentum, and atmospheric pollutants between the atmosphere and Earth's surface. Nevertheless, the estimated boundary layer height (BLH) varies greatly by data sources and algorithms. This paper seeks to characterize the convective BLHs from 1‐s radiosonde measurements of China Radiosonde Network (CRN) for the 2012–2020 period at 1400 Beijing time, by using eight well‐known algorithms, wherein the newly established Thorpe method is theoretically fundamental on turbulence analysis and is in remarkable agreement with the parcel and bulk Richardson number methods. BLHs obtained by eight methods, ranging from 1.2 to 2.5 km, strongly vary with methods based on different kinetic or thermodynamic theories. The significant offsets among methods motivate the present study to propose a merged algorithm, to minimize the spread of BLH estimate. The merged BLH contains more physical information than that retrieved from a single method and can significantly lower the uncertainty. The BLH climatology exhibits a spatial pattern of "Southwest‐High Southeast‐Low," ascending from 0.6 km over southeastern China to 2.3 km over southwestern China, which could be largely attributed to the variations in the integrated surface sensible heat flux, soil moisture, total cloud cover, land cover, synoptic forcing, and terrain‐induced flow. Of interest is that land surface properties could be the major driver for the development of CBL. Also noteworthy is that the smallest BLH is expected under the strongest synoptic forcing condition. Plain Language Summary: The planetary boundary layer (PBL), where the exchanges of heat, moisture, momentum, and mass mainly occur with a variety of physical and chemical processes involved, is the lowest part of the troposphere in direct contact with the ground surface. However, the determination of boundary layer height (BLH) tends to be dramatically influenced by the dataset and methods used. Few studies have been conducted to evaluate the discrepancy of nationwide daytime BLH over China originating from the methods used. In particular, eight well‐known methods, including the novel Thorpe method and seven other traditional methods, are applied to estimate BLHs from high‐resolution soundings from the China Radiosonde Network. However, BLH derived by eight methods vary from approximately 1.2 to 2.5 km, strongly depending on the method. Therefore, to compile a more convincing BLH dataset eight methods are selected and composed as a merged BLH. The climatology of the merged BLH for the period 2012–2020 shows a well‐defined "Southwest‐High Southeast‐Low " pattern, which could be attributed to the diversities in sensible heat flux, soil moisture, land cover, total cloud cover, synoptic forcing, and terrain‐induced flow across China. Key Points: The merged boundary layer height (BLH) is synthesized from eight methods and it carries more planetary boundary layer (PBL) information and can considerably lower the uncertaintiesThe "Southwest‐High Southeast‐Low" pattern of BLH could be attributed to land properties, synoptic forcing, and terrain‐induced flowUnder weak synoptic forcing condition the development of convective PBL is more susceptible to the variation of land surface properties [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Atmosphere‐Space Interactions Monitor was designed to monitor Terrestrial Gamma‐ray Flashes (TGFs) and Transient Luminous Events (TLEs) from space, enabling the study of how these phenomena are related. In this paper, we present observations of 17 TGFs with accompanying Elves. TGFs are short and highly energetic bursts of gamma photons associated with lightning discharges, whereas Elves are TLEs that are observed as concentric rings of ultraviolet (UV) and visible light at ionospheric altitudes, produced by the excitation of N2 molecules when an electromagnetic pulse hits the base of the ionosphere. Elves were identified when optical detections in the UV band could be clearly distinguished from other optical signals from lightning strokes. The TGFs they accompanied had short durations and were associated with particularly high peak current lightning. Lightning sferics associated with these events were detected by the global lightning network GLD360 and the World Wide Lightning Location Network, and they were, with the exception of one event, observed over ocean or coastal regions. It is likely that these events were associated with Energetic In‐cloud Pulses. We show that short duration TGFs tend to be associated with higher peak currents than long duration TGFs. Key Points: We present a sample of 17 Terrestrial Gamma‐ray Flashes (TGFs) with accompanying Elves detected by Atmosphere‐Space Interactions MonitorTGFs with Elves are short and associated with very high peak current lightningThe peak currents for these events are higher than for both lightning and TGFs in general [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]