1. Modelling Temporal Uncertainty in Archaeological Analysis.
- Author
-
Crema, Enrico
- Subjects
MATHEMATICAL models ,ARCHAEOLOGY ,GEOLOGICAL time scales ,POPULATION dynamics ,MONTE Carlo method ,SIMULATION methods & models - Abstract
This paper discusses the problem of temporal uncertainty in archaeological analysis and how it affects archaeological interpretation. A probabilistic method is proposed as a potential solution for modelling and quantifying time when high levels of uncertainty restricts temporal knowledge and scientific datings are unavailable, while Monte Carlo simulation is suggested as a means to formally integrate such knowledge into actual analysis. A case study focusing on counts of prehistoric hunter-gatherer pithouses in Mid-Holocene Japan provides an example of how uncertainty can be problematic and bias the results of the most straightforward archaeological analysis and how the coupling of a probabilistic and simulation-based approach nonetheless offers a useful solution. The discussion that follows also addresses the need for more robust and quantifiable ways to illustrate the chronological flow of our archaeological narratives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2012
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